Market Report

Page 1

MIAMI, Florida

4Q-2011

quarterly survey of coastal community sales

Miami

• Overall price indicators edged higher as distressed market share slipped. Median sales price for the fourth quarter was up 10% from the same period last year, but has been stable for past several quarters. The rise in price indicators was largely due to the decline in distressed sales market share, now at 51.1% of all sales, from 60.4% in the same quarter last year.

• Number of sales fell below prior year levels. There were 4,568 sales in the

fourth quarter, the second highest fourth quarter total since the mid-decade market peak. The number of sales was second only to the same period last year, which had experienced an unusual surge in sales due to concerns about the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

• Days on market remained stable as listing discount declined. The average time

Miami Market Matrix

4Q-2011 % Chg (qrt)

3Q-2011

% Chg (yr)

4Q-2010

Average Sales Price

$314,995

-2.2%

$322,072

11.1%

$283,418

Average Price per Sq Ft Median Sales Price

$214

2.4%

$209

13.2%

$189

$165,000

0.0%

$165,000

10.0%

$150,000

4,568

-8.3%

4,979

-6.1%

4,865

72

0.0%

72

1.4%

71

10.1%

10.1%

-7.1%

15,239

N/A

9.2

N/A

Number of Sales (Closed) Days on Market (From Last List Date) Listing Discount (From Last List Price) Listing Inventory (active)

8.7% 14,153

Absorption Rate (mos)

9.3

MIAMI

Quarterly Average Sales Price

Number of Sales

$700,000 $600,000

7,000

$500,000

5,000

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0

4,000

6,000

3,000

06

07

08

to sell a listing was essentially unchanged from the same period last year with 72 days on market. The gap between asking price and sales price declined to 8.7% from 10.1% in the same period last year.

reprieve throughout 2011, as lenders sharply reduced the pace of foreclosures brought into the market. The market share for lower priced Median Sales No. of distressed sales fellPrice sharply to 51.1% of Sales all sales, 5,000 $180,000 CONDOS from 60.4% in the same quarter last year. Despite 4,000 $160,000 the decline in distressed sale market share over 3,000 $140,000 the$120,000 year, the market share of cash purchases 2,000 increased 1,000 $100,000from 61.4% to 64.1%.

The price indicators for the overall market continued to show double-digit price gains, as the market share of lower priced distressed sales, comprised of foreclosures and short sales, continued to decline. The overall median sales price was $165,000, up 10% from $150,000 in the same period last year, and unchanged from the prior year quarter. The “robo-signer” scandal at the end of 2010 gave the housing market a

10 1Q 11 2Q 11between 3Q 11 4Q the 11 0disThe $80,000 lack of4Qdifferentiation tressed and non-distressed markets continued, despite the significant difference in housing Sales Price stock.Median In the fourth quarter, the average size of No. of Sales 2,100 $250,000 a non-distressed condo sale was 24.7% larger 1 FAMILY 2,000 $230,000 than a distressed condo sale, and the average $210,000 1,900 size of a non-distressed single family sale was $190,000 1,800 34.1% larger than a distressed single family $170,000 1,700 sale. $150,000 1,600 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11

The Douglas Elliman Report series is recognized as the industry standard for Median Sales Price No. of Sales providing the state of the residential real$310,000 estate market. The report includes 2,000 NON-DISTRESSED CONDOS 1,600 $290,000 an extensive suite of tools to help readers objectively identify and measure 1,200 market trends, provide historical context$270,000 to current information and provide 800 $250,000 comprehensive analysis of the results. $230,000 400 $210,000 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 0

Median Sales Price $120,000 $110,000

DISTRESSED

No. of Sales

CONDOS

2,500 2,000

09

10

11

2,000 1,000 0

There were 4,568 sales in the fourth quarter, the second highest fourth quarter total since the mid-decade market peak, and 6.1% less than last year’s fourth quarter. The average seasonal decline from third to fourth quarter has averaged 5.7%, yet the prior year quarter showed a 2.2% increase. This was likely due to the rush to close at the then end of 2010 out of concern that the Bush tax cuts might be eliminated. The average number of days on market, the days between the last price change, if any, and the contract date, was 72 days, essentially unchanged from the same quarter last year. The listing discount, the percentage difference from the listing price at time of contract, fell from 10.1% to 8.7%, part of a continuing trend over the past two years.

Median Sales Price

No. of Sales

$350,000 NON-DISTRESSED 1-FAMILY $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11

1,000 800 600

400 200 0

Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc. Appraisal and Consulting Services Median Sales Price No. of Sales DISTRESSED 1-FAMILY $180,000 1,500 $170,000 1,200


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