Special Report 11 –APR -2019
Global markets at a glance
World Indices
Technology stocks led Wall Street slightly higher on Wednesday, as US inflation data proved to be benign and the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting were unsurprising.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.58 points, or 0.03 percent, to 26,157.16, the S&P 500 gained 10.01 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,888.21, and the Nasdaq Composite added 54.97 points, or 0.69 percent, to 7,964.24.
Index
Value
% Change
DJI
26157
+0.03
S&P500
2888
+0.35
NASDAQ
7964
+0.69
FTSE100
7421
-0.05
21627 29822
-0.28 -0.99
Asian stocks held near eight-month highs on Thursday and the dollar slipped again on expectations global interest rates will stay lower for longer after a dovish turn by the European Central Bank and milder than expected US inflation.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan paused after four straight days of gains but held near its highest since last August. Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.2 percent as the yen strengthened.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 17.5 points or 0.15 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,669-level on the Singaporean Exchange.
Top Gainers
PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF
Bharti Airtel Hindalco TCS Asian Paints HDFC Bank
Indian equity markets continued to remain volatile, shedding yesterday’s gain as both Nifty and Bank Nifty posted a sharp sell-off in closing hour of the trade.Major heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints closed at intraday lows, shedding 2-3% backed by a buildup of heavy short positions. Nifty midcap 50 index outperformed the benchmark index. Market breadth ended in the favour of the declines with advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1xNifty and Bank Nifty futures added fresh open interest, indicating marginal build -up of short positions. On the options front (April 11, 2019 expiry), across the board unwinding of short positions in put option strikes was seen with Nifty 11600PE shedding 5.13 lakh shares in open positions.
NIKKEI HANG SENG Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Tata Motors
216.05
10.15
4.93
Cipla
546.45
14.45
2.72
281
7.2
2.63
HUL
1,694.15
13.65
0.81
IOC
156.6
1.2
0.77
CMP
Change
% Chg
340 211.7 2,040.25 1,409.85 2,237.35
-11.6 -5.45 -51.25 -35 -49.9
-3.3 -2.51 -2.45 -2.42 -2.18
Wipro
Top Losers Company
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
BALAXI
55.9
2.65
4.98
BILENERGY
4.65
0.2
4.49
24,245.00
927.35
3.98
1,097.00
23.9
2.23
65.75
4.2
7.02
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ANGIND
0.85
0.05
5.88
ATNINTER
0.05
0
0
CANDC DNAMEDIA GANDHITUBE
8.75 0.95 333
0.4 0 -4
4.35 0 -1.15
HONAUT ICICIGI J&KBANK
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-17.5pts], Consumption[-16.5ts],PSE[-5.75pts],CPSE[-0.55pts],Energy [-41.35pts],FMCG[-24.30pts],Auto[+21.7pts],Pharma [+74.60pts],IT[-122.45pts],Metal[-28.45pts],Realty [+3.10pts], Fin Serv sector[-141.45pts].
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
11584
-87.7
-0.57
SENSEX
38585
-353
-0.91
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. HAVELLS [FUTURE ]
INFY
HAVELLS — Stock is trading in channel line & Hammer pattern form on daily chart . Stock is al;so taking a support of trend line .RSI & MACD also indicating Buying in this stock .Our recommendation is to Buy stock future in the range 767 Target 770-775 maintain sl below 764
INFOSYS — Stock is taking a support of trendline on weekly chart & also forming a Cup & Handle . Quarterly result of company is on April 12,2019. Our recommendation is to Buy Infosys 760-762 Target 770/780 maintain Sl below 750. Market expectation from company is high on revenue front as we compare with its peers like TCS , HCL Tech .
2. PVR [FUTURE] PVR — On weekly chart stock giveen breakout & created bullish hammer candle stick pattern .Our view on the technical basis is to buy stock future in range 1698 Target 1706/1720 Sl below 1690. Stock is moving above all its important moving averages like 50,100 & 200 DEMA.
MACRO NEWS
The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this year given risks to the US economy from a global slowdown and uncertainty over trade policies and financial conditions, according to the minutes from its March 19-20 policy meeting. The US central bank pivoted abruptly at that meeting to a much-less aggressive posture, and the minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers agreed to be “patient” about making any moves on rates.“A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,” according to the minutes.
The mutual fund closed the year with an 11,41 percent rise in their total assets under management at Rs 23.80 lakh crore in the year to March, from Rs 21.36 lakh crore in the previous year, according to the industry data released Wednesday. On a monthly basis, AUM grew 2.73 percent from Rs 23.16 lakh crore in February.
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,200
20.5
8,60,095
7,44,580
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,300
12.5
BANKNIFTY
CE
30,500
6
TATAMOTORS CE
220
6.3
TATAMOTORS CE
210
11.3
CE
2,300
20.9
TATAMOTORS CE
240
1.6
2,100
40.4
HDFCBANK TCS
CE
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 MOST
Avenue Supermarts: Company raised Rs 50 crore via 8,72,660 commercial papers. 7,24,686 9,68,220 Ashok Leyland: Promoter pledged 1.33 percent stake in 12,017 42,70,000 the company. 8,222 38,46,000 7,181 6,08,500 NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On weekly chart Nifty close with green candle,during this week nifty was traded in a 6,636 28,88,000 brode range of 235 points. first phase of election April 6,439 10,17,750 17,2019 . In last week FII infuse more than 6000 cr & selling by DII in cash Rs 435 cr, which was less as we 5,823 2,83,500 compare to last week data . AfterOn Nifty we may Traded Open expect new all time high will see before starting analysis Volume Interest of data suggest that 11500-11600 work as support & OI (Contracts) addtion seen in 11700-11800 works as resistance . Our 8,42,980 5,87,160 recommendation is to Buy Nifty 50 in the range 114507,63,943 3,82,080 11500 Target 11550/11600 SL below 11350. 8,35,705
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
PE
29,800
89
BANKNIFTY
PE
30,000
210
BANKNIFTY
PE
29,900
141
7,47,792
2,46,620
TATAMOTORS PE
200
2.4
5,249
47,04,000
PE
2,240
27.7
4,960
4,56,250
TATAMOTORS PE
210
4.8
4,816
24,40,000
HDFCBANK
LTP
Info Edge: Company has invested through its whollyowned subsidiary Rs 6 crore in Bizcrum Infotech Private Ltd.
RELIANCE
PE
1,320
22.8
4,058
8,33,000
HDFCBANK
PE
2,260 38.05
3,531
1,67,750
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts
SELL Amount in Crores
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
32133
2502.42
37841
2714.04
240280
19178.40
-211.6197
INDEX OPTIONS
2541036
169965.85
2535145
169579.99
892864
70118.52
385.8576
STOCK FUTURES
179575
11091.11
182036
11319.09
1383520
89865.34
-227.9867
STOCK OPTIONS
93826
5794.49
93730
5774.43
109361
6870.88
20.0653 -33.6835
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11720
11652
11612
11544
11503
BANKNIFTY
30296
30050
29909
29662
29521
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: GOLD BUY ABOVE 32155 Target 32200/32250 Sl 32050 GOLD SELL BELOW 32000 Target 31950/31900 Sl 32100
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver Buy Above 38500 Target 38500/38600 Sl 38400 Silver Sell Below 38450 Target 38400/38300 Sl 38550
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold held steady near a two-week high on Wednesday as world equities retreated after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's March meeting.Spot gold XAU= was unchanged at $1,304.35 an ounce at 1009 GMT, having touched its highest since March 28 on Tuesday at $1,306.09. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were flat at $1,308.50. "It (gold) seems to be very much stuck at the moment ... part of the issue is most of the developments haven't really been much of a surprise to the market," said Capital Economics analyst Ross Strachan, adding that the growth downgrade by the IMF was also widely anticipated.Gold was also supported by central bank purchases and a significant move lower in U.S. equity markets will boost prices, Strachan said.The IMF had said on Tuesday that the global economy is slowing more than expected and a sharp downturn could require world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures. banks around the world were increasing their gold stockpiles, with China raising its reserves for a fourth straight month in March. is widely viewed as a safe investment during times of political and economic uncertainty. Oil prices rose on Wednesday back towards five-month highs hit the previous day as OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela continued to tighten supply, although economic worries increased.International benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 were at $70.92 per barrel at 0900 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.44 percent, from their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 oil futures were at $64.33 per barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.55 percent, from their last settlement. Oil markets have tightened this year because of U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by around 30 percent and 40 percent respectively since the start of the year.The global oil market is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to OPEC+ production cuts," ING bank said.
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 9050 TGT 9080/9140/9190 SL BELOW 9000 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8909 TGT 8879/8819/8769 SL ABOVE 8959
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 7189 TGT 7204/7264/7334 SL BELOW 7159 SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 6965 TGT 6950/6890/6820 SL ABOVE 6995
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
4100 6268 1936 4146.5 15440
-0.46 -1.72 -1.14 0.33 0.03
Jeera
3840
-0.42
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
3637 6238 6148
-0.55 0.64 0.29
Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
In March 2019, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator fell by 3.1 per cent to 97.50 US cents per pound, the lowest monthly average since October 2006, when the price was 95.53 US cents per pound.The ICO reports that price movements for all group indicators have fallen, contributing to the low composite indicator.Prices for Brazilian Naturals decreased 4.2 per cent to 95.81 US cents per pound, which is the lowest price for this group since July 2006.Colombian Minds declined 2.1 per cent to 125.23 US cents per pound with Other Minds fell 3.6 per cent to 123.89 US cents per pound.On the production side, Central America and Mexico is estimated to decline 0.5 per cent to 21.72 million bags, accounting for the fall in Other Milds group exports this coffee year.Similarly, output in Asia and Oceania is estimated to decrease two per cent to 48.18 million bags, due to lower than expected yields.Vietnam’s exports in February 2019 fell 22.7 per cent to 1.7 million bags compared to February 2018. The ICO reveals that Africa’s production is to remain stable at 17.74 million bags, which is an increase of 1.4 per cent. This reflected growth is due to its shipments in the first five months of coffee year 2018/19, which doubled to 617,241 bags, reflecting the ample supply of coffee on the international market.World production in coffee year 2018/19 is estimated at 168.05 million bags while consumption is estimated at 164.99 million bags, creating a surplus of 3.06 million bags. This follows a surplus of 4.16 million bags in coffee year 2017/18.Prospects of a large offyear crop from Brazil and increased exports in each month of 2018/19 compared to the previous year are contributing to the sustained low prices.
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
RBI Reference Rate Currency Rupee- $ Euro
Rate Currency
Rate
69.3350 Yen
62.4725
78.4 GBP
90.93
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.35 TGT 69.45/69.55 SL BELOW 69.2 SELL USDINR BELOW 69.2 TGT 69.1/69 SL ABOVE 69.35
GBP/IN TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91 TGT 91.2/91.5 SL BELOW 90.9 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.8 TGT 90.7/90.6 SL ABOVE 91
The Hong Kong dollar jumped the most since December on Wednesday, as short-sellers were burned by spiking borrowing costs.The exchange rate strengthened as much as 0.14 percent, moving away from the weak end of its trading band, where it had been stuck for weeks. It pared the advance to 0.05 percent as of 5:24 p.m. local time. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has spent $2.8 billion since the start of March to defend the peg.The currency’s forward points have surged, with the one-month tenor touching the highest level since September, reflecting tighter liquidity and thus higher costs for traders to build bearish wagers. The Hong Kong dollar’s interbank interest rates, known as Hibor, also climbed, with the one-month cost rising the most this year Wednesday.Some short carry trade unwinding is reasonable,” said Stephen Chiu, foreignexchange and rates strategist at China Construction Bank Asia Corp. “This movement could be temporary -- the interbank liquidity situation wasn’t that bad, so the Hong Kong dollar rates should soften again in the future. And we do expect the U.S. rates to rebound.” A gap between borrowing costs in the city and the U.S. fueled weakness in the Hong Kong dollar in March, as traders sold the local currency and put the proceeds in the higher-yielding greenback. That spread has narrowed, partly thanks to intervention, from almost 1.6 percentage points in February to 43 basis points -- making shorting the Hong Kong currency a less lucrative trade. Gains in local equities this year could also be contributing to the advance, as investors purchase the city’s currency to chase the rally, according to Ryan Lam, head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank Ltd. The Hang Seng Index closed at the highest since June on Tuesday, before slipping 0.1 percent Wednesday.The Norwegian crown rallied to its highest level against the euro in five months on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected inflation data raised expectations of another rate hike from the central bank in the coming months .Core CPI for March came in at 2.7 percent compared to market expectations of 2.5 percent, supporting the view that near-term inflation is holding up in an economy that is also benefiting from higher commodity prices.
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
10/04/19
NCDEX DHANIYA
APR
BUY
7316
10/04/19
NCDEX DHANIYA
APR
Sell
10/04/19
NCDEX GUARGUM5
APR
10/04/19
NCDEX GUARGUM5
10/04/19
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Stop Loss
Remark
8985/9045/9095
7286
SL HIT
7144
7129/7069/6999
7174
TARGET
BUY
8955
8985/9045/9095
8970
TARGET
APR
SELL
8909
8879/8819/8769
8905
NOT EXECUTED
MCX GOLD
JUN
BUY
32155
32200/32250
32050
SL HIT
10/04/19
MCX GOLD
JUN
SELL
32000
31950/31900
32100
NOT EXECUTED
10/04/19
MCX SILVER
JUL
BUY
38500
38550/38600
38400
TARGET
10/04/19
MCX SILVER
JUL
SELL
38450
38400/38300
38550
TARGET
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
Target
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION
10/04/19
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
11700-11750
11800/11900
10900
10/04/19
HAVELLS
FUTURE
BUY
767
770/775
764
SL HIT
10/04/19
PVR
FUTURE
BUY
1698
1706/1720
1690
TARGET
10/04/19
INFY
CASH
BUY
760-762
770/780
750
OPEN
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
TIME (ET)
PER ACTUAL IOD
REPORT
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, APRIL 8
Factory orders* (new date)
Feb .
0.1%
6 am
NFIB small business index
Ma rch
101.7
10 am
Job openings
Feb .
7.6 mln
10 am TUESDAY, APRIL 9
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10
8:30 am
Consumer price index
Ma rch
0.2%
8:30 am
Core CPI
Ma rch
0.1%
2 pm
FOMC minutes
9:45 am 2 pm 9:45 am
Markit manufacturing index flash Federal budget Markit services index flash
Nov. Nov.
-Ma rch --
55.7
--
54.8
-$125bln
THURSDAY, APRIL 11
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
4/6
--
8:30 am
Producer price index
Ma rch
0.1%
8:30 am
Import price index
Ma rch
0.6%
10 am
Consumer sentiment index
Apr il
98.4
FRIDAY, APRIL 12
*DELAYED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
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Special Report 11 –APR -2019
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Sachin Yadav
Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-04-11 09:15+05:30
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