Special Report 03-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance The Dow hit a record closing high on Tuesday, but another drop in Facebook shares weighed on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, driving both to finish in the red. Dividend-paying sectors were the best performers of the major S&P sectors, with utilities up 1.3 percent and consumer staples up 0.6 percent. Facebook , Netflix and Amazon , part of the so-called FANG group of stocks, kept the Nasdaq in check. The Dow was boosted by names such as Boeing and Caterpillar as investors remained upbeat on trade-sensitive companies following the deal negotiated between the United States, Canada and Mexico. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 122.73 points, or 0.46 percent, to 26,773.94, the S&P 500 lost 1.16 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,923.43 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 37.76 points, or 0.47 percent, to 7,999.55. The NYSE FANG+TM index , an equal-weighted index of five core FANG stocks, was down 4.2 percent for September. The smallcap Russell 2000 index was off 1.01 percent. Smaller names, which had been viewed as being more insulated to trade pressures, are losing their lustre following Sunday's late-night North American trade agreement. The index is now down nearly 5 percent from its August 31 high. Asian shares ticked down on Wednesday and the euro held at six-week lows as Italy's mounting debt and Rome's budget plan set it on a collision course with the European Union.Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5 percent on a stronger yen. Australian shares gained 0.3 percent while New Zealand's benchmark index fell 0.2 percent. E-Minis for the S&P 500 were a shade softer as were Dow futures. Previous day Roundup The index closed above 11,000 levels, forming bullish candle on the daily charts after weakness seen in previous three consecutive sessions. It closed 77.80 points higher at 11,008.30.Experts expect the Nifty to move up further if it sustains above 10,900 and said the next target is seen at around 11,170 levels but the downside seems limited.The Nifty Bank index closed at 25,367, up 247.15 points on Monday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 24,912.4, followed by 24,457.8. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 25,616.9, followed by 25,866.8. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[1.25], Consumption[12.40pts],Bank[247.15pts],Auto [69.30pts],FinService[129.45pts],Fmcg[165.95pts],Media [42.70pts],P harma[61 .95 pts],IT[375 .55 pts],Metal [42.70pts],Realty[-3.30 pts], Pvt Bank[75.55pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,773.31
0.46
S&P500
2,932.25
0.13
NASDAQ
7,999.55
-0.47
FTSE100
7,474.55
-0.28
24,162.99 27,048.52
0.45 -0.26
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Yes Bank
200.85
17.20
9.37
Hindalco
242.90
13.25
5.77
TCS
2,255.55
71.85
3.29
SBI
273.85
8.35
3.15
1,806.35
51.85
2.96
CMP
Change
% Chg
326.75 243.15 593.45 3,940.20 1,642.65
-11.80 -8.30 -19.80 -119.75 -47.40
-3.49 -3.30 -3.23 -2.95 -2.8
HDFC
Top Losers Company
Bharti Airtel HPCL Axis Bank UltraTechCement IndusInd Bank
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW GANGOTRI
34.05 5.55
1.7 -0.25
4.99 -4.5
730.05
12.9
1.77
1000
0.01
0
PRAKASHSTL
0.6
0.05
8.33
RUCHINFRA
6.4
0.3
4.69
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
29.4 201.4 15.55 26.45 88
-0.55 -10.05 -3.1 -1.45 -5.9
-1.87 -4.99 -19.94 -5.48 -6.7
INFY LIQUIDETF
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES A2ZINFRA AARVEEDEN ABAN
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
11008.30
77.80
0.71
SENSEX
36526.14
299.00
0.83
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. INFY [FUTURE ] On monday the particular counter breaked its crucial resistance level of 733 and moved towards its another resistance level of 745, the stock has closed below it but as the volume increses it can surely break this level so we advice to buy infy future around 746-750 for the targets of 760-770 with stoploss below 740.
2. BAJFINANCE [FUTURE] As per the stockhastic momentum indicator the stock is clearly showing a oversold condition. Closing with a hanging man candle at its support level of 2147 the stock has indicated a clear sign of reversal. From here 2-3% upside movement can be found so we advice to buy bajfinance future around 2170-2180 for the target of 2210-2240 with stoploss below 2145.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] GRANULES [CASH] The particular counter has shown a clear bounce back from its support level of 91.60 , since market has shown a reversal from its support level so we can expect that its two weeks downtrend has come to an end here buy on dip would be good strategy to follow so we advice to buy granules around 96-97 for the targets of 100-105 with stoploss below 94.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 2 points or 0.02 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,957level on the Singaporean Exchange. Oil prices opened firmly on Monday, with Brent hovering close its highest in nearly four years ahead of US sanctions against Iran that kick in next month. Brent crude oil futures were trading at $83.04 per barrel at 0057 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close and near the $83.07 level reached during the last session - the highest since November 2014. Continuing its healthy recovery momentum for the third-straight day, the rupee on September 28 gained 11 paise to end at a one-week high of 72.48 against the US dollar on sustained selling of the American currency by exporters. However, the domestic for the week finished lower by 28 paise, posting its fifth straight weekly loss. India's exports hold a promising outlook with the US economy growing at its best in four years, coupled with the rupee depreciation leading to enhanced net revenue realisations, according to a report by Assocham. The US emerged as the top export destination for India, with $47.9 billion worth of shipments in the last fiscal ended March, followed by the UAE and Hong Kong, the commerce ministry data showed.
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
NIFTY
HCL Tech: Completed acquisition of Hönigsberg & Düvel Datentechnik GmbH Signed a five-year managed services deal with TransGrid
Coal India: Provisional production of AprilSeptember 2018 at 256.47 million tonne versus 231.88 million tonne YoY (up 10.6 percent) and Offtake at 290.81 million tonne versus 269 million tonne YoY (up 8.1 percent).
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
CE
11,200 108.9
1,50,730
23,32,200
BANKNIFTY
CE
26,000
17.6
1,46,672
8,71,600
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,000
452
1,37,357
2,58,840
YESBANK
CE
200
20
8,816
MARUTI
CE
8,000 87.85
5,321
37,53,750 NIFTY FUTURE 1,94,925
YESBANK
CE
220
11.5
4,546
36,47,000
RELIANCE
CE
1,300
17
4,411
13,80,000
YESBANK
CE
210
15.3
3,914
19,88,000
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST
2,83,500
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,000
5.55
1,32,344
5,43,960
NIFTY
PE
10,800 95.25
1,26,164
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,900
30
1,24,337
YESBANK
PE
180
11.6
4,940
RELIANCE
PE
1,200
21.3
3,703
MARUTI
PE
7,000
99
3,373
YESBANK
PE
170
8.8
2,827
TATASTEEL
PE
560
14.4
2,757
32,57,850 After a long time nifty showed strength by making 3,29,440 intraday reversal signal from its crucial support support level of 10880. With this reversal the nifty made 77 23,83,500 points upside movement. Today it may continue its 7,81,000 upside movemtn upto 11180 however little correvtion 61,950 can take place so we advice to buy nifty future around 10980-60 for the targets of 11150-11200 with stoploss 13,86,000 below 10900. 5,19,890
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
62502
5510.70
54763
4808.39
INDEX OPTIONS
1114597
103745.10
1115868
STOCK FUTURES
298436
18196.85
STOCK OPTIONS
108090
6672.49
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
217147
17644.20
702.3128
103787.00
671851
57250.55
-41.901
283155
17322.73
1183691
80796.66
874.1218
107055
6591.32
37700
2296.81
81.1662 1615.6998
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11168.00
11088.00
10954.00
10874.00
10740.00
BANKNIFTY
25867.00
25617.00
25162.00
24912.00
24457.00
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30550 TGT 30600 30650 SL BELOW 30500 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30400 TGT 30350 30300 SL ABOVE 30450
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 38700 TGT 38750 38800 SL BELOW 38650 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 38510 TGT 38450 38400 SL ABOVE 38550
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9260 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9220 TARGET 9170-9120 SL 9270
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1778 4654 4107 4852 1637 4268.5
0.28 -0.39 0.32 -0.21 -1.36 -0.96
Jeera
18830
0.32
4145 3169 6764
-0.86 -2.46 0.45
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 4980 5010 SL BELOW 4920 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4830 TARGET 4800-4770 SL 4860
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
72.8036 Yen
63.8900
Euro
84.3799 GBP
94.8825
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.30 TGT 73.80 74.30 SL BELOW 72.50 SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.00 71.50 SL ABOVE 73.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.00 TGT 96.50 97.00 SL BELOW 95.50 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
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Special Report 03-Oct-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
55.6
0.3%
0.1%
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
16.9 mln
16.7 mln
MONDAY, OCT. 1 9:45 am
Markit manufacturing PMI
Sept. 10 am
10 am
Construction spending
Aug.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
Varies
Motor vehicle sales
Sept.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3 8:15 am
ADP employment
Sept.
--
163,000
9:45 am
Markit services PMI
Sept.
--
52.9
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
10 am THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 4 Y, OCT. 4
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/27
210,000
214,000
10 am
Factory orders
Aug.
1.9%
-0.8%
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
8:30 am 8:30 am
Unemployment rate
Sept.
3.8%
3.9%
8:30 am
Average hourly earnings
Sept.
0.3%
0.4%
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