Special Report 27-Sep-2018
Global markets at a glance Global equities ran out of steam and US bond yields fell after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected, sticking to its script of gradual policy tightening with forecasts of five more rate hikes by 2020. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.05 percent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.45 percent. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4 percent and the S&P 500 lost 0.33 percent. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.21 percent. Asian shares barely budged on Wednesday, lacking traction as US bond yields edged near a seven-year peak ahead of a widely expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve and as international oil prices rose to four-year highs. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat in early trade, in part as South Korea is closed for a holiday. It stayed below a three-week high hit on Friday. In Japan, the Nikkei edged down 0.4 percent.US consumer confidence hit an 18-year high, adding to a string of recent US data that pointed to the strong US economic momentum, despite concerns about trade wars US President Donald Trump is waging.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.13 percent while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.18 percent.The utility sector, sometimes seen as an alternative to bonds because of the relative steadiness of their business, was the worst performer as investors braced for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday. Previous day Roundup The Nifty 50 closed a rangebound session mildly lower on September 26 as traders turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight and expiry of September futures & options contracts on Thursday. The index failed to extend previous day's gains. After a gap-up opening, the Nifty slipped into the red and remained rangebound with a negative bias for rest of the session. The index closed marginally in the red, forming bearish candle on the daily charts. The sectoral trend was mixed with Nifty FMCG (down 1.5 percent), IT (1.9 percent) and PSU Bank (1.9 percent) indices falling the most and the Nifty Midcap index outperforming benchmark indices, rising third of a percent. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[36.90], Consumption[-25.40pts],Bank[45.95pts],Auto[ 98.25pts],FinService[19.30pts],Fmcg[-441.70pts],Media[5.05pts],Pharma[44.15pts],IT[ -302.45pts],Metal[ 5.05pts],Realty[5.60 pts], Pvt Bank[55.00pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,385.28
-0.40
S&P500
2,913.50
+0.14
NASDAQ
7,601.00
+0.14
FTSE100
7,511.49
0.05
23,946.13 27,723.65
-0.37 -0.34
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
UPL
697.55
36.60
5.54
Vedanta
241.55
11.15
4.84
Vodafone Idea
41.45
0.95
2.35
Titan Company
814.70
17.85
2.24
Hindalco
247.95
4.90
2.02
CMP
Change
% Chg
233.35 261.50 319.25 293.15 263.85
-7.45 -7.85 -9.05 -8.00 -7.05
-3.09 -2.91 -2.76 -2.66 -2.6
Top Losers Company
Tata Motors Bharti Infratel Wipro ITC SBI
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW BIOCON
29.5 701.55
1.45 2.65
4.92 0.38
DIVISLAB
1388.4
-8.4
-0.61
ELECTROSL
22.4
1.1
4.91
GANGOTRI
4.85
0.2
4.12
ICICILIQ
1000
0
0
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
30.55 223.1 2.8 202.35 78
-0.6 -11.15 0 -3.2 -3.95
-1.96 -5 0 -1.58 -5.06
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES ADHUNIK AEGISCHEM AGCNET
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
11053.80
-13.70
-0.12
SENSEX
36542.27
-109.79
-0.30
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. NTPC [FUTURE ] As per the intraday movement the particular counter is clearrly respecting its 200 days SMA and moving around it and its struggling to break the moving average line it would be beneficial to buy around the levels of 168-170 for the targets of 172-176 with stoploss below 165
2. HINDALCO [FUTURE]
With a closing above its 200 day SMA the particular counter proves its strength of uptrend around the resistance level of 250 with the little market strength it can break this level so we advice to buy around 251-252 for the targets of 255-259 with stoploss below 249
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] HDFCLIFE [CASH] This particular counter is showing a bounce back from its support level of 363 also made three inside up candlestick pattern which is showing that the downtrend would come to an end and uptrend may start so you can go for the buy on strength strategy around the levels of 402-404 for the targets of 410-420 with stoploss below 398
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 24.5 points or 0.22 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,076level on the Singaporean Exchange. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the US economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. In a statement that marked the end of the era of “accommodative” monetary policy, Fed policymakers lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent.The U.S. central bank still foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. Oil prices rose by 1 percent on Thursday as investors focused on the prospect of tighter markets due to US sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, which are set to be implemented in November. Front-month Brent crude futures were at $82.17 per barrel at 0133 GMT, up by 83 cents, or 1 percent from their last close, just off Tuesday’s four-year highs. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $72.41 a barrel, up 84 cents, or 1.2 percent from their last settlement.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
NIFTY
IL&FS Transportation - Brickworks revised rating on NCD worth Rs 3,550 cr to BWR C(SO) from BWR BB(SO)
RITES: Company has a joint venture company i.e. BNV Gujarat Rail Private Limited. Company has remitted second tranche of investment for an amount of Rs 24,70,000 to subscribe joint venture company's right issue.
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
CE
11,100 26.75
3,57,250
26,89,875
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,500
44.8
3,33,720
8,97,200
NIFTY
CE
11,200
8.2
3,07,601
32,12,025
NIFTY
CE
11,000 64.85
3,00,068
RELIANCE
CE
1,240
14.5
12,079
23,19,225 NIFTY FUTURE 17,10,000
RELIANCE
CE
1,260
7.4
9,708
22,49,000
YESBANK
CE
240
9.2
9,200
23,36,250
YESBANK
CE
230
13
7,924
16,27,500
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST
2,83,500
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
PE
11,000
29.2
5,80,574
45,76,500
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,000
35.8
4,96,640
7,72,160
NIFTY
PE
10,900
9.7
3,39,478
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,200
75
3,19,790
RELIANCE
PE
1,220
9.1
3,626
RELIANCE
PE
1,200
5.2
2,998
DHFL
PE
300
18
2,528
TATASTEEL
PE
580
5.05
2,524
26,48,625 With negative intraday movement the index indicated 3,84,360 that still the negative trend has not been come to an end, a little support can be found at the level of 11015 15,57,000 which can prove not much strength here sell on rise 20,24,000 would be good strategy to follow so we advice to sell 9,48,000 nifty future around the levels of 11080-70 for the targets of 11000-10050 with stoploss above 11130. 8,22,275
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
131662
11327.76
137097
12121.06
INDEX OPTIONS
2232119
202509.41
2221895
STOCK FUTURES
576296
38091.87
STOCK OPTIONS
128743
8655.38
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
325316
27308.35
-793.2955
201903.82
1091241
93890.17
605.5911
560286
37443.14
1303420
92409.83
648.7243
127479
8570.66
140551
9573.05
84.7157 545.7356
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11215.00
11134.00
11063.00
10982.00
10911.00
BANKNIFTY
25694.00
25535.00
25366.00
25207.00
25038.00
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30630 TGT 30680 30730 SL BELOW 30590 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30560 TGT 30510 30450 SL ABOVE 30600
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 38050 TGT 38100 39150 SL BELOW 38000 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 37800 TGT 37750 36700 SL ABOVE 37850
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9250 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9070 TARGET 9020-8970 SL 9120
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1765 4680 3982 4936 1675 4298.5
0.26 -0.02 0.5 0.92 0.12 0.4
Jeera
19090
0.45
4212 3308 6620
0.05 0.43 -0.48
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 5000 TGT 5050 5100 SL BELOW 4950 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4860 TARGET 4800-4750 SL 4900
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
72.7182 Yen
64.4200
Euro
85.5365 GBP
95.7699
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.80 TGT 74.30 74.80 SL BELOW 73.30 SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.20 71.70 SL ABOVE 73.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.20 TGT 96.70 97.20 SL BELOW 95.80 SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
26/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
BUY
26/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
26/09/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
26/09/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
5130
5180 5230
5080
NOT EXECUTED
SELL
4860
4800-4750
4900
NOT EXECUTED
OCT
BUY
9250
9300 9350
9200
TARGET HIT
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9070
9020-8970
9120
NOT EXECUTED
26/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
30930
30970 31030
30870
NOT EXECUTED
26/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
30600
30500 30300
30700
OPEN
26/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
38020
38070 39040
37970
TARGET HIT
26/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
37400
37350 36300
37450
NOT EXECUTED
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
26/09/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
11060-80
11150-200
10080
OPEN
26/09/18
GRANULES
FUTURE
SELL
99-100
104-108
97
NOT EXECUTED
26/09/18
NTPC
FUTURE
BUY
175-178
169
NOT EXECUTED
26/09/18
CENTURYPLY
CASH
SELL
180-175
189
NOT EXECUTED
Entry Level
171.60-172.60
185-184
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co
Special Report 27-Sep-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
0.13
MONDAY, SEPT. 24 8:30 am
Chicago Fed national activity index
Aug.
TUESDAY, SEPT. 25 9 am
Case-Shiller home price index
July
--
6.2%
10 am
Consumer confidence index
Sept.
133.4
133.4
WEDNESDA Y, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY , SEPT. 26
2-2.25%
1.75-2%
WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, SEPT. AY, SEPT. 26 26 10 am
2 pm
FOMC announcement/projections
2:30 pm
Jerome Powell press conference THURSDAY, SEPT. 27
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/22
--
201,000
8:30 am
GDP revision
Q2
4.2%
4.2%
8:30 am
Durable goods orders
Aug.
2.0%
-1.7%
8:30 am
Core capex orders
Aug.
--
1.6%
--
-0.7%
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
8:30 am 10 am
Pending home sales
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
Aug. FRIDAY, SEPT. 28 Disclaimer
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd www.epicresearch.co