Special report-24-september-2018-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report 24-Sep-2018

Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 and Dow reached record highs on Friday ahead of Monday's major sector reshuffle, capping a week that largely shrugged off trade worries. Trading volume was expected to spike in anticipation of the S&P 500 sector change, when telecom will be folded into a new sector called communications services, along with heavy-hitting stocks such as Amazon.com, Facebook Inc and Walt Disney Co. The S&P 500 and the Dow were up, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq losing ground. All three were on track to post their second consecutive weekly gains, with the blue-chip Dow on its way to its best weekly percentage gain in over two months. "Quadruple witching," when stock options and futures expire, and the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 rebalance of their indexes, were also seen contributing to heavier trading traffic. Asia shares eased in holiday-thinned trading on Monday and the safe haven yen gained as China canceled upcoming tariff talks with the United States, while oil prices jumped after top producers including Russia ruled out boosting crude output.US stock futures were a touch weaker while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.3 percent. Previous day Roundup Bears retained a tight grip on Dalal Street for the fourth day in a row on September 21, as the Nifty 50 - after gap up opening - fell sharply in the afternoon and broke crucial support of 11,000, but managed to pull back some losses in the latter part of the session to close off the day's low. The free fall in Yes Bank after RBI's decision to end Rana Kapoor's term as CEO, and impact of the weakness in the rupee and hardening bond yield, started reflecting on NBFCs as sentiments were hit across sectors. The Nifty Midcap index dropped 2.5 percent while Nifty Bank was down 2.6 percent and Realty lost 3.5 percent followed by auto, financial service and pharma.The Nifty 50 started the day on a strong note at 11,271.30 and hit the day's high of 11,346.80 following positive global cues, and due to short covering, but suddenly crashed in the afternoon to break the 11,000-mark and hit an intraday low of 10,866.45, which last seen on July 9, showing a loss of 368 points intraday. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-1.45], Co nsum ptio n[ -20 .70 pts],Bank[ -680 .4 5 pts],Auto [ 120.50pts],FinService[-114.60pts],Fmcg[-80.80pts],Media[120.50pts],Pharma[-204.60pts],IT[-230.45pts],Metal[18.55pts],Realty[-9.05 pts], Pvt Bank[-519.30pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

26,743.50

0.32

S&P500

2,927.75

-0.20

NASDAQ

7,521.25

-0.32

FTSE100

7,490.23

1.64

23,869.93 27,603.08

0.82 -1.27

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Bharti Infratel

281.20

10.30

3.80

BPCL

376.50

11.45

3.14

HPCL

258.00

6.65

2.65

Hindalco

240.40

4.75

2.02

ONGC

180.40

3.40

1.92

CMP

Change

% Chg

226.50 2,379.40 738.05 665.80 1,180.20

-92.70 -120.15 -31.90 -26.50 -46.70

-29.04 -4.81 -4.14 -3.83 -3.8

Top Losers Company

Yes Bank Bajaj Finance Tech Mahindra UPL Kotak Mahindra

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW DEEPAKNTR

25.55 289.2

1.25 -14.2

4.89 -4.91

DELTAMAGNT

130.25

4.75

3.65

DRREDDY

2607.1

-30.4

-1.17

ELECTROSL

19.4

0.95

4.9

GANGOTRI

4.25

0.2

4.71

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

18.75 28.7 104.75 127.25 372.4

-1.4 -1.1 -10.75 -5.85 -7.5

-7.47 -3.83 -10.26 -4.6 -2.01

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

A2ZINFRA AARVEEDEN ABAN ABCAPITAL ADANIPORTS

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11143.10

-91.30

-0.81

SENSEX

36841.60

-279.62

-0.75

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. IRB [FUTURE ] After consolidating within a range the particular counter brooked its support level of 168.40 and closed below it .Today it may show some correction upto 148, from that level we can short so we advice to sell IRB infra future around 158-157.50 for the targets of 155-153 with stoploss above 160.

2. INDIGO [FUTURE] Respecting the support level of 860 the particular counter is showing bounce back closed with a hanging man candlle .Here we can get the chance of buy on dip oportunity around the levels of 870-874 for the targets of 885-895 with stoploss below 860.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] VIPIND [CASH] This particular counter is showing a clear downtrend ,515 is a nearest support level below which it has made a claer cut breakout, we can withness freefall as per the market weakness, sell on low should be considered so we suggest to sell vipind around 515-514 for the targets of 508-500 with stoploss above 520.

MACRO NEWS  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 22 points or 0.2 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,149level on the Singaporean Exchange.  China's spiralling debt, a major concern for the slowing down of its economy, has risen to USD 2.58 trillion, a media report said Sunday. The country's top legislative body has decided that the upper limit for local government debt this year should be 21 trillion yuan.China's local government debt balance stood at 17.66 trillion yuan (USD 2.58 trillion) by the end of August, but it remained within the official limit, staterun Xinhua news agency reported, quoting the Ministry of Finance. Over 526.6 billion yuan worth of the financing tools issued last month were specialpurpose bonds for the development of public-interest projects, marking a substantial increase from 196 billion yuan in July.  Oil prices rose on Monday as US markets tightened just weeks ahead of Washington’s plan to impose new sanctions against Iran. Brent crude futures were at $79.74 per barrel at 0036 GMT, up by 94 cents, or 1.2 percent. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 74 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $71.52 a barrel.  Overseas investors have pulled out a massive Rs 15,365 crore ($2.1 billion) from the capital markets so far in September, after putting in funds during the previous two months, on widening current account

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

Infosys: Company partners with Google Cloud to develop data native intelligent enterprise.

Tata Steel and Usha Martin: Usha Martin sold steel business to Tata Steel through a slump sale for Rs 4,300-4,700 crore. Stata Bank of India: The bank concluded the issuance of $650 Mio Green Senior Unsecured Fixed Rate Notes under $10 billion MTN programme.

NIFTY

CE

11,400 12.55

5,44,517

34,44,975

NIFTY

CE

11,300

30.3

4,72,238

22,30,500 

BANKNIFTY

CE

26,500 26.35

3,62,795

7,65,920

NIFTY

CE

11,200 66.55

3,25,443

21,16,875

YESBANK

CE

300

1.1

21,326

59,37,750

YESBANK

CE

270

2.85

19,555

30,62,500

RELIANCE

CE

1,240

10.1

18,591

18,98,000

YESBANK

CE

280

2.1

17,388

29,97,750

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST

NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

PE

11,000

34.3

4,05,909

41,10,075

NIFTY

PE

11,100

55

3,79,818

30,47,250

NIFTY

PE

11,200 91.15

3,75,686

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,000

435

3,28,494

RELIANCE

PE

1,200

10.2

16,297

YESBANK

PE

220

13

14,346

YESBANK

PE

250

30.5

12,861

YESBANK

PE

240 23.95

12,429

29,34,750 The Nifty future confirmed its downtrend by making 3,89,560 three consecutive bearish candle and closing below 11297 which was acting as a crucial support level the 17,18,000 index is showing a clear sign of downtrend with no 25,74,250 strong support level so we advice to make a short 16,94,000 position around 11270-250 for the targets of 11200-150 with stoploss above 11320. 15,05,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

42828

4130.75

34490

3165.76

INDEX OPTIONS

1617033

162967.98

1601002

STOCK FUTURES

206019

13963.09

STOCK OPTIONS

163739

11817.36

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

304701

26088.27

964.9908

161430.14

978793

85940.78

1537.8368

224280

15124.92

1223542

89686.08

-1161.8239

164307

11863.13

136958

9998.05

-45.7675 1295.2362

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11598.00

11370.00

11118.00

10890.00

10638.00

BANKNIFTY

27150.00

26373.00

25713.00

24936.00

24276.00

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30800 TGT 30900 31100 SL BELOW 30700 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30600 TGT 30500 30300 SL ABOVE 30700

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 37600 TGT 37800 38100 SL BELOW 37400 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 37300 TGT 37100 36800 SL ABOVE 37500

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold stayed broadly supported yesterday as a recent break above $1200 per ounce mark extended for the commodity amid continued weakness in US dollar. However, a record high for US equities capped the upside for the metal. The counter currently trades up 0.20% at $1214 per ounce – holding just below its three week high. MCX Gold eased slightly in last session, ending just above Rs 30600 per 10 grams. The World Gold Council (WGC) would soon submit a blueprint to the government on spot exchanges, its managing director for India operations said at an ASSOCHAM event held in New Delhi. Somasundaram PR, managing director-India, WGC noted at the ASSOCHAM International Gold Summit stated that a WGC led steering committee which has got all trade associations, key international banks and bullion banks, has been working on the spot exchange blueprint for last six-seven months. However, highlighting that demand for gold is likely to remain subdued in the current calendar year, Somasundarm said that while the demand for gold in the first half was seven per cent down compared to last year, the WGC expects it to pick up in the second half. However, it will still be another very subdued year for demand and he expects the demand to be 700-800 tonnes. There is no specific catalyst to drive the demand up, while international gold price has come down by 8-10%, Indian price has gone up by 13-14% and GST (Goods and Services Tax) is also causing a lot of transition, according to him. However, reforms like GST and demonetisation have actually led to gold buying becoming a lot more organised, more so as grey market is also becoming weak, thus it is a good time for gold to become mainstream because of demand remaining subdued. WTI Crude oil futures soared to a two-month high Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in its weekly update that the US crude inventories dropped to a three and half year low. The commodity has broken well above the key $70 per barrel level now and currently trades at $71.22 per barrel -up 0.64% on the day. MCX Crude jumped above Rs 5100 levels and ended up 2% at Rs 5160 per barrel. The EIA noted in its weekly petroleum status report that US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, maintaining a total US commercial crude inventory of 394.1 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory is down about 3% compared with the five-year average for this time of year.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9380 TGT 9430 9480 SL BELOW 9330 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9270 TARGET 9220-9170 SL 9320

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1768 4752 3938 5090 1688.5 4300

1.14 0.34 -1.03 -0.93 -0.82 -0.37

Jeera

19370

-1.17

4227 3363 6522

0.21 2 0.59

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 5130 TGT 5180 5230 SL BELOW 5080 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 5080 TARGET 5030-4980 SL 5130

The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. Bearish trend was seen in turmeric market this week as demand has receded at elevated levels. Though, some of the selected markets are still showing some buying. The spot prices in Nizamabad mandi ruled around Rs 6900 per quintal with thin trading activity owing to local holidays.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

71.8489 Yen

63.6700

Euro

84.6830 GBP

95.1500

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 72.50 TGT 73.00 73.50 SL BELOW 72.00 SELL USDINR BELOW 71.75 TGT 71.25 70.85 SL ABOVE 72.25

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 95.90 TGT 96.40 96.90 SL BELOW 95.40 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40

The rupee is expected to remain under pressure in nearterm as the downside risks to the currency are largely driven by the external factors and will take some time to subside, says a report. According to Dun & Bradsteet's latest economy forecast, elevated crude oil prices, strengthening of dollar, geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions will continue to impart depreciation pressures on the rupee. At this time of global uncertainty along with tightening dollar liquidity in the global market, measures to attract foreign investors to support the rupee might have limited impact, at least, in the short-term. The rupee has logged year-to-date losses of more than 13 per cent against the strengthening US dollar after trade concerns and firming up crude oil prices. It has dropped close to 6 per cent since August. The rupee Wednesday rebounded by 61 paise to close at 72.37 against the US currency. Adding to the bullish mode, the country's trade deficit for August softened to USD 17.4 billion against near five-year high of USD 18.02 billion. The rupee hit a day's high of 71.86, showing a sharp jump of 105 paise from the historic low, in the afternoon trade on positive sentiment. India's benchmark 10-year sovereign yield also eased to 8.13 per cent. The dollar rebounded from early lows and edged higher against most of its rivals on Friday but was still on track for its biggest weekly drop in seven months as stronger equity markets and rising bond yields fuelled a rush to buy riskier assets. With trade war concerns receding in the background and emerging market central banks led by Turkey taking measures to stabilise their currencies, investors pushed the euro to the $1.18 line for the first time in more than three months.The dollar index drifted 0.1 percent .DXY higher to 94.02 as investors consolidated positions before the weekend, but the greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop since February. A sell-off in the dollar that began in the late European session on Thursday gathered steam overnight as investors ramped up bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be near the end of its rate-rise cycle after an expected increase next next week.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Special Report 24-Sep-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

0.13

MONDAY, SEPT. 24 8:30 am

Chicago Fed national activity index

Aug.

TUESDAY, SEPT. 25 9 am

Case-Shiller home price index

July

--

6.2%

10 am

Consumer confidence index

Sept.

133.4

133.4

WEDNESDA Y, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY , SEPT. 26

2-2.25%

1.75-2%

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, SEPT. AY, SEPT. 26 26 10 am

2 pm

FOMC announcement/projections

2:30 pm

Jerome Powell press conference THURSDAY, SEPT. 27

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

9/22

--

201,000

8:30 am

GDP revision

Q2

4.2%

4.2%

8:30 am

Durable goods orders

Aug.

2.0%

-1.7%

8:30 am

Core capex orders

Aug.

--

1.6%

--

-0.7%

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

8:30 am 10 am

Pending home sales

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

Aug. FRIDAY, SEPT. 28 Disclaimer

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.