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SESAR Definition Phase - Deliverable 2

Air Transport Framework

The Performance Target D2

DLM-0607-001-02-00a December 2006

Air Transport Framework

December 2006

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Issued by the SESAR Consortium for the SESAR Definition Phase Project co-funded by the European Commission and EUROCONTROL

SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

Preface.......................................................................................005

4

Short-Term Improvements Baseline.............................063

Table Of Contents

4.1 Short-term Context............................................................063 Executive Summary................................................................006 1

Introduction ........................................................................012

2

The 2020 Vision Of The Air Transport Industry .........014

4.2 Capacity ...........................................................................064 4.2.1 Airspace ..............................................................................064 4.2.2 Airport.................................................................................065

4.3 Efficiency & Predictability...................................................066

2.1 Introduction ......................................................................014

4.3.1 Airspace ..............................................................................066 4.3.2 Airport.................................................................................066

2.2 Societal Expectations & Needs ...........................................016

4.4 Cost Effectiveness.............................................................067

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020...........................................017

4.5 Interoperability ..................................................................068

2.3.1 Market Development ............................................................017 2.3.2 The Air Space Users Value Chain ..........................................019 2.3.3 Airspace Users’ Requirements for Air Traffic Services from the ATM System ..........................................................021

4.6 Safety...............................................................................068 4.7 Environment......................................................................069 4.8 Security ............................................................................070

2.4 Vision of the Future Management Framework of the European ATM System for 2020...............................024 2.4.1 Overview .............................................................................024 2.4.2 Business Management Framework of Future ATM System......024 2.4.3 ATM Institutional & Regulatory Framework.............................032 2.4.4 Subjects of Common Interest................................................035

4.9 Expected Performance Improvements.................................071 4.10 Conclusion ......................................................................072 5

Principles for the Way Forward To 2020.....................073 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................073

3

Performance Framework And Targets.........................041

5.2 The Societal Expectations of ATM.......................................073 5.2.1 The Environmental Aspects of ATM .......................................073 5.2.2 The Security Aspects of ATM ................................................074

3.1 Introduction ......................................................................041 3.2 Application of a Performance-Based Approach ...................042

5.3 The Performance Framework .............................................074

3.2.1 Background on ICAO Approach.............................................042 3.2.2 European Context ................................................................044 3.2.3 SESAR Performance Framework ...........................................044

5.4 The ATM Business Management Framework .......................075 5.5 The ATM Institutional & Regulatory Framework ...................076

3.3 A Vision for Improved Performance Levels ..........................049

5.5.1 The ATM Institutional Framework - The Joint Undertaking ......076 5.5.2 The Regulatory Framework of ATM........................................077 5.5.3 The Safety Legislative/Regulatory Framework of ATM.............078

3.4 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Performance Objectives and Targets.......................................................................049 3.4.1 Cost Effectiveness................................................................050 3.4.2 Capacity ..............................................................................051 3.4.3 Efficiency.............................................................................052 3.4.4 Flexibility .............................................................................053 3.4.5 Predictability........................................................................054 3.4.6 Safety .................................................................................055 3.4.7 Security...............................................................................056 3.4.8 Environmental Sustainability .................................................057 3.4.9 Access and Equity................................................................059 3.4.10 Participation ......................................................................060 3.4.11 Interoperability ...................................................................061

5.6 Subjects of Common Interest .............................................079 5.6.1 The ATM Standardisation Process .........................................079 5.6.2 The ATM Financing Aspects..................................................079

5.7 The Future Architecture of ATM..........................................081 5.7.1 Principles for the Future ATM Architecture.............................081 5.7.2 Safety Approach to the SESAR Architecture Activities .............081 5.7.3 Performance Requirements ..................................................081

5.8 The Role of the Human in ATM ..........................................082 5.8.1 Social Factors and Change Management ..............................083 5.8.2 Human Factors ....................................................................084 5.8.3 Recruitment, Training, Competence and Staffing ....................085

3.5 Conclusions ......................................................................062 6

List of References.............................................................086

7

List of Abbreviations and Terminology ........................087

8

List of Figures & Tables...................................................093

Annexes.....................................................................................094 ANNEX I - Solution Risks ..........................................................094 ANNEX II - Specific Process Assessment in D2..........................096

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December 2006

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Air Transport Framework

The SESAR Consortium joins the forces and expertise of 29 companies and organisations together with 20 associated partners: from Airspace Users, Air Navigation Service Providers, Airports, Supply Industry and many others, including Safety Regulators, Military, Pilots & Controllers Associations and Research Centres as well as significant expertise from EUROCONTROL.

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Issued by the SESAR Consortium for the SESAR Definition Phase Project co-funded by the European Commission and EUROCONTROL

SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

Preface The SESAR programme is the European Air Traffic Management (ATM) modernisation programme. It will combine technological, economic and regulatory aspects and will use the Single European Sky (SES) legislation to synchronise the plans and actions of the different stakeholders and federate resources for the development and implementation of the required improvements throughout Europe, in both airborne and ground systems.

The first phase of SESAR, the Definition Phase, is cofunded by EUROCONTROL and the European Commission under Trans European networks. The products of this Definition Phase will be the result of a 2-year study awarded to an industry wide consortium supplemented by EUROCONTROL’s expertise. It will ultimately deliver a European ATM Master Plan covering the period up to 2020 and the accompanying Programme of Work for the first 6 years of the subsequent Development Phase.

The SESAR Definition Phase will produce 6 main Deliverables over the 2 years covering all aspects of the future European ATM System, including its supporting institutional framework. The scope of the 6 Deliverables (Dx) are: • D1: Air Transport Framework – The Current Situation • D2: Air Transport Framework – The Performance Target • D3: Definition of the future ATM Target Concept • D4: Selection of the “Best” Deployment Scenario • D5: Production of the ATM Master Plan • D6: Work Programme for 2008 -2013 The SESAR Consortium has been selected to carry out the Definition Phase study, which for the first time in European ATM history has brought together the major stakeholders in European aviation to build the ATM Master Plan. The SESAR Consortium draws upon the expertise of the major organisations within the aviation industry. This includes Airspace Users, Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs), Airport Operators and the Supply Industry (European and non-European), plus a number of Associated Partners, including safety regulators, military organisations, staff associations (including pilots, controllers and engineers) and research centres which work together with the significant expertise of EUROCONTROL. This is considered to be a major achievement.

The second Deliverable, D2, has been produced in accordance with its Milestone Objective Plan (MOP) [Ref 1] and the inputs of the eighteen Task deliverables which are providing the substantiating information and which are identified within the SESAR Work Breakdown Structure. It is subsequently approved and accepted by all project Participants.

The SESAR Consortium members: AEA (Association of European Airlines), ADP (Aéroports de Paris), AENA (Aeropuertos Espanoles y Navegacion Aérea), AIRBUS, Air France, Air Traffic Alliance E.I.G / G.I.E, Amsterdam Airport SCHIPHOL, Austro Control GmbH, BAA (British Airports Authority, BAE Systems, DFS Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, DSNA (Direction des Services de la Navigation Aérienne), EADS (European Aeronautic and Space Company), ENAV S.p.A. (Società Italiana per l'Assistenza al Volo), ERA (European Regions Airline Association), FRAPORT, IAOPA (International Council of Aircraft Owner and Pilot Associations), IATA (International Air Transport Association), Iberia, INDRA Sistemas SA, KLM (KLM Royal Dutch Airlines), LFV (Luftfartsverket), LVNL (Luchtverkeer Nederland), Munich International Airport, NATS (National Air Traffic Services), Navegaçao Aérea de Portugal (NAV), SELEX Sistemi Integrati, THALES ATM, THALES AVIONICS. The SESAR Associated Partners: ATC EUC (Air Traffic Controllers European Unions Coordination), Boeing, CAA UK (Civil Aviation Authority UK), ECA (European Cockpit Association), ETF (European Transport Workers’ Federation), EURAMID (European ATM Military Directors), IFATCA (International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations), IFATSEA (International Federation of Air Traffic Safety Electronics Association), Honeywell, Rockwell-Collins, Dassault (representing EBAA). Research Centres: AENA (Aeropuertos Espanoles y Navegacion Aérea), DFS Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH, DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft – und Raumfahrt), DSNA (Direction des Services de la Navigation Aérienne), INECO (Ingenieria y Economia del Transporte, S.A.), ISDEFE (Ingenieria de Sistemas para la Defensa de Espana), NLR (Stichting Nationaal Lucht-en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium), SICTA (Sistemi Innovativi per il Controllo del Traffico Aereo), SOFREAVIA (Société Française d’Etudes et de Réalisations d’Equipments Aéronautiques).

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Air Transport Framework

Executive Summary I

Air Transport - a continuously growing demand facing challenges

Air Transport is a vital element of people’s lives around the world.

It stimulates national economies, global trade and tourism. It brings people together, face to face, as friends & families and facilitates business opportunities. It responds to these human needs as no other manner of communication can. This is the main reason, together with the expected increase of the worldwide Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for a sustainable growth demand in Air Transport. Furthermore the military element of air transport enables States to support their defence and security policies.

As a result of the growing GDP, the annual European traffic demand - if unconstrained - is forecast to reach at least 18 Million IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) flights by 2020. All existing civil airspace users segments are expected to grow in volume but the composition of the market segments will change due to access to air transport being affordable to all citizens. The military volume of traffic will remain stable but new generation of aircraft with increased capabilities will need access to larger blocks of airspace. In addition new types of air vehicles will emerge such as Very Light Jets (VLJs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).

I

European Air Traffic Management System operating close to its limit

These market developments are challenged by two main factors: • The current Air Traffic Management (ATM) System was designed decades ago and is based on an operational concept and technologies which are reaching their limits.

• The existing airport infrastructure cannot fully accommodate the increasing demand. While this could be partially mitigated by e.g. the use of secondary airports and an intermodal transport system, additional airport infrastructure will still be required.

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SESAR - Key for Success

In response to the ATM challenge, the European Commission (EC) launched the SESAR programme, with the objectives, as expressed by Vice-President Jacques Barrot, to achieve a future European ATM System for 2020 and beyond, which can, relative to today's performance: • Enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air, • Improve the safety performance by a factor of 10, • Enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the environment and • Provide ATM services at a cost to the airspace users which is at least 50% less.

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ATM - SESAR Vision

The SESAR Milestone Deliverable D1 concluded that “Business as usual is not an option”.

The proposed SESAR Vision is to achieve a performance based European ATM System, built in partnership, to best support the ever increasing societal and States’, including military, expectations for air transport with respect to the growing mobility of both citizens and goods and all other aviation activities, in a safe, secure, environmentally sustainable and cost-effective manner.

Central to achieving this Vision, is the concept of placing the best overall outcome of individual flights at the heart of the ATM network. The SESAR Vision is dependent upon three distinct ATM frameworks, to which all stakeholders have to commit and operate : • The “Performance Framework” • The “Business Management Framework” • The “Institutional and Regulatory Framework”.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

The Performance Framework An ATM performance based approach is considered essential to drive management decisions towards achieving the Vision.

The present air traffic service performance assessment mainly addresses the performance of ANSPs. As this structure has proven its value, it can form the basis for the evolutionary development of a Performance Framework extended to include all ATM stakeholders.

Four KPAs, directly linked to EC objectives and the achievement of the proposed SESAR Vision are described below.

The other seven KPAs (Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability, Security, Access and Equity, Participation, Interoperability) are addressed in Chapter 3 of this document.

Security Access/Equity Safety

Capacity Predictability

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM

Cost Effectiveness

Participation Efficiency Interoperability

LEGEND

Environment Flexibility

Baseline 2006 Observed Year x Target 2020

I l l u s t r a t i o n o f K PA s P e r f o r m a n c e Ta r g e t s D e v e l o p m e n t The SESAR Consortium has started to address the definition of the 2020 performance by setting initial targets. These will be continuously refined within the lifetime of the ATM Master Plan.

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The ATM Performance Targets for 2020

The KPA targets represent initial indicative values (working assumptions), subject to further analysis and validation. All KPAs are interdependent and will be the basis for impact assessment and consequent trade-off analysis for decision-making in the subsequent SESAR Milestone Deliverables.

ATM performance covers a very broad spectrum of aspects, which are represented through eleven Key Performance Areas (KPAs).

The diagram below is illustrative of the KPAs and how they could develop towards the 2020 targets.

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Air Transport Framework

Capacity - Traffic will grow.

In accordance with the political vision and goal, the ATM target concept should enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air (en-route and airport network), so as to be able to handle traffic growth well beyond 2020.

The deployment of the ATM target concept should be progressive, so that only the required capacity is deployed at any time.

The target for Capacity deployment is that the ATM System can accommodate by 2020 a 73% increase in traffic from the 2005 baseline, while meeting the targets for safety and quality of service KPAs (Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability).

Safety - Proactively manage safety with the goal of no ATM related accidents.

The SESAR safety performance objective builds on the ATM2000+ Strategy objective: "To improve safety levels by ensuring that the numbers of ATM induced accidents and serious or risk bearing incidents (includes those with direct and indirect ATM contribution) do not increase and, where possible, decrease".

Considering the anticipated increase in the European annual traffic volume, the implication of the initial safety performance objective is that the overall safety level would gradually have to improve, so as to reach an improvement factor of 3 in order to meet the safety objective in 2020 (based on the assumption that safety needs to improve with the square of traffic volume increase).

In the longer term (design life of the concept) safety levels would need to be able to increase by a factor 10 to meet a possible threefold increase in traffic.

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Environment - ATM will deliver its maximum contribution to the environment.

As a first step towards the political objective to enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the environment: • Achieve the implicit emission improvements through the reduction of gate-to-gate excess fuel consumption addressed in the KPA Efficiency. However no specific separate target could be defined at this stage for the ATM contribution to atmospheric emission reductions.

• Minimise noise emissions and their impacts for each flight to the greatest extent possible.

• Minimise other adverse atmospheric effects to the greatest extent possible. Suitable indicators are yet to be developed.

• The aim is that all proposed environmentally related ATM constraints would be subject to a transparent assessment with an environment and socio-economic scope; and, following this assessment the best alternative solutions from a European Sustainability perspective are seen to be adopted.

• Local environmental rules affecting ATM are to be 100% respected (e.g. aircraft type restrictions, night movement bans, noise routes and noise quotas, etc.). Exceptions are only allowed for safety or security reasons.

Cost-Effectiveness – Halve the total direct ATM costs.

The working assumption for the Cost Effectiveness target is to halve the total direct European gate-to-gate ATM costs from €800/flight (EUROCONTROL Performance Review Report 2005) to €400/flight in 2020 through progressive reduction.

Notwithstanding this 2020 target, continuing cost improvement should be sought after 2020.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

This “Performance Framework” provides a common basis to ensure the effectiveness of the ATM System and links the other two ATM frameworks - the “Business Management Framework” and the “Institutional and Regulatory Framework” together which

are balancing general public and industry interests in a “dynamic working relationship”, that addresses how the safety, security, environmental, design and financial aspects are managed and regulated.

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM Governance Structure at Societal Level Institutional & Regulatory Framework

Dynamic Working Relationship

Governance Structure of the Business Business Framework

Performance Framework

F u t u r e E u r o p e a n AT M S y s t e m

The ATM Business Management Framework Its objective is to ensure that new Operational Concept will be fully implemented in a consistently organized manner throughout all phases of the European ATM System lifecycle, including ATM strategic planning starting with the ATM Master Plan.

In order to achieve this objective the stakeholders, including airspace users, airport operators and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) will have to establish an ATM Performance Partnership.

This will define roles and responsibilities based on a shared set of values, priorities, and network interactions.

In particular joint decision-making and coordinated business planning must be the basis of the ATM Master Plan, the economic and financial analysis of the ATM Master Plan. The introduction of this framework represents a paradigm shift for each stakeholder from the present fragmented decision making process to the execution of a common ATM strategic planning.

In the ATM Performance Partnership, Functional Airspace Block (FAB) initiatives are strongly supported and seen as one of the main vehicles to improve ATM performance, reducing the impact of fragmentation on the cost of air traffic service provision. These will initially develop through regional arrangements between States and ANSPs and lead to further ANSP cooperation, alliances or mergers, including the appropriate regulatory structures.

The financing and funding of the future ATM System will depend upon the options chosen for the business model of the ATM Performance Partnership, while avoiding an increase in the unit rate due to peak investment costs. Several options are to be studied to support the transition, from a fully capital market driven pre-financing scheme to a reasonable mix between charging scheme and financial market pre-financing, including possible Public Private Partnership (PPP) models.

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Air Transport Framework

The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework Its objective is to ensure societal expectations are met and to enable the development, operation and growth of a sustainable European air transport system, through the Business Framework.

It needs to have a simple and well-structured set of regulations and regulatory actions allocated at global, European or national level, whilst continuing to rely on Member States for enforcement.

It will respond to States requirements and work closely with industry to ensure rules are fair, proportionate and to safeguard a level playing field.

The SESAR Joint Undertaking (JU), as the first European ATM PPP, is seen as an important move forward and an initial step to manage the development of SESAR. It is considered as an initial structure capable of maintaining the ATM Master Plan, managing the R&D programme of technical activities, and monitoring its deployment.

The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework has to be flexible so it easily adapts to business and societal changes. Although outside the scope of the SESAR project, the modernisation of this framework is considered to be urgent by the industry.

Improved Operations to meet the Performance Targets New Operational Concept - The Goal It has been acknowledged that the primary objective of the Concept is to get the “best overall outcome” for a flight – this characteristic of the Concept is referred to as the “Business Trajectory”.

The “Business Trajectory” is the representation of an airspace user’s intention with respect to a given flight. It is aimed at guaranteeing the best outcome for the flight as seen from the airspace user’s perspective. At the airspace user’s discretion this outcome may be with respect to the minimum time for the flight, the minimum cost, or any other characteristic of the trajectory. Although perhaps not as obvious as for commercial airlines, business aviation, general aviation and the military also have their own “business” intention. The emphasis is on “intention” and naturally, all must be carried out in a manner which guarantees the safety of life and takes into account the need to meet environmental and security requirements.

It is the basis for all partners in the ATM System design, planning and operation to enable the optimal performance of the flight, resulting in optimization of the whole European network performance.

The notion of a business trajectory will be used, replacing the flight plan in use today. The business trajectory is based on a 4-D flight trajectory supplemented with additional information describing the business attributes of the flight, under the overall coordination of a network wide traffic management.

The performance of the future ATM System will then be built around delivery of air traffic services which enable these trajectories, with all partners in ATM working to a common time reference and a common set of values and goals. The functional design of the System will have a coherent system-wide information management to facilitate the collaborative decision-making. The System will deliver air traffic services, which allow seamless en-route-toDecember 2006

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en-route operations, integrating gate-to-gate performance and the airport turn-around process for best overall ATM System performance.

The future ATM System will be designed and operated to provide a quality of service, which maximises predictability and minimises the amount of variability within the constraints of the available infrastructure.

Short term Improvements – first step in the right direction The first SESAR Milestone Deliverable (D1) identified the most relevant blocking points in the airspace and airport areas for which promising and mature initiatives have been further analysed.

• For Cost-effectiveness and Capacity these initiatives appear to have the potential for operational savings of approximately €0.5-1 Billion/year by increasing capacity. At least one third is derived from a more efficient use of existing airspace and airport resources.

The recommended short term improvements will be significant for the medium fast growing airports. The large European airports have already implemented these solutions and should look at more efficient use of Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) to enhance capacity under all conditions. Some short term improvement at some locations might be difficult to achieve due to local political considerations.

• Safety – Meeting the challenge of maintaining and where possible improving safety levels in the short term will require the deployment of a consistent approach to improving safety management in Europe. The European Safety Programme is considered to be the most suitable vehicle to generate the necessary changes.

This is to be complemented on the airport side with the Implementation of Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems (A-SMGCS) coordinated with the European Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

• Environment – abatement procedures and techniques, based on existing technical enablers in current aircraft should be further implemented to improve flight efficiency and help to minimise aviation’s impact footprint. It is essential that stakeholders are seen to adopt and deliver challenging and robust environmental sustainability policy. At airports in particular, a more pro-active approach is expected, including adoption of Collaborative Environmental Management (CEM) process between ANSPs, users and airport operators, and supported by effective engagement with local communities.

• Security – Improvements will be achieved through the collaborative support of the ATM System with relevant civil and military authorities, using agreed information and communication technology security components. The NATO/EUROCONTROL ATM Security Coordination Group (NEASCOG) has set up a Programme of Work to enhance ATM Security including several actions applicable for the short-term.

The Role of the Human in ATM Irrespective of any future vision the human will remain the most flexible and creative element to direct the performance of the overall ATM System including the management of threats, errors and unpredictable events. In order to meet the challenge of the performance objectives of the future ATM System, the Concept of Operations will evolve and will benefit from greater support from automation and an increased integration of airborne and ground capabilities.

It is identified that the changes in the operation of the future ATM System will involve a change in the human roles which requires an extensive change management process that integrates Human Factors, Social Dialogue and all relevant aspects of recruitment, training, competence verification and staffing proactively and throughout the entire process of system development, design and implementation.

The European Civil Aviation Sectorial Social Dialogue Committee is considered as a first promising step to have a European social dialogue, which could be expanded to cover more social provisions by way of collective agreements if social partners (at European level) so desire.

Continuous social dialogue between management and operational staff at a working level should be established as one important means in an advanced change and transition management process to identify and address the social impacts of introduced changes. A better awareness and understanding of the Social Dialogue practices and processes can be created. Its effectiveness and impacts on ATM performance should be further investigated during the SESAR Development and Deployment Phase.

Conclusions For the long-term economic development of Europe and its air transport system, States and the European air transport industry stakeholders must adopt the Vision and agree on the ATM System performance targets to meet the expectations. This will require the commitment and support of all stakeholders and a willingness to participate in emerging new structures.

It is anticipated that growth at some high-density airports will be limited, despite operational mitigations to improve their utilisation.

Therefore additional airport infrastructure will be required for Europe to maintain its competitiveness.

The present European air traffic service provision must transition towards a performance-based approach. A firm ATM Performance Partnership is essential, in which all stakeholders have the shared understanding of the need to optimise collectively the ATM System performance and agree on targets and trade-offs. For example the effectiveness of SESAR will be critically dependent on reinforcing that air traffic management is an integral part of airspace users’ and airport operators’ businesses.

The European air transport industry must act collectively, on environmental sustainability. Moreover the ATM Partners, must foster their contribution to the protection of the environment by considering noise and atmospheric impacts. It is vital that sustainability is woven into ATM decision making. Present efforts of the European Air Transport Industry on improving environmental efficiency should be accelerated by implementing all relevant measures rapidly.

The Business Trajectory concept will ensure the best outcome for all individual flights; all stakeholders have to acknowledge their responsibility towards the enabling of an effective operation of the ATM System, including the safety, environmental sustainability and security aspects associated with the transportation of public and goods and all aeronautical activities.

Performance Partnership is Key!

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Air Transport Framework

1 Introduction The SESAR Milestone deliverable D1 identified the Air Transport Framework - The Current Situation and concluded that the nature and scope of the European ATM System had to change. It recommended that all ATM aspects throughout the wider air transport industry should be brought together to function as one system and be managed by one management framework as shown

AIRSPACE USERS

ATM ASPECTS OF AIRSPACE USERS

System’s architecture and the information needed to flow between them [Ref.21]. The management framework is defined to be the outline structure needed to coherently and consistently manage all of the aspects needed to make it perform as a single ATM System in the widest sense.

It means bringing those aspects of ATM, which exist today in the

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM

AIR NAVIGATION SERVICE PROVIDERS

AIRPORTS

ATM ASPECTS OF AIRPORTS

NON-EUROPEAN ASPECTS OF ANSPs F i g u r e 1 - 1 O u t l i n e o f t h e f u t u r e f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e E u r o p e a n AT M S y s t e m in Figure.1-1. This fundamental conclusion from D1 and the associated recommendations made within it form the basis from which D2 has been developed.

Air Transport Framework – The Performance Target (the SESAR Milestone Deliverable D2) provides the economic outlook for the air transport industry in 2020 with an associated vision how this outlook will shape the future European ATM System to meet the performance required for 2020 and beyond.

scope of the airspace users’ and airports’ industries into one system and one management framework. This management framework will require governance arrangements to achieve a balance between the growing needs of the aviation industry and respecting the needs of society as a whole. These governance arrangements will consist of a representation from all major stakeholder groups, including State/Governmental bodies as appropriate.

The ATM System covers specifically the operational and technical aspects, including the principal functional elements making up the

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Issued by the SESAR Consortium for the SESAR Definition Phase Project co-funded by the European Commission and EUROCONTROL

The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

It is proposed that the management framework covering the future European ATM System is explicitly partitioned into a business management framework and an institutional/regulatory management framework, both of which operate according to the same overall performance framework as shown in Figure 1-2. However, a “Dynamic Working Relationship” should exist between the management frameworks, not only to ensure the appropriate transparency of their activities, but also to facilitate them underta-

Chapter 4 – SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENTS BASELINE identifies and recommends short-term improvements (in the timescale between 2008 and 2013). These short-term improvements respond to some of the weaknesses of the current ATM System, which were identified in D1. They will be harnessed and used to inform and scope the more rigorous assessment of on-going initiatives which will be included in the SESAR milestone deliverable D4.

Chapter 5 – PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY FORWARD TO 2020 iden-

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM Governance Structure at Societal Level Institutional & Regulatory Framework

Dynamic Working Relationship

Governance Structure of the Business Business Framework

Performance Framework

F i g u r e 1 - 2 R e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n I n s t i t u t i o n a l / R e g u l a t o r y, B u s i n e s s & P e r f o r m a n c e F r a m e w o r k s king co-operative working practices that are driven by the common aim of realising benefits for the air transport industry and the European society as a whole.

The structure of this document is as follows: Chapter 2 – THE 2020 VISION OF THE AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY identifies and characterises the vision of the Air Transport Industry in 2020 and the framework for the future European ATM System. This vision addresses the business management aspects, the institutional/regulatory aspects and provides an outline of the organisational arrangements, which link the principal management functions to be performed within and between these two main areas.

Chapter 3 – PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK AND TARGETS characterises in detail the performance framework, which will be used to define, measure and manage the performance of the future ATM System. This includes the definition of the performance targets, which will be used to scope the design of the future ATM System, especially the future Target Concept.

tifies a number of principles, guidelines and aspects of “best practice” which are associated with the major subject areas. These will be used to steer, govern, enable and/or direct the design and development of the future ATM System framework. They have been derived from the strengths of the current situation as identified in D1 and are considered to be qualitative requirements which shall be taken forward for consideration in the future.

Notwithstanding the snapshot of the current situation described in D1 as well as the vision and, plus performance targets, outlined in this D2 document, it is acknowledged that very few of the envisaged change proposals can take place, nor most of the major benefits can be realised without a significant, coherent change and continuous political will to deliver it throughout Europe today. This is needed to make some fundamental changes to the governance structures and, the values, which steer the approach taken to making decisions about air transport, and the way in which air traffic is managed at present.

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Air Transport Framework

2 The 2020 Vision of the Air Transport Industry 2.1 Introduction The air transport industry aims to meet the needs of other industries and society as a whole by offering products and services, which facilitate achieving mobility by air. Figure 2-1 shows this relationship in very simple terms, together with its ensuing relationship with the future European ATM System. Overall the ATM System aims to meet the needs of all airspace users and airport

Society’s needs & expectations of the AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY

beyond, together with a vision for the future European ATM System to accompany it. Throughout the description of these visions the binding thread will be the: 1 - Notion of the demand for and supply of air traffic services (as depicted in outline terms in Figure 2-2).

Products offered to society by the AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY to meet needs & expectations

SOCIETY AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM

Air Transport Industryí s needs & requirements of the FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM

ATM services delivered by the FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM to meet needs & requirements

F i g u r e 2 - 1 P r i n c i p a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n S o c i e t y, A i r Tr a n s p o r t I n d u s t r y a n d AT M S y s t e m

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operators by supplying services, which expedite the safe and efficient movement of aircraft throughout the airspace and airports’ infrastructure.

2 - Conduct of ATM in accordance with the seven ATM Operational Concept Components defined by ICAO [Ref.21].

In this chapter a brief outline of society’s future needs and expectations of the air transport industry is given. This is followed by the outline of a vision for the air transport industry in 2020 and

3 - Whole being driven by an ATM performance framework based upon the eleven key performance areas (KPAs) as defined by ICAO [Ref.21].

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DEMAND FOR CAPACITY OF AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION OF AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

AIRSPACE USERS

AIRPORTS DEMAND FOR CAPACITY OF AIRSPACE & PROVISION OF AIR TRAFFIC SERVICES

SUPPLY OF AIRSPACE CAPACITY & AIR TRAFFIC SERVICES

DEMAND FOR PROVISION OF AIR TRAFFIC SERVICES

FUTURE EUROPEAN ATM SYSTEM

AIR NAVIGATION SERVICE PROVIDERS

F i g u r e 2 - 2 O u t l i n e o f P r i n c i p a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h E u r o p e a n AT M S y s t e m Figure 2-2 shows the principal relationships between the airspace users, airport operators and the future provision of air traffic services from the ATM System. The relationship is dictated by an ATM business model, which is derived from the models of the individual stakeholders models and where joint decisions are required regarding the performance of the ATM System. Airspace users place demand for capacity upon airports in terms of the infrastructure (e.g. runways and terminal facilities). Airport operators provide the airspace users with the amount of infrastructure they can supply.

Airspace users place the demand for the capacity of airspace upon the ATM System and, together with the airport operators, the demand for the provision of air traffic services as a whole. The ATM System supplies the access to airspace in conjunction with the provision of the appropriate air traffic services with the principal aim of maximising the use of the available infrastructure in the most efficient and cost effective manner to the benefit of all the

stakeholders. In addition, common challenges such as safety, environment, and security require an ATM partnership within a supportive and harmonising framework in order to deliver the most cost effective solutions and avoid unnecessary constraints. It is this tripartite relationship, which will form the basis of the vision for the future European ATM System.

The vision for the management framework of the future European ATM System will develop the relationship shown in Figure 1-2, addressing explicitly the business and institutional/regulatory aspects. Whilst SESAR is addressing the institutional and regulatory aspects of ATM, it must be remembered that almost all aspects of the air transport and wider aviation industry are subject to regulation in a variety of forms. The overall aim is to maintain coherence with these, where appropriate.

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Air Transport Framework

2.2 Societal Expectations and Needs Today, aviation is a fundamental pillar of global society. Society’s expectations from aviation are, therefore, not only to achieve greater mobility through the provision of safe and environmentally acceptable air transport services, but to achieve greater global stability in terms of peace and security, whilst allowing, in principle, access to all through the promotion of all forms of aviation to achieve a higher “quality of life”. This encompasses not only those who have a commercial interest in providing air transportation means, but also military organisations who have an obligation to provide defence and security services and those who wish to pursue aviation related activities for increasing knowledge, leisure and enjoyment.

Global Trends

Trends in Europe

Growth in GDP • Average of ~3.5% per annum • Rate highest for developing economies un Asia

Mobility demand & modal spilt • Share of passenger air traffic expected to increase from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2020

Demographics of Population • Major proportion of people living in cities • Average age increasing

Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) • Expected to increase by ~4.4% per annum

Evolution of Tourism • Traditional destinations not yet saturated • New destinations being opened • Greater disposable incomes across wider societal groups will fuel demand • Growth rate expected to be between ~2% per annum (Europe, N America, W Africa) & ~7.5% per annum (Far East, Middle East, S Africa)

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The fastest growth is anticipated to be from the developing economies in Asia, especially those of China and India. This shift will result in Asia taking a greater share of Global GDP, rising from around 35% in 2005 to slightly over 43% by 2020. During the same period Europe’s contribution is thought to fall slightly from about 21% in 2005 to 19% by 2020.

Market segmentation & Fleet Development • More very small jets & more very large aircraft • Different growth rate across different segments Overall demand for flight movements • Expected to increase by ~4.2% per annum Network adjustment due to constraints • Lack of infrastructure at airports may constrain growth to ~3.4% per annum

The global environment affecting the demand for air transport over the next two decades is expected to continue to vary in line with the fluctuations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

However, short-term events can easily create competing pressures between the ease with which the means to supply air transport can be obtained and the ability to meet the changing nature of the demand. Consequently, although the trend is expected to be for steady growth as economic globalisation continues, the peaks and troughs of the fluctuations, together with their timing will always create uncertainty.

In addition, expectations are for:

The pace and extent of globalisation will continue to be the predominant driver for World economic growth. Between 2006 and 2020, the global GDP is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5%, but this will not be uniformly distributed geographically. Of the major developed economies, the United States, at almost 3%, is expected to outpace both the European Union, at around 2%, with Japan struggling to reach 1%.

Cargo is a fundamental part of the air transport industry and about half the intercontinental volume is carried in passenger aircraft.

Demand is concentrated between and/or within the 3 main pillars of the World’s economy, namely Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe, with typically around 60% of the World’s freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) moving within the United States. Naturally increasing commerce and further globalisation will create demand for such air cargo services, these being aligned with the growth figures outlined above.

• Populations to shift towards living in cities.

• An increase in the average age of the World’s population.

• Increased tourism, with: H Traditional destinations still able to accommodate significant growth.

H Emerging markets opening up new destinations.

H A wider group from society as a whole having larger disposable incomes.

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Stimulated by this economic growth there will clearly be an increasing demand for air transport services overall, with continual pressure on air transport operators to offer these at competitively lower prices. End customer value is reflected in the quality of the air transport services offered and received. In general, the characteristics of mobility, frequency, punctuality, accessibility and connectivity, coupled with confidence in the degree of safety and security underpinning the service, plus the approach being taken to meet other societal aspirations in a responsible manner (e.g. the impact providing the service has upon the environment) all determine the quality. However, it is the value for money embodied within the price of the product (and hence, the cost effectiveness of delivering the service) that will prevail.

In addition to being subjected to pressures from the end customers for “more for less”, air transport operators will also find it more difficult to control variability in their direct operating costs, be able to respond quickly to short-term fluctuations in demand and create a sustainable business. The price of crude oil is forecast to remain above US$50 per barrel for the next 25 years and beyond.

The overall demand for energy will increase, as a result of economic growth, and the fluctuations in the price of crude oil are ine-

vitable. This may slow economic growth, since a long-term increase of US$5 per barrel can typically result in a 0.3% reduction in GDP growth. Furthermore, global risks, such as terrorist attacks, will affect the air transport market at different levels. Last, but by no means least, there will be an increasing pressure on all air transport stakeholders to minimise the impact aviation has on the environment. To create a long-term sustainable aviation industry the air transport operators need to have a more detailed understanding of their respective business models to identify the pressures, which can be applied throughout their various value chains, including the ATM value chain.

While air transport makes a significant positive contribution to society’s quality of life, prosperity and culture, society presently expects as well that the increasing socio-economic costs of aviation’s adverse environmental impacts are minimized. Advances in technology and/or environmental performance are expected to be significant, but policy response to those opposing interests may include further constraints on the ATM system and ATM should therefore pursue every opportunity to support aviation in becoming more sustainable and achieving the optimum balance between social, economic and environmental imperatives.

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020 2.3.1 Market Development The EUROCONTROL long term forecast 20041 has been selected as the reference [Ref.25] for studying the future of air traffic in Europe at the 2020 horizon. However, it must be remembered that it forecasts only the number of IFR flights, not air traffic demand as a whole, but due consideration will be given to all of the main categories of flight, as appropriate.

The forecast considers four main scenarios, namely : • Scenario A : Greater globalisation and rapid economic growth, with free trade and open skies agreements encouraging growth in flights at the fastest rate.

• Scenario B : Business as usual, with moderate economic growth and no significant change from the status quo and current trends (Note: EU expansion is at its fastest in this scenario).

• Scenario C : Strong economies and growth, but with strong government regulation to address growing environmental issues. As a result noise and emission costs are higher, which encourages a move to larger aircraft and more hub-and-spoke operations. Trade and air traffic liberalisation is more limited.

• Scenario D : Greater regionalisation and weaker economies leading to increased tensions between regions, with knock-on effects limiting growth in trade and tourism. Consequently,

there would be a shift towards increased short haul traffic.

Security costs increase further beyond 2010, with the price of fuel being at its highest in this scenario, it reaching close to 40% of the airline operating costs by 2020 and beyond.

In order to consider the most demanding criteria which could be placed upon the future ATM System by the most optimistic of expectations for global economic growth, Scenario A has been taken as the basis for the development of the future air transport vision and the setting of the performance targets for the System.

Based upon the economic forecasts outlined in section 2.2, the total added value of air transport to the European GDP could be up to €470Bn by 2020. Clearly this equates to the largest expected increase in the amount of air traffic, with the overall European average annual growth in the number of IFR flights for the period 2006-2020 forecast to be around 4.2%2/year. However, without major expansion plans, airports will constrain this growth to around 3.4%/year.

In 2020, traffic demand is forecast to be around two times higher than in 2005. With 9.1 Mn flights having taken place in Europe in 2005, this translates into approximately 18 Mn in 2020. Some European airports will struggle to accommodate such growth and in 2020 around 60 airports are expected to be congested while the top 20 airports are saturated for 8-10 hours/day3.

1 - With updates from the 2006 version to be released in December 2006 2 - The forecast from D1 is a 4.4% average per annum over the period from 2005 to 2025, expressed in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). This is consistent with the 4.2% figure for the unconstrained demand in the number of flights.

3 - ECAC/EUROCONTROL Challenges to Growth Study 2004.

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Air Transport Framework

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020 (continued) The effect of the lack of airports’ infrastructure in constraining the demand is shown in Figure 2-3. The expectation is that the growth in air traffic will be constrained to be about 1.7 times higher than in 2005, resulting in the ability to accommodate only about 16 Mn flights. If airports’ capacity fails to meet demand, there could be a

to maximise the benefits, which can be realised from the circumstances being presented at any one time (e.g. redistributing the demand to airports which do have spare capacity).

• Enhancing the All Weather capability of the system to maintain the capacity of airports under all conditions.

IFR FLIGHTS PER YEAR IN ESRA (MILLION)

25 2.5 20 2.1 15

1.7 1.6

Effect of airport constraints in the highest growth scenario (A)

Effect in the lowest growth scenario (D)

10 1.0 Actual Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D

5

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Figure 2-3 Effects of Airport Constraints on Growth Scenarios potential yearly loss to Europe of about €50Bn of added value in 2020 growing to €90Bn and up to 1.5 Mn jobs in 2025.

As 70% of the 50 largest European airports have reached their saturation points today, a clear vision is needed of how to both create more capacity to ensure the European economy overall remains competitive and to ensure the best operations.

The obvious solution would be to simply build more runways and this must certainly be strongly progressed. However ecological and land management considerations within Europe prevent new runway capacity to be added easily. Therefore complementary measures must also be taken to mitigate against the potential impact of a lack of airport capacity. These measures should include: • Developing new technologies and procedures that can optimize the use of the available airport capacity commensurate with meeting the environmental performance requirements, which will surely accompany them.

• Improve the coordination during the tactical flight planning process of the departure and arrival times between airports to minimise the potential loss of capacity due to real-time changes in circumstances throughout the tactical flight planning process.

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• Other possibilities to provide and/or secure additional airport capacity should include measures such as engagement with local communities, improved and enforced land-use protection, as well as an increased joint civil-military use of military airfields and/or a transformation of airfields abandoned by the military.

• Establishing an inter-modal transport structure within which air transport and railway industries can compete on an equally competitive basis, providing complementary services to their customers through interconnecting international airports, regional airports and highly populated cities.

Traffic growth is forecasted to be at its strongest outside of Europe. This means inter-continental traffic flows will make up a larger portion of the overall traffic.

Figure 2-4 summarises, for scenario A, this overall expected growth in IFR flights, showing the geographical distribution of the principal traffic flows.

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Scenario A : Globalisation and Rapid Economic Growth (Thicker arrows have more traffic)

Former CIS Region North Atlantic

North West

Others East Far East

Mediterranean Mid & South Atlantic

AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IFR FLIGHTS 2003-2025

Middle East North Africa

Southern Africa

More than 5% 4% to 5% 3% to 4% ESRA

F i g u r e 2 - 4 G r o w t h b y Tr a f f i c F l o w s e x p e c t e d i n t h e E U R O C O N T R O L S t a t i s t i c a l R e f e r e n c e A r e a ( E S R A ) It is expected that some types of demand will, at times, grow faster than others. This is summarised as follows: • The market share of low-cost airlines could reach 25% within the next 6 to 7 years, but the distinction between low-cost air lines and other carriers is likely to diminish in the longer term.

• Business aviation is forecast to grow substantially, with its fleet expected to increase by 1000 aircraft in Europe within the next 15 years. EBAA reported a steady growth at around 5%/year.

• According to IAOPA, GA (mostly VFR) traffic is expected to grow steadily at an average of 2%/year up to 2020.

• Global RPKs of those European carriers, which operate inter continental services, can increase faster than their RPKs in European airspace.

• New types of demand may emerge, such as: H Air taxis providing more personalised types of air transport service using very light jets (VLJs).

H Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) being used, for example, more extensively by the military, police, and for the carriage of freight.

H The range of aircraft sizes will expand, with micro-jets appearing at one end of the scale and ultra-large jets at the other.

H The number of military air movements is not expected to increase greatly. However, the size of airspace required and the need for flexible routing options will change due to the need to operate new types of aircraft, evaluate increasingly sophisticated weapon systems and exercise their associated tactics.

As tourist destinations change, and as the service-based economy of Europe increasingly shows its ability to shift geographically, it is aviation, more than any other transport mode, which is recognised

as being able to service the changing demand. In the future aircraft operators must be able to reconfigure their network to meet the demand wherever it may be.

2.3.2 The Airspace Users Value Chain The airline industry is recovering from one of its worst crises.

Several airlines have gone out of business and in certain regions some are still facing bankruptcy. This situation raises fundamental questions about the financial sustainability of the so-called “legacy carriers” and of their associated traditional business model.

Air transport creates value, both externally to its customers and internally to those stakeholders within the air transport value chain, but investors in the industry need a satisfactory return to justify their investments. Some sectors within the chain are able to cover the cost of their capital [Ref.2], but currently the airspace users are not. A number of issues have been identified [Ref.2] that affect today’s performance and, potentially, constrain the ability of the air transport system to organise and operate at maximum effectiveness in the future. These relate to: • Achieving financial sustainability.

• Managing the expectations of the end customers when the pressure from them is for “more for less” in a liberalised, competitive market for the supply of air transport services.

• Continually managing the price of the end product with respect to their costs.

• Maximising the use of some infrastructures, which are locally saturated.

• Having to interact with today’s ATM System, which is very fragmented [Ref.2].

• Having to meet regulatory obligations, which often overlap and also are unharmonised.

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Air Transport Framework

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020 (continued) D1 concluded that some changes are needed to strengthen the value chain to the benefit of society as a whole, the end customers and the air transport stakeholders. The specific time when air traffic will be double that of today might be uncertain, but the aim must be to design the future ATM System to accommodate such growth. Because the current System functions, within some corners there might be a resistance to change. However, to prepare for the future it is in everyone’s interest to start initiating the needed changes.

It is unlikely, nor indeed necessary, to alter all parts of the air transport value chain. Neither may it be possible to directly affect some parts of it. It is considered that the best approach to strengthen it would be to alter the institutional environment (i.e., regulations, how it operates and the financial framework) in which the air transport system responds with new models to deliver the needs of the end customers.

The following summarises the main aspects that are considered to be of importance to the principal airspace user groups when considering how to shape the vision of the future ATM System.

H

H

H

business traveller, with last-minute bookings, open tickets and catering for long-haul and short-haul journeys.

The hub and spoke style of operation is, and will remain, a necessity for carriers with an air transport network. This is particularly important for long-haul services when managing the different types of customers whilst keeping fares competitively low. However, if hub airports are unable to accommodate the growth needed, the network will distort, with a possible loss of less profitable (mainly short-haul) markets.

Driven by competition and continuing liberalisation of the market, the future consolidation of legacy carriers is a continuing expectation through business failures, mergers and alliances.

Today 3 major Worldwide alliances exist which have a strong European dimension – British Airways/Oneworld, Lufthansa/Star, Air France-KLM/Skyteam. The total worldwide market share of alliances today is ~55% in terms of RPK and ~50% in terms of revenue. With new members expected, these figures will increase to ~61% and ~60% respectively.

On short haul, the flight itself is more of a commodity. The main differentiation is made through the ground service, with network services sold at a premium.

2.3.2.1 Commercial Airlines The liberalisation of world markets and the rise of the Internet in the last decade has had a fundamental impact on the global economy and the airline industry. The resulting increased competition has created customer expectations for lower prices and consequently, reduced the pricing power of the industry. To survive this change legacy carriers had to react by significantly reducing their costs and customising their products to meet customer needs.

Between 1990 and 2000 average yields fell by about a third in real terms and the airline industry responded by increasing its productivity by typically 45%. Despite this effort the operating profit never exceeded 2.9%, and ranged as low as -3.9% in 2001.

Commercial airlines order aircraft according to the future market forecasts for air transport services, but in many cases, operate within the capacity constraints of the available infrastructure at airports and the wider ATM System. This “disconnect” needs to be addressed such that the planning and implementation of the future infrastructure needed responds to the needs of the market.

To cater for the different needs of the market, and according to the infrastructure capability available, different air transport business models have evolved, resulting in different values. Further evolution of these will be inevitable, but the main characteristics and future expectations for each are summarised as follows: • Legacy carriers: H The products offered by the major airlines are adapted to all types of passenger, but the core of their business is the December 2006

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• Regional carriers: H The product tailored to the small business, short-haul market, or can be used by legacy airlines as a feeder to a hub.

H Although on a different scale to the legacy carriers, the same pressures and values prevail regarding short-haul operations.

H In a competitive environment it is not possible to serve a selected market without a minimal number of flights (and this number decreases with distance). For example, on short haul, it is not possible to compete against rail or road without having a sufficient frequency in the number of flights. This will become an increasing problem unless sufficient airspace and airport infrastructure is available in the future.

• Low-cost carriers: H The product has been created to provide point-to-point, short-haul services aimed at the individual traveller who is able to define their journey very early before departure.

H Their business model is based on a high fleet utilisation through short turn around time and strict passengers policies as well as minimum overheads.

H Similar pressures and values prevail regarding short-haul operations, but the point-to-point nature enables greater flexibility to open and close routes to respond to rapid changes in demand.

H Driven by competition and continuing liberalisation of the market, the future consolidation of low-cost carriers is a continuing expectation, primarily through business failures, mergers and take-overs.

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• Charter and “on–demand” flights: H Some traditional carriers have become “squeezed” between changes to the products offered by legacy carriers and those offered by the low-cost carriers, with some creating low-cost carrier products in order to capture a share of the market.

H A continuing significant demand for seasonally driven (e.g. to established holiday destinations), very short-term driven (e.g. to major sporting events) and “new product” driven (e.g. day trips to popular historic cities and places) capacity being sold to groups.

H Expectations are for a trend towards more longer distance flights than has been generally the case in the past.

H Some aspects and behaviours are very similar to those of General Aviation.

2.3.2.2 General Aviation and Business Aviation General Aviation (GA), and Business Aviation (BA) (in this document GA and BA should be understood to include rotorcraft, aerial work and sports aviation) enable people and goods to move in an “on demand” manner, which is quick, flexible and efficient over distances ranging from very local flight activities to intercontinental flights. Since GA and BA have a low requirement on ground infrastructure, they can operate not only at the main international airports, but also the more remote regional aerodromes. People and goods are transported for a wide variety of both commercial and private purposes. Since GA and BA aircraft can be used in a very flexible manner, in effect offering a more “personalised” form of air transport, it is expected to become increasingly more valuable to society, commerce and individuals.

In developing States such aviation is typically State-sponsored, whilst in States with a more developed economy, greater reliance is upon funding from private enterprise. For example, the business model of a GA commercial enterprise is a small company, owned by less than 4 or 5 persons, operating typically less than ten aircraft and delivering a wide range of services as outlined above.

This model is not expected to change in the next two decades. In Europe, GA, whether commercial or non-commercial, is based upon private investment and private funds for operation. However, in some States the fuel is tax-free and some support aviation clubs as they are considered of social and cultural value. While GA in Europe has stagnated over some decades because of rising costs of fuel, maintenance and regulation and because the fleet of GA power driven aircraft is aging, new aircraft types are now in production. With the advent of highly fuel-efficient engine types and advanced airframes it is expected that GA will develop at a rate of ~2 %/year up to 2020 and BA at a rate of ~5%/year. However, this will to a large extent depend on a reduction of the cost of regulation and taxation.

GA activities will continue to need large portions of the airspace in which to operate, particularly in the low altitude structure, and to

be able to gain access to airports located in closely controlled airspace, either to operate into major airports, or to peripheral, so-called reliever airports. For BA in particular, having a future ATM System, which allows access to airspace and airports without delay, will be fundamental for the viability, health and growth of this sector.

2.3.2.3 Military Aviation The strategic objectives of military stakeholders are determined by National security and defence policies, international security and defence commitments and the resulting political decisions.

Consequently, the drivers and values are different from those of the other air transport stakeholders.

Expectations are that EU Member States, whilst more closely coordinating their needs for air traffic services from a future European ATM System, will continue to retain full responsibility for their national infrastructure, plus base their requirements upon and make decisions from a sovereign national perspective. However, major enhancements in civil-military co-operation and co-ordination to facilitate meeting simultaneously military and civil needs are expected to occur to the maximum extent possible in the future. In particular, the future defence and security environment will require a more standardised and flexible ATM System where new mission profiles can be efficiently accommodated and where military contributions to the air transport value chain are fully recognized. The enhanced civil-military co-operation and co-ordination must develop new mechanisms, criteria and structures to improve ATM efficiency and cost effectiveness through a more integrated civil-military management of the European airspace, reducing fragmentation and duplication of infrastructure.

2.3.3 Airspace Users’ Requirements for Air Traffic Services from the ATM System From the characteristics, values, drivers and expectations highlighted in section 2.3.2, it is clear that in order for airspace users to capture the future market for air transport services in a sustainable manner and meet the needs of an increasingly sophisticated end customer who has greater choice, influence and purchasing power over these services, they will need to put greater pressure on their suppliers to provide “value for money”.

Despite the broadening of the customer base and the diverging nature apparent in some of their needs, the need from the airport operators and future ATM System are quite common – more capacity in terms of access to airspace and airports’ infrastructure, and a more capable ATM System than exists today.

In order to bring together, in a more detailed manner, the various characteristics of the airspace users’ needs, the notion of a socalled “business trajectory” has emerged as being central to the way in which they envisage the future ATM System performing.

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2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020 (continued) The ““business trajectory” is “the representation of the business intention of an airspace user with respect of a given flight. It is aimed at guaranteeing the best business outcome for the flight as seen from the airspace user’s perspective. At the airspace user’s discretion this outcome may be with respect to the minimum time for the flight, the minimum cost, or any other characteristic of the trajectory. Although perhaps not as obvious as for commercial airlines, business aviation, general aviation and the military also have some kind of “business” intention, even if the detailed terminology to define it, and the criteria upon which it is based, are different.

Notwithstanding such differences, the accent is on “intention” and naturally, all must be carried out in a manner which guarantees the safety of life and takes into account the need to meet environmental and security requirements.” [Ref.3] Being able to fly the flight profile, which is embodied within this trajectory, is the ultimate goal and consequently, the airspace users require the future ATM System to enable them to do so. The initial trajectory intention should no longer be constrained by legacy airspace divisions.

The business trajectory will, by guaranteeing “the best business outcome”, maximise the value for the airspace users and thus, strengthen the whole air transport value chain. It will also be sup-

ported by the business management and institutional and regulatory frameworks of the ATM System, which are structured, and incentivised to achieve the same aim.

Although all airspace users have different business models, their expectations on the provision of air traffic services and the (airside) performance of airport operators is principally focused “equally” on access, cost effectiveness, efficiency, capacity and safety. However, flexibility and predictability expectations can vary depending upon the applicable business model. These differences would be expressed in the “business trajectories” and, of course, depend upon the capabilities of the aircraft being used.

The structure and scope the airspace users’ needs as well as the characteristics embodied within the “business trajectory” are translated into the performance requirements of the future ATM System. These are expressed by the 11 KPAs as developed by ICAO [Ref.21]. Table 2.1 lists the KPAs and gives an explanation of how they will be considered and used to scope, define targets for and manage the performance of the future ATM System. There are interactions between KPAs that may result in new and revised requirements than the consideration of a single KPA at a time.

Table 2.1 : Characterisation of Airspace Users Expectations Key Performance Areas Airspace Users’ Expectations of the Future ATM System Access & Equity

The future ATM System should provide an operating environment to ensure that all airspace users have the right of access to the necessary ATM resources needed for them to fulfil their specific requirements in a safe manner.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, it is a principle, which enables the relevant performance to be achieved in other areas.

Capacity

The future ATM System should provide the capacity to meet the demand at the times when and where it is needed.

This is a key operational performance area which must be considered in conjunction with the need for efficiency, flexibility, and predictability, whilst, in particular, ensuring that there are no adverse impacts on performance in the areas of safety and environmental sustainability.

Cost Effectiveness

The price of the air traffic services provided by the future ATM System should be cost-effective with respect to meeting the individual needs of the relevant airspace user.

Efficiency

Efficiency addresses the operational and economic cost-effectiveness of flight operations from a single-flight’s perspective and will be central to achieving the environmental performance targets, which will be placed upon the future ATM System.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is at the heart of being able to achieve success through flying the business trajectory.

In addition to single flight perspective, the overall network efficiency is considered as well.

Environmental Sustainability

The lack of a high level of environmental sustainability performance could impact stakeholders’ reputation.

The future environmental system performance will be a requirement and the future ATM System must meet their obligations in this respect. Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, performance criteria will be defined as part of the requirements placed upon aviation as a whole and therefore, the contribution that the ATM System must make, and should be seen to make, to minimise the impact.

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Key Performance Areas Flexibility

Airspace Users’ Expectations of the Future ATM System Flexibility addresses the ability of all airspace users to modify the requirements they place on the future ATM System in a dynamic manner.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is also at the heart of being able to achieve success. In this case it is having the ability to make changes to the business trajectory, thereby permitting operational opportunities to be exploited as they occur.

Interoperability

The functionality and design of the future European ATM System must be based upon the use of global standards and uniform principles to ensure technical and operational interoperability of ATM Systems can be achieved.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, it is a principle, which enables the relevant performance to be achieved in other areas since, for example, failing to do this will clearly have a financial impact on aircraft equipage and hence, investment costs.

Participation

As changes to factors which will affect the performance of the future ATM System, either directly or indirectly, are identified, all stakeholders must maintain a continuous involvement in the identification, scoping, planning and implementation activities to ensure the air traffic services provided remain “fit for purpose”.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, it is a principle which enables the relevant performance to be achieved in other areas, especially with respect ensuring future changes to the ATM System are identified, scoped, planned and implemented in a manner which ensure its performance will be to the maximum benefit of all stakeholders.

Predictability

Predictability refers to the ability of the future ATM System to enable the airspace users to deliver consistent and dependable air transport services. It is essential to airspace users as they develop and operate their business trajectories.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is also at the heart of being able to achieve success by offering a high quality of service to the end customers.

Safety

Safety is afforded the highest priority in aviation and the provision of air traffic services plays a key role in ensuring overall aviation safety.

Society will always expect zero accidents from the aviation industry as a whole and performance from this perspective sets the end customers’ confidence in air transport. The lack of a high level of safety performance would impact stakeholders’ reputation and thus, influence customer choice. Improvements in safety will also impact the cost of air transport.

The safety performance of the future ATM System must play a key part in enabling aviation to meet society’s expectation and therefore, it is a key area of overall operational performance.

Uniform safety standards, risk assessments and safety management practices must be applied rigorously and systematically to the design and performance of the future ATM System to deliver high quality products.

Security

Security aspects can be considered in a very similar manner to the way in which safety has been considered. Security refers to the protection against both direct and indirect threats, attacks and acts of unlawful interference to the ATM System.

Unlawful interference can occur via direct interference with aircraft, or indirectly through interference with ATM service provision (e.g. via attacks compromising the integrity of ATM data or services) Society will always expect zero accidents and incidents due to breaches of security from the aviation industry as a whole and performance from this perspective will also set the end customers’ confidence in air transport. The lack of a high level of security performance would impact stakeholders’ reputation and thus, influence customer choice.

Improvements in security will also impact the cost of air transport.

The performance of the future ATM System must contribute to ensuring a high level of security is achieved by the aviation industry as a whole. Expectations are that this can be achieved not only by ensuring that the infrastructure which makes up the ATM System is itself resilient to attack, but that the System will provide information which can be used by other organisations who can also act to protect air transport and aviation as a whole.

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2.4 Vision of the Future Management Framework of the European ATM System for 2020 2.4.1 Overview

2.4.2 Business Management Framework of the Future ATM System

The overall vision for 2020 is of a European ATM System being managed by a single management framework, which underpins a common understanding of the System, how it must operate and a performance framework, which determines what it must deliver.

Figure1-2 gave a high-level outline of this vision and Fig. 2-5 shows in more detail the principal functions, which need to be undertaken within the management framework. The proposed fra-

2.4.2.1 Business Relationships The overall SESAR vision for 2020 is of a coherent business management framework, which manages all aspects throughout the full system lifecycle of the future European ATM System. Relative to today’s situation, the major changes envisaged are as follows:

Policy and Legislation Regulation Implementation

Enforcement

Operations Common Pan-European services

Oversight

Support to rule making

System design, planning & implementation

Core services FABs Support services CNS

AIS

MET

F i g u r e 2 - 5 P r i n c i p a l f u n c t i o n s o f t h e E u r o p e a n AT M S y s t e m m a n a g e m e n t f r a m e w o r k mework is composed of two parts: one covering the business aspects (shown as “Operations” and “System design, planning and implementation”); and the other covering the institutional/regulatory aspects (shown as “Policy and Legislation” together with “Regulation”). Each part will be described in more detail in sections 2.4.2 and 2.4.3 respectively. A single performance framework structured around the 11 KPAs described in section 2.3.3 will govern the performance of the System and the management framework as a whole.

The ATM Master Plan will be the sole vehicle, which contains the R&D activities and all other activities needed to implement all changes in the European ATM to achieve the 2020 vision. It will also be used to manage the evolution of the System beyond this date. The principles upon which the ATM Master Plan will be managed are as follows:

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• A common reference against which the business framework will deliver the air traffic services and the regulatory framework will manage compliance.

• Subjected to a process of regular review by the relevant stake holders.

• The sole reference against which all future European ATM activities are assessed.

• An ATM Performance Partnership will be created as a basis to manage the performance-driven ATM System. This partnership will be built upon a shared set of values, priorities, air transport network interactions and an agreed set of common “rules”.

• A major restructuring of air traffic service provision with the development of FABs and a new, stronger co-operative framework between ANSPs. • The progressive development of capacity to deliver air traffic services to meet the demand placed upon the ATM System and the performance enhancements required in all of the 11 KPAs. Thus, the vision is of a significant enhancement in the degree of co-operative working, bringing together airspace user operations (AUO) and aerodrome operations (AO). This to enable the ATM System to achieve ATM service delivery (ASD) that meets the performance targets set for it in each of the KPAs. As today, ATM’s primary purpose will be to ensure flight safety by contributing to and enabling aircraft separation (i.e. through performing conflict management (CM)) and the expeditious flow of traffic (i.e., manifest today as sequencing, metering and managing queues) by performing traffic synchronisation (TS) together with demand/capacity balancing (DCB) and airspace organisation and management (AOM).

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ATM will continue to comprise: • Air traffic services (including ATC, traffic information, advisory and alerting (such as support to search and rescue) for area, approach and aerodrome).

• Airspace management and air traffic flow and capacity management (ATFCM)”.

• Supporting services (CNS, MET and AIS services).

However, migration to the vision will require a significant change to the way in which such services will be organised and managed.

is depicted in Figure 2-6, which shows an outline qualitative description of how it might operate under such constrained circumstances, albeit consistently across the six constituent aspects.

The circumstances that prevail for each aspect are as follows: • Airport Capacities H A sizeable percentage of traffic (~50%) operating to and from congested airports, affecting timekeeping and consequently, a need for the ATM System to collaboratively manage variability.

2.4.2.2 ATM System Operating Model for Air Transport Network In an ideal world, one would wish to envisage air transport operating as a perfectly smooth network with sufficient capacity headroom both at airports and in the airspace, plus minimal differences between planned and actual operations. The future vision for

• Schedule Visibility H Network-wide traffic management, accommodating business trajectories, geared to streaming of traffic flows around major airports.

H A co-ordinated collective schedule / daily plan for the

Airport Capacities High % traffic from congested airports

Schedule Visibility & Integration

Airspace User Operating Variability

Network-wide traffic management geared to streaming for major termini

Minimise variability associated with flight & passenger handling to meet overall schedule

Traffic Smoothness & Prioritisation

ATS capacity Limited headroom remains designed around demand

Continued need to manage bunching

Civil-Military Co-ordination Dynamic co-ordination mechanism

F i g u r e 2 - 6 AT M S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n a c o n s t r a i n e d A i r Tr a n s p o r t N e t w o r k 2020 is to get as close to this ideal world as possible, driven by the need to enable air transport to meet the unconstrained end customer demand outlined in section 2.3. However, it is envisaged that the network will also need to cope with continuing to operate in a manner constrained by limitations relating to the amount of airspace and airports available, plus having to deal with some variability in timekeeping. This will require demand and capacity balancing to be performed throughout the network. This situation

H

busiest areas where throughput, as defined by the “performance partnership agreement”, predominates over individual business trajectories.

Airports, both those which are constrained and those with headroom, would be part of a co-operative network scheduling activity to agree scheduling levels to underpin the schedule integrity of the overall air transport network.

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• Airspace user Operating Variability H Limited possibility to reduce variability associated with flight and passenger handling to ensure these are optimised with respect to meeting the overall schedule.

transport network. A tri-partite performance “agreement” needs to set performance objectives across the design, planning and operational aspects of the future ATM System. Currently there is no explicit and broadly agreed expression of the “rules” by which the ATM industry operates with respect to its customers. The future vision is to address this shortcoming by establishing an ATM Performance Partnership built upon fundamental principles, which are universally understood and agreed between the various parties. Embodied within this “agreement” should be a common understanding of the demand-capacity relationship, of each parties “levers” of control and behaviours, and of a coherent set of value trade-offs and performance expectations.

• Civil-military Co-ordination H Enhanced to more effectively deal with tactical allocation around an optimised strategic allocation.

• Traffic Smoothness and Prioritisation H All participants in the operation of the ATM System will work collaboratively to prioritise activities and resources with the aim of smoothing traffic flows and “repairing” the network schedule where airspace and airport capacity headroom permits.

The vision is for a “partnership” that enables the airspace users’ to realise their business trajectory, recognising that different airspace users have different aims and planning horizons. In effect, the proposal is for a “super CDM” process that meets the performance objectives required through a significant increase (relative to that used today) in the amount and exchange of business and flight information. However, it does not imply the need for onerous commercial and/or legal arrangements to be put in place, but builds a common understanding of a common set of “rules”.

• ATS Capacity H Airspace capacity essentially remains designed around demand patterns, although the use of some new ATM concepts and technological solutions reduces the need to trade-off capacity with flight efficiency (i.e. more flights can be executed at a higher level of efficiency, so increasing overall network performance).

Building upon the high-level relationship outlined in Figure 2-2, Figure 2-7 illustrates the key aspects pertinent to the 3 main stakeholder groups across the 3 main time horizons for designing, planning and operating the future ATM System. All of this then adds up to deliver overall performance, which meets the expectations of all.

These are the aspects against which the performance objectives and targets for the future ATM System need to be scoped.

The challenge to the design and development of the future ATM System is to meet the needs of the future air transport network by finding solutions that recognise the limitations and trade-offs shown in Figure 2-6. These solutions then need to be evaluated against stakeholder expectations for an optimised solution to be agreed and form the basis of the ATM Master Plan.

A performance driven ATM System must be built on a performance framework that reflects a shared view of the value priorities of the respective stakeholders and their inter-relationships within the air

In summary, today’s ATM System aims to deliver value to the air transport value chain by maximising throughput throughout the air

Design

Airspace User

• Business Trajectory to define Requirement

Planning • (Early) declaration of Business Trajectories • Declare demand on airport and ATM System

Operations • Business Trajectory conformance (at various stages) • Turn-around process

+ Airport Operator

• Capability of infrastructure

• Declare airport capacity

Management of: • Stands • Runways & Taxiways • Turn-around process

+ ATM Providers

• Capability of ATM System

• Declare ATM System Capacity

• ATS delivery (airspace) • ATS delivery (airports)

= Overall Performance Capacity

Predictability

Efficiency

Flexibility

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transport network. It also assumes that a significant enhancement of value from major predictability improvements can only come from a more deterministic and rigid approach by airspace users to their operations. However, such rigidity would impose severe limitations to their commercial freedoms and significantly add to operating costs in order to strictly adhere to it. Clearly these are conflicting needs.

For the future ATM System to deliver maximum value to the air transport value chain it must perform to meet the requirements of its users in as optimum a manner as possible, these being expressed through the 11 KPAs and described in more detail in chapter 3.

2.4.2.3 Some First Thoughts on Future ATM Target Concept Following on from consideration of the vision outlined above, some key consequences emerge which must be taken into consideration when designing the SESAR Future ATM Target Concept. These are included here to ensure they form the basis of the detailed performance requirements the future ATM System must meet.

Ways must be found to: • Enhance the flexibility and adaptability of the ATM System’s capacity to meet demand such that a degree of headroom can be provided in a cost-effective manner. This is of critical importance to minimise the trade-offs between the operational KPAs. • Determine how to deal with business trajectories in the strategic, (pre-) tactical and operational phases of preparing and executing flights.

• Be able to manage within the physical constraints of the infra structure available at any time. That is, it must be able to accommodate the: H Anticipated lack of capacity headroom at congested airports.

H Inherent “natural difficulties of the physical world” associated with maintaining schedules in daily operations.

H Current aircraft speed envelope, which is anticipated to remain as is today through to 2020 and beyond.

• Optimise operations overall to minimise the impact on the environment.

• Determine the desired level of operating robustness with respect to coping with disruptive circumstances, such as the effects of bad weather.

• Determine the desired degree of resilience needed to the provision of the air traffic services and the degree of contingency required, so setting the System’s availability and leading to the architectural design requirements and the cost of providing them.

Building upon these considerations, the following are a set of statements, which indicate some first thoughts as to what needs to be the foundation for the future concept of operations within the future ATM target Concept. It is considered that these are needed to underpin the ATM Performance Partnership and the way the future ATM System would operate, as outlined above:

• The ATM System would be designed around the notion of a business trajectory: H Business trajectories reflect the business intention of the airspace users. Business trajectories are specified and agreed in a “contract” between the air and the ground. The “contract” takes into account the constraints.

H The trajectory agreed as a basis for use by the ATM System equals the user’s optimum business trajectory.

Changes are made to it only when it is necessary to comply with unavoidable airspace/airport constraints or other external constraints (e.g., weather), but the user’s preference remains as the main driver.

H Aircraft fly the FMS trajectories (where relevant), negotiated and updated in real-time.

• Increase in traffic is managed safely using: H Aircraft derived 4-D trajectories (which accurately reflect the future aircraft positions and intentions) H Delegated/distributed conflict management.

H Automated assistance to decision making.

• The ATM System is flexible, continuously matching traffic demand by: H Optimising airspace usage.

H Minimising ATC, airport operator and airspace user related restrictions.

H Maximising airport throughput (e.g. operating closer to the maximum runway and gate capacity).

• The ATM System operates in a collaborative manner: H Airspace users, air traffic service providers and airport operators are integrated into the ATM decision-making process to ensure decisions best meet the requirements of all stakeholders in the System.

H All actors have access to all relevant information necessary for efficient decision-making.

• The concept of operations around which the future ATM System is designed shifts from a philosophy of “management by tactical intervention” to a more strategic “management by planning and tactical intervention by exception” H However, to allow for some operational flexibility, and given that only a proportion of actual operations are known at the strategic phase of planning, an estimation of short notice/last minute operations has to be recognised and appropriate provisions made during strategic planning. This will permit actual traffic flows to be optimised and in-flight trajectory modifications to be made reflecting the user needs in real-time.

• The ATM System makes full use of the capabilities of modern aircraft H Integrating the airborne and ground capabilities for maximum efficiency and safety of the total network.

H Considering the characteristics, capabilities and limitations of its human operators, including their interaction with the systems overall.

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• The ATM System should be robust and resilient H Negotiated 4-D trajectories should be flexible enough to absorb slight perturbations due, for example, to weather variations.

H Robust solutions should be provided for degraded modes of operation as well as for prevention and mitigation of errors.

H The ATM System should be trusted by society and national governments that it is secure, resilient and well protected against any unlawful activities that could potentially cause disruption to air transport.

• Air traffic flying into capacity constrained airports is synchronised well before the destination H This to avoid holding, manage variability and smooth the overall flow of traffic.

• Global interoperability is ensured at the technical systems level as well as the procedure level.

• Improvements in ATM security will be achieved through the col laborative support of the ATM System with the relevant civil and military authorities, using agreed information and communications technology security components in the design of the ATM System.

• The management of conflicts is performed in accordance with the ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept [Ref.21].

• Airspace and airports are managed and operated as one continuum.

• The basis of the ATM System’s Operating Model will be to maximise flexibility and minimise restrictions throughout the air transport network, since these are paramount to meeting the requirements.

• All airspace users are afforded access to and use of airspace H This will be facilitated by affordable and cost-beneficial airborne equipage, in order to enable the safe and effective performance of their particular type of operation.

• Enlargement of controlled airspace H When addressing this aspect, especially in the vicinity of major airports, GA’s need for access is fully taken into account in the decisions.

• Requirements for communications and surveillance equipment to be carried on aircraft engaged in GA VFR and IFR operations.

2.4.2.4 Main Tasks of the Business Management Framework Building upon the “Operations” and “System design, planning and implementation” blocks identified in Figure 2-7, it is envisaged that the business management framework and the management activities within it will be structured to perform the following principal functions with respect to the future ATM System: • System Planning - the main objectives of this function are to: H Specify and maintain the performance requirements of the users of the System.

H Ensure the System meets the performance requirements.

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H

H

H

H H

Build and maintain a common ATM Master Plan, which can gain the commitment of all stakeholders at all levels of the future governance regime.

Ensure the synchronisation of the deployment of component parts within the System can be achieved to assure maximum efficiency and benefits can be realised.

Address issues related to the fragmentation of the current systems and ease future evolution.

Coordinate and plan research and validation activities.

Coherently align the changes needed to implement the System with the approach needed to pre-finance them, and vice versa.

In performing this function a number of constraints and assumptions are considered to apply and these are as follows: • Safety considerations must be fully incorporated within the planning approach.

• A co-operative approach must be taken which balances the political needs, the social aspects and the business drivers and constraints, through the setting of the performance targets for each of the 11 KPAs. • Global interoperability must be maintained.

• The wider aspects of aviation as a whole, and especially those of the military and non-commercial aviation, will be part of the System.

The principal roles and responsibilities associated with performing this function are to meet the above objectives, whilst managing within the constraints and continuously testing the assumptions to ensure the planning remains appropriate to meeting the business needs of the users of the future ATM System. This must be done by ensuring stakeholder-wide consultation, buy-in and agreement is achieved to the maximum extent possible with respect to the ATM Performance Partnership agreement. All ATM stakeholders are expected to participate in this function, with the resulting plan being passed to the Regulator for agreement and approval as appropriate.

• System Design and Co-ordination - the objectives of this function are to: H Create conditions for the ATM System to evolve in an efficient and effective way through the use of a single, open architecture and a set of common standards to which all sub-systems and equipment must comply.

H Address fragmentation and ease future evolution.

H Design sub-systems that meet the needs and constraints of particular stakeholder groups within the overall ATM Performance Partnership and through the ATM System as a whole, proposing and coordinating ATM R&D accordingly.

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In performing this function a number of constraints and assumptions are considered to apply and these are as follows: • Safety remains the paramount consideration.

• Environmental impact needs to be considered.

• Interoperability must be fully incorporated.

• A great deal of concept refinement and procedure development is still taking place, which makes the system design an iterative and continuously adaptive process.

• A design must be used which enables the supply of technical support services (e.g., such as CNS, AIS, MET) to be based upon a competitive procurement approach wherever and whenever possible.

• The architectural design of the future ATM System will be sufficiently detailed and robust since the integration of the various sub-systems will be a key critical challenge.

• The design of the future ATM system architecture shall be managed centrally.

• There will be a need for strong coordination of the design and development of common products.

• States will be flexible in resolving civil/military allocation issues in the interests of maintaining maximum network efficiency, provided their core mission requirements are secured and their training conditions satisfactory.

• High level airspace design rests at the policy/legislative levels.

• Significant levels of resources and effort will be required to validate and prove system design proposals are robust before they are submitted to the Regulator.

• Close coordination with international standards bodies will be required.

• Research activities need to be closely managed and coordinated, making the most efficient use of industry and public funds.

The nature of the principal roles and responsibilities of this function are very similar to those for the planning function, especially with regards to ensuring all stakeholders are involved.

• Implementation of ATM System changes - the key challenge of this function is to build and deploy changes in a consistent and coherent manner, which is synchronised with delivering the benefits required by its users. This will require significant coor dination and an extremely high programme management capability.

In performing this function a number of constraints and assumptions are considered to apply and these are as follows: • The system(s), which will make up the overall ATM System, will need to be certified against the appropriate performance requirements.

• Putting the changes into operational service in a timely manner will be a significant challenge and due consideration of this extremely difficult aspect must be at the centre of the programme management.

• In conjunction with the above, the training of staff will also be a critical issue.

• Legacy systems can be an issue, particularly for the Military and GA. • Integration will be a major challenge, especially when interfacing to and/or incorporating legacy systems - particularly those related to fulfilling the needs of the Military and GA. • Regulatory authorities (e.g., EASA, civil and military NSAs) will be responsible for certification.

• Regulation authorities are responsible for the licensing of services.

Production and deployment are clearly the principal roles and responsibilities associated with this function. However, the costs and risks are principally borne by the air transport industry as a whole.

The significant issue of coordinating deployments coupled with the potential constraints imposed by individual State processes may point towards the need to use an impartial, expert body to act as a “conductor” in order to facilitate the timely integration of new functionality and the roll-out of the detailed changes needed to implement the future ATM System in a synchronised manner.

• Operating Functions of the ATM System - the operations function of the future ATM System covers all of the aspects associated with providing the air traffic services and the necessary technical support services from the infrastructure, which makes up the System. These can be segmented into three main types of operations, namely: H Common air traffic services from the ATM System and technical support services within it. These relate to, for example, demand and capacity balancing (DCB), airspace organisation and management (AOM) and system-wide information management such that the objectives would include operating: * An optimum airspace structure throughout Europe. * A pan-European process balancing of demand and capacity.

H Core services optimised, for example, within specific airspace blocks.

H The remaining technical support services needed to underpin the provision of the common and core services (such as those related to AIS, MET and CNS - for example using a pan-European satellite navigation information service).

All such services will be defined in more detail as part of the development of the overall SESAR Future ATM Concept, this being the subject of the SESAR Milestone Deliverable D3.

In performing this function a number of constraints and assumptions are considered to apply and these are as follows: • Safety considerations will be paramount.

• Consideration of the environmental implications will play an increasingly important role.

• All services are provided at fair4 market rates.

4 - Definition of the term “fair” will be part of the performance requirements.

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In line with the other aspects outlined above, it is reasonable to assume that the air transport industry as a whole will fulfil the roles and responsibilities commensurate with performing the operations function. However, in the case of certain common or panEuropean functions currently performed by public bodies5, further analysis is required. Conflicts of interest clearly need to be avoided and there are issues concerning “neutrality” and the provision of services for holistic benefits, rather than for individual benefit.

In addition there are issues of guarantee of service, liabilities and underwriting in cases of corporate insolvency or crisis situations.

In cases where services are likely to be subject to “competition for the market”, rather than “competition in the market”, options should not preclude public bodies from operating such services if they can offer levels of performance which are competitive with those which can be provided by industry. Other management structures could include the use of joint public/private management structures and/or concessions to industry. The creation of a form of operating company as currently foreseen in article 2.5 of the EUROCONTROL revised convention, or a JU like body should also be considered.

2.4.2.5 A Possible Vision of Restructuring of ATS provision Driven by the need to meet performance targets set for the 11 KPAs, the following outlines a vision for the possible restructuring of air traffic service provision in the future.

FABs, established as part of the SES initiative, are seen as one of the main vehicles to improve ATM System performance, so reducing the impact of fragmentation on the cost of air traffic service provision. These will initially develop through regional arrangements between States and ANSPs, but leading to further ANSP cooperation, alliances and/or mergers. Ultimately FABs are used as the basis for establishing agreements as part of the ATM Performance Partnership between the ANSPs, airspace users and airport operators.

Consequently, a vision of air traffic service provision restructuring could be as follows: • The 34 National ANSPs providing services in the FABs will have been combined into a small number of ATS consortia.

• From the existing en-route and approach ATC units of today, a smaller number of units (for which the optimal size and number will still be the subject of further studies) will deliver the economies of scale and improved flight efficiency through the delivery of air traffic services using (in terms of today’s airspace structure) flow-oriented sectors and routes which are optimal in their design and thus, (potentially) independent of national boundaries.

• From the plethora of the various technical systems which are in-service today, the future ATM System will be based on the use of a small number (typically 3 or 4) highly interoperable, modularly expandable technical platforms.

• Further economies of scale will be realised through moving away from the nationally-oriented ANSP-based approach, to the provision of demand driven (e.g., on a regional or pan-European basis) communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS) infrastructure enabled by the development of new technologies. These technical support services could be provided by a limited number of regional and pan-European CNS suppliers.

• In order to overcome the defragmentation issue in Europe it is essential that the coordination of ATM System design, planning and coordination of implementation is achieved through a single function ensuring full consideration of civil and military interest.

2.4.2.6 Some Aspects of Future Vision The following addresses some aspects of subjects within the future vision for ATM, which outline how they are likely to be scoped and managed in order to meet performance targets set in the 11 KPAs: Safety It is envisaged that the way in which the future ATM System performs will be regulated and managed as follows: • In terms of safety performance, clearly defined and validated “design targets” will be established, together with performance indicators for measuring this aspect of the ATM System.

• A clear regulatory structure will exist which has an organisational hierarchy with an associated set of clear objectives.

This will be accompanied by an appropriate, consistent and integrated set of regulations, which have been formulated incorporating stakeholder consultation on achievability and cost.

• Global safety management capability indicators will be established. A continuous process of improving the safety management systems and safety culture of air traffic service providers’ will be reflected in a continuous improvement in their maturity levels, commensurate with meeting the targets set for these indicators.

The proactive approach to managing safety requires that ATM stakeholders develop and share a deeper understanding of potential process failures to allow vulnerabilities to be anticipated and designed out. This is of particular importance since the future ATM Target Concept is likely to involve a greater degree of automated system support to the tasks being performed by humans. The vision is of a System that minimises the occurrence of errors (through the use of appropriate HMIs, procedures, automation tools support, etc.), but recognises the continued scope for human-errors and ensures that they do not lead to accidents.

Thus, the future ATM Target Concept design must focus on solutions, which eliminate known sources of error and identify mitigation for potential sources of future errors. Comprehensive independent safety nets to help safeguard against potential losses in aircraft separation are likely to play an increasingly important role.

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Human aspects

Environment

In order to meet the performance targets set for the future ATM System, it is envisaged that the future ATM Target Concept will shift from an approach, which is based upon a “management by tactical intervention” approach, to a more strategic one, which is “management by planning and tactical intervention by exception”.

Making this shift will need a greater degree of automation and an increased integration of airborne and ground roles, functions and technologies. However, the human will remain the most flexible and creative element to manage the overall System, including responding to threats, errors and unpredictable events.

ATM shall support society as a whole, delivering its maximum contribution to European sustainability by achieving the optimum balance between social, economic and environmental imperatives.

In order to deliver this vision up to 2020 and beyond, a number of required changes have been identified.

The above mentioned changes will be accompanied by an extensive change management process that proactively integrates human factors, social dialogue and all relevant aspects of recruitment, training, competence and staffing throughout the entire process of system developments and their implementation. All of this will be reflected and firmly embedded in European social policy and legal structures with the full involvement of social partners at all levels.

Security Society and especially National governments must have a high degree of confidence that the future ATM System is secure, resilient and well protected against any unlawful activities that could potentially cause disruption to air transport.

The vision for 2020 and beyond is that this will be explicitly achieved through the following goals: • The general goal of ATM security, being a part of aviation security, is to determine effective mechanisms and procedures to enhance the prevention and response of ATM to major security threats that have been assessed as to how their effect on flight operations.

• Enhancing the security of the ATM System will have a positive effect, both on the prevention of incidents and on the ability to respond to acts of unlawful interference. It includes security measures adopted by all parts of the ATM System, both technical and operational. In particular, they include fostering of security awareness, improving the dissemination of security information, developing ATM security standards and procedures and addressing all security requirements in especially the Communication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) domains and for the ATM infrastructure.

• More effective co-operation between ATM and the relevant civil and military authorities should be achieved. This to be done by the enhancement of procedures and communication, whilst complying with national security and defence requirements.

There is an urgent need for the European aviation industry including ATM to speak with one co-ordinated voice on environmental issues, inside the overall sustainability balance. This collaboration, harmonisation and spreading of best practice is facilitated by a pan European cross industry process for driving aviation sustainability. This process consists in a consolidation of existing aviation sustainability initiatives. This collaborative arrangement provides agreed positions on key sustainability issues and forms the vehicle for effective communication of these positions to regulators (e.g. EC, EASA) and international bodies (e.g. ICAO, other non European States). The ICAO Balanced Approach6 will be fully reflected in all measures taken.

In the context of increasing societal mobility demand for air transport services, societal sensitivity to impact of noise, local air quality and climate change issues will continue to grow. Airport operators, airspace users, manufacturers and ANSPs will have to work collaboratively at the local level to build trust and support among airport neighbouring communities. These communities should be fully integrated in aviation decision making processes.

Environmental sustainability in aviation is to be defined through a ‘licence to operate agreement7’ between the aviation industry and society.

ACARE gives objectives for future aircraft delivered around 2020 and for which JTI "clean sky" initiative is proposed within FP7. The scientific community must work to resolve the remaining uncertainties about the industry’s impact in terms of noise, local air quality and climate change (e.g. contrails). There will then be certainty in terms of measurement of ATM impacts, which will ensure transparent decision making that accounts for all likely sustainability outcomes.

Aviation is expected to become a carbon neutral industry, through its inclusion in a global emissions trading scheme. The inclusion of CO2 costs will increase the cost of air travel per passenger km; ATM will have to deliver more efficient point to point routes and vertical profiles to ensure that the industry as a whole can reduce costs and make air transport affordable to the society that demands its services. The harmonised implementation of flexible use of airspace in the whole ECAC area will enable more direct routes.

6 - Also captured in EU Directive 2002/30/EC 7 - The license is to be interpreted as “Having reached the conditions to operate without restrictions, because all stakeholders (airports, airspace users, manufacturers and ANSPs) work collaboratively and communities are in the decision making process, avoiding various oppositions and then constraints.

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ATM will provide harmonised implementation of advanced low noise routings and techniques (with local flexibility in implementation) as a method of reducing the impact of noise on communities to the greatest extent possible. These low noise routings will have to be designed with the trade-offs between noise and emissions and will have to be supported by an effective and consistent land use planning system that is fully integrated with airport development policies.

Despite growth in air traffic, the number of people exposed to aircraft noise is expected to decrease. The aviation industry, through active participation in ICAO CAEP, secures challenging new noise stringencies reflecting aviation external environmental regulation and noise/emission technology achievements, including specific ATM aspects, bearing in mind that in addition focused R&D will accelerate reduction of aircraft/engine noise and emission ‘at source’.

• Assuming that the EU will not be a federal state by 2020, defence will still mainly be a competence of Member States.

National States will probably further increase co-operation at European level with a view to improve defence capacities and synergies between national armies, in particular through common development projects carried out by the European Defence Agency (EDA). Additionally, a "gradual communitarisation" of certain aspects of aviation security policy may be possible.

Nevertheless the responsibility for ATM for the air forces of Member States will most probably remain an exclusive national competence. Consequently, co-ordination at European level will be dealt with only through purely intergovernmental mechanisms, (i.e. based on unanimous voting and with a limited involvement of the European Commission). Even though civil-military coordination is essential regulation of civil and military ATM in 2020 might still be based on different legal instruments.

2.4.3.2 Regulatory and Oversight functions in 2020

All ATM stakeholders will implement an environmental management system.

The market demand for air transport will grow and ATM, through SESAR implementation (and globally), will deliver corresponding service enhancement in response, and key ATM decisions will be subject to transparent impact assessment to select the most suitable option.

2.4.3 ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework This section starts with a look ahead at possible evolutions of the EU (regulatory) landscape followed by a description of the functions to be covered by the future regulatory framework. Finally the requirements of the future safety and security regulatory functions are described in more detail.

2.4.3.1 Future EU landscape When developing a long-term vision of regulatory and oversight synergies in Europe, it is useful to consider briefly possible milestones for the future landscape of the EU up to 20208. In summary, it can be said that the EU in 2020 will probably not be very different from the EU of today: • An enlargement of the EU to 30 or more Member States is possible, and it is expected that non-Member States will also apply the SES regulations.

• It is to be expected that gradual institutional changes will take place, eventually on the basis of some revised EU Constitution.

If any such Constitution was implemented it is not expected to have a severe impact on SESAR, but its terms should be borne in mind when developing institutional scenarios for 2020.

Within the overall European Community context as outlined above, it is now analysed how regulatory and oversight functions may develop over the coming years at national and EU level.

Regulation At national level, it should be recalled that in all Member States the body of administrative law grew exponentially after the Second World War, which led to overregulation in many cases. For this reason, de-regulation became an objective of national legislation in order to ensure that regulation is only adopted where it is absolutely necessary. Additionally, self-regulation of certain sectors was introduced in many Member States.

Recent trends Another trend affecting regulation in certain sectors (such as Telecom) that can be expected to continue up to 2020 is the progressive liberalisation of activities, which historically have been performed by state-owned monopolies. In order to avoid the abuse of significant market power and to ensure societal expectations, it was necessary to introduce sector-specific regulation, often of a very technical nature. Sometimes, this has resulted in the need for additional technical regulation, supported by the establishment of regulatory bodies.

The ATM context The current trend in ATM is that public bodies are increasingly concentrating on the role of regulator and relying on corporatised entities to assume the responsibilities of investment, safety management development and service provision. While some States considered the opportunity to privatize these corporatised service providers, other States consider that these entities shall remain in the public sector.

8 - It is realised that elements of EU law can be applied anywhere but unless a State is a member of the EU it is not subject to the whole EU legislation.

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The current status is that SES recognises a functional separation9 between regulation and service provision and enables trans-national service provision10. Whilst noting that further liberalisation of ATS is anticipated by some stakeholders, it is recognised that the provision of ATS is connected with the exercise of the powers of a public authority, which are not of an economic nature justifying the application of the Treaty rules of competition11.

Regulatory Oversight It is to be examined how regulatory oversight will develop up to 2020. In this context, it should be reiterated that the Community can impose sanctions if its rules are violated and that "enforcement shall be governed by the rules of civil procedure in force in the State in the territory of which it is carried out12". The EC does not have its own police force and no criminal court exists at EC level.

Classic forms of regulatory oversight will therefore continue to depend on the cooperation between the EU and its Member States, even if the rule making itself will be increasingly shifted to the European level, with the Member States being held responsible for the application of the EU law.

Finally, it is to be expected that alternative forms of regulatory oversight will be further developed in the EU. In particular concession contracts, as used for the Galileo system, could be used to ensure the fulfilment of public policy objectives. These concession contracts could contain incentive and penalty schemes, which would allow for a more efficient achievement of public goals.

ments for ANSPs are likely to evolve as the ANSP industry evolves. The institutional framework will therefore need to be adaptable.

EC Workshop on the future of Aviation Regulation The most recent contributions to this debate are the EC orientations as expressed in the conclusions of the EC Workshop13 on the future of Aviation Regulation.

As a conclusion I [Mr. Barrot] would advance the view that we need to continue to work towards a comprehensive EU aviation system, where the EU institutions including the Commission, working closely with the Member States, take overall responsibility for the public interest. I see the EU’s role resting on four pillars: • EASA – in partnership with the Member States - is to develop into the ultimate safety authority following a “Total system approach” to aviation.

• EUROCONTROL is to develop, under the EU umbrella, into the overall centre of expertise for the aviation system, supporting the Commission and States.

• As has been the case in SESAR, cooperative industry structures should be encouraged, wherever possible, to take responsibility for the operation of parts of the aviation system that require strong coordination, under clear man dates to be given by the EU and under the watchful eye of a “design authority” to ensure consistency.

• Member States and associated European countries, working individually or in groups, will continue not only to work within the EU in developing the regulatory framework, but also to ensure its effective application through their proximity to the operators.

Assignment of functions to the layers of regulatory organisation As the future ATM System develops the requirement for national regulation will also need to change. For instance, if ANSPs merge into organisations providing services in the airspace over more than one State, the national regulatory organisations of those States would have to co-operate or merge in some way to avoid duplication. This would be particularly important if the ANSP providing a service had no physical base on the ground within the State where the service is being provided (this might be possible using space based CNS infrastructure).

Alternatively, if the ANSP activities are unbundled into service provision and equipment provision elements then the situation could arise where one service provider could use the equipment of several infrastructure providers in several different States and one equipment provider could provide CNS services to several service providers. This situation would favour a European conformance assurance process for the service provision and elements of a national oversight function for the equipment providers.

The conclusion is that the ideal institutional arrangements for ensuring conformance with ATM regulatory require-

While the SESAR Consortium views on regulatory aspects are addressed in chapter 2, it is not the purpose of D2 to elaborate on the above conclusions. The interpretation and further development of these conclusions are being considered and followed-up by the EC high-level group, composed of representatives from the aviation community.

2.4.3.3 Tasks of the ATM regulatory function The objective of the “Regulation function” is to propose regulation that balances society expectations with the need to develop, operate and grow a sustainable European air transport system. The expectation is that the “Regulation function” would set rules, as necessary, in order to achieve the key performance objectives.

An important aspect will be the interface and dialogue with the “Operations function” and the “System Planning and Implementation function” (refer to Figure 2-5). In such a technically complex area, this is challenging and is further complicated by the large numbers of actors with competing and potentially diverging views.

9 - See Regulation (EC) No 549/2004 {Framework Regulation} Article 4.

10 - See Regulation (EC) No 550/2004 {Service Provision Regulation} Article 7.6.

11 - See Regulation (EC) No 550/2004 {Service Provision Regulation} Recital 5.

12 - See European Economic Area Agreement Article 110 13 - See http://ec.europa.eu/transport/air_portal/2006_09_20_conference_en.htm

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In addition the “Regulation function” would, in coordination with the “Operational function” and the “System Planning and Implementation function”, propose the overall system framework14 of the future ATM System.

Additional areas for regulation over and above the safety and security regulatory functions, which are detailed in sections 2.4.3.4 and 2.4.3.5 are: Economics: To support the Economic regulation of ATM service provision. The level of support will depend on the level of delegation from the Policy and Legislative function. As a minimum it would be expected to: • Support and set measures to assist the implementation of the ATM Master Plan by all stakeholders including the policy for charging and incentives.

• Propose structural changes to the ATM Performance Partnership in order to increase system performance and efficiencies including the advice to the EC. Operational Performance15: To propose the development of ANS performance measures, including target setting, to the “Policy and Legislative function” (see Figure 2-5) for evaluating performance. The Performance Framework introduced in chapter 3 will provide an initial assessment of the key performance areas and associated indicators.

Environment: To promote a level playing field with other transport modes in order to avoid that aviation is under more stringent environmental requirements16. To harmonise local and currently divergent environmental regulations.

Airspace Policy: To support the Policy and Legislative functions to assure the management of airspace (e.g., FAB and airspace design), taking into account all air activities and the regulations protecting certain volumes, such as those for military usage.

Framework Design: To act as the System Framework regulator including the “ownership” and maintenance of the ATM Master Plan once it is adopted by the Transport Council. To define the high level design, including architecture and interoperability, in partnership with all stakeholders. To approve the detailed system design provided by the System Design, Planning and Implementation function. To manage the standardisation process and initiation, as appropriate, of the development of new standards.

Spectrum Policy: To ensure that aviation makes best usage of its allocated spectrum as it is viewed as a valuable commodity in the 21st Century. There is thus continued pressure from other industries for aviation to release spectrum for other commercial applications.

R&D policy: To support the Community in the development of ATM R&D policy and initiatives.

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Interfacing to ICAO: To closely coordinate with international and regional regulation entities in order to ensure global interoperability.

Licensing: To issue licenses for operators for ATM service provision.

Enforcing: To enforce the implementation of decisions as set out in the regulatory aspects of the ATM Master Plan and making use of a process similar to the existing ECIP/LCIP and to monitor progress17.

In seeking the above objectives the regulatory function, whilst continuously responding to State requirements, works closely with the Industry in order to assure that rules are fair, proportionate and ensure a level playing field.

2.4.3.4 Safety Regulation The topic of safety in SESAR comprises the three main aspects of safety regulation, safety management and safety performance.

This section deals solely with ATM safety regulation.

ATM safety regulation is a specific form of regulation with safety as its clear and only aim and is carried out in the public interest.

In safety regulation, safety is the end in itself, and should not have any conflict of interest with other non-safety objectives.

ATM safety regulation in Europe will be based on invariant basic regulatory principles, while having to address all structural and implementation issues necessary to support the future ATM concept as developed by SESAR. The main responsibilities and tasks in ATM safety are divided as follows: • The prime responsibility for the safety of a service or product rests with the service provider or designer/producer.

• All service providers and designers/producers have a duty of care to take all reasonable precautions to ensure that their services or products are safe. The duty of care involves to have a sound, logically inferred, traceable approach to safety that also takes into account transitional aspects.

• The standards of safety to be achieved should be authorized and monitored (i.e. oversight) by a competent body acting in the public interest, which is independent of service providers and designers/producers.

• The standards of safety to be achieved should be defined at an appropriate common level.

As part of the Single European Sky the EC has already begun the process of restructuring the ATM safety regulatory framework in Europe. It is envisaged that this process will be complete by 2020 and that the following key issues will have been met.

14 - Drawing an analogy with real estate development the concept of urbanisation is an example of how the regulator sets out the overall system framework, e.g. the urbanisation plan and a number of very specific regulations for buildings. The builders, architects and homeowners are free to develop within these regulations.

15 - This area of regulation covers the more physical attributes of the system, such as capacity, flexibility, predictability etc.

16 - Even though the SES Regulations contain only two explicit references to the environment the consideration of the applicability of the general environmental regulations to the Air transport are an essential element of the overall ATM performance.

17 - By making use of a process similar to the existing ECIP/LCIP.

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Structural issues: • A clear regulatory organisational hierarchy including roles and responsibilities.

• Regulators should maintain the necessary expertise to dis charge their legal duties efficiently and effectively.

• Safety regulatory requirements and standards of enforcement should be consistent across the whole European region and approvals, licenses and certifications should be transportable.

• Safety regulators should maintain a transparent decision mechanism that fully involves all affected stakeholders.

Implementation issues: • Regulation must be appropriate (and periodically reviewed) to the organisations being regulated and the targeted safety objectives.

• Safety requirements for different elements of the ATM System should take full account of the safety requirements applied across the whole system.

• Safety regulation should always be clear about the safety objective that needs to be achieved, and not unduly prescriptive.

• New safety regulation compliance must be clear and the costs and benefits of compliance must have been assessed.

These key issues should also be considered by the military and a clear regulatory interface between civil and military authorities is required to mitigate risks.

2.4.3.5 Security regulatory framework requirements With the extension of the threat spectrum there is a requirement to extend and integrate the respective regulation on ATM security.

This will build upon existing security initiatives including the establishment of baseline standards and a formal security framework (including standards setting, common risk assessment, audit process and compliance) for ATM across Europe.

Harmonised regulations at ATM level should be established in order to ensure the implementation and effective operations of ATM security.

European mandatory regulation on measures shall only be used to meet requirements for ATM security where the effect of voluntary means by uncoordinated national action, industry standards or guidance material is inadequate.

Public funding and governance should reflect the public interest with respect to the protection of airspace and critical ATM infrastructure at national and European level.

2.4.4 Subjects of Common Interest A number of important subjects, wider ranging by nature and impacting both the institutional and regulatory and business management frameworks, are described in further detail.

2.4.4.1 Decision Making requirements in the future ATM System framework A dynamic working relationship should exist between the business management and institutional and regulatory frameworks, not only to ensure the appropriate transparency of their activities, but also which facilitates undertaking collaborative working practices that are driven by the common aim of realising benefits for the air transport industry as a whole. The key principles of the decision making process are to: • Reduce complexity with clear identification and separation of the respective roles of government, institutions and industry for the development, deployment, implementation and maintenance of the ATM Master Plan: H The underlying principle would be that Contracting States would continue to be responsible under the Chicago Convention for the provision of ATM in their airspace by whatever supplier they choose.

H All stakeholders have to be fully committed at the top level in this process. A mechanism should be established to ensure that these engagements are maintained. Coordination with the military will have to be assured at this level.

H The stakeholders (ANSPs, Airport 0perators, Airspace users (including GA), aviation and supply industry) making up the aviation industry would assume greater responsibility for managing the development, deployment and post-deployment phase (dependent on their degree of direct involvement).

Co-ordination with the military will have to be assured at this level.

H A transparent and impartial process would be required for integrating and balancing the requirements of the different sectors of industry. This would be necessary due to the potential for conflict arising from, inter alia, different stakeholder business cycles, investment profiles and ownership issues.

Some means of achieving balance between these would be required to avoid continual recourse to the government level, which would disrupt the decision-making processes.

H Defining and managing the interfaces and consultation arrangements between the government and industry levels would be as important as defining their relative roles and responsibilities. The consultation processes should establish a clear understanding of the implications of commitment and, where appropriate a clearly defined identification of actions and timescales resulting from any commitment to ensure an in-time implementation. Incentives for early implementation and/or penalties for late implementation can be investigated for that purpose.

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• Eradicate duplication and overlaps between the European Institutions, European Standardisation bodies, and the national aviation authorities: H The national aviation authorities must be brought to the same “best in class” level so that the European institutions can rely upon their ability to carry out at national level, or at regional level working together, the responsibilities necessary for the safe and efficient implementation of the ATM Master Plan.

H There should be clear divisions established identifying who is responsible for what and the necessary interfaces should be developed, implemented and maintained.

H Communicate widely and continuously the ATM Master Plan as a living document so that all can recognise and understand it, ensuring the timely awareness of stakeholders (e.g. airport operators, general aviation) who are not directly involved in activities but whose business(es) will be impacted by implementation.

appropriate competence in leadership and management, responsibility and commitment. Social Partners’ participation will be better orchestrated and will contribute to successful change and transition processes by making best use of available information and best practices. At local level, Social Partners representing the employees must receive the support and resources required to effectively perform their work.

Social Partners, representing the employees, will be consulted before decision-making and will work in partnership with the employer from the design to the operational stage, ensuring that social issues are adequately identified, addressed and resolved.

The scope of the social dialogue will embrace all relevant social security and working conditions, work organisation, work and safety culture, health and well-being, age and demographic factors. They are properly considered and managed and lead to a new

Social dialogue as a System Outputs

Inputs Environment

• Political

Actors

• Employers

Processes

• Collective bargaining

Outcomes

• Collective agreement

• Legal • Participation • Economic

• Trade unions

• Societal

• Governments

• Industrial action • Settlement of disputes

• Labour legislation

Productivity, employment job security, labour peace… commitment, motivation…

Impacts

Figure 2-8 Social Dialogue as a System 2.4.4.2 Social Dialogue The future SESAR Development and Deployment process will be successful only if Social Partners are involved and participate in all phases of the change. A well managed, elaborated, and smooth Social Dialogue change process accepted by all parties is paramount to find balanced, sustainable and feasible solutions in times of conflicting targets. It will prevent one-sided solutions and as such avoids social conflicts and industrial actions.

The figure 2-8 ‘Social Dialogue as a System’ describes the principle way in which Social Dialogue will be implemented and managed at European, national and local levels.

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and efficient way of working and interacting between Social Partners.

The social consequences of the required improvements and changes will be locally different and require specific actions. The principle that ‘there is no one overall best solution’ applies in full as long as Social Dialogue at local level is established and works.

Working conditions at local level will be successfully balanced against legislation and daily/seasonal requirements for safe, effective, flexible and efficient work procedures including social aspects.

European legislation, adapted at national level, ensures that minimum social and working conditions and standards are fully respected for staff working shifts in the European ATM.

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2.4.4.3 Financing aspects It is expected that by 2020 economic and financial analysis of the ATM Master Plan investments is fully integrated with other activities related to ATM planning and operations. Cost benefit modelling and analyses will become a full part of the decision criteria for investment decision ensuring: • Transparency and stakeholder involvement for all stakeholders groups.

• Project life-cycle uncertainty reduction.

• Risk measurement.

• Decision support.

• Traceability through the decision making process.

Funding The present system of funding ATM costs of the ANSPs through user charges (with economic regulation, price settings of charges and the use of incentives) will remain the principal18 system of funding in Europe irrespective of the financing methods chosen. Although ICAO Doc 9082/7 states that pre-funding of projects "may be accepted in specific circumstances where this is the most appropriate means of financing long-term, large-scale investment, provided that strict safeguards are in place this possibility is not (yet) foreseen in the EUROCONTROL charging principles.

Financing the ATM System By 2020 the financing mechanisms for the implementation of the future ATM Master Plan will, in general, be dependent on the governance structure and model of the development and deployment phase organisation(s), the asset allocation principles connected to it and associated financing mechanisms.

In focusing the proposed vision of financing of the SESAR Deployment Phase, financial scenarios have been developed in order to meet the following objectives: 1 To describe a possible financing mechanism that avoids an increase in the unit-rate due to peak investment costs at the beginning of ATM System implementations.

2 To indicate the dependency of assets / rights and guarantees / funding back in a financing model especially if more extensive usage of capital market is planned.

3 To indicate the dependency of the governance model / structure in correlation of point 1+2 with any financial mechanism/scenario.

Assumptions The proposed financing scenarios and financial Models are based on a number of assumptions regarding the way the ATM Master Plan implementation will be managed:

• There will be an agreed ATM Master Plan that defines an Implementation Programme aimed at achieving the maximum benefits for all Stakeholders in the shortest possible time.

• Until all aircraft using European airspace are equipped with “fully SESAR compatible” equipment, the ANSPs may have to operate and finance some older generation ATM/CNS systems or subsystems.

• ANSPs grouping for joint procurement may further evolve.

• Airport Operators and other third party investors may be stakeholders in providing future ATM equipment even where they are not providing services.

• The future investment volume needed for the implementation of the ATM Master Plan in 2020 is not known right now. It is assumed to be close to the current figure of €1Bn/year for the ANSPs. The estimation of investment volume for SESAR implementation is elaborated in chapter 5.

• A significant part of the capital investment will consist of ATM equipment that needs to be retrofitted to existing aircraft.

• For the benefit of this section, the notion of a Financing Structure is introduced which aims at organising the financing aspects of managing the assets.

Overview of Financing Scenarios In general there are two alternatives, which are mutually exclusive.

The (classical) institutional way: • The current national structures and influences remain (think global, act local).

• Any development of the governance structure in charge of the ATM Master Plan implementation would include the function of coordination of funds but it would not become an asset-holder.

• If there is an agreement to provide a pre-financing schedule, a revenue stream can be guaranteed. If guarantees (National Governments, EC, Institutional) for borrowing or commercial paper19 are provided, then strong commercial loans at attractive rates can be arranged or even Commercial Paper floated. In this case this can be handled as a non-profit activity.

The product/service way: • Technical developments create an asset value. Access to this asset will be leased/rented/licensed/sold or provided through a concession (similar to the Galileo model) to ANSPs/Airport Operators/Airspace Users and the Supply Industry by an ATM Master Plan Financing Structure.

• The Financing Structure will be aiming to make profit and Airspace Users would accept this due to the expected increase in operational and commercial efficiency.

• Airspace Users, ANSPs, Supply Industry (IND), Airport Operators and Capital Market players could all become Shareholders of the Financing Structure. Participation could be widened through joint ventures or Venture Capital funds.

18 - Together with the existing principle, in certain States, to fund the GA and military contributions directly by States 19 - ANSPs can float commercial paper (bonds, loan stock) to raise funds from the commercial market. This is easier when the Government is partially or fully involved in the ownership structure for guarantee purposes.

For example both German DFS and UK NATS have used this method in the past.

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The following chart (Figure 2-9) shows the full set of scenarios depending on: • The rights and powers of the Financing Structure (x-axis).

• The business model used towards the ANSPs, Users and Airport Operators (y-axis).

Not all of the theoretically 11 possibilities have been examined.

The analysis focused on six scenarios 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 3a/3b. The sizes of the bullets represent the investment volume allocated to the Financing Structure as a subset of the total amount of investments at the various stakeholder levels.

Scenario 0: Works with State guarantees for the pre-financing scheme offered to ANSPs and Airport Operators. ATM System assets remain the property of ANSPs, Airport Operators, and Airspace Users. IPRs are controlled solely by their owners with a possible central coordination function.

Scenario 0.5: Has some elements of the product/service way provided portion of exploitation rights can be utilised within ANSP’s and Airport Operators / Financing Structure. ATM System assets remain the property of ANSPs, Airport Operators and Airspace Users. The usage and exploitation rights of some IPRs are delega-

Scenario

0

ANSPs, Airports and Users lease certified products

n/a

ANSPs and Airports lease certified products

n/a

ANSPs, Airports and Users buy certified products

n/a

ANSPs, Airports and Users use certified products

The Financing Structure n/a : not applicable

0.5

ted to the Financing Structure with a central coordination function, which acts as a concessionaire.

Scenario 1: ATM System assets remain the property of ANSPs, Airport Operators and Airspace Users. The Financing Structure has the ATM IPR usage and exploitation rights. It acts as a concessionaire.

Scenario 2: The Financing Structure has the ATM IPR usage and exploitation rights. It buys certified SESAR compliant systems from the supply industry and sells it to ANSPs, Airport Operators and Airspace Users with a regulated added margin. ATM System assets belong temporarily to the Financing Structure.

Scenario 3a: Financing Structure has the ATM IPR usage and exploitation rights. It buys certified SESAR compliant systems from the supply industry and leases them to ANSPs and Airport Operators (with direct sales to Airspace Users). ATM System assets belong to the Financing Structure.

Scenario 3b: As 3a but includes the leasing of on-board avionics to Airspace Users.

1

2

n/a

n/a

3 - 22 Bn+

n/a

S 3b (3a + user's avionics) - 11 Bn

n/a

n/a

n/a S 3a (ground ATM)

S 0 incentive schemes only

n/a

S 0.5 some rights stay with ANSPs

has state guarantees Institutional way

n/a S 1 pre-financing is offered, incentive schemes are in place

S 2 pre-financing is offered, incentive schemes are in place

n/a

n/a

n/a

owns usage & exploitation rights

buys components

owns components

Product/service way

Figure 2-9 Financing scenarios

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

The issue of IPRs/ Usage & Exploitation Rights Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and their usage and exploitation are one of the main issues in the financing of the ATM Master Plan implementation.

In general the question who owns the IPRs is of lower importance than the question who “controls/coordinates” the usage and exploitation rights. From a financing perspective a product/capital market driven financing model will request a higher extent of controlling rights in order to give access to possible future profit streams.

The scenario 0 indicates the possibility of IPRs and their usage / exploitation for the ATM Master Plan implementation just to be “coordinated”. This coordination could possibly be done through a patent pool or a patent forum. Both structures aim at reducing transaction costs and maximum cumulative royalty rates.

The scenarios 0.5 up to 3 indicate the need to have the exploitation rights under control in order to access capital market financing. The objective of the IPR management by the Financing Structure would be to maximise royalty income. For this idea to work the revenue streams based on royalties must exceed the costs for centralised IPR management and ownership and the possibility exists that the financial burden for the ATM Master Plan Implementation is partly shifted from taxpayers to ANSPs, airlines and ultimately air passengers.

Revenues assured & profit possible

The definition of an IPR Strategy is seen as the pre-requisite for the choice of a financing scenario for the ATM Master Plan implementation. The ATM Master Plan implementation will depend on the financing model chosen, the number of involved patents and market players and the willingness of owners of essential IPR to accept the certain conditions laid down by the SESAR Joint Undertaking Regulation. It is to be noted that the supply industry does not want a central entity handling exclusive IPRs. Decisions and recommendations for the financing of the SESAR Deployment Phase The following decision tree (Figure 2-10) shows the decisions to be taken before a financing scheme for the SESAR Deployment Phase can be finalized: The advantage of scenarios 2 and 3 is that it offers possibilities in speeding up the investment processes as it facilitates cash flow, amortisation and depreciation cycles constraints (if any) of individual stakeholders. However, an analysis of the realistic capability in the ATM industry to accept above scenarios lead to a vision where only Scenario 0.5 (modified Scenario 1) or Scenario 1 ‘Central Ownership/Certification of portion of usage and exploitation rights’ are possible to implement. Both show a significant change to the current situation and do not require central procurement as it is not proven that central procurement is more cost effective and could give rise to competition issues. In addition, main ATM industry participants, and in particular ATM supply industry, are reluctant to consider a central procurement scenario.

Product/service way

Y

New legal entity with equity capital

N partly* Institutional way

N

Owns usage & exploitation rights

STOP

• NO commercial basis for new entity • All funding via user charges

Y

• NO pre-financing • All funding via user charges

N STOP

State guarantees

Central purchasing of SESAR equipment

Y

N

Scenario 0

Scenario 0.5

Y

Scenario 1

Central leasing of SESAR equipment

Y

Scenario 3

N Scenario 2

* Usage/exploitation rights for some developments would remain with ANSPs

Figure 2-10 Financing scenarios decision tree

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2.4.4.4 Standardisation Process Aspects Following on the D1 findings on the current technical and operational standardisation process (complex, fragmented and unclear), an improved ATM European Standardisation process is needed, which should be built as far as appropriate on a global Standardisation process in full support of worldwide interoperability objectives. D2 has identified a few essential functions, to be performed by the same or different organisations – with every organisation responsible for a function being both empowered to make decisions appropriate to that function, and accountable to the aviation community.

The essential functions are:

The above functions shall be coordinated through a single process, including: • Liaison with ICAO and other international organisations for global harmonisation, including civil/military interoperability.

• Maintenance of the standardisation elements throughout the life of the ATM Master Plan and beyond • Consolidation of ATM stakeholder views • Necessary liaison with regulators responsible for the reference to standards as means of compliance to their regulation. The Standardisation and Certification processes are however to be carried out by different bodies.

• To follow the ATM Master Plan development in order to properly plan for timely delivery of the required standards. The output of this function shall be a list of proposed standards, including analysis of the needs and selection of the different standard initiatives that shall be further developed.

• To develop required standards (to be established on a performance based basis when ever possible), activity to be allocated to appropriate organisations, each responsible for a given standard, including the preparation of mature drafts and their consultation process securing the participation of all relevant stakeholders; work shall be done in cooperation with ICAO and other international organisations developing Standards.

• To validate standards through coordination activities of e.g. trials, experiments, testing, to assess the suitability of, and refine as necessary, the standard being developed. Validation activities shall be somehow independent of the development of the standard to avoid possible bias.

• To launch approval process with publication and appropriate consultation across the aviation community on the suitability of the standards.

• To have the approved publication being accepted as an acceptable standard by appropriate regulation, or kept other wise as a specification.

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3 Performance Framework and Targets 3.1 Introduction Work in D1 has clearly identified a need for a single, simplified European ATM System coupled with a performance-based approach that will satisfy all stakeholders’ requirements. Both States and Industry together have a primary role to play in ensuring that Europe’s ATM System is progressively modernised to cope with expected traffic growth, in a safe and environment friendly operation. It is patently evident that “Business as usual” is not an option.

A comprehensive ATM performance framework must be developed and applied throughout Europe as a whole as the basis for future management decisions in ATM. This chapter provides a bridge between: • The Air Transport Value Chain and the vision on the future role of ATM in that value chain on one hand (how to translate the general expectations into more precise performance terms).

• The definition of the future ATM concept of operations to be further developed in SESAR D3, including airspace design aspects (providing a set of initial strategic performance criteria against which to assess the future concept).

It contains a set of initial strategic performance targets for the future European ATM System, plus a performance framework and proposed performance objectives and indicators intended to guide further work during the SESAR project. However, it is important to recognize that at this stage, the targets represent the Airspace Users aspirations for the ATM System.

The time horizon for the objectives and design targets is 2020+ but performance checkpoints for earlier (intermediate) dates are proposed, as they are needed for the development of the ATM Master Plan.

While it is necessary for SESAR to work in the context of the Air Transport System as a whole, the scope is clearly focused on providing an initial strategic performance specification for the ATM part of the Air Transport System.

The visions in preceding chapters covering ATM business management and institutional and regulatory aspects are now drawn together into initial strategic performance targets for the individual Key Performance Areas. These will serve as overall guidance to Concept Design and Validation and the definition of more specific Performance Objectives for the ATM Service.

Overall, the ATM Value proposition recognises that throughput and Cost Effectiveness is a major value driver.

The future European ATM System will contribute to the future Air Transport Value by: • Continuing to supply safety and traffic management services.

• Expanding ATM Capacity to handle the projected growth in traffic by 2020 and beyond.

• Supporting the robustness of air transport services and schedules through no delays being attributable to the ATM process.

• Developing flexible ATS airspace Capacity to maximise the Efficiency and minimise the Environmental impact of flight profiles.

• Finding the best trade-offs between the different Performance Areas.

• Reducing the direct unit cost of the ATM System by 50% by 2020.

A performance-based ATM System relies on an ATM Performance Partnership built on a shared view of the Value priorities of the respective players (i.e. Airspace Users, Airport Operators and ATM Service Providers), Network interactions, and agreed “rules of the game”. This shared view of ATM is fundamental to further develop the target into a coherent Performance Framework to properly guide the development of future Concepts solutions.

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3.2 Application of a Performance-Based Approach Considering that aviation activity continues its rapid expansion in most regions of the world, ICAO has come to the conclusion that traditional oversight functions based on intensive interaction and intervention as well as compliance with technical standards and regulations will strain resources and become impracticable. ICAO is therefore promoting implementation of integrated safety programmes among States and safety management systems at the organizational level. A similar approach should be followed in other performance areas such as security, environment, cost effectiveness, capacity etc. This involves a performance-based approach to all performance-related work that focuses on "what" an ATM stakeholder must do rather than "how" it will be accomplished. It will allow regulatory authorities, planners, airspace users, Airport Operators and service providers to effectively meet their responsibilities, using performance-based approaches having already been proven effective in other industries.

The shift from monitoring compliance with technical standards to a performance-based approach will also support integration of the air navigation system. It will allow regulatory authorities, political bodies, ANSPs and airspace users to be involved in establishing performance measures acceptable to them. The means of measuring and monitoring air navigation performance - and in particular ATM performance - are critical to the future success of the evergrowing air navigation system.

ICAO is working on guidance material for adopting a globally harmonised, performance-based approach to the implementation of the Global ATM Operational Concept (OCD – Doc 9854). Some of this material is already available, and SESAR is committed to applying this guidance in the European context.

In this section, background information on ICAO progress is provided to give the context for the work developed in SESAR. Some relevant on going European performance initiatives are discussed before the SESAR Performance Framework is introduced.

3.2.1 Background on ICAO Approach The ICAO ATM Requirements and Performance Panel (ATMRPP) is currently engaged in developing material to foster a common performance oriented approach to the implementation of the OCD. Some guidance material has already been completed (the ‘Performance Based Transition Guidelines’ or PBTG document); other material is at the moment still in draft (the ‘Global ATM Performance Manual’) but envisaged to be completed in 2007.

The PBTG while providing the high-level guidance for adopting a globally harmonised, performance-based approach to the implementation of the OCD, is dealing with a process and techniques for strategic (time horizon until twenty years ahead) performance management and transition roadmap development, in the context of regional ATM planning such as performed during the SESAR Definition Phase.

Transition planning is a cyclic process executed at global, regional and local level. It is typically repeated at five year intervals to take into account changing forecasts, up-to-date information on implementation progress, new performance assessments, changed performance expectations and policies (resulting in revised performance targets), and any other relevant change (exceptional changes may lead the ATM community to decide to start a new transition planning cycle before the regular five-year interval has elapsed).

Each iteration results in updated versions of transition roadmaps, research plans and implementation plans (the latter two may be updated on an annual basis). Considering that transition roadmaps typically cover a time horizon of twenty years, a given five year period will be updated several times in the transition roadmap before it is incorporated into implementation plans and finally materializes as a set of real changes to the ATM System.

The sequence of steps outlined in the next section takes the results (transition roadmap, plans, and performance assessments) of the previous iteration into account, and applies all the latest changes to see whether the transition roadmaps and plans are still valid from a performance perspective. If this is not the case, transition roadmaps and plans are modified to mitigate all identified performance issues (performance gaps) and ensure alignment at global, regional and local level, and the process is ready to start again five years later.

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Overview of the Performance-Based Transition Approach Figure 3-1 provides an overview of the performance-based transition approach. It contains three steps with questions, which must be answered as part of applying the approach:

1

2

What are the ATM community expectations ?

What are the performance objectives ?

• Step 1 (questions 1 - 5): translate ATM community expectations into quantified performance targets.

• Step 2 (questions 6 - 8): conduct performance assessment and use performance targets to identify current and anticipated performance gaps.

• Step 3 (questions 9 - 12): update transition roadmaps and plans to mitigate identified performance gaps.

3

5

What are the performance targets ?

How to measure performance ?

Step 1

4

What is the current and expected traffic evolution ?

6

7

What are the current roadmaps and plans ?

9

What is the current and planned ATM performance ?

10

What is the global ATM Operational Concept and associated system requirements?

What are the available options for operational improvement ?

11

What selection and sequence of operational improvements addresses current and anticipated performance gaps ?

8

What are the current and anticipated performance gaps and their reasons ?

Step 2

12

What are the resulting updates to current roadmaps and plans ?

Step 3

F i g u r e 3 - 1 P e r f o r m a n c e - b a s e d Tr a n s i t i o n A p p r o a c h

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3.2.2 European Context 3.2.2.1 Existing Performance Planning and Review activities The focus on performance, objectives and indicative targets within this chapter is to provide guidance in support of ATM Master Plan.

As such, SESAR is in no way attempting to duplicate or replace the work that is currently ongoing in well-established performance review processes (PRC/PRU work) or the short- and medium-term performance planning processes (e.g. the ECIP/LCIP capacity enhancement planning process).

in this area is to start this process by giving general guidance in the form of a performance framework, and an initial list of proposed objectives, indicators, and possibly targets.

The SESAR performance framework (see figure 3-2) defines the overall “playing field” in which to define performance measurements, monitor performance evolution, set objectives to guide performance improvement initiatives, and targets that represent required or desired performance levels. It is actually an enhanced version of the ICAO Performance Framework described in the PBTG. The enhancement is based upon a two dimensional approach:

3.2.2.2 SES Performance Review Mandate The European Commission issued a mandate to EUROCONTROL in order to assist the European Commission in the development of implementing rules on the examination and evaluation of air navigation performance.

The purpose of the mandate is to develop draft-implementing rules in order to: • “Define a set of information that will be collected on a regular basis.

• Develop measures for the dissemination of this information to interested parties.”

There is a clear relationship between this work and SESAR, but no overlap. The mandate is primarily concerned with ensuring and enhancing a steady flow of performance data from Stakeholders to the body responsible for the review of today’s ATM performance, whereas the role of SESAR is to outline strategic design targets and a performance framework in support of the ATM Master Plan.

• A “vertical” dimension addressing the maturity of performance processes: how (well) is performance regulated, planned, delivered, measured, reviewed and improved in each of the performance areas.

• A “horizontal” dimension based upon the PBTG (dealing with performance scope covering the 11 KPAs- safety, environment, security, cost effectiveness, capacity, flexibility, predictability, efficiency, access and equity, interoperability and participation).

The vertical dimension of the Performance Framework is based on an overall performance management process, in which different sub-processes called Performance Management Stages (PMS) can be distinguished (See Table 3-1). All stages need to exist and work sufficiently well, in order for the overall system to meet performance expectations and achieve continuous improvement. The PMS framework can be used for the analysis of the “performance objective portfolio” within individual KPAs (e.g. in which stage(s) of the performance management process are the deficiencies? where do we need to define objectives in order to improve things?).

Horizontal Dimension (KPA)

Policy & Objectives Indicators & Targets Rules & Processes Planning Execution Detection Mitigation Outcome Impact Recovery Evaluation Improvement

• System development level: the aim is to develop the future ATM System in a performance driven manner. To make this possible, this chapter delivers a number of high level (strategic) objectives and targets to other tasks, to be used during the remainder of the SESAR Definition Phase as overall design constraints driving concept, architecture and master planning work.

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Safety Security Environment Cost Effectiveness Capacity Efficiency Flexibility Predictability Access & Equity Participation Interoperability

One of the roles of SESAR is to strengthen, and where necessary introduce a performance driven approach in the future European ATM System. This will need to happen both at the system development level, as well as at the system operations level:

Vertical Dimension (PMS)

3.2.3 SESAR Performance Framework

Focus Areas with : Objectives, indicators, targets

F i g u r e 3 - 2 S E S A R Tw o - D i m e n s i o n a l Performance Framework

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Post-Operation

System Operation

System Characteristics

Table 3-1: Performance Management Process PMS Performance Management Process Vision for 2020+ 1

Policy & Objectives

A well-defined, mature, politically accepted policy for each KPA exists, and it is adequately translated into (strategic) performance objectives.

2

Indicators & Targets

Well-defined, mature, politically accepted indicators and targets have been agreed. These make performance measurable, and result in clear and suitable criteria to determine when and where the (strategic) performance objectives have been achieved.

3

Rules & Processes

A vertically and horizontally coordinated performance management process is implemented throughout Europe. It is supported by an appropriate set of rules, regulations, laws, processes, procedures and practices. This includes a pan-European performance data reporting process in which all relevant Stakeholders participate.

The performance management process guides the making of impact assessments and trade-off decisions, the planning of desired performance, and provides a general framework that prevents or at least minimises deviation from top level policy and the performance targets.

4

Planning

All strategic, pre-tactical and tactical operational plans are developed and optimised in function of needs (the targets to be achieved), while respecting the needs of other KPAs.

5

Execution

Execution of all strategic, pre-tactical and tactical operational plans is done in such a way that the actual performance is closely following the plan.

6

Detection

During execution of all strategic, pre-tactical and tactical operational plans, mechanisms are used to predict and detect deviation from planned performance as early as possible. Information regarding such developing deviations is immediately made available for mitigation purposes.

7

Mitigation

The performance management process is highly successful in mitigating the effects of developing deviations from planned performance.

8

Outcome

The performance management process is able to measure the actually achieved performance at the required level of granularity, with a high degree of accuracy and completeness. Sufficient supporting data is available to develop a thorough understanding of causes and effects.

9

Impact

The performance management process is able to measure and assess the impact of performance on the value chain of the Air Transport System, and on a wider scale determine its impact on society, environment and the economy at large.

10

Recovery

When unexpected events disrupt the operation of the Air Transport System, with an impact on performance, the performance management process is able to re-establish norm0al performance levels with a minimum of delay.

11

Evaluation

ATM Performance Review addresses performance in an adequate manner, and is able to develop ‘lessons learned’.

12

Improvement

The performance management process is able respond to the ‘lessons learned’ which are the result of ATM Performance Review, and use these to achieve continuous improvement.

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The horizontal dimension of the performance framework is based on 8 layers, as illustrated in figure 3-3. The approach is based on ICAO material [the PBTG] that was further enhanced and refined.

• Step 2 – Integration of the performance problem: once the scope of performance had been divided into specific, precisely scoped, manageable chunks, an understanding of their inter

Horizontal dimension of the Performance Framework 1

2

3

4

Expectations

• Global expectations (ICAO OCD) • Region-specific interpretation (Vision, Value Chain)

KPA Groups What (very general)

What (less general)

High level statements Top level categorisation framework

• 3 KPA Groups • Used to place individual KPAs in a broader perspective (role/scope/impact)

KPAs

ICAO global categorisation framework

• 11 standard KPAs

What performance policy will focus on

Focus Areas

Definition of 5 Performance Policy

Generic Objectives

Application 6 of Performance policy

What (specific definition of what will be improved)

Performance Targets

Instantiated Objectives

Quantification of current/expected 7 performance (data aggregation + indicator value calculation) Data 8 collection and forecasting

Performance Indicators

Indicator Values

Supporting Metrics

Gap prediction and analysis

Data

Definitions and qualitative statements Numbers with a context (time, location, etc.)

Time, location and stakeholder specific

Figure 3-3 Horizontal dimension of the performance framework 3.2.3.1 Target Driven Development Overall initial design targets have been developed in SESAR D2 (including for example a cost effectiveness target which translates into an overall cost envelope), and it is the responsibility of subsequent SESAR project milestones to cascade these down to targets that will be defined in their own area, in such a way that the overall target is met. This way, every Task of each milestone is forced to apply a “local/internal” performance driven approach, while coordinating and negotiating this with other competing/contributing Tasks.

3.2.3.2 Adoption of an Analytical Approach Performance can be made manageable and understandable by approaching it in an analytical way:

dependencies (cause-effect relationships, impacts and benefit mechanisms) needs to be developed.

• Step 3 – Validation: as part of validating the concept, architecture etc., it has to be verified that the interdependencies really have the effect that was predicted or assumed during the previous step. This includes assessing the degree of uncertainty in the relationships.

• Step 4 – Impact Assessment: the 4th step consists of assessing the impact of the validated focus areas, including interdependencies on the initial pre-trade-off targets. In some cases this may reveal that the initial targets are incompatible and that priorities need to be redefined and/or a trade-off choice needs to be made.

While the focus has been mainly on Step 1 during the development of D2, some initial analysis has been made of Step 2.

• Step 1 – Division of the performance problem: by focussing on a KPA at a time, and within each area focussing on well defined understandable subjects called Focus Areas. This has been the focus during the SESAR Definition Phase thus far. As such, the targets defined here represent initial (pre-trade-off) targets of indicative nature.

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3.2.3.3 Overview of Key Performance Areas It has been found useful to cluster KPAs into the three major groups “Societal Outcome”, “Operational Performance” and “Performance Enablers”.

The decision criteria for grouping are based on the “highest” degree of visibility of the KPA outcome and impact, rather than on how the performance is achieved.

Basically, the three levels of visibility are: • Societal Outcome – High Visibility: effects are of a political nature and are even visible to those who are not users of the Air Transport System.

• Operational Performance – Medium Visibility: visibility of the effects stops generally at the level of ANSPs, Airport Operators, airspace users and airspace user customers (e.g. passengers).

Adding to the net positive ‘value’ is: • The benefits resulting from the Air Transport Value Chain.

• Economic value.

• Social value.

Reduction of the net positive ‘value’ occurs to the extent that aviation does not meet expected levels of: • Safety.

• Security.

• Environmental management and control.

The various segments of aviation will only be acceptable and promotable in the eyes of the general public, if there is a general perception that – for each of them – the positive aspects outweigh the negative ones.

Please note that only part of Aviation Safety, Security and Environmental Sustainability is within the scope of ATM (hence

High Visibility

Medium Visibility

Low Visibility

Effects are societal and of a political nature

Effects are business-level, on users and operators

Not a direct interest to airspace user customers

Societal Outcome

Operational Performance

Performance Enablers

Safety + Security + Environmental Sustainability

Cost Effectiveness + Capacity + Efficiency + Flexibility + Predictability

Access and Equity + Participation + Interoperability

F i g u r e 3 - 4 G r o u p i n g o f K PA s • Performance Enablers – Low Visibility: these are not of direct interest to airspace user customers and the KPAs play their role mostly at the business trajectory planning stage.

Figure 3-4 illustrates the grouping of KPAs into three KPA Groups: Societal Outcome, Operational Performance and Performance Enablers.

ATM shall contribute, but is not fully responsible for performance in these areas).

Performance in these areas is driven by operational performance (upstream in the cause-effect chain), but the effects (outcome and impact) are at societal level, and this determines in which KPA Group the KPAs are placed.

Societal Outcome KPAs The desired societal outcome of the activities carried out by the airspace users and the rest of the air transport industry is: • Creation of net positive ‘value’ for the societies served

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Operational Performance KPAs

Examples of these interdependencies are:

The KPA Group “Operational Performance” comprises the areas that directly describe the operational performance and associated costs of airspace users, Airport Operators and ANSPs.

a) Financial Cost-effectiveness versus Efficiency, Flexibility and Predictability (also called quality of service): the need to reduce the cost of providing ATM capacity may have to be balanced against the need to limit the cost of delay due to capacity shortages.

These are areas that are concerned with the internal details of how the ATM Community Members run their activities.

The main areas in this group are: • Cost Effectiveness (the financial outcome of operational performance).

• Capacity (the basic enabler for other operational performance aspects).

• The Quality of Service dimensions within the “Operational Performance” group are covered by the following areas: H (Flight) Efficiency.

H Flexibility.

H Predictability.

b) Efficiency versus Environment: lateral efficiency affects fuel efficiency, which in turn affects indirect costs as well as gaseous emissions. c) Capacity versus Efficiency: the objective of providing flight trajectories closer to user Business Trajectories may have to be balanced against the objective of increasing capacity. d) Short-term Cost-effectiveness versus investment: reducing the cost of providing ATM services can have an impact on capital investment to deliver long-term performance. e) Access versus Capacity: the access of all aircraft, irrespective of their equipage or size, to a certain airspace or airport can have an impact on the capacity provided.

Performance Enabler KPAs The KPA Group “Performance Enablers” comprises the performance of enabling activities and processes rather than that of operational outcomes.

This group comprises the following areas: • Access and Equity.

• Participation by the ATM Community.

• Interoperability.

The magnitude of the trade-offs differs at regional and local levels.

For example, the size of the trade-off between cost of increasing capacity and the cost of delay will differ between a region where capacity can be increased with existing resources and a region where increases in capacity will require considerable investment.

"Enabling" implies: While things go well Enablers tend to go unnoticed. However, if performance in these areas is unsatisfactory, performance in other KPA Groups will suffer. Unsatisfactory performance here may even act as a major inhibitor.

Trade-offs between performance areas in the short and medium terms can also be removed or attenuated with technological and operational improvements (through target concept development) in the long run.

The KPAs in this group tend towards not having a mature performance measurement culture.

After the initial target setting in D2, the target setting process must take account of these interdependencies and trade-off aspects.

The interdependencies between KPAs, leading to trade-offs, need to be analysed and discussed within the ATM community. Where the simultaneous meeting of different targets is not possible, the balance between targets must be adjusted so that they reflect an acceptable and feasible compromise. The aim is to ensure that the total set of agreed targets reflects society’s priorities in the highlevel expectations.

3.2.3.4 KPA Interdependencies Interdependencies between performance objectives within a KPA, as well as between KPAs, need to be identified as they address the issue of trade-offs between the various performance objectives and targets. Preferably the target concept is to overcome the need for (some of the) trade-offs; alternatively if trade-offs are unavoidable, it points toward the need to take decisions on priorities between the KPA and Targets.

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f) Flexibility versus Capacity: airspace users’ ability to modify flight trajectories or arrival and departure times may come at the expense of the capacity of the ATM System.

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3.3 A Vision for Improved Performance Levels A vision description typically consists of two different types of statements: • A solution oriented vision (e.g. high level statements about what the concept should look like).

• A set of general performance expectations or political performance vision (e.g. statements about improved safety, capacity etc.).

In November 2005, during the public announcement of the SESAR Definition Phase contract, EC Vice-President Jacques Barrot expressed the EC objectives of the SESAR programme, which are to achieve a future European Air Traffic Management (ATM) System for 2020 and beyond which can, relative to today's performance:

• Enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air, • Improve the safety performance by a factor of 10, • Enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the environment and • Provide ATM services at a cost to the airspace users which is at least 50% less.

These statements constitute the political vision and goals for the design of the future ATM System. These vision and goals have been analysed by reference to the 2020 demand and has resulted into specific initial indicative targets for that particular year, notwithstanding the subsequent evolutions necessary to meet the evolution of the demand.

In this chapter, the vision and goals haves been broadened by considering the whole set of eleven KPAs defined in ICAO OCD.

3.4 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Performance Objectives and Targets This section provides more information on each individual KPA [Ref. 15 for more details].

The structure is as follows: • Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas.

• Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target(s); notwithstanding that targets, which have been set at this stage, must be considered as strategic ones (working assumptions). Therefore, these are initial indicative targets for the global European ATM, for which trade-off analysis will be done in D3 and D4. Targets are annual European averages20, therefore include the cumulative effect of all operating conditions (e.g. weather) over a whole year.

Likewise, because they address total European performance (not local or individual performance), the network effect is included. The allocation of responsibility for achieving the targets involves all stakeholders.

• Clarifying Notes – if required, brief notes to clarify the Initial Indicative Target, e.g. further discussion on Trade-offs, accountabilities, and implications for future European ATM Concept where applicable.

Please note that in this section the focus is on the definition of Initial Indicative Targets for the outcome, and that targets and objectives for the performance management process will have to be defined by the D3 Tasks.

20 - The word “average” is used in the sense of the mathematical “mean value”; it corresponds typically to the sum of performance over a certain time period, geographical area and number of flights, divided by the total number of flights

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3.4.1 Cost Effectiveness 3.4.1.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Cost Effectiveness

This KPA addresses the cost of gate-to-gate ATM in relation to the volume of air traffic that is managed.

Focus Areas Direct cost of gate-to-gate ATM

This Focus Area covers the total direct gate-to-gate ATM costs incurred by ATM stakeholders (regulatory and governmental authorities, intergovernmental organisations, service providers, airspace users, Airport Operators etc.).

It includes: Geographically: en-route and terminal costs Service-wise: ATM/CNS costs, MET costs, payments made to regulatory and governmental authorities, European ATM design function costs (e.g. EUROCONTROL today) From an organisational perspective: staff costs, infrastructure, equipment (ground, air and space based), software, maintenance, training etc.

Please note that this Focus Area addresses costs, not revenue and it is therefore not affected by charging policy.

Direct cost of ATM providers

The part of the direct cost of gate-to-gate ATM which is borne by the service providers.

Indirect costs

Indirect costs are attributable to non-optimal gate-to-gate ATM performance.

The scope covers the extra costs incurred by airspace users through non-optimum performance in the Efficiency, Flexibility and Predictability KPAs. The monetised environmental cost is not included at this stage.

3.4.1.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

In line with the political vision and goal, the working assumption for Cost Effectiveness design target is to halve the total direct European gate-to-gate ATM costs from ?800/flight (see note below) in 2004 to ?400/flight in 2020 (in 2005 euros) through progressive reduction. This could be achieved via a cumulated ~3%/year reduction until 2010 (as indicated in PRR 8 Report 2004), followed by a cumulated ~5%/year reduction until 2020. Notwithstanding this 2020 target, continuing cost improvement should be sought after 2020.

Note:

• This gate-to-gate ATM cost figure does not include airspace user costs in the baseline (2004), but it does cover future airspace user investments to the extent of any increased role and/or associated cost in ATM. • The PRC has estimated [PRR2005] that in 2004, total en-route and terminal ANS costs in Europe amounted to approximately €7,000M. This cost comprises ATM/CNS cost, MET cost, payment to regulatory and governmental authorities and EUROCONTROL costs. This cost was to be amortised over 8.745 million flights (2004 official traffic statistics STATFOR), which results in an average cost per flight of €800.

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3.4.2 Capacity 3.4.2.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Capacity

This KPA addresses the ability of the ATM system to cope with air traffic demand (in number and distribution through time and space). It relates to the throughput of that volume per unit of time, for a given safety level.

Focus Areas Airspace capacity

This Focus Area covers the capacity of any individual or aggregated airspace volume within the European airspace.

Airport capacity

Focus is on the throughput of individual airports in terms of aircraft movements, taking into account the composite effect of air- and landside constraints. So this Focus Area covers much more than just runway capacity. Focus is also on the throughput of individual congested airports in low visibility (i.e. IMC) conditions.

Network capacity

Is concerned with overall network throughput, taking into account the network effect of the airspace and airport capacity in function of traffic demand patterns.

3.4.2.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Targets

In accordance with the political vision and goal, the ATM target concept should enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air (en-route and airport network), so as to be able to handle traffic growth well beyond 2020. The deployment of the ATM target concept should be progressive, so that only the required capacity is deployed at any time.

The initial indicative design target for Capacity deployment is that the ATM System can accommodate by 2020 a 73% increase in traffic (annual IFR traffic growth in the European network from 2005 baseline) while meeting the targets for quality of service KPAs (Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability): 5% in the period 2005-2010, 3.5-4% during 2010-2015, 2-3% during 2015-2020, and 2% p.a. beyond 2020. This corresponds to an optimistic demand forecast combined with an optimistic airport capacity growth scenario, which however assumes that there will be very few Greenfield airport development projects in Europe in the next 20 years. This deployment requirement means that the annual number of flights to be handled by the ATM System will increase from 9.1 to approximately 16 Mn21 flights p.a. within the 2005-2020 period. During the busiest months of the year, the system should be able to handle 50,000 flights/day around the year 2022.

These are the average European design targets (at network level). When transposing this to local targets, regional differences will exist. The ATM target concept should be able to support a tripling or more of traffic where required.

ATM operational improvements should allow airports without special physical constraints (including environmental considerations) in the airside-landside value chain to reach the following low visibility (i.e. IMC) throughput during a 15-hour day (from 0700 till 2200 hrs local time): 750 movements/day with a single runway, 1150 movements/day for airports with crossing runways, and 1350 movements/day for airports with parallel runways. For complex airports (with 3 or more runways), no generic targets are defined.

These airports should be looked at individually. Congested airports will need a capability for sustained operations at maximum capacity during most hours of the day. Avoiding disruptions is top priority for those airports.

Note: A distinction has to be made between the capacity that is expected to be needed for deployment in 2020, and the capacity potential that needs to be built into the 2020 concept. The deployment capacity targets are based on the traffic forecast [LTF2004]. It is wise to assume the most challenging forecasting scenario for target setting. This is Scenario A: “Globalisation and Rapid Economic Growth”, i.e. 73% higher traffic levels in 2020 than in 2005. For the concept capacity targets one must take into account the need that the concept should have a useable lifetime of 15 to 20 years beyond the year 2020 — period during which there is likely to be more traffic growth — and that there is also a possibility that in future years the forecast for 2020 may need to be revised upwards. One possible scenario for example could be that the growth of VLJ traffic may exceed all present expectations. The vision statement “Capacity times 3” has been interpreted as being an indication of the expected concept capacity target and not the deployment capacity target for 2020.

Whereas deployment capacity targets are based on forecasting methods (underpinned by numerical modelling), choosing concept capacity targets is much more a matter of adding a sufficient margin to the 2020 deployment target.

21 - The annual European traffic demand - if unconstrained - is forecast to reach at least 18 Million IFR flights by 2020.

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3.4.3 Efficiency 3.4.3.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Efficiency

This KPA addresses the actually flown 4D trajectories of aircraft in relationship to their Shared22 Business Trajectory.

Focus Areas Temporal efficiency

This Focus Area covers the magnitude and causes of deviations from planned (on-time) departure time and deviations from Shared Business Trajectory durations (taxi time, airborne time).

Fuel efficiency

This Focus Area covers the magnitude and causes of deviations from optimum fuel consumption.

Mission Effectiveness

Following military trajectory models focus is to reflect the economic impact of transit times associated with military training activities.

3.4.3.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

The initial indicative Efficiency design target23 is an improvement in ATM efficiency such that: • On-time departure performance (on-time departure is defined as actual off-block departure less than 3 minutes before or after the departure time of the Shared Business Trajectory; delayed departure is defined as actual departure more than 3 minutes after the departure time of the Shared Business Trajectory): H Occurrence (Punctuality): at least 98% of flights departing on time.

H Severity (Delays): the average departure delay of delayed flights will not exceed 10 minutes.

• Flight duration efficiency (normal flight duration is defined as actual block-to-block time less than 3 minutes longer than the block-to-block time of the Shared Business Trajectory; extended flight duration is defined as actual block-to-block time more than 3 minutes longer than the block-to-block time of the Shared Business Trajectory): H Occurrence: more than 95% of flights with normal flight duration.

H Severity: the average flight duration extension of flights will not exceed 10 minutes.

• Gate to gate fuel efficiency (Actual compared to Shared Business Trajectory): H Occurrence: less than 5% of flights suffering additional fuel consumption of more than 2.5%.

H Severity: for flights suffering additional fuel consumption of more than 2.5%, the average additional fuel consumption will not exceed 5%.

Note:

1) The efficiency performance of any flight is, at the highest level, a measure of the difference between the Shared Business Trajectory and the actual 4D-Trajectory flown by the aircraft in terms of Time and fuel deviation.

2) Because these targets are either based on new indicators or indicators which are calculated in a way different from today’s Performance Review practices, no baseline performance levels are yet available.

In Europe, historically only departure delays and lateral efficiency have been the subject of performance assessment. However, historically Airspace Users have individually assessed their own flight efficiency performance in terms of fuel burn and timeliness.

22 - Shared Business Trajectory (SBT) corresponds to the published business trajectory that is available for collaborative ATM planning purposes. The Shared Business Trajectory may or may not already contain constraints that the user has already taken into account in his business calculations. It represents the plan for optimum flight performance, assuming no other traffic is present.

23 - This indicative target has been proposed by Airspace Users to assess its feasibility during the SESAR Definition Phase. Agreement with other ATM partners (Airports and ANSPs), consolidation and trade-off will be done in D3.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

3.4.4 Flexibility 3.4.4.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Flexibility

This KPA addresses the ability of the ATM system and airports to respond to “sudden” changes in demand and capacity: rapid changes in traffic patterns, last minute notifications or cancellations of flights, changes to the Reference Business Trajectory24 (pre-departure changes as well as in-flight changes, with or without diversion), late aircraft substitutions, sudden airport capacity changes, late airspace segregation requests, weather, crisis situations, etc.

Focus Areas Business Trajectory update flexibility for scheduled and non scheduled flights

This Focus Area covers the ability of the ATM system and airports accommodate airspace user requests for Reference Business Trajectory (BT) updates of scheduled25 and non-scheduled26 flights, ranging from simple time translation (depart/arrive earlier/later) to full BT redefinition (changes to aircraft, route, vertical profile, destination, etc.)

Flexible access-on-demand for non-scheduled flights

This Focus Area covers the ability of the ATM system and airports to accommodate non-scheduled flights.

Service location flexibility

Focus is on the ability of the ATM system to make services available at (relatively) short notice in airspace and at airports where previously no service was available.

Suitability for military requirements

Focus is to reflect the suitability of the ATM System for military requirements related to the flexibility in the use of airspace and reaction to short-notice changes.

3.4.4.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

The initial indicative Flexibility design targets27 are: • Of the scheduled flights requesting a change in departure time, no more than 2% (European-wide annual average) will suffer a delay penalty of more than 3 minutes (with respect to their requested time) as a consequence of the request.

• The average delay (European-wide annual average) of such scheduled flights (with a delay penalty of more than 3 minutes) will be less than 5 minutes.

• At least 95% (European-wide annual average) of the (valid) requests for full Reference Business Trajectory (BT) redefinition of scheduled and non-scheduled flights will be accommodated, albeit possibly with a time penalty (i.e., departure and/or arrival delay).

• Of the scheduled and non-scheduled flights with a successfully accommodated request for full Reference BT redefinition, no more than 10% (European-wide annual average) will suffer a delay penalty (i.e., departure and/or arrival delay) of more than 3 minutes (with respect to their requested time) as a consequence of the request.

• The average delay of such scheduled and non-scheduled flights with a successfully accommodated request for full Reference BT redefinition (with a delay penalty of more than 3 minutes) will be less than 5 minutes.

• At least 98% (European-wide annual average) of the non-scheduled flight departures will be accommodated with a delay penalty less than 3 minutes.

• The average delay (European-wide annual average) of such non-scheduled flight departures (with a delay penalty of more than 3 minutes) will be less than 5 minutes.

• At least 98% (European-wide annual average) of the VFR-IFR change requests will be accommodated without penalties.

Note:

1) Reference Business Trajectory update includes milestones and profile. Swapping of 2 flights is a case of coupled trajectory update under Users’ control. At each flight phase a deviation could happen (Departure delay, Take-Off Time and Fuel Deviation, En-route Time and Fuel Deviation, Landing Time and Fuel Deviation, Taxi-in Time and Fuel Deviation) and necessitate a change request to translate in time the Business Trajectory. Some deviations however might necessitate a re-optimisation of the Business Trajectory based on a business decision. This could happen after a Departure delay, Take-Off Time and Fuel Deviation and En-route Time and Fuel Deviation.

2) Because these targets are based on either new indicators or indicators which are calculated in a way different from today’s Performance Review practices, no baseline performance levels are yet available.

24 - Reference Business Trajectory (RBT) corresponds to the trajectory, which the airspace user agrees to fly and the ANSP agrees to facilitate (subject to separation provision). The Reference Business Trajectory contains all the applicable constraints and will be used as a reference by all relevant ATM partners during flight execution.

25 - A flight that is part of a flight schedule. Typically the Business Trajectory is planned first, so that a schedule is created which is offered as a product to the individual users of the flight (e.g. passengers, cargo).

26 - A flight that is not part of a flight schedule. Typically the Business Trajectory is planned after the aircraft operator or individual users of the flight have identified a specific need.

27 - This indicative target has been proposed by Airspace Users to assess its feasibility during the SESAR Definition Phase. Agreement with other ATM partners (Airports and ANSPs), consolidation and trade-off will be done in D3.

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3.4.5 Predictability 3.4.5.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Predictability

This KPA addresses the ability of the ATM system to ensure a reliable and consistent level of 4D trajectory performance. In other words: across many flights, the ability to control the variability of the deviation between the actually flown 4D trajectories of aircraft in relationship to the Reference Business Trajectory.

Focus Areas On-Time operation

This Focus Area covers the variability of the flight operation: departure (off-block) and arrival (on-block) punctuality, and the variability of flight phase durations (turnaround time, taxi time, airborne time).

Service Disruption Effect

Focus is on the prevention and mitigation of the Business Trajectory effects of ATM service disruption. Such effects can take the form of departure/arrival delays, flight cancellations and diversions.

Knock-on effect

Focus is on the impact of (a lack of) On-Time operation and schedule buffers on subsequent flights. Such impact takes the form of reactionary delays, and in more extreme cases may lead to flight cancellations.

Note: Predictability underpins both the strategic and tactical assumptions in the continuous development of the Business Trajectory. Any horizontal, vertical or speed variability, or any combinations of these which lead to low predictability will have a negative impact on either or both on-time performance and fuel predictability. Low system predictability generally results in a fuel penalty. Fuel predictability is a consequence of the overall flight predictability and as such it has not been defined as a leading focus areas.

3.4.5.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

The initial indicative Predictability design target28 is an improvement in ATM predictability focused on On-time operation (on-time means within 3 minutes before or after the time reference), Service disruption effect and knock-on effects: • Arrival punctuality: less than 5% (European-wide annual average) of flights suffering arrival delay of more than 3 minutes.

• Arrival delay: the average delay (European-wide annual average) of delayed flights (with a delay penalty of more than 3 minutes) will be less than 10 minutes.

• Variability of flight duration (off-block to on-block): coefficient of variation29 is 0.015 (meaning for a 100-minute flight duration30 more than 95% flights arrives on-time, according to arrival punctuality target).

• Service Disruption31: reduce cancellation rates by 50% by 2020 compared to 2010 baseline, reduce diversion rates by 50% by 2020 compared to 2010 baseline and reduce total disruption delay by 50% (European-wide annual average) by 2020 compared to 2010 baseline.

• Knock-on effect: reduce reactionary delay32 by 50% by 2020 compared to 2010 baseline and reduce cancellation rate by 50% (European-wide annual average) by 2020 compared to 2010 baseline.

Note:

Because these targets (e.g. service disruption and knock-on effect) are based on either new indicators or indicators which are calculated in a way different from today’s Performance Review practices, no baseline performance levels are yet available.

28 - This indicative target has been proposed by Airspace Users to assess its feasibility during the SESAR Definition Phase. Agreement with other ATM partners (Airports and ANSPs), consolidation and trade-off will be done in D3.

29 - A coefficient of variation is equal to the standard deviation divided by the mean value.

30 - Average flight duration of European flights.

31 - Service disruption could be for example due to weather, a/c maintenance issues…

32 - Reactionary delays are the delays caused by primary delays (ATFM and local turnaround), i.e. delays caused by the late arrival of the aircraft or the crew from previous journeys.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

3.4.6 Safety 3.4.6.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Safety

This KPA addresses the risk, the prevention and the occurrence and mitigation of air traffic accidents.

Focus Areas ATM-related safety outcome

This Focus Area covers the occurrence and prevention of accidents involving air craft with a MTOW > 2.25 tonnes, operating under IFR, with a direct and/or indirect ATM contribution. This includes collisions on the ground and in the air, CFIT etc.

3.4.6.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

The SESAR initial indicative safety performance objective builds on the ATM2000+ Strategy objective: "To improve safety levels by ensuring that the numbers of ATM induced accidents and serious or risk bearing incidents (includes those with direct and indirect ATM contribution) do not increase and, where possible, decrease".

Considering the anticipated increase in the European annual traffic volume, the implication of the initial safety performance objective is that the overall safety level would gradually have to improve, so as to reach an improvement factor 3 in order to meet the safety objective in 2020. This is based on the assumption that safety needs to improve with the square of traffic volume increase, in order to maintain a constant accident rate.

In the longer term (design life of the concept) safety levels would need to be able to increase by a factor 10 to meet a possible threefold increase in traffic, in accordance with the political vision and goal.

Note:

The SESAR safety performance policy objective builds on the ATM2000+ Strategy objective: "To improve safety levels by ensuring that the numbers of ATM induced accidents and serious or risk bearing incidents (includes those with direct and indirect ATM contribution) do not increase and, where possible, decrease." The Strategy continues to explain, "The formulation of the objective implies a reduction of the accident rate per operation or flight hour substantially greater than the rate of increase in traffic."

The scope of the performance objective is limited to accidents involving aircraft with a MTOW > 2.25 tonnes, operating under IFR. Reference needs to be made to the definition of “accident” in ESARR4 Appendix B (consistent with ICAO Annex 13), narrowed down to “ATM induced accidents” as specified in ESARR4 Appendix A. This covers accidents with direct and indirect ATM contribution.

Important note: while an initial strategic design objective and target is needed and has been established to guide further work in the context of SESAR, EUROCONTROL has a mandate for the development of a Risk Classification Scheme for the Design of ATM. This work, which will conclude in April 2008, will inter alia, establish whether quantified design targets for the ATM System are feasible, and if so, what those targets should be. This will be for all classes of risk, ranging from accidents to minor incidents. An expert group has been convened to progress this subject. The ultimate result will be taken into EC law.

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3.4.7 Security 3.4.7.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Security

This KPA covers a subset of aviation security. It addresses the risk, the prevention, the occurrence and mitigation of unlawful interference with flight operations of civil aircraft and other critical performance aspects of the ATM system. This includes attempts to use aircraft as weapons and to degrade air transport services. Unlawful interference can occur via direct interference with aircraft, or indirectly through interference with ATM service provision (e.g. via attacks compromising the integrity of ATM data or services). ATM security also includes the prevention of unauthorised access to and disclosure of ATM information.

Focus Areas Interference with aircraft trajectories This Focus Area covers aircraft trajectory changes which pose a security risk.

Direct interference with aircraft trajectories

This Focus Area covers aircraft trajectory changes initiated from within aircraft which pose a security risk. Causes include hijack, terrorist action etc. The ATM responsibility in this area is limited to providing support in the detection and mitigation of occurrences.

Indirect interference with aircraft trajectories

This Focus Area covers the risk of aircraft trajectory changes due to interference with ATM service provision, e.g. via attacks compromising the integrity of ATM data or services. Such ATM attacks can be classified as physical attacks, cyber attacks and radio spectrum attacks.

ATM information security

Focus is on unauthorised access to and disclosure of ATM information. This area covers operational data related to current flight operations and ATM service pro vision, as well as historical and forward looking ATM data not anymore (or not yet) relevant for operations (hence useless for attempts to degrade air transport services directly), but which may still be sensitive for a variety of reasons.

Note: Additional Focus Areas will need to be defined in D3 to address the performance of the ATM target system with regard to the provision of information to other organisations dealing with security and take into account the threat levels. Such focus Areas deal with the design of solutions supporting the achievement of the above mentioned strategic security outcome.

3.4.7.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Targets

No quantified targets can be specified at this moment, but the general objective for all Security Focus Areas is to provide a degree of resilience that is state of the art and commensurate with the security risk scenarios as agreed between the public and private stakeholders of the value chain.

Note:

1) It is apparent when considering the definition of ATM security that one of the objectives of security is to preserve the business continuity of the air transport industry. This aspect is not brought out in the explanations of the air transport value chain and the value to the public. This is particularly necessary when considering the ATM service to aviation as part of the national (or European) critical infrastructure. From that point of view, one of the goals of the terrorist may be to disrupt and disable the industry itself through loss of public confidence or by increasing the perceived threat to life and so cause damage national life or airlines or airport operators.

2) This KPA has not yet made a start with developing a Performance Measurement culture.

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The Performance Target

3.4.8 Environmental Sustainability 3.4.8.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Environmental sustainability

Aviation has a diverse impact on the environment, but not all aspects can be influenced by the ATM system. This KPA addresses the role of ATM in the management and control of environmental impacts. The aims are to reduce adverse environmental impacts (average per flight); to ensure that air traffic related environmental considerations are respected; and, that as far as possible new environmentally driven non-optimal operations and constraints are avoided or optimised as far as possible. This focus on environment must take place within a wider “sustainability33” scope that takes account of socio-economic effects34 and the synergies and trade-offs between different sustainability impacts.

Focus Areas Environmental constraint management

This focus area covers the broad responsibility of the ATM decision makers (e.g. environmental lawmakers, environmental regulators, local planning authorities and local rule makers) to avoid imposing any unnecessary environmentally driven constraint or non-optimal operational practice or constraints without incentives.

Best ATM Practice in Environmental This Focus Area covers ATMs ability to optimise the environmental performance Management of aircraft operations, ensuring that the environmental benefits arising from such improvements are assessed and recognised by the Sustainability Framework for ATM. Compliance with environmental rules

This Focus Area covers the degree to which environmentally driven traffic rules and constraints imposed on airports and airspace are respected.

Atmospheric Impacts

This Focus Area covers gaseous emissions (CO2, NOx, H2O, etc.), particulates and secondary effects (such as contrail triggered cirrus) generated in all flight phases (taxi, departure/arrival, en-route), and their impacts on both local air quality and the global climate.

Noise Impacts

This Focus Area covers noise generated during all flight phases (en-route = sonic boom) and its impact on affected population.

3.4.8.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

As a first step towards the political objective to enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the environment the initial indicative Environmental design targets are: • The aim is that all proposed environmentally related ATM constraints would be subject to a transparent assessment with an environment and socio-economic scope; and, following this assessment the best alternative solutions from a European Sustainability perspective are seen to be adopted.

• Local environmental rules affecting ATM are to be 100% respected (e.g. aircraft type restrictions, night movement bans, noise routes and noise quotas, etc.). Exceptions are only allowed for safety or security reasons.

• Noise emissions and their impacts are minimised for each flight to the greatest extent possible.

• Achieve the implicit emission improvements through the reduction of gate-to-gate excess fuel consumption addressed in the KPA Efficiency. However no specific separate target could be defined at this stage for the ATM contribution to atmospheric emission reductions.

• Minimise other adverse atmospheric effects to the greatest extent possible. Suitable indicators are yet to be developed.

Note: 1) The first two focus areas (i.e. Environmental constraint management and Best ATM Practice in Environmental Management) are more process related than outcome related, and therefore represent subjects internal to Task 1.1.4.

2) On the basis of the above qualitative approach, mature quantitative approach will have to be developed in D3.

3) ATM’s contribution to the reduction of aviation’s overall environmental impacts is limited to facilitating and managing aircraft flight and ground operations. Other parts of aviation34 must therefore continue to address this common challenge (e.g. through technology, airframe and engine improvements).

33 - For SESAR, sustainability is taken to mean achieving a balance between environmental, social and economic impacts and imperatives whilst serving demand. Management of any single impact should be decided in the light of associated impacts in other sustainability areas (e.g. noise constraints which may give rise to significantly increased atmospheric emissions and/or unacceptably high job loss or economic impact.

34 - E.g. Economic development, jobs, leisure, reduced mobility costs, safe and secure mobility, trans-European networks, global market connectivity etc.

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Note: (continued) ATM must demonstrate its effective management of those adverse impacts within its scope and must deliver continuous, cost effective and worthwhile improvements in the environmental performance of aircraft operations. At the same time ATM must be seen to be contributing to aviation’s positive socio-economic contributions to European Sustainable Development.

Success in this key performance area requires the achievement of a delicate and politically high profile balance between society’s demand for mobility and its demand for a good quality of life and environmental protection. Socio-political decision-making should support ATM development within this balance and should not impose counter productive, unnecessary or non-optimal rules and restrictions. Such ATM constraints may include delay in approval for new infrastructure, failure to protect airports from residential encroachment (land-use planning is integral with airspace design and operation) and the approval of conflicting environment and transport regulations. ATM also has therefore a responsibility to fully engage with these decision makers (including local communities), alongside other parts of aviation, to ensure ongoing support.

ATM will not be able to achieve its maximum contribution to European sustainability if decision makers adopt a sole focus on environmental issues without accounting for other sustainability impacts. Any environmentally inspired rule or constraint should be fully justifiable from an overall European sustainability perspective.

This focus on environmental performance within the wider scope of sustainability, together with achieving recognition and support from ATM’s external decision making is essential if ATM is to continually secure its licence to operate and grow.

The Performance Impact Model for Environmental Sustainability is shown below.

Materials

Engine, airframe and avionics technology

Noise from non aviation sources

Environmental Rulemaking

l nta s me tion iron regula v n E nd a ules

Aircraft Manufacturing

Other Influencing Factors

r

Performance characteristics of assigned aircraft

Aircraft Characteristics

Aircraft Sales & Storage Aircraft Characteristics

Aircraft Destruction

Fleet Management

Aircraft Dispatch

Fleet Characteristics

Scheduling

Actual fuel consumption

Flight Planning

Air transport demand

Noise impact on people

Local Atmospheric Effects

Local air quality

Aircraft noise

Flight Operations

Trajectory influence

Gas. emiss.

Gaseous emissions from aircraft

Global Climate Effects

ATM Operations

Other influencing factors

Materials

Noise Effects

Weather

Planned Trajectory

Route networks & schedules

Population distribution

Actual trajectories

Emissions from non aviation sources

Global warning

Other influencing factors

Air transport value

Figure 3-5 Performance impact model for environmental sustainability December 2006

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

3.4.9 Access and Equity 3.4.9.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Access and Equity

This KPA splits the management of airspace usage (and usage of other ATM resources such as airports and ATM services) into two distinct issues: access/segregation and equity/prioritization.

Focus Areas Access

This Focus Area covers the segregation issue: whether or not access rights to airspace and airports are solely based on the class of airspace user. In other words, is shared use by classes of airspace user allowed, and how much advance notice of this accessibility is provided.

Equity

The scope covers the subject of equitable access, i.e. the prioritisation issue: under shared use conditions (i.e. access is possible), to what extent is access priority based on the equipage of airspace user.

Dissatisfaction of airspace users regarding equitable treatment arises when there are no prioritisation rules, or the rules are not applied correctly.

3.4.9.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

No quantified design targets for access and equity have been defined yet; however qualitative objectives can be formulated as: For access: 1. Shared use of airspace and airports by different classes of airspace users will be significantly improved (classes defined by type of user, type of aircraft, type of flight rule).

2. Where shared use is conflicting with other performance expectations (safety, security, capacity, etc.), viable airspace/airport alternatives will be provided to satisfy the airspace users’ needs, in consultation with all affected stakeholder (see Participation KPA).

For equity: 1. For priority management, more options will be available than just the ‘first come first serve’ rule.

2. Priority rules will always be applied in a transparent, correct manner.

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3.4.10 Participation 3.4.10.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Participation

At the level of overall ATM performance, the KPA “Participation by the ATM Community” covers quite a diversity of objectives and involvement levels.

Participation by the ATM community can be considered in the following dimensions: a) Separate involvement issues and approaches apply for each of the ATM lifecycle phases: planning, development, deployment, operation and evaluation/improvement of the system. b) “Meeting the (sometimes conflicting) expectations of the community” implies that participation and involvement should be explicitly pursued for each of the other Key Performance Areas. c) Involvement should be monitored and managed per segment of the ATM community.

The three dimensions serve as a framework for focused tracking of the various participation and involvement initiatives, assessment of the actual level of involvement against the desired level, and identification of weaknesses and improvement opportunities. The aim is to achieve a balanced approach to ATM community involvement.

Different methods and levels of involvement are possible: informing the community, obtaining feedback and advice from the community, collaborative decision making and consensus building.

3.4.10.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Targets

No quantified design targets have been defined for Participation by the ATM Community. However the qualitative aim (general performance objective) is to improve participation: • During all ATM lifecycle phases: planning, development, deployment, operation and evaluation/improvement of the system • For all performance areas: access and equity, capacity, cost effectiveness, efficiency, environment, flexibility, global interoperability, predictability, safety, security • By involvement of all ATM community segments The following participation techniques will be used as appropriate: - Informing the community, - Obtaining feedback and advice from the community, - Collaborative decision-making and consensus building.

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

3.4.11 Interoperability 3.4.11.1 Definition and Scope of the KPA and its Focus Areas Key Performance Area Interoperability

At the level of overall ATM performance, the main purpose of interoperability KPA is to facilitate homogeneous and non-discriminatory global and regional traffic flows.

Applying global standards and uniform principles, and ensuring the technical and operational interoperability of aircraft and ATM systems are to be seen as supporting (enabling) objectives for the above main objective.

Focus Areas Homogeneous traffic flows

This Focus Area addresses the extent to which the Focus Areas “ Application of standards and uniform principles” and “Technical and operational interoperability of aircraft and ATM systems” have an impact on the efficiency of business trajectories for intra-European and intercontinental flights.

Non-discriminatory traffic flows

This Focus Area addresses the extent to which the Focus Areas “ Application of global standards and uniform principles” and “Technical and operational interoperability of aircraft and ATM systems” have an impact on access for intra-European and intercontinental flights.

Application of global standards and uniform principles

Self-explanatory.

Technical and operational interoperability of aircraft and ATM systems

Self-explanatory.

3.4.11.2 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Target

No quantified design target has been defined in the area of interoperability. However, qualitative objectives can be formulated which describe the required impact of interoperability improvements.

The application of standards and uniform principles, together with improved technical and operational interoperability of aircraft and ATM Systems will enable a measurable improvement of: - The efficiency of business trajectories for intra-European and intercontinental flights.

- Airspace and airport related access for intra-European and intercontinental flights.

- Airspace and airport related equity for intra-European and intercontinental flights.

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3.5 Conclusions This document lays the foundation for a performance-based approach to the development and operation of the future European ATM System: • Based on a high level (political) performance vision, a number of top level initial indicative strategic performance targets have been defined in order to guide the design works; They have to be recognised as working assumptions and will then have to be cascaded down to lower level targets by subsequent Tasks in the SESAR Definition Phase. In any case it should be recognized that the long-term (2020) initial indicative design targets are going to be achieved in a progressive manner, starting from today’s actual performance levels (baseline performance) via short and medium term intermediate targets (no intention to rely on big-bang improvement to reach the 2020 targets in one giant step).

• In order to operate the future ATM System in a performancebased manner, a performance framework has been defined which includes a “vertical” dimension (decomposition of the performance processes: how (well) is performance regulated, planned, delivered, measured, reviewed and improved) and a “horizontal” dimension (dealing with performance scope: definition of Key Performance Areas, Focus Areas, initial objectives etc.).

The reader should keep in mind that the present material represents no more than working assumptions for a coordinated, consistent performance based approach in the remaining SESAR Tasks, rather than the complete and all-encompassing treatment of the ‘performance’ subject. This implies amongst other things that the design targets contained in this document represent initial indicative targets (working assumptions), subject to further analysis and validation. It should be noted that the allocation of responsibility for achieving these targets involves all stakeholders and that many details of the performance based approach will have to be worked out by subsequent SESAR milestones, based on guidance and principles contained in this chapter.

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4 Short-Term Improvements Baseline 4.1 Short-term Context D1 identified the most relevant blocking points in the airspace and airport domain areas. An objective of the ATM Master Plan will be a planning of activities for short-term improvements to be implemented between 2008 and 2013, which will deliver benefits while ensuring continued return on investment. Leading to this objective, this chapter gives an outline of solutions, which have the potential to resolve these blocking points of current operations in the short timeframe. The list of solutions is not intended to be exhaustive, and many local initiatives also contribute to resolving blocking points, although these are not all explicitly identified here.

The subsequent SESAR Milestones will take over these results to perform a trade-off of the various alternatives, assess the costs associated with the implementation and identify and stimulate the required validation and standardisation activities, taking into account the need to align the short-term actions with the 2020 selected concept. The recommendations described in the present chapter will then be further consolidated.

The initiatives and best practices have been selected taking into account the driving blockers identified during Milestone 1. Priority is given to the ones which: 1 Reduce fragmentation, at all levels of the European ATM System.

2 Address the lack of flexibility of the ATM network and, at local level, find ways of providing varying levels of operational ATM capacity in real-time.

3 Emphasise the need to implement a really integrated ATM network that includes airport operators, airspace users, TMAs and en-route airspace instead of a collection of more or less isolated solutions.

4 Promote a simplified European framework together with a performance-based approach satisfying all categories of airspace users’ requirements.

For each solution, expert judgement has been used, based on individuals’ expertise and taking into account several factors. Among others are the number and severity of the impacted blocking points, time and ease of implementation, cost of implementation (CBA results have been used where available), environmental impact, contribution to the transition to future concepts and safety impact. As the objective is to select the solutions that have the potential to realise real benefits in the European network in the short-term, the current maturity of the solutions is of particular importance.

The following definitions are used throughout this chapter: • A solution is Promising when a positive proof-of-concept exists and trials have been initiated or carried out for operational implementation.

• A solution is Mature when it relies on proven technologies or concepts, i.e. already implemented or being implemented35.

Whereas it is clearly recognised that almost all potential solutions address several KPAs, in the following description, they have been grouped by themes under the most directly addressed KPA36. A description of the KPAs impacted by each solution is available in Table 4.3.

35 - Description and assessment of all initiatives considered is available in DLT-0607-321 and DLT-0607-322 in their applicable issues 36 - The order of the sections in chapter 4 is not linked to any ranking of the KPAs

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4.2 Capacity 4.2.1 Airspace The challenge in terms of capacity in the airspace environment in the short-term is to meet the traffic growth demand and to limit en-route delay. European ATM network capacity will require an increase of 27% between 2005 and 201137.

Among the current initiatives aiming at improving and making the best use of the available airspace capacity, two in particular stand out: namely DMEAN and the ATFCM Strategy and Evolution Plan, because of their big potential to address the key issues of planning, designing and managing the European ATM network in an integrated approach and to deliver immediate benefits in the SESAR short-term period38.

The analysis of the DMEAN case study at Maastricht UAC in 2005 indicates that average delivered capacity increased by 26%. This “provides a useful indicator of the latent capacity that can be released by wide-ranging and co-ordination actions and its beneficial impact”.

Nonetheless, it is necessary for DMEAN to adequately consider General Aviation VFR needs for access to lower airspace. It is also important for GA IFR to focus on optimal routings and flexibility in lower airspace (outside terminal areas).

The ATFCM Strategy aims at widening the notion of Traffic Flow and Capacity Management from the mere allocation of slots to the optimisation of traffic patterns and capacity management with the emphasis on optimising the network capacity through collaborative decisionmaking processes. This short-term improvement is seen as an important building block for the future ATM operational environment.

In a context of an increasing proportion of ATFM delays due to sector staffing issues39, airspace capacity improvements in the short-term will also depend on the appropriate recruitment and training of ATCOs. The 8.33 KHz Programme is the only technical solution available in the short-term to address the key issue of ensuring additional VHF frequencies. It was already implemented above FL245 and its implementation will continue between FL195-245 in 2007. The implementation below FL195 raises strong issues for General Aviation, small regional operators and the military community (for the latter also above FL195), which will require retrofit. The development of a business case for below FL195, shortly to be disclosed by EUROCONTROL, is planned to address the impacts on General Aviation and small regional operators.

It is stressed that all initiatives to improve the efficiency of the usage of the aeronautical VHF communication spectrum are essential and should be further promoted. A re-enforced approach to spectrum management is necessary to free up frequencies in core congested regions of Europe and a closer planning with military authorities will be beneficial. Currently, a frequency management service established at EUROCONTROL provides States with a centralised, reliable and updated information system on actual frequency allocation as well as with the necessary tools and know-how to support their frequency management and planning activities.

On a more general note the initiatives related to aeronautical Spectrum Protection must be fully supported at all levels as they defend a scarce resource for aviation that is currently under serious threat. The development of an Aeronautical European Common Position (AECP) on CNS spectrum issues is important and its adoption in the ITU WRC 0740 decision should be accelerated by a strong support at political level.

Technical enablers Whereas the long-term concept for the European ATM System will be defined at a later stage of SESAR, it is foreseen that it will encompass: • Better and safer use of Airspace which captures the best use of advanced aircraft capabilities (tailored 4D RNAV with reliable navigation and surveillance means, including RNP as recommended by the Performance Based Navigation Manual by ICAO) • Increased use of digital data communication as an enabler of air craft/ground and ground/ground ATCOs communication improvement (especially for strategic and high density messages, 4D trajectories) Short-term improvements should enable the transition toward these concept elements, while ensuring global interoperability.

In the technical development area, different important initiatives have been identified, which cover all technical domains. They are oriented to a better use or a more widespread implementation of existing technology or equipment, which is seen as the most effective and cost-beneficial method to achieve improvements on a short-term basis. Of significance, in terms of opportunity, is that there is no duplication between initiatives with the focus of each initiative addressing a particular domain.

37 - Source EUROCONTROL Capacity webpage: “In order to meet [the medium growth scenario] and to achieve and maintain the en-route delay target, the Summer season European ATM network capacity will require a increase of 27%.”

38 - It is recognised that several other solutions, like P-RNAV, FASTI or Data link will also have significant impact on capacity in the short-term (refer to 4.5 Interoperability and Table 4.3).

39 - Source EUROCONTROL document PC/06/26/8: DEBRIEFING ON THE SUMMER 2006 TRAFFIC SITUATION. “Reported incidents of Staff Shortage have increased considerably during the summer of 2006, and the corresponding delay has risen by 124% in comparison with summer 2005” 40 - International Telecommunication Union, World Trade Organisation 2007.

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P-RNAV is strongly recommended for full and swift implementation. Additionally the initiatives of LINK 2000+ in the short term and CASCADE in the short/medium term are critical steps toward wide implementation of data-link technologies and applications.

Data-link solutions are expected to bring significant improvement in capacity (E.g. 11% increase in sector capacity is expected if 75% of aircraft are equipped in CPDLC).

According to AEA and IATA41, ADS-B based on Mode S 1090 extended squitter is recognized as a prime enabler of critical ATM applications42, bringing potentially substantial safety and capacity benefits. Moreover, ADS-B is also supported by GA and guarantees the required interoperability with the USA.

site and infrastructure limits (two thirds of airports with constraints), followed by environmental issues (half of the airports), and physical constraints related to surrounding airspace and geography (one third).

Nevertheless, the analysis shows that there is latent peak hour capacity45 within the majority of European airports that could be unlocked through a Europe-wide dissemination of best practices. One methodology for addressing these issues is already available in Europe, offered by EUROCONTROL in the frame of the ACE project.

ACE has already brought about measurable benefits at a number of airports in Europe, with up to 20% expected runway capacity increase in average. A typical example is the Prague airport, where after implementing phase I of the ACE method declared capacity increased from 34 to 38 movements an hour46.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Support the implementation of DMEAN and ATFCM Strategy and Evolution Plan - Mature 2. States/ANSPs with experience of local implementation best practices, which are aligned with the DMEAN principles, should share their knowledge across the European net work – Mature 3. Support 8.33 programme, while tackling GA and military retrofit issues – Mature 4. Support frequency assignment and promote frequency management improvement – Mature 5. Support implementation of P-RNAV, Link2000+, CASCADE - Mature to promising

4.2.2 Airport D1 states that under optimal conditions (which also means considering regional airports working at full capacity), “Existing airport capacity in Europe is capable of absorbing a maximum of twice the traffic demand of 2003. [At the current demand growth pace] Consequently, it is reasonable to assume a practical capacity barrier will be reached between 2013 and 2015. Consequently, in order to meet the SESAR challenge and break though this (capacity) barrier, sufficient capacity in the basic ATM infrastructure (...) including airports must be created.” In the long term, additional airport infrastructure will have to be developed43 ; in the short term capacity gains at airports are only possible by improving operational procedures.

New operational products derived from European R&D have recently been introduced and start delivering promising capacity benefits. These are based on a proactive planning of operations, an integrated arrival, surface and departure management, and extended automation. These products implement the first applications of the integrated AMAN / DMAN / SMAN concept.

Several European airports (e.g., Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Madrid) have already implemented AMAN/DMAN systems. The technology itself is mature and readily available off the shelf. While different providers exist, and capabilities differ in detail, they have a largely common functionality. For instance, the DMAN implementation at Munich Airport, in combination with Airport CDM has already achieved a reduction in process time between off-blocks (ATD) and airborne (ATOT) of 10 to 15%. The benefit not only translates in less delay and less fuel consumption (less air pollution) but also in a more efficient use of resources (stands, ground equipment, etc)47.

To optimize the overall performance of the airport, sequencing tools such as AMAN and DMAN, currently implemented independently, should be coupled and integrated with the surface management tools (SMAN, A-SMGCS, etc). Current development of these tools points towards this direction. In Frankfurt a first stage of SMAN is currently under development, and it has been implemented at several Asian airports already. The tool makes use of Mode-S and ground radar surveillance data to plan the outbound traffic and to update and optimise the departure sequence of DMAN.

Almost 80% of the airport operators reported in the CTG0444 study indicate that they will be unable to achieve the capacity of the best performing airports. The most frequently cited reasons for this were physical

41 - European ADS-B Link Strategy Letter from IATA.AEA dated March 10th, 2003 42 - Examples of such applications are: Surveillance in a non Radar environment and enhanced situational awareness for the pilot with Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) 43 - Building of new runways and taxiways will have to take into account compatibility with the local constraints (environment, land use, etc) 44 - Challenge to growth, 2004, ECAC / EUROCONTROL 45 - Challenge to growth, 2004, page 10, ECAC / EUROCONTROL 46 - Other examples can be found in SESAR Task 3.2.2 D2 deliverable (DLT-0607-322-00-01 or later version) 47 - It must be noted that full benefits of the AMAN and DMAN systems will be delivered only if the trajectory used by those tools is both accurate and consistent with the information in the rest of the ATM system, which is currently not always the case.

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4.2 Capacity (continued) The lack of accuracy of weather forecast is also an existing blocker to the full use of existing capacity. For instance, current operational practice at Amsterdam Airport shows that the forecast on extreme weather conditions is accurate in about 30% of times, resulting in 10 to 15 situations a year where flow restrictions are not adapted to the actual weather conditions48. Whereas initiatives to improve this situation in the medium to long timeframe49 exist, no potential solution has been found in the short term. The initiation of research and development on improved accuracy of aviation weather forecast must be strongly promoted and supported.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Implement EUROCONTROL ACE recommended best practices – Mature 2. Implement or complement / support airport management airside, AMAN / DMAN / SMAN Arrival, Departure and Surface Manager (including apron management and stand /gate management) –AMAN and DMAN are mature, SMAN – Promising 3. Promote R&D on improved accuracy of weather forecast for ATM purposes

4.3 Efficiency and Predictability 4.3.1 Airspace

4.3.2 Airport

Important improvements can be achieved for what concerns flight efficiency in Airspace. The full implementation of the existing plans for an improved ATS route network in Europe (ATS Route Network ARN V5) has the potential to save airlines approximately 130000 km of flying distance per day. This means a reduction of approximately 2% of the average distance flown in the European airspace, and would lead to savings of approximately €200Mn/year50.

Operational efficiency improvements rely on seamless operations within the entire network. This requires extensive cooperation / collaboration between all stakeholders and integration of airports within the network. In the absence of complete and timely information, operational decisions of individual actors at airports may often not be the optimal ones. The result is a degradation of the efficiency of the airports operation, with a direct impact on predictability. This is particularly true in case of bad weather or other unforeseen events at congested airports, with negative effects spreading across the ATM network. Until now, despite individual actors’ efforts, efficiency has been based on improving individual operations rather than considering airport stakeholders as a team.

Further reductions of 1.5% will be possible through the deployment of the ATS Route Network ARN V6 that is expected to fully apply the principles of the DMEAN Operational Concept. The implementation of enhanced ground and airborne systems will increase the potential for offering direct routes in real time that could save an additional €200Mn/year51.

Best practices like UK JFADT and German MVPA trials involving FUA and increased civil/military coordination should also be promoted. Such initiatives are extremely important for the military community, as they enable continued performance of OAT basic missions and training, with a minimum effect on congested European airspace. More flexibility and ability by air operators to use airspace released or unutilised by the military is a means to improve route efficiency, as well as more generally the harmonisation of OAT rules.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Implement ARN V5 and V6 - Mature 2. Promote FUA and civil/military coordination best practices implementation and OAT harmonisation – Mature

4.3.2.1 Airport CDM Airport CDM (A-CDM) is an operational management practice based on objectives and processes, commonly agreed between Airport Operator, ANSP and Airspace Users. By enabling decisionmaking based on accurate information, shared in a timely manner, A-CDM increases the overall efficiency of the airport operations and improves predictability, notably in case of bad weather or other unforeseen events.

Tools – like software for developing a good human interface – and supporting IT infrastructures are mature and available, supporting the A-CDM processes. For instance, ADP has demonstrated that a web-based approach can exist in parallel with the current IT infrastructure of airports and that AMAN/DMAN/SMAN and A-CDM are complementary.

48 - In addition, PRR 2005 indicates that around 40% of airport ATFM delays and 10% of en-route delays are initially due to weather, 49 - Long term (2015 2020) MET strategy, developed by ICAO Europe, in cooperation with EUROCONTROL 50 - Source EUROCONTROL ARN V5 Report 51 - Source EUROCONTROL PRR 2005 – differences between filed routes and actual routes December 2006

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The EEC Report No 371 states: “Experience gathered so far through airport CDM show that an important source of benefits for reducing delays as a whole in Europe and achieving the best use of scarce resources relies on improving the reliability and predictability of a very reduced set of data in the airport”52. In Europe, A-CDM has already brought measurable benefits at a number of airports. Airport CDM is a cost effective solution to improve efficiency and predictability in airport operations. The magnitude of expected benefits is of the order of €90Mn (over 10 years, all stakeholders included). The business case for Airport CDM is extremely positive, showing a benefit to cost ratio of 9 to 1. The costs incurred for a typical Airport CDM project (over 10 years, all stakeholders included) are in the order of €11Mn, from which the initial implementation investment is only in the order of €3Mn and the related recurrent operational costs are of the order of €8Mn. The full return of investment or payback period for all stakeholders is within 2 years and the risk of financial loss is practically non-existent53.

European Airports currently implementing A-CDM processes are London Heathrow; Milan Malpensa; Stockholm Arlanda; Brussels Zaventem; Barcelona; Zurich; Budapest; Munich; Lisbon; Paris CDG; Helsinki; Amsterdam Schiphol; Athens (a total of 13 airports). Other European airports are also planning to implement CDM processes.

In the USA, the economic benefits estimated by the FAA from the reduction of delays through implementation of CDM is above $200Mn/year on average, since 199854.

Experience of the successful implementation of the infrastructure for A-CDM has identified key risks, which need to be addressed for a successful implementation: • Lack of commitment or resources of the different stakeholders • The unwillingness of airport partners to share data because of their (perceived) commercial value.

4.3.2.2 Regional CDM Regional CDM consists of linking into a network A-CDM airports and the Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU). This collaborative airport management in a network wide context requires interfaces of a common standard to be built between the actors - the airport operators and the CFMU. This can best be done by building on existing initiatives, like DMEAN for instance.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Implement Airport CDM – Mature 2. Support the DMEAN programme and implement recommended best practices as a way of building further bridges between the airport and the network operations – Mature

4.4 Cost Effectiveness Current information concerning the evolution of ATM cost-effectiveness in Europe shows that the measures taken at local and network level will reduce the direct unit cost per km flown (users costs) by approximately 15% by 2010. Other initiatives at local and network level will have the potential to further increase productivity and reduce fragmentation thus bringing additional cost savings to the airspace users. It has been evaluated55 that the lack of common systems and coordination at the ATS Units' interfaces accounts for approximately 23% (€190-325Mn) of the entire cost resulting from fragmentation.

Many of the solutions described under other Key Performance Areas have also the potential to bring significant improvement in cost-effectiveness. Examples are: • DMEAN (section 4.2.1) will improve network efficiency. At full implementation airlines are expected to save between €2-2.7 Bn/year56. The CBA also shows a benefits/costs ratio of approximately 9.

• FASTI (section 4.5) will improve sector productivity.

FABs are seen as the first step to reorganise the European ANSP environment, and are expected to bring operational benefits before 2012 in terms of Cost-Effectiveness. Table 4.3 identifies other initiatives and solutions, which contribute to cost-effectiveness.

52 - EEC Report No 371 53 - Those figures are given as orders of magnitude only, actual figures are expected to be published in December 2006 by EURC in an update of A-CDM CBA. 54 - Source: US CDM web site: http://cdm.fly.faa.gov/index.html 55 - Source: "The impact of fragmentation in European ATM/CNS", study commissioned by the PRC, Iss. April 2006 56 - Source “Cost Benefit Analysis for DMEAN” March 2006

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4.5 Interoperability Several initiatives address the key issues of planning, designing and implementing enhanced flight data processing systems capable of supporting advanced operational concepts through state-ofart technologies. The implementation of these new FDP57 systems and their improved interoperability, planned by most of the European ANSPs over the next 5-7 years and done through a close co-operation between ANSPs and system manufacturers, is critical to enable the transition towards new operational concepts. Other initiatives like FASTI, introduce improvements on controller tools, data interchange and integrity. FASTI has the potential to bring the required system support to ATC and to ensure additional sector capacities of up to 15% by reducing controller workload58. Initiatives like AIM/CHAIN enable the move towards the concept of System Wide Information Management (SWIM).

Finally, it must be noted that improvements in interoperability are also expected to come in the short-term from the interoperability Implementing Rules in the frame of the SES regulation.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Support implementation of initiatives addressing interoperability of ATCO support tools and system wide information management like for instance FDPS, FASTI, AIM, CHAIN, which enable the move toward advanced operational concepts – Mature to promising

4.6 Safety On the airspace side, there are a number of explicit safety initiatives that address safety improvements for the European ATM. These are mostly related to improvements in safety regulation and management, level busts and data integrity. Other initiatives like ATFCM and DMEAN for instance are not directly related to safety, but the improvements proposed contribute to a better airspace design and decrease of controller workload, which have an important impact on the development of a safe ATM network in Europe.

The initiatives covering technical enablers have also a direct contribution to safety by offering an improved ATC infrastructure59.

Meeting the challenge of maintaining and where possible improving safety levels in the short term will require the deployment of a consistent approach to improving safety management in Europe. The European Safety Programme is considered to be the most suitable vehicle to generate the necessary changes.

The specific objective of the European Safety Programme is to ensure that all ECAC States take all necessary actions to ensure that enhancements to ATM safety are maximised in the most cost efficient manner and shortest possible time. Its main tasks will cover implementation and support of European safety legislation/ regulation, incident reporting and data sharing, risk assessment and mitigation in day-to-day operations, system safety defences and safety management enhancement.

Airport operators face a challenge in maintaining or improving current safety levels. Increasing movements and traffic complexity on

runways, taxiways and apron lead to an increasing risk especially during low surface visibility conditions. Runway incursions are the most critical airfield safety issue with currently more than one runway incursion per day within the ECAC region60 (albeit the recent increase may reflect improved reporting and the risks associated are not necessarily severe).

Most of the larger airports (Amsterdam, Frankfurt, London, Paris, Vienna, Zurich, etc.) have recently invested in enhanced surveillance, A-SMGCS and other measures to prevent runway incursion.

They are reviewing their procedures according to the European Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions (EAPPRI).

EAPPRI includes recommendations, which will enhance safety and involve actors from Airport Operators, ANSP and Airspace users.

While many of the medium size and smaller airports are still struggling with the high costs of such surface management systems, there are alternatives. Depending on the traffic volume of the respective airport, SMR (Surface Movement Radar) in combination with other sensors may be a cheaper alternative. There are also other technical solutions available such as ADS-B and even multilateration when combined with surveillance in the TMA (e.g.

Innsbruck airport).

The harmonisation of the procedures associated to A-SMGCS (for example the use of Mode-S transponder for ground/apron control) as well as systems and personnel certification are the most important issues to be addressed.

57 - A not exhaustive alphabetical list of the most relevant new FDPS: CoFlight, COOPANS, CroATMS, FATMI, LISATM, MATIAS, N-FDPS, One ATM System, P1-iTEC, P1-VAFORIT, SACTA-iTEC 58 - Source EUROCONTROL FASTI Programme Management Plan 59 - See Table 4.3 for the list of promoted solutions that have impact on the Safety KPA 60 - Study by EUROCONTROL Airport Operations Unit

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Table 4.1: Scenarios for cost & benefits derived from the implementation of A-SMGCS Scenario

Total one-time costs

Operating costs (p.a.)

Overall Benefits (p.a)

Benefit / Cost Ratio

A

€3.47 - 3.87 Mn

€0.30 - 0.68 Mn

€0.64 - 0.90 Mn

1.3 - 1.5

B

€4.54 - 6.64 Mn

€0.05 - 0.12 Mn

€0.13 - 0.65 Mn

2.4 - 3.0

A-SMGCS has a direct positive impact on safety, by providing complete situational awareness to the controller under all weather conditions, and in addition delivers operational gains. In the draft version of EUROCONTROL’s “Generic Cost Benefit Assessment of A-SMGCS”61 two scenarios are evaluated: • Scenario A – medium-sized airports with expected levels of weather related delay of 50k minutes annually.

• Scenario B – large airports with expected levels of weather related delay of 100k minutes annually.

70-100% of the recommended actions of EAPPRI are fully or partly implemented at more than 100 ECAC airports. This has led to a decreasing number of class A and B incidents62, but a proof of evidence is nevertheless difficult unless a “just-culture” for incident reporting is introduced and legally supported on a global

scale. The PRC recommendation (PRR 2005): supports the EUROCONTROL SAFREP report’s recommendations, which should be implemented as soon as possible. Specific actions should be urgently undertaken to assist individual States/ANSPs in meeting their safety reporting obligations.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Deployment of the European Safety Programme for an early implementation of a common safety management system – Mature.

2. Implement A-SMGCS – Levels I and II coordinated with EAPPRI (European Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions) – Mature.

4.7 Environment According to the CTG04 study, in the near term (2005–2010), improving fuel efficiency (on the basis of the flight efficiency initiatives as described in section 4.3) is the most potentially rewarding approach to directly reduce air transport’s climatic impacts.

Moreover environmental issues (noise, air quality, climate change and pollution by run-off liquids) are complex challenges for most of the European airports, which need to be managed proactively to improve the acceptance of the local community for airport expansion and local airspace changes63.

Environmental issues should be tackled in an open culture through a Collaborative Environmental Management Programme with:

• The local communities fully integrated in the decision-making processes. The airport operator, ANSP and Users should regularly report and ensure community recognition of good practice.

• Implementing improved operational procedures with support by readily available technical enablers64 in accordance with the ICAO balanced approach. (E.g. CDA, P-RNAV, GPU instead of APU delivering conditioned air and electricity, etc.).

A number of European airports have started to introduce the Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) technique, which minimises fuel use, gaseous emissions and noise impact, by the arriving aircraft descending with idle thrust and avoiding level flight.

• All ATM operational stakeholders adopting a robust sustainability policy.

• A management system to facilitate standard setting, monitoring and continuous improvement including sharing best practices and assessments of trade offs (E.g. noise, NOx, CO2).

61 - A-SMGCS brings Efficiency & Throughput benefits (for instance, the ASMGCS CBA shows: 5% increase in throughput in all weather conditions, 10% reduction in weather delays, 5% reduction in taxi time) 62 - Category A: Very serious risk incidents; Category B: Significant risk incidents; source EAPPRI, EUROCONTROL 63 - CTG, 2004, Page 51, ECAC / EUROCONTROL 64 - CTG, 2004, page 54, ECAC / EUROCONTROL

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Table 4.2: Environmental benefits of Local Flight Operational Performance Committee at Gatwick Airport Criteria

2001/02

2005/06

Percentage Reduction

Noise infringements – Day

42 infringements of limit

26 infringements of limit

Noise infringements – Night

22 infringements of limit

10 infringements of limit

55%

Track deviations

5.06% off track (1998)

0.55% off track (2003)

89%

Continuous descent approach (core night)

74% CDA

84% CDA

13.5% Improvement

38%

Continuous descent approach

68% CDA

78% CDA

14.7% Improvement

1000ft requirement

253 aircraft below 1000ft

23 aircraft below 1000ft

91%

Above and beyond the safety advantages that P-RNAV provides, the enhanced accuracy capability of P-RNAV approved aircraft means that less airspace is required to accommodate P-RNAV terminal area procedures. As such capacity and environmental benefits can be obtained e.g., specific SIDs and STARs can be designed to accommodate different environmental requirements for night and day operations.

A positive example for collaborative environmental management is the Local Flight Operational Performance Committee (FLOPC) hosted by BAA. In this committee, compliance to operational procedures and their environmental performance are discussed and results show clearly the benefits of involving the appropriate actors. The table below tracks the improving environmental performance for BAA Gatwick. The Flight Evaluation Unit that supports the monthly Flight Operations Performance Committee has produced these figures. Airline members of the Flight Operations Performance Committee support the airport operator at regular consultations with the local community.

There are operational benefits to environmentally ”aware” procedures. As an example British Airways reported that a (CDA) from 6000ft to touchdown at Heathrow reduces fuel consumption 200400kg per approach compared to previous practice. Further CDA trials demonstrated that noise reduction of up to 6dB could be

achieved at track distances more than 5 NM to touch down (the noise reduction potential varies between different aircraft types).

The greatest risk in building a culture of environmental collaboration decision-making is the local community’s perception of the operations at the airport and their confidence in the airport authorities.

Recommendations for the short term

1. Implement harmonized procedures and techniques, based on existing technical enablers in current aircraft, which improve flight efficiency, navigational accuracy and flexibility (CDA, P-RNAV/RNP, GBAS, leading to 4D approaches65) – Mature to promising 2. Stakeholders should adopt a challenging and robust sustainability policy, achieving the optimum possible balance between social, environmental and economic impeditives – Mature 3. Implement Collaborative Environmental Management (including tools) between ATC, users, airport operators surrounding communities – Concept is mature, the processes are less mature

4.8 Security In the overall framework of Aviation Security, ATM Security is a major component. The NATO/EUROCONTROL ATM Security Coordination Group (NEASCOG) has set up a Programme of Work to enhance ATM Security. This Programme of Work includes several actions applicable for the short-term, for instance:

• Facilitate and support the development and implementation of standards, guidelines procedures, methods and tools for ATM Security including support to the ATM Master Plan.

• Develop and implement an ATM Security Management System.

• Facilitate the development and agreement on ATM Security performance targets66.

65 - Examples of such applications are the green flight initiatives on 4-D time controlled arrivals which have been tested in some European airports (for more information see T321/D2 section 4.2.3.13) 66 - Source: NEASCOG POW Management Plan – Draft – Version 0.2

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4.9 Expected Performance Improvements Each proposed solution, be it a specific project or a generic technical or operational area, has been associated with one or several KPAs in order to describe, in a qualitative way, the performance

benefits expected from their individual implementation67. Table 4.3 shows the expected impact per KPA. Only the most promising ones have been retained.

Table 4.3: Assessment of the level of contribution of selected solutions to KPAs and their maturity

Sustainability Security

Efficiency

Predictability

Flexibility

Capacity

CostEffectiveness

Access & equity

Participation

Interoperability

Performance Enablers

Environmental Sustainability

Operational Performance

Safety

Societal Outcome

Maturity

ATFCM

+

+

+

++

++

+

++

+

+

++

+

Mature

DMEAN

+

+

+

++

++

++

++

+

++

++

+

Mature

New FDPS

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

AIM Activities

+

++

++

++

Mature

CASCADE

++

+

+

++

Promising

CHAIN

++

+

++

++

Mature

Selected solution

+ +

+

+ +

+

+

+

++ Mature/Promising

FASTI

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

++

++

Promising

LINK 2000+

++

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

++

Mature

P-RNAV

++

++

++

+

+

+

+

+

++

Mature

European Safety Programme

++

+

++

A-SMGCS level I and II

++

EAPPRI

++

AMAN/DMAN

+

+

+

+

ACE

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Collaborative environmental management systems

+

+

+

+

Mature Mature

++

+

Mature

++

++

Mature

++

Mature/Promising

++

CDA RNAV / RNP

+

Mature

+

SMAN 8.33

+

CDM

+

++

+

++

++

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

++

+

+

++

++

+

Mature

+

Promising +

Mature Mature

Legend blank = neutral; + = positive impact; ++ = substantially positive impact

67 - Notwithstanding the fact that some quantitative data exists and have been used for some solutions/KPAs, the bulk of the assessment is of qualitative nature, based on expert judgment. It will be further consolidated in subsequent activities of SESAR on the short-term improvements, including the interactions between several initiatives.

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4.10 Conclusion The design and operation of a fully integrated European ATM network, that includes the airports and is not artificially limited by political boundaries or constraints has the potential to bring significant savings. The full commitment of the States and Stakeholders to implement the solutions identified in SESAR will be essential. While it is recognised that a number of very valuable local initiatives could improve local situations, the emphasis has voluntarily been given to more collective solutions that have the potential to bring benefits across the whole network.

The initiatives recommended above could bring savings to the European ATM sector in the range of €0.5-1Bn/year. Of which at least one third comes from a more efficient use of existing airspace and airport resources.

A considerable help to the transition to a performance based ATM System can come from the EUROCONTROL Performance Review Commission (PRC). This body advises on the development of the performance review and target setting system. It proposes overall objectives for improvement of ATM System performance, develops performance indicators for monitoring and analysis of ATM System performance, identifies targets to be set for ATM System improvements, produces guidelines for economic regulation of ATM service providers and a number of complementary functions.

The distribution of the annual Performance Review Report, the PRC’s main output, should be further increased to ensure that all stakeholders are included and are able to compare and challenge their own performance with the performance of their peers.

On the airport side, it can be noted that for the large European airports, which are capacity constrained, the value of the evaluated short term improvements is not as significant as for the medium, fast growing airports.

Despite significant improvements over the past two decades, a number of factors prevented initiatives like PHARE in the 80’s, EATCHIP in the early 90’s and EATMP later on, all of which were designed to improve European ATM, to provide their full benefits.

These factors include: lack of political commitment; lack of persistence and consistency in the validation efforts resulting in insufficiently conclusive results; complex individual transition paths; and possibly diverging commercial interests. A political commitment at European as well as at national level is required to support the necessary changes for the short time frame.

In the airspace domain, if ARN V5/V6 are fully implemented, together with the DMEAN operational concept, more significant saving will be achieved, possibly tripling the above-mentioned benefits by the end of the short-term period68.

68 - EUROCONTROL ARN V5 Report, DMEAN CBA and EUROCONTROL PRR2005

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5 Principles For The Way Forward to 2020 5.1 Introduction This chapter describes the way forward to the vision described in chapter 2. It identifies sets of principles are identified, which determine how changes to the conduct of ATM will be undertaken.

Following the structure defined in chapter 2, it addresses the way forward for the following items:

• The ATM business management framework • The ATM institutional and regulatory framework • Subjects of common interest (incl. standardisation process and financial aspects) • The future architecture of the ATM System • The role of human in the future ATM

• The societal expectation to ATM (environment and security) • The performance framework

5.2 The Societal Expectations of ATM This section describes the way forward to the vision of the environmental and the security aspects of the ATM. The way forward to the safety vision is addressed by the institutional and regulatory framework and by the performance framework.

5.2.1 The Environmental Aspects of ATM A wide collection of environmental initiatives, best practice and R&D activities have been identified69. Their effectiveness is to be demonstrated but most of the short-term improvements have identified promising benefits through local best practices.

The following principles should drive the way forward: • Foster a common culture amongst society and the aviation sector, including emerging perceptions, needs and expectations, for a sustainable aviation system.

• Ensure that the decision-making process for any sustainable airport development is based on trust and mutual understanding between the aviation industry and the community, leading to a “license to operate agreement” between parties involved.

• The Air Transport Industry acknowledges the need to address the environmental responsibilities of the aviation sector via a bundle of measures ranging from further technological

developments of engines and aircraft to infrastructural improvements such as the implementation of the SES, which could cut aircraft emissions over Europe.

• Continue dissemination of best practices (chapter 4) in a harmonised progressive way, following the ICAO Balanced Approach.

• Foster the dialog in the form of a pan-European cross industry platform for aviation sustainability (including ATM) for ongoing and future research efforts. Political commitment will be required to facilitate this, in particular in terms of consolidating all ATM stakeholders involved in environmental sustainability issues.

Continuous improvement with different levels of implementation will be the way for the Air Transport Industry to show its commitment to the long-term solution of environmental issues. In this context, a concerted effort in collaborative management amongst all stakeholders is needed. A key aspect of the agreement will be the establishment of the definition of sustainability.

The success of applying the above-mentioned principles depends on the adherence of each ATM stakeholder to the collaborative commitments on sustainability. Otherwise additional regulation and constraints to growth or even reduction in capacity may be the consequence.

69 - Please refer to the environment task (Task 1.1.4) and the short-term improvement (Task 3.2) task deliverables

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5.2.2 The Security Aspects of ATM The harmonisation of a pan-European security framework based on the EC Regulation 2096/2005 (the Common Requirements represent the first piece of European Regulation that places formal security requirements on the ATM System), as well as ICAO and other international standards will set up the regulatory framework of the ATM security.

Improvement of the ATM Security in the future European ATM System will be achieved through: • Systematic consideration of the collaborative support of the ATM System to other stakeholders and relevant civil and military authorities.

• Generalisation of the use of agreed Information and Communication Technology (ICT) security components in the ATM System design • Recognition of internationally elaborated standards (e.g. ISO 17799 or COBIT) for Security Management and Audit activities • Development and use of agreed best practices for software development/maintenance /support (e.g. EUROCAE WG 72) • Physical protection of the infrastructure

The future European ATM System shall provide an essential role in the support to National Governmental Authorities (NGA) in the areas of aviation security in general, airspace as well as onboard and ground security.

The security status of the "Self Protection of the ATM System" within each member state shall be evaluated and an accreditation of ICT security facilities must be established. As a consequence the following general principles have to be considered: • "Balance openness and suspicion" and "Consider the threat spectrum" require a continuous assessment process of the ATM System with respect to the continuous evolution of threats.

• "Consider Interdependency in Security", "Security responsibility is universal" and "Build on international standardizations" require the ATM System to have an integrated, interconnected, joint and harmonized security treatment by means, processes, regulations, etc.

• "Security regulation is subject to subsidiarity" requires refined and strengthened regulations based on common objectives.

• "Maintain Security throughout the ATM System lifecycle" as well as the "Consider Security as a part of good management" require an appropriate priority as well as effective incorporation of ATM security within the overall ATM System management process (performance, quality assurance, etc).

5.3 The Performance Framework The way forward for achieving the ATM performance framework vision described in chapter 2 can be summarised as follows: • The SESAR Definition Phase will continue the different steps of the analytical approach to the ATM performance framework (section 3.2.3).

• The long-term (2020) design targets are going to be achieved in a progressive manner, starting from today’s actual performance levels (taking into account baseline performance from the PRU as appropriate) via short and medium term intermediate targets.

• The ATM Master Plan will identify all necessary actors, processes, tools and mechanisms into the future European ATM System, so that it is actually able to operate in a performance based fashion at strategic, pre-tactical and tactical planning horizons.

This includes the capabilities to properly regulate, plan, deliver, measure, review and improve performance.

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• The next step will be to further develop the current collection of performance data to meet the SESAR performance framework expectations. All ATM Stakeholders must be involved in this development. In that respect, the current initiative supporting military performance data collection should be expanded to support the stakeholders currently less involved in this process.

The future Performance Review Mandate (section 3.2.2.2) will give a regulatory framework to this activity.

Some performance areas are less mature in applying a performance based approach and performance measurement culture than others (in particular the non operational KPAs). The performance objectives, indicators and targets should then be further developed.

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5.4 The ATM Business Management Framework This section describes some initial thoughts, to be further developed, for the establishment of the ATM Business Management Framework described in chapter 2.

The way ahead for the Business Management Framework is supported by a re-structuring of ATM service provision by the ANSP industry, together with: • Empowerment to change and adopt new cross-border approaches can build on current FAB initiatives. Neighbouring ANSPs are in the process of establishing the feasibility and benefits of enhanced co-operation in a number of cross-border areas. It is likely that FABs will initially take the form of operational arrangements, but this could lead to a deeper integration of ANSPs and ultimately to the formation of “service mergers” where effectively one organisational entity delivers ATS across more than one country.

• Industry re-structuring of CNS operations is likely to evolve from emerging initiatives. Current, mainly technology-driven, initiatives like satellite navigation services via Galileo and panEuropean ground-ground network services will provide an initial experience of cross-border regional service delivery to the European ATM System.

• ANSP’s are intending to improve cost-effectiveness by collaborating on ATM System development (See examples in section 4.5).

ATM Performance Partnership It is evident from the early SESAR work-packages that there is a significant diversity of opinion on most matters among the ATM community both within and between the different stakeholder groups. This is a significant risk to the achievement of an ATM System that delivers performance according to expectations. This risk needs to be mitigated. The first mitigation step is to agree on a common understanding of the network operating vision and the choices that the ATM community needs to make. This applies certainly to the medium term, but possibly even to the longer term.

The SESAR initiative and the proposed performance framework is an initial step to this partnership. Other initiatives of this kind include the NATS Operational Performance Agreement, which provides a forum for establishing and agreeing seasonal performance expectations based on a shared analysis of airspace demand and capacity information, which often initiate operational changes to better accommodate Airspace User requirements. It also acts as a general forum for discussion of general performance aspects.

Because it is based on extensive local operational knowledge, the model may not be applicable on a region-wide basis, e.g. presided over by a central “network manager”. However, it may be possible to extend the scope to cover FABs or a number of FABs.

All these initiatives have the potential to forge closer relationships between ANSPs, leading to further developments on a commercial and opportunity basis.

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5.5 The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework This section provides guidelines for the transition to the institutional and regulatory framework presented in chapter 2.

The results of the EC high-level group, expected by summer 2007, will be used to further detail proposals for the simplification of the organisation and management framework.

5.5.1 The ATM Institutional Framework The Joint Undertaking The first step towards the management of the SESAR implementation will be the SESAR JU. Based on the SESAR Consortium analysis of the EC regulation, the JU is considered a suitable initial structure capable of maintaining the ATM Master Plan, managing the R&D programme of technical activities as defined in the ATM Master Plan70 and monitoring its deployment for the period until the creation of the new overarching governance structure.

A pre-requisite for successful implementation of the ATM Master Plan is a real and enduring commitment from Member States at the highest political level71 throughout the full period until 2020.The adoption of the ATM Master Plan by the Transport Council72 is expected to play a major role in securing the necessary commitment.

Recommendations are proposed in order to: • Optimise the performance and effectiveness of the JU when carrying out its duties.

• Ensure that membership, and participation of the Air Transport Industry in the JU is genuine and meaningful.

Until implementation of an “overarching structure” which manages all elements of the ATM Master Plan, including deployment, activities that do not fall within the scope of the JU73 will continue to be managed by existing mechanisms74 but carefully followed by the JU. In coherence with the draft regulation the JU would be responsible for the following processes: • • • •

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Supervise/steer the Implementation Phase75.

Update ATM Master Plan.

Manage/initiate the ATM Master Plan execution.

Direct and manage the execution and maintenance of the R&D aspects of the ATM Master Plan, including validation, demonstration and trials. The JU delivers research results, specifications, algorithms and guidance that can be exploited by the global community. The JU may coordinate the development and deployment of “Common Components”. The details of these deliverables will be detailed and refined during D3 to D6. This

is undertaken by JU members as in-kind contribution or contracted to organisations in/outside the JU. Within the JU, it is proposed that the EUROCONTROL Organisation mandated to represent its Member States who are not within the EU and is held responsible for addressing civil-military coordination.

The JU will interface with and provide inputs to the following external processes: • Regulatory/legislative activities, undertaken by Community/ States supported by EUROCONTROL and EASA. Within the scope of the ATM Master Plan, any recommendations regarding rulemaking will be provided to the appropriate external bodies.

• Deployment is monitored by the JU, but carried out by individual stakeholders (e.g. ANSPs, airspace users and airport operators, supported by the Supply Industry and EUROCONTROL). For example it is possible that the schedule and/or content of a short-term project could have an impact on the longer-term evolution of the system.

Key findings and recommendations in respect of the JU are: • There should be clear lines of separation between management and supervision. The role of the Administrative Board is to oversee and the role of the Executive Director to manage. The Executive Director should meet industry expectations in terms of proven leadership and management experience.

• Part of the R&D management activity should be devoted to the evaluation and possible integration of non-JU R&D in such a way that research external to European-ATM76 can be exploited and be part of the normal process of ATM Master Plan maintenance.

• In order to assure global commonality and interoperability, the JU should establish a close liaison with the (JPDO) Joint Planning and Development Office and other relevant worldwide programmes.

• IPR developed and fully funded within the JU should be generally freely available for exploitation within the context of the SESAR implementation .

• Contractors bringing background IPR to the JU must accept that once validated these IPRs may form part of a deliverable. It is thus essential that future access rights to these background IPRs, are negotiated prior to bringing them to the JU. • It is recommended that In Kind Delivery (IKD) donated by Members of the JU will be in the form of management and execution of WPs (work packages). IKD in the form of granted access rights to IPRs should be fully aligned with the ATM Master Plan, and should brings significant advantages as identified using a common business methodology.

70 - R&D and validation including simulations, live trials/demonstration.

71 - Ideally, this should include the transport ministers and respective finance ministers where necessary.

72 - European Union Council of Transport Ministers 73 - E.g. deployment of short-term projects.

74 - E.g. EUROCONTROL 75 - The JU is responsible for the SESAR Development Phase and monitoring of the SESAR Deployment Phase 76 - As some simple examples, generic network modelling techniques, congestion /flow theories, human factors/psychology, non-European ATM research.

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5.5.2 The Regulatory Framework of ATM Developments This section gives some general trends and options for the development of the future regulatory ATM framework.

There is a trend to outsource technical tasks of the Commission through Joint Undertakings, Community Agencies and/or regulatory entities or organisations. Despite the principle of subsidiarity77, purely national legislation in matters that are technically complex might lead to an unnecessary fragmentation of the internal market. At Community level, it might be decided to establish regulatory or executive agencies to support a given policy.

For the ATM framework the above might mean that other relevant entities or organisations outside the EU framework would come "under the EU umbrella" or be otherwise associated with the EU. In the next years, it has to be discussed how this can be done in detail, recalling that several options exist: • Full integration into the Commission, which could mean the creation of a new directorate-general comparable to the joint Research Centre.

• Establishment of an executive Commission agency.

• Participation by the Community in organisations with regulatory or related functions.

• Further reflection of the respective liabilities of States and corporatised / privatised ANSPs. • Drafting of proposals on the allocation of liabilities in cross-border provision of ANS (particularly in an environment where ANSPs are separated from the State); possible proposal for harmonized legislation/regulation in this domain at European level.

• Assess the feasibility of the creation of regional oversight and implementation functions to address and monitor responsibilities in multi-State FABs and to respond to the shortcomings presently found in many States related to the adequate provision of oversight functions at the national level.

• Proposals for actions to be taken at European level for implementation of just culture; examination of the feasibility of the creation of a European independent body to collect reports and hold a repository of European national criminal legislation and proceedings, in relation to aviation.

• Examination of the feasibility of a joint action at European level in the ATM insurance domain.

Competition Whilst it is noted that the JU is being established and will respect competition rules, an examination of the existing laws on EU competition and the rules regarding State Aid has been carried out.

This provides indications that whenever it is contemplated to setup other undertakings (particularly those which compete) working together to conduct research or to design or to produce systems or equipment, the implications for competition and the relevant competition law principles should be carefully considered.

The choice of the option depends on political considerations together with the legal framework, e.g. it might be difficult to create a Commission agency in a matter where the competence of the Commission is limited, at this stage, but also on programmatic considerations. It is obvious that the options would correspond to different degrees of independence regarding the fulfilment of the missions of the intergovernmental organisations.

Responsibility and Liability As already stated in D1 there is increasing awareness across Europe that there are some major responsibility and liability issues on the future development of ATM and, in particular, for the creation and management of FABs in cross-border situations, and there are vast differences between national approaches (in both civil and criminal law). The recent (14-15 November 2006) legal workshop on the subject of responsibilities and liabilities in the ATM domain The workshop concluded with the following key areas for attention and development:

77 - This principle is enshrined in Article 5 (2) of the EC Treaty, which states that the Community shall take action "only if and in so far as the objectives of the proposed action cannot be sufficiently achieved by the Member States and can therefore, by reason of the scale or effects of the proposed action, be better achieved by the Community".

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5.5 The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework (continued) 5.5.3 The Safety Legislative/Regulatory Framework of ATM The basic principles of safety regulation are outlined in chapter 2.

The first step to achieve the 2020 vision should be to expedite the establishment of the framework for the future for ATM safety regulation accompanied by a transition strategy. The responsibilities of each organisation must be clear and there should be no overlap or duplication of roles. Each of the organisations should co-ordinate its activities with all of the others in order to ensure an efficient, global safety regulatory framework. In particular relationship between National regulatory bodies and European regulatory bodies need to be worked out in practice and the process of separating regulation from service delivery should be completed. The relationship between the ATM safety regulatory arrangements in the EC, EUROCONTROL, ECAC and adjoining States should be clarified.

The objective should be a safety regulatory framework that can provide the required level of assurance for the safety of ATM while ensuring effective coordination with the safety regulatory arrangements for other parts of the air transport industry. This does not necessarily mean a single air transport safety regulator for Europe as the differing requirements of different segments of the industry (including the Military) may be better served by individual arrangements.

The details of the SESAR implementation programme and the future operational concept will need to be taken into account before finalising the future institutional framework for ATM safety regulation. Based upon the future ATM operational concept and architecture (e.g., level of air and ground integration), there will be a need to address ATM certification evolution.

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However, in order to ensure a harmonised set of safety regulatory rules, it is likely that the majority of the rule making function will be transferred from national institutions to European/Global institutions. The institutional arrangements for the oversight function of safety regulation will need to change as the ATM function changes (e.g. development of FABs) in order to avoid unnecessary duplication or overlap in safety regulation. As long as significant elements of the ATM operation are based on ground-based infrastructure, there will remain a need for some national regulatory oversight.

However, these national arrangements will have to be subject to co-ordination at the European level to ensure consistent enforcement of European ATM safety rules.

The process of review and alignment of National ATM Safety Regulatory requirements should also be started. It would require a thorough assessment of the feasibility of the creation of regional oversight and implementation functions to address and monitor responsibilities in multi-State FABs This process should furthermore be aligned with the ICAO requirements that are most relevant to ATM safety. The mechanisms for agreeing a common European position on future ICAO requirements should be set up with high priority.

The (EC, EUROCONTROL) Member States should establish an enhanced cooperation between their armed forces in regulatory and safety-regulatory matters, leading to harmonisation/standardisation of military rules/regulations relevant to SES, to ensure appropriate civil-military co-ordination and interoperability between OAT and GAT.

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5.6 Subjects of Common Interest 5.6.1 The ATM Standardisation Process

5.6.2 The ATM Financing Aspects

The transition toward the vision of the standardisation process described in chapter 2 is building upon the current standardisation activities. In line with the SES legislation, the standardisation programme to support the future SES Implementing Rules has been established with European Standards Organisations (CEN/CENELEC/ETSI) in co-operation with EUROCAE for technical standards and with EUROCONTROL for operational standards.

This section describes principles to be applied to the transition toward the future economic environment of the ATM System in 2020.

The standardisation needs for the ATM Master Plan will be identified and a baseline of standardisation activities will be consolidated taking into account the catalogue of the existing standardisation activities within Europe and worldwide.

The JU is expected to fulfil the Standardisation Process Management function and through this overview, plan and support the standardisation functions. A close coordination with the Air Traffic Management Standardisation Coordination Group should be established.

The way forward to the vision of the financing and funding of the future ATM System will depend upon the financing alliances of Industry participants. A PPP-model, which may influence the later implementation environments for financing, is preferred to create industry venture structures.

Assumed Investment Volume The exact future investment volume (Table 5.1) is not yet available but reference is made to estimates, which are considered to be reasonable at this moment in time. According to different sources78 the investment volume is estimated to be up to €22Bn with a share of 60% on board (avionics) and 40% on ground (ATM equipment mainly at ANSPs). The sum of €22Bn fits the estimates of the so-called ‘base case’ (without SESAR cost and benefits) developed in the Steer Davies Gleave study. According to this study the investment volume could be up to €6Bn higher (Steer Davies Gleave, scenario 1) or up to €3Bn lower (Steer Davies Gleave, scenario 2).

Table 5.1 Additional costs per segment and overall costs for strategic Performance Periods Grouping of operational improvements (as defined in ROAD, September 2001)

Period 1 Period 2 2001-2004 2005-2007

Period 3 Period 4 2008-2011 2012-2020

Additional costs in M Euro per segment

TOTAL

1 - Airspace Organisation and Management

570

3,194

2,988

401

7,152

2 - Flow and Capacity Management

35

15

35

50

135

3 - En-route and TMA ATC

1,713

1,409

1,173

8,613

12,908

4 - Airport ATC

34

52

48

27

160

5 - Human Resources

16

12

16

28

72

6 - Flow and Capacity Management

0

151

1

1,502

1,653

7 - Aeronautical Information Management Total over every period Average additional costs per year & per period

29

33

56

56

174

2,396

4,865

4,316

10,677

22,254

599

1,622

1,079

1,186

1,113

78 - Eurocontrol Strategic Performance Framework, Version 2, 30 November 2002. Steer Davies Gleave study, 24 June 2005.

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5.6 Subjects of Common Interest (continued) General assumptions on the way forward:

Revenues from Users Charges (incl. terminal charges)

• Aircraft, fitted with new ATM Master Plan equipment will be (remain) compliant with existing ATM Systems (allowing aircraft to fly to areas not equipped with ATM Master Plan equipment) and also comply with any new safety standards.

• A growing trend in other sectors (e.g. in the US ATM79 System) is the notion of supply and operate, where equipment suppliers offset the provision of equipment at marginal prices through the receipt of operating revenues. This so-called “outsourcing” of services, which is mostly applicable to the provision of the technical support services, but can bring additional complexity to issues of regulation, service guarantees, liabilities and operating relationships. Such arrangements are likely to be part of future considerations as to how some services will be provided in the future.

• A major part of the capital investment (around €9.5Bn80) will consist of ATM equipment fitted to new aircraft; our base assumption is that the cost of avionics fitted to new aircraft will not deter airspace users from investment.

• A significant part of the capital investment (around €3.5Bn81) will consist of ATM equipment that needs to be retrofitted to existing aircraft; incentives may be needed for timely equipage.

• A major part of the capital investment (around €9Bn82) will consist of ATM equipment required by ANSPs (including a small portion of airport operators providing ANSP services).

• The current investment volume of ANSPs of about €1Bn/year (source: PRU) will be allocated to a large extent to the ATM Master Plan implementation.

• ATM Master Plan ATM equipment fitted to new aircraft will be probably funded in the same way as the aircraft themselves (e.g. outright purchase or leasing by the airspace users).

• EUROCONTROL is not able to give any financial guarantee; it might however work on a contractual base to support the financing schemes.

To support the transition, a pre-financing scheme fully capital market driven has been identified and needs further analysis. It does not increase user charges (en-route or terminal navigation charges) as it postpones a portion of repayments into later phases once the cost reduction effects have become effective in the unit rate funding mechanism. This principle may apply to all scenarios defined in chapter 2, while scenarios will differ in the structure and asset situation. This mechanism is shown in figure 5.1 where the difference between the political target (50% cost with regards to today = blue line) and a newly proposed cost (same end-target but intermediate slightly higher cost = green line) is used for SESAR implementation.

It is recommended to introduce the pre-financing scheme through a programme-to-programme approach, which targets at an accelerated implementation rate, avoiding burdening current unit rates before cost reduction effects become effective.

€ 16,5bn

To be used for ATM service provision and interest/capital payments for SESAR

€ 10bn +

€ 8bn SESAR R&D Period

Total Cost Reductions Effects As detailed in EC communications Proposed cost to users Cost of users if SESAR is not pursued

Traffic increase 5%/year

2006

2013

YEARS

2020-2030

Figure 5.1 Expected effects by pre-financing peak investments and levelling of burden to user charge (built with fictitious figures) 79 - FAA ADS-B programme 80 - See other footnotes: €22 Bn x 60% x (100% minus 25-30%) 81 - IATA estimation of 25-30% of total replacement costs of 60% of €22 Bn 82 - According to Steer Davis Gleave estimated proportion of ground based / airside investment 40 / 60% = €22 Bn x 40% December 2006

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The Performance Target SESAR Definition Phase - Milestone Deliverable 2

5.7 The Future Architecture of ATM This section describes high-level principles to be applied to the architecture of the future ATM System. These principles will be developed with the architecture supporting the SESAR operational concept in Milestone Deliverable 3. Although the emphasis is solely on the technical aspects of the architecture in this section, it is recognised that there cannot be a successful ATM design without considering all the aspects of ATM (i.e. human, procedures and equipment).

5.7.1 Principles for the Future ATM Architecture There is a consensus among stakeholders that the SESAR vision can only be achieved by a more integrated ATM architecture, considering the integration of all segments of ATM: aircraft, ATC, AOC, etc.

The architecture integration requires more collaborative work in the upfront System Engineering phase. In this phase, the interfaces are defined with respect to the required and adapted interoperability concept83 including the cases of exceptional events, which constitute the major cause of loss of capacity. The latest System Engineering tools, methodologies, and approaches currently promoted will be investigated and the ones identified as the most appropriate to the ATM architecture context will be selected.

R&D activities to apply these tools / methodologies in the ATM context will be identified where appropriate.

The results of this work shall then be standardized and the associated means of compliance for the various CNS/ATM stakeholders shall be defined and monitored in the future.

More scalable architectures allow smooth transitions when integrating evolutions or increasing the capacity and avoid big bang approaches which represent a much higher cost and risk. Also these architectures shall be adaptable architectures i.e. able to deliver variable levels of services taking into account the different sizes of systems with various service needs. Gradual transitions require that the new architectures have the capability to modify, add or remove functions at lowest cost (fulfilling also the objective of an improved maintainability).

The design quality of the ATM System architecture is recognized today as the most important factor to protect stakeholders’ investments in time, capital, and expertise. The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is an approach that separates business and application logic from the underlying platform technology. It thus enables existing standards to be realized quickly and cheaply on new technologies instead of being reinvented from scratch. It is anticipated that this approach fits well into a future common architecture for ATM. OATA and EUROCAE Working Groups (WG61, WG69) have applied this approach, which proved to be successful and its use should be considered in the future.

5.7.2 Safety Approach to the SESAR Architecture Activities A screening technique will be applied to the SESAR Definition Phase architecture activities making use of a list of established basic principles and key requirements for Safety Regulation, Safety Management and Safety Performance. It is expected that the Safety Screening reveals safety related requirements that shall be considered when defining/modifying the ATM/CNS architecture. The appropriate safety assessment and mitigation methods will then be applied during the SESAR Development Phase.

5.7.3 Performance Requirements Some key quality of service (QoS) characteristics were selected to support the definition of concrete ATM/CNS architecture performance measurement criteria: Safety, Reliability, Integrity, Latency, Capacity and Accuracy. The performance requirements fixed in D2 shall be derived and traced to make sure the targeted CNS/ATM architecture can meet the targeted performance. Due to the need to cater for threats, Security characteristics as they are described in the current standards (ISO 13236, OMG): Confidentiality, Authenticity, Protection and Access control will have to be considered for the building of the new architectures.

It is expected that some current ATM System functions will remain in the future ATM System, with possible slight evolutions, to harmonize these functions throughout Europe84.

83 - High level of interoperability with airspace users having divergent capabilities (e.g. military) should be accommodated less with exemption policies and more with interoperable solutions.

84 - For more information, please refer to the task 2.4.3/D2 deliverable.

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5.8 The Role of the Human in ATM The future European ATM will only be able to achieve its long-term operational targets and strengthen its economic value chain through the capabilities and performance of its people. The human contributes to the ATM System performances at the individual, team and organisational level, as well as in the interaction with automated support systems.

Human & System

Teams & Communication

Procedures, Roles and Responsibilities

The changes to the ATM System described in section 2.4.2 will affect the future working environment of more than 70.000 operational staff in total, (amongst them about 17.000 Air Traffic Controllers, 35.000 cockpit crew members and flight engineers and 15000 CNS/ATM engineers and technical personnel).

Working environment

Organisation Staffing

Training and Development

F i g u r e 5 - 2 T h e E U R O C O N T R O L / C A AT S - H F - c a s e p i e The human contribution to the 11 KPA of ATM has been analysed through the six different Human Performance Areas identified in the EUROCONTROL/CAATS-HF case pie (as shown in figure 5-2)85.

it is considered that it will be increasingly difficult to employ highly qualified staff suitable for operational roles. Further, it is vital to keep the jobs in ATM sufficiently attractive.

Figure 5.3 identifies the influence of the different Human Performance Areas on the ICAO KPAs. Particularly KPAs such as safety, capacity, efficiency, flexibility, interoperability and participation are highly dependant on an advanced management of the Human in ATM.

The way forward for the role of the human in ATM in 2020 is described in the following sections: a Social Factors and Change Management b Human Factors c Recruitment, Training, Competence and Staffing

85 - In the current analysis the interactions of KPAs and HF categories were addressed separately without considering trade-offs between them, for example between safety and efficiency. The following table provides a first overview of how the six HF categories contribute to the 11 KPAs. December 2006

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Human roles KPA

Human & System

Procedures, Working Organisation Training & Teams & Roles & Communication environment a Staffing Development Responsibilities

Safety Capacity Efficiency Flexibility Interoperability Security Cost Effectiveness

indirect

indirect

indirect

indirect

Environmental Sustainability Access/Equity Participation Predictability Level of contribution

High

Moderate

Low

F i g u r e 5 . 3 T h e H u m a n P e r f o r m a n c e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e 1 1 I C A O K PA s

5.8.1 Social Factors and Change Management This section describes the way forward to the Social Dialogue as a system introduced in section 2.4.2.6.

The European Sectorial Social Dialogue Committee for Civil Aviation is a first promising step to have a European social dialogue. All Social Partners wishing to participate are present on an equal basis. They could expand the social dialogue to cover more social provisions by way of collective agreements if social partners (at European level) so desire (cf. Art 139 of the EC Treaty) on social provisions covered by Article 137 of the EC Treaty.

Social Partners in the Social Dialogue ATM Working Group of this committee developed jointly a report concentrating on Social aspects in the establishment of FABs. The subjects discussed in

this Working Group could be expanded in the SES or in the SESAR context.

As this Sub-Working Group is focussed on ATM employees, adhoc coordination with the other social partners of Civil Aviation in the Committee for Civil Aviation must be organised on dedicated subjects (e.g. Just Culture, ATM air-ground integration issues).

Processes, principles and structures for Social Dialogue exist but are not implemented at all levels (European, national and local) and for all affected employees. Social Partners at all levels should reach a better understanding, co-operation, co-ordination and awareness of the Social Dialogue structure and process and its positive impacts on performance.

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A legislated Social Dialogue structure exists in some Member States (i.e. Sweden, Denmark, France), which can provide examples of best practices. Social Partners should establish national Social Dialogue agreements and consultation arrangements for the Social Dialogue process at national and local levels – in case it does not exist - in line with the existing European Civil Aviation Sectorial Social Dialogue Committee activities. This should be considered in addition to existing legislation on informing and consulting employees. In other States (e.g. Sweden) it is even compulsory to analyse related physical, psychological and social risks when a change is introduced in a working environment.

These risks could be identified and addressed in the local Social Dialogue as one way of addressing social and other impacts of change that affect employees and help to find solutions and mitigating actions for them.

Transferability and mobility of European civil aviation staff exists in theory but is limited due to non-harmonisation of national social security, income tax and pension systems and issues on the portability of pension rights and / or local rules. These are blocking factors to mobility in addition to individual willingness and capability of staff to move. An effective framework for transferability and mobility of staff at all levels is required. The respective parties, Social Partners included, should agree on effective means to alleviate existing barriers for transferability and mobility of staff.

An appropriate change and transition leadership and management approach is required to identify and manage change issues and risks at an early stage and with the participations and involvement of social partners and affected employees.

5.8.2 Human Factors The objective of Human Factors is to find an optimal trade-off and interaction between automation and human tasks whilst respecting human limitations and exploiting the unique human capabilities and skills in the best possible way in order to ensure safe and efficient ATM operations at all times.

By 2020 the full integration of Human Factors in ATM needs to be established as follows: • Human Factors best practices (HF processes, methods and tools) are translated into regulation (e.g. EU Directives, ESARRs) and/or international standards (e.g. ISO 13407 – Human Centred Design Processes for Interactive Systems) whenever necessary and appropriate.

• Existing ICAO, EUROCONTROL and national human factors processes, methods and tools are fully mandated and deployed.

• The human factors practices in the air and on the ground are better aligned and whenever necessary integrated in the frame of increasing air-ground integration.

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• These human factors practices must also be extended in a balanced way to other safety critical jobs and workforces such as CNS/ATM technical staff, flight dispatchers, cabin crew, airport staff, airport vehicle drivers, maintenance staff, security staff and aeronautical weather services, etc. All these people make a major contribution to the safety chain.

• A framework for human performance improvements within accepted organisational structures will be put in place. This includes the individual, group and organisational levels, as well as metrics and measurements, of the relevant human contributions and interactions with automated systems both in the air and on the ground.

• Evolving human factors requirements are identified as necessary prerequisites to launch relevant R&D activities (e.g. development of human performance metrics to determine the boundaries of human performance).

Way forward The implementation of HF processes, methods and tools in European ATM has started successfully in some ANSPs but is far from being complete. The 2005 figures for the European Convergence and Implementation Programme (ECIP) reveal that the current average rate of local implementation of ATM Human Factors tools and interventions has only reached 30-50% throughout the ECAC area within a five year time period (2000-2005).

The full implementation of the existing ICAO, EUROCONTROL and local human factors best practices (e.g. HF methods and tools) would significantly increase the human performance related benefits throughout European ATM. The following guidelines must be applied in each implementation step of the integration of human factors into all levels of ATM: • The entire Human Factors approach needs to become much more business and cost-benefit oriented to prove its role as one of the key business success factors in ATM. All this needs to be an essential element of the corporate culture in ATM and requires full support from senior management throughout the organisation down to the operational level.

• The enhanced safety culture - Just Culture – that regards failures and incidents must be considered as learning and improvement opportunities for Human Factors.

• HF practitioners must be allocated early and continuously to any ATM project to determine human factors issues and to proactively manage their resolution and related change processes (e.g. application of Human Factors Cases) through the lifecycle of the project.

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5.8.3 Recruitment, Training, Competence and Staffing Recruitment, Training, Competence Verification and Staffing aims at identifying, developing and maintaining the appropriate human operational competence for the provision of safe ATM services. It will directly support the future ATM System by: 1) Enhanced staffing and rostering processes allowing for an effective and reliable prediction of required manpower as well as for the flexible adaptation of staffing to traffic demand and change processes. The first steps will be the sharing and application of available guidance material and methods for manpower planning in air and ground (e.g. from EUROCONTROL and ANSP best practice). However, strict regulations for staffing or fixed staffing numbers are not considered feasible, as aviation will continue to be influenced by rapid market changes, national law and individual decisions.

2) Harmonization of the operational competence through comparable minimum competence standards enhancing safety and efficiency of European ATM. It enables the mobility of workforce supporting free movement of labour and compensation of temporary local staff shortage and reduces the amount of conversion training. The harmonisation of the operational concepts and the ATM Systems will ease the harmonisation of operational competence and shared training developments.

The operational competence harmonization is mainly lacking for the ground ATM staff due to differences in individual interpretation and implementation of the regulations in place (ESARR 5, EC Directive on a common ATCO License with EATM support material). 36% of the ECAC states reported full implementation of the European ATCO Licensing scheme (ECIP 2005).

especially in degraded mode operations. Enhanced interdisciplinary training (in air and ground) to support mutual understanding shall be included to improve safety.

4) Training will support the development and implementation of new systems and procedures as an integral part of the change management process. The impacts on operational competence are systematically analysed at an early stage through exchanges between Human Factors, concept/system and training experts.

Inappropriate system upgrade training is a transition risk. The design of the training (as well as the transition activities) must consider individual specifics (e.g. related to age, culture, education, and experience; necessity to de-learn well established related working habits). New roles and responsibilities must be trainable in a reasonable range of effort.

Sufficient staffing must be continuously allocated to system development and upgrade/ continuation training, ensuring a successful transition.

5) Improved efficiency of the management of operational competence: The different steps of the recruitment, training, verification of competence and manpower planning of the operational ATM staff lack effectiveness as they are too fragmented. A systematic linking of all elements in the process in form of a closed loop will be put in place (see Figure 5.4). Management and investment decisions shall be based on operational needs and on systematic cost benefit analyses. This will result in an optimal balancing of investment in the various steps of recruitment and training.

Recruiting Selection

Job marketing

Therefore the first steps to this harmonisation are: • Europe-wide consistent implementation of the existing regulations and standards. • Establishment and application of rules concerning comparable training (objectives, contents, methods, strategies and training infrastructure) and comparable verification of operational competence of all ATM staff (including language proficiency and civil/military integration where applicable). • Implementation and upgrade of existing guideline and support material on ATCO selection. They shall be adapted as appropriate for other categories of ATM staff.

The time span to implement changes in required competence regulations (min. 2-3 years) as well as for training development and provision (months or even years) must be addressed in the transition planning.

3) Regular and intense continuation training (with effective use of simulation) for operational and maintenance staff will be needed to maintain the operational competence in automated systems,

Institutional training

Operational training

Manpower planning

Verification of competence

Operational work Conversion training

Refresher/ continuation training

Figure 5.4 Closed loop process of generating and maintaining the appropriate quantitative and qualitative amount of operational c o m p e t e n c e i n AT M .

All the above-mentioned measures are part of the Change Management Process.

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6 List of references 1 Milestone Objective Plan D2: ATM Performance Targets MGT-0506-002-03-00

14 Task Deliverable: 1.7.3/D2 - Social factors

2 Milestone Deliverable D1: Air Transport Framework – The Current Situation - DLM-0602-001-03-00

15 Task Deliverable: 2.1.2/D2 - Define Strategic Objectives (Safety, Security, Capacity, Environment, Cost, World-wide Interoperability, etc.)

3 Task Deliverable: 1.1.1/D2 - Analysis of the Air Transport Value Chain

16 Task Deliverable: 2.4.3/D2 - Analysis of the various technical sub-systems/functions supporting the architecture

4 Task Deliverable: 1.1.2/D2 - Evaluation of ATM System within the Air Transport Value Chain

17 Task Deliverable: 2.6.1/D2 - Assess and propose improvement to standardisation process

5 Task Deliverable: 1.1.3/D2 - Security

18 Task Deliverable: 3.2.1/D2 - Identification of limits/Blocking points. For airspace environment

6 Task Deliverable: 1.1.4/D2 - Environment 7 Task Deliverable: 1.2.1/D2 - Identification of existing mechanisms and triggers for decision making 8 Task Deliverable: 1.3.1/D2 - Review existing financial mechanisms and identify investment needs for the whole programme

19 Task Deliverable: 3.2.2/D2 - Identification of limits/Blocking points. For airport environment 20 Task Deliverable: 4.1.1/D2 - Programme and Governance Rules 21 ICAO OCD – Doc 9854

9 Task Deliverable: 1.4.1/D2 - Review of existing tools and preparation of the CBA model

22 EUROCONTROL Strategic Performance Framework, Version 2, 30 November 2002

10 Task Deliverable: 1.5.1/D2 - Benchmarking of European and other relevant legislation and regulation

23 Performance Review Report 8 - 2004: PRR 8 24 Performance Review Report 2005: PRR 2005

11 Task Deliverable: 1.6.1/D2 - Study of safety regulatory framework

25 STATFOR 2004 Traffic Statistics

12 Task Deliverable: 1.7.1/D2 - Human factors impacts 13 Task Deliverable: 1.7.2/D2 - Recruitment, training and licensing

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7 List of abbreviations and terminology Abbreviations Abbreviation

Explanation

1090 ES

1090 Mode S Extended Squitter

4D

Four Dimensional

AMAN

Arrival Manager

A-CDM

Airport CDM

ACE

ATC Communications Environment

ADS-B

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast

AEA

Association of European Airlines

AECP

Aeronautical European Common Position

AIM

Aeronautical Information Management

AIS

Aeronautical Information Services

ANSP

Air Navigation Service Provider

AO

Aerodrome Operations

AOC

Airline Operational Communications

AOM

Airspace Organisation & Management

ARN V5,6

ATS Route Network – Version 5,6 (ECAC, EATMP)

ASD

ATM Service Delivery

A-SMGCS

Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems

AT

Air Transport

ATC

Air Traffic Control

ATD

Actual Time of Departure

ATFM

Air Traffic Flow Management

ATFCM

Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management

ATM

Air Traffic Management

ATMRPP

ICAO ATM Requirements and Performance Panel

ATMSCG

Air Traffic Management Standards Co-ordination Group

ATOT

Actual Take Off Time (CFMU)

AUO

Airspace User Operations

BA

Business Aviation

BAA

British Airport Authority

Bn

Billion

BT

Business Trajectory

CAATS

Cooperative Approach to Air Traffic Services

CAEP

ICAO Council's Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection

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Abbreviation

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Explanation

CASCADE

Co-operative ATS through Surveillance and Communication Applications Deployed in ECAC

CBA

Cost Benefit Analysis

CDA

continuous descent approach

CDM

Collaborative Decision Making

CEM

Collaborative Environmental Management

CEN

Committee for European Normalisation

CENELEC

Committee for European Normalisation in the Electrotechnical Field

CFIT

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

CFMU

Central Flow Management Unit

CHAIN

Controlled & Harmonised Aeronautical Information Network

CHAMP

Collaborative and Harmonised ATCO Manpower Training

CM

Conflict Management

CNS

Communications, Navigation & Surveillance

COBIT

Control Objectives for Information and related Technology

COFLIGHT

French/Italian/Swiss cooperative development of a new Flight Data Processing System

COOPANS

Purchasing Agreement between LFV (Sweden), Naviair (Denmark) and the Irish CAA

CroATMS

Croatian Air Traffic Management System

CTGO4

Challenge to growth, 2004

D1, D2, D3, D4, D5, D6

SESAR’s 6 Milestone Deliverables

DCB

Demand/Capacity Balancing

DMAN

Departure Manager

DMEAN

Dynamic Management of the European ATM Network

EAPPRI

European Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions

EASA

European Aviation Safety Authority

EATCHIP

European Air Traffic Control Harmonisation and Integration Programme

EATM

European Air Traffic Management

EATMP

European Air Traffic Management Programme

EBAA

European Business Aviation Association

EC

European Commission / European Community

ECAC

European Civil Aviation Conference

ECIP

European Convergence and Implementation Plan

ESARR

EUROCONTROL Safety Regulatory Requirement

ESP

European Safety Programme

ESRA

EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area

ETS

Emissions Trading Scheme

EU

European Union

EUROCAE

European Organisation for Civil Aviation Equipment

EUROCAE WG 72

European Organisation for Civil Aviation Equipment manufacturers Working Group 72

FAA

Federal Aviation Administration

FAB

Functional Airspace Block

FASTI

First ATC Support Tools Implementation Programme

FATMI

Finnish Air Traffic Management Integration

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Abbreviation

Explanation

FDP

Flight Data Processing

FDPS

Flight Data Processing System

FL

Flight Level

FLOPC

Local Flight Operational Performance Committee

FMS

Flight Management System

FUA

Flexible Use of Airspace

GA

General Aviation

GAT

General Air Traffic

GBAS

Ground Based Augmentation System

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GPU

Ground Power Unit

HF

Human Factors, High Frequency

IATA

International Air Transport Association

ICAO

International Civil Aviation Organisation

ICT

Information and Communication Technology

IFR

Instrument Flights Rules

IKD

In Kind Delivery

IMC

Instrument Meteorological Conditions

IOPA

International Council of Aircraft owners and Pilot Association

IPR

Intellectual Property Rights

ISO

International Standards Organisation

ISO 13407

Human Centred Design Processes for Interactive Systems

IT

Information Technology

ITU

International Telecommunications Union

JFADT

Joint Future Airspace Design Team

JPDO

Joint Planning and Development Office

JU

Joint Undertaking

KPA

Key Performance Area

LAMPS

Long Term ATCO Manpower Planning Simulation

LCIP

Local Convergence and Implementation Plan

Link2000+

(EUROCONTROL) LINK 2000+ Programme

LISATM

Lisbon Air Traffic Management

LTF

Long Term Traffic Forecast

M

Million

MATIAS

Magyar (Hungarian) Automated and Integrated Air Traffic Control System

MDA

Minimum Descent Altitude/ Model Driven Architecture

MET

Meteorological (Information Services)

Mode-S

Mode Select

MTOW

Maximum Take-Off Weight

MVPA

Mobile Virtual Path network Architecture

NATS

National Air Traffic Services (UK)

NEASCOG

NATO/EUROCONTROL ATM Security Coordination Group

N-FDPS

Maastricht UAC new Flight Data Processing System

NGA

Non Governmental Authorities

OAT

Operational Air Traffic

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Abbreviation

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Explanation

OCD

Operational Concept Document

P1-iTEC

German next generation FDP system

P1-VAFORIT

German new FDP system

PBTG

Performance Based Transition Guidelines

PHARE

Programme for Harmonised Air Traffic Management and Research in Europe

PMS

Performance Management Stages

PPP

Public Private Partnership

P-RNAV

Precision Area Navigation

PRU

Performance Review Unit

PRU

Performance Review Unit

QoS

Quality of Service

R&D

Research & Development

RNAV

Area Navigation

RNP

Required Navigation Performance

ROAD

Representation of Overall ATM Development

RPK

Revenue Passenger Kilometre

SACTA-iTEC

Sistema Automatizado de Control del Tráfico Aéreo (ES) (Spanish ATC system)

SES

Single European Sky

SESAR

Single European Sky ATM Research

SMAN

Surface Management

SMR

Surface Movement Radar

SWIM

System Wide Information Management

TMA

Terminal Manoeuvring Area

TS

Traffic Synchronisation

UAC

Upper Airspace Control Centre

UAV

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

UML

Unified Modelling Language

US

United States (of America)

VFR

Visual Flight Rules

VLJ

Very Light Jet

WP

Work Package

WRC

World Radio-Communications Conferences

XML

Extensible Markup Language

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Terminology This section provides definitions which explain how certain terminology is used (and intended to be understood) further in this document. Only those terms are included here which are not defined in the body of the document where they are used for the first time.

Business trajectory

A flight which is not part of a flight schedule. Typically the Business Trajectory is planned after the aircraft operator or individual users of the flight have identified a specific need.

A 4D trajectory which expresses the business intention of the user with or without constraints. It includes both ground and airborne segments of the aircraft operation (gate-to-gate) and is built from, and updated with, the most timely and accurate data available (AOC, FMS, etc.)

A business trajectory can exist in several states, being: Business Development Trajectory (BDT) – used for airspace user business planning and not shared outside the user organisation.

Shared Business Trajectory (SBT) – published business trajectory that is available for collaborative ATM planning purposes. The Shared Business Trajectory may or may not already contain constraints that the user has already taken into account in his business calculations. It represents the plan for optimum flight performance, assuming no other traffic is present.

Reference Business Trajectory (RBT) – which the airspace user agrees to fly and the ANSP agrees to facilitate (subject to separation provision). The Reference Business Trajectory contains all the applicable constraints and will be used as a reference by all relevant ATM partners during flight execution. The RBT can be considered as having 4 parts: The executed part (RBTX): represents the already flown part of the trajectory.

Current position (CP): the 3D position of the aircraft at a given time.

Authorised part (RBTA): represents those segments of the trajectory (including ground segments) that have been cleared by the ANSP or validated by the aircraft within a defined horizon.

Planned part (RBTP): segments from the limit of authorisation to trajectory end.

Trajectory

Flight progress event

The trajectory is the description of movement of an aircraft both in the air and on the ground including position, time, and at least via calculation, speed and acceleration. (ICAO)

A 4D trajectory milestone (such as off-blocks, take-off, landing, on-blocks) which is part of a business trajectory and which is relevant for performance measurement and management.

4D Trajectory

On-time

A set of consecutive segments linking waypoints and/or points computed by FMS (airborne) or by TP (ground) to build the vertical profile and the lateral transitions; each point defined by a longitude, a latitude, a level and a time.

lights whose actual time maximum 3 minutes early or late in relation to the Shared Business Trajectory (SBT) (=the airspace user’s business optimum). Such on-time flights are not included in the calculation of delay statistics.

Air transport system The global air transport system consists of a global airspace user segment (consisting of airspace user groups and their aircraft) and a global airspace system segment consisting of regional (like the European) airspace systems and ATM service provider groups.

Air Traffic Management System The ATM system is a part of the air transport system. It includes parts of the airspace user segment, and parts of the airspace system segment.

Scheduled flight A flight which is part of a flight schedule. Typically the Business Trajectory is planned first, so that a schedule is created which is offered as a product to the individual users of the flight (e.g. passengers, cargo).

Unscheduled flight

Normal fuel consumption Actual block-to-block fuel consumption maximum 2.5% more than foreseen in the Shared Business Trajectory (SBT) (=the airspace user’s business optimum).

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Normal flight duration Actual block-to-block duration maximum 3 minutes longer than foreseen in the Shared Business Trajectory (SBT) (=the airspace user’s business optimum).

Airport A

Airport B

Airport C

The scope of Gate-to-Gate Gate-to-Gate (GtG) GtG applies to an operational concept where the air traffic operations of the main ATM partners, Air Navigation Service providers, aircraft and airport operators are such that the successive planning and operational phases of their processes are managed and can be achieved in a seamless and coherent way.

Note: For ATM, or from a flight planning point of view, its scope extends from the first interaction of the flight with ATM (which for commercial flights may be up to 6 months ahead of the date of the flight), through the execution of the flight on its appointed day, to performance registration and the calculation of charges for the services received after it has taken place. For an airport or aircraft operator, it encompasses the management of turn around between flights. From a network point of view, it relates to the efficient and seamless handling of the interdependencies between the operations of the different partners involved in the use of an aircraft for air transportation services.

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8 List of figures and tables Fig.1-1

Outline of the future framework for the European ATM System

Fig.1-2

Relationship between Institutional/Regulatory, Business & Performance Frameworks Principal Relationships between Society, Air Transport Industry & ATM System

Fig.2-1

Fig.2-2

Outline of Principal Relationships with European ATM System

Fig.2-3

Effects of Airport Constraints on Growth Scenarios

Fig.2-4

Growth by Traffic Flows expected in the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA)

Fig.2-5

Principal functions of the European ATM System management framework

Fig.2-6

ATM System Operating in a constrained Air Transport Network

Fig.2-7

Basis of Future ATM Operational Performance Partnership

Fig.2-8

Social Dialogue as a System

Fig.2-9

Financing scenarios

Fig.3-3

Horizontal dimension of the performance framework

Fig.3-4

Grouping of KPAs

Fig.3-5

Performance impact model for environmental sustainability

Fig.5-1

Expected effects by pre-financing peak investments and levelling of burden to user charge (built with fictitious figures)

Fig.5-2

The EUROCONTROL/ CAATS-HF-case pie

Fig.5-3

The Human Performance contribution to the 11 ICAO KPAs

Fig.5-4

Closed loop process of generating and maintaining the appropriate quantitative and qualitative amount of operational competence in ATM

Table 2-1 Characterisation of Airspace Users Expectations Table 3-1 Performance Management Process Table 4-1 Scenarios for costs anns benefits derived from the implementation of A-SMGCS Table 4-2 Environmental benefits of Local Flights Operational Performance Committee at Gatwick Airport

Fig.2-10 Financing scenarios decision tree Fig.3-1

Performance-based Transition Approach

Fig.3-2

SESAR Two-Dimensional Performance Framework

Table 4-3 Assessment of the level of contribution of selected solutions to KPAs and their maturity Table 5-1 Additional costs per segment and overall costs for strategic Performance Periods

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Annexes ANNEX I - Solution Risks SESAR solution risks are defined as those risks which, if not appropriately mitigated, could prevent the SESAR ATM Master Plan from achieving its objectives. These risks are integrated into the project risk management process. This annex presents the

Risk & Assessment D1/R1 - Lack of a solution to break the capacity barrier

synthesis of the identified SESAR solution risks at Milestone 2. It includes updates in terms of risk assessment and mitigation actions with respect to those risks identified at Milestone 1 (prefixed D1).

Impact Probability High

Medium

Mitigation Action 1. Enhancing stakeholder involvement in the business decision processes through the applicable governance structure. ONGOING ATM Performance Partnership model.

2. Better direction and management of activities related to R&D, validation and operational trials.

ONGOING 3. Securing involvement of operational staff in the design and validation processes. OPEN 4. More efficient use of airspace in Europe by enhancing civil-military and military-military coordination and cooperation. MONITOR MIL INVOLVEMENT IN D2/D3 (ensuring MIL in Master Plan) 5. Review current funding models to give the right incentives to ANSPs, airport operators and airspace users. CLOSED by 1.3 outputs at vision level.

D1/R2 - Not possible to address the fragmentation issue with

High

Medium

respect to the cost effectiveness objectives

1. Enhance flight efficiency. ONGOING - T1.1.2 /D2 ATM vision and D3 SESAR Operational Concept 2. Establish a “network plan”.

MITIGATED by T1.1.2 /D2 ATM vision 3. Enhance real-time operational flexibility.

ONGOING - T1.1.2 /D2 ATM vision 4. Develop a framework for services and obligations to be agreed between ANSPs, airport operators and airspace users. ONGOING - T1.1.1/1.1.2 /D2 5. Identify specific short-term initiatives aiming at de-fragmentation. CLOSED by 3.2/D2 output

D1/R3 - Lack of an assessment of the scope and content of the Master Plan due to business planning & CBA modelling limitations

Medium

Low

1. Adapt the approach to business planning & the CBA model to the business structure and the stakeholder expectations. OPEN – agreed process WP3.3 will collect cost data; WP1.4 will analyse benefits; and WP2.3 will assess results.

2. Ensure business and stakeholder data quality pro vision. OPEN WP3.3

D1/R4 - Failure to address the enforcement of a common regulatory framework

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High

Medium

1. ONGOING - WP4.1/D2 output/d3 tasks

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Risk & Assessment D1/R5 - Lack of a clear governance structure (including leadership, political & decision making arrangements)

Impact Probability High

Medium

Mitigation Action 1. Establish clear governance structure with clear roles and responsibilities. ONGOING - WP4.1/D2 output/d3 tasks Eliminate fragmented decision making across national, European and organisational boundaries. WP1.2 D2 output 2. 2. Eliminate fragmented decision making across national, European and organisational boundaries.

WP1.2 D2 output

D1/R6 - Lack of credible ATM performance assessment and monitoring

Medium

Low

1. Implement a cultural paradigm change to the reporting of performance. CLOSED by 2.1.2 output 2. Establish an ATM performance framework and monitor it. CLOSED for ATM performance framework

by D2/2.1.2. ONGOING for monitoring.

D1/R7 - Lack of interoperability in a global context

Medium

Medium

1. Ensure that the future standardisation structure addresses the global interoperability aspects.

ONGOING via D2/WP2.6 output 2. Incorporate the global interoperability concerns in the interoperability KPA of the ATM performance framework. CLOSED by 2.1.2 output 3. Enhanced and interdependent approach with ICAO and USA authorities. ON GOING via SESAR communication plan.

D1/R8 - Lack of acceptance of the ATM Master Plan by all actors

High

High

1. Proactively manage the buy-in of the ATM Master Plan by all Stakeholders (at all levels) at each milestone. ONGOING – continuous activity 2. Use it as the basis for the social dialogue, taking into account in the future institutional framework.

ONGOING – specific actions depending on Stakeholder or Project Associate.

D1/R9 - Lack of standardised and modular systems to facilitate the transition

Medium

Low

1. Put in place a European ATM System design authority. CLOSED T1.1.2/WP2.4/WP4.1 output.

Further scope of WP1.2/D3 2. Proactively manage the scope and content of the standardisation process, ensuring the products will fit the architecture of the future ATM System.

CLOSED - close coordination established with EC implementation rule and community specification teams

D2/R1 – Rejection of initial high design targets stated in D2

High

Medium

1. Develop performance tutorial 2. Refinement of targets and objectives in D3 and D4.

D2/R2 - Vision and associated Performance Objectives and targets not fully understood by subsequent WPs.

High

Medium

1. Develop performance tutorial.

2. Strengthen D3&D4 performance assessment method.

3. Regular check of vision understanding by CIT

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ANNEX II - Specific process assessment in D2 Introduction

Consideration of Safety Management in D2

This annex collects the assessment of three specific process execution in D2 :

Assessment of activities

• The application of the SESAR Definition Phase safety management policy, referring to WP statements of work • The application of the SESAR Definition Phase environment management policy, referring to WP statements of work • The incremental production of a Sustainability Impact Assessment, referring to the Initial Sustainability Impact Assessment Screening template.

WP

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SoW reference section

In the following table, the safety management activities are assessed against the Statement of Work of the Work package.

In accordance to the D2 Milestone Objective Plan, safety is considered with respect to: • Vision of the Air Transport Industry in 2020, • Performance Targets for the ATM Concept • ‘Best practice’, ongoing activities and principles for the way forward Assessment

1.1

From the safety management standpoint, this work package will provide inputs regarding the role of safety in the Air Transport value chain, including the effect of accidents on the air transport industry and on the environment (3rd party risk).

T1.1.1 has characterised Safety from the viewpoint of societal expectations and economical sustainability T1.1.2 has developed further the ATM safety vision.

T1.1.3 has outlined commonalities and differences between safety and security issues.

T1.1.4 has indicated that environmental considerations shall never impair safety of Air Transport operations

1.2

This WP will provide input on how safety and the environmental aspect of sustainability are currently applied as decision-making drivers in ATM system deployment and how it should be used in the context of the SESAR programme

Safety aspects are considered in the analysis of past, current and possible decision-making processes.

In general, a Safety case is required at the same level as a security case, a Human factor case or an Environmental Impact Assessment

1.3

This Work Package will investigate if the safety and environmental viewpoints can be directly related to the financial scenarios for deploying the ATM system or if it subsumed by the general approach to ATM financing.

Safety is not identified as a separate topic

1.4

This Work Package will investigate how to integrate safety and environment into CBA if required for further decision making

Safety is addressed both in the cost model and the benefit model for CBA, with some further clarification needed

1.5

This work package will check if the proposed adjustments to the SES legislative and regulatory framework due to third countries benchmarking have an impact: • On the safety regulation framework addressed

by WP1.6 • On the environmental regulation framework addressed by Task 1.1.4

Safety regulation is fully covered by 1.6.

1.6

As explained in the [previous] sections of the WP1.6 SoW, this Work Package will address the regulatory aspects of safety throughout the whole PD phase of SESAR. It will clarify the link between safety and environment, especially regarding the “third-party risk” issue.

T1.6.1 has extensively covered the subject and fully satisfies the D2 MOP objectives Moreover, the co-ordination between WP1.6 and other WP dealing with regulatory aspects (such as WP1.2, 1.5, 2.6) has been carried out.

“Third-party risk” is to be further investigated.

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SoW reference section

Assessment

1.7

This work package will provide inputs regarding human factors related safety and environmental issues.

T1.7.1 has shown the high effect of human factors on safety T1.7.2 has explained the effect of recruitment, training, competence and manpower planning on the safety of ATM operation T1.7.3 has documented how safety is incorporated into the social dialogue and change management required by ATM evolution

2.1

This work package will integrate the safety and environment KPAs, performance objectives, KPIs and targets when applicable into the performance framework.

It will be responsible for eliciting the balance between the KPAs that contribute to sustainability and for ensuring that dependencies between these KPAs are considered when assigning performance objectives and targets.

T2.1.2 has established the performance framework on the basis of KPAs, including how to represent the Safety KPAs, which has been documented and analysed by EUROCONTROL. Objectives and Targets having an impact on the concept development in D3 have been discussed. Most of the objectives are related to proper management of safety issues, building on T1.6.1 activities.

One global target is agreed, while additional targets related to significant incidents are expected to become available from ongoing EUROCONTROL activities and will be used in D3.

2.4

This work package will take safety objectives into account for defining the architecture of the ATM system, leading to adequate component redundancy and mitigation means in the architecture design, notwithstanding the procedural and human-factors aspects.

This WP will populate the Safety Register [initiated by T2.2.2/D3].

T2.4.3 has considered the safety approach from 1.6 and the potential impact on the process of architecture design, mainly through use of screening techniques.

The need to incorporate Safety Nets in the architecture design has been recognised. The real impact will be in D3.

2.6

This work package will integrate the safety aspects of interoperability. Some interoperability requirements are likely to derive from safety objectives. Conversely, making systems interoperate is itself a cause of potential failures or hazards.

This WP will populate the Safety Register [initiated by T2.2.2/D3].

Safety has been considered in the standardisation process from the certification point of view.

The vision of the certification process involving European regulatory functions is described by T1.6.1

3.2

This work package will integrate safety and environmental objectives into the short term improvements

Specific short-term improvements have been identified to address Safety and Environmental aspects.

All initiatives have been evaluated against the associated KPA. Programmes identified in the short term improvements include producing a safety case.

4.1

This work package will provide the roles and responsibilities elements of the SESAR Implementation Phase for: • The Safety Management Plan • The environment-related activities

T4.1.1 has addressed the allocation of safety responsibilities into the future governance structure for both the JU period and beyond

Recommendation for subsequent SESAR Milestones In order to ensure that ATM system changes are as safe as possible, WP1.6 recommends applying a screening technique, starting from D3, which makes use of a list of established basic principles

and key requirements for Safety Regulation, Safety Management and Safety Performance. It is expected that the Safety Screening reveals safety related aspects that shall be considered when designing the ATM system in order to identify the safety actions to be populated in the SESAR ATM Master Plan.

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Consideration of Environment Management in D2

In accordance to the D2 Milestone Objective Plan, environment is considered with respect to:

Assessment of activities In the following table, the environment management activities are assessed against the Statement of Work of the Work package.

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• Vision of the Air Transport Industry in 2020; • Performance Targets for the ATM Concept; • ‘Best practice’, ongoing activities and principles for the way forward.

WP

SoW reference section

Assessment

1.1

From the environment management standpoint, this work package will provide significant inputs regarding the environmental aspects of the Air Transport value chain, through the specialist task 1.1.4.

T1.1.1 has characterised Environment from the viewpoint of societal expectations and economical sustainability T1.1.2 has outlined the impact of the environmental constraints on the future ATM System and the ATM role to mitigate the environmental impact of Air Transport T1.1.3 has not addressed the environmental aspects.

T1.1.4 has delivered a vision of how environmental sustainability can be facilitated by ATM, refining the environmental mitigation solutions ATM can provide including institutional aspects.

1.2

This WP will provide input on how safety and the environmental aspect of sustainability are currently applied as decision-making drivers in ATM system deployment and how it should be used in the context of the SESAR programme

Environmental aspects are considered in the analysis of past, current and possible decision-making processes.

Environmental Impact Assessment is required at the same level as safety case or security case.

1.3

This Work Package will investigate if the safety and environmental viewpoints can be directly related to the financial scenarios for deploying the ATM system or if it subsumed by the general approach to ATM financing.

No specific relationship is identified.

1.4

This Work Package will investigate how to integrate safety and environment into CBA if required for further decision making

Environment is considered in the CBA models, bearing in mind that cost models and benefit models are not mature at this stage

1.5

This work package will check if the proposed adjustments to the SES legislative and regulatory framework due to third countries benchmarking have an impact: • On the safety regulation framework addressed

by WP1.6 • On the environmental regulation framework addressed by Task 1.1.4

The subject of a legislative and regulatory framework for environment has been covered by T1.1.4.

WP1.5 and 4.1 have considered the proposed functions in the regulatory and governance structures

1.6

As explained in the [previous sections of the] WP1.6 SoW, this Work Package will address the regulatory aspects of safety throughout the whole PD phase of SESAR. It will clarify the link between safety and environment, especially regarding the “third-party risk” issue.

Basic principles for safety regulation have been written, which describe the relationship of other KPA’s to safety, including environment

1.7

This work package will provide inputs regarding human factors related safety and environmental issues.

T1.7.1 recognizes that human factors in ATM have a limited effect on environmental sustainability

2.1

This work package will integrate the safety T2.1.2 has established the performance framework on and environment KPAs, performance objectives, the basis of KPAs, including Environmental Sustainability KPIs and targets when applicable into the KPA which has been documented and analysed by performance framework. It will be responsible SESAR Task 114 specialists. Objectives and Targets for eliciting the balance between the KPAs that having an impact on the concept development in D3 contribute to sustainability and for ensuring that have been discussed. Most of the objectives are related dependencies between these KPAs are considered to proper management of environmental issues. when assigning performance objectives and targets.

2.4

When applicable, this work package will take environment objectives into account for defining the architecture of the ATM system

No direct link between environmental constraints and the architecture have been identified. However, environment-related requirements could need specific components in the architecture to be designed in D3

2.6

No environmental requirements were identified in the SoW

N/A

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SoW reference section

Assessment

3.2

This work package will integrate safety and environmental objectives into the short term improvements

Specific short-term improvements have been identified to address Safety and Environmental aspects.

All initiatives have been evaluated against the associated KPA. There is no evidence that all the identified programmes include producing an environment impact assessment.

4.1

This work package will provide the roles and responsibilities elements of the SESAR Implementation Phase for: • The Safety Management Plan.

• The environment-related activities

T4.1.1 has addressed environmental aspects of regulation as a subject in a general performance based management of ATM.

Recommendation for subsequent SESAR milestones Task 1.1.4 is continuing its activities during D3 and D4 and will check how the operational and institutional aspects of the proposed SESAR solution match the vision developed in D2, in order to identify the environmental actions to be populated in the SESAR ATM Master Plan.

Adopting a screening approach for environmental sustainability aspects as recommended for safety could ensure that environmental aspects are correctly covered and provide the input material for the following steps of the SESAR solution sustainability impact assessment during D3 and D4.

Sustainability Impact Assessment This section conforms to PART I /Section A/ of the Initial Impact Assessment Screening. It is an augmented version of Annex I of D1, enriched with strategic objectives produced during M2.

As agreed with the Purchaser, the template is filled progressively at each milestone, so as to produce a completed Impact Assessment by the end of the PD phase.

Problem analysis: What are the main problems identified?

Air Transport is recognised for its direct (e.g. 1.5 million jobs in Europe in 2004), indirect (1.8 million jobs), and induced (0.8 million jobs), social benefits. Moreover, catalytic benefits of Air Transport (effect on incomes, government finances, etc.) are estimated to amount to 6 times the direct benefits.

However, Air Transport is not sustainable under the current operating and societal conditions, according to the observed economic performance of European airlines. Moreover, the traffic growth forecast shows that the airport infrastructure in Europe will become a major bottleneck if no additional runways are made available. On the other hand there is a growing pressure put on Air Transport to reduce its environmental impact, especially in the vicinity of airports.

ATM is an actor of the value chain of Air Transport and as such, can improve its own processes to contribute to the sustainability of Air Transport by:

• Acting on the efficiency of flights and optimizing the usage of the bounded capacity of airspace and airport surface.

• While mitigating the environmental impact of operations.

This ATM improvement will address all sectors of ATM, including institutional, operational and technical aspects. A performancebased approach will be followed, starting from performance gap identification and appropriate analysis of solutions. The ICAO performance framework will be used to ensure balancing performance areas, including capacity, cost efficiency and environment.

Objectives: What are the main objectives of the proposal?

According to the ICAO performance framework, the objectives are specified for the 11 Key Performance Areas, grouped into: • Societal outcome: Safety, Security and Environmental sustainability • Operational performance: Cost effectiveness, efficiency, flexibility, predictability and capacity • Performance enablers: Access & equity, participation, interoperability The objectives are characterised by indicators that themselves have targets assigned when possible. The targets are set from various sources and refine the European Commission's (EC) expectation for SESAR, expressed by EC Vice-President Jacques Barrot: SESAR will deliver a future European Air Traffic Management (ATM) System for 2020 and beyond which can, relative to today's performance, enable up to a 3-fold increase in air traffic movements whilst reducing delays, improve the safety performance by a factor of 10, enable a 10% reduction in the effects aircraft have on the environment and provide ATM services at a cost to the airspace users which is at least 50% less.

Implementing an effective performance management process based on the performance framework is an objective by itself. This will lead to performance-based transition planning for the ATM network, considering all areas of performance.

Objectives dealing with institutional aspects aim at drastically reducing the complexity of the current institutional framework and enabling efficient governance and decision–making mechanism for the SESAR solution development and deployment.

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The SESAR Definition Phase is funded by the European Commission’s TEN-T Programme and EUROCONTROL.