Resource Development in Russia’s Circumpolar North: Governance, Federal Strategies and Regional Government By Olga Khoreva, Irina N. Il’ina, Carol S. Leonard, Evgenij E. Plisetskij (NRU-HSE) Macarthur Foundation Grant Project #105059 Conference NRU-HSE 13 November 2014
Outline
Trends in Regional Fiscal Policy The CPN in the Federal Sphere of Strategic Resources Policy
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Distinctive Economic Geography of the CPN and the Economy of the CPEN in the Russian Federation
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Introduction
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The Macarther Project Framework
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INTRODUCTION
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Challenge of Resource Development for Governance of the CPN
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• Under discussion here: Economic Resources and Governance
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• Climate Change • Pressure on economic resources
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Two urgent governance challenges in the CPN
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Figure 1 Stages of World Energy Development *Source: ERIRAS/AC (2013).
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Discovered and Potential
• 2009: already produce 10% of petroleum reserves
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• Up to 30% of global gas reserves • 13% of undiscovered oil
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• The latter:
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CPN
Population Density Source: Young, T. K., S. Chatwood, and R. Rawat (2010), “Data Brief from the Circumpolar Health Observatory: Introduction and Population [2010-1],” International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 69: 4, 405.
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• Among the eight countries in focus, Canada, Finland, Greenland (Denmark), Alaska (US), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Russian Federation • This project aims to compare only three: Canada, the Russian Federation and Norway, selected for diversity of governance systems, possible within budget limitations. • These three countries have in common abundance of mineral resources deposited unevenly
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Regions above above 55 ° latitude in the eight countries north of the Arctic circle
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GEOGRAPHIC DISTINCTIVENESS
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Economy of the Circumpolar North in Russia
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• Urban density (5 – 8 persons per square kilometer ) • Emerging from Soviet urban development • Triumph • Infrastructure for supply networks • Post-Soviet out-migration (by 2000, 57% of the population had left) • Post-2000 recovery and urban resilience
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Characteristics
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• Average per capita real RGP over twice elsewhere (not everywhere) • Fixed capital not as well provided • Of mineral resources, mainly energy • Administrative staff has increased in the CPN too to meet services burden
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Economy
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REGIONAL FISCAL POLICY Framework Paper 13 November 2014
Trends
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• Mixed picture but flexibility balanced with centralized programs ad equalization
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• 1990s • 2000-2008 • 2012 to the present
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Devolution and centralization
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Recent Debt in Some CPN Regions, % GRP* Debt Regional, % GRP
Debt, Regional& Municipal, % GRP
Nenetsk AO Tiumen' Oblast'
0.0
Khanty-Mansyisk AO
0.6
0.7
Yamalo-Nenetsk AO
Debt Regional, % GRP
Debt, Regional& Municipal, % GRP
18.2
19.5
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.7
Kemerovo Oblast'
2.9
3.3
5.7
5.9
Republic of Sakha
4.0
4.4
5.4
6.0
Sakhalin Oblast'
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.7
*GRP for 2013 estimated from annual growth rates, 2005-2010
Resource Regions: Debt 2010, 2013
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Region
2013
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2010
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CIT in Resource Regions in Russia, 2005-2011 (% Total Revenues) 120
80 Russian Federation Tiumen' Oblast'
60
KhMAO Yamalo-Nenetsk AO 40
20
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100
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
17 Corporate Income Tax (CIT), % Revenues
Resource Regions Property Tax, % Total Revenues, 2005-11
25
20 Russian Federation Tiumen' Oblast'
15
KhMAO Yamalo-Nenetsk AO
10
5
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Property Tax, % Revenues
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Ratio of economic spending to total expenses of the consolidated budgets, Resource Regions, 2000-2012 50
40 35 30
25 20 15
2000 2012
10 5 0
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45
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FEDERAL LEVEL PLANNING OF REGIONAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
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Strategic Resources Policy
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• •
•
•
Subsoil use and management of the state subsoil fund; Development of domestic energy markets; Promotion of a rational energy balance; Formulation of a regional energy policy; Innovative and scientific-and-technical policy in the energy sector; Social policy in the energy sector; Technical regulations, national standards and norms improving and stimulating the implementation of key priorities Guidelines for phased in energy efficiency, from stimulating and supporting business entities’ strategic initiatives in investment, innovation, energy-saving, environmental and other priority areas; Improving the management efficiency of state property in the fuel and energy complex.
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• • • • •
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Resources Policy: Centralized
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FRAMEWORK Framework Paper 13 November 2014
Macarthur Project
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• What it aims to do • Examine resources policy and impact • Look at community responses • Look at stakeholders and their views
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Macarthur Project
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THE END Framework Paper 13 November 2014
Thank you for your attention 24
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