Special Report 04-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance Wall Street advanced on Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record for a second day, after U.S. economic data fuelled a rise in Treasury yields, lifting financial stocks. The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls jumped by 230,000 jobs in September, the largest gain since February. A report from the Institute for Supply Management showed services sector activity hit a 21-year high in September.The data fed expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note touched its highest level in over seven years at 3.179 percent and the two-year yield hit its highest in more than a decade. Asian shares ticked down on Wednesday and the euro held at six-week lows as Italy's mounting debt and Rome's budget plan set it on a collision course with the European Union.Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5 percent on a stronger yen. Australian shares gained 0.3 percent while New Zealand's benchmark index fell 0.2 percent. E-Minis for the S&P 500 were a shade softer as were Dow futures.Investors remained jittery even as a new US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement appeared to ease global trade tensions. A controversial clause in the trilateral pact put the focus back on the Sino-US tariff dispute.China's financial markets are closed for the National Day holiday and will resume trade on October 8. The markets in the world's second biggest economy have taken a hammering this year as investors fretted the trade dispute could put a significant dent on growth. Previous day Roundup The market fell sharply on Wednesday as traders turned cautious ahead of Monetary Policy Committee's rate decision due on Friday after rupee hitting record lows and crude touching multi-year highs. The Nifty50 after gap down opening extended losses as the day progressed and broke the 10,900 levels in last hour of trade. The index closed 150 points lower at 10,858.30 and formed strong bearish candle on the daily charts. If it doesn't stabilise around its 200-day EMA of 10,785 levels then more selling pressure is likely.India VIX moved up by 8.16 percent at 18.21 levels. Volatility is not cooling down which is not giving the relief and suggests a tight bear grip in the market. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-4.55], Consumption[-111.20pts],Bank[ -297.10pts],Auto[ 284.25pts],FinService[-117.15pts],Fmcg[-425.60pts],Media [-11.15pts],Pharma[-83.50pts],IT[-303.80pts],Metal [63.95pts],Realty[-0.10 pts], Pvt Bank[-210.65pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,808.39
-0.45
S&P500
2,918.25
-0.54
NASDAQ
7,623.25
-0.54
FTSE100
7,510.28
0.48
23,940.74 26,635.68
-0.71 -1.71
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Yes Bank
200.85
17.20
9.37
Hindalco
242.90
13.25
5.77
TCS
2,255.55
71.85
3.29
SBI
273.85
8.35
3.15
1,806.35
51.85
2.96
CMP
Change
% Chg
326.75 243.15 593.45 3,940.20 1,642.65
-11.80 -8.30 -19.80 -119.75 -47.40
-3.49 -3.30 -3.23 -2.95 -2.8
HDFC
Top Losers Company
Bharti Airtel HPCL Axis Bank UltraTechCement IndusInd Bank
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW ICICINXT50
35.75 273.72
1.75 -2.82
4.9 -1.03
5.3
0.25
4.72
1000.01
0
0
640.88
-0.38
-0.06
0.65
0.05
7.69
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
28.3 181.8 10.05 2.75 245.75
-0.5 -9.05 -1 0.1 -9.75
-1.77 -4.98 -9.95 3.64 -3.97
JAINSTUDIO LIQUIDETF N100 PRAKASHSTL
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES A2ZINFRA ADHUNIK AHLEAST
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10858.30
-150.00
-1.36
SENSEX
35975.63
-550.51
-1.51
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. INFY [FUTURE ] On monday the particular counter breaked its crucial resistance level of 733 and moved towards its another resistance level of 745, the stock has closed below it but as the volume increses it can surely break this level so we advice to buy infy future around 746-750 for the targets of 760-770 with stoploss below 740.
2. BAJFINANCE [FUTURE] As per the stockhastic momentum indicator the stock is clearly showing a oversold condition. Closing with a hanging man candle at its support level of 2147 the stock has indicated a clear sign of reversal. From here 2-3% upside movement can be found so we advice to buy bajfinance future around 2170-2180 for the target of 2210-2240 with stoploss below 2145.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] GRANULES [CASH] The particular counter has shown a clear bounce back from its support level of 91.60 , since market has shown a reversal from its support level so we can expect that its two weeks downtrend has come to an end here buy on dip would be good strategy to follow so we advice to buy granules around 96-97 for the targets of 100-105 with stoploss below 94.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 117 points or 1.08 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,766level on the Singaporean Exchange. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI governor Urjit Patel, began three-day deliberations Wednesday to decide on the key policy rates amid expectations that it would go for a 25 basis points hike to counter the impact of rising oil prices on inflation. If the RBI raises the interest rate on Friday, it would be third in a row. It hiked key policy rate in this fiscal's second bi-monthly policy in June after a hiatus of fourand-a-half years. Subsequently, the RBI raised the repo rate or short term lending rate by another 25 basis points in August policy meet. The rupee plunged by 43 paise to breach the historic low of 73 level as soaring crude oil prices fuelled worries over capital outflows and widening current account deficit. The domestic currency closed at a record low of 73.34, down by 43 paise or 0.59 percent at the interbank foreign exchange here. Oil prices on Thursday fell from four-year highs reached the previous session, pressured by rising US inventories and after sources said Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise crude output.
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
26,000
1.05
2,39,280
11,08,880
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,900
1.3
2,12,185
2,93,640
NIFTY
CE
11,200
60
1,72,023
28,51,200
YESBANK
CE
220
14.5
7,030
34,65,000
YESBANK
CE
240
8.3
5,187
32,95,250
YESBANK
CE
230 11.05
4,756
30,55,500
MARUTI
CE
8,000 46.85
4,485
2,41,425
VEDL
CE
4,092
21,07,000
250
7.8
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST
L&T Financial Holding board meeting on October 8 to consider raising of funds NCD worth Rs 250 crore
Coal India: Provisional production of AprilSeptember 2018 at 256.47 million tonne versus 231.88 million tonne YoY (up 10.6 percent) and Offtake at 290.81 million tonne versus 269 million tonne YoY (up 8.1 percent).
NIFTY FUTURE
2,83,500
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,600
11.5
1,75,932
3,90,720
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,500
7.9
1,74,511
6,72,160
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,400
355
1,45,377
YESBANK
PE
200
12
5,636
RELIANCE
PE
1,200
37.9
3,239
YESBANK
PE
210 16.25
2,918
YESBANK
PE
180
6.7
2,877
MARUTI
PE
7,000 181.45
2,670
The Nifty50 after gap down opening extended losses as 92,760 the day progressed and broke the 10,900 levels in last 20,26,500 hour of trade. The index closed 150 points lower at 10,858.30 and formed strong bearish candle on the daily 7,79,000 charts. If it doesn't stabilise around its 200-day EMA of 8,82,000 10,785 levels then more selling pressure is likely so we 24,65,750 advice to sell nifty future around 10850-30 for the targets of 10780-10700 with stoploss above 10920. 63,975
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
47567
4316.75
47590
4307.90
INDEX OPTIONS
1175185
109802.22
1157880
STOCK FUTURES
276987
16484.39
STOCK OPTIONS
92072
6006.43
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
220076
18173.56
8.8432
107840.03
734060
63480.30
1962.1887
267926
16067.59
1216806
83726.68
416.8034
92321
6070.17
50197
3127.88
-63.7409 2324.0944
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11042.00
10950.00
10896.00
10804.00
10750.00
BANKNIFTY
25632.00
25350.00
25188.00
24906.00
24744.00
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 31370 TGT 31420 31470 SL BELOW 31320 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 31130 TGT 31080 30030 SL ABOVE 30180
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 39330 TGT 39380 39420 SL BELOW 39280 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 38950 TGT 38900 38850 SL ABOVE 39000
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9260 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9220 TARGET 9170-9120 SL 9270
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1794 4644 4192 4872 1672 4251
0.65 -0.17 2 0.43 2.26 -0.42
18825
0.27
4142 3219 6814
0.02 1.64 1.28
Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 4980 5010 SL BELOW 4920 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4830 TARGET 4800-4770 SL 4860
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
73.0299 Yen
64.1800
Euro
84.5784 GBP
94.9880
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.30 TGT 73.80 74.30 SL BELOW 72.50 SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.00 71.50 SL ABOVE 73.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.00 TGT 96.50 97.00 SL BELOW 95.50 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
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Special Report 04-Oct-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
55.6
0.3%
0.1%
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
16.9 mln
16.7 mln
MONDAY, OCT. 1 9:45 am
Markit manufacturing PMI
Sept. 10 am
10 am
Construction spending
Aug.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
Varies
Motor vehicle sales
Sept.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3 8:15 am
ADP employment
Sept.
--
163,000
9:45 am
Markit services PMI
Sept.
--
52.9
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
10 am THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 4 Y, OCT. 4
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/27
210,000
214,000
10 am
Factory orders
Aug.
1.9%
-0.8%
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
8:30 am 8:30 am
Unemployment rate
Sept.
3.8%
3.9%
8:30 am
Average hourly earnings
Sept.
0.3%
0.4%
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