Special report by epic research 1 january 2014

Page 1

DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

Global markets at a glance Stocks closed 2013 by setting record highs and world equity markets ended at six-year peaks on Tuesday, while benchmark bond yields posted their first annual rise since 2009. European shares rose on Tuesday to mark a positive end to 2013, with pan-European indexes posting their best annual gains since 2009 and many investors forecasting more progress next year. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 0.3 percent at 1,315.22 points, while the euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index rose 0.3 percent to 3,109.02 points.

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

16,576.66

+0.44

S&P 500

1,848.36

+0.40

NASDAQ EURO STO FTSE 100

4,176.59 3,109.00 6,749.09

+0.54 +0.26 +0.26

Nikkei 225 Hong Kong

16,291.31 23,306.39

+0.59 +0.26

DJl

Top Gainers Company

Wall Street Update Stocks closed out their best year in more than 15 on Tuesday, with major indexes advancing throughout 2013 on back of Federal Reserve's massive stimulus and expectations for accelerating growth going forward. Wall Street ended 2013 with its positive momentum intact, advancing in its final trading day of the year on the back of positive consumer confidence data. Both Dow and S&P 500 finished the final trading day of 2013 at record closing highs. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 72.37 points, or 0.44%, to end at 16,576.66. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX advanced 7.29 points, or 0.40 percent, to finish at 1,848.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 22.39 points, or 0.54 percent, to close at 4,176.59.

CMP

Change

% Chg

109.35

4.95

+4.72

JPASSOCIAT

54.45

1.65

+3.13

TATAPOWER

91.10

2.25

+2.53

ULTRACEMCO

1,766.00

26.80

+1.54

HCLTECH

1,265.70

19.00

+1.52

CMP

Change

% Chg

176.20 1,762.00 260.90 942.05 423.05

3.20 15.20 2.15 6.35 2.50

-1.78 -0.86 -0.82 -0.67 -0.59

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

APOLLOTYRE

106.85

5.50

+5.43

FLEXITUFF

226.00

0.15

-0.07

GMRINFRA

24.75

0.40

+1.64

JSWSTEEL

1,016.10

6.20

-0.61

JUSTDIAL

1,441.00

22.80

+1.61

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

CMP

Change

% Chg

6,304.00 21,170.68

+12.90 +27.67

+0.21 +0.13

IDFC

Top Losers Company

BHEL MARYTI JINDALSTEL M&M TATASTEEL

Stocks at 52 Week’s high Previous day Roundup The market closed the last session of 2013 on a flat note amid thin volumes with the Nifty holding the 6300 level on Tuesday. The Sensex rose 27.67 points yesterday to close at 21,170.68, and the Nifty climbed 12.90 points to 6,304, but the broader markets outperformed benchmarks. Index stats The Bankex and Bank Nifty both advanced 0.12% & 0.08% respectively. Among the sartorial indices almost all the sectors were slightly up; Capital Goods [up 21.10pts], AUTO [up 6.51pts], PSU [up 19.04pts], Consumer Durables [up 10.41pts], Realty [up 2.46pts], TECK [up 7.98pts], IT [up 14.39 pts], Power [up 10.07pts], Healthcare [up 20.88pts] and Oil & Gas [up 45.95pts], the index declined were FMCG [down 3.82pts], Metals [down 20.94pts].

Symbol

Stocks at 52 Week’s Low Symbol

--

Indian Indices Company NIFTY SENSEX

YOUR MINTVISORY

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DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

EQUITY CASH & FUTURE

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. MCDOWELL-N

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 1. ARIES AGRO LTD

MC DOWELL FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it continues to sustain above 2600. We advise buying around 26002620 levels with strict stop loss 2560 for the targets of 2650-2690

ARIES AGRO LTD is looking strong on charts. We advice buying above 52 levels with strict stop loss of 48 for the targets of 56-60 levels.

2. IDFC

MACRO NEWS  Maharashtra state govt. has hiked the ready reckoner rates for residential and commercial properties.  RBI revises norms on gold dore imports by bullion refineries. Quantum of gold dore to be imported should be determined lot-wise on the basis of export performance.  FMC says Indian Bullion Market Association members can pay directly from NSEL escrow account.  Lakshmi Vilas Bank to mull rights issue on Friday.  Cabinet appointments committee okays tenure extension of BHEL CMD.  Delhi Discom 51:49 JV between private companies and govt. (Tata Power, Reliance Infrastructure in focus).  Delhi, Mumbai LPG consumers to get cash subsidy from Jan 1.  SBI gets shareholders' nod for Rs 11,500-cr QIP .  Fiscal deficit in April-November hits 94% of annual target.  Glenmark faces patent infringement for cancer drug in US.

IDFC FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it continues to sustain above 110. We advise buying on dips around 109-110 levels with strict stop loss 107 for the targets of 112-115.

YOUR MINTVISORY

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DAILY REPORT FUTURE & OPTION

01st JANUARY. 2014

STOCKS IN NEWS  IDBI raises interest rate on term deposits by up to 0.5%.  Adani Power generates highest 4644 mw at Mundra Project  BHEL renovates power plant unit in Uttar Pradesh  ONGC Videsh completes acquisition of 12% stake in Brazil oil field.  Adani Power plant at Mundra achieves full load of 4,620 MW .

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION Symbol

Option Type

Strike Price

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

PE

6,300

80.85

1,30,099

39,54,800

NIFTY

PE

6,200

49.10

83,705

36,54,400

NIFTY

PE

6,100

28.80

63,278

30,21,400

BANK NIFTY

PE

11,000 135.05

4,759

1,36,725

APOLLOTYRE

PE

100

2.50

1,873

17,44,000

SBIN

PE

1,750

46.65

1,788

1,08,125

RELIANCE

PE

900

21.00

1,421

2,58,500

MCDOWELL-N

PE

2,500

46.50

890

79,625

NIFTY FUTURE

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Option Type

Strike Price

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

CE

6,400

78.65

1,18,404

37,09,250

NIFTY

CE

6,500

41.35

89,346

45,74,050

NIFTY

CE

6,300

132.00

52,543

25,53,400

BANKNIFTY

CE

12,000

114.35

7,584

2,15,000

MCDOWELL-N

CE

2,600

112.10

2,002

2,42,125

SBIN

CE

1,800

39.40

4,150

4,94,750

RELIANCE

CE

900

23.55

4,131

6,11,750 Nifty Future closed in the green in the last trading ses-

APOLLOTYRE

CE

110

4.55

2,673

18,36,000 sion. We advise buying around 6340-6350 with strict

SBIN

CE

1,900

13.80

1,960

stop loss of 6310 for the targets of 6375-6390 levels.

2,97,875

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

21143

668.84

20640

655.22

437017

13785.40

13.62

INDEX OPTIONS

111712

3467.12

111215

3460.19

956648

30111.91

6.93

STOCK FUTURES

31164

1037.68

37549

1255.33

952546

30713.29

-217.65

STOCK OPTIONS

12734

379.18

12926

375.06

20607

602.71

4.12

TOTAL

-192.98

INDICES NIFTY

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

6272.86

6288.43

6302.86

6318.43

6332.86

NIFTYJUNIOR

12821.28

12877.26

12909.98

12965.96

12998.68

BANK NIFTY

11265.25

11325.25

11376.55

11436.55

11487.85

YOUR MINTVISORY

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DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

COMMODITY MCX

RECOMMENDATIONS SILVER

COMMODITY ROUNDUP The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed gold refiners to import dore up to 15 per cent of their gross average viable quantity, based on their licence entitlement in the first two months, for making this available to exporters on a first-in first-out basis. The quantum of gold dore to be imported should be determined lot-wise, on the basis of export performance, RBI said. Till now, dore import was banned and gold refineries were sourcing their input from scrap gold. Gold jewellery manufacturers have welcomed the move. RBI and the government had imposed several restrictions on gold consumption, including raising import duty, when the current account deficit (CAD) touched a record high of 4.8 per cent of GDP last year. At that time, RBI had mandated imports of the precious metal against suppliers’ or buyers’ credit would be on 100 per cent cash margin, and on a document against payment basis.

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 44400 TGTS 44600/44900 SL 44040 SELL SILVER BELOW 43730 TGTS 43530/43230 SL 44100 GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 28480 TGTS 28560/28660 SL 28380 SELL GOLD BELOW 28350 TGTS 28270/28170 SL 28480

YOUR MINTVISORY

Nickel prices declined 0.47%, to Rs 863.50 per kg in futures trading yesterday as speculators reduced their holdings amid a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in current month, December eased by Rs 4.10, or 0.47%, to Rs 863.50 per kg in business turnover of 231 lots. On the similar lines, the metal for delivery in January shed Rs 3.50, or 0.40%, to Rs 872.50 per kg in 457 lots. Off-loading of positions by speculators in tune with a weak global trend in base metals and ending monthly settlement, mainly kept pressure on nickel futures. Lead prices weakened by 0.72 % to Rs 138 per kg in futures trade yesterday as speculators indulged in squaring-up of positions in view of ending settlement amid a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in January weakened by Re one, or 0.72%, to Rs 138 per kg in business turnover of 378 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in December traded lower by 90 paisa, or 0.65% to Rs 136.70 per kg in 268 lots. THE fall in lead futures to squaring up of positions in view of monthly settlement and a weak global trend.

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DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

NCDEX

RECOMMENDATIONS CASTORSEED

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Castor Seed

4562

+3.99

Chana

3081

+0.49

Coriander

8063

+4.00

Cotton Seed Oilcake

1471

-0.88

12592.5

+0.40

Maize– Feed/ Industrial Grades

1190

-0.58

Mustard seed

3520

+0.34

Soy Bean

3822

+1.31

Sugar M Grade

2805

0.00

Turmeric

6616

+3.99

Jeera

BUY CASTORSEED FEB ABOVE 4675 TGTS 4705,4755 SL 4625 SELL CASTORSEED FEB BELOW 4550 TGTS 4520,4470 SL 4600

NCDEX ROUNDUP DHANIYA

India’s coffee exports recorded a marginal rise of three per cent to 313,128 tonnes for the calendar year 2013 (till December 27), as against 303,982 tonnes in the same period last year. In the full year ended December 31, 2012, India had exported 305,247 tonnes. In value terms, the exporters earned $837.14 million, a decline of 7.55 per cent over the corresponding period of previous year. Between January and December 2012, the earnings stood at $909.66 million. In rupee terms, however, the exporters earned a higher amount of Rs 4,705.63 crore as against Rs 4,616.62 crore due to depreciation against the dollar. In 2012, earnings from coffee exports stood at Rs 4,637.87 crore.

BUY DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 8120 TGTS 8150,8200 SL 8070 SELL DHANIYA JAN BELOW 8010 TGTS 7980,7930 SL 8060

YOUR MINTVISORY

Tomato, potato and onion were the three perishable commodities that disturbed the kitchen budget in 2013, with the highest inflation in both wholesale and retail markets. Pulses, edible oils and sugar proved saviours for consumers, with a steep fall in their prices despite an upsurge in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

CURRENCY

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rupee- $

61.8970 Yen-100

Euro

85.3635 GBP

USD/INR

Rate

58.9700 102.0094

CURRENCY ROUNDUP

The euro ended 2013 close to its highest level in two years against the dollar. But a Reuters poll shows it is expected to reverse its upward trend next year as the continued soft stance of the European Central Bank contrasts with the Fed's. On Tuesday, the single currency inched down to $1.3756, still up more than 4 percent for the year. The dollar was slightly higher against the yen at 105.32, posting its biggest annual gain against the yen in 34 years, with the Japanese currency hit by the Bank of Japan's money-printing.

SELL USD/INR BELOW 62.04 TGTS 61.89, 61.71 SL 62.40. BUY USD/INR ABOVE 62.45 TGTS 62.59, 62.82 SL 62.09. JPY/INR

The easing of the euro zone crisis and signs of a pick-up in economic activity even in the bloc's weakest states have offered strong support to the euro and brought Italian and Spanish debt yields down to just over half their crisis peaks. In the oil market, U.S. oil futures ended down 87 cents to $98.42. The dollar traded mixed to higher against most major currencies on Tuesday after widely-watched consumer confidence data beat expectations and cemented expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue scaling down stimulus programs in 2014. In U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was down 0.30% at 1.3759. The Conference Board reported earlier that its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November, beating consensus forecasts for a 76.0 reading.

SELL JPY/INR BELOW 59.15 TGTS 59.00, 58.84 SL 59.51. BUY JPY/INR ABOVE 59.64 TGTS 59.80, 59.98 SL 59.28.

YOUR MINTVISORY

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.09% at 105.24, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.42% at 0.8914. The dollar was down against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD down 0.17% at 1.0629, AUD/USD up 0.30% at 0.8932 and NZD/ USD trading up 0.32% at 0.8230. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.16% at 80.30.

Call us at +91-731-6642300


DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

CALL REPORT PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

Contract

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

31/12/13

MCX GOLD

FEB.

BUY

28480

28560-28660

28380

BOOKED PROFIT

31/12/13

MCX GOLD

FEB.

SELL

28250

28170-28070

28350

SL TRIGGERED

31/12/13

MCX SILVER

MAR.

BUY

44480

44680-44980

44080

SL TRIGGERED

31/12/13

MCX SILVER

MAR.

SELL

43900

43700-43400

44250

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

31/12/13

NCDEX CASTOR SEED

FEB.

SELL

4350

4320-4270

4400

NOT EXECUTED

31/12/13

NCDEX CASTOR SEED

FEB.

BUY

4480

4510-4560

4430

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

31/12/13

NCDEX DHANIYA

JAN.

BUY

7805

7835-7885

7755

BOOKED FULL PROFIT

31/12/13

NCDEX DHANIYA

JAN.

SELL

7670

7640-7590

7720

NOT EXECUTED

31/12/13

USD/INR

JAN.

SELL

62.15

61.99-61.79

62.51

NO PROFIT NO LOSS

31/12/13

USD/INR

JAN.

BUY

62.59

62.73-62.99

62.14

NOT EXECUTED

31/12/13

GBP/INR

JAN.

SELL

102.38

102.20-101.99

102.78

NOT EXECUTED

31/12/13

GBP/INR

JAN.

BUY

103.10

103.29-103.51

102.70

NOT EXECUTED

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

31/12/13

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

6370-6390

6320-6280

6420

CALL OPEN

31/12/13

COAL INDIA

FUTURE

BUY

288-290

296-300

285

CALL OPEN

31/12/13

BHEL

FUTURE

BUY

168-170

175-180

165

CALL OPEN

31/12/13

KERNEX

CASH

BUY

54

58-62

50

NOT EXECUTED

30/12/13

TCS

FUTURE

BUY

2160-2170

2190-2220

2140

BOKED PROFIT

30/12/13

KOTLE PATIL

CASH

BUY

95

100-105

95

CALL OPEN

27/12/13

TATA STEEL

FUTURE

BUY

428

434-438

422

CALL OPEN

24/12/13

LICHOUSING

FUTURE

BUY

215-216

220-225

210

BOOKED PROFIT

23/12/13

RELIANCE

FUTURE

BUY

895-900

915-935

878

CALL OPEN

YOUR MINTVISORY

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DAILY REPORT 01st JANUARY. 2014

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

CONSENSUS FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

-0.6%

MONDAY, DEC. 30 10 am

Pending home sales

Nov. TUESDAY, DEC. 31

9 am 9:45 am 10 am

Case-Shiller home prices

Oct.

--

13.3% y-o-y

Chicago PMI

Dec.

61.8

63.0

Consumer confidence

Dec.

75.0

70.4

12/28

N/A

338,000

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 01 New Year's Day None scheduled THURSDAY, JAN. 02 8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

9 am

Market PMI

Dec.

--

54.4

10 am

ISM

Dec.

56.9%

57.3%

10 am

Construction spending

Nov.

0.9%

0.8%

16.0 mln

16.3 mln

FRIDAY, JAN. 03 TBA

Motor vehicle sales

Dec. Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

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