Howard Lin, Master's Project (2006)

Policy Impact on the Relationships among Environment, Public Health, and Regional Economic Development in Poyang Lake, China

By

Howard Lin

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Natural Resources and Environment in the University of Michigan May 2005

Thesis Committee: Professor Thomas Gladwin, Chair Professor Bobbie Low Dr. Shuming Bao* * Senior Research Associate, China Data Center, University of Michigan Suite 3630, 1080 S. University Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1106

Abstract The Returning Reclaimed Farmland to Lake and Resettling to New Town policies were implemented in the Poyang Lake Region in Jiangxi, China after the massive 1998 flooding.

The main motivation of these policies was to increase the storage capacity of the lake as an insurance against future flooding. However, little research has been conducted to analyze the impact of the policy on the relationship among the environment, public health, and the regional economy. The goal of this research is three fold: first, the Human Behavior Ecology framework will be applied to address the short-term incentives for the residents to comply; second, system thinking modeling will be constructed to analyze the long-term impact of the policies; third, recommendations and insights will be provided to ensure the sustainability of these policies.

The research shows that the policy was successful short-term because it addressed the localized cost and distributed benefit issues by providing economic incentives for people to comply. However, data from an informal survey showed that a small portion of the local residents did not support the policy, and that some instances of land reclamation were observed.

To better understand the relationship between the environment, public health, and the regional economy, a system thinking approach was applied and a causal loop map and STELLA model were created. The results showed that the key to long-term success of these policies is to promote ecotourism because it provides alternative non lake-contacting income sources and aligns economic incentives with conservation. However, if the expectations of the local residents are not met, they may decide to go back to the abandoned lands and undo the intent of the original policies. Therefore, the government will need to actively manage the expectations of the local residents by providing sufficient support for the residents without promising unrealistic results.

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Acknowledgements The support for this project has been tremendous. Through the support of Dr. Bao at Senior Research Scientist at China Data Center, University of Michigan, I was able to conduct this research through the summer internship in the Key Lab of Poyang Lake Ecological, Environmental and Resource Development Center of Jiangxi Normal University. Several professors in Jiangxi Normal University have been particular helpful with this research: Professor Liu Ying and Professor Zheng Lin. In addition, I also would like to acknowledge the undergraduate students that formed the World Wildlife Fund (WWF)-sponsored Wetland Ambassador Field trip in summer of 2004. Through this activity, I was able to appreciate first-hand the perspective of the residents in the Poyang Lake Region.

In addition, I would like to thank my other two committee members, Professor Bobbi Low and Tom Gladwin. Most of the research is based on what I have learned in their classes: Human Behavior Ecology and System Thinking. Their enthusiasm for this research have kept me motivated and disciplined.

Furthermore, I would also like to acknowledge Professor Koopman at the School of Public Health, University of Michigan. His experience in modeling disease dynamics allowed me to become more familiar with jargon in the world of epidemiology and appreciate the underlining assumptions in disease modeling.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge the Erb Institute, which has been able to support part of my research funding and allowed me to explore intellectually during my third year of a three year dual masters (MBA/MS Environmental Science) program.

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Table of Content Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 3 Background of Poyang Lake........................................................................................................... 4 Environment............................................................................................................................ 4 Lake and Watershed Characteristics................................................................................. 4 Natural Resources ................................................................................................................... 5 Regional Economy.................................................................................................................. 6 Public Health........................................................................................................................... 6 Policy History and Assessment....................................................................................................... 8 The Flood of 1998................................................................................................................... 8 The 32-Characters Mandate.................................................................................................... 8 Policy Motivation and Conditions .......................................................................................... 9 Policy Incentives and Human Behavior Ecology ................................................................. 10 Sentiment from Local Residents........................................................................................... 11 Methods and Data ........................................................................................................... 12 Discussion of Policy Incentives ............................................................................................ 14 System Thinking Model................................................................................................................ 14 Causal Loop Diagram ........................................................................................................... 15 STELLA Model .................................................................................................................... 17 System Behavior Time Period .............................................................................................. 17 Model Overview ................................................................................................................... 18 Key Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 24 Environment.................................................................................................................... 24 Regional Economy.......................................................................................................... 25 Public Health................................................................................................................... 25 Model Control Panel ............................................................................................................. 26 Model Results ....................................................................................................................... 27 Without Ecotourism Scenario ......................................................................................... 28 With Ecotourism Scenario .............................................................................................. 31 With Ecotourism But Higher Expectation Scenario ....................................................... 32 Sensitivity Analysis .............................................................................................................. 34 Model Summary.................................................................................................................... 35 Recommendation and Conclusions............................................................................................... 36 Overall Assessment............................................................................................................... 36 Recommendations................................................................................................................. 37 Regional Economy.......................................................................................................... 37 Environment.................................................................................................................... 37 Public Health................................................................................................................... 37 Areas for Additional Model Consideration........................................................................... 37 Areas for Additional Survey Consideration.......................................................................... 38 Areas for Other Future Research .......................................................................................... 39 Ecotourism ...................................................................................................................... 39

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Water Quality.................................................................................................................. 39 Techniques for Future Research ........................................................................................... 40 Graphical Information System Research ........................................................................ 40 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 40 Appendix....................................................................................................................................... 41 Survey Questionnaires and Results....................................................................................... 41 Demographics data: ........................................................................................................ 41 Opinions on the environment:......................................................................................... 41 Opinions on the interaction between human and environment:...................................... 42 Opinions on government:................................................................................................ 42 Survey Designer.............................................................................................................. 42 Interviewers: ................................................................................................................... 42 Survey Data Analyzer ..................................................................................................... 42

By Occupation and Gender............................................................................................. 43

By Age and Gender......................................................................................................... 43

By Educational Level and Gender .................................................................................. 45

By Household Member and Income Level ..................................................................... 46

By Sources of Income..................................................................................................... 47

By Occupation and Trends on Aquatic Birds ................................................................. 48

By Occupation and Trends in Fishery and Shrimp......................................................... 49

By Trends in Wetland Grass ........................................................................................... 50

By Trends on the Environment ....................................................................................... 51

By Fishing Techniques ................................................................................................... 52

By Lake Quality.............................................................................................................. 53

By Water Quality ............................................................................................................ 54

By Education Level and Biodiversity Familiarity .......................................................... 55

By Damages to Biodiversity ........................................................................................... 56

By Schistosomiasis Infection Rate.................................................................................. 57

By Lake Reclamation Occurrence .................................................................................. 58

By Occupation and Support for Return Lake/Resettlement Policies.............................. 59

By Occupation and Satisfaction with Government Officials.......................................... 60

By Occupation and Negative Impacts of Sand Extraction on Environment................... 61

By Negative Impact of Xiao Bai Yang Tree on Ecology ............................................... 62 Appendix: Survey (in Chinese)............................................................................................. 63 Model Equations ................................................................................................................... 66 Model Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................... 68 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................... 74

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Executive Summary Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is home to millions of migratory birds, including the endangered Siberian Crane. It is also home to millions of farmers and fishermen and is an endemic area for schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease known as snail fever. Because of a major flood in 1998 that affected millions of people and incurred damages in the billions of dollars, the Chinese government has implemented a 32-character mandate to prevent future flooding.

Several policies in the mandate impacted Poyang Lake region residents. First is the Return Reclaimed Farm-to-Lake Policy that aimed to increase the flood storage capacity of this lake by asking the local residents to give up their farmland. Second is the Resettle and Build New Towns Policy where a portion of the residents moved to a non-endemic area where schistosomiasis is not prevalent.

Officially, these two policies are great successes. Over 221,000 households and 908,200 people resettled including 470,000 people resettled to non-endemic areas. Infrastructure-wise, 13 million m2 of area were created for new houses and 2.3 million m2 for other buildings. The lake was restored with 1,000 km2 of surface area and3.3 billion m3 of flood capacity created. The total cost for the 3-year project was US $427 million.

Surveys were taken by the residents of Wucheng, a town beside Poyang Lake, to assess their sentiment toward the policy and the government. They were conducted by the author and his Jiangxi Normal University colleagues as part of a World Wildlife Fund-sponsored field trip during summer of 2004. Over 75% of the 69 respondents supported the policy. The 9% of the respondent who opposed the policy were farmers and fishermen; they are negatively affected by the policy. 12% of survey respondents did not care and 4% did not respond. In a separate question, 9% of the respondents said that they have observed evidence of land reclamation.

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In the short-term, the policy was considered to be successful because it addressed the issue of dispersed benefit and localized cost. By providing strong financial incentives, the government encouraged the local people to resettle and change their livelihood. However, the results of the survey seems to suggest underlying tensions that are causing dissension among the residents and could trigger more land reclamation in the future.

System thinking methodology was used to assess whether the policy will be successful in the long-term. A causal map and a STELLA model were created to quantify the relationships among environment, regional economy, and public health variables.

The model suggests that ecotourism, considered as a type of non lake-contacting income, not only can potentially decrease infection rate, but may also align economic incentives with conservation. However, if the expectations of the residents are not managed properly, the benefit of the all of the policies including supporting ecotourism may be undone as people start to resettle and reclaim the lake again.

Several recommendations were made, including merging the abandoned land with existing nature reserves in the area and creating more opportunities to generate income without contacting schistosomiasis-infected lake water.

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Introduction Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is home to millions of migratory birds, including the endangered Siberian Crane. It is also home to millions of farmers and fishermen and is an endemic area for schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease known as snail fever. Because of a major flood in 1998 that affected millions and incurred damages in the billions, the Chinese government has implemented a 32-character mandate which included Returning Reclaimed Farmland to Lake and Resettling to New Town policies that aimed to increase the flood storage capacity of this lake by 2003.

The research seeks answers to the following questions: * Was the policy successful short-term? * Will the policy be successful long-term?

If so, why?

If not, what needs to be done?

This research was part of the internship opportunity sponsored by the China Data Center at University of Michigan and by the Poyang Lake Key Lab of Jiangxi Normal University.

The overview of the thesis paper is as follows: 1. Background of Poyang Lake 2. Policy History and Assessment 3. System Thinking Modeling 4. Recommendations and Takeaways

Specifically, this thesis will explore the relationships among the environment, public health, and the regional economy.

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Background of Poyang Lake Environment Lake and Watershed Characteristics Poyang Lake, located in the northern part of Jiangxi Province, is the largest freshwater lake in China. It covers over 4,000 km2 during the rainy season in the summer and shrinks to less 1,000 km2 during the dry season in the winter [1]. It is one of the major lakes in the Yangtze River basin system and serves as an important flood prevention reservoir. Below is a figure showing a map of Poyang Lake Region and major rivers in Jiangxi Province.

Figure 1: Map of Poyang Lake and major rivers in Jiangxi Province [1]

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The lake is part of the Yangtze River system, the longest waterway in China. Because of its water storage capacity, it plays a major role in regulating the water level in the system.

During the rainy season, rain water is collected in Poyang Lake from five main rivers – Ganjian, Fuhe, Xinjinag, Raohe, and Xiuhe [1]. During the dry season, Poyang Lake no longer looks like a lake; instead it looks more like a river. Below are pictures depicting the same spot, an island temple in northern part of Poyang Lake, during the dry season and during the rainy season.

Figure 2 & 3: An island temple in northern part of Poyang Lake during summer, left; winter, right.

Courtesy of the author and Professor Li Ying, Jiangxi Normal University

These dynamic changes in water levels create complex wetland areas which then support a diverse array of wildlife.

Natural Resources This region is known mostly for its plentiful fish and endangered birds as well as a wide array of other flora and fauna. The biodiversity ranges from phytoplankton, one of the simplest forms of life, to insects, fish, and birds [2]. During dry season in the winter, this area attracts 310 separate bird species among which are millions of individual waterfowl from Siberia, North Korea, and northern China [2].

Among these migrating waterfowl are Siberian Cranes - one of the most endangered bird species in the world. It is considered Critically Endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List because “it is expected to undergo an extremely rapid decline in the near future, primarily as a result of the destruction and degradation of wetlands in

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its passage and wintering grounds� [3]. The population that winters in China numbers between 2,500 and 3,000 birds and is centered in the Poyang Lake ecosystem [4]. This population holds great potential for the welfare of the species since the other populations in Iran and India have declined to single digit numbers [4].

Regional Economy With an abundance of water and fertile land, the people in this area are mostly rural, living off these natural resources. Two dominant occupations are farming and fishing. However, people in this region have much lower incomes than other parts of China. Below is a graph comparing the average per capita GDP of China, Jiangxi Province, and the Poyang Lake Region:

US $

Comparison of GDP per capita $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $China

Jiangxi Province

Poyang Lake Region

Figure 4: Per capita GDP comparison of China, Jiangxi Province, Poyang Lake Region [5]

The graph shows that residents in the Poyang Lake Region have the lowest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at US$350 when compared to Jiangxi Province at US $610 and China at US $850.

Public Health Due to the nature of the living style of the local people, a parasitic disease called schistosomiasis is prevalent in this area [6]. The disease has a complex life cycle with two types of hosts. The first is a vertebrate host, and this can be humans or other animals such as water buffalo or pigs.

The other intermediate hosts are fresh-water snail species. In one form, the parasite lives inside

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the gut of the vertebrate host and excretes eggs through the host’s feces or urine. The miracidium then hatches from the egg and infects the snail in the wetland. The snail forms many sporocysts that can each produce thousands of cercaria which can then penetrate the skin of the vertebrate host. Once inside a human, it turns into a larval form and grows to an adult worm in about 5 weeks. Once mated with the opposite sex, the worm can then start to excrete eggs, and complete the cycle. Below is a life cycle diagram of schistosomiasis:

In Human

In Water

Figure 5: Schistosomiasis Life Cycle [7]

Current strategies of controlling the disease are to use praziquantel (PZQ) chemotherapy to treat human and bovine hosts and to apply molluscide in areas of high snail concentration [6].

PZQ

kills the adult worm and the egg[8] with a cure rate of 85% [9]. Several issues contribute to the continue prevalence of this disease [6]: •

Lack of domestic water treatment facilities

•

Herding activities of water buffalos contacting infected water

•

Necessity of humans contacting lake water

•

Abundance of wetland areas for snail habitat

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Policy History and Assessment The Flood of 1998 In 1998, China experienced one of the worst floods ever in the history of the country. The impact has been devastating: about 5 million homes were destroyed; 223 million people displaced; and 1,320 killed [10]. The estimated direct economic cost was 166 billion RMB (US $20.2 billion) [10].

The 32-Characters Mandate After the disaster, the central government passed the “32-Characters Mandate” to address the flood disaster. (Note that written Chinese is constructed with characters.) It provided RMB 10 billion (US$ 1.2 billion) a year over five years to mitigate future flood risks [11]. It included the following policies [11]: •

Plant trees and limit logging;

•

Return some cultivated land to forestry;

•

Support local industries to provide relief for affected areas (i.e. affected by logging bans, etc.);

•

Relocate towns (from flood-prone areas to higher ground) and build new towns;

•

Return reclaimed farmland to lakes;

•

Prevent retention areas from being used for agricultural, commercial or residential purposes;

•

Reinforce embankments;

•

Improve river courses, e.g. by dredging.

The policies that have the most direct impacts on Poyang Lake are the “Relocate towns and build new towns”, the “Return reclaimed farmland to lakes”, and the “Reinforce embankments” policies [12]. This paper will focus on the first two policies since they have the most impact with respect to the lake area size and the movement of people. In the subsequent discussions, if the two policies are discussed simultaneously, one term will be used: the Return Lake/Resettlement (RLR) policy.

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Policy Motivation and Conditions The primary goal of the 32-Characters mandate as it applied in the Poyang Lake is to increase the flood storage capacity of the lake by asking people to abandon the reclaimed land and resettle to new towns. The conditions at the time were ideal to implement these policies. Politically and socially, the people expected the government to act on the disaster. Economically, the Chinese government, with the strong economic growth due to market reform in the past two decades, has the financial resources to implement the policies and resettle its people. More important is the lack of a technical solution dealing with the problem. The previous efforts of the local residents to build higher and stronger dikes are bandages to a deeper problem – the shrinking flood storage capacity of Poyang Lake due to land reclamation. Finally, the government decided to tackle the problem at the root and ask people to abandon the reclaimed lands.

The 32-Characters mandate reflects a changing attitude of the Chinese government toward nature. Since 1949, when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was founded, the Chinese government has been creating policies that allow its people to exert increasing pressure on the natural environment. These policies resulted in numerous projects that caused massive changes to the environment: many land-reclaiming projects caused the surface area of many lakes including Poyang Lake to shrink; the controversial Three Gorges Dam project is changing the hydrology in the Yangtze River region.

However, this belief has been changing. The increasing frequency of natural disasters and visible signs of environmental degradation are forcing the government to re-evaluate its policies.

Below are some examples of looming environmental crisis facing China: [13] •

9 of the 10 most polluted cities in the world are in China.

•

640 major cities face water shortages.

•

86% of China’s rivers exceeded local pollution standards in 1998.

In 2003, the government even acknowledged in its five-year strategic plan that it needs “an overall plan for harmonious development between man and nature…” One of its numerous missions is to “establish mechanisms which promote sustainable social development” [14]

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The statements of Wang Shuchengon, Minister of Water Resources of China, best exemplifies the change of attitude in China toward nature: “Resolving the relationship between humankind and nature is a precondition for the progress of human society…regulating the relationship between humankind and nature is the core issue of achieving sustainable development. Reducing losses caused by water disasters …is most crucial in realizing this objective. We are fully confident in pursuing this new line of thinking – though China still has a long way to go in flood control and disaster mitigation.” [15]

Policy Incentives and Human Behavior Ecology This section looks at how the policy should be designed using concepts of human behavior ecology for it to be effective. In order for the policy to work, people, specifically farmers, need to forgo their traditional livelihood and leave their farmland. The abandoned farmlands then act as additional reservoir capacity during high water periods so people downstream of the lake do not experience flooding. One can argue that the farmers benefit when they leave their farmlands since they no longer have to endure the flood damage. However, this analysis assumes that the total impact of the policy for the farmers is negative.

A unique characteristic in China is that the government legally owns all the land; therefore the government can force people to move. However, since this would create social unrest and create political instability, the government needed to use other tactics to reduce the local cost. Thus, this policy is a classic example of disbursed benefit and localized cost.

A common way to address this mismatch is to provide economic incentives to manipulate costs and benefits to individuals [16]. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese government decided to use this tactic to ensure the success of this policy implementation.

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The result has been impressive. From 1998 to 2003, the Jiangxi Provincial government invested over 3.532 billion RMB (US$ 427 million) in this region [17]. The cost includes the destruction of 234 embankments and dikes, the reinforcement of levees, and the resettlement of 221,000 households and 908,200 people [17]. Infrastructure-wise, 13 million m2 of area were created for new houses and 2.3 million m2 for other buildings. The lake was restored with 1,000 km2 of surface area and3.3 billion m3 of flood capacity created. The total cost for the 3-year project was US $427 million. [18].

The state subsidized over 15,000 RMB (US $1,800 )per household to encourage the resettlement and provided over 3,000 RMB ( US $360) in tax incentives [17]. For people who wished to continue farming, each was given one mu (0.067 hectares) of land [17]. Others were encouraged to change their farming practices to be more compatible in the floodplain environment. These practices are part of a framework of “wetland industries” developed by the Chinese government and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), an international non-government conservation agency [19]. The ‘wetland industries’ include aquaculture, animal husbandry, and ecotourism [19].

In fact, in 2002, the Jiangxi Provincial government was awarded a Good Practice citation in the UN-Habitat Best Practice category for the implementation of this policy [17]. In 2004, Ling Chengxing, the Vice Governor of Jiangxi Province was asked to present the accomplishment to the United Nation Public Administration Networking Unit (UNPAN) and proudly titled his presentation: “An Eternal Monument of Improving Living Environment.”

Sentiment from Local Residents Data from a survey collected by the author and colleagues from Jiangxi Normal University during summer 2004 was analyzed to assess the validity of the official data. The survey was part of the WWF-sponsored project called the Wetland Ambassadors Program that promotes wetland protection and surveys the local residents on their sentiments toward the environment, regulations, and the government. The group mainly targeted residents who lived in the vicinity of the Wucheng township, historically one of the most prosperous cities in the Poyang Lake region.

In the appendix is a report of the complete survey.

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Methods and Data Since many residents were illiterate, the surveys were conducted orally. The sampling data may be skewed toward men and toward people who are willing to speak their minds since many women and people in general did not want to participate. This may be out of fear that the data may be used against them or that it is not socially acceptable to express personal opinions. A total of 69 people responded, with 83% male. The majority (52%) were 30-50 years old.

The key question pertinent to this paper is the following: Do you support the Return Lake/Resettlement policy?

The options are: Yes, No, Do not care.

Below is a chart of their

responses by percentage: Support of Return Lake/Resettlement Policy

(blank) 4%

Do not care 12% Do not support 9%

Support 75%

Figure 6: Percentage of Survey Response toward RLR Policy

As expected, an overwhelming (75%) number of the respondents support the policy. However, there was still 9% of the respondents who opposed the policy. To find out the occupation types that opposed the policy, the same data is broken down by the occupation and is shown below:

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By Occupation and Support for Return Lake/Resettlement Policty 18 16 14

Frequency

12 (blank) Support Do not support Do not care

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

Figure 7: Survey Response Toward RLR Policy By Occupations

The graph shows that out of the different 10 occupations represented, the only occupations that have any portion opposed to the policy are ones that were directly affected by the policy: the farmers and the fishermen.

Another question in the survey was also analyzed: have you observed occurrence of land reclamation? The options again are: Yes, No, Not Sure.

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Lake Reclamation Occurrence

(blank) 1%

Not sure Yes 3% 9%

No 87%

Figure 8: Percentage of Lake Reclamation Occurrence This question provides insights to the willingness of people to comply with the policy.

Although an overwhelming 87% did not observe occurrence of lake reclamation, there are still 9% who did. The data shows farmers and government officials, who tend to know more about land usage, are among those who observed lake reclamation occurrences.

Discussion of Policy Incentives Overall, the policy has been successful from the implementation perspective because it addressed the dispersed benefit and localized cost issues by providing economic incentives to the local residents. However, there seem to be underlying forces that are causing dissent among the residents, some of whom have observed some form of land reclamation. To better understand these forces, a long-term perspective is needed. This requirement leads to the next section: system thinking modeling approach.

System Thinking Model The main purpose for this section is to look at the long-term sustainability of the Returning Reclaimed Lake and the Resettling to New Town policies. As mentioned in a previous section, these policies were successful, at least for the short-term. The challenge is to assess whether they

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will be successful in the long-run. Thus, a deeper understanding of the relationship between three key areas of interest - environment, regional development, and public health – will be needed.

The research will suggest relationships among these three areas and will quantify these assumptions from existing data. Insights will be gained from learning about the system dynamics of these relationships. However, the modeling goal is not to replicate the actual system or predict the future precisely. Rather, it is hoped that this model can start an interdisciplinary dialogue with policy makers and experts from these three areas.

Causal Loop Diagram The causal loop diagram is a tool often used to qualitatively model system dynamics. In the diagram, the positive sign depicts a relationship that has the same direction and the negative sign depicts a relationship that has opposite affects. A balancing (or negative) loop is a loop that has an odd number of negative relationships whereas a reinforcing (or positive) loop is one that has zero or an even number of negative relationships [20].

Environmental variables are the area of the lake and the number of migratory birds. Regional economy variables include total income, ecotourism income, and non lake-contact income (other income that is not associated with contacting infected water). One public health variable is the schistosomiasis infection rate. Below is a causal loop diagram that qualitatively describes the relationships between these variables.

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Ecotourism Income

+

+ + Total Income +

+ Migratory Birds

R1 Ecotoursim

+

Farming Income +

Lake Area

-

Non LakeContact Income

-

B1 Traditional Livelihood

-

Land Reclamation

Productivity

-

Schisto Infection Rate +

B2 Schisto-productivity

Figure 9: Causal Loop Diagram

The first balancing loop, the traditional livelihood loop (B1), describes that as total income increases, there will be less desire to do land reclamation which will lead to a smaller farming income contribution to total income. The second loop, the ecotourism loop (R1), is a reinforcing loop. As total income increases, there will be less desire to do land reclamation which will lead to more lake area. More lake area will result in attracting more migratory birds. This in turns leads to more ecotourism income which contributes to more total income. The third loop, the schisto-productivity loop (B2), is a balancing loop. As total income increases, there is less desire to reclaim lands which leads to larger lake area. However, an increase in lake area will result in higher infection rate since there is more wetland habitat for the secondary snail host. An increase in infection rate will result in lower economic productivity which will lead to lower income.

The leverage component in the system is the non lake-contact income. This is because not only does it contribute to the total income (and leads to less desire to land reclamation), but it also leads to less schistosomiasis infection rate since people do not have to contact infected water to

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generate income. In fact, one can think of the ecotourism income as a form of non lake-contact income. It has an additional benefit compared to other general non lake-contact income since it also aligns economic incentives with conserving the environment.

STELLA Model Whereas a causal loop is used qualitatively to describe the system dynamics, a STELLA model is used quantitatively to describe these forces. Below is a table illustrating several symbols used in the model, their descriptions and associated grammar metaphor [21]:

Description

Symbol

Grammar Metaphor

Stock

Noun

Flow

Verb

Converter

Adverb

Connectors

Conjunction

Table 1: Symbols used in STELLA and Associated Grammar Metaphor

A stock can be thought of as a warehouse where things are stored. A flow is used to control what goes into the warehouse and what comes out. A converter is used to transform things from one form to another. Usually a mathematical formula or a graphical relationship can be used within a converter. A connector is used to relate any of the three objects above with each other.

System Behavior Time Period This model runs from 1992 to 2012 and seeks to answer the following questions: •

Is the current policy sustainable?

•

If not sustainable, what should be changed to make the policy sustainable?

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•

Which intervention point – lower bound income level, supporting ecotourism policy, or non lake-contacting income– has the greatest positive impact on the regional economy, environment, and public health?

•

How does changing the socioeconomic status of the people or changing the lake environment impact the infection rate of schistosomiasis?

Model Overview Below is a walk-through explanation of the model with different objects highlighted for clarification.

In the figure above, the natural lake area and reclaimed land from lake area are connected by the land reclaiming and lake restoring flows. Note that the lake restoring flow is controlled by the returning lake policy converter.

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In the Public Health section, the components highlighted illustrate schistosomiasis transmission dynamics in an endemic area. Infected rate controls the flow of the uninfected people in the endemic area to the infected; cure rate controls the flow of the infected recovering back to the uninfected. The prevalence converter is used to calculate the percentage of the infected in the endemic population. As mentioned previously, the infection rate is proportional to natural lake area and is inversely proportional to non-lake contacting income.

The highlighted components illustrate people moving from the endemic area to the non-endemic area through the resettlement policy converter. The reverse resettlement flow allows the movement of the people back to the endemic area.

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In the Regional Economy section, the highlighted components illustrated the total productivity potential in the region, including the infected and non infected people in the endemic area and people in the non-endemic areas. Productivity potential of the infected will be lower than that of the healthy since the infected are burdened with schistosomiasis.

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Continuing with the Regional Economy Section, the highlighted components illustrate the theoretical and the actual income in the economy. The “total potential income per person” is an aggregate of all the income sources. From the total potential income, the actual income is determined based on productivity. Non lake-contacting income is also calculated by subtracting “farming income from reclaimed land” from total income.

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The highlighted components illustrate the income from ecotourism which allows the economic incentives to align with conservation. Note that there is no strong connection between number of rare birds and lake area and between number of rare birds and ecotourism income.

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The last two remaining converters, “actual income per person” and “lower bound income that triggers land reclamation and re-resettlement”, illustrates a trigger which reverses the effects of the returning lake and resettlement policies if people's economic expectations are not met.

Below is the diagram of the complete Poyang Lake Policy model in STELLA:

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Figure 10: Poyang Lake Policy Stella Model

Key Assumptions Several key assumptions are used in the model and are organized by the three areas of interest below. Note that the monetary value used in this model is in Ren Min Bi (RMB), the currency used in China.

Environment 1. The lake area was increased from 4,000km2 to 5,000km2 in 3 years from the beginning of 1999 to the beginning of 2002 [17]. Thus, the average lake restoring rate is 333 km2 per year during these three years.

2. The land can be reclaimed if the actual income is lower than expected. If land is reclaimed, the annual reclaiming rate is assumed to be 100 km2.

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Regional Economy 1. The farming income from reclaimed land is proportional to the land reclaiming area. The ratio can be adjusted through the “farming income per km of reclaimed land” converter.

2. The productivity potential of healthy people in the endemic areas, infected people in the endemic areas, and people in the non-endemic area are 100%, 75%, 100%, respectively.

3. It is assumed that incomes from ecotourism and from other sources do not require contacting infected lake water while income from reclaimed land does. Thus, the non lake-contacting income is the difference of total income subtracted from the farming income from reclaimed land.

4. The ecotourism income and other non-lake contacting income can be adjusted through the “ecotourism income” and “non lake contacting income” converters, respectively.

Public Health 1. The cure rate for using praziquantel to treat schistosomiasis is 85% [9], and the treatment lasts for one to two days [22]. It is assumed that a recovered patient will not contact the infected water for a total of 6 days. Therefore, the cure rate has duration of one week annually. Furthermore, it is assumed that everyone takes the drug simultaneously which will result in saw-tooth patterns.

2. There are 3 million people in the endemic area. This is derived from the 470,000 people resettled to non endemic area during 1999 to end of 2001 [17] and 2.5 million people who are still threatened as of the end of 2002 [6].

3. The prevalence rate is 0.20 [9]. This implies that 80% of the 3 million people in the endemic area are uninfected and the remaining 20% are infected.

4. People who resettle to the non-endemic area will be resettling at a rate of 470,000/3 or 157,000 a year.

5. People can return back to the endemic area to reclaim land if the actual income is lower than expected. If people are returning, then they will return by a rate of 10,000 persons annually. Previous calculations assumed that 157,000 people have moved out, giving up 333 km2 of reclaimed land a year during the policy implementation; this implied a ratio of 470 persons per km2 of reclaimed land. The previous assumption stated that that 100

- 25 -

km2 of land will be re-reclaimed if people do decide to return; this implies an annual rate of 47,000 persons during the reverse resettling flow.

6. Infection rate will be directly proportional to the lake area since the lake area acts a proxy for the area of the wetlands which are breeding grounds for snails, the secondary host of schistosomiasis. In addition, the infection rate will be inversely proportional to the non lake-contacting income. It will act as a proxy of the infection rate of the endemic society rather than the infection rate of an individual. At an individual level, the infection rate of schistosomiasis remains unchanged – it can still penetrate the skin of an individual as fast as the person contacts the infected water.

On a macro-level, however, the fewer people

contacting the water, the lower the overall infection rate. The constant in the equation is calibrated by setting the prevalence level to be 0.20 at the beginning of the simulation.

The calibration constant for this model is found to be 0.005. The formula is shown below: InfectionRate =

CalibrationConst * LakeArea nonLakeContactingIncome

Equation 1: Socioeconomic and Environment Infection Rate

The relative small constant implies that lake area will play relatively minor role compared to the non lake-contacting income.

The Appendix provides the all equations used in the STELLA model.

Model Control Panel Below is the interface view of the control panel for the model:

- 26 -

On the upper middle of the panel is the Story Telling button. Once pressed, it walks through the model for the user similar to the Model Walk-through section.

On the left side of the panel are

three policy switches representing the three policy converters: returning lake policy, resettlement policy, and supporting ecotourism policy. Below them are the two sliders that present the “ecotourism income” and “the farming income per km2 of reclaimed land” converters. To the left of these sliders are the knobs that corresponds the two remaining converters: “other non lake-contacting income” and the “lower bound income triggering land reclamation reverse resettlement”. The switches have only on/off capability while the knobs and the sliders can adjust values within given ranges.

Model Results The model was run under three different scenarios: 1. without the ecotourism policy; 2. with the ecotourism policy; 3. with the ecotourism policy and with higher local resident expectations. All cases, unless specified, have the following starting values: •

Returning lake policy switch is turned on

•

Resettlement policy switch is turned on

•

Ecotourism income is 600 RMB

•

Farming income per km2 of reclaimed land is 2.0 RMB

- 27 -

•

Lower bound income that triggers land reclamation and resettlement is 800 RMB.

•

Other non lake-contacting income is 500 RMB

In each of the model runs, the following key indicators from the three areas will be displayed: Environment •

Natural lake area

•

Reclaimed land from lake area

•

Land reclaiming

Regional Economy •

Farming income from reclaimed land per person

•

Ecotourism income per person

•

Actual income per person

•

Productivity potential

Public Health •

Endemic infected

•

Endemic uninfected

•

Non-endemic

•

Prevalence

Without Ecotourism Scenario In this default scenario, the lake area is restored from 4,000 km2 to 5,000 km2. The results are shown in the three graphs below: Environment

- 28 -

1: Natural Lake Area 1: 2: 3:

2: Reclaimed Land from Lake Area 2

5000 1000 100

2

1

3: land reclaiming 3

1

1: 2: 3:

4500 500 50

2 1: 2: 3:

4000 0 0

1 1992.00

3

1 1997.00

2

3

3

2002.00

Page 1

2007.00

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Environment

Regional Economy 1: farming income from rec‌ 2: ecotourism income pers‌ 3: actual income per person 1: 2: 3: 4:

1

2000 1 3000 1

4: productivity potential

1

3 3

1: 2: 3: 4:

1000 0 1500 1

2

4

4

4

4 2

2

2

3

3 1 1: 2: 3: 4:

0 -1 0 1 1992.00

1 2002.00

1997.00

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Public Health

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2007.00

2012.00

1:09 AM Mon, Apr 11, 2005

1: endemic infected 1: 2: 3: 4:

600000 2500000 500000 0

2: endemic uninfected

3: non endemic

4: prevalence

2

2

3

1: 2: 3: 4:

4

550000 2200000 250000 0

4 1

4

500000 1900000 0 0

1

4 1

1: 2: 3: 4:

3

2 1

2

3

3 1992.00

1997.00

2002.00

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Public Health

During 1999 to 2002, the farmers lose all of their farming income from reclaimed land, and they only have about 500 RMB from other income sources. Because of productivity loss due to schistosomiasis infection, the actual income will be less than 500 RMB. Since the expectation of the local residents is 800 RMB, they will resettle and reclaim the lake to increase their income.

The previous environment graph shows that there was some land reclaiming between 2003 and 2005 that resulted in a smaller lake area. The regional economy graph shows that the reclaiming of the land increases the actual income from less than 500 RMB to greater than 800 RMB by year 2005.

Due to the use of praziquantel (PZQ) during the first 2 weeks of the year and re-infections, many indicators in the public health graph have jagged shapes. As people recovered with use of PZQ, they get re-infected by contact with the lake water again. The prevalence increases slightly during the resettlement from 1999 to 2003 because there were more healthy people leaving the endemic area.

- 30 -

With Ecotourism Scenario In this scenario, the ecotourism policy switch is activated with the default ecotourism income per person. The results are shown in the three graphs below: Environment 1: Natural Lake Area 1: 2: 3:

5000 1000 1

1: 2: 3:

4500 500 0

1: 2: 3:

4000 0 -1

2: Reclaimed Land f rom Lake Area 2

2

3: land reclaiming

1

3

1

3

1 1992.00

3

3

2

1 1997.00

2

2002.00

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2007.00

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Weeks Env ironment

Regional Economy 1: f arming income f rom reclaim‌ 2: ecotourism income per person 1: 2: 3: 4:

1

2000 600 3000 1

3: actual income per person

1

4: productiv ity potential

2

2

3 4

3

1: 2: 3: 4:

1000 300 1500 1

4 3

3

4 1: 2: 3: 4:

0 0 0 1

4

2 1992.00

2 1997.00

1 2002.00

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Weeks Regional Economy

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1 2007.00

2012.00 1:58 AM Mon, Apr 11, 2005

1: endemic infected 1: 2: 3: 4:

600000 2500000 500000 0

2: endemic uninfected

4: prevalence

2

2

3 1

1: 2: 3: 4:

3: non endemic

1

3

1

450000 2200000 250000 0

2 4 4 4 2

1: 2: 3: 4:

1

3

300000 1900000 0 0

4

3 1992.00

1997.00

2002.00

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Public Health

The result from this single policy change is striking. First, despite losing farming income from reclaimed land, there is no land reclamation after 2002. This is because the actual income is greater than the expected income of 800 at around 1,000 RMB. The difference between the first scenario and this scenario is that the loss of the farming income from reclaimed land is offset by the ecotourism income.

Even though ecotourism income does not offset the loss completely, it

did manage to increase enough to beat the expectation.

Another advantage of supporting ecotourism income is a decrease in infected people and a decrease in prevalence, as shown in the public health graph. This is because the infection rate is inversely proportional to the non lake-contacting income which ecotourism income is a part of.

As ecotourism income increases, the infection rate decreases. This improvement in public health is reflected in the regional economy graph, with productivity potential steadily increasing.

With Ecotourism But Higher Expectation Scenario In this scenario, not only the ecotourism policy is activated, but the lower bound income triggers land reclamation and resettlement is also increase from 800 RMB to 1,300 RMB. The results are shown in the three graphs below:

- 32 -

Environment 1: Natural Lake Area

2: Reclaimed Land f rom Lake Area

5000 1000 100

1: 2: 3:

2

2

3: land reclaiming

1

1

1: 2: 3:

4500 500 50

1: 2: 3:

4000 0 0

2 2 1 1992.00

3

1 1997.00

3

3

3

2002.00

Page 1

2007.00

2012.00

2:13 AM Mon, Apr 11, 2005

Weeks Env ironment

Regional Economy 1: f arming income f rom recl‌ 2: ecotourism income per pe‌ 3: actual income per person 2000 600 3000 1

1: 2: 3: 4:

1

1

4: productiv ity potential

2

2

3 4

3

1000 300 1500 1

1: 2: 3: 4:

3

4

3

4 1

0 0 0 1

1: 2: 3: 4:

4

2 1992.00

1 2002.00

2 1997.00

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Weeks Regional Economy

Public Health

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2007.00

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2:13 AM Mon, Apr 11, 2005

1: endemic inf ected 1: 2: 3: 4:

2: endemic uninf ected

600000 2550000 500000 0

3: non endemic

4: prev alence

2

2 1

1

1

3

3 2

1: 2: 3: 4:

450000 2250000 250000 0

4 4 2

4

1

3 1: 2: 3: 4:

300000 1950000 0 0

4

3 1992.00

1997.00

2002.00

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Public Health

In this scenario, the environment graph shows that there is some land reclamation, similar to the graph in the first scenario where there is no ecotourism policy. The income loss offset by the ecotourism income was not enough compared to the first scenario because the income expectation also increased. On the other hand, the public health indicator is similar to the second scenario where the prevalence is lowered and productivity is increased. This is because the increase in non lake-contacting income has greater impact in decreasing the infection rate than the increase in lake area has in increasing the infection rate.

Sensitivity Analysis The following variables and associated ranges are used to for sensitivity analysis: •

Other non lake-contacting income: from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments. (100; 1075; 2050; 3025; 4000)

•

Ecotourism income: from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments. (100; 1075; 2050; 3025; 4000)

•

Farming income per km2 per person: from 0 to 3 in 5 equal increments (0; 0.75; 1.50; 2.25; 3)

- 34 -

•

Lower bound that triggers policies reversal: from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments. (100; 1075; 2050; 3025; 4000)

The following indicators are used to monitor the three areas of interest: •

Actual Income for Regional Economy

•

Prevalence for Public Health

•

Natural Lake area for Environment

Three levels of sensitivity are determined based on the variability of the indicators based on the changing inputs: very sensitive; sensitive; not sensitive. Very sensitive is defined as significant changes occurring through out all of the testing period; sensitive is defined as changes occurring in some sections of the period; not sensitive is defined as very little changes occurring during the period. The Appendix contains the details of the sensitivity analysis. Below is a table summarizes the result of the sensitivity analysis:

Indicators\Areas

Regional Economy

Environment

Public Health

Other non lake-contacting income Ecotourism income Farming income per km2 per person Lower bound that triggers policies reversal

Very sensitive

Sensitive

Sensitive

Very sensitive Very sensitive

Sensitive Sensitive

Sensitive Not sensitive

Sensitive

Sensitive

Not sensitive

Table 2: Sensitivity Testing Summary

The table shows that the farming income is not sensitive to public health. This is because the farming income does not contribute to the non-lake contacting income which affects the infection rate. The table also shows that the lower bound that triggers policy reversal also does not affect public health very much. This is because as people go back to reclaim the land, they generate farming income rather than non-lake contacting income which affects the infection rate.

Model Summary The first scenario showed that there might be some form of land reclamation if the current policy is implemented without more support for alternative livelihood. The second scenario showed that - 35 -

ecotourism income can be very promising because not only does it align economic incentives with conservation, but it also provides a form of non lake-contacting income that will result in decreased infection, which will result in higher productivity. However, the third scenario showed that the benefit of ecotourism will be realized only if the expectations of the residents are managed properly.

Regional economy and environment are sensitive to non-contacting lake income, ecotourism income, farming income per km2 per person, and the lower bound that triggers policy reversal.

Public health is sensitive to the first two factors, but not the remaining two factors.

Recommendation and Conclusions Overall Assessment In the short term, the two policies on Poyang Lake were successfully implemented because the government addressed the localized cost and distributed benefit issue. In the long-term, these policies may need other supporting policies such as an ecotourism policy to prevent policy regression.

In fact, this analysis shows another consideration for the non-governmental

agencies which are helping the local government to develop wetland industries like including aquaculture, animal husbandry and ecotourism [19]. Out these three activities, ecotourism and perhaps animal husbandry may be preferred over aquaculture since they have less lake-contacting opportunities, which will help decrease the schistosomiasis infection rate. From a conservation perspective, ecotourism is favored over animal husbandry because it also aligns conservation with economic livelihood. However, setting up ecotourism in this region would not be a simple task and would require substantial long-term government commitment and local community support. For example, relevant conservation knowledge and language fluency are critical to a successful ecotourism industry. Regardless, in order to maintain the benefit of the Return Lake/Resettlement policies, the government will need to manage the expectations of the local residents.

- 36 -

Recommendations Several recommendations organized by the three areas are proposed below:

Regional Economy •

The government will need to continue to find innovative non lake-contacting types of alternative livelihoods. Ecotourism is proposed as one way and has also a secondary benefit in that it aligns economic benefit with conservation.

•

The government will need to manage the expectation of the residents. Otherwise, the benefit of these policies will be reduced

Environment •

The land abandoned should be managed and be converted as part of the natural reserve.

This also will prevent future reclamation by local residents. In fact, the government should hire local farmers to manage these abandoned lands as a form of ecotourism income.

•

This region plays a critical role in supporting a diversity of wildlife. The government should continue to provide conservation education and to get local residents involved with conservation efforts.

Public Health •

The government should continue to use praziquantel to control schistosomiasis. As more economic opportunities are available without contacting the infested lake water, less people should be infected with schistosomiasis. Unless other hosts such as water buffalo are also kept from contacting the water, however, schistosomiasis will always be present in these waters.

Areas for Additional Model Consideration This model is a starting point for this fascinating and complex system. Other areas for future model considerations are listed below: •

Explore impact of non lake-contacting income that negatively affects the environment.

One example can be the current lake dredging activities that generate millions to the economy but are causing a decline in fishery habitat.

- 37 -

•

Explore the delayed effect of an ecotourism policy. The current model suggests that once the government supports ecotourism, the increase in income is immediate. this is not always true.

However,

The marketing effort to the tourists, especially international

visitors, can have a significant delaying effect. •

Explore the validity of the small constant calibration factor which implied a small lake area impact compared to the non lake-contacting income.

•

Explore the effect of population increases.

Below is the population growth trend of the eleven counties surrounding Poyang Lake:

Population Trend of 11 Counties Surrounding Poyang Lake 3%

7,000,000

2%

6,600,000 6,400,000

2%

6,200,000

1%

6,000,000

Growth Rate

Population

6,800,000

1%

5,800,000 5,600,000

0% Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Year Population

Growth Rate

Figure 11: Population Trend of 11 Counties Surrounding Poyang Lake. Source: [5]

The graph shows that the population is still growing in this region, and may place additional pressure on this fragile system.

Areas for Additional Survey Consideration For a trend perspective, the survey used in this research should be conducted every two years to monitor the changes in response.

If there is a decrease in support for the policies, the

government should be aware that the residents are becoming more dissatisfied and probably will start to reclaim some land. If that is the case, the government will need to proactively provide more economic support to find alternative livelihoods and to better manage resident

- 38 -

expectations. From a data analysis perspective, the survey should be conducted in not just one town in Poyang Lake, but other towns as well. This will provide more data points with a more diverse respondent base.

Areas for Other Future Research Ecotourism Ecotourism is defined according to the International Ecotourism Society as “responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and sustains the well being of local people. [23]” In this research, this option is recommended over other options.

However, more research is

needed is needed in order for the government to act upon this recommendation. Below are some issues that should be addressed: •

Explore the assumption that ecotourism is a type of non lake-contacting activity.

•

Explore the feasibility of ecotourism in this region.

Water Quality Another area for concern is the steady decrease of water quality in this region. Below is the graph of the surface water quality trend in this area:

Grade Percentage

Poyang Lake Surface Water Quality Trend 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year

Figure 12 Poyang Lake Surface Water Quality Trend.

- 39 -

Source: [24]

Grade III: Inferior-grade drinking water Grade II: Medium-grade drinking water Grade I: Spring Water

The graph shows that although the overall water quality is still within drinking water standards, the trend shows a steady decline. After 1993, Grade III Inferior-Grade water has appeared and has grown in percentage. After 1996, Grade I Spring Water quality did not appear anymore in the sampling data. Increased wastewater discharge, pesticide and fertilizer usage in Jiangxi Province have contributed to the declining water quality [24]. Thus, more research can be conducted to provide solutions to this growing problem.

Techniques for Future Research Graphical Information System Research This research proposed many underlying processes in the area of environment, regional economy, and public health. To truly assess the validity of these processes, physical manifestations of these three areas should be monitored. Geographical Information System (GIS), a growing technology that uses remote sensing and satellite images to analyze changes in landscape, should be used to further validate these assumptions. For example, land use patterns, schistosomiasis infection areas, and bird wintering sites all have spatial characteristics that are useful in better understand the underlying forces in this system.

Conclusion This has been extensive and rewarding research, first using a qualitative approach to assess the policy impacts, and later using a quantitative approach to look at long term effects of the Return Lake/Resettlement policies. These policies illustrate the changing attitude of the Chinese government from controlling nature to harmonizing with nature for sustainable development.

I

am grateful that I was able to leverage the expertise of many professors and students from several disciplines and from different schools. Only a broad-based school such as University of Michigan can provide such a fertile ground for interdisciplinary research. I hope that this research will provide a starting point for the newly established Poyang Lake Center Key Lab and that many will continue to do research about this fascinating, fragile, and fun place.

- 40 -

Appendix Survey Questionnaires and Results Jiangxi Normal University Wucheng Survey Data Analysis Report Date: September 20, 2004 By: Howard Lin The survey was conducted for the 2004 World Wildlife Foundation Wetland Ambassador project with the goals of getting an assessment of the sentiments of the local residents in the Poyang Lake area. The survey was designed by the Wucheng Group of the Jiangxi Normal University Lan Tian Student Group and conducted from July 6th to July 13th, 2004. The data may support non-governmental groups such as the WWF to help the government to recommend educational and regulatory policies.

69 individual survey responses were collected. These data do not necessarily reflect the sample population of the 16,000 people in the Wucheng Township since there is an upward bias of people who were afraid of sharing their opinion to the public. Because in most cases, the surveys were conducted orally (many residents are illiterate), error will be introduced by misinterpretation from the interviewer. Additional errors may be introduced during the data entry from paper into electronic form.

The quality of data is relatively good. Out of 69 survey forms collected, only a few have blank answers. Since the incompleteness is minor, all the data is analyzed with empty answers showing as “blank.”

Below are the highlights of the analysis:

Demographics data: • • • • • •

Respondents were mainly male (83%).

Majority were between 30-50 years old (52%).

They typically have an elementary middle school education level (70%).

Most common number of household members is four.

Annual household income is often over RMB 10,000.

“Other”, “Fishery”, and “Outside Wage” are the major source of income.

Opinions on the environment: • • •

Overwhelming majority (77%) felt that both the variety and number of aquatic birds have increased.

59% felt that both the variety and number of fish and shrimp are decreasing.

43% felt that the wetland grass is decreasing while 38% did not notice any change.

- 41 -

• • • •

About an equal portion felt that the environment have changed for worse (36%), No change (33%), and change for better (25%).

Close to half (49%) felt that the lake quality have not changed much while 33% felt it became worse.

77% were not familiar with the term biodiversity.

Close to half (49%) felt that biodiversity was damaged severely while 13% felt it was slightly damaged.

Opinions on the interaction between human and environment: • • • • • •

75% felt that netting is the main method to capture fish in this area.

Over 56% felt that use of pesticide and fertilizer will have no negative impact on water quality.

Majority (60%) of the respondents felt that 80% or greater of local residents are infected with schistosomiasis.

An overwhelming majority (87%) did not feel that lake-filling activities are occurring.

Majority (65%) felt that the sand-extraction activities will have negative impacts on the environment.

Over half of the people (56%) felt that the Xiao Bai Yang trees, a species of plant that is promoted by the government for commercial development, do not impact the environment.

Opinions on government: • •

Overwhelming majority (75%) supported the returning the lake, breaking the dike and the resettlement policy.

Close to half (43%) felt that government officials are doing a good job.

Survey Designer •

Chan Liang

Interviewers: • • • • • • • • • •

Chen Shan Chan Liang Gu Zhong Yu Ke Chun Hua Lv Jian Xing Pan Feng Peng Yan Lin Wang Gang Wang Chen Hao Yi Juan

Survey Data Analyzer •

Howard Lin

- 42 -

By Occupation and Gender The graph below analyzes the respondents by their occupation and gender.

By Occupation and Gender 18 16 14

Frequency

12 10

Male Female

8 6 4 2

Retired

Student

Livestock breeding

Unemployed

Merchant

Teacher

Labourer

(blank)

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

Occupation

The graphs shows that majority of respondents are male (83%) and the top two types of occupation are farmers and fishermen. 9% of the data is blank. This graph shows that despite our best effort to be gender-neutral, many women did not want to participate in the survey.

This is perhaps shows that this is still a relatively male-dominated community where the males make decisions while the females do not show their opinions.

By Age and Gender Graph below analyzes the respondents by their age and gender.

- 43 -

By Age and Gender

(blank)

71+

60-70

51-60 Age

Male Female 41-50

31-40

21-30

20 or younger

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Frequency

This graph is similar to a population pyramid. It shows that the majority of the respondents, both male and female is between the age of 31-40. This trend is similar to the population of China as a whole. Below is population pyramid for China, in 2000.

- 44 -

By Educational Level and Gender The graph below analyzes the respondents by their educational level and gender:

By Education Level and Gender

Junior College or Above

High School

Male Female

Middle School

Elementary

(blank)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

This graph shows that the majority of the respondents have only middle school or elementary education. Furthermore, it also shows an alarming, but expected pattern – majority of females are not educated.

- 45 -

By Household Member and Income Level The graph below analyzes the respondents by the number in their household and income level:

By Household Member and Income Level 25

20 Annual Income (RMB): 10000+ 7001-10000 5001-7000 3001-5000 1000-3000 1000 and below

Frequency

15

10

5

0 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

11

12

13

14

15

18

Nbr of Members in Household

This graphs shows that four is the most frequent number in the distribution for household membership. Furthermore, the income level of 10,000 RMB or greater is very common across the distribution. Note that since this number is not audited, its validity will have a upward bias.

- 46 -

By Sources of Income The chart below breaks down responses by the source of income. Note that for this question, a respondent can choose more than one source of income.

Source(s) of Income

Farming 15% Others 29%

Local Wage 5% Business 9%

Outside Wage 18%

Fishery 24%

The pie chart shows that 29% of respondents have “Other� sources of income. The second most common source of income is fishery at 24%. This is not surprising considering that the team spent one whole day interviewing fishermen. One thing that is surprising is the percentage of outside wage as sources of income, showing that local residents are finding jobs outside of the township.

- 47 -

By Occupation and Trends on Aquatic Birds The graph below analyzes the response by occupation and the respondent’s feeling about trends on aquatic birds:

By Occupation and Trends of Aquatic Bird 18 16 14 12

Changes in Aquatic Birds: Do not notice Variety decreasing but number increasing Variety increasing but number decreasing Both variety and number increasing

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

Occupation

The graph shows that an overwhelming majority (77%) of the respondents across all occupations feel that both the variety and the number of aquatic birds are increasing. This is truly a very encouraging sign for all people involved in conservation biology.

- 48 -

By Occupation and Trends in Fishery and Shrimp The graph below analyzes the response by the occupation and the respondent’s feeling about trends in fishery and shrimp:

By Occupation and Trends in Fish and Shrimp 18 16 14 Changes in Fish and Shrimp:

12

Do not notice Both variety and number decreasing Variety decreasing but number increasing Variety increasing but number decreasing Both variety and number increasing

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

Occupation

The graph shows that a majority (59%) of the respondents across all occupation feel that both the variety and the number of fish and shrimp are decreasing. This is a disturbing sign for the local economy that depends heavily on fishing for income and food.

- 49 -

By Trends in Wetland Grass The chart below shows the respondents feeling about trends in wetland grass:

Trends on Wetland grass

(blank) 0%

Increasing 19%

Do not notice 38%

No change 0%

Decreasing 43%

The graph shows that a plurality (43%) of the respondents feel that the wetland grass is decreasing while 19% feel that it is increasing. This ambiguous result reflects the lack of clear understanding of how to assess the wetland grassland.

- 50 -

By Trends on the Environment The chart below shows the respondents’ feelings about trends in the environment:

Trends on the Environment

Do not notice 6%

Change for better 25%

No change 33%

Change for worse 36%

The graph shows that people are divided on how the environment is changing with about an equal portion choosing change for better, change for worse and no change. Out of the respondents who felt that the environment is changing for the worse, many cited sand digging as a major cause of environmental degradation.

- 51 -

By Fishing Techniques The chart below shows the respondents’ understanding about the common fishing techniques used in this region. Note that more than one technique can be selected.

Fishing Techniques

Other 6%

Electrifying 18% Poisoning 1%

Netting 75%

The graph shows that the main technique to capture fish is through netting (75%) while the distant second is electrifying.

- 52 -

By Lake Quality The chart below shows the respondents’ feeling’ about the quality of the Poyang Lake.

Lake Quality

Not sure 6%

(blank) 4%

Become better 12%

Become worse 33% No change 45%

The graph shows that a plurality (49%) of the respondents felt that the lake quality has not changed much while 33% felt that it became worse. 12% felt it become better and 6% are not sure.

- 53 -

By Water Quality The chart below shows the respondents’ feelings about how the water quality of the Poyang Lake will be degraded by pesticide and fertilizer usage.

Water Quality Degraded by Pesticide/Fertilizer

Not sure 4%

Definitely 20%

Maybe 20%

No 56%

The graph shows that a majority (56%) of the respondents felt there is no impact while 20% felt that it may have a negative impact. Only 20% felt that fertilizer/pesticide usage will definitely have a negative impact. Indeed, this shows that there is a lack of understanding of the negative consequences of using pesticides and fertilizer. This may be a point of focus for environmental groups that may want to educate residents on the facts of the usage of chemicals.

- 54 -

By Education Level and Biodiversity Familiarity The chart below analyzes by the education level of respondents and their familiarity with biodiversity.

By Education and Biodiversity Familiarity 30

25

20

Yes No

15

10

5

0 (blank)

Elementary

Middle School

High School

Junior College or Above

Education

The graph shows that the majority (77%) of the respondents are not familiar with biodiversity regardless of their education level. This again can be the focus of environmental groups to promote changes in education that help explain the term and its importance.

- 55 -

By Damages to Biodiversity The chart below analyze by the respondents’ feelings on damages to biodiversity.

Damages to Biodiversity

Do not know 13%

(blank) 0%

No damage 25%

Severly 49%

Slightly 13%

The graph shows that majority of the respondents feel that biodiversity has been damaged while only a quarter felt there is not damage to biodiversity.

- 56 -

By Schistosomiasis Infection Rate The chart below analyzes the respondents’ feelings about the infection rate of schistosomiasis within the local population.

Schistosomaisis Infection Rate

30% or below 13%

30-50% 7%

80% or greater 60%

60-80% 20%

The graph shows that the majority (60%) of the respondents felt that 80% or greater of local residents have schistosomiasis. This result is expected since the Wucheng Township has one of the highest infection rates in the region because the majority of the population needs to contact the water to make a living.

- 57 -

By Lake Reclamation Occurrence The chart below analyzes the respondents’ opinion on the tendency of lake reclamation in this region.

Lake Reclamation Occurrence

(blank) 1%

Not sure 3%

Yes 9%

No 87%

The graph shows that the overall whelming majority (87%) of the respondents do not feel that the lake reclamation has occurred.

- 58 -

By Occupation and Support for Return Lake/Resettlement Policies The chart below breaks down by occupation and support for Return Lake/Resettlement policies.

By Occupation and Support for Return Lake/Migration Policty 18 16 14 12 (blank) Support Do not support Do not care

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

As expected, all government officials support its policies. While across the occupation types, the majority (75%) do support the policy, there are noticeable occupations that do not support it – mainly the farmers and fishermen. This is expected because they are directly and negatively impacted by the policy.

- 59 -

By Occupation and Satisfaction with Government Officials The chart below breaks down by occupation and satisfaction with government officials

By Occupation and By Satisfaction with Government Officials 18 16 14 12 Average Satisfied (blank) Not Satified

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

This graph shows that that the plurality (43%) felt that government officials are doing an average job while 30% felt that they are doing a good job. Although the Not Satisfied people cut across all occupation types, it is interesting to note that some government officials are not satisfied with their own organization.

- 60 -

By Occupation and Negative Impacts of Sand Extraction on Environment The chart below breaks down by occupation and sand extraction on environment.

By Occupation and Negative Sand Digging Impact 18 16 14 12 (blank) Yes Not sure No

10 8 6 4 2

(blank)

Unemployed

Teacher

Student

Retired

Merchant

Livestock breeding

Labourer

Government Official

Fisherman

Farmer

0

The graph shows that the majority (65%) felt that sand extracting will negatively impact the environment. It is interesting to note that out of the fifteen fishermen, six (or 40%) do not feel that sand extracting will damage the environment. Again, this may be an area for education effort by an environmental group. Many respondents commented that in places where sand extraction took place, fish disappeared.

- 61 -

By Negative Impact of Xiao Bai Yang Tree on Ecology The chart below analyzes the respondents’ opinion on the negative impact of Xiao Bai Yang tree on ecology

Negative Impact of Xiao Bai Yang Tree on Ecology

Yes 25%

(blank) 0%

No 56% Not sure 19%

This graph shows that the majority does not feel that Xia Bai Yang will negatively impact the ecology in the region. Again, this topic can be an area environmental groups can address on educating the public.

- 62 -

Appendix: Survey (in Chinese)

吴城镇调查问卷 您好，我们来自江西师范大学“蓝天”环保社团，是世界自然基金会 2004 年的湿地 使者，想通过调查了解您对吴城自然保护区环境问题及保护的看法，希望能够得到您的 支持！ 本问卷不记名，请放心填写。谢谢您真诚的合作！ 江西师范大学“蓝天”环保社团 2004 年 7 月

基本情况 1、您的性别：①男

年龄： _____________

②女

职业：_______________

2、您受教育程度： A.小学 B.初中 C.高中及同等学历 D.大专以上 3、家庭人口劳动力情况： 您的家庭成员人数：_______ 劳动力数：___________ 60 岁以上人数：________ 18 岁以下人数：___________ 正在上学的人数____________ 3、您的家庭收入每年大概多少？ A..1000 以下 F.7000～10000

B.1000~3000

C.3000~5000

D.5000~7000

G、10000 元以上

4、您的家庭收入主要来源（可多选）

A.种田

B.本地务工

C.经商

D.外出打工

E、渔业收入

E.其它（工资收入、副业收入、子女赡养收入等） 5、您家目前是否有外出打工的?

A.有

B.没有

外出打工人数为：_________ 他们一年能赚多少钱？ A.、1000 以下

B、1000~3000

F 、7000～10000

C、.3000~5000

D、5000~7000

G、10000 元以上

相关问题： 1、您觉得现在湖泊里的水鸟的种类和数量有何变化？

A、种类和数量都增加

B、种类增加，数量减少

C、种类减少，数量增加

D、种类和数量都减少

F、没注意

2、您觉得现在湖泊里的鱼、虾种类和数量又有何变化？

A、种类和数量都增加

B、种类增加，数量减少

C、种类减少，数量增加

D、种类和数量都减少 - 63 -

F、没注意

3、您觉得现在湖泊里的芦苇、苇草是多了还是少了？ A、越来越多

B、越来越少

C、 没有变化

D、没注意

4、您觉得现在湖泊的总体环境与原来相比有什么变化？ A、变好了

B、.变差了

C、 没变化

D、 没注意

如果您认为总体环境变坏了，主要原因是什么呢？_________________ 5、您附近湖泊的捕鱼方式主要是？ A、电鱼

B、.药鱼

C、 网鱼

D、其它

6、您觉得您所在的湖区水质与过去相比有什么变化？ A、变好了 B、 变差了

C、 没变化

D、不清楚

7、您觉得种地种田所用的农药、化肥会不会使湖泊水质变差？ A、肯定

B、可能

C、不会

D、不清楚

8、您知道什么叫“生物多样性”吗？（不知道的湿地使者讲解一下） A、知道

B、.不知道

9、您认为当地的生物多样性遭到破坏吗？ A、遭到了严重的破坏 B、遭到了轻微的破坏 C、没有遭到破坏

D 不知道

10、您周围有人得血吸虫病吗？ A.很多

B 一般

C.很少

D.没有

F、不知道

11、您所在地的居民得血吸虫的比率是多少？ A.非常普遍（80%以上）

B. 普遍（60%—80%）

C.一般（30%—50%）

D. 很少（30%以下）

F、不知道

12、您所在的湖区还存在新的“围垦”的现象吗？ A.有

B.没有

C、不清楚

13、您对 “退田还湖、移民建镇”政策支持吗？ A.支持

B.不支持

C. 不关心

14、您对当地政府部门、渔业部门、自然保护区管理处的工作满意吗（分别问）？

为什么？_____________________________________________________ A、满意

B、一般

C、不满意

15、您认为在鄱阳湖湖区采砂会破坏当地的生态系统（环境）吗？ A．会

B、不会

C、不清楚

如果会，您认为有哪些影响？________________________________________ 16、您认为在湖区种植小白杨会对当地的生态系统（环境）有影响吗？ A．会

B、不会

C、不清楚

如果有，您认为会有哪些影响？_____________________________________ 调查时间：_____年_____月_____日_____时

- 64 -

调查人姓名：______________

复核员：________________ 复核时间：______年______月______日_______时 可信度：可信 _______

基本可信_______

- 65 -

不可信___________

Model Equations Environment Natural_Lake__Area(t) = Natural_Lake__Area(t - dt) + (lake_restoring - land_reclaiming) * dt INIT Natural_Lake__Area = 4000 INFLOWS: lake_restoring = STEP(333,1999)*returning_lake_policy + STEP(-333,2002)*returning_lake_policy OUTFLOWS: land_reclaiming = IF(TIME>2003) THEN ( if(actual_income_per_person<lower_bound_income_triggering_land_reclamation_re_resettleme nt) then 100 else 0) ELSE 0 Reclaimed_Land__from_Lake_Area(t) = Reclaimed_Land__from_Lake_Area(t - dt) + (land_reclaiming - lake_restoring) * dt INIT Reclaimed_Land__from_Lake_Area = 1000 INFLOWS: land_reclaiming = IF(TIME>2003) THEN ( if(actual_income_per_person<lower_bound_income_triggering_land_reclamation_re_resettleme nt) then 100 else 0) ELSE 0 OUTFLOWS: lake_restoring = STEP(333,1999)*returning_lake_policy + STEP(-333,2002)*returning_lake_policy number_of_rare_birds = 2e4 returning_lake_policy = 1

Public Health - Schistosomiasis endemic_infected(t) = endemic_infected(t - dt) + (becoming_infected - recovering) * dt INIT endemic_infected = .2*(3e6) INFLOWS: becoming_infected = endemic_uninfected*infection_rate OUTFLOWS: recovering = cure_rate*endemic_infected endemic_uninfected(t) = endemic_uninfected(t - dt) + (recovering + re_resettling becoming_infected - resettling) * dt INIT endemic_uninfected = .8*(3e6)

- 66 -

INFLOWS: recovering = cure_rate*endemic_infected re_resettling = if(actual_income_per_person<lower_bound_income_triggering_land_reclamation_re_resettleme nt) THEN 47e3 ELSE 0 OUTFLOWS: becoming_infected = endemic_uninfected*infection_rate resettling = STEP(5e5/3,1999)*resettlement_policy + STEP(-5e5/3,2002)*resettlement_policy non_endemic(t) = non_endemic(t - dt) + (resettling - re_resettling) * dt INIT non_endemic = 0 INFLOWS: resettling = STEP(5e5/3,1999)*resettlement_policy + STEP(-5e5/3,2002)*resettlement_policy OUTFLOWS: re_resettling = if(actual_income_per_person<lower_bound_income_triggering_land_reclamation_re_resettleme nt) THEN 47e3 ELSE 0 cure_rate = IF(MOD(TIME*52,52) < 2) THEN (0.85) ELSE (0) infection_rate = Natural_Lake__Area/non_lake_contacting__income_per_person*0.005 prevalence = endemic_infected/(endemic_infected + endemic_uninfected) resettlement_policy = 1

Regional Economy actual_income_per_person = total_potential_income_per_person*productivity_potential ecotourism_income = 600 ecotourism_income_per_person = IF (TIME > 2003) THEN ( supporting_ecotourism__policy*ecotourism_income ) ELSE 0 farming_income_per_km2_of_reclaimed_land_per_person = 2 farming_income__from_reclaimed_land__per_person = Reclaimed_Land__from_Lake_Area*farming_income_per_km2_of_reclaimed_land_per_person lower_bound_income_triggering_land_reclamation_re_resettlement = 800 non_lake_contacting__income_per_person = total_potential_income_per_person-farming_income__from_reclaimed_land__per_person other_non_lake__contacting_income = 500 productivity_potential = (non_endemic + endemic_uninfected + .75*endemic_infected)/(non_endemic + endemic_uninfected + endemic_infected) supporting_ecotourism__policy = 1 total_potential_income_per_person = ecotourism_income_per_person + other_non_lake__contacting_income + farming_income__from_reclaimed_land__per_person Not in a sector

- 67 -

Model Sensitivity Analysis Variation on â&#x20AC;&#x153;other non lake-contacting incomeâ&#x20AC;? from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments:

Regional Economy actual income per person: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

6000

5

4 5

5 4

3

1:

3

4

4

2

2

3000

5

3

3 1

1

2

2 1

1:

0

1 1992.00

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks

Page 6

2007.00 2012.00 11:28 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Senstiv ity

Environment Natural Lake Area: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

5000

2

3

4

5

2

3

4

5

5

1 1:

4500

4

3

1:

4000

1 2 1992.00

Page 5

3

4

5 1 1997.00

2 2002.00 Weeks Untitled

Public Health

- 68 -

2007.00 2012.00 11:28 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

prev alence: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

0

2 3 2

4 0

1:

2

5

2

3 3

4

5

3

4 5

1:

0

1992.00

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks

Page 7

4

5

2007.00 2012.00 11:28 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Untitled

Variation on Ecotourism income: from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments Regional Economy actual income per person: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

4000

5

5

4

4

1:

1

2000

2

3

4

5

1

3

3

2 3

2 2

4

1

5 1:

0

1 1992.00

Page 6

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks Senstiv ity

Environment

- 69 -

2007.00 2012.00 11:37 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Natural Lake Area: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

5000

2

3

4

5

3

4

5

2

5

1 1:

4500

4

3

1:

4000

1 2 1992.00

3

4

5 1 1997.00

2 2002.00 Weeks

Page 5

2007.00 2012.00 11:37 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Untitled

Public Health prev alence: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1:

1

4

0

5

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3

3

1 4

2

5 2

1

3 4 1:

0

1992.00

Page 7

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks

5

2007.00 2012.00 11:37 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Untitled

Variation on Farming income per km2 per person from 0 to 3 (0; 0.75; 1.50; 2.25; 3)

Region Economy

- 70 -

actual income per person: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

3000 5

4

1:

1500

3

5 3

2

0

2

1

1

1992.00

4

5

2

3 2

5

1:

3

4

4

1

1

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks

Page 6

2007.00 2012.00 11:43 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Senstiv ity

Environment Natural Lake Area: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

5000

5

2 3 4

5

5 4 1

1:

4500

4

3 2

3

1:

4000

1 2 1992.00

Page 5

3

4

5 1 1997.00

2 2002.00 Weeks Untitled

Public Health

- 71 -

2007.00 2012.00 11:43 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

prev alence: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

5

1

4

5

1

2

2

3

3

4 1:

0

3

4 5

2

1 2

1

1:

0

1992.00

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks

Page 7

3

4

5

2007.00 2012.00 11:43 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Untitled

Lower bounds that trigger policy reversals from 100 to 4000 RMB in 5 equal increments. (100; 1075; 2050; 3025; 4000)

Regional Economy actual income per person: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

3000

5 1

1:

2

4 3

4

5

1

3

2 3

1500

5 2

4

4

3 2

1

5 1:

0

1 1992.00

Page 6

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks Senstiv ity

Environment

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2007.00 2012.00 11:47 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Natural Lake Area: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

5000

1

2 3

5

2

4 5

1:

4500

4 3 4 3

1:

4000

1 2 1992.00

3

4

5 1 1997.00

5

2 2002.00 Weeks

Page 5

2007.00 2012.00 11:47 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

Untitled

Public Health prev alence: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 1:

1

4 5

1

2

5

1 2

3

3

4 1:

0

3

4 5

2

1 2

1

1: Page 7

0

1992.00

3

1997.00

2002.00 Weeks Untitled

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4

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2007.00 2012.00 11:47 PM Tue, Apr 19, 2005

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2.

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5.

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7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

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14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

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