TREE – Data‐driven modelling of network‐wide extension of the Tree of Reactionary delays in ECAC area
Coordinated by:
Research Questions
ISDEFE
Consortium members:
SJU E.02.28
IFISC
How can the propagation of reactionary delays be characterized taking into account the influence of the aircraft links, crew rotation and passenger connections? Which type of links could provoke more delays? Which percentage of the delay of airline ‘A’ suffered at the end of the day has been due to reactionary delays type ’crew‐link’? The reactionary‘, 'knock‐on' or 'propagated’ delays are one of the largest delay causes in Europe. The Reactionary delays have no specific origin or cause, they result from primary delays transferred from a previous flight through aircraft rotation, crew links and passenger connections. The share of reactionary delay out of total delay reaches 40 %. Flight links through the use of constrained resources are the mechanism for the propagation of delays and the amplification of the impact of root delays in the flight network.
Research Scope
Airlines related causes are the ones with highest contribution to the total delay (CODA Digest 2012 report). It is complex and difficult for airlines to record successfully the precise origins of reactionary delays. The way airlines handle primary delay disruptions determines the extent and pattern of the knock‐on effect. TREE will apply modelling and simulation to predict the occurrence of the reactionary delays in European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) area. Also TREE will characterize the propagation of reactionary delays taking into account the influence of the aircraft, crew and passenger links, evaluate the daily planning performance and analyse the impact of perturbations in the network and then test the implementation of diverse airline disruption management measures from the ATM Network and Airlines points of view. Additionally new metrics will be defined, inspired in Complex Networks Theory to quantify the level of Air Transport Network congestion. The proposed metrics of performance will have different levels of resolution, from local or airport based to regional or network‐wide. Thus, the model will allow the evaluation of a daily planning performance as well as assessment of the impact of perturbations in the network. The model structure and its functionalities will also make possible the exploration of the limits of the present theories in Complex Networks regarding Air Transportation system stability and control of the networked dynamic.
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TREE – Data‐driven modelling of network‐wide extension of the Tree of Reactionary delays in ECAC area
Research Results
SJU E.02.28
TREE is expected to develop and validate a model able to: Process large amount of flight data including aircraft, crew and passenger links; Forecast propagation patterns of reactionary delays; Capture network response to the introduction of large‐scale disruptions and the level of uncertainty; Represent and analyse delay management solutions at strategic planning level and their influence on the delay propagation. To this end, new concepts and methods will be implemented in software tools with the aim of describing in a realistic way the propagation of delays throughout the European Air Transportation Network. In addition new metrics of performance will be proposed in order to attempt quantifying the level of Air Transport Network congestion.
Web site: More on tree‐sju.eu
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