Special report by epic research 11 december 2013

Page 1

DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

Global markets at a glance Asian share markets were idling through another indecisive session on Wednesday as investors booked profits on a range of once-crowded positions, sending the dollar and Wall Street lower, while lifting the euro, bonds and gold. European shares slipped on Tuesday, weighed down by major Swiss stocks as a rally in the Swiss franc raised fresh concern about the country's exports. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.7 percent to 1,262.98 points. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 52.4 points or 0.33 percent, to 15,973.13, the S&P 500 lost 5.75 points or 0.32 percent, to 1,802.62 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 8.261 points or 0.2 percent, to 4,060.49. Wall Street Update U.S. stocks were modestly lower on Tuesday on profittaking after the S&P 500 index climbed to a record in the prior session Wall Street falls after record; Fed remains in focus. Stocks slipped on Tuesday, a day after a record close on the S&P 500, with traders looking ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting in the absence of market-moving economic data. Previous day Roundup The market fell half a percent on profit booking on Tuesday after a 3% rally in previous three consecutive sessions. The 50-share NSE benchmark Nifty fell 31.05 points to 6,332.85 after hitting an intraday low of 6,307.55. The 30share BSE Sensex closed at 21,255.26, down 71.16 points. The broader markets, too, declined. The BSE Midcap was down 0.3% and Small-cap lost 0.7%. It was a consolidation day for the market. Index stats The Bankex and Bank Nifty both declined 1.78% & 1.84% respectively. Among the sartorial indices most of the sectors were down; Capital Goods [down 316.20pts], Oil & Gas [down 32.77pts], AUTO [down 11.03pts], PSU [down 155.16pts], Consumer Durables [down 53.59pts], Realty [down 20.76pts], , Power [down 71.40pts] and the index gained were; FMCG [up 55.71pts], , TECK [up 70.74pts], IT [up 175.12pts], Metals [up 90.05pts], Healthcare [up 38.08pts].

YOUR MINTVISORY

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

15,973.13

-0.33

S&P 500

1,802.62

-0.32

NASDAQ EURO STO FTSE 100

4,060.49 2,960.86 6,523.31

-0.20 -0.93 -0.55

Nikkei 225 Hong Kong

15,537.56 23,594.63

-0.47 -0.63

DJl

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

TCS

2,087

82.15

+4.10

HEROMOTOCO

2,204

80.80

+3.81

SSLT

196.5

4.65

+2.42

873.05

20.15

+2.36

318

4.95

+1.58

CMP

Change

% Chg

136 1,099.75 97.40 1,159 166.10

17.45 47.15 3.90 42.70 5.50

-11.37 -4.11 -3.85 -3.55 -3.21

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AMARAJABAT

362.9

15.05

+4.33

BHARATFORG

320.55

5.60

+1.78

CROMPGREAV

134.85

0.35

-0.26

ESCORTS

129.5

1.40

-1.07

HEROMOTOCO

2,204

80.80

+3.81

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

48.25 171.1

1.60 0.00

-3.21 0.00

CMP

Change

% Chg

6,332.85 21,256.25

-31.05 -71.16

-0.49 -0.33

LUPIN ITC

Top Losers Company

NTPC LT POWERGRID ICICBANK BHEL

Stocks at 52 Week’s high Symbol

Stocks at 52 Week’s Low Symbol

DSKULKARNI HERITGFOOD

Indian Indices Company NIFTY SENSEX

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DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

EQUITY CASH & FUTURE

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. LUPIN

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 1. SASKEN COMMUNICATION

LUPIN FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it continues to sustain above 880, We advise buying above 880 levels with strict stop loss 870 for the targets of 890-900 levels.

SASKEN COMMUNICATION is looking strong on charts. We advise buying above 176 levels with strict stop loss of 166 for the targets of 186-196 levels.

2. VOLTAS

MACRO NEWS  IOC tops Fortune India 500 list; RIL at second spot. IOC was the biggest with annual revenue of Rs 4,75,867 cr, followed by Reliance Industries (RIL) with a full-year revenue of Rs 4,09,883 cr.  India exported about 12 lakh tonnes of sugar in the marketing year 2012-13. In the current marketing year, the country had exported about 1.5 lakh tonnes of sugar till October .  India’s Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production Date to be announced on 12 December.  Domestic cooking gas (LPG) price was today hiked by Rs 3.46 per cylinder after the government raised the commission paid to dealers by over 9 percent.  Indian and Iranian officials are meeting this week to discuss how to unlock the first oil payments to Iran since the United States and other world powers eased sanctions last month in exchange for curbs to Tehran's nuclear program.  Indian banks' refinancing with RBI rises to 242.66 billion Rupees. Indian banks' cash balances with RBI rise to 3.19 trillion rupees.

VOLTAS FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it continues to sustain above 125 We advise buying around 124-125 levels with strict stop loss of 120 for the targets of 128-130 .

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DAILY REPORT FUTURE & OPTION

11th DECEMBER. 2013

STOCKS IN NEWS  ONGC to appeal in Supreme Court against Gujarat HC order.  Coal India issues work order to set up 4 washeries  L&T Shipbuilding gets Rs 943cr order from Qatar firm  Etihad Airways doubles India flights, triples number of seats  Reliance Communications mulling $1bn debt issue.  Govt. to sell Hindustan Zinc stake through auction route, Cabinet note soon.

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION Symbol

Option Type

Strike Price

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

PE

6,300

56.70

2,53,847

36,87,100

NIFTY

PE

6,200

31.00

2,24,236

49,56,300

NIFTY

PE

6,100

16.75

1,58,191

44,09,550

BANK NIFTY

PE

11,000

48.00

15,269

2,82,125

SBIN

PE

1,800

29.00

3,920

2,74,750

RELIANCE

PE

880

12.40

2,300

1,99,750

TCS

PE

2,000

9.50

2,031

1,69,875

DLF

PE

160

6.35

2,021

6,16,000

Strike Price

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY FUTURE

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Option Type

NIFTY

CE

6,400

70.30

3,32,926

54,73,600

NIFTY

CE

6,500

33.45

3,05,717

53,45,200

NIFTY

CE

6,600

13.10

1,79,116

41,28,400

BANKNIFTY

CE

12,500

79.50

26,363

2,58,775

SBIN

CE

1,900

33.60

5,412

3,55,500

RELIANCE

CE

900

12.10

5,006

7,47,250

TCS

CE

2,100

39.00

4,398

1,93,500

NTPC

CE

140

3.15

3,926

29,24,000

INFY

CE

3,400

51.65

2,706

1,56,000

Nifty Future closed in the green in the last trading session. We advise selling around 6350-6330 with strict stop loss of 6300 for the targets of 6380-6420 levels.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

53208

1679.72

47450

1496.46

560937

17799.30

183.26

INDEX OPTIONS

322523

10046.29

370265

11507.16

1685052

53203.29

-1460.86

STOCK FUTURES

64253

1847.22

87053

2538.65

1142529

32244.68

-691.43

STOCK OPTIONS

33857

973.83

34698

992.26

46190

1259.16

-18.43

TOTAL

-1987.46

INDICES NIFTY

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

6279.51

6306.18

6334.21

6360.88

6388.91

NIFTYJUNIOR

12373.63

12431.71

12514.63

12572.71

12655.63

BANK NIFTY

11602.78

11723.11

11895.28

12015.61

12187.78

YOUR MINTVISORY

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DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY MCX

RECOMMENDATIONS SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 45650 TGTS 45900/46200 SL 45350 SELL SILVER BELOW 45150 TGTS 44900/44600 SL 45450 GOLD

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Silver prices moved up by 1.81 per cent to Rs 45,849 per kg in futures market yesterday as speculators created fresh positions on higher global trend. At the MCX, silver for delivery in May rose by Rs 813, or 1.81 per cent, to Rs 45,849 per kg in business turnover of 149 lots. March silver gained Rs 756, or 1.71 per cent, to Rs 44,916 per kg in 6,957 lots. Fresh positions built up by speculators on the back of a higher global trend mainly led to rise in silver prices at futures trade. Meanwhile, silver added 0.5 per cent to $19.95 an ounce in Singapore. Gold prices rose by 0.83 per cent to Rs 29,324 per ten grams in futures trade yesterday as speculators created fresh positions, tracking a firm global trend. At the MCX, gold for delivery in April rose by Rs 239, or 0.83 per cent, to Rs 28,650 per ten grams in a business turnover of 91 lots. February gold added Rs 207, or 0.71 per cent, to Rs 29,117 per ten grams in 3,919 lots. Speculators created fresh positions, tracking a firm global trend as the dollar extended its decline and investors assessed whether the Federal Reserve will pare stimulus after hints of a reduction from policy makers, mainly influenced gold prices at futures trade. Meanwhile, gold advanced 0.6 per cent to $1,247.40 an ounce in Singapore. Copper prices rose by 0.52 per cent to Rs 453.90 per kg in futures trade yesterday as speculators built-up fresh positions supported by pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market. At the MCX, copper for delivery in April rose by Rs 2.35, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 453.90 per kg in business turnover of 280 lots. February copper traded higher by Rs 2.15, or 0.48 per cent, to Rs 447.95 per kg in 8,750 lots.

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 29600 TGTS 29900/30200 SL 29300 SELL GOLD BELOW 29300 TGTS 29100/28800 SL 29600

YOUR MINTVISORY

Nickel prices rose by 0.54 per cent to Rs 857.50 per kg in futures trade yesterday, amid pick up in domestic demand and firm global trend. At the MCX nickel for delivery in December rose by Rs 4.60, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 857.50 per kg in business turnover of 4,020 lots. January nickel gained Rs 4.60, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 865.50 per kg in 197 lots. Besides pick up in domestic demand, firm global trend mainly led to rise in nickel prices at futures trade.

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DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

NCDEX

RECOMMENDATIONS CASTORSEED

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley

1376.5

-0.25

Castor Seed

4601

+2.84

Chana

2832

-3.05

Chilli

6890

+2.23

Coriander

7422

-1.84

Cotton Seed Oilcake

1405

-1.61

Jeera

125.1

-0.54

Mustard seed

3635

-1.94

710.25

+0.11

4780

-3.78

Ref Soya Oil Turmeric BUY CASTORSEED ABOVE 4615 TGTS 4645/4695 SL 4565 SELL CASTORSEED BELOW 4430 TGTS 4400/4350 SL 4480 DHANIYA

NCDEX ROUNDUP India's palm oil imports could drop about seven per cent in November, their first monthly decline since August, on weaker demand at the start of the cold weather that solidifies the oil and makes it unusable. India's vegetable oil marketing year runs from November to October. From July onwards, government started selling wheat stock held in the Food Corporation of India (FCI) through weekly tenders to bulk buyers. It aims to sell a total of 8.5 million tonnes of wheat by end of March, 2014 at base price of Rs 1,500 per quintal plus the freight depending on the location. Crude palm oil prices fell by Rs 1.60 to 565.40 per kg in futures trade yesterday as speculators reduced their exposures largely on subdued spot demand. At the MCX, crude palm oil for January delivery shed Rs 1.60, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 565.40 per 10 kg with a turnover of 212 lots.

SELL DHANIYA BELOW 7410 TGTS 7380,7330 SL 7460 BUY DHANIYA ABOVE 7660 TGTS 7690,7740 SL 7610

YOUR MINTVISORY

Potato prices edged higher by 0.49 per cent to Rs 939.60 per quintal in futures market yesterday on speculators increasing their positions driven by firming spot markets trend amid restricted arrivals. At the MCX potato for delivery in March traded higher by Rs 4.60, or 0.49 per cent, to Rs 939.60 per quintal, with a business turnover of 49 lots.

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DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

CURRENCY

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rupee- $

61.2070 Yen-100

Euro

84.1510 GBP

GBP/INR

Rate

59.2900 100.6488

CURRENCY ROUNDUP The Indian rupee edged higher on Tuesday as gains in the euro and lower demand for dollars from oil firms helped offset falls in domestic shares as the impact of the strong showing by the key opposition party in state elections started to fade. The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday accepted all 13 bids for 92.81 billion rupees at its one-day reverse repo auction through which it absorbs excess liquidity into the banking system. It also accepted all 32 bids for 237.28 billion rupees at its one-day repo auction through which it injects liquidity into the banking system.

SELL GBP/INR BELOW 100.55 TGTS 100.33, 100.15 SL 100.99. BUY GBP/INR ABOVE 101.25 TGTS 101.48,101.73 SL 100.80. EUR/INR

SELL EUR/INR BELOW 84.14 TGTS 83.99, 83.82 SL 84.55. BUY EUR/INR ABOVE 84.68 TGTS 84.83, 85.01 SL 84.27.

YOUR MINTVISORY

Traders are now focused on the upcoming November trade data, due sometime this week, for near-term direction, with consumer inflation data due out on Thursday, which will help set expectations ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on Dec. 18. The central bank has raised interest rates by a total of 50 basis points over September and October despite slowing economic growth. The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.04/05 per dollar compared to 61.13/14 on Monday. The unit moved in a range of 60.97 to 61.2950 during the day. Gains tracked a stronger euro, which hit a five-year peak against the yen and a six-week high against the dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for further near-term stimulus from the European Central Bank faded. Some of the recent large dollar demand from state-run oil firms also faded late in the session allowing the rupee to recover some ground. The dollar wobbled near a six-week low against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, hampered by a growing view that the Federal Reserve needs more positive economic data before it decides to start reducing its monetary stimulus. The rupee gained even as shares retreated from record highs hit on Monday as investors booked profits in blue chips. In the offshore nondeliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 61.44 while the three-month was at 62.31.

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DAILY REPORT 11th DECEMBER. 2013

CALL REPORT PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Date

Commodity/ Currency

Contract

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

10/12/13

MCX GOLD

FEB

BUY

29120

29200-29300

29020

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

MCX GOLD

FEB

SELL

28910

28830-28730

29010

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

44510

44710-45010

44210

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

10/12/13

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

43900

43700-43400

44200

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

NCDEX CASTOR SEED

JAN.

SELL

4430

4400-4350

4480

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

NCDEX CASTOR SEED

JAN.

BUY

4500

4530-4580

4450

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

10/12/13

NCDEX DHANIYA

DEC.

SELL

7470

7440-7390

7250

BOOKED PROFIT

10/12/13

JPY/INR

DEC.

SELL

59.01

58.84-58.68

59.30

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

JPY/INR

DEC.

BUY

60.35

60.51-60.74

59.95

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

EUR/INR

DEC.

SELL

83.70

83.56-83.41

84.10

NOT EXECUTED

10/12/13

EURINR

DEC.

BUY

84.42

84.62-84.85

84.02

BOOKED PROFIT

Date

Scrip

CASH/FUTURE

Strategy

Entry Level Target

Stop Loss

Remark

28/11/13

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

6040-6060

6090-6125

6020

NOT EXECUTED

28/11/13

UPL LTD.

FUTURE

BUY

170

175-180

165

CALL OPEN

28/11/13

VOLTAS

FUTURE

BUY

100

103-105

97

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

28/11/13

CEAT LTD

CASH

BUY

281

287-292

275

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

26/11/13

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

6060-6080

6125-6150

6020

CALL OPEN

US ECONOMIC REPORT TIME (ET)

REPORT

2 pm

Federal budget

8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 10 am

Weekly jobless claims Retail sales Retail sales ex-autos Import price index Business inventories

8:30 am 8:30 am

Producer price index Core PPI

PERIOD

ACTUAL

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 11 Nov. THURSDAY, DEC. 12 12/7 Nov. Nov. Nov. Oct. FRIDAY, DEC. 13 Nov. Nov.

CONSENSUSFORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

-$172 bln

N/A 0.3% 0.2% -0.8% 0.3%

N/A 0.4% 0.2% -0.7% 0.6%

0.1% 0.1%

-0.2% 0.2%

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YOUR MINTVISORY

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