Special Report 28-Sep-2018
Global markets at a glance A rally in US equities fizzled out late on Wednesday, while the US dollar rose, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, as expected, and flagged the end of its "accommodative" monetary policy. With steady economic growth and a strong job market, the Fed indicated that it still foresees another rate rise in December, three more next year, and one in 2020. Though the US dollar was higher, it had briefly stumbled after the Fed decision. Shares in Asia inched higher on Friday, following gains on Wall Street overnight after news of robust U.S. economic growth, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve saying the United States does not face a large chance of near-term recession.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.02 percent in early trade in Asia. Australian shares were 0.5 percent higher, while Seoul's Kospi was down 0.5 percent after hitting three-month highs on Thursday.Japan's Nikkei stock index gained 1.1 percent, putting it within sight of a 2018 high of 24,129.34 points on Jan. 23.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.21 percent to 26,439.93 on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 0.28 percent to 2,914 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.65 percent to 8,041.97. Previous day Roundup The Nifty50 repeated its previous day's trading pattern on Thursday, the expiry day of September futures & options contracts. The index opened sharply higher but after positive trade in the initial period, it extended losses as the day progressed and closed below psychological 11,000 levels. The index formed a bearish candle again on the daily charts.The Nifty Bank, Auto, Financial Service, Pharma and Realty indices were down 1-3 percent while the Nifty Midcap index underperformed frontliners, falling 2.3 percent.The Nifty50 opened higher at 11,079.80 and closed sharply lower at 10,977.55. The index managed to rise up to 11,089.45, the intraday high, in first half of an hour of trade but suddenly wiped out those gains and remained weak for rest of the session to hit day's low of 10,953.35. It closed 76.30 points lower at 10,977.50.According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,924.03, followed by 10,870.57. If the index starts moving upwards, key resistance levels to watch out are 11,060.23 and 11,142.97. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-24.60], Co nsum ptio n[ -34 .40 pts],Bank[ -334 .1 5 pts],Auto [ 186.80pts],FinService[-178.65pts],Fmcg[-22.40pts],Media[24.25pts],Pharma[-196.65pts],IT[85.55pts],Metal[ 24.25pts],Realty[-6.55 pts], Pvt Bank[-268.90pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
26,385.28
-0.40
S&P500
2,913.50
+0.14
NASDAQ
7,601.00
+0.14
FTSE100
7,511.49
0.05
23,946.13 27,723.65
-0.37 -0.34
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
267.85
6.35
2.43
2,188.85
46.70
2.18
276.25
3.70
1.36
4,120.40
52.85
1.30
724.80
6.95
0.97
CMP
Change
% Chg
203.25 38.50 2,204.20 5,979.80 7,553.05
-20.50 -2.95 -111.35 -232.75 -289.50
-9.16 -7.12 -4.81 -3.75 -3.69
Bharti Infratel TCS Coal India UltraTechCement Infosys
Top Losers Company
Yes Bank Vodafone Idea Bajaj Finance Bajaj Finserv Maruti Suzuki
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH AIONJSW CANTABIL
30.95 158.45
1.5 3.15
4.85 1.99
DEEPAKNTR
293.8
5.2
1.77
GANGOTRI
5.05
0.25
4.95
LIQUIDETF
1000
0.01
0
N100
636.8
3.2
0.5
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
30.55 223.1 2.8 202.35 78
-0.6 -11.15 0 -3.2 -3.95
-1.96 -5 0 -1.58 -5.06
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
21STCENMGM 8KMILES ADHUNIK AEGISCHEM AGCNET
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10977.50
-76.30
-0.69
SENSEX
36324.17
-218.10
-0.60
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. RELINFRA [FUTURE ] As per the intraday movement the particular counter has clearly broken its early support level of 313.35 and closed below it. Now as per the movement of the market which clearly indicates that the downtrend would contunue further so we advice to sell relinfra around 300-298 for the targets of 295-290 with stoploss above 304.
2. TATAMOTORS [FUTURE]
The particular counter has finally broken its crucial support level of 230 and closed below it now as per the market weakness 215 is the next level for it so we advice you to sell around 223-222 for the targets of 217-212 with the stoploss of 226.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] MANAPPURAM [CASH] The stock closed with a bearish engulf candle after making two bull candles, with this candle it can confirmed its futher downtrend with this further 2-3% downfall is possible so we advice to sell manappuram future around 75-74 for the targets of 70-65 with the stoploss above 78.
MACRO NEWS Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 40 points or 0.36 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,082level on the Singaporean Exchange. The US economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next two years and the Federal Reserve plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday. “There’s no reason to think that the probability of a recession in the next year or two is at all elevated,” Powell said. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) lowered the growth projections for trade to 3.9 percent from the 4.4 percent estimated earlier for 2018, a development which may not augur well for India. The WTO said that escalating trade tensions and tighter credit market conditions in important markets will slow trade growth for the rest of this year and in 2019 The rupee on September 27 ended almost flat at 72.59 to the US dollar after initial strong gains were erased by fag-end dollar demand from importers despite government measures to stem currency volatility. Steady capital outflows against the backdrop of tumbling local equities, ongoing global trade war concerns and surging oil prices kept forex sentiment under stress.
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
CE
NIFTY
Kesoram Industries received Karnataka government approval for acquisition of some 675 acres of land for Industrial purpose (Mining Activities)
RITES: Company has a joint venture company i.e. BNV Gujarat Rail Private Limited. Company has remitted second tranche of investment for an amount of Rs 24,70,000 to subscribe joint venture company's right issue.
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
25,600
0.1
6,71,855
7,55,720
CE
11,100
0.05
6,60,893
39,47,250
NIFTY
CE
11,000
0.05
6,48,916
31,12,575
BANKNIFTY
CE
25,100
0.05
5,72,117
RELIANCE
CE
1,260
0.05
22,048
7,34,520 NIFTY FUTURE 23,25,000
YESBANK
CE
220
0.05
20,713
33,68,750
YESBANK
CE
210
0.05
15,506
23,80,000
YESBANK
CE
230
0.05
12,688
40,88,000
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST
2,83,500
Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,100
52.3
7,76,071
1,37,920
NIFTY
PE
11,000
16.9
7,29,598
26,29,275
NIFTY
PE
10,900
0.05
5,47,409
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,200
145
5,21,434
YESBANK
PE
200
0.05
21,630
RELIANCE
PE
1,240
0.05
18,357
YESBANK
PE
210
6.55
14,922
MARUTI
PE
7,600
50
7,687
28,83,300 With negative intraday movement the index indicated 2,51,600 that still the negative trend has not been come to an end, a little support can be found at the level of 11015 39,49,750 which can prove not much strength here sell on rise 10,65,000 would be good strategy to follow so we advice to sell 4,25,250 nifty future around the levels of 11080-70 for the targets of 11000-10050 with stoploss above 11130. 22,200
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
103284
8821.97
99483
8542.53
INDEX OPTIONS
1931281
178423.60
1914223
STOCK FUTURES
559747
37353.14
STOCK OPTIONS
91819
6383.72
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
329927
27608.70
279.44
177244.63
1133547
97623.12
1178.972
546844
36646.59
1309343
92932.39
706.5522
92920
6466.97
140000
9556.10
-83.2497 2081.7145
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11142.00
11059.00
11006.00
10923.00
10870.00
BANKNIFTY
25612.00
25327.00
25167.00
24882.00
24722.00
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 30400 TGT 30450 30500 SL BELOW 30350 SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 30300 TGT 30250 30200 SL ABOVE 30350
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT 37700 TGT 37750 37800 SL BELOW 37650 SELL SILVER SEP FUT 37470 TGT 37420 37370 SL ABOVE 37520
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94 mark - its lowest level in around three months though some recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day. Continued strength in US economic data can also support the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering USChina trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70 per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust 33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9250 TGT 9300 9350 SL BELOW 9200 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9070 TARGET 9020-8970 SL 9120
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1763 4658 4006 4905 1659 4260
0.03 -0.38 0.7 -0.71 -0.87 -0.55
18880
-0.87
4167 3248 6554
-1 -1.81 -1.15
Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand from millers in local mandies. The market sources added that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season. The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000 per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 5000 TGT 5050 5100 SL BELOW 4950 SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4860 TARGET 4800-4750 SL 4900
The latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018, but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other South East Asian countries have improved. The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future direction of India's exports will depend on price competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from poultry feed manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million, $505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
72.6505 Yen
64.4700
Euro
85.0418 GBP
95.4347
USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.05 TGT 73.50 74.00 SL BELOW 72.50 SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.00 71.50 SL ABOVE 73.00
GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.00 TGT 96.50 97.00 SL BELOW 95.50 SELL GBPINR BELOW 95.50 TGT 95.00 94.50 SL ABOVE 96.00
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at 72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the American currency amid soaring crude prices. It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and precluded the emergence of a clear trend. A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept trading sentiment little shaky. The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96 in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on likely intervention from the central bank. It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals. The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days. Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas largely supplemented the recovery momentum. A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead of expiry also helped in propping up the currency. The currency markets worldwide are rattled with overlapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex dealer commented. The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at 8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore. Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD 82 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014. At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
27/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
BUY
27/09/18
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP
27/09/18
NCDEX GUARGUM5
27/09/18
Contract Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
5000
5050 5100
4950
NOT EXECUTED
SELL
4860
4800-4750
4900
NOT EXECUTED
OCT
BUY
9250
9300 9350
9200
NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX GUARGUM5
OCT
SELL
9070
9020-8970
9120
NOT EXECUTED
27/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
BUY
30630
30680 30730
30590
SL TRIGGERED
27/09/18
MCX GOLD
OCT
SELL
30560
30510 30450
27/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
BUY
38050
38100 39150
38000
SL TRIGGERED
27/09/18
MCX SILVER
SEP
SELL
37800
37750 36700
37850
TARGET HIT
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
27/09/18
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
11080-70
11000-10050
11130
TARGET HIT
27/09/18
HINDALCO
FUTURE
BUY
251-252
255-259
249
NOT EXECUTED
27/09/18
NTPC
FUTURE
BUY
168-170
172-176
165
OPEN
27/09/18
HDFCLIFE
CASH
BUY
402-404
410-420
398
TARGET HIT
Entry Level
30600
TARGET HIT
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Special Report 28-Sep-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
0.13
MONDAY, SEPT. 24 8:30 am
Chicago Fed national activity index
Aug.
TUESDAY, SEPT. 25 9 am
Case-Shiller home price index
July
--
6.2%
10 am
Consumer confidence index
Sept.
133.4
133.4
WEDNESDA Y, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26
WEDNESDAY , SEPT. 26
2-2.25%
1.75-2%
WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, SEPT. AY, SEPT. 26 26 10 am
2 pm
FOMC announcement/projections
2:30 pm
Jerome Powell press conference THURSDAY, SEPT. 27
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
9/22
--
201,000
8:30 am
GDP revision
Q2
4.2%
4.2%
8:30 am
Durable goods orders
Aug.
2.0%
-1.7%
8:30 am
Core capex orders
Aug.
--
1.6%
--
-0.7%
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
8:30 am 10 am
Pending home sales
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
Aug. FRIDAY, SEPT. 28 Disclaimer
FRIDAY, SEPT. 28
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