Special Report 10 –APR -2019
Global markets at a glance Trade-sensitive industrials dragged Wall Street lower on Tuesday as tensions over tariffs between the United States and its European trading partners went from simmer to boil and the IMF lowered its global growth outlook. All three major US stock indexes finished the session in the red, with the S&P 500 ending its eight-day rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190.44 points, or 0.72 percent, to 26,150.58, the S&P 500 lost 17.57 points, or 0.61 percent, to 2,878.2 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 44.61 points, or 0.56 percent, to 7,909.28 Asian shares stepped back from eight-month highs on Wednesday as the IMF lowered its global growth outlook and as tensions over tariffs between the United States and Europe escalated.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.1 percent, a day after it hit eight-month highs while Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.9 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 33 points or 0.28 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,717-level on the Singaporean Exchange. Oil prices edged back towards five-month highs on Wednesday, supported by ongoing supply cuts by producer club OPEC and US sanctions against oil.International benchmark Brent futures were at USD 70.83 per barrel at 0056 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets showed resilience, recovering entire loses of the last trading session.Nifty & Bank Nifty posted strong gains led by ICICI Bank, closing ~2.5% higher. Nifty Private Bank index outperformed the benchmark index by ~0.5%. Yes Bank was among the top F&O gainers, adding fresh long positions.Nifty Midcap 50 index underperformed the benchmark index as market breadth ended in the favour of the declines with advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1x Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+21.05pts], Consumption[+12.10ts],PSE[+24pts],CPSE [+23.15pts],Energy[+84.95pts],FMCG[+214.8pts],Auto [+96.50pts],Pharma[+89.40pts],IT[+93.35pts],Metal[+31.95 pts],Realty[+3.80pts], Fin Serv sector[+64.05pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
DJI
26150
-0.72
S&P500
2892
+0.46
NASDAQ
7909
-0.56
FTSE100
7425
-0.35
21659 30030
-0.66 -0.42
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Yes Bank
270.6
10.55
4.06
Wipro
273.8
10.1
3.83
Tata Motors
205.9
5.35
2.67
ICICI Bank
397.15
10.05
2.6
Bajaj Auto
2,924.80
71.45
2.5
CMP
Change
% Chg
1,444.85 Asian Paints 831.75 Indiabulls Hsg 351.6 Bharti Airtel 760.6 Infosys 1,098.55 Titan Company Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
-51.5
-3.44
-27.6
-3.21
-3.35
-0.94
-6.65
-0.87
-5.85
-0.53
Top Losers Company
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
BALAXI
53.25
2.5
4.93
4.45
0.2
4.71
HDFC
2,073.00
12.1
0.59
ICICIGI
1,079.00
25.9
2.47
773
-6.45
-0.84
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ANGIND
0.85
0
0
ATNINTER
0.05
-0.05
-50
CANDC DNAMEDIA GEMINI
9.2 1 0.15
-0.4 -0.05 0
-4.15 -4.76 0
BILENERGY
INFY
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
11671
+67.45
+0.58
SENSEX
38939
+238
+0.62
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. HAVELLS [FUTURE ]
INFY
HAVELLS — Stock is trading in channel line & Hammer pattern form on daily chart . Stock is al;so taking a support of trend line .RSI & MACD also indicating Buying in this stock .Our recommendation is to Buy stock future in the range 767 Target 770-775 maintain sl below 764
INFOSYS — Stock is taking a support of trendline on weekly chart & also forming a Cup & Handle . Quarterly result of company is on April 12,2019. Our recommendation is to Buy Infosys 760-762 Target 770/780 maintain Sl below 750. Market expectation from company is high on revenue front as we compare with its peers like TCS , HCL Tech .
2. PVR [FUTURE] PVR — On weekly chart stock giveen breakout & created bullish hammer candle stick pattern .Our view on the technical basis is to buy stock future in range 1698 Target 1706/1720 Sl below 1690. Stock is moving above all its important moving averages like 50,100 & 200 DEMA.
MACRO NEWS
President Donald Trump said April 9 he'll put tariffs on USD 11 billion worth European Union cheese, wine and other goods to retaliate for what Washington says are improper subsidies to Airbus. The office of the US trade representative late Monday released a preliminary list of EU goods facing additional duties that includes everything from aircraft and aircraft parts to cheese, wine and olives. The list is subject to public comment in anticipation of an expected World Trade Organization ruling this summer that would be favorable to the U.S. in a pending arbitration case.
The government has managed to meet the revised fiscal deficit target of 3.4 per cent of the GDP after it cut last minute expenditure and rolled over fuelsubsidies to make up for the shortfall in tax collection. The interim Budget presented in February revised upward the fiscal deficit target to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent of GDP estimated earlier for 201819.According to sources, the revised target has been met with the help of expenditure savings and other measures including the rollover of the fuel subsidy. As a result.
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,000 299.9
7,32,290
4,98,760
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,100 227.6
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,200 169.9
ASHOKLEY
CE
95
2
RELIANCE
CE
1,400
15.3
RELIANCE
CE
1,360
28.4
TCS
CE
2,100
57.7
YESBANK
CE
280
9.25
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 MOST
Avenue Supermarts: Company raised Rs 50 crore via 1,99,700 commercial papers. 6,00,244 4,95,680 Ashok Leyland: Promoter pledged 1.33 percent stake in 8,339 70,48,000 the company. 8,041 24,92,000 7,284 12,95,000 NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On weekly chart Nifty close with green candle,during this week nifty was traded in a 6,816 7,14,750 brode range of 235 points. On Nifty we may expect 6,598 67,44,500 new all time high will see before starting first phase of election April 17,2019 . In last week FII infuse more than 5,823 2,83,500 6000 cr & selling by DII in cash Rs 435 cr, which was less Traded Open as we compare to last week data . After analysis of data Volume Interest suggest that 11500-11600 work as support & OI addtion (Contracts) seen in 11700-11800 works as resistance . Our 6,24,706 4,66,320 recommendation is to Buy Nifty 50 in the range 117005,64,496 6,48,480 11750 Target 11800/11900 SL below 11600. 6,72,688
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
PE
29,700
BANKNIFTY
PE
29,800 48.55
BANKNIFTY
PE
29,500
20.7
5,51,118
6,62,280
RELIANCE
PE
1,300
14
5,272
10,37,500
RELIANCE
PE
1,320
20.5
4,570
8,23,500
TATASTEEL
PE
540
7.1
4,411
5,15,646
TATAMOTORS PE
200
4.15
3,497
32,26,000
IBULHSGFIN
800
28.2
3,293
7,42,000
PE
LTP
35
Info Edge: Company has invested through its whollyowned subsidiary Rs 6 crore in Bizcrum Infotech Private Ltd.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts
SELL Amount in Crores
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
32133
2502.42
37841
2714.04
240280
19178.40
-211.6197
INDEX OPTIONS
2541036
169965.85
2535145
169579.99
892864
70118.52
385.8576
STOCK FUTURES
179575
11091.11
182036
11319.09
1383520
89865.34
-227.9867
STOCK OPTIONS
93826
5794.49
93730
5774.43
109361
6870.88
20.0653 -33.6835
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11756
11714
11641
11599
11527
BANKNIFTY
30455
30284
29994
29823
29532
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: GOLD BUY ABOVE 32155 Target 32200/32250 Sl 32050 GOLD SELL BELOW 32000 Target 31950/31900 Sl 32100
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver Buy Above 38500 Target 38500/38600 Sl 38400 Silver Sell Below 38450 Target 38400/38300 Sl 38550
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices rose to a more than a one-week peak on Monday as the dollar slipped on slow U.S. wage growth last month and a rally in equities stalled, boosting bullion's appeal.Spot gold XAU= gained 0.4 percent to $1,297.02 per ounce by 1019 GMT, having earlier touched its highest since March 29 at $1,297.86.U.S. gold futures GCv1 were up 0.4 percent at $1,300.8 an ounce."The market is just getting a little bit of confidence back after once again failing to break lower last week," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen."We've got a weaker dollar, China buying another chunk of gold last month continues to show that the physical underlying demand and renewed fighting in Libya is just raising the geopolitical temperature," Hansen said, adding gold was once again potentially challenging the $1,300 level. A rally in stocks that has capped gold's gains recently paused, while the dollar .DXYwas down 0.2 percent against key rivals, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. USD/ MKTS/GLOB.Data on Friday showed employment growth in the U.S. accelerated from a 17month low in March, assuaging fears of an abrupt slowdown in economic activity, but a moderation in wage gains supported the Federal Reserve's decision to suspend further interest rate rises this year. raised its gold reserves by 0.6 percent to 60.62 million ounces by end-March, central bank data showed. at around $1,280, the lowest seen so far this year (for gold), appear to be generating buying interest on the market and preventing prices from sliding any further," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note."The technically important 100-day moving average held firm late last week, as it did in early March, thereby lending support to the price."Holdings in the world's largest gold-backemuch as 3 percent in the previous week, its biggest weekly percentage decline since end-November 2016. GOL/ETFSpeculators slashed their bullish bets in COMEX gold in the week to April 2, data showed on Friday. Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on Monday, driven by OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and fighting in Libya as well as strong U.S. jobs data.International benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 were at $70.66 per barrel at 1000 GMT on Monday, up 32 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close. exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust GLD , fell as U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1were up 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $63.38 per barrel.
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 8955 TGT 8985/9045/9095 SL BELOW 8905 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8909 TGT 8790/8730/8680 SL ABOVE 8870
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 7167 TGT 7182/7242/7312 SL BELOW 7137 SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 7015 TGT 7000/6940/6870 SL ABOVE 7075
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
4100 6268 1936 4146.5 15440
-0.46 -1.72 -1.14 0.33 0.03
Jeera
3840
-0.42
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
3637 6238 6148
-0.55 0.64 0.29
Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
In March 2019, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator fell by 3.1 per cent to 97.50 US cents per pound, the lowest monthly average since October 2006, when the price was 95.53 US cents per pound.The ICO reports that price movements for all group indicators have fallen, contributing to the low composite indicator.Prices for Brazilian Naturals decreased 4.2 per cent to 95.81 US cents per pound, which is the lowest price for this group since July 2006.Colombian Minds declined 2.1 per cent to 125.23 US cents per pound with Other Minds fell 3.6 per cent to 123.89 US cents per pound.On the production side, Central America and Mexico is estimated to decline 0.5 per cent to 21.72 million bags, accounting for the fall in Other Milds group exports this coffee year.Similarly, output in Asia and Oceania is estimated to decrease two per cent to 48.18 million bags, due to lower than expected yields.Vietnam’s exports in February 2019 fell 22.7 per cent to 1.7 million bags compared to February 2018. The ICO reveals that Africa’s production is to remain stable at 17.74 million bags, which is an increase of 1.4 per cent. This reflected growth is due to its shipments in the first five months of coffee year 2018/19, which doubled to 617,241 bags, reflecting the ample supply of coffee on the international market.World production in coffee year 2018/19 is estimated at 168.05 million bags while consumption is estimated at 164.99 million bags, creating a surplus of 3.06 million bags. This follows a surplus of 4.16 million bags in coffee year 2017/18.Prospects of a large offyear crop from Brazil and increased exports in each month of 2018/19 compared to the previous year are contributing to the sustained low prices.
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rupee- $
69.51 Yen
62.5250
78.5625 GBP
90.9750
Euro
Rate
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.6 TGT 69.7/69.8 SL BELOW 69.4 SELL USDINR BELOW 69.4 TGT 69.3/69.2 SL ABOVE 69.6
GBP/IN TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91.3 TGT 91.4/91.5 SL BELOW 91.10 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.9 TGT 90.8/90.7 SL ABOVE 91.10
While the trade optimism pushed the dollar lower against most Asian currencies, it helped erase the greenback's earlier losses against the safe-haven yen JPY= , which followed U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism about Federal Reserve monetary policy and a strong dollar. dollar traded at 111.96 yen JPY= , near a 10-week high of 112.08 on Friday. It had dipped to 111.75 yen after Trump's comments on the Fed. have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar at the Fed...I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that's great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations," he told his supporters in a speech. The rupee on Tuesday recovered from the day's low to finally settle at 68.74 against the US dollar with gains of 40 paise amid sustained foreign fund inflows and heavy buying in domestic equities. Forex dealers said foreign fund inflows in the debt and equity markets helped the rupee recover. At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex), the domestic currency opened lower at 69.32 a dollar but recovered the losses during the day and touched the day's high of 68.70. It finally settled at 68.74 per dollar, up 40 paise over its previous close.A panel of economists, including former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Virmani, Tuesday called for at least 0.25 percentage point rate cut in the RBI's first monetary policy of the current fiscal to be unveiled later this week. Virmani said that it is for the RBI to understand that the real interest rate in India right now is very high."It is high time time to ease monetary policy," Virmani said during a panel discussion on RBI monetary policy organised by Assocham-EGROW Foundation. Ashima Goyal, Professor of Economics, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research and Member, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, and Upasana Bhardwaj, Senior Economist, Vice President Kotak Mahindra Bank, also participated in the discussion.
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
09/04/19
NCDEX DHANIYA
APR
BUY
7316
09/04/19
NCDEX DHANIYA
APR
Sell
09/04/19
NCDEX GUARGUM5
APR
09/04/19
NCDEX GUARGUM5
09/04/19
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Stop Loss
Remark
7331/7391/7461
7286
NOT EXECUTED
7144
7129/7069/6999
7174
TARGET
BUY
9020
9050/9110/9160
8970
NOT EXECUTED
APR
SELL
8909
8879/8819/8769
8959
TARGET
MCX GOLD
JUN
BUY
32155
32200/32250
32050
SL HIT
09/04/19
MCX GOLD
JUN
SELL
32000
31950/31900
32100
NOT EXECUTED
09/04/19
MCX SILVER
JUL
BUY
38500
38550/38600
38400
TARGET
09/04/19
MCX SILVER
JUL
SELL
38450
38400/38300
38550
TARGET
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
Target
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION
09/04/19
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
11700-11750
11800/11900
10900
TARGET
09/04/19
JINDAL STEEL
FUTURE
BUY
185-187
190-195
182
SL HIT
09/04/19
KSCL
FUTURE
BUY
475
480
460
NOT EXECUTED
09/04/19
REPOHOME
CASH
BUY
465
470/490
460
NOT EXECUTED
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
TIME (ET)
PER ACTUAL IOD
REPORT
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, APRIL 8
Factory orders* (new date)
Feb .
0.1%
6 am
NFIB small business index
Ma rch
101.7
10 am
Job openings
Feb .
7.6 mln
10 am TUESDAY, APRIL 9
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10
8:30 am
Consumer price index
Ma rch
0.2%
8:30 am
Core CPI
Ma rch
0.1%
2 pm
FOMC minutes
9:45 am 2 pm 9:45 am
Markit manufacturing index flash Federal budget Markit services index flash
Nov. Nov.
-Ma rch --
55.7
--
54.8
-$125bln
THURSDAY, APRIL 11
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
4/6
--
8:30 am
Producer price index
Ma rch
0.1%
8:30 am
Import price index
Ma rch
0.6%
10 am
Consumer sentiment index
Apr il
98.4
FRIDAY, APRIL 12
*DELAYED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
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Special Report 10 –APR -2019
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Sachi n Yadav
Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-04-10 09:20+05:30
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