Special Report 09-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell on Monday for the third straight day as a sell-off in Chinese markets sparked concerns about slowing global economic growth, though the S&P 500 pared losses to end nearly flat. Beijing announced a steep cut in the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves, aimed at lowering financing costs and spurring growth amid the trade spat. In Monday's trading session, the first trading session for mainland China investors since new US and Chinese tariffs went into effect, both Chinese stocks and the yuan slid. Asian shares hit 17-month lows on Tuesday as investors fretted about everything from the Chinese economy, to trade wars, higher US bond yields and political dysfunction in Europe."Risk sentiment is in a foul mood and stocks are sinking everywhere," said analysts at JPMorgan in a note. "The reasons are myriad and many are a continuation of recent overhangs."MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased another 0.15 percent after ending Monday at its lowest point since May last year.Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1 percent as it resumed from a one-day holiday, hurt in part by a rise in the safe-harbour yen.Eyes were again on China, where blue chips shed 4.3 percent on Monday in the largest daily drop since early 2016. While the stock market in China is far from a reliable gauge of economic activity, sharp falls do spill over into sentiment across the region. Previous day Roundup The Nifty ended the volatile session in green with gains of 31 points on Monday making a ‘Hammer’ like pattern on the daily charts. The Nifty closed in green after shedding around 600 points in the last 4 sessions. The Nifty bounced back from its crucial support placed at 10,200 levels. It reclaimed 10,300 levels on closing basis and now as long as it holds above this level, the bounce should take the Nifty towards 10,420, and 10,500 levels. India VIX moved up by 2.12 percent at 20.15 levels but it slipped from its intraday swing high of 21.77 levels. Overall, higher volatility suggests a bear grip but a cool off in VIX with a topping out formation could form a short-term bottom in the market. Technically, the crucial resistance is now placed at 10,50011,000 levels and pullback towards the said level might face extensive selling pressure. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-0.05], Consumption[3.30pts],Bank[174.90pts],Auto [54.00pts],FinService[-40.95pts],Fmcg[-168.00pts],Media[23.10pts],Pharma[-41.55pts],IT[-286.45pts],Metal[105.20pts],Realty[-6.70 pts], Pvt Bank[128.75pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,486.75
0.15
S&P500
2,890.00
-0.13
NASDAQ
7,735.95
-0.67
FTSE100
7,233.33
-1.18
23,480.86 26,295.68
-1.29 0.35
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
HPCL
179.20
14.10
8.54
Yes Bank
221.20
15.20
7.38
Reliance
1,109.40
60.55
5.77
Kotak Mahindra
1,104.30
52.10
4.95
Hero Motocorp
2,873.05
132.30
4.83
CMP
Change
% Chg
206.75 222.55 694.90 317.50 1,667.70
-24.90 -18.50 -19.60 -7.80 -40.95
-10.75 -7.67 -2.74 -2.40 -2.40
Top Losers Company
Vedanta Hindalco Tech Mahindra Wipro HDFC
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AAVAS
821
21
2.8
AIONJSW
41.3
2.05
4.96
JAINSTUDIO
6.05
0.3
4.96
LIQUIDETF
999.99
0.02
0
N100
650.81
5.08
0.78
0.8
0.05
6.25
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
26.75 155.95 821 76.95 107.8
-0.5 -7.75 21 -3.95 -3.25
-1.87 -4.97 2.8 -5.13 -3.01
PRAKASHSTL
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES AAVAS ABAN ABCAPITAL
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10348.00
31.50
0.31
SENSEX
34474.38
97.39
0.28
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. EXIDEIND [FUTURE ] This particular counter has made a doji at the support level of 246.50 around its 200 SMA, today it may rebound from its specified support level here buy on dip would be a good strategy to follow so we advice you to buy exideind future around 246.50-247 tgt 250-253 sl below 244.
2. TATAGLOBAL [FUTURE] The partiuclar counter is showing a tendency to rebound from its resistance level of 218,today if its resist at this level then we can get a opportunity of sell on high so we advice to sell tataglobal around 211-210 for the targets of 205-200 with stoploss above 214.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] MANAPPURAM [CASH] With multiple bearish candles the resistances and supports of the particular stock are shifting downside so we advice to sell it around 65-66 for the targets of 62-58 with stoploss above 68.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a falt to negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 10 points or 0.1 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,357level on the Singaporean Exchange. The country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.265 billion to $400.52 billion in the week to September 28 due to a fall in foreign currency assets, according to RBI data. In the previous week, the reserves had risen by $1.3 billion to $401.790 billion.In the reporting week, foreign currency assets, a major component of the overall reserves, declined by $1.169 billion to $376.243 billion, as per the data. The rupee slidded by 18 paise to finish at a fresh lifetime low of 73.76 against the US dollar on October 5 after the RBI unexpectedly kept the policy rate unchanged. The domestic unit crashed below the 74mark for the first time ever in intra-day trade on persistent capital outflows and high crude oil prices.It recovered to a high of 73.42, but failed to sustain the momentum and plunged to 74.23 after RBI's policy announcement. It finally closed at 73.76, down by 18 paise or 0.24 percent, marking its fourth straight session of decline. The Centre is planning to move its disinvestment programme overseas with an exchange traded fund (ETF), according to a report by The Times of India.
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
JMC Projects: secures orders worth Rs 514 crore
Coal India: Provisional production of AprilSeptember 2018 at 256.47 million tonne versus 231.88 million tonne YoY (up 10.6 percent) and Offtake at 290.81 million tonne versus 269 million tonne YoY (up 8.1 percent).
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,500
18.5
2,59,899
7,96,440
NIFTY
CE
10,800
28.4
2,53,902
28,68,000
NIFTY
CE
11,000
13.4
2,36,073
44,98,275 NIFTY FUTURE
RELIANCE
CE
1,200
6.6
6,428
23,30,000
RELIANCE
CE
1,140
14.6
4,796
8,40,000
RELIANCE
CE
1,160 10.95
4,784
8,49,000
ICICIBANK
CE
6.2
4,347
23,26,500
RELIANCE
CE
1,100 25.35
3,834
7,90,000
320
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
2,83,500
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,000
192
2,38,647
3,99,160
NIFTY
PE
10,500 309.9
1,79,906
36,09,975
BANKNIFTY
PE
24,500
412
1,62,371
1,86,960
RELIANCE
PE
1,000
24
5,777
9,90,000
RELIANCE
PE
1,100
71
4,066
7,75,000
RELIANCE
PE
1,040
39.9
3,997
6,80,000
RELIANCE
PE
1,060
47.5
3,880
4,09,000
ICICIBANK
PE
300
11
3,436
15,95,000
The Nifty ended the volatile session in green with gains of 31 points on Monday making a ‘Hammer’ like pattern on the daily charts. The Nifty closed in green after shedding around 600 points in the last 4 sessions. The Nifty bounced back from its crucial support placed at 10,200 levels. It reclaimed 10,300 levels on closing basis and now as long as it holds above this level, the bounce should take the Nifty towards 10,420, and 10,500 levels .so we advice you to sell nifty future around 10400 -390 for the targets of 10300-10200 with stoploss above 10470.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
62438
5358.31
82771
6968.39
INDEX OPTIONS
1216674
108139.37
1199591
STOCK FUTURES
296188
17671.45
STOCK OPTIONS
115728
8041.98
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
277836
21525.32
-1610.0795
106696.47
920397
73837.30
1442.9004
297297
17551.95
1268731
81999.84
119.5037
115103
7973.24
86410
5669.77
68.7334 21.058
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
10514.00
10431.00
10314.00
10231.00
10114.00
BANKNIFTY
25039.00
24828.00
24534.00
24323.00
24029.00
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD DEC FUT ABOVE 31570 TGT 31620 31670 SL BELOW 31520 SELL GOLD DEC FUT BELOW 31200 TGT 31150 31100 SL ABOVE 31250
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER DEC FUT 39330 TGT 39380 39420 SL BELOW 39280 SELL SILVER DEC FUT 38800 TGT 38750 38700 SL ABOVE 38850
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9050 TGT 9100 9150 SL BELOW 9000 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 8990 TARGET 8950-8900 SL 9040
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1789 4710 4178 4925 1710.5 4184
-0.42 1.2 -1.11 1.78 0.26 -1.03
Jeera
19560
1.9
4092 3206 6850
-0.61 -1.05 -1.38
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA OCT FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 5000 5050 SL BELOW 4900 SELL DHANIYA OCT FUT BELOW 4800 TARGET 4750-4700 SL 4850
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
73.9235 Yen
64.9600
Euro
85.0613 GBP
96.8575
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 74.50 TGT 75.00 75.50 SL BELOW 74.00 SELL USDINR BELOW 73.50 TGT 73.00 72.50 SL ABOVE 74.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 97.10 TGT 97.50 98.00 SL BELOW 96.60 SELL GBPINR BELOW 95.50 TGT 95.00 94.50 SL ABOVE 96.00
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
08/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
BUY
08/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
08/10/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
08/10/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
4900
4950 5000
4850
TARGET HIT
SELL
4800
4750-4700
4850
NOT EXECUTED
OCT
BUY
9200
9250 9300
9150
NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9150
9100-9050
9200
NOT EXECUTED
08/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
31570
31620 31670
31520
NOT EXECUTED
08/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
31200
31150 31100
08/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
38700
38750 38800
38650
SL TRIGGERED
08/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
38510
38450 38400
38550
TARGET HIT
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
08/10/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
10850-30
10780-10700
10920
NOT EXECUTED
08/10/18
RELIANCE
FUTURE
BUY
1030-1028
1040-50
1022
TARGET HIT
08/10/18
IRB
FUTURE
SELL
125-124
120-116
128
TARGET HIT
08/10/18
PCJEWELLERS
CASH
SELL
65-66
62-58
68
NOT EXECUTED
Entry Level
31250
NOT EXECUTED
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Special Report 09-Oct-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
108.8
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 10
WEDNESDAY , OCT. 10
0.2%
-0.1%
THURSDAY, OCT. 11
THURSDAY, OCT. 11
206,000
207,000
MONDAY, OCT. 8 None scheduled Columbus Day TUESDAY, OCT. 9 6 am
NFIB small-business index
WEDNESDA Y, OCT. 10
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 10
8:30 am
Producer price index
Sept. WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, OCT. AY, OCT. 10 10 Sept. 10 am
THURSDAY, OCT. 11
THURSDAY, OCT. 11
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 11 Y, OCT. 11 10/6 8:30 am
8:30 am
Core CPI
Sept.
0.2%
0.1%
2pm
Federal budget
Sept.
--
$8 bln
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
8:30 am
Import price index
Sept.
--
-0.6%
10 am
Consumer sentiment index
Oct.
100.6
100.1
FRIDAY, OCT. 12
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