Special Report 11 April 2019 Epic Research

Page 1

Special Report 11 –APR -2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

Technology stocks led Wall Street slightly higher on Wednesday, as US inflation data proved to be benign and the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting were unsurprising.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.58 points, or 0.03 percent, to 26,157.16, the S&P 500 gained 10.01 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,888.21, and the Nasdaq Composite added 54.97 points, or 0.69 percent, to 7,964.24.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

26157

+0.03

S&P500

2888

+0.35

NASDAQ

7964

+0.69

FTSE100

7421

-0.05

21627 29822

-0.28 -0.99

Asian stocks held near eight-month highs on Thursday and the dollar slipped again on expectations global interest rates will stay lower for longer after a dovish turn by the European Central Bank and milder than expected US inflation.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan paused after four straight days of gains but held near its highest since last August. Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.2 percent as the yen strengthened.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 17.5 points or 0.15 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,669-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Top Gainers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF

Bharti Airtel Hindalco TCS Asian Paints HDFC Bank

Indian equity markets continued to remain volatile, shedding yesterday’s gain as both Nifty and Bank Nifty posted a sharp sell-off in closing hour of the trade.Major heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints closed at intraday lows, shedding 2-3% backed by a buildup of heavy short positions. Nifty midcap 50 index outperformed the benchmark index. Market breadth ended in the favour of the declines with advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1xNifty and Bank Nifty futures added fresh open interest, indicating marginal build -up of short positions. On the options front (April 11, 2019 expiry), across the board unwinding of short positions in put option strikes was seen with Nifty 11600PE shedding 5.13 lakh shares in open positions.

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Tata Motors

216.05

10.15

4.93

Cipla

546.45

14.45

2.72

281

7.2

2.63

HUL

1,694.15

13.65

0.81

IOC

156.6

1.2

0.77

CMP

Change

% Chg

340 211.7 2,040.25 1,409.85 2,237.35

-11.6 -5.45 -51.25 -35 -49.9

-3.3 -2.51 -2.45 -2.42 -2.18

Wipro

Top Losers Company

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

BALAXI

55.9

2.65

4.98

BILENERGY

4.65

0.2

4.49

24,245.00

927.35

3.98

1,097.00

23.9

2.23

65.75

4.2

7.02

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

ANGIND

0.85

0.05

5.88

ATNINTER

0.05

0

0

CANDC DNAMEDIA GANDHITUBE

8.75 0.95 333

0.4 0 -4

4.35 0 -1.15

HONAUT ICICIGI J&KBANK

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-17.5pts], Consumption[-16.5ts],PSE[-5.75pts],CPSE[-0.55pts],Energy [-41.35pts],FMCG[-24.30pts],Auto[+21.7pts],Pharma [+74.60pts],IT[-122.45pts],Metal[-28.45pts],Realty [+3.10pts], Fin Serv sector[-141.45pts].

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11584

-87.7

-0.57

SENSEX

38585

-353

-0.91

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. HAVELLS [FUTURE ]

INFY

HAVELLS — Stock is trading in channel line & Hammer pattern form on daily chart . Stock is al;so taking a support of trend line .RSI & MACD also indicating Buying in this stock .Our recommendation is to Buy stock future in the range 767 Target 770-775 maintain sl below 764

INFOSYS — Stock is taking a support of trendline on weekly chart & also forming a Cup & Handle . Quarterly result of company is on April 12,2019. Our recommendation is to Buy Infosys 760-762 Target 770/780 maintain Sl below 750. Market expectation from company is high on revenue front as we compare with its peers like TCS , HCL Tech .

2. PVR [FUTURE] PVR — On weekly chart stock giveen breakout & created bullish hammer candle stick pattern .Our view on the technical basis is to buy stock future in range 1698 Target 1706/1720 Sl below 1690. Stock is moving above all its important moving averages like 50,100 & 200 DEMA.

MACRO NEWS 

The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this year given risks to the US economy from a global slowdown and uncertainty over trade policies and financial conditions, according to the minutes from its March 19-20 policy meeting. The US central bank pivoted abruptly at that meeting to a much-less aggressive posture, and the minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers agreed to be “patient” about making any moves on rates.“A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,” according to the minutes.

The mutual fund closed the year with an 11,41 percent rise in their total assets under management at Rs 23.80 lakh crore in the year to March, from Rs 21.36 lakh crore in the previous year, according to the industry data released Wednesday. On a monthly basis, AUM grew 2.73 percent from Rs 23.16 lakh crore in February.

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

CE

30,200

20.5

8,60,095

7,44,580

BANKNIFTY

CE

30,300

12.5

BANKNIFTY

CE

30,500

6

TATAMOTORS CE

220

6.3

TATAMOTORS CE

210

11.3

CE

2,300

20.9

TATAMOTORS CE

240

1.6

2,100

40.4

HDFCBANK TCS

CE

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 MOST

Avenue Supermarts: Company raised Rs 50 crore via 8,72,660 commercial papers. 7,24,686 9,68,220 Ashok Leyland: Promoter pledged 1.33 percent stake in 12,017 42,70,000 the company. 8,222 38,46,000 7,181 6,08,500 NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On weekly chart Nifty close with green candle,during this week nifty was traded in a 6,636 28,88,000 brode range of 235 points. first phase of election April 6,439 10,17,750 17,2019 . In last week FII infuse more than 6000 cr & selling by DII in cash Rs 435 cr, which was less as we 5,823 2,83,500 compare to last week data . AfterOn Nifty we may Traded Open expect new all time high will see before starting analysis Volume Interest of data suggest that 11500-11600 work as support & OI (Contracts) addtion seen in 11700-11800 works as resistance . Our 8,42,980 5,87,160 recommendation is to Buy Nifty 50 in the range 114507,63,943 3,82,080 11500 Target 11550/11600 SL below 11350. 8,35,705

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,800

89

BANKNIFTY

PE

30,000

210

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,900

141

7,47,792

2,46,620

TATAMOTORS PE

200

2.4

5,249

47,04,000

PE

2,240

27.7

4,960

4,56,250

TATAMOTORS PE

210

4.8

4,816

24,40,000

HDFCBANK

LTP

Info Edge: Company has invested through its whollyowned subsidiary Rs 6 crore in Bizcrum Infotech Private Ltd.

RELIANCE

PE

1,320

22.8

4,058

8,33,000

HDFCBANK

PE

2,260 38.05

3,531

1,67,750

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

32133

2502.42

37841

2714.04

240280

19178.40

-211.6197

INDEX OPTIONS

2541036

169965.85

2535145

169579.99

892864

70118.52

385.8576

STOCK FUTURES

179575

11091.11

182036

11319.09

1383520

89865.34

-227.9867

STOCK OPTIONS

93826

5794.49

93730

5774.43

109361

6870.88

20.0653 -33.6835

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11720

11652

11612

11544

11503

BANKNIFTY

30296

30050

29909

29662

29521

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: GOLD BUY ABOVE 32155 Target 32200/32250 Sl 32050 GOLD SELL BELOW 32000 Target 31950/31900 Sl 32100

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver Buy Above 38500 Target 38500/38600 Sl 38400 Silver Sell Below 38450 Target 38400/38300 Sl 38550

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold held steady near a two-week high on Wednesday as world equities retreated after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's March meeting.Spot gold XAU= was unchanged at $1,304.35 an ounce at 1009 GMT, having touched its highest since March 28 on Tuesday at $1,306.09. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were flat at $1,308.50. "It (gold) seems to be very much stuck at the moment ... part of the issue is most of the developments haven't really been much of a surprise to the market," said Capital Economics analyst Ross Strachan, adding that the growth downgrade by the IMF was also widely anticipated.Gold was also supported by central bank purchases and a significant move lower in U.S. equity markets will boost prices, Strachan said.The IMF had said on Tuesday that the global economy is slowing more than expected and a sharp downturn could require world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures. banks around the world were increasing their gold stockpiles, with China raising its reserves for a fourth straight month in March. is widely viewed as a safe investment during times of political and economic uncertainty. Oil prices rose on Wednesday back towards five-month highs hit the previous day as OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela continued to tighten supply, although economic worries increased.International benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 were at $70.92 per barrel at 0900 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.44 percent, from their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 oil futures were at $64.33 per barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.55 percent, from their last settlement. Oil markets have tightened this year because of U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by around 30 percent and 40 percent respectively since the start of the year.The global oil market is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to OPEC+ production cuts," ING bank said.

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 9050 TGT 9080/9140/9190 SL BELOW 9000 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8909 TGT 8879/8819/8769 SL ABOVE 8959

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 7189 TGT 7204/7264/7334 SL BELOW 7159 SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 6965 TGT 6950/6890/6820 SL ABOVE 6995

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

4100 6268 1936 4146.5 15440

-0.46 -1.72 -1.14 0.33 0.03

Jeera

3840

-0.42

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

3637 6238 6148

-0.55 0.64 0.29

Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

In March 2019, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator fell by 3.1 per cent to 97.50 US cents per pound, the lowest monthly average since October 2006, when the price was 95.53 US cents per pound.The ICO reports that price movements for all group indicators have fallen, contributing to the low composite indicator.Prices for Brazilian Naturals decreased 4.2 per cent to 95.81 US cents per pound, which is the lowest price for this group since July 2006.Colombian Minds declined 2.1 per cent to 125.23 US cents per pound with Other Minds fell 3.6 per cent to 123.89 US cents per pound.On the production side, Central America and Mexico is estimated to decline 0.5 per cent to 21.72 million bags, accounting for the fall in Other Milds group exports this coffee year.Similarly, output in Asia and Oceania is estimated to decrease two per cent to 48.18 million bags, due to lower than expected yields.Vietnam’s exports in February 2019 fell 22.7 per cent to 1.7 million bags compared to February 2018. The ICO reveals that Africa’s production is to remain stable at 17.74 million bags, which is an increase of 1.4 per cent. This reflected growth is due to its shipments in the first five months of coffee year 2018/19, which doubled to 617,241 bags, reflecting the ample supply of coffee on the international market.World production in coffee year 2018/19 is estimated at 168.05 million bags while consumption is estimated at 164.99 million bags, creating a surplus of 3.06 million bags. This follows a surplus of 4.16 million bags in coffee year 2017/18.Prospects of a large offyear crop from Brazil and increased exports in each month of 2018/19 compared to the previous year are contributing to the sustained low prices.

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency Rupee- $ Euro

Rate Currency

Rate

69.3350 Yen

62.4725

78.4 GBP

90.93

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.35 TGT 69.45/69.55 SL BELOW 69.2 SELL USDINR BELOW 69.2 TGT 69.1/69 SL ABOVE 69.35

GBP/IN TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91 TGT 91.2/91.5 SL BELOW 90.9 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.8 TGT 90.7/90.6 SL ABOVE 91

The Hong Kong dollar jumped the most since December on Wednesday, as short-sellers were burned by spiking borrowing costs.The exchange rate strengthened as much as 0.14 percent, moving away from the weak end of its trading band, where it had been stuck for weeks. It pared the advance to 0.05 percent as of 5:24 p.m. local time. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has spent $2.8 billion since the start of March to defend the peg.The currency’s forward points have surged, with the one-month tenor touching the highest level since September, reflecting tighter liquidity and thus higher costs for traders to build bearish wagers. The Hong Kong dollar’s interbank interest rates, known as Hibor, also climbed, with the one-month cost rising the most this year Wednesday.Some short carry trade unwinding is reasonable,” said Stephen Chiu, foreignexchange and rates strategist at China Construction Bank Asia Corp. “This movement could be temporary -- the interbank liquidity situation wasn’t that bad, so the Hong Kong dollar rates should soften again in the future. And we do expect the U.S. rates to rebound.” A gap between borrowing costs in the city and the U.S. fueled weakness in the Hong Kong dollar in March, as traders sold the local currency and put the proceeds in the higher-yielding greenback. That spread has narrowed, partly thanks to intervention, from almost 1.6 percentage points in February to 43 basis points -- making shorting the Hong Kong currency a less lucrative trade. Gains in local equities this year could also be contributing to the advance, as investors purchase the city’s currency to chase the rally, according to Ryan Lam, head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank Ltd. The Hang Seng Index closed at the highest since June on Tuesday, before slipping 0.1 percent Wednesday.The Norwegian crown rallied to its highest level against the euro in five months on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected inflation data raised expectations of another rate hike from the central bank in the coming months .Core CPI for March came in at 2.7 percent compared to market expectations of 2.5 percent, supporting the view that near-term inflation is holding up in an economy that is also benefiting from higher commodity prices.

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

10/04/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

7316

10/04/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

10/04/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

APR

10/04/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

10/04/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

8985/9045/9095

7286

SL HIT

7144

7129/7069/6999

7174

TARGET

BUY

8955

8985/9045/9095

8970

TARGET

APR

SELL

8909

8879/8819/8769

8905

NOT EXECUTED

MCX GOLD

JUN

BUY

32155

32200/32250

32050

SL HIT

10/04/19

MCX GOLD

JUN

SELL

32000

31950/31900

32100

NOT EXECUTED

10/04/19

MCX SILVER

JUL

BUY

38500

38550/38600

38400

TARGET

10/04/19

MCX SILVER

JUL

SELL

38450

38400/38300

38550

TARGET

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

10/04/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

11700-11750

11800/11900

10900

10/04/19

HAVELLS

FUTURE

BUY

767

770/775

764

SL HIT

10/04/19

PVR

FUTURE

BUY

1698

1706/1720

1690

TARGET

10/04/19

INFY

CASH

BUY

760-762

770/780

750

OPEN

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

TIME (ET)

PER ACTUAL IOD

REPORT

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, APRIL 8

Factory orders* (new date)

Feb .

0.1%

6 am

NFIB small business index

Ma rch

101.7

10 am

Job openings

Feb .

7.6 mln

10 am TUESDAY, APRIL 9

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10

8:30 am

Consumer price index

Ma rch

0.2%

8:30 am

Core CPI

Ma rch

0.1%

2 pm

FOMC minutes

9:45 am 2 pm 9:45 am

Markit manufacturing index flash Federal budget Markit services index flash

Nov. Nov.

-Ma rch --

55.7

--

54.8

-$125bln

THURSDAY, APRIL 11

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

4/6

--

8:30 am

Producer price index

Ma rch

0.1%

8:30 am

Import price index

Ma rch

0.6%

10 am

Consumer sentiment index

Apr il

98.4

FRIDAY, APRIL 12

*DELAYED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

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Special Report 11 –APR -2019

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Sachin Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-04-11 09:15+05:30

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