Petroleum Review December 2020 / January 2021 - open access articles

The magazine for oil and gas professionals in the energy transition

December 2020 / January 2021 – open access articles The following articles are taken from Petroleum Review magazine’s December 2020 / January 2021 edition for promotional purposes.

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Shipping

EMISSIONS

Steaming towards decarbonisation A

Terntank’s LNG-powered tankers feature a more efficient hull design and are reported to have achieved CO2 emission savings of some 40% Photo: Bjarte Borlaug/ Terntank

year ago, the global shipping community was struggling to come to terms with the new restrictions on sulphur oxide emissions in ships’ exhausts imposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) that took effect on 1 January 2020 – the so-called ‘IMO 2020’ rule. In the event, enough ultra-low sulphur fuel oil was available, and enough exhaust gas scrubbers fitted to allow trade to continue virtually uninterrupted.

Thoughts are now turning to the next IMO moves as part of its implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which call for a significant reduction and eventual elimination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, with looming deadlines in 2030 and 2050. For an industry that has been wedded to fossil fuels since sail gave way to steam in the mid-1800s, this will be a major transition.

It will also be a great technical challenge and there are many different ideas as to how decarbonisation can be achieved. The most obvious is to use fuels that are not based on hydrocarbons – hydrogen, ammonia and electricity, either sustainably sourced or generated via an onboard fuel cell. There is an alternative – to use carbon-neutral liquid fuels that are manufactured by using biomass or other nonfossil sources and renewable

12 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021

Tanker owners are already making headway to meet IMO’s targets for a carbon-neutral shipping industry, writes Peter Mackay, Principal Consultant, Meredith & Company.

electricity. These ‘e-fuels’ would have the advantage of being able to use the existing supply and delivery network.

Whichever route is chosen – and it is likely that individual shipowners will make their own choice – getting to the point where such alternative fuels can be used to power oceangoing ships will take innovation and collaboration.

In the keynote address to the Shipping Insight 20/20 conference in October 2020, Christopher J Wiernicki, Chairman, President and CEO of classification society ABS, said: ‘In our industry, the more all stakeholders in the supply chain cooperate on meeting the challenges of getting to 2030 and 2050, the sooner we will reach those goals and the better we all will be.’

Wiernicki also said that the real challenge to get to 2050 will involve a hybrid solution, including not just the development of alternative fuels and improved technologies, but also operational efficiencies.

Pathway to compliance Another major classification society, DNV GL, has also been looking at the pathways to decarbonisation and, in its recently published Maritime Forecast to 2050, laid out some options. IMO’s current ambitions envisage a world fleet still running largely on fossil fuels (including LNG) in 2030, with some moderate carbon pricing to

encourage alternatives. By 2040, vessel design and operational requirements will become stricter, the price of carbon will rise and newbuilds will be using new fuels. By 2050, there will be a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the 2008 level and a 70% improvement in carbon intensity.

In the DNV GL model, fossil LNG initially gains a significant share of the marine fuels market, being replaced from 2030 or 2040 by bio-gasoil, e-gasoil, bio-LNG and e-LNG on existing ships; newbuilds will be designed to run on biomethanol, ‘blue’ ammonia or e-ammonia. DNV GL also believes there is the option to accelerate IMO’s ambitions by removing the transition via LNG and going straight to bio- and e-gasoil.

‘It is difficult to identify clear winners among many different fuel options across all scenarios,’ said Tore Longva, Principal Consultant at DNV GL, in the report. ‘However, e-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently model with a high market share in the decarbonisation scenarios and are the most promising carbonneutral fuels in the long run.’ That situation presents its own problem – without clarity, shipowners are confused and possibly reluctant to be a frontrunner. The increasingly diverse fuel environment means that, if they make the wrong choice – and bearing in mind

Shipping

the potential for later regulatory action or major changes in comparative costs – they risk being saddled with a stranded asset.

IMO has promised some clarity on regulations in 2023, which may help clear the fog somewhat.

Getting together However, as Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime, says: ‘Perfect is the enemy of good.’

Owners cannot wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Similar views were expressed by Shell in a report on the decarbonisation of shipping, produced in collaboration with Deloitte and involving interviews conducted during 1H2020 with 80 leaders across the maritime sector. In the report, Shell said that shipping leaders feel that the uncertainty about where to begin has created what one interviewee described as a ‘deadlock’. Shell believes that collaboration within and outside the shipping industry will be needed to break that deadlock.

There is certainly plenty of talk going on. In 2019 the Global Maritime Forum, in partnership with the Friends of Ocean Action and the World Economic Forum, formed the ‘Getting To Zero Coalition’. The alliance of more than 120 companies in the maritime, energy, infrastructure and finance sectors aims to provide transformational leadership during the move to zero emission vessels, which it expects to be delivered by 2030.

In October 2020, a group of the world’s largest energy, agriculture, mining and commodity trading companies agreed the ‘Sea Cargo Charter’, through which they pledged to assess and disclose the climate alignment of their shipping activities. Jan Dieleman, Chair of the Charter’s drafting group, said at the time: ‘A standard greenhouse gas emissions reporting process will simplify some of the complexities often associated with reporting. It will encourage a more transparent and consistent approach to tracking emissions, which will be a critical part of making shipping more sustainable.’ The 17 founding signatories included some major oil, energy and chemical companies, including Dow, Equinor, Occidental, Shell and Total, as well as major trading houses and dry bulk shippers.

Concrete action There is no shortage of examples of the tanker shipping industry stepping up to the challenge

Asahi Tanker's new ‘e5’ vessels will be powered entirely by large-capacity lithium ion batteries and are reported to be the first zero emission tankers in the world on delivery in 2022 and 2023 Photo: Asahi Tanker

of decarbonisation, and those examples illustrate the range of solutions available. Denmarkbased operator Terntank, for example, has been working on greening its fleet for some time, often in cooperation with its charterer clients. In November 2019 it ordered two 15,000-dwt hybrid chemical/product tankers, with options on two more. These build on the LNG-powered tankers it ordered in 2013 and which, through the use of LNG and more efficient hull design, have achieved CO2 emissions savings of some 40%.

The new ships, due to join the fleet in 2021, will run on LNG and liquefied biogas (LBG), an LNG-equivalent fuel derived from biomass. Charterer Preem is already using a 10% LBG blend in one vessel, but the new ships will also be fitted with a hybrid battery system that will eliminate the need for auxiliary engines on arrival and departure from ports and will also power the bow thruster. To achieve this solution, Terntank has had to work with the shipyard; the designer Kongsberg; and its charterers Preem and Finnish oil products distributor NEOT, which will charter the first two newbuildings; as well as the Port of Gothenburg, which is aiming to have shore power available by the time the ships are delivered.

Meanwhile, in Japan, Asahi Tanker has recently ordered two ‘e5’ tankers developed by the e5 Lab, a consortium in which Asahi is a partner. The new ships, which will operate as bunker vessels in Tokyo Bay, will be powered entirely by large-capacity lithium ion batteries and will be, Asahi Tanker says, the first zero emission tankers in the world on delivery in 2022 and 2023. Not only will they eliminate emissions of CO2, NOx, SOx and particulate matter, they will also be quieter and have less vibration, making for a more comfortable work environment for the crew and reduced noise pollution in the bay.

These two examples seem

to prove the idea that a move to alternative fuels will be concentrated – at least at first – in smaller vessel sectors and in shortsea and regular trades, where the necessary infrastructure for supplying novel bunkers can be established. However, there are also examples of innovation in deepsea shipping. Eastern Pacific Shipping, for instance, is trialling the use of biofuels in one of its 47,400-dwt medium range product tankers, Pacific Beryl. Dutch biofuel specialist GoodFuels is to supply a bio-fuel oil, equivalent to residual fuel oil, and Eastern Pacific will monitor and analyse performance before broadening its use.

In a more innovative project, leading chemical tanker operator Odfjell is taking part in a consortium developing new fuel cell technology. It plans to test a 1.2 MW prototype fuel cell at the Sustainable Energy ‘catapult centre’ in Norway prior to its installation on one of Odfjell’s newest chemical tankers. The fuel cell is designed to run on a range of fuel types, including ‘green’ ammonia and LNG, and will be able to power a seagoing vessel.

Bernt Skeie, CEO of Prototech, the fuel cell specialist behind the concept, says: ‘Our tests show a CO2 reduction of as much as 40–45% when using LNG, compared to current solutions.

Increased efficiency and reduced fuel consumption also provide significant cost savings, and the ship will be able to sail significantly longer on the same amount of energy. The system will also be ready to operate completely emission-free from the locations where, for instance, ammonia is available for bunkering.’

The technology also enables direct capture of CO2, which will further enhance emissions reduction once the infrastructure for CO2 management becomes available.

Illustrating the position that shipowners find themselves in right now, Erik Hjortland, VicePresident of Technology at Odfjell, says: ‘Ships are to be operated for 20 to 30 years and we need flexible solutions that can meet future emission requirements. We do not have time to wait, we have to think about zero emissions already now. The fuel cell project is one of the paths we are pursuing. We focus on machinery rather than on one single type of fuel. Fuel cell technology gives us flexibility that ensures environmentally efficient operation regardless of fuel changes that may occur in the years ahead.’ ●

Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021 13

Aviation

DECARBONISATION

Aviation’s true awakening?

The engines of environmental change are gaining momentum in the aviation sector, despite the sector’s most challenging year ever.

Michelle Meineke reports.

A

viation has been brought to its knees this year, with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic still reverberating across the globe, thousands of aircraft parked, tens of thousands of redundancies, and several airline bankruptcies. It is not a pretty picture.

But it could get worse if the industry doesn’t avert another potential disaster – failing to accelerate its low carbon efforts, notably in terms of energy efficiency and new fuel types.

Indeed, the greatest threat to The world’s biggest aviation’s balance sheets is not aeroplane manufacturer, COVID-19, but the global push Airbus, unveiled three concepts for the world’s first for a greener future spurred by zero-emissions commercial the Paris Agreement. Aviation aircraft in September 2020 stakeholders underestimate the – potentially entering them magnitude of change at their into service by 2035 (see Box 1 for details) financial peril.

Photo: Airbus ‘The changes to make aviation 14 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021

zero and low emissions will be the most significant innovations since the introduction of the jet engine,’ says Nathan Wrench, Head of Sustainability Innovation at Cambridge Consultants. This heralds the biggest upheaval in aviation in nearly a century.

Aviation isn’t just off the starting block in this regard.

Progress has been made over the last decade in particular.

Improvements to airframe structures and airlines’ fuel use management, for example, mean that every generation of aircraft is contributing around a 30% improvement on the efficiency of the fleet.

But it is simply not enough.

New fuel types are urgently needed to complement this momentum. Aviation remains one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise, warns David Rabley, Managing Director of Strategy at Accenture. When the air fleet and carriers find their post-COVID-19 feet, it is imperative that the importance of environmental performance is placed alongside economic recovery. As we head deeper into the 21st Century, the

value of these two camps will increasingly become one, he says.

Biofuel sticking points Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), such as biofuels, must be prioritised – although it is not a simple road. Questions remain around the aggregation of biomass material and how that aligns with biofuel refineries, plus the significant land-use change required.

‘The biofuels challenge is less around the technology of the final combustion and more around the associated supply chain and the refineries that go alongside it,’ Rabley explains.

‘We’re starting to see the biofuels refinery question as a real test of being able to fund at scale. While companies have been able to direct major investments toward solar and wind farms, these are usually modular financings and relatively fast in terms of their cash flow return and performance.

Comparatively, building a biofuel refinery at scale could cost $8–15bn, and even a small one is $3–5bn. This is a big commitment to the energy transition. Right now,

Aviation

Reactions to Airbus’ plans?

The world’s biggest aeroplane manufacturer, Airbus, unveiled three concepts for the world’s first zero-emissions commercial aircraft in September 2020 – potentially entering them into service by 2035. The concepts, codenamed ZEROe, have hydrogen as their primary power source.3 The concepts are: •

A turbofan design (120–200 passengers) [top of picture] – with a range of 2,000+ nautical miles, capable of operating transcontinentally and powered by a modified gas-turbine engine running on hydrogen, rather than jet fuel, through combustion. The liquid hydrogen will be stored and distributed via tanks located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.

•

A turboprop design (up to 100 passengers) [bottom of picture] – using a turboprop engine instead of a turbofan and also powered by hydrogen combustion in modified gas-turbine engines, which would be capable of travelling more than 1,000 nautical miles, making it a suitable option for short-haul trips.

•

A ‘blended-wing body’ design (up to 200 passengers) concept [far right of picture] in which the wings merge with the main body of the aircraft with a range similar to that of the turbofan concept. The exceptionally wide fuselage opens up multiple options for hydrogen storage and distribution, and for cabin layout.

Many agree this is a step in the right direction, but views are mixed on the balance of public relations savvy versus meaningful progress.

‘The concept leading the pack is a truly exciting blended wing design. This is the most radical and possibly the most complete vision for what it means to adopt an alternative fuel system and optimise efficiency,’ comments Nathan Wrench, Head of Sustainability Innovation at Cambridge Consultants. ‘It might be that the turbofan concept is the easiest to implement in the near term – it is almost possible to imagine it as a conversion of the existing aeroplane fleet.

The USSR proved this concept back in 1988 with the Tupolev Tu-155, although the fall of the Soviet Union stopped this development completely.’

Meanwhile, Andrew Murphy, Aviation Director at Transport & Environment (T&E) says: ‘Announcements like Airbus’ don’t have an impact; investment decisions and concrete proposals do. A company the size of Airbus can afford to have small pilot projects and announcements about more potential pilot projects coming in 15–20 years. But unless it is putting a substantial amount of its research and development (R&D) into new aircraft types, we’re extremely unlikely to see major change.

What Airbus has done to date, putting the bulk of its R&D into incremental improvements in aircraft design, has not succeeded in reducing fuel demand for the aviation sector. Each year, passenger growth outstrips any of those efficiency savings.’ ●

we’re not seeing many companies that can show up at that level. Will the direction of funds be able to cope with the scale needed or will we get stuck?’

One possible route to wholesale biofuels is the establishment of a global or an industry carbon price. A carbon price of $100/t would probably place biofuels on a roughly equal footing to jet fuel, Rabley says. While that is a long way off, it is certainly not the speck on the horizon that it once was. For one, the dramatic decline in the cost of renewable energy in recent years – notably solar and wind power generation – means that what some black gold behemoths deemed ‘fantastical’ talk of peak oil is fast becoming reality (energy major BP, for example, expects peak oil in the early 2020s).

‘There was a perception that the aviation sector would always be a growing demand area for oil and that oil majors needn’t worry about the 2040s or 2050s.

Now we are seeing a different understanding of that,’ comments Andrew Murphy, Aviation Director at Transport & Environment (T&E).

But that doesn’t mean the oil and gas industry doesn’t have a powerplay. Take the Middle East as an example. In recent years, the historical epicentre of fossil fuels took the limping refining reins from Europe with significant infrastructure expansions, including some of the world’s biggest facilities.

Refinery flexibility has already been successfully tested with compliance to the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) new sulphur limits – one of the biggest disruptions in shipping fuels in a century. So why can’t the region – home to Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest international passenger hub for six consecutive years – leverage this opportunity with aviation biofuels in the early 2020s?

the energy transition race that has only just begun, argues Cambridge Consultants’ Wrench. Considering also non-CO2 emissions and the uncertainties of these effects, the latest estimates by Clean Sky1 show how hydrogen combustion could reduce climate impact in flight by 50–75%. While, for fuelcell propulsion, these figures climb to 75–90%, compared to 30–60% for synfuels.

The hype surrounding hydrogen fuel – the most abundant source of energy in the universe – is driving progress. Earlier this year ZeroAvia conducted the world’s first hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft in the form of a six-seater Piper M-class plane that took to the skies above Bedfordshire, in the UK. But in 2008 an engineering team at Boeing also conducted three test flights of a manned airplane powered by hydrogen fuel cells.2 The current optimism is laudable, but history reminds us that innovations can splutter to a crawl – and the climate isn’t allowing us any more time for hesitation. Hydrogen’s potential isn’t a done deal (yet).

‘The current cost of hydrogen, especially green hydrogen, is 5–6 times the cost of the jet equivalent.

This puts it in the realm of an experiment for now, ie tests and pilot projects,’ Rabley explains.

‘At the moment, it is difficult to see where the industries – both hydrocarbons and aviation – have the balance sheet strength for major investments that are going to have a long cycle payback, like hydrogen. They must balance whether they focus on innovations and solutions, knowing it will be a decade or more till they see a payback. Or do they opt to drive down nearer-term emissions at scale?’ For now, the jury’s out. ●

Hydrogen – buzz to reality?

‘Green’ hydrogen (produced from renewables) is the only technology that can decarbonise the aviation industry and the UK risks losing

See also, our sister publication Energy World’s November 2020 issue, pp24–25.

Footnotes 1.

Clean Sky – www.bit.ly/3jivEW9

2.

Boeing – www.bit.ly/34fvo68

3.

Airbus – www.bit.ly/2HhCHkC

A 30,000 ft view The aviation sector emits more than 900mn t/y of CO2. Assuming industry growth of 3–4%/y and efficiency improvements of 2%/y, emissions would still more than double by 2050, according to Clear Sky.1 This is during the same time period that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has committed to a 50% cut in CO2 emissions from aviation compared to 2005. It also coincides with the European Union’s (EU) target to become carbon neutral.

The pressure is on. ●

Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021 15

IP Week 2021

Q&A

Supporting a kingdom of change

An essential component of OE is the innovation process. All our organisations are assessed on their performance in this area.

We provide training in how to innovate and reward those who come up with innovations that we can implement.

What’s even more exciting is that for most of our history we Workplace diversity is key to success, says Reem Abdullah could only hire males. Which meant that we could only access Al-Ghanim, Head of HR & Support Services in Chemicals 50% of the available talent. But Business, Saudi Aramco, who will be speaking at IP Week 2021.* despite that limitation, we were able to create one of the world’s most valuable companies. Now we can hire women for the same jobs What is Saudi Aramco doing to as men. Just imagine what we will encourage workplace diversity and achieve now that we can access gender balance? Saudi Aramco 100% of the available talent! has focused on increasing As for HR, the greatest changes gender balance in the workforce, are taking place not only in by supporting STEM (science, our workforce, but in the tools technology, engineering and being made available thanks to mathematics) education, offering IR4.0 (also known at the fourth young women sponsorship industrial revolution, or Industry opportunities, and developing 4.0 – see p24). One of our latest the female pipeline after joining initiatives is the establishment the workplace. We are committed of the HR Intelligent Solutions to making the company the best Center (HRISC). HRISC acts as a place to work for diverse talent of one-stop-shop for all workforceany gender. related measures, providing One example is the ‘College real-time workforce insights with Degree Programme for Nonscenario planning, benchmarking Employees’. This initiative is and multiple data views from one of Saudi Aramco’s primary corporate to division level. It sources for entry-level Saudi provides a holistic overview of the professionals. It targets high organisation, supporting evidenceperforming high-school students, based decision-making processes and supports them as they earn for leadership. Because of IR4.0, line through Johns Hopkins Reem Abdullah Al-Ghanim, degrees in engineering disciplines Head of HR & Support HR is evolving from a service Aramco Healthcare. and geosciences. This programme Services, Saudi Aramco provider to a crucial business We have also relied more has enabled more women to join Photo: Saudi Aramco heavily on virtual ways of working, driver. HRISC will help Saudi the different technical fields that Aramco identify gaps between its communicating, learning and Saudi Aramco requires, such as business strategies and available collaboration across the company, geophysicists, and petroleum and HR resources, and will enable and continued the development chemical engineers. collective efforts to bridge these and advancement of our diverse Another example is the range gaps, to assure further growth and talent. of leadership and mentoring success. programmes to develop skills In terms of ESG, we have an What are you doing in terms of and fast-track advancement. Our established track record. Saudi innovation and human resources ‘Women in Business Programme’, Aramco has always been a leader (HR)? Are any initiatives related to for example, supports women in environmental protection, the energy transition and need to who are beginning their careers, and we have established satellite build new skills in terms of ESG, ie while our ‘Women in Leadership research centres around the environmental and sustainability Programme’ offers mentorship globe that are working on such goals? Innovation has been a part and development opportunities to concepts as crude-to-chemicals, of our corporate culture from the high-performing female leaders in very beginning. From the start, the carbon capture, and establishment the company. of a circular economy that primary considerations were that ensures recycling of plastic. We an innovation had to be practical, How has the pandemic impacted also offer courses to employees effective, economic and safe.

Saudi Aramco’s operations? Have on all of these topics, including In recent years operational there been any significant changes sustainability. excellence (OE) has become a in terms of mental health and Our corporate citizenship corporate mandate. OE can be wellbeing? The focus on mental initiatives include supporting defined as Saudi Aramco’s ability health and wellbeing is the the establishment of businesses to achieve and sustain excellent responsibility of every colleague that provide job opportunities for performance in reliability and in Saudi Aramco. From the start women, persons with disability, efficiency in a cost-effective of the pandemic, the company and disadvantaged communities in manner, while adhering to the has offered different resources highest standards of health, safety the Kingdom and throughout the for employee support, including a world. and environmental protection. dedicated site and mental health 16 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021

IP Week 2021

Since the IPO in 2019, our corporate governance has been even more transparent, and employees attend workshops and courses on ethics. As part of OE, organisations ensure our internal procedures and controls are effective and documented, and of course constantly improved.

As a major NOC, how do you see the workforce changing by 2050, given the increasing use of AI, automation, remote working, the energy transition and changing HR demands? Let’s begin with what work was like 30 years ago.

In 1990, many offices still used typewriters and rotary phones.

We relied on hard copy filing systems. The internet was not widely available. If a computer was in the office, it was not part of a network, but used as an individual workstation to run installed software for specific business uses. Large companies depended on mainframe computers for data processing, and small companies would lease time occasionally.

Long-distance phone calls were expensive and fax machines were essential. Smartphones did not exist; business meetings were in person and often required costly and time-consuming travel; and

training was done in person.

Working from home was not an option.

The workforce had the same structure in almost every country.

Men dominated technical and administrative work, women (if they were present) did clerical work, and the disabled were rarely employed except in government offices.

Thirty years later, typewriters and fax machines are gone. Today every office employee has a PC. Meetings are held virtually, and smartphones allow us to video conference with people all over the world, at no cost. The internet allows employees to research information, take training courses, and communicate with others. And working from home is practical and normal. Most importantly, a workforce that was once defined by gender and physical ability, is now defined by intellect and productivity.

And that change is the one that I believe will continue to define the workforce of 2050.

The introduction of technology not only makes us more efficient, it allows us to be judged not by how we look, but by what we can contribute. In essence, technology facilitates diversity.

The other observation I want to make is how Saudi Aramco has changed its focus. Thirty years ago we were focused on selling crude oil. Now we’re focused on selling energy and petrochemicals.

We have gone from a narrow focus to one that encompasses a broad range of markets. As technology has enabled us to adapt to a changing world, it has also changed our corporate culture to one that is more inclusive, not just in terms of workforce makeup, but in accepting innovative ideas. Thirty years ago, if an employee had suggested we get into renewables, they would have been laughed at. Today we actively encourage employees to suggest new revenue streams. Why the difference in response? Because technology does not just enable a diverse workforce, it enables diversity of thought. By being open to new ways of doing business, we can be open to new ideas. And that is good business.

Therefore, I believe in 2050 we will have an even more talented and diverse workforce that provides energy to the world. ● *IP Week will be taking place as a three-day virtual event on 23–25 February 2021. See inside front cover for details.

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02/11/2020 10:49:54

New fuels

DEEPSEA MINING

Harvesting the ocean scavengers Polymetallic nodules may supply critical metals for low carbon energy if their mining is environmentally sound, writes Maria Kielmas.

R

eliable supplies of critical metals are vital as countries pursue a low carbon future.

Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, cadmium and rare earth elements are needed for electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, photovoltaics, wind turbines, energy storage and nuclear reactors.

As global terrestrial supplies of these metals are often heavily monopolised by a single or handful of countries, and increasingly confronted by environmental devastation and human misery in the form of child and prison labour, researchers and pioneering mining corporations are seeking mineral wealth in the deep oceans.

For some, it is all about terrestrial versus seabed mining. ‘Terrestrial mining is not sustainable given its social impact,’ says Chris Williams, CEO of London-based UK Seabed Resources, a subsidiary of the British arm of US aerospace and defence corporation Lockheed Martin.

Principal sources Three principal sources of marine minerals are of interest to the seabed miners – cobalt-rich crusts on the flanks of seamounts; seafloor massive sulphides (SMS) around hydrothermal vents near spreading centres and subduction zones; and the favourite, polymetallic nodules on the abyssal plains.

First discovered south-west of the Canary Island of Ferro by the pioneering HMS Challenger (1872–1876) ocean expedition, polymetallic nodules are the crustaceans of the mineralogical world. Located just below or above sediment in the abyssal plain at

water depths of 4.5–6.5 km, they accrete over millions of years around a nucleus such as a shark’s tooth or a cetacean ear bone by scavenging critical metals from seawater. Although their composition is dominated by manganese and iron bearing oxides, they contain appreciable amounts of copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, zirconium, molybdenum and rare earth elements. Nickel and cobalt are key components of lithium-ion batteries and are expected to see huge demand growth for use in future energy storage. Terrestrial resources of copper could be exhausted, some researchers think, given the future demand for increased electrical wiring.

Nodules accrete through two known processes. Hydrogenetic precipitation is driven by the oxidation of manganese and iron ions in oxygen-rich seawater, resulting in the accretion of colloids of these metals around the nucleus at the rate of a few millimetres per million years.

Diagenetic precipitation occurs within the pore spaces of ocean sediments with the reduction and dissolution of manganese oxides and the release of associated elements of copper, lithium and nickel. The nodules thrive in ‘apparent symbiosis’ with benthic fauna.1 Nodule growth depends on the activity of benthic megafauna while the nodules, in turn, provide a hard substrate for the attachment of sessile organisms such as barnacles, mussels and coral polyps.

While terrestrial mining works with well-defined ecosystems, the majority of the sea floor is unexplored and deepsea

20 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021

knowledge is only at its initial stages. So, the mining, or any version of removal, of these nodules will impact on unknown biota to an unknown extent by removing the habitat of nodule dependent fauna.

Regulations The environmental liabilities of corporations and states involved in seabed mining will be crucial to its future. The legal basis and authority to issue regulations on the exploration and exploitation of seabed resources lies with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a treaty with 168 parties including the European Union but not the US. The Jamaica-based International Seabed Authority (ISA), a UN agency, is tasked with carrying out and controlling these rules in the deepsea bed beyond national jurisdictions. The ISA has formulated provisions that recognise threats posed by deepsea mining and its draft regulations adopt a precautionary approach as required by the Seabed Disputes Chamber of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. But problems remain. ‘The precautionary approach cannot meaningfully address what we don’t know about the ecosystems of the seabed,’ says Donald Anton, Honorary Professor of Law at the Canberra-based Australian National University. ‘We are so ignorant about so much of these ecosystems that even the most scrupulous application of the precautionary approach cannot provide cautionary protection as intended.’

The mining pioneers acknowledge this uncertainty.

Collecting deepsea bed samples from the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the northern equatorial Pacific Ocean

New fuels

While it may be relatively straightforward to define the nodule resources that they target, the building of an environmental baseline – a reference level for conditions before exploitation – will consume most of their time and costs, says Kris Van Nijen, Managing Director at Antwerp, Belgium-based Global Sea Mineral Resources (GSR). He estimates these costs at $75–100mn. The total project cost for a 3mn t/y nodule production project would be about $3–3.5bn.

Location and composition Polymetallic nodules are present throughout the world’s oceans, but the largest accumulation occurs in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the northern equatorial Pacific Ocean. An area stretching over about 4.5mn sq km between Mexico and Hawaii, most miners and researchers estimate about 21bn tonnes of potato-sized nodules containing on average 1.3% nickel, 0.25% cobalt, 1.2% copper and 27% manganese.

In the 1970s and 1980s Lockheed Martin headed a consortium that collected nodules from the CCZ holding 0.08% on average of rare earth elements, together with low thorium and uranium contents compared with land-based ores. Over the years, researchers have found that nodule composition varies with latitude, biological productivity, the carbon compensation depth (the depth below which carbonate particles cannot accumulate), sedimentation rate and bottom currents. In parts of the CCZ, bottom sedimentation rates and currents are so weak that the tracks from Lockheed Martin’s exploration in the 1970s are still visible, says UK Seabed Resources’ Williams.

Mining here would be outside any country’s jurisdiction and controlled by the ISA. Similar nodules occur in the South Pacific Penhryn Basin and Cook Islands’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the Peru Basin, and the Central Indian Ocean Basin. ISA has signed 21, 15-year contracts for the exploration of seabed mineral resources, of which 18 are for nodule exploration – 16 in the CCZ, one in the Western Pacific Ocean, and one in the Central Indian Ocean. Initially, these contracts were with governments directly or government agencies in China, Korea, Japan, Russia, Poland and France, and since 2010, with private sector companies.

In August 2018, the ISA released a draft version of exploitation regulations containing a

comprehensive set of legal and fiscal terms, expecting these to be finalised by 2019. Known as the Mining Code, it is now in its 4th draft and out for consultation with interested parties. Approval has been delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic, although miners and lawyers expect a finalised version to be ready within two years.

Polymetallic nodules

Exploration licences To get an exploration licence a company needs to be established in a country that has signed and ratified the UNCLOS and passed enabling legislation, says Eleanor Martin, Partner at London law firm NortonRoseFulbright. GSR is sponsored by Belgium, its home government, while UK Seabed Resources is sponsored by the UK, given its base in London, even though its ultimate parent is a US corporation and the US has not signed UNCLOS. Vancouver-based explorer DeepGreen Metals has established two subsidiaries in the Pacific islands – Nauru Ocean Resources and Tonga Offshore Mining, each sponsored by the governments of those islands.

Seabed miners face the challenge of harvesting nodules either using robot collectors or vacuum devices, and reinjecting mining waste into the seafloor, while causing minimal mobilisation of seabed sediment into vast plumes and contaminating the seafloor.

Researchers have been devising quantitative models of such plumes, but so far these are only assumptions. The real test comes with mining.

A harvesting vehicle would have to be deployed from a vessel at sea, travel kilometres down to the seafloor and probably suck in about four inches of sediment from the seafloor, according to research by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Onboard the ship, the nodules have to be separated from

collected sediment, which in turn is channelled back into the ocean floor. ‘Deep sea mining companies have been quick to point to their reduced environmental impacts relative to terrestrial mining.

This is disingenuous,’ notes John Childs, Senior Lecturer at Lancaster University Environment Centre.

The impact of seabed mining is not limited to its point of extraction.

‘We are talking about the largescale movement of mined material through the water column and transported across great distances above sea.’ Potential long-term impacts of deepsea mining are both uncertain and unlikely to show up and be realised with the lifespan of mining activity, he adds.

Environmental baseline Environmental planning is crucial. ‘The environmental plan for harvesting by a company or country has to be published and then the ISA takes on comments,’ says NortonRoseFulbright’s Martin.

This has to be accompanied by environmental guarantees in the form of insurance policies, letters of credit, and performance bonds.

GSR’s Van Nijen explains that in 2018, the company published the world’s first such environmental impact statement (EIS) for collector trials due in 2021. This EIS has gone through a public participation process organised by the Belgian government. An environmental study for exploitation is ongoing, he adds.

In a 2019 paper2 Van Nijen wrote that environmental damage from seabed mining, which creates an external cost, is unlikely to receive substantive remediation, if at all, due to the nature of the resources in the deepsea environment. Without remediation, contractors do not bear corresponding remediation costs as they are normally expected to do. Today, Van Nijen adds that this does not mean that remediation options aren’t carefully studied during the environmental studies in preparation for exploration.

To date, only one company, Toronto-based Nautilus Minerals, has embarked on a deepsea mining project. Nautilus had been exploring offshore Papua New Guinea since 1997 and planned to mine SMS in the Bismarck Sea in its Solwara-1 prospect. But the venture failed and the company went into administration in 2019 while the Papua New Guinea government, who held a 30% share in the project, lost an estimated $125mn.

The Nautilus experience has

Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021 21

New fuels

been weaponised by NGOs in Canada and worldwide to oppose deepsea mining. DeepGreen Metals CEO Gerard Barron was a major investor in Nautilus, but says he exited in 2007–2008 when the company had completed environmental studies, secured a mining licence and had a healthy cash balance. Nautilus was a pioneer, and made mistakes focusing on SMS that require invasive, destructive machinery to break up hard subsea rock, he adds. These have not been found on a large scale and then only in shallower waters. DeepGreen focuses solely on nodules. In midOctober 2020 a research ship set sail from San Diego to conduct an environmental baseline survey in the DeepGreen licence area in the CCZ. The company aims to produce copper and nickel from harvested polymetallic nodules.

Boxcore sampler being lowered to 4.5 km water depth

Fiscal regime The key commercial drivers of taxes and royalties for seabed mining have received less coverage than the environmental issues.

The commercial royalty payment scheme is a key element of the code, notes NortonRoseFulbright’s Martin, But the question is: are royalties payable on each metal

content of a nodule, or each metal successfully extracted? ‘You could end up paying for something you cannot exploit,’ she says.

The intention of the ISA has been to charge a royalty on a basket of metals. This royalty will be an ad valorem royalty based on the nodule’s pre-processing value.

UK Seabed Resources’ Williams thinks that the royalty scheme should be within some margin of terrestrial royalty regimes. The ISA will be reporting soon on this issue.

It has been looking at changes in the metal markets and manganese pre-market trading.

However, the African Group of countries in the ISA has already expressed concern that deepsea bed royalties should be set at a level that do not give the marine miners a competitive advantage over terrestrial miners.

Government entities such as Umweltbundesamt, the German Environment Agency, are calling for benefit sharing mechanisms from profits of deepsea mining to be allocated according to the Common Heritage of Mankind Principle, a core component of UNCLOS. This is the obligation to balance exploitation of resources with the environment. It is moving in the right direction but, so far, nodule harvesting remains an aspiration. ● All photos: UK Seabed Resources References 1.

Adriana Dutkiewicz, Alexander Judge and Dietmar Muller, ‘Environmental predictors of deep-sea polymetallic nodule occurrence in the global ocean’, Geology, March 2020, pp293–297.

2.

Kris Van Nijen, Steven Van Passel, Chris G Brown, Michael W Lodge, Kathleen Segerson and Dale Squires, ‘The development of a payment regime for deep sea mining activities in the area through stakeholder participation’, International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, 34, 2019, pp 571–601.

1,000 young energy voices from around the world

Read the manifesto in full on the Energy Institute website: www.energy-inst.org/Generation2050

#GENERATION2050

Energy Institute

GENERATION 2050

Time is running out – the energy sector’s Generation 2050 speaks up I n the late 1990s, legendary General Electric CEO Jack Welch made 500 of his top executives pair up with junior, tech-savvy members of staff to learn how to use the internet. He secured his company a competitive edge and popularised what’s now known as reverse mentoring.

There are obviously great benefits that come with experience and longevity, as shown by the incredible achievements of today’s leaders across industries. But the act of listening to diverse opinions can open eyes to fresh ways of thinking about strategic issues and leadership, and can challenge our mindset in profoundly positive ways.

Reverse mentoring isn’t really about age – it’s about the vantage point from where we each see the world. And in the context of the intergenerational nature of the climate change, this is crucial.

As a ‘millennial’ I have grown up witnessing the increased certainty in observations, theory and modelling on climate change.

‘Generation Z’ (yes, there is actually a generation below mine starting to emerge into the workplace) have not only spent formative years against a backdrop of even greater certainty around the scientific impacts, they have also witnessed real world discussions on the technological and policy changes required to reduce current emission trends.

Subsequently, younger generations are generally more concerned about climate change and are keen to contribute to genuine reform, which should be an intergenerational effort anyway.

Energy industry responds Young people early in their careers in the energy sector today will be the industry’s leaders in 2050. We will inherit an exciting industry that has a rich history of achievement. We will also inherit an industry that will be judged on how it has responded to the

With COP26 less than a year away, an intergenerational climate emergency requires intergenerational action. We have over 1,000 young energy experts that can help shape the climate debate, writes the Energy Institute’s Sinead Obeng.*

climate emergency.

That’s why we have published the Generation 2050 Manifesto. It articulates the voices of more than 1,000 under-35-year olds working in and studying energy, from London to Lagos, Singapore to San Francisco, from oil and gas through to nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency and storage.

All of these sectors must work together to meet net zero. I myself work predominantly in the gas industry, where a plethora of initiatives to decarbonise energy are under way from the electrification of upstream assets, hydrogen deployment in the gas transmission networks to investments in offset programmes.

Generation 2050 is an incredibly driven body of people – 60% of our contributors identify climate change as the main motivator for choosing their career in energy and 90% recognise it has given them greater agency in tackling this global challenge.

Consequently, the large majority worry for their inheritance – three-quarters fear the world is currently unlikely to keep global average temperatures within 2°C this century. They call for political leaders to introduce legislative and regulatory reforms to drive the transition further and faster, and industry leaders to align their business plans and commitments with the ambition demanded by global climate targets.

We are similarly disappointed at the pace of progress towards the UN goal of universal access to energy by 2030. Human ingenuity in our field has achieved so much, and yet around 800mn people still

don’t enjoy access to electricity and 3bn still cook with dangerously toxic cooking fuels. Finding affordable, reliable pathways to provide sustainable energy for all populations without compromising security of supply is crucial.

Post-pandemic rebuilding The next decade will be critical for getting on track, next year in particular, in how today’s political, industrial and societal leaders go about rebuilding after the pandemic. At COP26 we want our voices to be heard and our recommendations to be carefully considered.

Generation 2050 will be working over the coming year to get the Manifesto noticed where it counts, taking over some of the Energy Institute’s channels and activities, with the help of our supporting partners – high profile names from across industry, academia and government who share the view that tomorrow’s energy leaders should be heard today.

I have huge admiration for those sitting in boardrooms and around cabinet tables today – but I am also hugely optimistic about the ability of my generation to take up the reins in the future.

Meeting net zero requires creative solutions that involve all technologies and realms of the energy industry – all of which are represented within the Energy Institute’s broad membership.

Generation 2050 seeks to remove any room for villainisation, bridge the generation gap and provide a space for future energy leaders to put forward fresh ideas to today’s political leaders, industry leaders and the wider society. l * Sinead Obeng AMEI is Chair of the Energy Institute Young Professionals Council The Generation 2050 Manifesto is at www.energy-inst.org/generation2050 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021 23

Technology

PROCESS AUTOMATION

Shift to industrial autonomy From robots to digital twins and AI, new technologies are revolutionising the way process plants operate and decision-making processes. The move towards more industrial autonomy will improve productivity and safety, and address the skills gap, explains Bert Konings, Executive Director, New Business Development, Yokogawa.

A

That trend is leading to a race within the industry – a race to what Yokogawa refers to as level five automation. Level five is defined as operations which are completely autonomous, within the integration of systems within supply chain and process operations, among others. Simply put, these systems no longer require human intervention to be operational.

COVID-19 has sped up a major leg in the race to level five automation. As companies count the costs of an absent or significantly reduced workforce, a well-designed autonomous system is recognised to bring the benefits of remote operations and safer working environments.

utomation is certainly not a new concept for the process industry, but the ongoing pandemic has placed new impetus on the sector to scale-up and become increasingly automated.

Due to social distancing guidelines and nervousness among workforces to return to their places of work, a higher priority is being placed on the ability to continue running operations without workers needing to be onsite.

COVID-19 has somewhat put the brakes on economic growth this year, but, ironically, it is proving one of the biggest stimulations for future innovation.

In fact, Yokogawa’s research shows that two-thirds of process industry companies across the globe now expect to have fully autonomous operations by the year 2030.

Indeed, the pandemic has likely changed the industry forever.

From robots and quantum computing to digital twins and artificial intelligence (AI), new technologies are revolutionising the way that plants operate.

They are facilitating a shift as physical tasks and decisionmaking processes are being made more autonomous – ultimately improving productivity and worker safety.

But to what extent are companies automating, and how?

Reaching level five automation As process industries embrace automation, operational technology (OT) and IT professionals are looking at ways to increase productivity through autonomous operations. We have recently seen the renewables sector putting a greater emphasis on automation investment as a direct result of COVID-19, for example. According to a recent survey of 500 respondents in six key process industries, including oil and gas (see Box for details), process industries are aiming to increase their investment in industrial automation over the next three years. A definite trend is emerging.

An aid to decision making There are many different technologies that companies should adopt to reshape operations, including wireless and 5G, blockchain, industrial fixed robots and vision systems.

But there are four autonomous technologies that have become a top priority for companies to achieve level five automation.

AI – AI is the driving force behind autonomous operations, and process industry companies will be investing hugely in AI systems that will allow for new decision-making technologies to be implemented.

Figure 1 Technology investment priorities for the next three years Source: Yokogawa

26 Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021

Cloud analytics and Big Data – The sheer volume of data required for processes to run autonomously and be instantly shared between many systems and devices will be tremendous. The distributed edge networks in which this data is created – and the continual cycles of DevOps-style software upgrades required to ensure the data integrity and safety of the network – means that without an effective Cloud approach and analytics system, automation systems simply won’t operate effectively.

Cloud analytics, along with Big Data, provides ways to analyse, systematically extract information from, or otherwise deal with data sets that are too large or complex to be dealt with by traditional dataprocessing application software.

These are crucial investments for process industries to install to aid decision-making.

Intelligent sensors and devices – If systems are to run autonomously, then they must be able to diagnose and calibrate independently too. Hence, smart sensors are vital to enable concepts like self-diagnostics, self-calibration, and self-configuration/ parameterisation. There is an increasing need to measure quality attributes and raw material attributes, which are enabled by smart sensors, such as in digital twin deployment. This

Technology

also represents a basis for the comprehensive use of chemistrycontrolled process plants.

Cybersecurity – As the above technologies become connected and autonomous, the wider the cyber threat surface grows.

Cybercriminals and hackers are extremely adept at noticing industry trends. So investment in cutting-edge cybersecurity solutions is a top priority for the process industries.

These four investment areas are key to enabling organisations to make better decisions with a greater span of control and lead the race to level five automation.

Addressing the skills gap As these technologies become ever more complex, they require constant training and development of personnel. Unfortunately, this can lead to the potential for an ever-growing window of human error. Automating and programming existing processes makes keeping up with the learning curve far more time consuming.

One issue that has been concerning professionals in the manufacturing and process

Figure 2: Levels of autonomy reached by end users Source: Yokogawa

The race to level 5 autonomy Yokogawa commissioned global research on the advancement of industrial autonomy among companies in six key process industries, including oil and gas, refining and petrochemicals. Some 500 respondents provided an in-depth view of future trends in automation and autonomy, the business objectives they are targeting, and the technologies they are implementing to meet those objectives.

The key takeaway is the rapid ramp-up in expectations for what Yokogowa defines as level 5 fully autonomous operations, with just 1% of respondents anticipating they will see this in 2020, and this figure rising to 19% for 2023 and 64% for 2030. This trend is common across all industries. Only 7% said they had no plans to introduce some form of industrial autonomy.

So, what is behind this fundamental shift from manual and automated operations to autonomy?

Some 48% of respondents ranked productivity improvements and 40% named operations efficiency as top priorities for digital transformation. Quality management, energy management and worker safety also ranked highly.

Industrial autonomy affects both decision-making processes and physical tasks, and will require a range of emerging technologies. About 42% of respondents said they are making significant investments in AI over the next three years; 40% are investing in intelligent sensors and devices; and 29% are making significant investments in quantum computing.

The technologies of tomorrow are being invested today in the push for greater autonomy. ●

industries is the lack of a skilled workforce to take up these complex operations. Brexit could potentially limit free movement, which means fewer skilled EU workers will move to the UK. However, the truth is that a skills shortage already existed before 2016. According to recent reports, approximately 186,000 new engineers and manufacturers are needed every year until 2024, but the industry is facing a deficit of around 20,000 graduates annually.

Tackling this issue is key to creating a strong manufacturing and process industry base and securing their role in the global economy.

As skilled personnel and veterans of the industry reach retirement age their knowhow and experience are very hard to replace, and is certainly challenging in the short-term. It would be unfair to expect a newly employed graduate to perform or have the same level of expertise as someone who has been in their career for 40 years.

However, new automated technologies being implemented in workplaces can help bridge the knowledge gap caused by babyboomers retiring. People entering the workplace can be taught to use new systems that didn’t exist even a decade ago, ensuring that the skills gap created by numerous retirements isn’t so wide. The management of applications throughout autonomous operations can offset the shortage of skilled labour as people retire.

This remains a key issue for the process sector.

Moving to autonomy COVID-19 has accelerated the rush to achieve autonomy, given the need to run operations with a smaller workforce. But there are numerous other benefits that justify the financial outlay, particularly for improvement of productivity and efficiency.

Automated operations also free-up human workers to focus on more creative, strategic tasks that will continue to drive a company forward. Automating processes also leads to greater worker safety. With fewer human workers involved in the production process, there is also less risk of human error, and less opportunity for production to break down or instructions to be miscommunicated. Theoretically, robots should make less (or ideally no) errors if programmed correctly and can process data in a fraction of the time that humans can.

Overall, automation makes workplaces more efficient, more productive, more profitable and safer. Although fully manned tasks may remain largely unchanged in the short-term, the move from level four (minimally manned tasks) to level five (remote operated, unattended systems) will reveal the biggest transformation in process industries.

Yokogawa has found that productivity, increased efficiency and optimised staff levels are the key targets for most process industry companies. Automation will ensure these are delivered.

COVID-19 is the starting pistol The process industry has been lingering at the starting line for some time, but the pandemic has pulled the trigger on the race to reach level five autonomy.

There are many technologies that need to be invested in and implemented, such as AI, robots and quantum computing, and the move towards level five unattended systems is inevitable.

Process industry workplaces are set to change dramatically by 2030.

Tens of thousands of companies are adopting increasingly autonomous processes in a move towards full automation by the end of this decade.

Increasing productivity, reduced costs and addressing the skills shortage are some of the key issues that automation can address, long after the pandemic has passed.

COVID-19 has meant the process industry is having to traverse a troubled path in the short-term, but a new era of automation is dawning. ●

Petroleum Review | December 2020/January 2021 27

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