Special report-01-october 2018-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report 01-Oct-2018

Global markets at a glance The US dollar rose on Friday as the euro fell on deepening worries about an Italian budget with a higher-thanexpected deficit target, which also slammed European stocks. Wall Street ended flat, pulling back from early gains after Facebook disclosed a security breach. Tesla shares lost 13.9 percent after US regulators sued Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk in a fraud complaint that seeks to remove him as CEO.In Italy, the government on Thursday targeted a budget deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product for the next three years, marking a victory for party chiefs over Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, an unaffiliated technocrat. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 0.83 percent. Shares in Italian banks fell as much as 8.5 percent and closed 7.26 percent lower. Italian government bonds were set for their worst day since a brutal May 29 sell-off, up 34-42 basis points across the curve.The euro fell 0.31 percent to $1.1603. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.23 percent. Shares in Asia inched higher on Friday, following gains on Wall Street overnight after news of robust U.S. economic growth, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve saying the United States does not face a large chance of near-term recession.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.02 percent in early trade in Asia. Australian shares were 0.5 percent higher, while Seoul's Kospi was down 0.5 percent after hitting three-month highs on Thursday.Japan's Nikkei stock index gained 1.1 percent, putting it within sight of a 2018 high of 24,129.34 points on Jan. 23. Previous day Roundup The market continued its southward journey for third consecutive day on Friday and closed in the red for eight out of last nine sessions. The Nifty50 attempted positive opening again but failed to hold the upside and remained lower for major part of the session on last trading day of September month, dragged by metals, IT and auto stocks. The index closed far below 11,000 levels, forming bearish candle on the daily charts.In fact, the month of September was like a nightmare for the market as the Nifty lost 6.4 percent, forming a long bearish candle which resembles a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the monthly charts. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-74.80], Consumption[-69.00pts],Bank[77.70pts],Auto[ 225.15pts],FinService[52.15pts],Fmcg[97.45pts],Media[45.10pts],Pharma[-120.00pts],IT[-179.95pts],Metal[184.35pts],Realty[-10.95 pts], Pvt Bank[18.95pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

26,458.31

0.07

S&P500

2,921.50

0.05

NASDAQ

7,668.00

0.14

FTSE100

7,510.20

-0.47

24,120.04 27,788.52

1.34 0.26

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Axis Bank

613.25

13.10

2.18

Wipro

324.00

5.05

1.58

ITC

297.75

4.45

1.52

HDFC Bank

2,006.05

29.90

1.51

HDFC

1,754.50

25.50

1.47

CMP

Change

% Chg

183.65 229.65 338.55 2,933.25 581.25

-19.60 -14.25 -18.25 -154.85 -30.30

-9.64 -5.84 -5.11 -5.01 -4.95

Top Losers Company

Yes Bank Hindalco Bharti Airtel Hero Motocorp Tata Steel

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW GANGOTRI

32.45 5.3

1.6 0.25

4.93 4.72

475

0.95

0.23

1000

-0.01

0

640.66

0.34

0.05

0.55

0.05

9.09

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

29.4 201.4 15.55 26.45 88

-0.55 -10.05 -3.1 -1.45 -5.9

-1.87 -4.99 -19.94 -5.48 -6.7

IRCON LIQUIDETF N100 PRAKASHSTL

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

21STCENMGM 8KMILES A2ZINFRA AARVEEDEN ABAN

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10930.50

-47.00

-0.43

SENSEX

36227.14

-97.03

-0.27

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. HCLTECH [FUTURE ] After making bearish engulfing candle the stock made two bearish candle which is indicating that it can break its crucial support level of 1087 if it break this level today then 2-3 % downside movement is easily possible so we advice to sell hcltech around 1086-85 for the targets of 1075-55 with stoploss above 1100.

2. ITC [FUTURE] The momentum indicator is clearly showing its oversold condition and stock has made a bullish confirmation candle after making a doji candle at its support level of 294 here you can go for a long position from this support level so we advice to buy ITC future around 297-298 for the targets of 301-305 with stoploss below 294.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] DEN [CASH] As per the trend line its clear that the stock continuosly rebounding it but as per the market weakness if it breaks this line then it can fall down by 3-4% here the traders should wait for a perfect breakout so we advice to sell den around 49.50-49 for the targets of 47-42 with stoploss above 51.50

MACRO NEWS  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 2 points or 0.02 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,957level on the Singaporean Exchange.  Oil prices opened firmly on Monday, with Brent hovering close its highest in nearly four years ahead of US sanctions against Iran that kick in next month. Brent crude oil futures were trading at $83.04 per barrel at 0057 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close and near the $83.07 level reached during the last session - the highest since November 2014.  Continuing its healthy recovery momentum for the third-straight day, the rupee on September 28 gained 11 paise to end at a one-week high of 72.48 against the US dollar on sustained selling of the American currency by exporters. However, the domestic for the week finished lower by 28 paise, posting its fifth straight weekly loss.  India's exports hold a promising outlook with the US economy growing at its best in four years, coupled with the rupee depreciation leading to enhanced net revenue realisations, according to a report by Assocham. The US emerged as the top export destination for India, with $47.9 billion worth of shipments in the last fiscal ended March, followed by the UAE and Hong Kong, the commerce ministry data showed.

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Bharti Airtel: In clarification note company said company on its own or through its subsidiary companies keeps on evaluating various opportunities of fund raising (both equity and debt) as per its requirement in ordinary course of business.

6,60,893

39,47,250 

0.05

6,48,916

31,12,575

Yes Bank: The lender has assigned its credit exposure in Jaypee Cement to assets care

25,100

0.05

5,72,117

7,34,520

CE

1,260

0.05

22,048

23,25,000

YESBANK

CE

220

0.05

20,713

33,68,750

YESBANK

CE

210

0.05

15,506

23,80,000

YESBANK

CE

230

0.05

12,688

40,88,000

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

CE

25,600

0.1

6,71,855

7,55,720

NIFTY

CE

11,100

0.05

NIFTY

CE

11,000

BANKNIFTY

CE

RELIANCE

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST

NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

PE

25,100

52.3

7,76,071

1,37,920

NIFTY

PE

11,000

16.9

7,29,598

26,29,275

NIFTY

PE

10,900

0.05

5,47,409

BANKNIFTY

PE

25,200

145

5,21,434

YESBANK

PE

200

0.05

21,630

RELIANCE

PE

1,240

0.05

18,357

YESBANK

PE

210

6.55

14,922

MARUTI

PE

7,600

50

7,687

28,83,300 Nifty showed strength by making some intraday reversal 2,51,600 signal but could not conttinue this movemrnt and 39,49,750 breaked its 11000 level and closed below it here its showing that today also it would make downtrend by 10,65,000 making little upside movement upto 11010 so we advice 4,25,250 to sell nifty future aorund 11010-11000 for the targets of 22,200 10950-10900 with stoploss above 11070.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

124128

10788.66

143078

12324.24

INDEX OPTIONS

3546389

184121.46

3617770

STOCK FUTURES

429168

28666.30

STOCK OPTIONS

75570

5108.55

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

205990

16814.01

-1535.5796

184504.14

624754

53143.03

-382.681

420526

27886.16

1153404

79859.74

780.1402

76384

5150.50

9289

648.35

-41.9471 -1180.0675

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11122.00

11026.00

11006.00

10842.00

10754.00

BANKNIFTY

25565.00

25342.00

25130.00

24907.00

24695.00

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30550 TGT 30600 30650 SL BELOW 30500 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30400 TGT 30350 30300 SL ABOVE 30450

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 38700 TGT 38750 38800 SL BELOW 38650 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 38510 TGT 38450 38400 SL ABOVE 38550

COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9260 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9220 TARGET 9170-9120 SL 9270

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1776 4662 4096 4848 1657.5 4302

0.08 -0.06 1.34 -0.86 -0.24 0.58

Jeera

18770

-0.82

4179 3246 6718

-0.02 -0.43 2.44

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 4980 5010 SL BELOW 4920 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4830 TARGET 4800-4770 SL 4860

The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

72.6505 Yen

64.4700

Euro

85.0418 GBP

95.4347

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.05 TGT 73.50 74.00 SL BELOW 72.50 SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.00 71.50 SL ABOVE 73.00

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.00 TGT 96.50 97.00 SL BELOW 95.50 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40

The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.

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Special Report 01-Oct-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

55.6

0.3%

0.1%

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

16.9 mln

16.7 mln

MONDAY, OCT. 1 9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI

Sept. 10 am

10 am

Construction spending

Aug.

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

Varies

Motor vehicle sales

Sept.

TUESDAY, OCT. 2

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3 8:15 am

ADP employment

Sept.

--

163,000

9:45 am

Markit services PMI

Sept.

--

52.9

THURSDAY, OCT. 4

THURSDAY, OCT. 4

10 am THURSDAY, OCT. 4

THURSDAY, OCT. 4

THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 4 Y, OCT. 4

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

9/27

210,000

214,000

10 am

Factory orders

Aug.

1.9%

-0.8%

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

FRIDAY, OCT. 5

8:30 am 8:30 am

Unemployment rate

Sept.

3.8%

3.9%

8:30 am

Average hourly earnings

Sept.

0.3%

0.4%

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