Special report-26-mar-2019-epic-research

Special Report

26-MAR-2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

An Apple-led tech rally pushed Wall Street higher on Thursday as jitters over the Federal Reserve's forecast of an economic slowdown were calmed by upbeat economic data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216.84 points, or 0.84 percent, to 25,962.51, the S&P 500 gained 30.65 points, or 1.09 percent, to 2,854.88 and the Nasdaq Composite added 109.99 points, or 1.42 percent, to 7,838.96.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25516

+0.057

S&P500

2854

+1.09

NASDAQ

7637

-0.07

FTSE100

7177

-0.42

21389 28555

+1.97 +0.11

Asian shares advanced on Friday after upbeat data and optimism in the tech sector lifted Wall Street stocks, helping calm some of the jitters sparked by the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on the world's biggest economy.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.25 percent while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader indices in India, a fall of 5 points or 0.04 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,587-level on the Singaporean Exchange. The European Union has offered

Top Gainers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets ended on a negative note as across the board selling pressure was seen in majority of the sectoral indices. Nifty Bank index underperformed the benchmark index by 0.2%, while Nifty Midcap 50 index outperformed the benchmark index by 0.6%. Jet Airways surged ~12% along with a sharp rise in open interest, consisting mainly of long positions. REC Ltd was among the top open interest gainers with its 158CE posting 1450% of intraday gains along with a rise of ~600% in open positions, indicating a continued upward bias for the March series.

ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, HDFC Ltd were the top index losers, shedding ~2% each. Market breadth ended in the favour of declines with the advance/decline ratio closing at 1:3.5x.

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-4.20pts], Consumption[-54.7pts],PSE[+71.4pts],CPSE [+70.9pts],Energy[-4.40pts],FMCG[-277.4pts],Auto[98.05pts],Pharma[-29.20pts],IT[-134.25pts],Metal[33.55pts],Realty[-5.15pts], Fin Serv sector[-125.50pts].

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

IOC

164.35

7.3

4.65

ONGC

158.65

6.3

4.14

237.2

5.25

2.26

274.25

5.9

2.2

202

3.5

1.76

CMP

Change

% Chg

416.45 168.25 306.6 278.8 912.7

-18.4 -5.65 -9.5 -6.95 -22.25

-4.23 -3.25 -3.01 -2.43 -2.38

Coal India HPCL Power Grid Corp

Top Losers Company

Zee Entertain Vedanta Bharti Infratel JSW Steel UPL

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

ABSLNN50ET

335.05

20.83

6.63

AGROPHOS

79.95

1.1

1.47

1,058.50

96.2

10

2.8

0.1

3.7

29.55

-1.4

-4.97

Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

ALKEM

1,690.00

36.3

2.11

ATNINTER

0.05

-0.05

-50

BALLARPUR CYBERMEDIA DCM

2.85 4.7 58

0.2 0.2 -1.25

6.9 4.12 -2.07

ARVINDFASN BILENERGY JAIBALAJI

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11354

-102.6

-0.90

SENSEX

37808

-355.7

-0.93

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. Kajaria [FUTURE ]

ICICI Bank [CASH] ICICI BANK looking ggod for short .In bankinkg space icici bank perfoming outstanding ,but inlast trading session profit booking in this stock .Our view is bearish for next trading session & suggest to sell stock in range 380 target 375/370 sl below 390 .Stock is treaded above all its important moving averages.

Kjaria – In last treading session saw sellling in this stock .On daily chart it may fall upto 540 .From this level expected fresh buying in stock which gives an opportunity for investment in stock .Our recommendation is to sell future from 555 Target 550/545 sl above 560. Stock closed with red candle.

MACRO NEWS 

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, retreating from a fourmonth high, as concerns that trade talks between the United States and China have stalled, stoking fears over the outlook for global economic growth.International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.49 a barrel at 0107 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent touched $68.20 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest since November 16.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.86 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement. WTI hit a high of $59.57 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest since November 12.



The Mindtree board will meet on March 26 to discuss a proposed buyback of equity shares, even as Larsen & Toubro (L&T) plans to make a detailed public statement on an open offer for Mindtree shares on the same day.Reports suggest independent directors of Mindtree will also constitute a committee to advise shareholders on whether to participate in the open offer.



Global brokerage house Macquarie said European investors are still appear to be cautious on India.

Elections & a rebound in economic growth will be key drivers for flows into India.

2. HUL [FUTURE] HINDUNILVR — In last two week we have seen that selling in FMCG ssector like HUL, Dabur ,Emamai, Godrej CP .Stock is contiously in downtrend from last six week . On technically our view is bearish ,recommendation is to sell for the targets of 1670/1660 maintain sl above 1700 .

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

Traded Volume (Contracts)

CE

29,500 105.15

5,22,652

NIFTY

CE

11,500

14.2

3,68,836

6,21,140 Escorts: The company appoints Shailendra Agrawal as executive director.

38,61,600

NIFTY

CE

11,400 42.55

3,44,728

24,53,475 NIFTY FUTURE

RELIANCE

CE

1,340

9.5

12,358

RELIANCE

CE

1,360

4.15

11,012

MARUTI

CE

6,700 28.85

9,686

MARUTI

CE

6,600

60

7,677

RELIANCE

CE

1,380

1.85

7,391

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

Open Interest

Jet Airways: Additional seven aircraft grounded due to non-payment of amounts outstanding to lessors.

LTP

11,12,500

NIFTY -On weekly chart nifty closed with red 13,42,500 candle,during this week nifty traded in a narrrow range 1,31,475 of 130 points . Sector which tested profit booking was Oil & Gas, Metal, Auto and FMCG. From last two trading 1,07,625 session fresh short position made by traders in index & 18,08,000 stock, interpretation of derivative data suggeest 1130011350 works as strong support & 11600 as resisitance.

2,83,500 Our view on nifty is bullish , strategy in buy on dips in the Open range between 11300 Target 11400-11600 Sl below Interest 11200.

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

PE

29,000 77.05

5,78,026

6,67,680

BANKNIFTY

PE

29,200 133.1

3,39,719

3,00,960

NIFTY

PE

11,300

30.6

3,11,063

27,64,725

RELIANCE

PE

1,320

9

11,228

7,12,000

RELIANCE

PE

1,300

4.2

10,096

12,10,500

MARUTI

PE

6,500

70

6,899

81,900

RELIANCE

PE

1,340

18.3

5,329

8,35,000

TATAMOTORS PE

170

2.6

4,668

33,88,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

72614

5423.11

62880

4872.99

328666

26521.89

550.1147

INDEX OPTIONS

2409301

161049.74

2398854

160249.90

1037233

81863.16

799.8394

STOCK FUTURES

250765

15411.63

283331

17297.01

1491171

94135.46

-1885.382

STOCK OPTIONS

139480

8893.77

140200

8955.95

154512

9893.42

-62.1787 -597.6066

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11437

11396

11353

11311

11269

BANKNIFTY

29428

29355

29255

29181

29082

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: Gold BUY ABOVE 31780 TARGET 31800/31850 SL 31740 Gold Sell BELOW 31680 TARGET 31650/31600 SL 31750

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver BUY ABOVE 38450 TARGET 38400/38300 SL 38520 Silver Sell BELOW 38500 TARGET 38450/38400 SL 38570

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Palladium scaled a record peak on Wednesday due to a prolonged supply deficit, while gold slipped as the dollar gained ground ahead of a policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Spot palladium XPD= was down 0.3 percent at $1,591.50 an ounce, as of 0908 GMT, after hitting an alltime high of $1,606.76 earlier in the session.Platinum XPT= was 1.3 percent firmer at $856.75 an ounce, after touching its highest since March 4 at $858.64 earlier in the session."Palladium market is definitely driven by constraints on the supply side and the possibility of a ban from Russia will keep palladium in particular, and platinum to an extent, extremely well bid," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst with OANDA.Russia, a major producer of palladium, is mulling a ban on the export of precious metals' scrap and tailings to promote domestic refining of the materials. and its sister metal platinum are used in emissions-cutting autocatalyst, but palladium is used more in gasoline engines.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, retreating from a four-month high, as concerns that trade talks between the United States and China have stalled, stoking fears over the outlook for global economic growth.International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $67.49 a barrel at 0107 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent touched $68.20 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest since Nov. 16.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $58.86 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement. WTI hit a high of $59.57 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest since Nov. 12."The dispute between the two largest economies has been the biggest factor impacting global growth," said Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA.Bloomberg reported U.S. officials were concerned Beijing was pushing back against Washington's demands during trade talks, lowering hopes for a resolution to the tariff war that has threatened global oil demand.Still, the drops in oil prices were checked by continued production cuts by major exporters, tightening supply.Crude stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 15, to 446.8 million, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 309,000 barrels, the data showed. API/SLater on Wednesday, market attention is set to shift away from global macroeconomic matter to official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on U.S. crude stockpiles. EIA/S

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 8870 TARGET 8885/8900/8930 SL 8810 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8820 TARGET 8805/8780/8760 SL 8880

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Cotton Seed Oilcake

1680 5272 4204 6589 2045

0.89 0.38 -0.1 0.09 2.18

Guar Seed 10 MT

4249

0.38

16140 3826 3631

-0.87 0.1 0.8

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY CORIANDER APR 6630 TARGET 6645/6660/6690 SL 6570 SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6600 TARGET 6585/6570/6540 SL 6660

The cumulative water storage in major reservoirs in the country dropped by 2% over the last week to 54 billion cubic metre (BCM), or 33% of total storage capacity, said a statement from the Central Water Commission (CWC).

The situation however is slightly better than in the corresponding period last year, said the CWC, which monitors 91 major reservoirs.The worst hit was the western region, which is already reeling under a drought. The total water storage in 27 reservoirs in western India region is 7.08 BMC, which is 23% of the live storage capacity. The water storage during the corresponding week last year was 34%.The condition is equally bad in the southern region, with storage plummeting to 25% of total live storage, or 13.15 BCM. The average storage in the same period last year was 27% of the total capacity of 51.59 BCM. The northern region, on other hand, is faring better compared to last year. As compared to 29% of the total live capacity in the corresponding week last year, water storage stood at 49% this week, the CWC statement said.

Average water storage in reservoirs in eastern and central regions this week was 47 (against 48) per cent and 38 (32) per cent, respectively.

US weather agencies have forecast a 60% chance of El Nino continuing through summer. The forecast, if it holds, could cast a shadow over India’s rainy season.

A weak El Nino was finally declared to have set in over the Pacific Ocean in February by several weather agencies.

Since then, these conditions have strengthened and most international weather agencies now predict that El Nino would persist for the next few months.

However, there is yet uncertainty over how the El Nino would last. Weather agencies warn that El Nino forecasts during March tend to have lower credibility because conditions could change in the spring season.

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rupee- $

69.96 Yen

62.6375

78.0650 GBP

90.9425

Euro USD/INR

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 70.10 TARGET 70.2/70.3 SL 69.8 SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 69.9 TARGET 69.8/69.7 SL 70.10

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 91 TARGET 91.10/91.20 SL 90.8 SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 90.9 TARGET 90.8/90.7 SL 91.2

Rate

The yen held near six-week highs against the dollar on Monday as fears of economic recession, fanned by inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve, sapped demand for higher-yield, growth reliant assets and drove investors toward "safe" destinations.Attention is focused heavily on the state of world growth after the U.S. Federal Reserve turned tail on raising interest rates, lacklustre Chinese data and a danger of a chaotic Brexit that would hit the British and European economies.With U.S. 10-year yields now almost two basis points below three month yields -- a classic recession signal -- equities have retreated while the yen and gold prices are up. The yen traded as high as 109.70 against the greenback but eased to trade around flat by 740 GMT JPY=D3 ."The Fed's pivot has lowered U.S. real rates across the curve. As a result, U.S. fixed income and equity markets may have become less attractive for Japanese investors," analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) told clients, adding they recommended staying short the dollar versus yen.

The euro, as well as government bond yields and stocks in the single currency bloc rose on Monday after a rise in German business sentiment took the edge off market fears about a dire economic outlook.The March Ifo business climate index rose to 99.6 from 98.7 in February and compared with expectations for a reading of 98.5. euro which had been flat against the dollar before the release, rose 0.2 percent to a session high of $1.13215 EUR=EBSEuropean shares turned higher after the Ifo report with the pan-regional STOXX 600 .STOXX benchmark last down 0.4 percent, having the index lost as much as 0.8 percent before.And in bond markets, Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield moved back into positive territory. It was last up 3 basis points on the day at 0 percent, having touched 0.004 percent.

The GBPUSD pair saw two-way price action last week and closed in favor of British Pound. The positive price action in favor of British Pound was influenced by EU’s decision to extend the Brexit deadline. However, the timeframe for the extension came with conditions attached to same. UK parliament has to vote in approval of PM May’s Brexit.

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

25/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6580

25/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

25/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

APR

25/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

25/03/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6595/6615/6640

6520

NOT EXECUTED

6500

6485/6465/6440

6560

NOT EXECUTED

BUY

8910

8925/8945/8970

8850

SL HIT

APR

SELL

8850

8835/8815/8790

8910

TARGET

MCX GOLD

APR

BUY

31780

31800/31850

31740

NOT EXECUTED

25/03/19

MCX GOLD

APR

SELL

31850

31800/31770

31920

TARGET

25/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

BUY

38300

38350/38400

38200

NOT EXECUTED

25/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAY

SELL

38120

38050/38000

38240

TARGET

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

25/03/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

11150-11160

11250-11300

11000

NOT EXECUTED

25/03/19

KAJARIA

FUTURE

SELL

580

568/560

592

TARGET

25/03/19

HUL

FUTURE

SELL

800

820/840

780

TARGET

25/03/19

ICICI

CASH

BUY

395

400-405

390

OPEN

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Special Report

26-MAR-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, MARCH 25 None scheduled TUESDAY, MARCH 26 8:30 am

Housing starts* (new date)

Feb.

1.200mln

1.230 mln

8:30 am

Building permits* (new date)

Feb.

--

1.345mln

9 am

Case-Shiller home price index

Jan.

--

10 am

Consumer confidence index

March

132.4

131.4

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27 8:30 am

Trade deficit* (new date)

Jan.

--$57.7bln -$59.8bln

8:30 am

Current account deficit* (new date)

Q4

--

-2.4%/GDP

THURSDAY, MARCH 28 8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

3/23

222,000

221,000

8:30 am

GDP revision

Q4

2.2%

2.6%

10 am

Pending home sales

Feb.

--

4.6%

9:45 FRIDAY, am Markit manufacturing index flash MARCH 29

Nov.

--

55.7

9:45 am

Nov.

Feb.

--

54.8

Markit services index flash

8:30 am

Personal income*

0.3%

-0.1%

8:30 am

Consumer spending*

Feb.

DELAYE D

8:30 am

Core inflation

Feb.

DELAYE D

8:30 am

Consumer spending* (new date)

Jan.

0.3%

-0.5%

8:30 am

Core inflation* (new date)

Jan.

0.2%

0.2%

9:45 am

Chicago PMI

March

--

64.7

10 am

New home sales* (new date)

Feb.

622,000

607,000

910 am

Consumer sentiment index

March

97.8

97.8

*DELAYED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Special Report

26-MAR-2019

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Sachi n Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-03-26 09:35+05:30

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