Special-Report-26-SEPTEMBER-2018-Epic-Research

Page 1

Special Report 26-Sep-2018

Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday as chipmakers were dented by ratings downgrades and utilities declined ahead of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike, offsetting a boost from the energy sector. S&P 500 financials , including interest-rate-sensitive bank stocks , dipped 0.38 percent ahead of the expected rise in interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday. Utilities, which tend to be favoured in low-rate environments because of their solid dividend payments, slid 1.22 percent

World Indices

Asian shares barely budged on Wednesday, lacking traction as US bond yields edged near a seven-year peak ahead of a widely expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve and as international oil prices rose to four-year highs. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares

Top Gainers

outside Japan was almost flat in early trade, in part as South Korea is closed for a holiday. It stayed below a threeweek high hit on Friday.In Japan, the Nikkei edged down 0.4 percent.Wall Street shares were mixed, as rises in energy shares on higher oil prices and gains in consumer discretionary shares following strong US consumer confidence were offset by falls in other sectors.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 48.5 points or 0.44 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,12-level on the Singaporean Exchange. US consumer confidence hit an 18-year high, adding to a string of recent US data that pointed to the strong US economic momentum, despite concerns about trade wars US President Donald Trump is waging. Previous day Roundup Positive global cues, short covering and a bit of value buying in beaten down stocks helped the market snap a five-day losing streak on Tuesday. The index made a bullish candle on the daily charts, resembling a Piercing Pattern. Piercing Pattern is generally called as a bullish reversal pattern. It occurs in a downtrend and is comprised of two candlesticks. The first candlestick is a long black candle, accompanied by high volume. The next candlestick makes a lower low, but then rallies to close above the midpoint of the first candlestick, but not above the opening of that candle. This pattern is one of the first signs that a potential bullish reversal is in play. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[16.10], Consumption[52.75pts],Bank[360.00pts],Auto [99.45pts],FinService[199.15pts],Fmcg[375.15pts],Media [ 0 .6 0 pt s ], P h a rm a [2 5 0 . 4 0 p t s] , I T[ 5 9 .6 0 p t s] ,M et a l [0.10pts],Realty[-4.05 pts], Pvt Bank[192.40pts].

Index

Value

% Change

26,492.20

-0.26

S&P500

2,927.75

0.22

NASDAQ

7,624.00

0.38

FTSE100

7,507.56

0.65

23,971.72 27,944.63

0.13 1.59

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

HDFC

1,773.35

54.65

3.18

Kotak Mahindra

1,183.35

34.65

3.02

Axis Bank

614.35

17.00

2.85

Sun Pharma

641.10

17.10

2.74

7,999.45

206.40

2.65

CMP

Change

% Chg

40.50 269.35 219.70 369.90 192.60

-1.65 -8.50 -6.70 -11.00 -5.00

-3.91 -3.06 -2.96 -2.89 -2.53

Maruti Suzuki

Top Losers Company

Vodafone Idea Bharti Infratel Yes Bank GAIL Power Grid Corp

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW ATLASCYCLE

28.1 121.9

1.4 -4.9

4.98 -4.02

AXISNIFTY

1121.8

-1.41

-0.13

BIOCON

665.45

40.95

6.15

DIAPOWER

2.05

-0.1

-4.88

ELECTROSL

21.35

1.05

4.92

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

31.15 234.8 16.6 91.5 117.25

-0.6 -11.7 -0.5 -3.2 2.45

-1.93 -4.98 -3.01 -3.5 2.09

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

21STCENMGM 8KMILES A2ZINFRA ABAN ABCAPITAL

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11067.50

100.10

0.91

SENSEX

36652.06

347.04

0.96

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. NTPC [FUTURE ] 200 day SMA around 166 the particular counter has bounce backed and managed to close above it and made a bullish candle after a indecision candle today it can get some positive moment if the market shows initial positivity here buy on dip would be a great opportunity so we advice to buy ntpc future around 171.60-172.60 for the target of 175-178 with stoploss below 169.

2. GRANULES [FUTURE]

This particular counter is showing a bounce back from its support level of 99 during intraday movement since market has also shown positivity during last hours of trading so with the trend buy on dip would be a good strategy to follow, here buy granules future around 99-100 for the target of 104 -108 with stoploss below 97.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] CENTURYPLY [CASH] This particular counter is showing a clear downtrend, 192.90 was the earlier support level below which it has made a clear cut breakout, we can withness freefall as per the market weakness, sell on low would be a profitable take to consider so we suggest to sell centuryply around 185-184 for the targets of 180-175 with stoploss above 189.

MACRO NEWS  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 48.5 points or 0.44 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,12-level on the Singaporean Exchange.  Developing Asia could grow more slowly than previously thought next year as the US-China trade war inflicts collateral damage on the region’s exportreliant economies, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday. Tightening global liquidity could also weigh on business activity by pushing up borrowing costs, while capital outflows are also a risk.  Banks expect to recover about Rs 1.80 lakh crore from overall non-performing assets (NPAs) through insolvency and other resolution mechanisms, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on September 25. Reviewing the performance of state-owned lenders with their bank chiefs, Jaitley said apart from NPA recoveries, lenders also expect to monetise close to Rs 18,000 crore in this financial year via non-core divestments.  The Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as strong employment and inflation in the US as well as strengthening economy have increased hopes for further policy tightening. As two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting began on Tuesday, there are expectations that the central bank will increase the rates to 2-2.25 percent range from 1.75-2 percent, Economic Times reported.

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

IL&FS Transportation - Brickworks revised rating on NCD worth Rs 3,550 cr to BWR C(SO) from BWR BB(SO)

RITES: Company has a joint venture company i.e. BNV Gujarat Rail Private Limited. Company has remitted second tranche of investment for an amount of Rs 24,70,000 to subscribe joint venture company's right issue.

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

CE

11,100

63.4

5,75,086

22,14,000

BANKNIFTY

CE

25,500 148.8

5,16,577

6,41,760

NIFTY

CE

11,200

21.5

5,07,392

28,14,600

RELIANCE

CE

1,240

9.5

13,979

RELIANCE

CE

1,260

4

13,119

19,14,000 NIFTY FUTURE 23,80,000

YESBANK

CE

240

7.3

10,463

23,25,750

MARUTI

CE

8,000 97.35

10,239

63,750

TATASTEEL

CE

9,559

14,89,644

600

9.9

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

NIFTY

PE

NIFTY

2,83,500

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

10,900

17

4,91,105

21,88,725

PE

11,000

32

4,76,793

BANKNIFTY

PE

24,500

27

3,63,736

NIFTY

PE

10,800

8.4

3,51,286

RELIANCE

PE

1,200

4

11,894

RELIANCE

PE

1,220

8.3

11,107

YESBANK

PE

200

5.95

8,429

TATASTEEL

PE

580

2.25

8,331

39,83,550 Positive global cues, short covering and a bit of value 4,29,800 buying in beaten down stocks helped the market snap a five-day losing streak on Tuesday. The index made a 28,78,575 bullish candle on the daily charts, resembling a Piercing 15,12,000 Pattern. Today it may show some initial correction upto 11,39,000 the support level of 11060 and it may start its uotrend so we advice to make a long position around 11060-80 14,31,500 for the targets of 11150-200 with stoploss below 10080. 5,74,001

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

104013

8951.76

97112

8429.27

INDEX OPTIONS

1429356

128720.61

1423112

STOCK FUTURES

511043

34108.10

STOCK OPTIONS

124194

8457.56

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

321289

26751.83

522.4877

128508.22

1053007

89521.90

212.3854

527728

35418.06

1280716

90193.38

-1309.9685

123832

8459.14

142945

9715.68

-1.5775 -576.6729

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11207.00

11137.00

11009.00

10939.00

10811.00

BANKNIFTY

25866.00

25598.00

25138.00

24870.00

24410.00

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30930 TGT 30970 31030 SL BELOW 30870 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30600 TGT 30500 30300 SL ABOVE 30700

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 38020 TGT 38070 39040 SL BELOW 37970 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 37400 TGT 37350 36300 SL ABOVE 37450

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold stayed broadly supported yesterday as a recent break above $1200 per ounce mark extended for the commodity amid continued weakness in US dollar. However, a record high for US equities capped the upside for the metal. The counter currently trades up 0.20% at $1214 per ounce – holding just below its three week high. MCX Gold eased slightly in last session, ending just above Rs 30600 per 10 grams. The World Gold Council (WGC) would soon submit a blueprint to the government on spot exchanges, its managing director for India operations said at an ASSOCHAM event held in New Delhi. Somasundaram PR, managing director-India, WGC noted at the ASSOCHAM International Gold Summit stated that a WGC led steering committee which has got all trade associations, key international banks and bullion banks, has been working on the spot exchange blueprint for last six-seven months. However, highlighting that demand for gold is likely to remain subdued in the current calendar year, Somasundarm said that while the demand for gold in the first half was seven per cent down compared to last year, the WGC expects it to pick up in the second half. However, it will still be another very subdued year for demand and he expects the demand to be 700-800 tonnes. There is no specific catalyst to drive the demand up, while international gold price has come down by 8-10%, Indian price has gone up by 13-14% and GST (Goods and Services Tax) is also causing a lot of transition, according to him. However, reforms like GST and demonetisation have actually led to gold buying becoming a lot more organised, more so as grey market is also becoming weak, thus it is a good time for gold to become mainstream because of demand remaining subdued. Oil prices were trading within reach of four year highs on Tuesday amid fears over a looming supply crunch after global producers decided against any increase in production despite calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for action to cool prices. Global benchmark Brent crude futures were up 0.72% at $81.08 a barrel by 08:44 AM ET (12:44 GMT). Prices hit a high of $81.48 on Monday, the most since November 2014. Crude Oil WTI Futures for November were up 0.46% at $72.42, near Monday’s high of $72.74, the strongest level since the week ended July 8. Oil has rallied amid worries over Trump’s plans to reduce Iranian crude shipments to zero through sanctions slated for Nov. 4.

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9250 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9070 TARGET 9020-8970 SL 9120

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1760 4685 3946 4913 1673 4253

-0.45 -0.93 0.54 -1.86 -0.42 0.08

18990

0.13

4202 3284 6582

-0.28 -0.58 1.39

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 5000 TGT 5050 5100 SL BELOW 4950 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4860 TARGET 4800-4750 SL 4900

The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. Bearish trend was seen in turmeric market this week as demand has receded at elevated levels. Though, some of the selected markets are still showing some buying. The spot prices in Nizamabad mandi ruled around Rs 6900 per quintal with thin trading activity owing to local holidays.

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

72.6927 Yen

64.6100

Euro

85.2535 GBP

94.9953

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.00 TGT 73.50 74.00 SL BELOW 72.60 SELL USDINR BELOW 71.75 TGT 71.25 70.85 SL ABOVE 72.25

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.20 TGT 96.70 97.20 SL BELOW 95.80 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40

The rupee is expected to remain under pressure in nearterm as the downside risks to the currency are largely driven by the external factors and will take some time to subside, says a report. According to Dun & Bradsteet's latest economy forecast, elevated crude oil prices, strengthening of dollar, geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions will continue to impart depreciation pressures on the rupee. At this time of global uncertainty along with tightening dollar liquidity in the global market, measures to attract foreign investors to support the rupee might have limited impact, at least, in the short-term. The rupee has logged year-to-date losses of more than 13 per cent against the strengthening US dollar after trade concerns and firming up crude oil prices. It has dropped close to 6 per cent since August. The rupee Wednesday rebounded by 61 paise to close at 72.37 against the US currency. Adding to the bullish mode, the country's trade deficit for August softened to USD 17.4 billion against near five-year high of USD 18.02 billion. The rupee hit a day's high of 71.86, showing a sharp jump of 105 paise from the historic low, in the afternoon trade on positive sentiment. India's benchmark 10-year sovereign yield also eased to 8.13 per cent. The dollar rebounded from early lows and edged higher against most of its rivals on Friday but was still on track for its biggest weekly drop in seven months as stronger equity markets and rising bond yields fuelled a rush to buy riskier assets. With trade war concerns receding in the background and emerging market central banks led by Turkey taking measures to stabilise their currencies, investors pushed the euro to the $1.18 line for the first time in more than three months.The dollar index drifted 0.1 percent .DXY higher to 94.02 as investors consolidated positions before the weekend, but the greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop since February. A sell-off in the dollar that began in the late European session on Thursday gathered steam overnight as investors ramped up bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be near the end of its rate-rise cycle after an expected increase next next week.

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

25/09/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

SEP

BUY

25/09/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

SEP

25/09/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

25/09/18

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

5130

5180 5230

5080

NOT EXECUTED

SELL

5000

4960-4920

5040

NOT EXECUTED

OCT

BUY

9380

9430 9480

9330

NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX GUARGUM5

OCT

SELL

9270

9220-9170

9320

NOT EXECUTED

25/09/18

MCX GOLD

OCT

BUY

30930

30970 31030

30870

NOT EXECUTED

25/09/18

MCX GOLD

OCT

SELL

30600

30500 30300

30700

NOT EXECUTED

25/09/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

BUY

38020

38070 39040

37970

TARGET HIT

25/09/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

SELL

37400

37350 36300

37450

NOT EXECUTED

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

25/09/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

11270-250

11200-150

11320.

SL TRIGGERED

25/09/18

UJJIVAN

FUTURE

SELL

274-273

270-265

278

TARGET HIT

25/09/18

KPIT

FUTURE

BUY

269-270

274-278

267

NOT EXECUTED

25/09/18

CENTURYPLY

CASH

SELL

191-190

187-184

193

TARGET HIT

Entry Level

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Special Report 26-Sep-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

0.13

MONDAY, SEPT. 24 8:30 am

Chicago Fed national activity index

Aug.

TUESDAY, SEPT. 25 9 am

Case-Shiller home price index

July

--

6.2%

10 am

Consumer confidence index

Sept.

133.4

133.4

WEDNESDA Y, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26

WEDNESDAY , SEPT. 26

2-2.25%

1.75-2%

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, SEPT. AY, SEPT. 26 26 10 am

2 pm

FOMC announcement/projections

2:30 pm

Jerome Powell press conference THURSDAY, SEPT. 27

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

9/22

--

201,000

8:30 am

GDP revision

Q2

4.2%

4.2%

8:30 am

Durable goods orders

Aug.

2.0%

-1.7%

8:30 am

Core capex orders

Aug.

--

1.6%

--

-0.7%

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

8:30 am 10 am

Pending home sales

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

Aug. FRIDAY, SEPT. 28 Disclaimer

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28

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