Special Report 05-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance Wall Street stocks stumbled on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields continued their ascent to multi-year highs on the latest round of strong economic data, building concerns for an acceleration of inflation. The Dow suffered its first decline in six sessions, while both the S&P and Nasdaq had their worst day since June 25. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to a seven-year high of 3.232 percent, marking its largest daily jump since the 2016 US presidential election. Data on jobless claims and factory orders were the latest in a round of strong economic reports this week, putting the focus squarely on Friday's payrolls report for September. Asian shares ticked down on Wednesday and the euro held at six-week lows as Italy's mounting debt and Rome's budget plan set it on a collision course with the European Union. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5 percent on a stronger yen. Australian shares gained 0.3 percent while New Zealand's benchmark index fell 0.2 percent. E-Minis for the S&P 500 were a shade softer as were Dow futures. Investors remained jittery even as a new US-MexicoCanada trade agreement appeared to ease global trade tensions. A controversial clause in the trilateral pact put the focus back on the Sino-US tariff dispute. Previous day Roundup The 50-share NSE index opened sharply lower at 10,754.70 which was highest point of the day and fell further as the day progressed to hit an intraday low of 10,547.25 amid volatility. The index closed 259 points lower at 10,599.30, the lowest level since June 28, 2018. The index formed a 'Bearish Belt Hold' kind of pattern on the daily candlestick charts. "Bears continued to rule the roost with Nifty50 registering a gap down opening below its 200-Day EMA before signing off the session with a Bearish Belt Hold kind of formation.India VIX moved up by 8.05 percent at 19.58 levels. Volatility is not cooling down which is not giving the relief to bulls and suggests a tight bear grip in the market. The Nifty Bank index closed at 24,819.30, down 250.60 points on Thursday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 24,582.46, followed by 24,345.63. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 24,974.76, followed by 25,130.23. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-102.55], Co nsum ptio n[ -97 .25 pts],Bank[ -250 .6 0 pts],Auto [ 168.30pts],FinService[-107.75pts],Fmcg[-867.95pts],Media [-11.00pts],Pharma[-320.15pts],IT[-468.70pts],Metal[19.65pts],Realty[-1.55 pts], Pvt Bank[-62.65pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,808.39
-0.45
S&P500
2,918.25
-0.54
NASDAQ
7,623.25
-0.54
FTSE100
7,510.28
0.48
23,940.74 26,635.68
-0.71 -1.71
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
ICICI Bank
316.50
12.80
4.21
Axis Bank
586.25
14.00
2.45
3,943.65
83.35
2.16
Bharti Infratel
256.15
4.45
1.77
Yes Bank
215.00
2.25
1.0
CMP
Change
% Chg
217.15 331.15 33.80 1,122.25 21,907.85
-34.00 -46.70 -2.90 -82.85 -1327.90
-13.54 -12.36 -7.90 -6.87 -5.71
UltraTechCement
Top Losers Company
HPCL BPCL Vodafone Idea Reliance Eicher Motors
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH ADANITRANS
154.85
-5.35
-3.45
37.5
1.85
4.93
ICICINXT50
270.9
29.1
10.74
JAINSTUDIO
5.55
0.25
4.5
LIQUIDETF
1000
-0.01
0
643.46
2.54
0.39
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
27.8 172.75 9.05 329.75 154.85
-0.55 -8.6 -0.75 -12.5 -5.35
-1.98 -4.98 -8.29 -3.79 -3.45
AIONJSW
N100
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES A2ZINFRA ADANIPORTS ADANITRANS
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10599.30
-259.00
-2.39
SENSEX
35169.16
-806.47
-2.24
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. IRB [FUTURE ] Yesterday the particular counter closed around its crucial support level of 131. yesterday it open postive but could not continued its positive movement with this bearish candle it has confirmed its downside movement which may take its pace after it break its important level of 131 so we advice to sell irb future around 131 for the targets of 128-125 with stoploss above 133.
2. TATAELEXSI [FUTURE] After making a inverted hammer on Wednesday yesterday the counter provided a confirmation bear candle for its downside movement from here one side down fall can take place. Also the sector is also showing weakness so we advice to sell tataelexsi future around 1150-48 for the targets of 1140-30 with stoploss above 1168
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] PARAGMILK [CASH] With multiple bull candles the particular stock is facing a resistance around its 253-254 level today it may show the same moment since the weakness of the market is continued so we advice to sell paragmilk around 246-245 for the targets of 242-235 with stoploss above 249.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 64 points or 0.6 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,540level on the Singaporean Exchange. The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting is coming at a time when all constituents of financial markets are looking at direction and guidance from the central bank. So while the usual outlook on inflation and interest rates will be noted, of far greater importance will be RBI's take on currency, liquidity and crises at major financial institutions. Oil prices rose on Friday, lifted by looming US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports that are set to start next month. The gains helped claw back some of the losses from the previous session due to rising US inventories and after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran. The finance ministry will hold a two-day meeting, beginning October 5, with heads of public sector insurance companies to find out ways and means to strengthen their financial health and improve insurance penetration in the country. The meeting would be addressed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.The chief executives of the public sector insurance companies will brainstorm on business process re-engineering, improvement of financial health, introduction of innovative products among others, sources said.
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,300
0.05
3,44,624
7,80,880
NIFTY
CE
11,000
50
2,39,108
39,08,550
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,400
0.05
1,90,164
6,25,720
ICICIBANK
CE
320
11.5
6,811
35,33,750
RELIANCE
CE
1,200
17.6
6,241
15,06,000
RELIANCE
CE
1,240 10.25
5,398
12,72,000
ICICIBANK
CE
330
7.3
5,120
33,55,000
ICICIBANK
CE
340
4.45
4,830
24,72,250
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
PE
BANKNIFTY
L&T Financial Holding board meeting on October 8 to consider raising of funds NCD worth Rs 250 crore
Coal India: Provisional production of AprilSeptember 2018 at 256.47 million tonne versus 231.88 million tonne YoY (up 10.6 percent) and Offtake at 290.81 million tonne versus 269 million tonne YoY (up 8.1 percent).
NIFTY FUTURE
2,83,500
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
24,500
0.1
15,00,424
10,82,000
PE
24,600
0.05
13,25,535
8,26,400
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,700
0.05
11,71,528
RELIANCE
PE
1,100
41
6,431
ICICIBANK
PE
300
7.65
4,107
RELIANCE
PE
1,140
61.8
4,072
YESBANK
PE
200
11.5
3,270
RELIANCE
PE
1,000
12.7
3,109
The Nifty50 after gap down opening extended losses as 12,53,760 the day progressed and broke the 10,900 levels in last 9,61,000 hour of trade. The index closed 259 points lower at 10,858.30 and formed strong bearish candle on the daily 17,49,000 charts. If it doesn't stabilise around its 200-day EMA of 5,21,000 10,785 levels then more selling pressure is likely so we 20,17,750 advice to sell nifty future around 10850-30 for the targets of 10780-10700 with stoploss above 10920. 6,14,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
48292
4293.45
57572
4992.99
INDEX OPTIONS
1590074
153317.75
1606494
STOCK FUTURES
232775
14339.67
STOCK OPTIONS
92503
6142.19
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
227816
18494.99
-699.5407
154675.08
771920
65980.73
-1357.3261
229166
14389.22
1225791
83525.17
-49.5496
91497
6095.12
67601
4491.89
47.0728 -2059.3436
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
10840.00
10719.00
10633.00
10512.00
10426.00
BANKNIFTY
25129.00
24974.00
24737.00
24582.00
24345.00
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD DEC FUT ABOVE 31570 TGT 31620 31670 SL BELOW 31520 SELL GOLD DEC FUT BELOW 31200 TGT 31150 31100 SL ABOVE 31250
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER DEC FUT 39330 TGT 39380 39420 SL BELOW 39280 SELL SILVER DEC FUT 38800 TGT 38750 38700 SL ABOVE 38850
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9200 TGT 9250 9300 SL BELOW 9150 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9150 TARGET 9100-9050 SL 9200
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1794 4644 4192 4872 1672 4251
0.65 -0.17 2 0.43 2.26 -0.42
18825
0.27
4142 3219 6814
0.02 1.64 1.28
Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA OCT FUT ABOVE 4900 TGT 4950 5000 SL BELOW 4850 SELL DHANIYA OCT FUT BELOW 4800 TARGET 4750-4700 SL 4850
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
73.7509 Yen
64.4900
Euro
84.6257 GBP
95.3904
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 74.10 TGT 74.50 75.00 SL BELOW 73.70 SELL USDINR BELOW 73.50 TGT 73.00 72.50 SL ABOVE 74.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.50 TGT 97.00 98.00 SL BELOW 96.00 SELL GBPINR BELOW 95.50 TGT 95.00 94.50 SL ABOVE 96.00
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
04/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
BUY
04/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
04/10/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
04/10/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
4950
4980 5010
4920
NOT EXECUTED
SELL
4830
4800-4770
4860
OPEN
OCT
BUY
9260
9300 9350
9200
NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9220
9170-9120
9270
TARGET HIT
04/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
30550
30600 30650
30500
SL TRIGGERED
04/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
30400
30350 30300
30450
TARGET HIT
04/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
38700
38750 38800
38650
SL TRIGGERED
04/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
38510
38450 38400
38550
TARGET HIT
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
04/10/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
10980-60
11150-11200
10900
SL TRIGGERED
04/10/18
BAJFINANCE
FUTURE
BUY
2170-2180
2210-2240
2145
TARGET HIT
04/10/18
INFY
FUTURE
BUY
746-750
760-770
740
SL TRIGGERED
04/10/18
GRANULES
CASH
BUY
96-97
100-105
94
TARGET HIT
Entry Level
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Special Report 05-Oct-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
55.6
0.3%
0.1%
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
16.9 mln
16.7 mln
MONDAY, OCT. 1 9:45 am
Markit manufacturing PMI
Sept. 10 am
10 am
Construction spending
Aug.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
Varies
Motor vehicle sales
Sept.
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3 8:15 am
ADP employment
Sept.
--
163,000
9:45 am
Markit services PMI
Sept.
--
52.9
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
10 am THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 4 Y, OCT. 4
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/27
210,000
214,000
10 am
Factory orders
Aug.
1.9%
-0.8%
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
8:30 am 8:30 am
Unemployment rate
Sept.
3.8%
3.9%
8:30 am
Average hourly earnings
Sept.
0.3%
0.4%
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