Special Report 25-Sep-2018
Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 and the Dow closed lower on Monday after a new round of US-China trade tariffs kicked in, dampening last week's hopes for talks between the two countries, and as investors awaited a widely expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Seven of the S&P's 11 major sectors lost ground after US tariffs on some USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods took effect, along with Beijing's retaliatory duties.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 181.45 points, or 0.68 percent, to 26,562.05, the S&P 500 lost 10.3 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,919.37, and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.29 points, or 0.08 percent, to 7,993.25. The industrial sector , which has borne the brunt of the protracted trade war, was one of the biggest drags on the S&P with a 1.3 percent drop.Interest rate sensitive sectors such as consumer staples , down 1.5 percent, and real estate , off 1.9 percent, were under pressure ahead of the two-day Fed meeting that begins on Tuesday and is widely expected to end with a rate hike. Asia stocks struggled on Tuesday as the latest round of USChina tariffs revived fears the trade dispute would knock global growth, while crude oil was elevated near four-year highs after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out immediate production increases.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.1 percent.Australian stocks lost 0.08 percent and Japan's Nikkei bucked the trend and edged up 0.2 percent.China and the United States imposed a new round of tariffs on each other’s goods on Monday, intensifying a trade dispute that is expected to hit global economic growth. Previous day Roundup The Nifty50 started off the week on negative note, extending losses for fifth consecutive session on Monday. The index after gap opening immediately slipped into red and closed below psychological 11,000 levels for first time since July 19, forming bearish candle on the daily charts which also resembles a ‘Bearish Beld Hold’ kind of pattern. A ‘Bearish Belt Hold’ pattern is formed when the opening price becomes the highest point of the trading day (intraday high) and the index declines throughout the trading day making up for the large body. The candle will either have a small or no upper shadow and a small lower shadow. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-44.25], Consumption[-145.80pts],Bank[ -671.70pts],Auto[ 387.10pts],FinService[-385.20pts],Fmcg[-614.35pts],Media [-63.10pts],Pharma[-253.45pts],IT[359.15pts],Metal[41.75pts],Realty[-13.75 pts], Pvt Bank[-379.75pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,743.50
0.32
S&P500
2,927.75
-0.20
NASDAQ
7,521.25
-0.32
FTSE100
7,490.23
1.64
23,869.93 27,603.08
0.82 -1.27
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Bharti Infratel
281.20
10.30
3.80
BPCL
376.50
11.45
3.14
HPCL
258.00
6.65
2.65
Hindalco
240.40
4.75
2.02
ONGC
180.40
3.40
1.92
CMP
Change
% Chg
226.50 2,379.40 738.05 665.80 1,180.20
-92.70 -120.15 -31.90 -26.50 -46.70
-29.04 -4.81 -4.14 -3.83 -3.8
Top Losers Company
Yes Bank Bajaj Finance Tech Mahindra UPL Kotak Mahindra
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW DELTAMAGNT
26.8 134.8
1.3 -6.7
4.85 -4.97
ELECTROSL
20.35
1
4.91
GANGOTRI
4.45
0.2
4.49
LIQUIDETF
999.99
0
0
N100
631.34
6.66
1.05
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
17.3 27.75 123.7 4.2 3.05
-0.75 -1.25 -6.4 0 -0.15
-4.34 -4.5 -5.17 0 -4.92
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
A2ZINFRA AARVEEDEN ABCAPITAL ABGSHIP ADHUNIK
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10967.40
-175.70
-1.58
SENSEX
36305.02
-536.58
-1.46
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. KPIT [FUTURE ] Respecting the support level of 269 the particular counter bounce backed and managed to close above it and closed with an indecision candle today it can get some positive moment if the market shows initial positivity here buy on dip would be a great opportunity so we advice to buy kpit future around 269-270 for the target of 274-278 with stoploss below 267.
2. UJJIVAN [FUTURE] This particular counter is showing a clear downtrend, 284 was the earlier support level below which it has made a clear cut breakout now as per the market weakness the supports and reistance are shifting downward so with the trend sell on weakness would be a good strategy to follow here sell ujjivan future around 274-273 for the target of 270-265 with stoploss above 278
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] CENTURYPLY [CASH] This particular counter is showing a clear downtrend, 192.90 was the earlier support level below which it has made a clear cut breakout, we can withness freefall as per the market weakness, sell on low would be a profitable take to consider so we suggest to sell centuryply around 191-190 for the targets of 187-184 with stoploss above 193.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 10 points or 0.1 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,002level on the Singaporean Exchange. Expecting oil prices to slide further, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) widened its current account deficit (CAD) estimate by 0.20 percent to 2.8 percent of GDP for fiscal year 2018-19. The widening current account gap is one of the major concerns which is putting pressure on the rupee, which has depreciated 13 percent against dollar this year. Brent breached the $80 per barrel mark on September 24 and analysts at the American brokerage said they expect it to go up further to $95 by June 2019, which will put pressure on the current account. "We raise CAD forecasts by 0.20 percent to 2.8 percent of GDP in FY19 and by 0.10 percent to 2.9 percent in FY20 with our oil strategists hiking Brent forecasts,"it said. Oil markets opened strongly on Tuesday, with Brent crude remaining near a four-year reached the previous session. Oil markets have been driven up by looming US sanctions against Iran and an unwillingness or inability by Middle East dominated producer cartel OPEC and Russia to raise output.Brent crude futures were at $81.39 per barrel at 0042 GMT, up by 19 cents, or 0.2 percent from their last close.
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
4,63,306
30,24,975
Vakrangee: Company entered into distribution agreement with Aditya Birla Housing Finance, which shall offer distribution of home loan and other related products through Nextgen Vakrangee Kendras.
5.75
3,62,727
24,75,675
11,100 36.85
3,44,236
20,65,875
Adlabs Entertainment: Company to develop and operate a new entertainment park in Amaravathi, Andhra Pradesh.
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
CE
11,200 13.25
NIFTY
CE
11,300
NIFTY
CE
RELIANCE
CE
1,240
14.5
12,079
RELIANCE
CE
1,260
7.4
9,708
17,10,000 NIFTY FUTURE 22,49,000
YESBANK
CE
240
9.2
9,200
23,36,250
YESBANK
CE
230
13
7,924
16,27,500
TCS
CE
2,200
34.5
7,673
3,23,000
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
NIFTY
PE
BANKNIFTY
2,83,500
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
11,000
83
4,57,128
PE
25,000
257
3,76,425
NIFTY
PE
10,900
48.7
3,17,846
RELIANCE
PE
1,200
5.1
10,681
TATASTEEL
PE
600
8.15
8,477
YESBANK
PE
220
11.4
7,539
RELIANCE
PE
1,220
9.1
6,351
RELIANCE
PE
1,180
2.8
5,204
Open Interest
The Nifty future confirmed its downtrend by making 41,22,450 consecutive bearish candles and closing below 11297 which was acting as a crucial support level the index is 5,07,520 showing a clear sign of downtrend with no strong 21,59,700 support level The index after gap opening immediately 20,42,000 slipped into red and closed below psychological 11,000 levels for first time since July 19, forming bearish candle 9,03,972 on the daily charts which also resembles a ‘Bearish Beld 27,54,500 Hold’ kind of pattern. so we advice to make a short 14,47,000 position around 11270-250 for the targets of 11200-150 with stoploss above 11320. 10,92,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
102370
9308.84
84877
7744.81
INDEX OPTIONS
1893736
175393.97
1940545
STOCK FUTURES
436697
28382.45
STOCK OPTIONS
262746
18780.03
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
325938
27670.50
1564.0267
180134.41
973403
83800.21
-4740.4455
426864
27766.91
1259465
90127.76
615.5413
267342
19065.10
147093
10205.44
-285.0691 -2845.9466
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11253.00
11110..00
11026.00
10883.00
10799.00
BANKNIFTY
25916.00
25443.00
25176.00
24703.00
24436.00
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30930 TGT 30970 31030 SL BELOW 30870 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30600 TGT 30500 30300 SL ABOVE 30700
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 38020 TGT 38070 39040 SL BELOW 37970 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 37400 TGT 37350 36300 SL ABOVE 37450
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold stayed broadly supported yesterday as a recent break above $1200 per ounce mark extended for the commodity amid continued weakness in US dollar. However, a record high for US equities capped the upside for the metal. The counter currently trades up 0.20% at $1214 per ounce – holding just below its three week high. MCX Gold eased slightly in last session, ending just above Rs 30600 per 10 grams. The World Gold Council (WGC) would soon submit a blueprint to the government on spot exchanges, its managing director for India operations said at an ASSOCHAM event held in New Delhi. Somasundaram PR, managing director-India, WGC noted at the ASSOCHAM International Gold Summit stated that a WGC led steering committee which has got all trade associations, key international banks and bullion banks, has been working on the spot exchange blueprint for last six-seven months. However, highlighting that demand for gold is likely to remain subdued in the current calendar year, Somasundarm said that while the demand for gold in the first half was seven per cent down compared to last year, the WGC expects it to pick up in the second half. However, it will still be another very subdued year for demand and he expects the demand to be 700-800 tonnes. There is no specific catalyst to drive the demand up, while international gold price has come down by 8-10%, Indian price has gone up by 13-14% and GST (Goods and Services Tax) is also causing a lot of transition, according to him. However, reforms like GST and demonetisation have actually led to gold buying becoming a lot more organised, more so as grey market is also becoming weak, thus it is a good time for gold to become mainstream because of demand remaining subdued. WTI Crude oil futures soared to a two-month high Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in its weekly update that the US crude inventories dropped to a three and half year low. The commodity has broken well above the key $70 per barrel level now and currently trades at $71.22 per barrel -up 0.64% on the day. MCX Crude jumped above Rs 5100 levels and ended up 2% at Rs 5160 per barrel. The EIA noted in its weekly petroleum status report that US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, maintaining a total US commercial crude inventory of 394.1 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory is down about 3% compared with the five-year average for this time of year.
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9380 TGT 9430 9480 SL BELOW 9330 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9070 TARGET 9020-8970 SL 9120
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1768 4752 3938 5090 1688.5 4300
-0.11 -0.65 -0.53 -1.81 -0.92 -1.16
Jeera
19370
-2.29
4227 3363 6522
-0.19 -1.61 -0.61
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 5130 TGT 5180 5230 SL BELOW 5080 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 5000 TARGET 4960-4920 SL 5040
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. Bearish trend was seen in turmeric market this week as demand has receded at elevated levels. Though, some of the selected markets are still showing some buying. The spot prices in Nizamabad mandi ruled around Rs 6900 per quintal with thin trading activity owing to local holidays.
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
72.6927 Yen
64.6100
Euro
85.2535 GBP
94.9953
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 72.50 TGT 73.00 73.50 SL BELOW 72.00 SELL USDINR BELOW 71.75 TGT 71.25 70.85 SL ABOVE 72.25
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 95.90 TGT 96.40 96.90 SL BELOW 95.40 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40
The rupee is expected to remain under pressure in nearterm as the downside risks to the currency are largely driven by the external factors and will take some time to subside, says a report. According to Dun & Bradsteet's latest economy forecast, elevated crude oil prices, strengthening of dollar, geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions will continue to impart depreciation pressures on the rupee. At this time of global uncertainty along with tightening dollar liquidity in the global market, measures to attract foreign investors to support the rupee might have limited impact, at least, in the short-term. The rupee has logged year-to-date losses of more than 13 per cent against the strengthening US dollar after trade concerns and firming up crude oil prices. It has dropped close to 6 per cent since August. The rupee Wednesday rebounded by 61 paise to close at 72.37 against the US currency. Adding to the bullish mode, the country's trade deficit for August softened to USD 17.4 billion against near five-year high of USD 18.02 billion. The rupee hit a day's high of 71.86, showing a sharp jump of 105 paise from the historic low, in the afternoon trade on positive sentiment. India's benchmark 10-year sovereign yield also eased to 8.13 per cent. The dollar rebounded from early lows and edged higher against most of its rivals on Friday but was still on track for its biggest weekly drop in seven months as stronger equity markets and rising bond yields fuelled a rush to buy riskier assets. With trade war concerns receding in the background and emerging market central banks led by Turkey taking measures to stabilise their currencies, investors pushed the euro to the $1.18 line for the first time in more than three months.The dollar index drifted 0.1 percent .DXY higher to 94.02 as investors consolidated positions before the weekend, but the greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop since February. A sell-off in the dollar that began in the late European session on Thursday gathered steam overnight as investors ramped up bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be near the end of its rate-rise cycle after an expected increase next next week.
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
24/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
BUY
24/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
24/09/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
24/09/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
5130
5180 5230
5080
NOT EXECUTED
SELL
5080
5030-4980
5130
NOT EXECUTED
OCT
BUY
9380
9430 9480
9330
NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9270
9220-9170
9320
NOT EXECUTED
24/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
30800
30900 31100
30700
NOT EXECUTED
24/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
30600
30500 30300
30700
OPEN
24/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
37600
37800 38100
37400
NOT EXECUTED
24/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
37300
37100 36800
37500
NOT EXECUTED
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
24/09/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
11270-250
11200-150
11320.
TARGET HIT
24/09/18
INDIGO
FUTURE
BUY
870-874
885-895
860
SL TRIGGERED
24/09/18
IRB
FUTURE
SELL
158-157.50
155-153
160
NOT EXECUTED
24/09/18
VIPIND
CASH
SELL
515-514
508-500
520
TARGET HIT
Entry Level
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Special Report 25-Sep-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
0.13
MONDAY, SEPT. 24 8:30 am
Chicago Fed national activity index
Aug.
TUESDAY, SEPT. 25 9 am
Case-Shiller home price index
July
--
6.2%
10 am
Consumer confidence index
Sept.
133.4
133.4
WEDNESDA Y, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY , SEPT. 26
2-2.25%
1.75-2%
WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, SEPT. AY, SEPT. 26 26 10 am
2 pm
FOMC announcement/projections
2:30 pm
Jerome Powell press conference THURSDAY, SEPT. 27
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/22
--
201,000
8:30 am
GDP revision
Q2
4.2%
4.2%
8:30 am
Durable goods orders
Aug.
2.0%
-1.7%
8:30 am
Core capex orders
Aug.
--
1.6%
--
-0.7%
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
8:30 am 10 am
Pending home sales
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
Aug. FRIDAY, SEPT. 28 Disclaimer
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
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