Special report-20-mar-2019-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report

20-MAR-2019

Global markets at a glance The benchmark S&P 500 index ended little changed on Tuesday as investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve’s expected affirmation of its dovish policy stance was offset by reports of fault lines emerging in ongoing USChina trade negotiations.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26.72 points, or 0.1 percent, to 25,887.38, the S&P 500 lost 0.37 points, or 0.01 percent, to 2,832.57 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.47 points, or 0.12 percent, to 7,723.95. Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Wednesday, holding close to six-month highs on hopes the US Federal Reserve will stick to a dovish stance and unveil a plan to stop cutting bond holdings later this year.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked down 0.1 percent from a six-month high touched the previous day. Japan’s Nikkei was also down 0.1 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 3.5 points or 0.03 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,572-level on the Singaporean Exchange. PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets closed the trade on a volatile note as pendulum swings weighed in. Nifty continued its positive momentum, closing higher for the sixth trading day in a row. Reliance Industries contributed majority of the gains in Nifty and added fresh long positions as open positions continued to soar higher along with a rise in the stock price.Bajaj Finance added fresh long positions and is just ~2% away from breaching its life time high level. Midcap stocks continued their underperformance for the fourth day in a row as sharp selling was seen in major midcap names. Nifty Bank index gained ~0.75% led by strong gains in Axis & Kotak Bank. Market breadth ended in the favor of declines with the advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1.5x.

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25887

-0.10

S&P500

2832

-0.01

NASDAQ

7723

+0.12

FTSE100

7324

+0.34

21576 29316

+0.04 -0.51

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Bharti Infratel

327.6

9.5

2.99

1,036.20

24.2

2.39

134.9

2.6

1.97

1,376.55

26.5

1.96

299.45

5.7

1.94

CMP

Change

% Chg

21,759.10 288.5 2,614.05 1,357.95 6,825.20

-492.3 -6.45 -55.45 -20.95 -83.9

-2.21 -2.19 -2.08 -1.52 -1.21

HCL Tech NTPC Reliance ITC

Top Losers Company

Eicher Motors JSW Steel Hero Motocorp Larsen Maruti Suzuki

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

5.8

0.25

4.5

831.35

39.55

4.99

AXISBANK

756

19.3

2.63

BANKBEES

3,051.30

22.34

0.75

BILENERGY

2.4

0.1

4.35

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

14.85

0

0

0.4

0.05

12.5

4.85 1.65 8.55

-0.1 -0.05 -0.45

-1.96 -2.94 -5

ALOKTEXT ARVINDFASN

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+24.8pts], Consumption[+11.8pts],PSE[+37.15pts],CPSE [+26.15pts],Energy[+260.75pts],FMCG[+260.85pts],Auto[60.pts],Pharma[+39.65pts],IT[+136.10pts],Metal[ 1.00pts],Realty[+0.30pts], Fin Serv sector[+44.90pts].

ABMINTLTD BILPOWER CYBERMEDIA DNAMEDIA FEDDERELEC

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11532

+70.20

+0.61

SENSEX

38363

+268.4

+0.70

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. HPCL [FUTURE ]

ICICI BANK [CASH] ICICI BANK looking good & traded at all time high .In bankinkg space icici bank perfoming outstanding .Our view is bullish & suggest to buy stock in range 395 target 400-405 sl below 390 .Stock is treaded above all its important moving averages.

HPCL– In last week seen that buying in Oil & gas companies share like HPCL ,BPCL , IGL . On weekly chart green large candle formed & closing of stock above 200 DEMA. Stock also give breakout of resistense near 260-264 . From now we expect that buying in HPCL continue in upcoming week also. Our view is bullish & recommendation is to Buy for the target of 295/300. Buy on decline in between 288-290 Sl below 282. HPCL is going to replace from britannia in Nifty 50 from March 29, 2019. So , it may possible that Mutual fund housees may reduce some part of exposeer from this stock .

MACRO NEWS 

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, retreating from a fourmonth high, as concerns that trade talks between the United States and China have stalled, stoking fears over the outlook for global economic growth.International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.49 a barrel at 0107 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent touched $68.20 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest since November 16.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.86 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement. WTI hit a high of $59.57 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest since November 12.

A senior US arms control official said on March 19 that the only way for North Korea to achieve security and development is to abandon all of its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programmes.Yleem Poblete, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, urged countries to halt any weapons or military cooperation with North Korea. "You are violating UN Security Council resolutions that explicitly prohibit such transfers," she said.

2. MCX [FUTURE] MCX— On weekly chart stock give trendline breakout & seen that hammer pattern followed by three white soldiers ,both this are bullish pattern .Our view on the technical basis is to buy stock future in range 800 Target 820/840 Sl below 780 . Strong base was formed in stock near 660-670 .

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

CE

30,000

BANKNIFTY

Traded Volume (Contracts)

54

8,29,722

CE

29,900 83.95

7,19,575

BANKNIFTY

CE

29,800 123.05

6,41,747

RELIANCE

CE

1,400

16.7

18,140

7,76,660 Reliance Communications: The agreements dated December 28, 2017 and August 11, 2018 entered into 4,44,720 between company, RTL, RITL (RCOM Group) and Reliance 4,23,620 Jio respectively for sale of certain specified telecom assets have been terminated today by mutual agreement 12,63,500

RELIANCE

CE

1,380

26.2

16,321

10,32,500 NIFTY FUTURE

RELIANCE

CE

1,360

38

11,159

PNB

CE

95

1.3

8,327

RELIANCE

CE

1,420

10.2

7,897

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

Open Interest

HCL Technologies entered into a shared services arrangement with Xerox Corporation

LTP

8,73,000

NIFTY - On Thursday market is in narrow range due to 60,41,000 weekly expiry of Nifty 50 option . Nifty opened at high 5,51,000 but not sustain & last two days Pre –Election rally has stoped for a time being ,but it may expected to be 2,83,500 contiune upto 11500 . Buying in Banking, NBFC , & Open Reality sector .On teachnical point of view nifty broke a Interest channel line & our recommendation is to Buy nifty future on decline in range 11400 Target 11500/11570 Sl 11350.

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

PE

29,500 26.25

8,30,888

8,69,340

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,600 42.35

6,03,801

5,50,660

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,400 16.05

5,19,294

3,32,800

RELIANCE

PE

1,340

10.2

10,724

10,52,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,300

4.8

7,102

14,95,000

RELIANCE

PE

1,360

15.4

6,618

6,23,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,320

6.65

6,325

8,86,000

MINDTREE

PE

940 11.45

4,206

9,97,800

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

61752

4625.54

52201

3797.56

333651

26741.09

827.9822

INDEX OPTIONS

3431770

225369.27

3425525

224818.05

1030800

79742.71

551.2238

STOCK FUTURES

189178

11931.33

202116

12733.15

1449156

91856.92

-801.8185

STOCK OPTIONS

156784

10119.09

155849

10059.90

138378

8721.81

59.1966 636.5841

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11601

11567

11509

11474

11416

BANKNIFTY

29957

29862

29705

29610

29453

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: Gold BUY ABOVE 31780 TARGET 31800/31850 SL 31740 Gold Sell BELOW 31680 TARGET 31650/31600 SL 31750

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver BUY ABOVE 38300 TARGET 38350/38400 SL 38200 Silver Sell BELOW 38120 TARGET 38050/38000 SL 38240

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Bloomberg TV late Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan. “We may be balanced today but we don’t know what’s going to happen.”Uncertainties, including fluctuations in Venezuelan production, make it difficult to say what steps the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies should take in the second half of the year when the current deal expires, Novak said after a day of bilateral discussions with his OPEC+ counterparts.Russia thinks a decision on whether to extend cuts should be made by May or June, Novak said at a briefing Sunday. That’s a more relaxed stance than that of Saudi Arabia, the de-facto OPEC leader. The Kingdom’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said at the briefing the job of stabilizing the oil market is “nowhere near complete” and OPEC+ needs to “stay the course” until June. "Gold has been edging up and the main driver is a softening dollar," said Margaret Yang, a market analyst with CMC (NS:CMC) Markets, Singapore. The Fed decision and Brexit vote could be gold boosters in the short term, she added.The U.S. central bank will start its two-day meeting on interest rates later in the day.If the Fed is more dovish than expected, the dollar is likely to move lower and in turn support gold prices, while uncertainty surrounding Brexit has increased demand for safety, Yang said.Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans were thrown into further turmoil on Monday when the speaker of parliament ruled that she could not put her divorce deal to a new vote unless it was re-submitted in a fundamentally different form. is often used as a hedge against political and financial uncertainties.Indicative of investor sentiment, holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose about 1.1 percent on Monday, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Jan. 18. GOL/ETF. Venezuela has suspended its oil exports to India and views Russia and China as its main export destinations, the Azeri energy ministry said on Tuesday, citing Venezuela's oil minister.The Azeri ministry issued the statement on Tuesday following talks in Baku between Azerbaijan's energy minister and Venezuelan oil minister and president of state-run oil company PDVSA, Manuel Quevedo."At the meeting... Quevedo said in order to prevent a sharp reduction, various measures are being implemented and diversification of the export market is underway," the statement said.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 8700 TARGET 8715/8735/8760 SL 8640 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8600 TARGET 8585/8565/6540 SL 8660

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Cotton Seed Oilcake

1680 5272 4204 6589 2045

0.89 0.38 -0.1 0.09 2.18

Guar Seed 10 MT

4249

0.38

16140 3826 3631

-0.87 0.1 0.8

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY CORIANDER APR 6600 TARGET 6615/6635/6600 SL 6540 SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6530 TARGET 6515/6495/6470 SL 6590

India’s fuel demand rose 3.8% in February as free cooking gas connections spurred LPG consumption while petrol and diesel use continued to rise.Fuel consumption in February totalled 17.41 million tonnes as compared to 16.77 million tonnes in the same month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Oil Ministry showed.Consumption rose for the third month in a row as ensuing general elections are likely to spike demand further. With retail prices moderating, petrol consumption soared 8% to 2.25 million tonnes while the government push to give every household a cooking gas connection led to LPG demand spiking by 14.2% to 2.2 million tonnes. Diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country, saw consumption rise by 2.7 per cent to 6.7 million tonnes. During February, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sales were up 10.5 per cent to 6,80,000 tonnes.With the government pushing for use of cleaner liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as cooking fuel by giving free connections to poor women, kerosene usage dropped 12% to 272,000 tonnes in February when compared to the year-ago period.Naphtha sales were up by a steep 25.2% at 1.28 million tonnes as power demand soared, while consumption of petroleum coke dropped 15.3% to 1.58 million tonnes. The price of natural gas may go up by as much as 18% from April 2019, according to CARE Ratings' report. As per the New Domestic Gas policy of 2014, which suggests revising natural gas prices every six months, the government may be revising domestic gas prices effective from 1 April 2019, according to the report. The prices of natural gas produced in deep water and high-pressure high temperature may also be revised."We believe the prices of domestic natural gas for the April 2019-September 2019 period will increase from the current $3.36/mmBtu to approximately, $3.97/mmBtu, resulting in an 18% increase.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.6075 Yen

61.6375

Euro

78.0250 GBP

91.1275

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 68.70 TARGET 68.8/68.8 SL 68.5 SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 68.5 TARGET 68.4/68.3 SL 68.7

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 91 TARGET 91.10/91.20 SL 90.8 SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 90.9 TARGET 90.8/90.7 SL 91.2

The British pound edged lower in early European hours on Thursday, easing off Wednesday's nine-month high posted after U.K.lawmakers voted emphatically against leaving the EU without a transitional deal.The pound was down 0.2% at $1.3317 by 4:45AM ET (08:45 GMT), after rallying 2.1% a day earlier.The currency went as high as $1.3380, a level not seen since June 2018, after parliament's vote, which paves the way for a vote later Thursday that could delay Brexit until at least the end of June."Yesterday’s vote to reject a no-deal Brexit does not remove the risk of a disorderly Brexit on March 29," Singapore's DBS said in a The Japanese yen rose on Tuesday, benefiting from a U.S. dollar hit by concern over the U.S. economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will prove accommodative at a meeting this week. The euro also profited from the weaker dollar, adding 0.2 percent to $1.1348 EUR=EBS .Markets expect the Fed to strike a dovish tone when it meets this week, and bets on an interest rate cut have increased after weaker-thanexpected manufacturing data on Friday. U.S. currency, measured against a basket of rivals, has weakened 1.3 percent in the last 10 days. On Tuesday, it fell 0.2 percent to 96.415 .DXY.The Australian dollar has gained the most from the U.S. dollar's retreat. The New Zealand NZD=D3 and Canadian dollar CAD=D3 are also performing well. Washington does not turn more aggressive on trade in the near future, expect this more benign environment to continue and to allow local stories to win through ... ," ING analysts said.Volatility in foreign exchange markets is at its lowest in five years and analysts say recent decisions by the Fed and other major central banks is contributing. Sterling GBP=D3 also gained, rising almost a fifth of a percent to $1.3280. It had fallen overnight after the speaker of Britain's parliament upended Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans by ruling that she had to change her twice-defeated deal before offering it for a third vote. Bank of England is expected to leave its interest rate outlook unchanged at a policy meeting on Thursday because of the uncertainty over Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

19/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6570

19/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

19/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

APR

19/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

19/03/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6585/6600/6615

6510

NOT EXECUTED

6530

6515/6495/6470

6590

TARGET

BUY

8830

8845/8860/8890

8770

TARGET

APR

SELL

8800

8785/8760/8740

8860

NOT EXECUTED

MCX GOLD

APR

BUY

31780

31800/31850

31740

NOT EXECUTED

19/03/19

MCX GOLD

APR

SELL

31850

31800/31770

31920

TARGET

19/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

BUY

38300

38350/38400

38200

NOT EXECUTED

19/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

SELL

38120

38050/38000

38240

TARGET

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

19/03/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

11150-11160

11250-11300

11000

NOT EXECUTED

19/03/19

HPCL

FUTURE

BUY

268-270

273

265

TARGET

19/03/19

MCX

FUTURE

BUY

750-760

780/800/840

730

TARGET

19/03/19

ICICI

CASH

BUY

393-395

400-405

387

TARGET

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUA FORECAST PREVIOUS L

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, MARCH 18 10 am

Home builders' index

March

8:30 am

Housings starts*

Feb.

10 am

Factory orders* (new date)

Jan.

--

62

TUESDAY, MARCH 19 DELAYE D

-0.4%

0.1%

2.25-2.5%

2.25-2.5%

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20 2 pm

Federal Reserve announcement

2:30 pm

Jerome Powell press conference

THURSDAY, MARCH 21 8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

3/16

225,000

229,000

8:30 am

Philly Fed index

March

5.0

-4.1

--

-2.4%/GDP

9:45 am8:30Markit Nov. deficit* (new date) -am manufacturing index flash Current account 9:45 am

Markit services index flash

Nov.

Q4

--

55.7 54.8

10 am

Quarterly services survey* (new date)

Q4

--

--

10 am

Leading economic indicators

Feb.

--

-0.1%

9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI (flash)

March

--

53.0

9:45 am

Markit services PMI (flash)

March

--

56.0

10 am

Existing home sales

Feb.

5.10mln

4.94 mln

10 am

Wholesale inventories* (new date)

Jan.

--

1.1%

2 pm

Federal budget* (new date)

Feb.

--

-$215bln

FRIDAY, MARCH 22

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Special Report

20-MAR-2019

Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

Sachin Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-03-20 09:24+05:30

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.