Special report-19-mar-2019-epic-research

Special Report

19-MAR-2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

Banks and tech helped lead Wall Street higher on Monday, while Boeing and Facebook were a drag and investors eyed this week’s US Federal Reservemeeting for affirmation of its commitment to “patient” monetary policy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65.23 points, or 0.25 percent, to 25,914.1, the S&P 500 gained 10.46 points, or 0.37 percent, to 2,832.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 25.95 points, or 0.34 percent, to 7,714.48

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25914

+0.25

S&P500

2832

+0.37

NASDAQ

7714

+0.34

FTSE100

7299

+0.98

21543 29398

-0.19 -0.04

Asian shares treaded water on Tuesday ahead of a US Federal Reserve policy meeting, hovering near six-month highs, while sterling was choppy as thespeaker of Britain’s parliament banned another vote on same Brexit deal.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was virtually flat, just a hair away from the highest level since September 21. Japan’s Nikkei average dropped 0.5 percent, while Australian stocks eased 0.1 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 21 points or 0.18 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,532-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Top Gainers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets closed the trade on a volatile note as pendulum swings weighed in. Nifty continued its positive momentum, closing higher for the sixth trading day in a row. Reliance Industries contributed majority of the gains in Nifty and added fresh long positions as open positions continued to soar higher along with a rise in the stock price.Bajaj Finance added fresh long positions and is just ~2% away from breaching its life time high level. Midcap stocks continued their underperformance for the fourth day in a row as sharp selling was seen in major midcap names. Nifty Bank index gained ~0.75% led by strong gains in Axis & Kotak Bank. Market breadth ended in the favor of declines with the advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1.5x.

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

HPCL

286.8

9.85

3.56

IOC

162.8

5.45

3.46

2,929.55

68.8

2.4

BPCL

405.55

9.25

2.33

JSW Steel

294.95

6.5

2.25

CMP

Change

% Chg

6,909.10 2,669.50 257.6 330.6 1,012.00

-174.9 -66.35 -5.85 -7.1 -17.3

-2.47 -2.43 -2.22 -2.1 -1.68

Bajaj Finance

Top Losers Company

Maruti Suzuki Hero Motocorp Wipro Bharti Airtel HCL Tech

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

5.8

0.25

4.5

831.35

39.55

4.99

AXISBANK

756

19.3

2.63

BANKBEES

3,051.30

22.34

0.75

BILENERGY

2.4

0.1

4.35

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

14.85

0

0

0.4

0.05

12.5

4.85 1.65 8.55

-0.1 -0.05 -0.45

-1.96 -2.94 -5

ALOKTEXT ARVINDFASN

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+33.55pts], Consumption[-10.95pts],PSE[+31.75pts],CPSE [+16.05pts],Energy[+286.95pts],FMCG[+218.90pts],Auto[121pts],Pharma[-16.8pts],IT[-187.15pts],Metal [+20.15pts],Realty[+7.10pts], Fin Serv sector[+63.55pts].

ABMINTLTD BILPOWER CYBERMEDIA DNAMEDIA FEDDERELEC

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11462

+35.30

+0.31

SENSEX

38095

+70.75

+0.19

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. HPCL [FUTURE ]

ICICI BANK [CASH] ICICI BANK looking good & traded at all time high .In bankinkg space icici bank perfoming outstanding .Our view is bullish & suggest to buy stock in range 395 target 400-405 sl below 390 .Stock is treaded above all its important moving averages.

HPCL– In last week seen that buying in Oil & gas companies share like HPCL ,BPCL , IGL . On weekly chart green large candle formed & closing of stock above 200 DEMA. Stock also give breakout of resistense near 260-264 . From now we expect that buying in HPCL continue in upcoming week also. Our view is bullish & recommendation is to Buy for the target of 292. Buy on decline in between 283-285 Sl below 280 . HPCL is going to replace from britannia in Nifty 50 from March 29, 2019. So , it may possible that Mutual fund housees may reduce some part of exposeer from this stock .

MACRO NEWS 

2. MCX [FUTURE] MCX— On weekly chart stock give trendline breakout & seen that hammer pattern followed by three white soldiers ,both this are bullish pattern .Our view on the technical basis is to buy stock future in range 770 Target 780/800/840 Sl below 750 . Strong base was formed in stock near 660-670 . 

Oil prices hovered just below 2019 highs early on Tuesday, supported by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC. US sanctions against oil producers Iran and Venezuela are also boosting crude prices, although traders say the market looks capped by rising American output.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down four cents at $59.05 per barrel at 0026 GMT, close to the 2019 high of $59.23 reached the previous day. Brent crude oil futures were down six cents at $67.48 per barrel, within a dollar of this year’s high of $68.14 reached late last week.

Oil producer group OPEC on Monday scrapped its planned meeting in April and will decide instead whether to extend output cuts in June, once the market has assessed the impact of US sanctions on Iran and the crisis in Venezuelda. A ministerial panel of OPEC and its allies recommended that they cancel the extraordinary meeting scheduled for April 17-18 and hold the next regular talks on June 25-26. The energy minister of OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, said the market was looking oversupplied until the end of the year but that April would be too early for any decision on output policy.

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

CE

30,000

106

7,57,738

BANKNIFTY

CE

29,800

172

5,60,085

BANKNIFTY

CE

29,900 134.95

5,13,450

RELIANCE

CE

1,360

26

9,815

RELIANCE

CE

1,400

10.8

9,575

HDFCBANK

CE

2,300 21.75

8,366

TCS

CE

2,100

15.4

8,366

AXISBANK

CE

760

14.2

8,350

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST

Open Interest

HCL Technologies entered into a shared services arrangement with Xerox Corporation

6,94,860 Reliance Communications: The agreements dated December 28, 2017 and August 11, 2018 entered into 3,25,680 between company, RTL, RITL (RCOM Group) and Reliance 3,57,140 Jio respectively for sale of certain specified telecom assets have been terminated today by mutual agreement 9,21,000 10,06,500 NIFTY FUTURE 5,61,000

NIFTY - On Thursday market is in narrow range due to 8,44,500 weekly expiry of Nifty 50 option . Nifty opened at high 18,73,200 but not sustain & last two days Pre –Election rally has stoped for a time being ,but it may expected to be 2,83,500 contiune upto 11500 . Buying in Banking, NBFC , & Open Reality sector .On teachnical point of view nifty broke a Interest channel line & our recommendation is to Buy nifty future on decline in range 11400 Target 11500/11570 Sl 11350.

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,000

37.3

5,75,884

7,55,280

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,500 118.8

5,07,039

5,62,720

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,300

75

4,67,473

3,32,040

RELIANCE

PE

1,300

7.55

8,219

14,27,000

MARUTI

PE

6,800

93

6,802

80,400

RELIANCE

PE

1,320 10.95

6,649

7,59,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,340

15.6

6,153

7,50,000

MARUTI

PE

6,500 35.45

4,987

59,625

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

61752

4625.54

52201

3797.56

333651

26741.09

827.9822

INDEX OPTIONS

3431770

225369.27

3425525

224818.05

1030800

79742.71

551.2238

STOCK FUTURES

189178

11931.33

202116

12733.15

1449156

91856.92

-801.8185

STOCK OPTIONS

156784

10119.09

155849

10059.90

138378

8721.81

59.1966 636.5841

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11586

11524

11468

11406

11350

BANKNIFTY

30040

29818

29589

29367

29139

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: Gold BUY ABOVE 31780 TARGET 31800/31850 SL 31740 Gold Sell BELOW 31680 TARGET 31650/31600 SL 31750

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver BUY ABOVE 38300 TARGET 38350/38400 SL 38200 Silver Sell BELOW 38120 TARGET 38050/38000 SL 38240

COMMODITY ROUNDUP A weak global trend and easing demand from local jewellers pulled down gold prices by Rs 280 to Rs 32,830 per 10 gram at the bullion market on Monday, according to All India Sarafa Association.Besides, silver prices drifted down by Rs 345 to Rs 38,725 per kg due to reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers.Traders said apart from a weak trend overseas, as equity markets gained and the dollar steadied ahead of a US Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week, fading demand from local jewellers and retailers mainly weighed on gold prices here.Globally, gold price was quoted at USD 1,299.30 an ounce, down 0.31 per cent and silver stood at USD 15.34 an ounce, lower by 0.13 per cent in New York.In the national capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity declined by Rs 280 to Rs 32,830 and Rs 32,660 per 10 gram, respectively. The precious metal had lost Rs 260 on Friday. Sovereign gold, however, remained flat at Rs 26,400 per eight gram.Tracking overall trend, silver ready too moved down by Rs 345 to Rs 38,725 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 477 to Rs 37,865 per kg.Silver coins dropped by Rs 1,000 to Rs 79,000 for buying and Rs 80,000 for selling of 100 pieces. Russia said it will take a wait and see approach on whether to extend OPEC+ output cuts because the market has achieved a fragile balance, contrasting with Saudi Arabia’s view there’s still more to be done to restore oil market fundamentals.“Currently, the price is acceptable to all the parties, both to consumers and producers, and you can see that the level of volatility is extremely low,” Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Bloomberg TV late Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan. “We may be balanced today but we don’t know what’s going to happen.”Uncertainties, including fluctuations in Venezuelan production, make it difficult to say what steps the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies should take in the second half of the year when the current deal expires, Novak said after a day of bilateral discussions with his OPEC+ counterparts.Russia thinks a decision on whether to extend cuts should be made

by May or June, Novak said at a briefing Sunday. That’s a more relaxed stance than that of Saudi Arabia, the de-facto OPEC leader. The Kingdom’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said at the briefing the job of stabilizing the oil market is “nowhere near complete” and OPEC+ needs to “stay the course” until June.

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 8830 TARGET 8845/8860/8890 SL 8770 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8800 TARGET 8785/8760/8740 SL 8860

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Cotton Seed Oilcake

1680 5272 4204 6589 2045

0.89 0.38 -0.1 0.09 2.18

Guar Seed 10 MT

4249

0.38

16140 3826 3631

-0.87 0.1 0.8

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY CORIANDER APR 6570 TARGET 6585/6600/6615 SL 6510 SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6530 TARGET 6515/6495/6470 SL 6590

El Nino may make a comeback this year to upset the expectations of a good monsoon, according to the latest report by the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).El Nino is a climate cycle formed in the Pacific Ocean with an impact on weather patterns across the globe. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator towards the coast of South America.

NOAA forecasters have said that there is a 60% chance of El Ni単o conditions continuing through June to August in India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, maintained that neutral El Ni単o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing at present, indicating weak El Ni単o formation."El Nino was supposed to start at the end of last year but it was wrongly predicted. Currently there is a very weak prevalence of El Ni単o. Some models suggest that it would retain for the next two to three months, and only thereafter it will weaken. Even at this stage it is weak," a scientist at IMD, Pune, told IANS.Earlier this year, the Ministry of Earth Sciences had said that there was no indication of El Nino developing and it wont have any impact on the upcoming monsoon."It is too early to talk about its impact on monsoon. May be around mid-April and May-end we will have a clear picture of El Nino's prevalence," IMD said.El Nino forecasts, issued in December 2018 by the IMD for the January-February-March period this year, maintained that the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), which is the main indicator of the development of the phenomenon, would remain slightly warm over the central Pacific region.Except for Kerala, all other subdivisions in the southern peninsular regions -- Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka -- received poor rainfall from October to December last year. The northeast monsoon ended up 44% deficient.

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.6075 Yen

61.6375

Euro

78.0250 GBP

91.1275

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 68.70 TARGET 68.8/68.8 SL 68.5 SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 68.5 TARGET 68.4/68.3 SL 68.7

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 91 TARGET 91.10/91.20 SL 90.8 SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 90.9 TARGET 90.8/90.7 SL 91.2

The Australian dollar fell on Thursday after reports that a meeting between China and the United States to end their trade war had been delayed.The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping won't occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest, Bloomberg reported. Australian dollar reacted the most to the report, falling to its lowest in three days at $0.7049, down 0.6 percent on the day.Concern remains that any escalation in the trade conflict will hit hard export -oriented economies such as Australia, whose biggest trading partner is China.The yuan was relatively stable in the offshore market. At 1030 GMT it was down half a percent at 6.7353, not far from a one-month low of 6.7372 CNH=D3The dollar gained for the first time in a week as the pound fell after a vote on Brexit that failed to deliver much clarity on where Britain's relationship with the European Union was headed.The pound had soared nearly 2 percent late on Wednesday after British lawmakers voted against a potentially disorderly "no-deal" departure from the European Union.The pound was down 0.9 percent at $1.3208 at 1040 GMT. Traders are bracing for a parliamentary vote later today that's expected to call for a short delay to Brexit.

The British pound edged lower in early European hours on Thursday, easing off Wednesday's nine-month high posted after U.K.lawmakers voted emphatically against leaving the EU without a transitional deal.The pound was down 0.2% at $1.3317 by 4:45AM ET (08:45 GMT), after rallying 2.1% a day earlier.The currency went as high as $1.3380, a level not seen since June 2018, after parliament's vote, which paves the way for a vote later Thursday that could delay Brexit until at least the end of June."Yesterday’s vote to reject a no-deal Brexit does not remove the risk of a disorderly Brexit on March 29," Singapore's DBS said in a note. "Hence, the pound's appreciation yesterday is still set on shaky and not on firm foundation."Analysts said the real test for sterling was yet to come as lawmakers still need to agree a way forward before an extension on Britain's exit could be obtained from the EU."If they manage to achieve cross-party support for a deal, likely a 'softer Brexit' sort of a deal – this could potentially be very good news for UK assets," said Russel Silberston, Co-Head of Multi Asset at Investec Asset Management.

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

18/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6570

18/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

18/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

MAR

18/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

18/03/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6585/6600/6615

6510

NOT EXECUTED

6530

6515/6495/6470

6590

TARGET

BUY

8830

8845/8860/8890

8770

TARGET

MAR

SELL

8800

8785/8760/8740

8860

NOT EXECUTED

MCX GOLD

APR

BUY

31780

31800/31850

31740

NOT EXECUTED

18/03/19

MCX GOLD

APR

SELL

31850

31800/31770

31920

TARGET

18/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

BUY

38300

38350/38400

38200

NOT EXECUTED

18/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

SELL

38120

38050/38000

38240

TARGET

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

18/03/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

11150-11160

11250-11300

11000

NOT EXECUTED

18/03/19

HPCL

FUTURE

BUY

268-270

273

265

TARGET

18/03/19

MCX

FUTURE

BUY

750-760

780/800/840

730

TARGET

18/03/19

ICICI

CASH

BUY

393-395

400-405

387

TARGET

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUA FORECAST PREVIOUS L

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, MARCH 18 10 am

Home builders' index

March

8:30 am

Housings starts*

Feb.

10 am

Factory orders* (new date)

Jan.

--

62

TUESDAY, MARCH 19 DELAYE D

-0.4%

0.1%

2.25-2.5%

2.25-2.5%

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20 2 pm

Federal Reserve announcement

2:30 pm

Jerome Powell press conference

THURSDAY, MARCH 21 8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

3/16

225,000

229,000

8:30 am

Philly Fed index

March

5.0

-4.1

--

-2.4%/GDP

9:45 am8:30Markit Nov. deficit* (new date) -am manufacturing index flash Current account 9:45 am

Markit services index flash

Nov.

Q4

--

55.7 54.8

10 am

Quarterly services survey* (new date)

Q4

--

--

10 am

Leading economic indicators

Feb.

--

-0.1%

9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI (flash)

March

--

53.0

9:45 am

Markit services PMI (flash)

March

--

56.0

10 am

Existing home sales

Feb.

5.10mln

4.94 mln

10 am

Wholesale inventories* (new date)

Jan.

--

1.1%

2 pm

Federal budget* (new date)

Feb.

--

-$215bln

FRIDAY, MARCH 22

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Special Report

19-MAR-2019

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Sachin Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-03-19 09:24+05:30

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