DMD April-11

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Japan Disaster : Lessons ...

The devastating earthquake of magnitude 9 of 11th March 201z1, which created enormous structural damage to property, assets and infrastructure, and which triggered a powerful tsunami with ten meter high tsunami...

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Cover Story

CONTENTS

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16-18

24-25

Environmental Impact of Japan...

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I had felt many quakes before, but this one did not stop. It grew. For almost three minutes the place was rocking, like being in a rolling boat.

After turning on the TV to see what had...

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06-07

Greatest Tremors

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It is said that environmental disasters are catastrophes that flow directly from human-created risks. Japan has two sorts of earthquakes - the ones when everything sways and lights swing ...

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12-13

08-11

What Japan Brings to India?

It was a dark Friday on 11th March 2011 that Japan - a world leader in disaster preparedness and management was seen helpless in the hands of nature and found no answers to its fury...

28-29

30

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Disaster Management & Development (DMD) welcomes/ invites reaction, suggestions, articles, subscription related enquries from our valued readers.

Please write/ mail us at : The Editor, Disaster management & Development, 1/122, Vijay Khand, Gomti Nagar, Lucknow- 226010, U.P., INDIA e-mail : editor@disastermgmt.in

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

For limited circulation only.

Editor Speaks Dear Readers,

Vol. 1, No. 4

April 2011

Editor-in-Chief Dr. BHANU Managing Editor AP SINGH Editorial Consultant Savita Verma Advisory Board Chaman Pincha, Tamilnadu NM Prusty, New Delhi Dr. AN Singh, Uttar Pradesh Ravindra Nath, Assam Mayank Joshi, Gujarat Vipin Pandey, USA Editorial Team Anil Prakash Arif Shafi Wani Sunita Mall Reeta Tiwari Anjana Singh SK Singh Vijay Vineet Shubhi Chanchal Editorial Office Disaster Management & Development 1/122, Vijay Khand, Gomti Nagar Lucknow- 226010, U.P., INDIA. Tele-Fax : + 91522-2304853 E-mail : editor@disastermgmt.in

Created by Kash Media Planet Pvt. Ltd. E-mail : kashmediaplanet@gmail.com Published by Dr Bhanu on behalf of Poorvanchal Gramin Vikas Sansthan 1/122 Vijay Khand, Gomti Nagar, Lucknow- 226010 and printed at Neelam Printing Press 41/381 Narhi, Lucknow- 226001.

India’s 1st Bilingual Monthly Publication on Disaster Management by

POORVANCHAL GRAMIN VIKAS SANSTHAN e-mail : pgvs.vasudeva@gmail.com

website : www.pgvsindia.org

PGVS Educates Communities & Institutions to Plan for Minimizing Disaster Risk

This issue is being published to take lessons from recent disasters in Japan. We all understand that our science has developed so much that people are planning to build colonies on moon, but at what cost?

We usually say that Climate change, high population growth rates, as well as rapid economic growth and urbanization amplified the specific country's vulnerability to environmental challenges constraining their ability to manage them, but we must not forget that calamities do not follow political boundary.

Let me have a quote from Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), "The natural environment provides the basic conditions without which humanity could not survive."

"Humanity is part of a vast evolving universe. Earth, our home, is alive with a unique community of life. The forces of nature make existence a demanding and uncertain adventure, but Earth has provided the conditions essential to life's evolution. The resilience of the community of life and the well-being of humanity depend upon preserving a healthy biosphere with all its ecological systems, a rich variety of plants and animals, fertile soils, pure waters, and clean air. The global environment with its finite resources is a common concern of all peoples.

The protection of Earth's vitality, diversity, and beauty is a sacred trust." - Earth, Our Home: The Earth Charter When we analyze the issue we find that Global disaster challenges are directly linked with social, economic, political and scientific developmental process. In addition to natural process of earth's evolutionary changes our human behavior against nature are more responsible for ozone depletion, acid deposition, tropical deforestration and increased atmospheric concentration of gases that is trapping heat and warming the planet. The recent multi hazard incident in Japan "earth quake, tsunami and nuclear catasprophe" are clearcut example of our move towards uncertainties.

Our scientific understanding about disasters appears to be grossly inadequate, data are fragmentary and the political moves of various nations which is meant for being custodian of its people and the planet, have limited itself, just for fetching votes probably. Long term plans with firm steps to save the planet earth are still missing from the manefestos of leading political parties of the world.

Environmental laws are least bothered, not known to people. Hyogo Framework for Action prepared six years back, exhausted more than half of its life, are still not very clear to governments, politicians and ofcourse citizens, clearly demonstrate the apathy.

On one hand we say that (as per Asian Development Bank's data) the Asia region's economy has grown at a record pace over the past few decades. In the 1980s and 1990s, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) rose more than 6% annually in East Asia and 3% annually in South Asia, while other developing regions in the world struggled to increase per capita income at all. The region's GDP growth has accelerated again since the Asian financial crisis; from 1999 to 2006, it averaged 6% per year. Asia's share of global exports has soared from 16% in the 1980s to 27% today. It has the largest reserves and the highest savings rate in the world. With such sustained economic progress across many parts of Asia.

Now its high time and we definitely need to monitor all expenditures of nations with the lens of risk reduction or risk enhancement as no investment is risk neutral. We have to establish a holistic and programmatic risk management approach, which communicates disaster risks within the context of development.

An indication of progress is the integration of risk management components in (national and regional) development strategies and address current natural hazards, but also have accounted for climatic changes over time.

Margaret Mead, a cultural anthropologist says that "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." I feel the readers and the contributors of DMD can initiate and join hands of all those who are willing to work on saving the planet and making it the most beautiful for coming generations.

Dr. Bhanu

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 3

Inbox I wish good luck in your endeavour and look foward for a meaningful and productive colloboration in this field.

DC Rana GoI-UNDP DRR Programme, Shimla.

link with social causes. My all the wishes to the editorial team of this magazine. I am eagerly waiting for the next issue.

Dr. M.D. Mishra Principal, JNV, Kushinagar.

Very Informative and Useful

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Congratulations Congratulations on this attempt of the magazine on Disaster Management.

DMD is covering all the aspects of disaster management in a very effective manner and I'm sure it will be a great help in this field.

Many thanks for your publication, "Disaster Management Development", It is very informative and useful. I wish DMD Team my best wishesing this initiative.

You may find the enclosed article, "Bharat ke liye Tsunami ke Sabak" in Hindi of interest and use. We argue for more focus on citizens and ecosystem. Our deep prayers for all people of Japan in this crisis. Japan has the courage to remain calm and address this challenge with strength and foresight.

Mihir Bhatt AIDMI, Ahmedabad.

Articles are very Interesting Dr.Nalini Keshavaraj (Ex Manager -TNTRC), Chennai.

Quite Interesting and Useful Big Congratulations for bringing this much needed magazine. I find it quite interesting and useful. I have read all the three issues DMD. The topics covered are very relevant and information provided are good.

Keep the good work up.

Abdhesh Gangwar Director, CEE, North.

Significant Step Management

in

Disaster

Let me congratulate DMD team to take a significant step in the field of disaster management in this part of the country (Himalayas) which is also known as the water machine for more than half of the country. Undoubtedly Himalayn ecology is witnessing unprecended onslought due to unmindful and usustainable developmental activities and climate change exacerbated by the unscientific and unsustainable exploitation of natural resources.

First of all let me congratulate DMD Team for their efforts in bringing out the magazine, Development. It is indeed a very informative magazine.

Besides providing good reading, the articles are very interesting and all the major issues have been covered.

Previous issues of the magazine dealing with the water problem, Himalayan range and other facets contribute largely in creating awareness among the people. Topical issues such as Japan's nuclear crisis and Tsunami are perhaps the latest issues of concern to all thepeople. keep up your efforts in promoting the magazine.

Tavishi Srivastava Political Editor, The Pioneer, Lucknow.

Great Magazine on DM Congratulations on publishing this magazine. It is very informative and having very good content. DMD Team had published a great magazine on Disaster Management and Development. I have gone through the March-11 issue. All articles have touched all the aspects and it directly

4 Disaster Management & Development • April

2011

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World

Earthquake in China Killed 25

75 killed in Myanmar Earthquake t least 75 people were killed and hundreds left homeless after a strong earthquake hit Myanmar, with fears that the death toll could rise significantly.

Buildings were flattened close to the epicentre while terrified residents fled their homes as tremors were felt as far away as Bangkok, Hanoi and parts of China when the magnitude 6.8 quake hit late on 24th March 2011.

Myanmar state television confirmed a toll of 74 dead and 111 injured.

Nearly 400 homes collapsed in four villages and towns close to the epicentre, the broadcaster said, with nine government offices also destroyed in badly-hit Tarlay town. Several monasteries were also smashed.

Across the border, Thai authorities said a 52-year-old woman was killed in Mae Sai district after a wall in her house collapsed. Sixteen people, including seven Myanmar and five Chinese nationals, were hurt in the quake. In Yangon Chris Herink, Myanmar country director for the charity World Vision, said there were reports that the number of people killed had increased. "The latest unconfirmed number is 140 so it is a worrying trend definitely," he said.

Explaining the high death toll in Myanmar, he said "it's the time of day combined with the severity of the quake and also obviously the construction standards of the homes".

Tarlay, where the hospital collapsed during the quake, was the worst affected township, according to teams in the area.

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"As we go further into these areas we see collapsed houses, broken roads, destroyed monasteries and government buildings," he said.

World Vision helps care for around 7,000 children sponsored by overseas donors in the affected areas and the organisation is seeking out those youngsters as a priority. The charity was able to distribute 1,500 litres of water and food for 1,350 people and Herink said the government had successfully activated its emergency response plans.

A Myanmar official told earlier that "the military, police and local authorities are trying to find some people injured in those affected areas but the roads are still closed". In Myanmar's fledgling parliament, formed after controversial elections in November last year, legislators put forward a proposal for official condolences to those killed in the quake.

A 5.8 magnitude earthquake hit Yingjiang County in southwest China's Yunnan Province, close to Myanmar border in the second week of March'11. At least 25 people have been killed and 250 people injured out of which conditions of 134 people is said to be serious. The U.S. Geological Survey measured the quake at a magnitude of 5.4 and at a deeper 21 miles.

The National Committee of Disaster Reduction, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Yunnan's provincial government have sent 9,700 tents, 15,000 quilts, 15,000 clothes and other relief materials to the quake-hit region, state run Xinhua news agency reported.

The earthquake toppled 1,264 houses or apartments and left 17,658 others seriously damaged, mainly in the county seat near the border with Myanmar, Zhao Yunshan, director with the county government's press office said.

As per an official with the Ministry of Civil Affairs More than 127,100 people have been evacuated to nearby shelters.

As per sources people were buried under debris and part of a supermarket and a hotel caved in.Altogether seven aftershocks, measuring up to 4.7 degrees on the Richter scale, has jolted the quake-prone county since the first tremor.

As per reports, Experts have not ruled out the possibility that stronger quakes might hit the region later and they could not say for sure that the first magnitude-5.8 tremor was the main quake, according to Gu Yishan, an expert with the Yunnan provincial earthquake bureau.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 5

Environment

Environmental Impact of Japan Disaster

By Doug Woodring From Tokyo had felt many quakes before, but this one did not stop. It grew. For almost three minutes the place was rocking, like being in a rolling boat. After turning on the TV to see what had happened, the live shots of the tsunamis came through. You have all seen it, so you know the extent of the damage. Nothing like it. Strangely there was hardly a person in any of the video clips. Japan was prepared, but not for the 6th biggest quake on the planet. The waves came just 15 minutes after the first shock, now revised by the US Geological Survey as a 9.0.

For the next hour, the place rolled,

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swayed, and moved. The first six aftershocks were in the 7 point range. The fact that most of Tokyo was intact was amazing, yet the upper spire of the Tokyo Tower was bent in the serious undulation that one would receive at that elevation, like being at the end of a 200-meter-long whip.

We have now sadly all witnessed a triple hit to Japan, with the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear reactor problems. Amazingly, the country is still calm, organized and patient. If there is one country in the world where civil order, patience and neighborly cooperation is strong, it is in Japan, and this is something for us all to learn from. It is a positive factor in a grim unfolding of events, which at least

6 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

helps to make the search and rescue efforts much easier. It also makes it possible for the government to ask for cooperation with brown-outs and nation-wide energy conservation measures.

The country is still shaking, and the aftershocks are likely to continue for weeks as the fault line readjusts itself.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world gave the stock markets a shock of their own, adding to the fourth ill in the nation's set of issues. This is likely overblown, and actually poses a large opportunity for those who know what Japan is capable of. Unfortunately, the economy in Japan has been in the doldrums for two decades, at least from the point of view of the modern day

Environment this event, Japan will likely come out much stronger than before.

In the mean time, we still have a lot of pain to deal with, as the nuclear reactors do not seem to be stabilizing, and some are predicting that the boiling of some of the cooling water could take a number of days to occur. If that happens, we may still have a long way to go. Again, the similarities between this event and the BP oil spill are shocking.

Those in charge did not set themselves up with the proper processes and solutions for such unexpected events. Transparency has never been a strong point in Japanese business culture, and we even saw the Prime Minister of Japan showing public dismay at the leadership of Tokyo Electric, which runs the Fukushima plant.

Now the world is wondering again about the safety of nuclear power. The Fukushima plant was 40 years old, and the models used to build it did not take into account a tsunami of that magnitude. Backup systems were not well provisioned for, and we are now all learning a critical lesson. We should be thinking about sea wall technology and its capacity to prevent damage. Although these walls may have helped buy a small amount of time for those in its wake, the future

economic and finance mindsets that think that we must always have growth, consumption and short term positive results. Many of these objectives have in fact brought about many of the environmental issues that we all face today.

Japan is an aging society, and it does not have the capacity to keep growing and producing at the same pace it once did. Does this mean that the quality of life there is bad? No, on the contrary. They actually are likely to be leading the way in terms of a new model for many of our countries which are right around the corner on the same demographic and economic growth paths.

If there is anything good to come of this tragedy, it will be the unifying of Japan, and the creation of a new set of leaders who are respected and can get things done. This has not been the case in the past, and change has been needed. With the rebuilding, cooperation and innovation that will come from

one's fault, poses a huge waste issue and hopefully will spur new innovations for recycling and reuse of wood, metal and plastic.

The nuclear events in Japan throw a huge curve ball to those who were banking on nuclear power to be an "easy" way out of the climate change debate. As oil prices rise, and costs for nuclear options increase with revised safety and regulatory measures, the expanded role for other alternative energies should be clear, and acted upon. Nuclear will still be part of the mix, but as with deep sea drilling, the safety and response procedures need to be carefully monitored and updated.

As nuclear was a "silver bullet" meant to help with a big component of the climate change solution, this new problem in Japan will greatly increase the resistance from moving full speed ahead with nuclear options. Even China agreed to halt all of new nuclear plant approvals, in a country where 40 percent of the new world's reactors are supposed to be built. In the meantime, this means more coal.

This disaster in Japan continues to unfold, and support is needed from everyone who can help provide it. We can all use this tragedy to remind us that we are a "passenger' on this planet of ours, and whether it be natural

T h e n u c le a r e v e n t s in J a p a n t h r o w a h u g e c u r v e b a ll t o t h o s e w h o w e r e b a n k in g o n n u c le a r p o w e r t o b e a n "e a s y " w a y o u t o f t h e c li mate change debate. As oil prices rise, and costs for nuclear o p t io n s in c r e a s e w it h r e v is e d s a f e t y a n d r e g u la t o r y m e a s u r e s , t h e e x p a n d e d r o le f o r o t h e r a lt e r n a t iv e e n e r g ie s s h o u ld b e c le a r , a n d acted upon. Nuclear will still be part of the mix, but as with deep s e a d r illin g , t h e s a f e t y a n d r e s p o n s e p r o c e d u r e s n e e d t o b e c a r e f u l l y m o n i t o r e d a n d u p d a t e d . As n u c l e a r w a s a "s i l v e r b u l l e t " m e a n t t o h e lp w it h a b ig c o m p o n e n t o f t h e c lim a t e c h a n g e s o lu t io n , t h is n e w p r o b le m in J a p a n w ill g r e a t ly in c r e a s e t h e r e s is t a n c e f r o m m o v in g f u ll s p e e d a h e a d w it h n u c le a r o p t io n s . design of these walls should be on the minds of all leaders in coastal cities, especially as storm surges and other acts of nature increase in climatechanged waters.

What will the impact be on the marine environment from all of this, in terms of radiation exposure to marine life, and all the debris? This should be of particular longer term concern in terms of marine food sources which Japan and much of the world rely upon. In a strange way, a silver lining here actually exists, as the fear from nuclear radiation in the ocean may reduce the demand for seafood from the Pacific.

Meanwhile, the debris, though no

events, or those made by man, our economy is dependent on our environment, and if we don't respect it, we cannot expect to always prevail. Now we have a chance to gather momentum for increased unified projects and programs which will really put us on the right path to positive change. We seem to forget this, even after BP's spill and the debate on nuclear power.

It is time to take note and really move in a new direction that is sustainable.

Money should not be the issue.

Doug Woodring is the founder of Project Kaisei, a nonprofit dedicated to understanding and solving the problem of marine debris.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 7

Special Report

Japan Earthquake

Greatest Tremors

By Dr Bhanu t is said that environmental disasters are catastrophes that flow directly from human-created risks.

Japan has two sorts of earthquakes - the ones when everything sways and lights swing from side to side, and the really lethal ones, when things bounce up and down.

Japan is land of Earthquakes and Tsunami. It was hit by a massive earthquake on March 11, 2011, that triggered a deadly 23-foot tsunami in the country's north. The giant waves deluged cities and rural areas alike, sweeping away cars, homes, buildings, a train, and boats, leaving a path of death and devastation in its wake.

The United States Geological Survey reported the earthquake and revised

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its magnitude from 8.9 to 9.0, which is the largest in Japan's history. The earthquake struck about 230 miles northeast of Tokyo.

Some tragedies are beyond defenses - be it in Haiti, an impoverished country still struggling to arise from its own devastating earthquake, or Japan, a modern industrial nation that has done all that is humanly possible to prepare for earthquakes, since a 7.9 earthquake destroyed much of Tokyo in 1923. It's a reality shared around the world - in Chile, Indonesia and Australia, all of which have been recent victims of natural disasters.

The devastation of the Second World War aside - was the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. It struck at noon, just as gas burners and charcoal braziers were alight and people made lunch. Tokyo was largely a wooden

8 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

city and the firestorm that followed was even more devastating than the tremors. The flames burned for two days, whirling up and down the river Sumida and being sucked into the open spaces where thousands of people had gathered. In all, some 140,000 people died.

Such disasters have shaped not just the Japanese mentality, but their architecture. The government was eager to make the country as modern as possible, and Tokyo was full of brick and stone buildings. When the earthquake hit, the Western buildings collapsed and the traditional houses didn't: they were lighter and, being made of interlocking parts rather than rigidly cemented into place, could shift with the tremors. Moreover, if they fell down, they did not turn into rubble, but could be put together again.

Impact of March 11 earthquake, tsunami, and the nuclear meltdown Disaster struck again on Saturday, March 12, when about 26 hours after the earthquake, an explosion in reactor No. 1 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station caused one of the buildings to crumble to the ground.

The cooling system at the reactor failed shortly after the earthquake.

Officials feared that a meltdown may occur, and radioactive material was detected outside the plant. These fears were realized on Sunday, when officials said they believed that partial meltdowns occurred at reactors No. 1

Special Report and No. 3. The cooling systems at another plant, Fukushima Daini, were also compromised but the situation there seemed to be less precarious.

More than 200,000 residents were evacuated from areas surrounding both facilities. Problems were later reported at two other nuclear facilities.

By Tuesday, March 15, two more explosions and a fire aggravated the problem. The officials and workers at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station were struggling to regain control of four reactors. The fire, which happened at reactor No. 4, was contained by noon on Tuesday, but not before the incident released radioactivity directly into the atmosphere. The Japanese government told people living within 20 miles of the Daiichi plant to stay indoors, to not use air conditioning, and to keep their windows closed.

At a news conference on Sunday, Prime Minister Naoto Kan emphasized the gravity of the situation. "I think that the earthquake, tsunami, and the situation at our nuclear reactors makes up the worst crisis in the 65 years since the war. If the nation works together, we will overcome," he said. The government called in 100,000 troops to aid in the relief effort. The deployment is the largest since World War II. Natural disasters are not just natural?

The earthquake, the tsunami, and the nuclear meltdown are all wrapped up together as one big human tragedy.

We understand that Natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis are woven into the fabric of the earth's geological systems. There is no way to avoid them, though obviously we can take steps to minimize their impacts. In this modern age with all advancement of science, the horror we saw was terrific and the entire world was showing its helplessness.

We all watched, yet the most we could do for Japan is offer heartfelt sorrow and support. It is unbelievable that in a world in which we can control so much, it is hard to accept that natural disasters are just that - natural.

How safe we are with nuclear inter ventions?

Now we see why all six of the Fukushima Daiichi reactors lost power and the backup generators failed.

Thus these reactors were left in exactly the plight environmental groups predicted in the 1973 hearing. With the risks of catastrophic meltdown looming, Tokyo Electric found itself with

neither the time nor the capacity to implement "various corrective actions." In desperation, the Japanese military resorted to dropping seawater via helicopter, and Japanese police re-purposed water cannons from riot control to reactor cooling. (These measures remind us to similarly failing attempts to cap the gushing Macondo well. The BP oil spill, which killed 11 workers and created one of the worst environmental disasters in United States history, same to be true in Japan. In both disasters, the economic, human and environmental toll is still being tallied, but will be immense.

Lets ask ourselves, why are we finding out that there is no Plan B, only after disaster has struck? It is foreseeable that a nuclear plant in an earthquake zone might lose power, and that its auxiliary backup generators might fail.

In fact, not only were these disasters foreseeable, they were actually foreseen. It has been three decades since scientists inside the Nuclear Regulatory Commission first warned of design flaws in the Mark I reactors used in Fukushima. And, the scenario unfolding there is precisely the situation that Dr Pittman so blithely dis-

missed in 1973-- that of a catastrophic accident causing the kind of containment system used at the Fukushima Daiichi facility to fail, subjecting everything and everyone nearby to dangerously high radiation.

How does this disaster fit with industry assurances that nuclear power is safe and clean?

It turns out the roots of this crisis date back to a 1973 decision by the Atomic Energy Commission's (predecessor agency to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) that "the environmental effects of the uranium fuel cycle have been shown to be relatively insignificant." In 1978, the United States Supreme Court upheld this decisionshutting the door to rigorous assessment of the environmental threats from spent nuclear fuel. At issue in the case, Vermont Yankeev. NRDC, was the AEC's fuel cycle rule-which had concluded that the environmental effects of spent fuel rods would be so negligible that they could safely be disregarded. At a 1973 hearing on this fuel cycle rule, environmental groups raised the question of what would happen if a disaster caused the water cooling system for a spent rod storage

Japan at a Glance

apan is a developed Island having Land area: 152,411 sq miles (394,744 sq km); and total area: 145,882 sq miles (377,835 sq km). The estimated Population (2010) is 126,804,433 (growth rate: -0.24%) with a birth rate of 7.4/1000 and infant mortality rate 2.8/1000. The life expectancy is 82.1 and population density of 339 per sq km. The Literacy rate is 99% (2002 est.). It has GDP/PPP (2009 est.): $4.13 trillion; per capita $32,600.

The main cities are Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya, Sapporo, Kobe, Kyoto, Fukuoka, Kawasaki, Hiroshima, The Language spoken is Japanese, and the reaces are Japanese 99%; Korean, Chinese, Brazillian, Filipino, other 1% (2004), major religion is Shintoist and Buddhist 84% and others 16% (including Christian 0.7%).

They celebrate National Holiday on Birthday of Emperor Akihito on December 23.

J

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 9

Special Report

facility to fail. Speaking for the agency, Dr. Frank Pittman responded that it would take a week for the cooling water to boil away, allowing time for "various corrective actions" to be taken. These corrective actions remained conveniently unspecified.

The quintessential example comes from Japan itself: in 1995, an earthquake levelled the port city of Kobe, which at the time was a manufacturing

hub and the world's sixth-largest trading port. The quake killed sixty-four hundred people, left more than three hundred thousand homeless, and did more than a hundred billion dollars in damage (almost all of it uninsured).

There were predictions that it would take years, if not decades, for Japan to recover. Yet twelve months after the disaster trade at the port had already returned almost to normal, and within

How Prepared Are We? Community Preparedness is a Pre-requisite for National Preparednes Our Indian national vision for managing disaster is, building a safe and disaster resilient India by developing a holistic, proactive, multi-disaster oriented and technology driven strategy through a culture of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response.

Our Vulnerabilities are multiple India is vulnerable, in varying degrees, to a large number of natural as well as man-made disasters. 58.6 per cent of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity; over 40 million hectares (12 per cent of land) is prone to floods and river erosion; of the 7,516 km long coastline, close to 5,700 km is prone to cyclones and tsunamis; 68 per cent of the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought and hilly areas are at risk from landslides and avalanches. Vulnerability to disasters/ emergencies of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) origin needs to be understood better way seeing Japan catastrophe 11-3-11. The main Nuclear Power Plants in India are Tarapur Atomic Power Station, Tarapur, Maharashtra; Rajasthan Atomic Power Station, Rawatbhata, Rajasthan; Madras Atomic Power Station, Kalpakkam, Chennai; Narora Atomic Power Station, Narora, Uttar Pradesh; Kakrapar Atomic Power Station, Kakrapar, Gujarat; Kaiga Atomic Power Station, Kaiga, Karnataka; Jaitapur nuclear power project - Maharashtra; Koodankulam Nuclear Power

10 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

fifteen months manufacturing was at ninety-eight per cent of where it would have been had the quake never happened. On the national level, Japan's industrial production rose in the months after the quake, and its G.D.P. growth in the following two years was above expectations. Similarly, after the Northridge earthquake, in 1994, the Southern California economy grew faster than it had before the disaster. A recent FEMA study found that after Hurricane Hugo devastated Charleston, in 1989, the city outpaced growth predictions in seven of the following ten quarters. And the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, despite its enormous human toll, may have actually boosted the economy's growth rate.

Even if Japan's nuclear crisis is contained, its earthquake and tsunami now seem certain to be, economically speaking, among the worst natural disasters in history, with total losses potentially as high as two hundred billion dollars. The economist Eduardo Cavallo and Ilan Noy have recently suggested, in developed countries even major disasters "are unlikely to affect economic growth in the long run." Modern economies, it turns out, are adept at rebuilding and are often

Plant and Bhabha Atomic Research Centre.

In the context of human vulnerability to disasters, the excluded and marginalised community, economically and socially weaker segments of the population are the ones that are most seriously affected. Within the vulnerable groups, elderly persons, women, children - especially women rendered destitute and children orphaned on account of disasters and the differently abled persons are exposed to higher risks.

Our Three Tier System of National Disaster Preparedness • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), headed by the Prime Minister.

• State Disaster Management Authorities (SDMAs) headed by the Chief Ministers.

• District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) headed by the Collector or District Magistrate or Dy Commissioner.

Our Approach The paradigm shift, from the erstwhile relief-centric response to a proactive prevention, mitigation and preparedness-driven approach for conserving developmental gains and also to minimise losses of life, livelihoods and property. We have six elements of preparedness and support service national commitment: the pre-disaster phase includes prevention, mitigation and preparedness (PMP), while the post-disaster phase includes response (3R), rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery.

Our Responsibilities (as per our National DM Policy) The NDMA is mandated to deal with all types of disasters, natural or man-made. Whereas, such other emergencies including those requiring close involvement of the security forces and/or intelligence agencies such as terrorism

Special Report startlingly resilient.

These were all monumental catastrophes, and yet, a couple of years after the fact, domestic growth rates showed little sign that they had happened. The biggest reason for this, as the economist George Horwich argued, is that even though natural disasters destroy physical capital they don't diminish the true engines of economic growth: human ingenuity and productivity. With enough resources, a damaged region can reconstruct itself with surprising speed. Although the Northridge quake demolished the Santa Monica Freeway, it reopened after just sixty-six days. Healthy economies are by definition adaptive: in the case of Kobe, other Japanese ports picked up the slack until it was back on line. And, because governments generally flood disaster areas with money, there's no dearth of cash for new investments.

In a study of eighty-nine countries, the economists Mark Skidmore and Hideki Toya, after controlling for every variable they could think of, found that countries that suffered more climatic disasters actually grew faster and were more productive. This seems bizarre: it's close to the broken-win-

dows fallacy identified by the nineteenth-century economist Frédéric Bastiat-the idea that breaking windows is economically useful, because it makes work for glaziers. But Skidmore and Toya argue that disaster-stricken economies don't simply replace broken windows, as it were; they upgrade infrastructure and technology, and shift investment away from older, less productive industries.

(After the Kobe quake, the city's plastic-shoe factories never returned.) In Horwich's somewhat ruthless phrase, disasters can function as a form of "accelerated depreciation." Something similar often happens on the level of the individual consumer: homeowners rebuilding after a disaster take the opportunity to upgrade, a phenomenon known as "the Jacuzzi effect." In ordinary times, inertia keeps old technologies in place; it may be easier to make dramatic changes when you have to start from scratch.

Geological disasters vs Climatic disasters Still, the impact of any given disaster depends on a variety of factors.

Skidmore and Toya have found that geological disasters don't seem to have the same effects on growth rates

(counter-insurgency), law and order situation, serial bomb blasts, hijacking, air accidents, Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) weapon systems, mine disasters, ports and harbour emergencies, forest fires, oil field fires, and oil spills will continue to be handled by the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC).

• National Executive Committee (NEC) comprises the Union Home Secretary as the Chairperson.

• State Executive Committee (SEC), headed by the Chief Secretary.

As disaster management is a multi-disciplinary process, all Central Ministries and departments will have a key role in the field of disaster management. The nodal Ministries and departments of Government of India (i.e. the Ministries of Agriculture, Atomic Energy, Civil Aviation, Earth Sciences, Environment and Forests, Home Affairs, Health, Mines, Railways, Space, Water Resources etc.) will continue to address specific disasters as assigned to them.

Administration may call Armed Forces, Central Para Military Forces, State Police Forces and Fire Services, Civil Defence and Home Guards, State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) etc as per requirement.

All ministries shall have disaster vulnerability based developmental plans and NDMA will ensure mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction in developmental agenda.

The planning commission has provisioned National Disaster Response and Mitigation Funds for addressing disaster risks.

National Disaster Response Fund (NDR Fund) applied by the National Executive Committee (NEC) towards meeting the expenses for emergency response, relief and rehabili-

as climatic disasters. And growth rates seem to be resilient only for relatively wealthy, well-run countries, which can raise money easily and administer reconstruction funds efficiently.

In poor countries, by contrast, disasters are doubly disastrous, they often do more damage to begin with, since infrastructure is in such woeful shape, and the damage is harder to repair.

Haiti's economy has shrunk more than eight per cent since the earthquake last year, and much of the country remains in rubble.

Furthermore, it's important to remember that even cities that do successfully rebuild still lose enormous amounts of capital. In that sense, the biggest economic effect of disasters is to redistribute resources rather than create them. Disasters redistribute money from taxpayers to construction workers, from insurance companies to homeowners, and even from those who once lived in the destroyed city to those who replace them. It's remarkable that this redistribution can happen so smoothly and quickly, with devastated regions reinventing themselves in a matter of months. But that doesn't make the devastation any less real.

tation, (as per guidelines by the Central Government in consultation with the NDMA).

National Disaster Mitigation Fund (NDM Fund) created for projects exclusively for the purpose of mitigation. NDMF shall be applied by the NDMA and shall be as recommended by the Finance Commission from time to time.

Techno-Financial Regime Considering that the assistance provided by the Government for rescue, relief and rehabilitation and reconstruction needs, may not compensate for massive losses on account of disasters, new financial tools such as catastrophic risk financing, risk insurance, catastrophe bonds, micro-finance and insurance etc will be promoted with innovative fiscal incentives to cover such losses of individuals, communities and the corporate sector.

Actions for effective emergency response Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Mapping, Forecasting and Early Warning Systems, Strengthening of the Emergency Operations Centres, Medical Preparedness and Mass Casualty Management, Training, Simulation and Mock Drills, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), community preparedness as communities are the first responders [The elderly, women (esp pregnants and lactating), children and differently abled persons require special attention] It appears very attractive when we talk of our plans but it requires citizens watchfulness and alertness to make it happen. We can take lesson from Japan that the effective warning system helped in evacuation of hundreds of thousands of persons from buildings in 90 seconds with well prepared community, what will happen to us who are least prepared.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 11

Lessons

What Japan Brings to India?

By Anil K Sinha t was a dark Friday on 11th March 2011 that Japan - a world leader in disaster preparedness and management was seen helpless in the hands of nature and found no answers to its fury. A tsunami had struck north-east coast Japan near the city of Sendai, following a powerful earthquake of magnitude 8.9 on Richter scale (approximately 1400 times stronger than the Great Hanshi-Awazi earthquake which had hit Kobe on 17thJanuary 1995). The epicenter of the earthquake was 380 km northeast of Tokyo near Sendai city in Pacific Ocean.

Minutes after the earthquake, there was an extremely destructive tsunami with waves of up to 10 meters and travelling at jet speed of nearly 800 kmph causing great devastation and destruction on its way.As per current estimates available over 10 thousand people are feared killed due to earthquake and tsunami and many more

I

missing and unaccounted. Radiation from affected nuclear reactors at Fukushima also added to the gravity and complexity of the situation in Japan.

Unfortunately, Japan is the only nation to have suffered the worst in human history when atom bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during Second World War. But it also goes to its credit that within a couple of decades it recovered from nearly total devastation to become world's third largest economy by 2010. The latest is also perhaps the worst complex disaster faced by any country in the history of natural disasters.

It may be interesting and relevant to recall here that thirty years ago loss of lives in developing and developed countries was more or less of the same level. But with years of dedicated and focusedwork in all segments of the society, today the loss of human life due to a large earthquake in Japan has been reduced and minimized

12 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

drastically, while it has enhanced many fold in many developing countries like ours. There is urgent need for us to learn from the 'culture of preparedness and response' combined with resilience that Japan has developed to disasters and how efficiently it is bouncing back to normalcy. A disaster of this magnitude and impact would have taken decades to recover from, for any developing country and most of the countries in Asian region including India. Japan has long and continued history of disasters and especially earthquakes and has accordingly developed its resilience and preparedness through both structural and nonstructural measures. This disaster was also unique as it brought multiple disasters and each being more disastrous than other. Present and future impacts of disasters are still not certain despite best efforts from Japanese authorities.

Though exact estimation of losses and deaths are yet to come, apparently Japan looks to have much better control over the situation than many other countries and this was visible right through the beginning of the impact.

There are some good practices and lessons that emerge from earthquake and tsunami. All stakeholders were prompt in carrying out their designated responsibilities which resulted in fast and efficient rescue and response to the needy. National and local authorities were prompt in responding to the catastrophe. Media, other agencies and even community seemed to know their duties and responsibilities and were seen exactly doing that instead of creating any panic or chaos.

There are two most important issues to be looked into in the context of structural measures to mitigate tsunami disasters in India. We should review land use rules in coastal areas and their effective implementation.

Another important issue to be considered is to strengthen Tsunami Early Warning System and relate it to the communities living in coastal areas through public awareness and education as to how to respond in an organized manner in different situations.

Japan could save thousands of lives and damage to important establishments through their effective early warning system.

Another interesting an important

Lessons observation is on the role of media during this disaster. With extensive network of closed circuit televisions (CCTVs) Japan already has extensive video coverage of the whole incident which is available to the government and all others. This shows their preparedness which would not only capture such events but could be helpful in ensuring control over other mischievous acts. If we look from disasters angle, such extensive coverage would help in correct assessment of losses and damages of both lives and properties and can help in conducting rescue and relief operations as well.

Their usefulness in long term recovery process too is unquestionable. We have not seen any hype or sensation being created by any media. They have been highly responsible and committed to their jobs observing highest of professional and ethical norms. It was very interesting and inspiring to see in one of the early videos of NHK, their national TV, an employee trying to type and despatch last bit of information relating to the disaster even while his colleagues were already ducking under the tables to save themselves from the impact of earthquake.A similar and measured response would be expected from all media agencies in all countries including India.

People of Japan have also shown extraordinary courage in facing this unprecedented calamity. They are disciplined, calm and aware of their roles and measures to be taken in such situation. From whatever information and visuals available, neither did they 'freeze' nor got into any 'panic

Atsushi Koresawa, Executive Director of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center, Kobe, Japan in a mail last week observed as below: "Last week's earthquake and the subsequent tsunami have remind ed us once again that our society is still vulnerable to the fury of nature.

While the earthquake was predicted to occur around that region, the s c a le w a s w e ll b e y o n d o u r p r e paredness. This resulted in human casualties that have reached record levels. Search and rescue teams are saving survivors even today.

Thousands of people are still miss ing and many others are waiting for aid and emergency supplies. Our priority is getting to those survivors, providing for them and recovering the bodies.

Recovery and rebuilding will start shortly. It will take many years. It is important for Japan to maintain its strength and solidarity while making steady progress. Although the catastrophe has had a large impact on our society, Japanese people remain calm and cooperative. I think this is exactly what we need at this challenging time - a trust in our society's resilience." or over reaction', as most people in many of the countries would do in such circumstances. They rather knew about what best can be done in such a situation. They knew what to do and most importantly how to do.

And this comes not instantly but has to be cultivated as a culture with decades of hard work in the form of recurrent training programmes combined with regular mock drills and rehearsals. We, as a community,

Most Important Points of Disaster Preparedness Keeping 11/3/11 as a Benchmark

System's Readiness encompasses those governmental and institutional efforts to prevent, respond to, or recover from a catastrophic event. From a public health perspective, systems have to be prepared to address the ordinary as well as the extraordinary needs of sufferer community.

Health care supply chains of trained providers, supplies, and medications have to be equally prepared to handle chronic diseases, child birth and preventive care as they are crush injuries, specialized surgical capabilities, and unusual infectious disease outbreaks.

need to learn from such examples and do our best to face such a situation.

Given the focal role of schools in our society it provides an ideal setting and environment to develop and cultivate the 'culture of preparedness' and that is what will exactly lay the foundation of reducing risks leading to a resilient and safe society. It is important to combine theoretical knowledge with practical awareness- skills with exercises, training, rehearsals and drills on a regular basis in a campaign mode will sow the seeds of a society which is better prepared and is able to bounce back quickly. Structural safety of school buildings, no doubt, is another important aspect which is required to be enforced.

The excerpts of Koresawa (see box), not only shows that the impact of this disaster was beyond their preparedness but also shows the confidence they have in their strength and ability to recover from such a disaster. We would know more about extent of damages and how Japan in coping with that but from whatever information available, we have a lot to learn from their experience and be prepared for eventualities in future.

Given our close ties and long relations with Japan let us pray and wish them all strength, foresight and fortitude to cope with another complex disaster of unprecedented proportions in human history.

(Input Support by Anuj Tiwari) Anil K Sinha, IAS (Retd.) is the Vice-Chairman, Bihar State Disaster Management Authority (BSDMA) & Anuj Tiwari is the Head (Projects), Global Forum for Disaster Reduction (GFDR).

Community Consciousness can reduce some of a disaster's most serious consequences, including the public health impacts.

Acute Survival Window for trapped or injured survivors with all emergency facilities.

Vulnerable persons first.

WASH related Facilities.

Alternate arrangement for Critical infrastructure failures, such as the widespread destruction of the electrical power grid, or more catastrophically, a nuclear power plant meltdown, could lead to more disasterous situation than main hazard.

Care of Psycho-social consequences and behavioral and emotional issues.

Host Community preparedness/support for taking care of neighboring disaster affected populationvictims. Regional planning and coordinated activity are essential in such a circumstance.

DMD Bureau Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 13

Analysis

Nuclear Energy: Boon or Bane?

By Vikas Gora midst the drama of the worst seismic catastrophe in Japan's recorded history, the Japanese government and its nuclear industry have been struggling to meet their greatestever challenge: preventing a power reactor core melt accident similar to that which occurred at Three Mile Island in the United States three decades ago. The scope of this challenge to Japan is almost inconceivable. When a force 9.0 earthquake struck off the Pacific coast on Friday, March 11, two nuclear power stations, Fukushima-Daiichi and FukushimaDaini, with a total of ten reactors, suffered a loss of external power. Shortly after the seven operating reactors at these stations shut down automatically in response to the shock, emergency cooling systems-needed to remove decay heat from the reactors' radioactive fuel-ceased operating.

Without external power, the cooling systems were reliant on local backups that, according to Japanese experts, were damaged by the devastating tsunami that followed the earthquake.

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The Japanese authorities and the plant's utility owner have been implementing a strategy to provide backup power and coolant water to the beleaguered reactors. The objective is to lower the temperature and pressure inside the reactor vessels, assure that the fuel is covered by water, avert significant fuel melting, and minimize the consequences if it does occur.

However the situation in Japan opens up a plethora of questions on nuclear safety in the world. This is more so relevant in developing countries aspiring for nuclear energy.

Safety concerns must not take a back seat to energy production or prestige For many newcomer nuclear countries -especially those facing dire energy needs - the temptation may be great to get new nuclear power plants on line as fast as possible. Critical aspects of nuclear programs that won't contribute to profits or generate power, such as spent fuel and waste management and emergency preparedness, cannot be neglected by governments and industry leaders aiming to achieve fast results or save money.

In just a week, the world's nuclear outlook seems to have undergone a dramatic change, following the crisis in Japan's reactors. And in public at

14 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

least, the Indian government, echoing sentiments elsewhere in the world, has talked of 'safety reviews' and 'reassessments.' Ashwani Kumar, Minister of State for Earth Sciences and Science and Technology, said, "The tragedy in Japan reinforces the need to strengthen in every possible way the security of our civil nuclear installations against earthquakes and natural disasters. The government of India will take all steps in this direction."

The government has already decided that the safety of the 20 existing reactors in India will be reassessed afresh in view of the incidents in Japan resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 9 on the Richter scale.

Germany already shut down nuclear plants for a safety review. France will too. I'm sure Japan will completely overhaul its system. Even Russia said they will review plants to insure nothing has been overlooked.

Sitting on a hazard According to the European Nuclear Society, as of Jan 19, 2011 in 30 countries 442 nuclear power plant units with an installed electric net capacity of about 375 GW are in operation and 65 plants with an installed capacity of 63 GW are in 16 countries under construction.

Global Ripples from the Japanese Disaster What can we learn from this calamity, which is both the first major nuclear accident resulting from a natural disaster and the first serious simultaneous failure of multiple reactors? For the anti-nuclear camp, it will surely

Analysis mean that we ought to throw in the towel on nuclear power completely -nothing less. For the fervent advocates of nuclear power, it will mean instead that we just ought to accept that "stuff happens" sometimes. That might seem like a tough sell.

The world community and the antinuclear activists are raising their voice and maintaining that the nuclear crisis that Japan is experiencing right now, can happen anywhere for other reasons.

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Fukushima accident was precipitated by an earthquake and tsunami, but the direct cause appears to have been a loss of both off-site and on-site power supplies, a situation known as a station blackout.

There are many other types of initiating events that could cause such a situation, including terrorist attacks.

The most important lesson that the world must learn from Japan's present nuclear meltdown, following the mega earthquake and tsunami, is that building more nuclear plants even for peaceful purposes is not a safe option.

This situation shows that we can never prepare for every scenario. Even though Japan is the most earthquake prone country in the world and nuclear plants there were designed to withstand earthquakes, they were not ready for an earthquake of that

strength, or a possible tsunami.

Most nuclear power plants in the world are not built in earthquake prone areas; however, it does not mean that other emergencies cannot cause a similar crisis by shutting down the power needed to cool the reaction rods. Hence there is a global voice for alternative sources of energy using wind and solar, which are particularly relevant to South Asian countries where there is abundance of both.

Reasons to Oppose Nuclear Power Accidents: As the situation in Japan demonstrates, natural events (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes), which we have no control over, can create havoc due to the instability and toxic content of nuclear power plants.

Terrorism: Nuclear power plants are prime targets for terrorist organizations. waste: Waste from nuclear power plants will be toxic for more than 100,000 years.

Environmental impact: The most important natural resource we have is water, and it is being poisoned and depleted at an increasing rate.

Nuclear power uses more water than any other form of power generation: nuclear power takes 40,000 gallons per megawatt whereas wind energy uses just 2,000 gallons. This resource cost will increase as the supply of

Do's and Don'ts in Nuclear Accident Nuclear accidents such as Fukushima have made many a person thoughtful as to how to react correctly in the worst case. Most cases of exposition to nuclear radiation come about due to false reactions during the first few hours.

Usually, nuclear accidents spread throughout the media within minutes and hours. Residents nearby are the first that need to react - nearby meaning everyone in a circumference of several hundred kilometres.

As soon as you hear of a nuclear accident, close all doors and windows and make sure air can't get inside through other openings.

The danger consists in radioactive elements in the air you wouldn't be able to sense while inhaling them.

They would then enter into the human body and start causing damage soon after finding the way in.

Most nuclear accidents will not actually endanger residents several hundreds of kilometres away, however for safety reasons even they should make sure nothing can happen for sure.

Having found a safe refuge, turn on the TV or the radio or search online for news on the accident.

Thanks to modern means of communication, up-to-

clean water steadily declines and population increases.

Not enough sites: Nuclear power plants must be located near large supplies of water, so drought (a more common occurrence with climate change) can reduce their productivity or shut them down.

Not enough "Clean" Uranium: The recoverable supply of worldwide uranium-nuclear power's fuel-is dwindling. Scientists have shown that if we tried to generate all of the world's electricity with nuclear power, we would run out of uranium in ten years.

Not enough time: We must find lesspolluting energy sources during the next decade if we want to avoid catastrophic climate chaos. Whereas distributed renewables (wind and solar) can be built quickly, nuclear power plants are notorious for taking long periods of time to finance and build.

Thus, everybody ought to be informed well before in order to know what exactly to do.

References: International Atomic Energy Agency: www.iaea.org, Global Security.org Nuclear News: www.world-nuclear-news.org, Nuclear Energy News: www.nuclearenergynews.com, Science Daily: www.sciencedaily.com Energy, Locate: www.energylocate.com (The Writer is a freelance international development, DRR and CSR Training Consultant. He has worked in Japan for four years).

date news will reach you almost immediately and keep you informed on what to do.

In many cases authorities will likely tell you to take iodine tablets if available to protect your thyroid gland.

While most reports will concentrate on the on-site goings-on, the regional news will inform the population on what to do.

The best sources are the local TV and radio stations, or the homepage of the regional newspaper. Until you get further information, do not leave the house under any circumstances.

Soon after the nuclear accident it's vital to look out for symptoms of illness in yourself and those around you, as they can endanger you, too.

First symptoms of too high nuclear exposition would be headaches, sickness, and vomiting.

If they occur soon after the nuclear accident, you must seek the help of a doctor immediately.

The doctor can segregate the contaminated persons and make sure the exposition to nuclear radiation doesn't severely damage their health.

The first symptoms will vanish soon after appearing, however different symptoms will come into being a few weeks later.

Extreme fatigue, lack of appetite, and similar problems will occur and make medical help and observation inevitable.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 15

Cover Story

Japan Disaster

Lessons for I

16 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

India

Cover Story

By Prof. N. Vinod Chandra Menon he devastating earthquake of magnitude 9 of 11th March 201z1, which created enormous structural damage to property, assets and infrastructure, and which triggered a powerful tsunami with ten meter high tsunami waves which travelled in some places 10 km inland in the North eastern coastal areas of Japan, is estimated to be the strongest ever earthquake recorded in Japan and fifth largest in the world since 1900. This megathrust earthquake had it's epicenter about 130 kilometers off the east coast of the Oshika peninsula, Tohoku, with the hypocenter at a depth of 32 km (20 miles). This earthquake has been reportedly eight thousand times more powerful than the earthquake which rocked Christchurch in New Zealand in February 2011.

While the initial estimates place the economic damages caused by the earthquake and tsunami at about US$ 235 billion, the run in the Japanese stock markets following the tsunami have created an erosion of about US$ 233 billion during the three days of trading after the earthquake and the tsunami. The Bank of Japan has offered US$ 183 billion to the banking sector to normalize market conditions.

The earthquake and tsunami left 4.4 million households in Northeastern Japan without electricity and about 1.4 million households without water. 450,000 people have been shifted to temporary relief shelters. About 200,000 people have been evacuated around a 20 km radius of the Fukushima Nuclear Plants which faced partial meltdown and people in a 30 km radius have been advised to stay at home to avoid radiation exposure.

According to Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, described the earthquake and tsunami of 11th March 2011 as "the toughest and most difficult crisis in Japan in the 65 years after the end of World War II". The earthquake moved Honshu by 2.4 meters east and shifted the earth on it's axis by almost 10 cm. This was confirmed by the network of 1500 GPS stations in Japan. However, according to Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, the earthquake in Japan shifted earth's axis by 25 centimeters (9.8 inches) and increased the speed of rotation of the earth, shortening the day by 1.8 microseconds due to the redistribution of the earth's mass.

Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan The seismic monitoring instruments are installed in Japan to cover every 15 miles so that they can alert neighbouring communities for evacuating their homes, offices, schools and other public buildings. The Japanese early warning system was made online in 2007, to disseminate alert and early warning messages through television and radio and to special receivers in homes, offices and schools. Mobile phone service providers alert subscribers with an audible alarm. Bullet trains, nuclear installations and other critical infrastructure facilities are shut down on receipt of an early warning alert message or on ground shaking.

The main earthquake was preceded by a number of large foreshocks from 9th March 2011 onwards. One minute before the earthquake impact was felt in Tokyo, the earthquake early warning system connected to more than

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Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 17

Cover Story 1,000 seismometers in Japan sent out the warning on television which alerted millions of viewers. The S waves travelling at about 4 km per second took 90 seconds to reach Tokyo covering a 373 km distance. This saved several hundreds of thousands of people who came out into the streets and escaped to large open grounds away from falling debris.

In spite of the devastating impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, what stands out as most impressive is the dignity with which the Japanese people have responded after the disaster. The behaviour of Japanese people in the face of this tragic event has been most dignified, without anger or bitterness, but with tremendous integrity and character, extending a helping hand to those in need of help and support, forgetting their own loss and grief.

The radiation leak in Fukushima has raised the concerns of safety in nuclear installations when even one of

the most prepared nations in the world, which even now has the scars of the nuclear holocaust of the World War II, found the situation as challenging. Here again, the selfless missionary zeal of the fifty workers who stayed behind to cool the reactors without worrying about the potential risks of exposure to nuclear radiation stands out as a sterling example of courage and commitment.

The Lessons for India Firstly, the structural safety of critical infrastructure facilities like nuclear installations, dams, power supply and telecommunication facilities, flyovers, railway bridges etc. needs to be audited to ensure that the vulnerable facilities which are likely to collapse in the event of a high intensity earthquake are identified and seismically strengthened and retrofitted on priority.

Secondly, the nuclear radiation exposure in the areas closer to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plants and in the neighbouring cities after the

explosions and the partial meltdowns after the earthquake and the tsunami has revealed the vulnerability of even highly prepared countries in dealing with extreme events and worst case scenarios.

Thirdly, the relatively fewer numbers of casualties in Japan from a 9 magnitude earthquake, compared to the 7 magnitude earthquake which took the lives of over 300,000 people in Haiti in January 2010, is a sterling example of the strength of enforcement and strict compliance of earthquake-resistant building codes as well as sound mitigation and disaster risk reduction efforts by government agencies, local government officials, earthquakeprone communities and the building industry professionals.

Fourthly, the experience of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan has to be seen as a wake up call to countries like India to carry out risk assessment and vulnerability analysis, strengthen multi-hazard preparedness, prepare disaster management plans at national, state, district and sub-district levels, develop mitigation projects and improve public awareness.

Fifthly, given the large number of 229 districts in India falling under seismic zones IV and V, special efforts have to be made to strengthen the critical infrastructure like hospitals, schools, government offices, etc. in these districts to withstand high intensity earthquakes.

Finally, the importance of creating a powerful cadre of trained youth and children is extremely important to make disaster risk reduction an integral part of our culture of preparedness as in India, the population below 35 years consists of more than 770 million youth and children.

We have to shift gears if we have to save lives. "Business as usual" stand by officials mandated to tackle disaster management, as seen in the lethargy in institutional mechanisms at national, state and district levels is a recipe for disaster. Let us hope that the Japanese experience will reinforce the critical imperative to take a hard look at our systems, processes and institutions and force the national will to carry forward the spirit of the Disaster Management Act, 2005.

(The writer is former Member of National Disaster Management Authority, Govt. of India)

18 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

Review

HOW SAFE WE ARE?

By AP Singh apan is rewriting its history once again after Hiroshima & Nagasaki accident.

Japan, a land that is no stranger to earthquakes and from where the word "Tsunami" was derived, is facing the toughest time in its history after an earthquake of magnitude 9 and one of the most devastating tsunami. The worst part is Japan the only country ever to witness the full horrors of nuclear war is now face to face with a nuclear power nightmare after large release of radioactivity in the environment from the nuclear reactors at Fukushima Daiichi.

In Japan one third of the power is being produced by 50 commercially operating nuclear reactors. These reactors were built taking in to account the fact that they would be operating in a seismically dangerous environment with the technological over confidence that there won't be such kind of situation which they are facing today.

This accident has triggered a big debate in the countries including India who have nuclear plants, that whether nuclear plants are safe for producing energy, keeping in view that any unforeseen chain of events can lead to such disastrous situation with serious safety issues.

While the whole world is busy in analysing the threat possibilities from the tsunami hit Japanese nuclear plants, our scientists declared that all the nuclear power plants are safe and there are no such threats as in Japan though our Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced that instructions had been given for an immediate technical review of all safety systems in India's nuclear power plants to withstand natural disasters.

India has 20 nuclear reactors of which 18 are indigenous pressurised heavy water reactors and the rest 2 are boiling water reactors, like the ones used in Japan.

As per SK Jain, Chairperson, NPCIL (Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd) unlike regulatory practices in other countries, in India the regulatory board gave clearance for five years at a time and after that it was mandatory

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to conduct a safety assessment to seek relicensing. Also Indian plants had a passive system for cooling the reactors which was not dependent on power supply. According to NPCIL, Indian nuclear plants remained safe in the last two major natural calamities struck in India in last one decade.

Despite a major earthquake in Bhuj (Gujarat) on 26th January2001, the Kokrapar Atomic Power Station near Surat, Gujarat continued to operate safely. Similarly, during December 2004 tsunami in Tamil Nadu, the Madras Atomic Power Station at Kalpakkam was safely shut down without any radiological consequence and the plant was restarted within days after a regulatory review.

The Indian Environmental Radiation Monitoring Network (IERMON) established by BARC provides online data on radioactive levels at 28 locations across the country. Officials reveal that at present there is no increase in the radiation level above normal background in India. However, nobody will guarantee that an Indian nuclear plant can survive if an earthquake of 9 magnitude and a tsunami of 23 foot height which inundated Fukushima coolant pumps in Japan, occurs here, expert says.

In India nuclear energy constitutes only 3% of the total power generated but the Indian government, after the Indo-US nuclear deal is aiming that this could go up to nearly 25% by 2050.

India needs to be careful about nuclear energy but it does not mean the country needs to rewind its policy says Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh. But a renowned geologist KS Valdiyan says it is true that the 2004 Indian tsunami did not result in any damage to Madras Atomic Power Station at Kalpakkam except causing some flooding but this was because the tsunami originated from the subduction zone near Sumatra, 1400 km away from India. According to him, had the tsunami originated from near Andaman Island, instead of Sumatra, the waves would have lashed India's eastern coast with much greater ferocity and travelled much farther inland.

As per an analysis done by NDMA which was submitted to the home ministry in 2009, 12 critical vulnerabilities can seriously impede India's response to a disaster in any of its seven nuclear power plants. The lacunae identified include, lack of trained doctors to handle radiation related injuries, lack of emergency shelters

and camping facilities near nuclear plants, non-identification of alternate sources of food and water, inadequate police force and civil defence volunteers as first responders and inadequate emergency response centres, inadequate stock of monitoring equipments etc.

But almost two years have been passed and nothing serious and significant steps have been taken up since then except the creation of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) to respond to a nuclear emergency.

As per CP Rajendran of CES at Indian Institute of Sciences, Bangalore, the biggest earthquake threat (magnitude7 and above) to India is from the Himalayas. He said, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti and Japanese disaster should motivate geologists to thoroughly review India's preparedness to tackle quake related calamities.

A senior geologist Vineet Gahalaut says "In India the biggest problem is the implementation of building codes and lack of public awareness". He added "When death toll and economic losses in such a technologically advanced country like Japan may reach to so high, imagine in a country like India, where there is no law on building codes and almost no public awareness".

One reason the 2004 tsunami in India proved so catastrophic was the fact that warning systems in the region were virtually nonexistent. Since then, there has been progress in most aspects of warnings across the world, and the Indian Ocean itself now has a regional system in place.

But the tsunami warning systems in the ocean, which are currently coordinated by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, are not integrated between countries.

However, there will be discussions about enhanced exchange of the data and forecasts as warning systems become more reliable. This will place a premium upon better forecasting.

Modern instruments have become so sensitive that they can measure magnetic fields one millionth of the strength of the earth's magnetic field, so that tremors in the lithosphere can be detected long before large earthquakes and tsunamis actually occur.

With global warming, these calculations also take account of the increasing danger as the sea level riseswhich are happening three times faster in tropical seas where tsunami risk is more.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 19

Interview

Entire Himalayan Belt is Sensitive to Earthquakes ven as Japan is located in the "Ring of Fire" ,which is essentially an arc that stretches along the basin of the Pacific ocean and is situated in the most seismically active areas of the world but an Indian Geophysicist was of the firm opinion that the country did not suffer much due to the earthquake that occurred here recently but that extent of damage in the Land of Rising Sun was due to Tsunami and atomic radiation.

Here are excerpts of an interview with Professor Kamal Kumar Agarwal an expert in Structural Geology at the Centre of Advanced Study in Lucknow University by DMD Team.

What are the Major Earth Quakes of India?

The major earth quakes 1881 Nicobar Islands earthquake, 1897 Assam earthquake, 1905 Kangra earthquake, 1934 Bihar earthquake, 1950 Medog earthquake, 1967 Koynanagar earthquake, 1975 Kinnaur earthquake, 1988 Bihar earthquake, 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake, 1993 Latur earthquake, 1997 Jabalpur earthquake , 1999 Chamoli earthquake, 2001 Gujarat earthquake, 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, 2009 Andaman Islands earthquake, Why these Quakes occur and what is geology of Earth?

The outer layers of the Earth are divided into lithosphere and asthenosphere.

This is based on differences in mechanical properties and in the method for the transfer of heat. Mechanically, the lithosphere is cooler and more rigid, while the asthenosphere is hotter and flows more easily. In terms of heat transfer, the lithosphere loses heat by conduction whereas the asthenosphere also transfers heat by convection. This division should not be confused with the chemical subdivision of these same layers into the mantle (comprising both the asthenosphere and the mantle portion of the lithosphere) and the crust: a given piece of mantle may be part of the lithosphere or the asthenosphere at different times, depending on its temperature and pressure.

What are the Key principles of Plate Tectonics?

The key principle of plate tectonics is

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that the lithosphere exists as separate and distinct tectonic plates, which ride on the fluid-like (visco-elastic solid) asthenosphere. Plate motions range up to a typical 10-40 mm/a (Mid-Atlantic Ridge; about as fast as fingernails grow), to about 160 mm/a (Nazca Plate; about as fast as hair grows) What is oceanic and continental crust?

Tectonic lithosphere plates consist of lithospheric mantle overlain by either or both of two types of crustal material: oceanic crust (in older texts called sima from silicon and magnesium) and continental crust (sial from silicon and aluminium). Average oceanic lithosphere is typically 100 km thick. Because it is formed at mid-ocean ridges and spreads outwards, its thickness is therefore a function of its distance from the midocean ridge where it was formed.

Continental lithosphere is typically 200 km thick, though this also varies considerably between basins, mountain ranges, and stable cratonic interiors of continents. The two types of crust also differ in thickness, with continental crust being considerably thicker than oceanic (35 km vs. 6 km).

What is plate boundary?

The location where two plates meet is called a plate boundary, and plate boundaries are commonly associated with geological events such as earth-

20 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

quakes and the creation of topographic features such as mountains, volcanoes, mid-ocean ridges, and oceanic trenches. The majority of the world's active volcanoes occur along plate boundaries, with the Pacific Plate's Ring of Fire being most active and most widely known.

Tectonic plates include continental crust or oceanic crust, and many plates contain both. For example, the African Plate includes the continent and parts of the floor of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Basically, three types of plate boundaries exist (with a fourth, mixed type), characterized by the way the plates move relative to each other. They are associated with different types of surface phenomena. The different types of plate boundaries are: Transform boundaries (Conservative) occur where plates slide or, perhaps more accurately, grind past each other along transform faults. The San Andreas Fault in California is an example of a transform boundary exhibiting dextral motion.

Divergent boundaries (Constructive) occur where two plates slide apart from each other. Mid-ocean ridges (e.g., MidAtlantic Ridge) and active zones of rifting (such as Africa's Great Rift Valley) are both examples of divergent boundaries.

Convergent boundaries (Destructive) (or active margins) occur where two plates slide towards each other commonly forming either a subduction zone (if one plate moves underneath the other) or a continental collision (if the two plates

Interview contain continental crust). Deep marine trenches are typically associated with subduction zones, and the basins that develop along the active boundary are often called "foreland basins". The subducting slab contains many hydrous minerals, which release their water on heating; this water then causes the mantle to melt, producing volcanism.

Examples of this are the Andes mountain range in South America and the Japanese island arc.

Plate boundary zones occur where the effects of the interactions are unclear and the boundaries, usually occurring along a broad belt, are not well defined, and may show various types of movements in different episodes.

The polar drift had occurred because continents seemed to have moved through different climatic zones during the past. Furthermore, paleomagnetic data had shown that the magnetic pole had also shifted during time. Reasoning in an opposite way, the continents might have shifted and rotated, while the pole remained relatively fixed.

Formation and break-up of continents?

The movement of plates has caused the formation and break-up of continents over time, including occasional formation of a supercontinent that contains most or all of the continents. The supercontinent Columbia or Nuna formed during a period of 2.0-1.8 billion years and broke up about 1.5-1.3 billion years ago.

The supercontinent Rodinia is thought to have formed about 1 billion years ago and to have embodied most or all of Earth's continents, and broken up into eight continents around 600 million years ago. The eight continents later reassembled into another supercontinent called Pangaea; Pangaea broke up into Laurasia (which became North America and Eurasia) and Gondwana (which became the remaining continents).

What are the Major and Minor Tectonic plates?

Depending on how they are defined, there are usually seven or eight "major" plates: African Plate, Antarctic Plate, IndoAustralian Plate, sometimes subdivided into, Indian Plate, Australian Plate, Eurasian Plate, North American Plate, South American Plate, Pacific Plate, Minor plates There are dozens of smaller plates, some of the important are: Arabian Plate, Caribbean Plate, Juan de Fuca Plate, Cocos Plate, Nazca Plate, Philippine Sea Plate and Scotia Plate .

Wh a t c a u s e d th e e a r th q u a k e a n d th e tsunami in Japan?

The devastating earthquake that shook

Japan was caused by movement of massive tectonic plates that thrust below the other and forced the seabed and occean upwards, triggering a giant tsunami.

How the pressure is created during movement of plates beneath the surface of earth?

The plates are on the move and when they hit each other, it builds pressure.Then pressure releases, causing earthquakes and the rising seabed triggers tsunami.

What is the geographical. position of Japan which makes it vulnerable to earthquake?

Japan is either on or close to the boundary of four tectonic plates: The Pacific, North American, Eurasian which are primary plates, and Phillipines sea plate, which is one of the secondary plates.This is why the geophysicist used to tell that Japan was one among the most seismically active areas in the world.

Wh a t w a s th e q u a n tu m o f e n e r g y g e n e r a t e d b y t h e e a r t h q u a k e in J a p a n ?

As per prominent seismologist David Wald, the Japan earthquake is estimated to have generated energy that was roughly equal to the energy the US consumes in a year.

What is your opinion on the damage durin g t h e r e c e n t e a r t h q u a k e in J a p a n ?

Japan has not suffered much due to the earthquake. Whatever damage has been done there was an outcome of the Tsunami and the atomic radiation .

Was there any pre-information that J a p a n h a d b e fo r e th e e a r th q u a k e ?

Going by the geological location of Japan the Tsunami there was not an unexpected one (Japan had already witnessed 156 Tsunamis so far during last 400 years). Movement of the tectonic plates beneath the surface of the earth is the maximum that area as compared

to any other part in the world. Japan is not the only country in that large seismic region but other countries can also bear the shock of the alarming movement of plates.A deep study reveals that the Tsunami has caused maximum damage in the area in Japan which is closer to North America. Tectonic movement is maximum beneath the surface between the two countries (USA and Japan). This explains why there can be future aftershocks in these two regions.

Which are the areas within India which can be affected with the Tsunami in Japan ?

The area in vicinity of the Bay of Bengal is the most sensitive in this context because tectonic plates are thrusting one below the other in this region.

Besides Bengal, Orissa ,Tamilnadu and parts of Sri Lanka are also sensitive to Tsunami due to movement of plates while there is no danager to other areas in near future.

Thus, in your opinion ,the atomic reactors which are situated in vicinity of the Bay of Bengal area not safe?

My assessment is based on Tsunami and its impact which definitely be on a large part but I cannot say anything on fate of the Atomic reactor without knowing the security measures which have been adopted at these places.

Does the government consult with geolo g is t s b e f o r e g o in g a h e a d w it h it s h o u s ing projects in major towns of the country?

I do not have much information on the issue.

Which area is the most sensitive in the country as per as the earthquake is concerned?

The entire Himalayan belt is very sensitive in this connection. Lucknow and New Delhi including parts of eastern pockets of the country are also sensitive to earthquake.

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 21

Update

Japan, Not Enough Safeguards to Protect Nuke Plant apan's government admitted Tuesday (29th March 2011) that its safeguards were insufficient to protect a nuclear plant against the earthquake and tsunami that crippled the facility and caused it to spew radiation, and it vowed to overhaul safety standards.

The struggle to contain radiation at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex has unfolded with near-constant missteps - the latest including three workers drenched with radioactive water despite wearing supposedly waterproof suits.

The March 11 tsunami that slammed into Japan's northeast, wiping out towns and killing thousands of people, knocked out power and backup systems at the coastal nuclear power plant.

More than 11,000 bodies have been recovered, but officials say the final death toll is expected to exceed 18,000. Hundreds of thousands of people remain homeless, their homes and livelihoods destroyed. Damage could amount to $310 billion -the most expensive natural disaster on record.

The unfolding drama has drawn increasing criticism of the utility that owns the plant as well as scrutiny of Japan's preparedness for nuclear crises.

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"Our preparedness was not sufficient," Chief Cabinet secretary Yukio Edano told reporters. "When the current crisis is over, we must examine the accident closely and thoroughly review" the safety standards.

An Associated Press investigation found that Tokyo Electric Power Co. officials had dismissed scientific evidence and geological history that indicated that a massive earthquake - and subsequent tsunami - was far more likely than they believed.

That left the complex with nowhere near enough protection against the tsunami.

The mission to stabilize the power plant has been fraught with setbacks, as emergency crews have dealt with fires, explosions and radiation scares in the frantic bid to prevent a complete meltdown.

The plant has been leaking radiation that has made its way into vegetables, raw milk and tap water as far away as Tokyo. Residents within 12 miles (20 kilometers) of the plant have been ordered to leave and some nations have banned the imports of food products from the Fukushima region.

Highly toxic plutonium was the latest contaminant found seeping into the soil outside the plant, TEPCO said Monday.

22 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

Safety officials said the amounts did not pose a risk to humans, but the finding supports suspicions that dangerously radioactive water is leaking from damaged nuclear fuel rods.

"The situation is very grave," Edano said.

Workers succeeded last week in reconnecting some parts of the plant to the power grid. But as they pumped in water to cool the reactors and nuclear fuel, they discovered numerous pools of radioactive water, including in the basements of several buildings and in trenches outside.

The contaminated water has been emitting four times as much radiation as the government considers safe for workers. It must be pumped out before electricity can be restored and the regular cooling systems powered up.

That has left officials struggling with two crucial but contradictory efforts: pumping in water to keep the fuel rods cool and pumping out contaminated water.

Officials are hoping tanks at the complex will be able to hold the water, or that new tanks can be trucked in. On Tuesday, officials from the Nuclear Safety Commission said other possibilities include digging a storage pit for the contaminated water, recycling it back into the reactors or even pumping it to an offshore tanker.

On Monday, Edano blasted TEPCO for a major miscalculation that saw company officials announce a wildly high radiation level at the plant over the weekend, only to back away a halfday later, saying it had been an error.

"This sort of mistake is not something that can be forgiven," he said.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan reiterated in a speech to parliament that Japan was grappling with its worst problems since World War II. "This quake, tsunami and the nuclear accident are the biggest crises for Japan" in decades, said Kan, dressed in one of the blue work jackets that have become ubiquitous among bureaucrats since the tsunami. He said the crises remained unpredictable, but added: "We will continue to handle it in a state of maximum alert."

Kan has faced increasing criticism from opposition lawmakers over the handling of a nuclear disaster stretching into a third week.

"We cannot let you handle the crisis," lawmaker Yosuke Isozaki said in parliament. "We cannot let you be in charge of Japan's crisis management.�

(Mainichi Japan)

Life

Questions about radiation's effect on food Frequently asked questions and answers about foods that contain radioactive materials.

What will happen if foods containing radioactive materials are consumed?

If radioactive substances contained in foods or water are consumed, they will remain in the body and continue emitting radiation. Emissions from the Fukushima nuclear facility of radioactive iodine-131, which has been found in milk, vegetables and water, has an eight-day half life-meaning it loses half of its radiation in eight days and three-quarters in 16 days.

Similarly, iodine-131's radiation reduces steadily and does not remain on soil for long periods. Meanwhile, radioactive cesium-137 takes 30 years to lose half of its radiation. It will remain on soil for a longer time and affect agricultural products.

However, even if cesium-137 is consumed, much of it will be excreted from the body.

What do provisional limits mean?

Provisional limits are the amounts of radiation estimated to cause health hazards such as increased risk of cancer if a person consumes all the following foods contain-

ing radioactive materials every day for one year: one liter of milk or other dairy products, two liters of water and 100 grams of leafy and other vegetables, said Atsushi Kasai, former laboratory chief of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. It is significant to note that your body will not be affected even if a food containing radiation at about 100 times the provisional limit is accidentally ingested just once.

However, this does not mean that you should eat foods containing more than the provisional limits of radioactive materials, Kasai said.

How do radioactive substances attach to foodstuffs?

Yasuyuki Muramatsu, Professor of Gakushuin University, who specializes in radiochemistry, said that radioactive iodine and radioactive cesium are carried by the wind and tend to attach to large leafy vegetables like spinach. They adhere to the surface of cabbage but will not easily make their way inside, Muramatsu said.

Radiation levels can be lowered to a certain degree by washing vegetables well with clean water. It also is recommended that cabbage be washed after the outside leaves are removed.

Radioactive substances tend to stay on the soil surface and have only small effects on Japanese radish and other root vegetables in the short term, he added. Radiation was detected in cows' milk because dairy cows

World Bank :

Japan reconstruction may take 5 years apan may need five years to rebuild from the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that has caused up to $235 billion of damage, the World Bank said in a report recently.

The March 11 disaster -which likely killed more than 18,000 people and ravaged northeastern Japan -will likely shave up to 0.5 percentage point from the country's economic growth this year, the bank said in a report. The impact will be concentrated in the first half of the year, it said.

"Damage to housing and infrastructure has been unprecedented," the World Bank said. "Growth should pick up though in subsequent quarters as reconstruction efforts, which could last five years, accelerate."

The bank cited damage estimates between $123 billion and $235 billion, and cost to private insurers of between $14 billion and $33 billion. It said the government will spend $12 billion on reconstruction in the current national budget and "much more" in the next one.

It said a crippled nuclear power station in the northeast that authorities are racing to regain control of is an unfolding situation that poses uncertainties and challenges. Traces of radiation first detected in spinach and milk from farms near the nuclear plant are turning up farther away in tap water, rain and even dust. In all cases, the government said the radiation levels were too small to pose an immediate risk to health.

A short-term drop in Japan's consumer demand and manufacturing production will also hurt trade with regional neighbors, the bank said. South Korean electronics companies have seen the price of some memory chips from Japan rise 20 percent because of disrupted production, while Thai car exporters may run out of Japanese auto parts next month, it said.

"Disruption to production networks, especially in automotive and

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probably consumed feedstuff or water containing radioactive substances, Muramatsu said.

How were the latest radiation tests con ducted?

Each municipal government tested its principal and other products such as rice, vegetables, milk and seafood. In case of Ibaraki Prefecture, the prefectural government took samples in its northern region, which is closer to the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant, and areas with larger shipping volumes to test their products.

The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry advised local governments to test vegetables after washing them so their radiation levels more closely approximate produce just before it is consumed.

What are the effects of radioactive materials on children?

Children are more sensitive than adults to the effects of radiation. In case of an adult, about only 7 percent of radioactive iodine taken into the body is stored in the thyroid gland and the rest is excreted within 24 hours, said Gen Suzuki, Professor of International University of Health and Medicine. On the other hand, a child's body retains about 20 percent. However, provisional limits are set at a safe level so that children will not be affected if they consume foods containing radioactive substances within the limits.

(Yomiuri Shimbun)

electronics industries, could continue to pose problems," the bank said. "Japan is a major producer of parts, components and capital goods which supply East Asia's production chains."

Japan's northeast, the epicenter of the disaster, is home to ports, steel mills, oil refineries, nuclear power plants and manufacturers of auto and electronics components. Many of those facilities have been damaged, while nationwide power shortages have severely crimped auto and electronics production.

The World Bank said in a separate report that economic growth in developing East Asian countries will likely slow this year as central banks raise interest rates to battle inflation pressure from rising food and energy prices.

The bank expects developing East Asia, led by China, to expand 8.2 percent this year and 7.9 percent next year from 9.6 percent in 2010. China's economy, the world's second biggest, will likely grow 9 percent in 2011 from 10.3 percent in 2010, the bank said.

It said the forecasts were calculated before the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami.

The bank said central bankers in the region have been slow to attack the threat of quickening inflation from higher commodity prices, and urged policymakers to ease emergency government spending programs implemented during 2009's global economic recession.

"Tighter monetary policies, including higher policy rates, are needed across the region in varying degrees to pre-empt the recent rise in food and other prices from exacerbating inflation expectations," the bank said. "At the same time, governments need to allow their discretionary fiscal stimulus packages to lapse."

About 51 million people were lifted out of poverty -those living on less than $2 per day -in developing East Asia last year, lowering the region's poverty rate to 27 percent, or about 500 million people, the bank said.

Developing East Asia includes China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Fiji, Laos, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea.

(Mainichi Japan)

Disaster Management & Development • April 2011 23

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28 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

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30 Disaster Management & Development • April 2011

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