Special Report 18-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance US stocks fell more than 1 percent on Thursday as the European Commission issued a warning regarding Italy's budget and concerns mounted over the possibility of strained relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, further denting investors' appetite for risk amid global trade tensions and rising interest rates. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed just above its 200day moving average, a key indicator of long-term price trends. Stocks in Asia fell on Friday as global sentiment soured on issues ranging from trade worries, Italy's 2019 budget, higher U.S. interest rates and growth concerns in China that led to a slump in Chinese shares in the previous session. Early in the trading day, MSCI's broadest index of AsiaPacific shares outside Japan was 0.4 percent weaker following losses on Wall Street overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.27 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1.44 percent and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.06 percent.Australian shares were down 0.6 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock index was 1.7 percent lower. On Thursday, the flight to safe-haven assets partly offset a rise in U.S. Treasury yields sparked by worries about the pace of interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Early in Asia on Friday, the 10-year yield <US10YT=RR> was higher at 3.1767 percent, compared with a U.S. close of 3.175 percent on Thursday. PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF The market is likely to take cues from the negative sentiment across the globe. Asian and US markets have shown downward trends, while the Nifty futures on Singaporean Exchange also hint at a lower opening. The market was in a bear trap on October 18 after consistent upmove in previous three consecutive trading sessions. The Nifty started the day with a 100-point rally but wiped out all gains in afternoon trade to close below the 10,500 levels and formed 'Bearish Engulfing' pattern on the daily candlestick charts.A Bearish Engulfing Pattern consists of two candles. The Nifty index opened gap up with 104 points gains at 10,688.70 to hit an intraday high of 10,710.15 but failed to hold its gains and corrected sharply in afternoon trade to hit day's low of 10,436.45. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-65.90pts], Consumption[-53.95pts],PSE[-49.50pts],CPSE[31.85pts],Energy[-191.45pts],FMCG[125.10pts],Auto[268.20pts],Pharma[-150.35pts],IT[62.25pts],Metal[68.65pts],Realty[-6.15 pts], Fin Serv sector[-211.65pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
DJI
25,379.45
-1.27
S&P500
2,778.00
0.20
NASDAQ FTSE100
7,485.14 7,026.99
-2.06
22,380.27 22,380.27
-1.24 -1.24
NIKKEI HANG SENG
-0.39
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
HCL Tech
1,024.25
20.85
2.08
Infosys
705.35
10.10
1.45
ITC
286.45
3.80
1.34
Wipro
323.15
4.10
1.29
Coal India
279.90
3.50
1.27
CMP
Change
% Chg
788.65 2,150.50 231.90 313.90
-118.70 -158.35 -17.00 -19.45
-13.08 -6.86 -6.83 -5.83
285.15
-16.95
-5.61
Top Losers Company
Indiabulls Hsg Bajaj Finance Yes Bank Adani Ports BPCL
Stocks at 52 Weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s HIGH Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ICICILIQ
999.99
0.01
0
8.3
0.4
4.82
LIQUIDETF
999.99
0.01
0
TIIL
599.65
-22.65
-3.78
-
-
-
JAINSTUDIO
-
Stocks at 52 Weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s LOW Symbol
8KMILES ABGSHIP ABMINTLTD ADLABS ADROITINFO
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
120.15 3.75 16.6 12.9 22.65
-6 -0.15 -0.6 -0.6 0.75
-4.99 -4 -3.61 -4.65 3.31
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10453.00
-131.80
-1.25
SENSEX
34779.58
-382.90
-1.09
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.ONGC [FUTURE ] From its crucial resistance level of 254 the stock has got resistance and closed with a bearish candle which signifies that the bear run has not come to an end, it may reach upto its next support level of 230 and if it breaks this level then one sided downfall can be found so we advice you to sell ongc around 230-228 for the targets of 224-220 with stoploss above 234.
2.MANAPPURAM [FUTURE] The stock got rejection from its crucial resistance level of 76 and closed with a long bearish candle which signifies that the bears have overtook the market, it may reach upto the level of 69 which is its next support level and if it break this level then 2-3% downside movement can be found so we advice you to sell manappuram at its current for the targets of 69-66 with stoploss above 74.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] EDELWEISS - [CASH] This stock has got resistance from its crucial resistance level of 188 and closed with a bearish candle which signifies that the bear run has not come to an end, it may reach upto the level of 158 which is its next support level so we advice you to sell edelweiss at its current for the targets of 163-158 with stoploss above 171.
MACRO NEW Negative global cues have weighed on Nifty futures on the Singaporean exchange as well. The SGX Nifty is trading over 70 points lower, hinting at a lower start on Friday morning here and is likely to test 10,300mark as well. Oil prices nudged higher on Friday but were set for a second weekly drop amid higher US crude inventories, an ongoing Sino-US trade war and concerns over the death of a prominent Saudi journalist, according to a Reuters report. For the week, US crude was down 3.5 percent, while Brent was 1.1 percent lower, putting both on track for a second consecutive weekly decline. Reliance Industries reported a 0.6 percent sequential growth in consolidated profit to Rs 9,516 crore for the quarter ended September 2018. Good petrochemical and telecom businesses offset lower other income and weak refining business. Consolidated revenue during the quarter grew by 11.3 percent to Rs 1.43 lakh crore driven by growth across segments QoQ. Profit on year increased 17.35 percent and revenue jumped 56.66 percent in second quarter. The Trump administration has said it is coming out with new proposals to not only revise the definition of specialty occupations under H-1B visas, but also the definition of employment under this foreign work visa category which is popular among Indian companies, according to a report by PTI.
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Traded Volume (Contracts)
ACC Q2: Consolidated net profit rises 15.2 percent to Rs 209.1 crore versus Rs 181.5 crore; revenue increases 10.2 percent to Rs 3,433.2 crore versus Rs 3,116.5 crore YoY.
12,31,600 11,41,960
Mindtree Q2: Profit jumps 30.4 percent to Rs 206.3 crore versus Rs 158.2 crore; revenue rises 7.1 percent to Rs 1,755.4 crore versus Rs 1,639.5 crore; constant currency revenue growth at 2.4% QoQ.
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,700
0.05 11,21,590
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,800
0.1 10,40,928
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,600
0.05
9,35,811
RELIANCE
CE
1,200
10.8
9,403
INFY
CE
720
5.85
7,798
29,50,000 NIFTY FUTURE 18,62,400
RELIANCE
CE
1,180 15.95
7,033
21,33,000
INFY
CE
710
8.8
5,479
11,12,400
RELIANCE
CE
1,220
6.75
5,409
15,58,000
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,500
BANKNIFTY
Open Interest
11,44,200
2,83,500
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
297
14,78,178
PE
25,400 191.05
14,63,362
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,300
109
10,31,828
INFY
PE
700
12.1
7,922
RELIANCE
PE
1,140
22.7
5,814
RELIANCE
PE
1,100
9.7
5,663
RELIANCE
PE
1,160
33
5,520
IBULHSGFIN
PE
800
66
5,201
Open Interest
2,72,160 After making a reversal candle on 11oct the index 1,01,840 showed four days upward movement but yesterday trading session it made a bearish engulf candle which 1,37,680 shows that the bears overtook the market from its 11,38,800 crucial resistance level of 10700 now 10415 is the 10,22,000 nearest support level from where a short time reversal can be found since on 15oct it rebounded from this level 17,16,000 so from here a long position can be made in nifty future 9,43,000 around 10440-450 for the targets of 10530-570 with 4,12,000 stoploss below 10400.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
30166
2710.19
28630
2523.88
INDEX OPTIONS
1033760
97284.06
1016949
STOCK FUTURES
197118
12013.78
STOCK OPTIONS
107758
7477.41
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
280504
22358.88
186.3106
95806.16
1042869
86041.12
1477.9027
194079
11695.34
1292331
85587.24
318.4417
104350
7310.84
143330
9571.43
166.5658 2149.2208
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
10807.00
10630.00
10533.00
10356.00
10259.00
BANKNIFTY
26215.00
25701.00
25401.00
24887.00
24587.00
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD DEC FUT ABOVE 31950 TGT 32000 32050 SL BELOW 31900 SELL GOLD DEC FUT BELOW 31850 TGT 31800 31750 SL ABOVE 31900
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER DEC FUT ABOVE 39200 TGT 39250 39300 SL BELOW 39150 SELL SILVER DEC FUT BELOW 38740 TGT 38700 38650 SL ABOVE 38800
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Oil slipped below $80 a barrel on Thursday as the fourth weekly increase in U.S. crude inventories suggested ample supply, while Saudi-U.S. tension and falling Iranian exports lent support. U.S. crude inventories rose 6.5 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, the fourth straight weekly increase and almost three times what analysts had forecast. EIA/S. Brent crude LCOc1 , the global benchmark, was down 50 cents at $79.55 a barrel at 0840 GMT. It has dropped over $7 from a 2014 high of $86.74 reached on Oct. 3. U.S. crude CLc1 was down 28 cents at $69.47. "Stocks are building," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. "It's a continuous trend. Week after week, it does start to add up."Oil had been rising this week on concern about a decline in Iranian exports due to U.S. sanctions and tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership over the disappearance of the Saudi critic, suggesting sanctions could be possible. Saudi Arabia denies that it had any role in Khashoggi's disappearance. President Donald Trump on Wednesday gave Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt in the journalist's disappearance, suggesting the White House may not take additional action against Saudi Arabia. Gold prices fell by 0.19 per cent to Rs 31,806 per ten gram in futures trade Wednesday as participants trimmed their positions in line with weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in December declined by Rs 62, or 0.19 per cent, to Rs 31,806 per ten gram in a business turnover of 13,379 lots. The precious metal to be delivered in November contracts also fell by Rs 60, or 0.19 per cent, to quote at Rs 31,641 per ten gram with a business volume of 23,444 lots. Gold rallied by Rs 110 to Rs 31,460 per 10 gram at the bullion market today, tracking a firm trend overseas amid sustained buying by local jewellers. Silver also advanced by Rs 175 to Rs 39,375 per kg due to increased offtake by industrial units and coin makers. Traders said sentiment remained upbeat on the back of a firm trend overseas as the dollar eased amid fresh concerns of trade tensions between the US and China. In sync with gold, silver ready strengthened by Rs 175 to Rs 39,375 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 205 to Rs 38,525 per kg. Silver coins however continued to trade at last level of Rs 74,000 for buying and Rs 75,000 for selling of 100 pieces.
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9580 TARGET 9630 9680 SL 9530 SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 9220 TARGET 9170 9120 SL 9270
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1827.5 5172 4137 5570 1809.5 4543
0.66 2.38 0.95 3.26 1.34 3.2
Jeera
20250
1.07
4186 3302 6532
0.65 0.86 0.37
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY CORIANDER OCT ABOVE 5600 TARGET 5650 5700 SL 5550 SELL CORIANDER OCT BELOW 5500 TARGET 5550 5600 SL 5450
Turmeric prices were trading up by 0.46 per cent to Rs 6,526 per quintal in futures trade Wednesday as participants built up fresh positions, mainly driven by uptick in domestic and export demand in the spot market. Besides, limited arrivals from major producing regions fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, turmeric for delivery in December month was trading higher by Rs 30, or 0.46 per cent, to Rs 6,526 per quintal with an open interest of 1,195 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in November month increased by Rs 18, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 6,526 per quintal, in an open interest of 12,490 lots. Chana prices declined by 0.34 per cent to Rs 4,084 per quintal in futures market Wednesday as speculators booked profits amid ample stocks position at the spot market against low demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in November fell by Rs 16, or 0.34 per cent, to Rs 4,084 per quintal with an open interest of 43,980 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in December shed Rs 11, or 0.27 per cent to Rs 4,102 per quintal in 10,680 lots. Heavy rain in Kerala and parts of Karnataka in the past two months has damaged the arecanut crop. Growers are also expecting a sharp drop in production in the coming harvest as they struggle to cope with illegal imports into the country. â&#x20AC;&#x153;We expect 35 per cent shortfall in the crop. Rains have led to disease of the nuts,â&#x20AC;? said M Suresh Bhandary, MD of Mangalore-based Campco, which buys large quantities of nuts. Arecanut, a chief ingredient of pan masala, is mainly grown in Karnataka, Kerala and Assam. As per advance estimates of production by Directorate of Arecanut and Spices Development, output was 822,495 tonnes in 2017-18, a marginal rise from the previous year. Though area under the nut has remained stagnant, productivity has gone up in certain regions.
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
73.4846 Yen
65.4700
Euro
84.9800 GBP
96.8684
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 74.00 TGT 74.50/75.00 SL BELOW 73.50 SELL USDINR BELOW 73.50 TGT 73.00/72.50 SL ABOVE 74.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 97.70 TGT 98.20/98.70 SL BELOW 97.20 SELL GBPINR BELOW 96.50 TGT 96.00/95.50 SL ABOVE 97.00
The dollar rallied to a one-week high against its rivals on Thursday as upbeat Fed minutes confirmed that policymakers are likely to raise interest rates a few more times until end-2019. While interest rate differentials haven't played a big role in the first half of the year in predicting currency trends as trade war concerns have dominated sentiment, that relationship has begun to exert its influence again in recent weeks. The gap between ten-year U.S. yields and its German counterparts has widened out to three-decade highs of 274 basis points and market watchers expect the spread to widen more in the coming months. The minutes from the Fed's Sept. 25-26 meeting showed every Fed policymaker backed raising interest rates and also generally agreed borrowing costs were set to rise further, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's view that the tightening have already gone too far. minutes confirm that policymakers are expected to raise rates more over the next year and that is helping the dollar gain and the risk off moves last night in Asian stocks is also another factor," said Richard Falkenhall, senior FX strategist at SEB in Stockholm.China's benchmark stock index . SSEC skidded to four-year lows, sapping appetite for risk taking with the euro EURCHF= down 0.1 percent against the perceived safe-haven Swiss Franc.Interest rate futures are now pricing in an 83 percent likelihood that the Fed raises rates in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the fourth hike this year. Two more increases are expected next year.Against a basket of its rivals =USD .DXY , the dollar gained for a third consecutive day, up 0.2 percent at 95.78. A semi-annual report by the U.S. Treasury report released overnight refrained from naming China directly as a currency manipulator though market watchers said Washington will closely monitor the Chinese currency's moves. Bank strategists termed the report "as a bit of an escalation without being too dramatic". The Chinese currency traded in the offshore market CNH=D3 was trading near a three-month low against the dollar at 6.9385 yuan per dollar. The euro EUR= changed hands at $1.1497 on Thursday, trading flat versus the greenback, after losing 0.65 percent on Wednesday.
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
17/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
17/10/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
17/10/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
BUY
5450
5500 5550
5400
OPEN
SEP
SELL
5330
5280 5230
5380
NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
BUY
9580
9630 9680
9530
NOT EXECUTED
17/10/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9220
9170 9120
9270
NOT EXECUTED
17/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
32210
32250 32300
32160
NOT EXECUTED
17/10/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
32030
32000 31150
32080
SL TRIGGERED
17/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
39380
39430 39480
39330
NOT EXECUTED
17/10/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
39120
38070 38020
39170
NOT EXECUTED
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
17/10/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
10630-50
10700-750
10580
SL TRIGGERED
17/10/18
GRANULES
FUTURE
BUY
1040.70
1060
1035
SL TRIGGERED
17/10/18
TORNTPOWER
FUTURE
BUY
245.25
250
240
SL TRIGGERED
17/10/18
EQUITAS
CASH
BUY
138
128
SL TRIGGERED
131.60
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Special Report 18-Oct-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, OCT. 15 8:30 am
Retail sales
Sept.
0.1%
8:30 am 8:30 am
Empire State index
Oct.
19.0
10 am
Business inventories
Aug.
0.6%
TUESDAY, OCT. 16 9:15 am
Industrial production
Sept.
0.4%
9:15 am
Capacity utilization
Sept.
78.1%
10 am 10 am
Home builders' index
Oct.
67
WEDNESDA Y, OCT. 17
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17
WEDNESD AY, OCT. 17
8:30 am
Housing starts
Sept.
1.28 mln
8:30 am
Building permits
Sept.
1.25 mln
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17
WEDNESDA Y, OCT. 17
2 pm THURSDAY, OCT. 18
THURSDAY, OCT. 18
THURSDA THURSDAY, OCT. 18 Disclaimer Y, OCT. 18
THURSDAY, OCT. 18
THURSDAY, OCT. 18
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