Special report-12-october-2018-epic-research

Special Report 12-Oct-2018

Global markets at a glance Wall Street indexes continued their slide in Thursday's volatile session as investors worried about rising interest rates and braced for a trade war hit to corporate earnings a day ahead of the quarterly reporting season kickoff.

In its sixth consecutive day of declines, the S&P closed down 2.1 percent after shedding 3 percent in Wednesday's session. But at its session low the benchmark fell 2.7 percent to its lowest level since early July.The Nasdaq narrowly avoided confirming a correction. During the session it fell as much as 10.3 percent from its Aug. 29 closing record high but ended the day 9.6 percent below the record.

Investors worried that equity markets would have trouble recovering as rising interest rates coincide with uncertainty about how much earnings growth would be hurt by a US trade war with China.

Asian shares appeared tentative on Friday, holding steady after a nine-day losing streak, but sentiment was frail after Wall Street shares crumbled and expectations of market volatility shot up to an eight-month high.

Worries about the economic impact of a Sino-US trade war, a spike in US bond yields this week and caution ahead of earnings seasons are all cited as potential reasons behind the selloff, the biggest market rout since February.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent after the opening of the South Korea and Australian markets, a day after it fell 3.6 percent to hit 1and-a-1/2 year low.

Previous day Roundup Brutal sell-off following sharp correction in global peers dragged benchmark indices to fresh six-month low on Thursday. The Nifty50 ended with deep cuts amid fears of rapidly rising interest rates and likely slowdown in global economic growth hinted by IMF. The Nifty50 opened with big gap down at 10,169.80 followed by a bit of recovery from day's low of 10,138.60 in later part of the session. The index still closed 225.40 points lower at 10,234.70, the lowest closing level since April 4, 2018.India VIX moved up sharply by 14.68 percent to 20.53 levels. Spurt in VIX from previous day's low suggests that bears are not loosening their grip and bounce are being sold in the market. Now VIX has to cool down below 17.50-17 zones to get any sign of consolidation Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-50.9pts], C o n s u m p t i o n [ - 6 8 . 1 p ts ] , B a n k [ - 5 3 7 . 7 5 p t s ] , Au t o [ 222.45pts],FinService[-296.70pts],Fmcg[-221.5pts],Media[4 .2 pts],P harma[ -282 .7pts],IT[ -460 .20 pts],Metal[ 132.15pts],Realty[-5.85 pts], Pvt Bank[-258.70pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

25,052.83

-2.15

S&P500

2,767.50

0.80

NASDAQ

7,095.75

0.79

FTSE100

7,145.74

-1.29

22,510.50 25,563.53

-0.46 1.16

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

HPCL

207.95

27.25

15.08

BPCL

278.15

12.75

4.80

GAIL

350.25

13.90

4.13

ONGC

152.95

4.35

2.93

Yes Bank

240.20

6.30

2.69

CMP

Change

% Chg

5,592.00 262.15

-369.50 -16.50

-6.20 -5.92

555.15

-28.50

-4.88

2,162.10 207.90

-108.85 -10.25

-4.79 -4.70

Top Losers Company

Bajaj Finserv SBI Tata Steel Bajaj Finance Vedanta

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

6.95

0.3

4.32

1000.01

0

0

0.95

0.05

5.26

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

133.8 24.05 4 1017.2 14.55

-6.65 -0.65 -0.05 -42.15 -0.2

-4.97 -2.7 -1.25 -4.14 -1.37

JAINSTUDIO LIQUIDETF PRAKASHSTL

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

8KMILES AARVEEDEN ABGSHIP ACCELYA ADLABS

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10234.65

-225.45

-2.16

SENSEX

34001.15

-759.74

-2.19

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. UJJIVAN [FUTURE ] After making a doji candle at its support level of 232 the particular counter has made two bullish confirmation candle which clearly show a sign of reversal, 255 is the only resistance level which is acting as a hurdle for it so we advice you to buy around 255-256 for the targets of 260-266 with stoploss below 252.

2. ITC [FUTURE] The partiuclar counter is showing a tendency to rebound from its support level of 268, also it has made a doji candle at this level today we can get a opportunity to buy on high so we advice to sell itc future around 269-271 for the targets of 274-278 with stoploss above 267.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] IBREALEST [CASH] After consolidating in the range between 90-79 the stock made a clear breakout and closed with a bullish candle above its resistance level of 91.75. As per the daily chart if it sustains at this level then 99-100 levels can be achieved in intraday so we advice to buy ibrealest around 96-97 for the targets of 100-104 with stoploss below 94.

MACRO NEWS  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 34 points or 0.33 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,313level on the Singaporean Exchange.  The government may announce a fresh set of measures that could include higher customs duties and import restrictions on a certain non-essential items as part of a broader plan to contain a widening current account deficit (CAD) and arrest the rupee’s slide. It is learnt that there could be a new list of items that would attract higher import duty. In addition, sources said that the government is also mulling quantitative restrictions on inward shipments.The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) will also take stock of the situation today (October 12), particularly with the situation pertaining to CAD and depreciating rupee, sources told Moneycontrol  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remained net seller of the US dollar in August, as it sold $2.323 billion of the greenback in the spot market, RBI data showed. In the reporting month, the central bank purchased $3.680 billion, while sold $6.003 billion in the spot market, according to the data. In FY18, the apex bank had net purchased $33.689 billion of US dollars from the spot market. It had bought $52.068 billion from the spot market, while selling $18.379 billion. In FY17, the RBI had bought $12.351 billion of the US dollar on a net basis.

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION



NALCO meeting of board of directors of the company will be held on October 12, 2018 to consider the proposal for buyback of the fully paidup equity shares of the company

0.05 14,28,522

13,50,840  12,12,000

0.05 14,21,590

15,26,760

Tata Motors: Group global wholesales in September 2018, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 1,23,577 numbers, higher by 6 percent compared to September 2017.

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

CE

24,800

0.05 15,44,938

BANKNIFTY

CE

24,900

BANKNIFTY

CE

25,000

NIFTY

CE

10,500

56

3,02,915

YESBANK

CE

250

13.5

7,156

35,92,575 NIFTY FUTURE 30,31,000

YESBANK

CE

260

9.95

7,097

26,93,250

YESBANK

CE

300

3.05

5,820

45,15,000

RELIANCE

CE

1,100

35.8

5,806

11,42,000

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST

Open Interest

2,83,500

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

PE

24,600

0.05

10,94,580

9,93,160

BANKNIFTY

PE

24,700

0.05

10,70,022

14,61,960

BANKNIFTY

PE

24,500

0.05

9,46,157

NIFTY

PE

10,000

81

2,59,690

RELIANCE

PE

1,000

11

4,609

YESBANK

PE

220

7.95

4,265

YESBANK

PE

230

11.1

4,048

YESBANK

PE

200

3.8

3,607

13,37,440 The Nifty50 opened with big gap down at 10,169.80 44,08,800 followed by a bit of recovery from day's low of 10,138.60 in later part of the session. The index still closed 225.40 14,36,000 points lower at 10,234.70, the lowest closing level since 26,77,500 April 4, 2018. Here you can go for sell on rise strategy 13,77,250 around 10470-50 for the targets of 10400-10350 with stoploss above 10550.

25,00,750

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

INDEX FUTURES

45350

3932.18

62117

INDEX OPTIONS

1555236

146803.11

STOCK FUTURES

311794

18542.87

274129

STOCK OPTIONS

109457

7009.78

110660

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

5418.93

289344

22881.91

-1486.7562

1542307 145654.49

946339

77329.66

1148.6234

16263.06

1288255

84500.65

2279.8172

7106.54

114659

7404.82

-96.7596 1844.9248

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

10474.00

10363.00

10259.00

10148.00

10044.00

BANKNIFTY

25265.00

25046.00

24778.00

24559.00

24291.00

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD DEC FUT ABOVE 32020 TGT 32100 32150 SL BELOW 31970 SELL GOLD DEC FUT BELOW 31250 TGT 31200 31150 SL ABOVE 31300

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER DEC FUT 39100 TGT 39150 39200 SL BELOW 39050 SELL SILVER DEC FUT 38340 TGT 38300 38250 SL ABOVE 38400

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices rose on Thursday as a sell-off in global stock markets prompted investors to seek safety in the metal, with a softer dollar further supporting bullion. Spot gold XAU= gained 0.8 percent to $1,203.30 an ounce by 0947 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCv1 added 1.1 percent at $1,206.20 an ounce.European stocks fell in line with a slump on Wall Street, pointing to growing risk aversion across global markets and turning greater attention to U.S. inflation data later in the day for clues on the pace of monetary tightening. MKTS/GLOB "Gold is finding a bit of support from the global sell-off seen in equities. If this (sell-off) persists, we will start seeing more of a move to gold as a safe-haven asset," ING analyst Warren Patterson said."Rising U.S. yields and general strength in the dollar have meant that investors have largely ignored gold. But people are seeing fairly good value at current levels on the back of some macro concerns," Patterson said.Wednesday's dive on Wall Street prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to lash out against the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Some analysts said his comments were supporting gold prices somewhat.

The Fed increased interest rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December, with no suggestion its tightening will cease any time soon.

Gold has fallen about 13 percent since hitting a peak in April, with investors increasingly switching to the safety of the greenback as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates.But gold has recovered from a 1-1/2-year low of $1,059.96 hit in midAugust, propped up by limited safe-haven buying at the lower end of its range, spurred by concerns over economic growth and inflationary pressure from soaring oil prices. O/ R Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.21 percent to 738.99 tonnes on Wednesday. This was the SPDR ETF's first gain since July and the biggest inflow since March.Spot silver XAG= rose 1.1 percent to $14.42 an ounce and palladium XPD= was up 1.2 percent at $1,079.72.

Platinum XPT= edged up 0.2 percent to $820.50 an ounce.

Gold advanced by Rs 130 to Rs 31,980 per 10 gram Thursday following uptick in festive season demand from jewellers and retailers at the domestic spot market despite a weak global trend.

However, silver met with resistance at prevailing levels and declined by Rs 200 to Rs 39,000 per kg.

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9150 TGT 9200 9250 SL BELOW 9100 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 8900 TARGET 8850-8800 SL 8950

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1755 4868 4214 4860 1723 4126

0.2 1.25 0.74 1 0.32 -0.83

19600

0.49

4011 3197 6918

-0.84 -0.22 -0.14

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

Soyabean prices firmed up again in Nagpur Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) on increased demand from local crushing plants amid tight supply from producing belts. Upward trend in Madhya Pradesh soyabean prices and enquiries from South-based plants also jacked up prices. About 6,000 new soyabean bags reported for auction in Nagpur APMC, according to sources.

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA OCT FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 5000 5050 SL BELOW 4900 SELL DHANIYA OCT FUT BELOW 4800 TARGET 4750-4700 SL 4850

Cotton prices are expected to remain firm in the long term with traders expecting export demand to pick up. Current delays in the arrival of crop in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis may also support the prices. Analysts expect prices to move from the current Rs 22,300 per bale of 170 kg each to Rs 23,000 per bale in October. Increased demand from China, Bangladesh and Vietnam and the opening up of the Pakistan market for Indian cotton could firm up prices further, traders said. “The demand .for cotton by local spinners and exporters will pick up by October 15. Apart from China, Bangladesh and Vietnam, we expect orders from Pakistan. The Pakistan government is expected to lift import duty of 5 per cent by next week,� says Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India. They will come out with figures on export and domestic demand on Nov 1, he said.Traders expect cotton production in 2018 to fall 4.7 per cent from the previous season to 34.8 million bales due to lower rainfall in key cotton growing states and attack of pink bollworms. This will also support cotton prices, they said. The country exported 6.9 million bales in 2017-18 marketing year that ended on September 30, he added.

Coffee bean sales in Vietnam and Indonesia picked up this week on a strong recovery in global prices, while the main harvest is awaited next month in Vietnam, traders said on Thursday. Exporters offered Vietnam's 5-percent black and broken grade 2 robusta at $50-$60 discount per tonne to London's January contract, compared to $30-$40 discount last week, traders said.

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

74.3875 Yen

66.29

Euro

85.2637 GBP

97.6284

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 74.80 TGT 75.30 75.80 SL BELOW 74.30 SELL USDINR BELOW 73.50 TGT 73.00 72.50 SL ABOVE 74.00

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 98.60 TGT 99.00 99.50 SL BELOW 98.20 SELL GBPINR BELOW 95.50 TGT 95.00 94.50 SL ABOVE 96.00

The recent drop in the rupee to record lows has dealt a double blow to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). While the depreciating rupee has eroded the value of their holdings in dollar terms, the government’s move in the recent Budget to tax capital gains made by foreigners in the domestic stock market on rupee denominated returns has added to their woes. Until last financial year, foreigners paid tax on capital gains based on dollar returns. This was allowed only for stock market trans transactions under a special provision in the Income Tax Act . The government quietly withdrew this benefit in this Budget while reintroducing the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax in the Union Budget. Now, foreign investors have to calculate capital gains based on how much they have earned in rupee terms.

Then, overseas investors didn’t oppose the move because of the rupee’s strength against dollar earlier this year. But, with the Indian currency falling 16 per cent so far in 2018, capital gains tax on rupeebased returns would be steeper.

The dollar weakened on Thursday following an overnight drop in U.S. Treasury yields, though moves in foreign exchange markets were far more contained than the global rout in stocks. Risk appetite broadly remained robust in currencies, with the Aussie AUD=D3 and the kiwi NZD=D3 rallying by half a percent each against the greenback.

"The dollar's weakness may be due to some unwinding of very long positions ...after the overnight drop in U.S. yields but these are very volatile markets," said Manuel Oliveri, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR) in London.

Against a basket of its rivals .DXY =USD , the dollar fell a quarter of a percent to 95.17. It has fallen 1 percent in the last two trading sessions and is holding at its lowest level since the start of October.With long dollar positions at their biggest since end-2016 among hedge funds, markets have become very focused on any slight tweak in likely policy settings from the U.S. Federal Reserve and any data that might change the central bank's thinking.

U.S. inflation data for September is due later in the day with market expectations at 0.2 percent on a monthly basis. As investors selectively took shelter in safe-haven assets, the MSCI index of global stocks hit its lowest levels since early February while gauges of market volatility jumped.

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

Contract

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

11/10/18

NCDEX CORIANDER

NOV.

BUY

4950

5000-5050

4900

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

NCDEX CORIANDER

NOV.

SELL

4800

4750-4700

4850

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

NCDEX GUARGUM

NOV.

BUY

9050

9100-9150

9000

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

NCDEX GUARGUM

NOV.

SELL

8990

8950-8900

9040

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

MCX GOLD

DEC.

BUY

31310

31350-31400

31260

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

MCX GOLD

DEC.

SELL

31250

31200-31150

31300

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

MCX SILVER

DEC.

BUY

38670

38720-38770

38620

TARGET HIT

11/10/18

MCX SILVER

DEC.

SELL

38540

38500-38450

38590

TARGET HIT

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

11/10/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10470-50

10400-10350

10550

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

UJJIVAN

FUTURE

BUY

255-256

260-266

252

OPEN

11/10/18

ITC

FUTURE

SELL

269.-271

274-278

267

NOT EXECUTED

11/10/18

IBREALEST

CASH

BUY

96-97

100-104

94

NOT EXECUTED

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Special Report 12-Oct-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

108.8

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 10

WEDNESDAY , OCT. 10

0.2%

-0.1%

THURSDAY, OCT. 11

THURSDAY, OCT. 11

206,000

207,000

MONDAY, OCT. 8 None scheduled Columbus Day TUESDAY, OCT. 9 6 am

NFIB small-business index

WEDNESDA Y, OCT. 10

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 10

8:30 am

Producer price index

Sept.

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, OCT. AY, OCT. 10 10 Sept.

10 am

THURSDAY, OCT. 11

THURSDAY, OCT. 11

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 11 Y, OCT. 11 10/6 8:30 am

8:30 am

Core CPI

Sept.

0.2%

0.1%

2pm

Federal budget

Sept.

--

$8 bln

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

8:30 am

Import price index

Sept.

--

-0.6%

10 am

Consumer sentiment index

Oct.

100.6

100.1

FRIDAY, OCT. 12

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