daily i-forex report by epicreserach 14-3-2013

DAILY I FOREX REPORT 14THMARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

 Forex: EUR/USD Near Breakout, GBP/USD Risk Reversal, NZD/USD Awaits RBNZ

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3065 tgs 1.3085/1.3105 sl 1.3035

 Forex News: Aussie Marginally Higher on Consumer Confidence Report  EUR/USD- Trading The U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report Yen Gains as Risk Appetite Falters, Euro Eyes Italian Bond Sale

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 96.10 tgt 96.30/96.50 SL 95.80

 BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.4975 tgt 1.4995/1.5015 SL

he Japanese Yen is outperforming as European stocks follow Asian bourses lower in early trade, with risk aversion driving an unwinding of carry trades funded cheaply in the perennially low-yielding currency. Not surprisingly, the high-beta Australian and New Zealand Dollars are feeling the brunt of the selloff. While no singular catalyst behind souring risk appetite has emerged, the move may simply owe to profit-taking.

1.4945

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HOURLY HOURLY EURUSD CHART EURUSD CHART 

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3030 HIGH: 1.3065 LOW: 1.3009 CLOSE: 1.3019

 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

REVERSAL

 TREND : BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI => 46(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 95.84 HIGH: 96.10 LOW: 95.44 CLOSE: 95.83

 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>46(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART  HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.4904 HIGH: 1.4974 LOW: 1.4897 CLOSE: 1.4967

 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD REVERSAL  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>

34(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8742 HIGH: 0.8746 LOW: 0.8695 CLOSE: 0.8697

 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>62(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.5550 HIGH: 82.6440 LOW: 82.3330 CLOSE: 82.5900

 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations

High

00:01

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB)

Low

-44

-45

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)

Medium

-21.5%

-26.4%

07:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)

Medium

13.7B

13.9B

12.1B

07:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)

Low

11.3B

10.5B

20.2B

07:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

3.3%

0.7%

-1.5%

07:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

1.4%

0.5%

0.2%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)

Low

2.9%

2.9%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.8%

0.2%

08:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.9%

4.7%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

Medium

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

Medium

-2.8%

-2.7%

-2.7%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.1%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2%

1.4%

Mon Mar 11

Notes

Tue Mar 12

23:50

JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-5.5

23:50

JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-10.3

00:01

EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)

Low

00:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)

Medium

00:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)

Low

-2

00:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (FEB)

Medium

3

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)

Low

$A49.9B

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)

Low

$A22.4B

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)

Medium

43.3

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.6%

0.6%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)

High

1.5%

1.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F)

High

1.8%

1.8%

09:00

EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)

Low

0.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1%

1.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.1%

-1.7%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0%

1.6%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0%

-1.5%

09:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-£8950

-£8897

-1%

-4%

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JAN)

09:30

Medium

-£3200

-£3201

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Low

-£4500

-£4239

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)

Low

90.0

88.9

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)

Low

3617

15:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)

Medium

0.0%

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)

Medium

21:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)

23:30

23:30

Low

1.9%

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)

Medium

7.7%

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

108.3

AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

7%

NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (2Q)

Medium

15%

00:30

AUD Home Loans (JAN)

Medium

00:30

AUD Investment Lending (JAN)

Low

-2.4%

00:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.7%

06:30

EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.1%

0.70%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-2.0%

-2.3%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)

Low

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.5%

0.6%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6%

-1.3%

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)

High

0.5%

0.1%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)

Medium

0.5%

0.2%

Wed Mar 13

0.5%

-1.5%

14.80%

Thu Mar 14

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)

14:00

USD Business Inventories (JAN)

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)

Low

3833K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

257K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 8)

Low

-616K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

-3830K

20:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

짜657.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

짜269.6B

00:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)

Medium

2.2%

CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

14%

JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

11

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.8%

-7.3%

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

Low

0.2%

0.1%

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

2.50%

2.50%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (FEB)

High

10.0K

10.4K

00:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

5.5%

5.4%

00:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-9.8K

00:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

20.2K

00:30

AUD Participation Rate (FEB)

Low

02:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

Low

65.0%

65.0%

66.7%

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-5.4%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

1.0%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium

-5.1%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

2.9%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)

Medium

08:30

CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (4Q)

Low

-0.7%

12:30

CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)

Low

12:30

USD Current Account Balance (4Q)

Low

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2%

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.3%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.6%

0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.7%

1.4%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)

Medium

340K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)

Low

3094K

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)

Low

-146

20:30

USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review

Low

21:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Medium

0.00%

-$112.8B

0.00%

-$107.5B

55.2

Fri Mar 15

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

Medium

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

121

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)

Low

2.3%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.1%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.8%

09:30

EUR Itally General Government Debt (JAN)

Medium

1988.4B

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4%

-1.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8%

1.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.3%

1.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)

Low

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (MAR)

Low

8

10.04

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4%

0.0%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8%

1.6%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

2.0%

1.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a.

(FEB)

Medium

232.138

232.108

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)

Low

230.28

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)

Low

$25.2B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)

Medium

$64.2B

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.3%

13:15

USD Industrial Production (FEB)

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)

Low

79.3%

79.1%

2.0%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)

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Low

0.3%

-0.4%

Medium

78

77.6

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