Markus Kafurke, Paris

Maritime Security

Sea blindness? – Few people realise how much the prosperity of every single European country depends on the sea: the safety of shipping lanes, unrestricted maritime transport around the globe and lawful, uncontested access to marine resources are paramount.

The sea offers a huge potential How to reconnect nations with their navies

by Markus Kafurke, Commander (Germany), Naval Staff, Paris

(edt.) The Chiefs of European Navies (CHENS), meeting in Athens on 10 May, endorsed a report entitled “How to reconnect our nations with their navies”, whose objective was to present the framework for a coherent European Sea Vision. The report was drawn up by a multinational CHENS working group on strategic communication chaired by French Navy Commander Philippe Minon. The Rapporteur was Commander Markus Kafurke of Germany, who presents a summary of the report.

At present, two thirds of the world’s population live within 80 km of the coast. However, the importance and the influence of the sea for the economy extend far beyond those 80 km.

The sea as a source of prosperity and resources The economies of countries all over the world are tightly interconnected in complex, time-critical ways: containers, and the ships that carry them, are the storage depots and warehouses of today’s businesses; production facilities are moving closer to resources (natural resources or work forces); supply chains

Markus Kafurke German Navy Commander Markus Kafurke, born in 1971 near Frankfurt, Germany, currently works in the plans and policy department of the Naval Staff of the Marine Nationale, Paris. In this capacity he is the main point of contact for the members of the CHENS forum and the Rapporteur for the working group on strategic communication. After joining the German Navy in 1990, he pursued a career in naval aviation as a Lynx helicopter pilot. Before his current posting, he attended the Advanced Staff Training Course (19th graduating class) at the Ecole de Guerre in Paris. are getting longer and inventories are getting smaller. Despite all this, productivity is rising and costs are falling, because every part of the production process can take place where conditions are best. All this is held together by affordable and reliable maritime transport!

Transport of oil and gas In addition to the goods that are shipped back and forth, one more essential item is required in order to guarantee productivity and development: energy. Oil, gas, coal and uranium, to name just four components, are important resources that are not readily available in every country. This uneven distribution creates a large-scale and complex import and export programme for all sources of energy. Any disturbance of these flows will directly affect energy prices; this happened during the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, when the oil price doubled within a year, a development that would rapidly jeopardise our current standard of living by making heating and transportation more expensive. In the case of oil, providers are limited in number, as well as in their geographic location. Those providers face a huge number of consumers with different demands, sometimes several thousand kilometres away, a challenge that could not be met without reliable maritime transport. What does it take to ensure that maritime transport remains unrestricted and reliable?

Renewable energy The sea is a very promising source of renewable energy. The production of electricity at sea is already at an advanced stage thanks to the use of offshore wind turbines secured on the ocean floor. The development of a floating type will reduce the limitations in terms of water depth, allowing wind turbines to

be installed in a considerably larger part of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In addition to wind power, electricity can be produced using wave or tidal energy as well as the difference in water temperature between the surface and the deep sea. These forms of energy production are still in a developmental stage, but the first results are very promising. However, any offshore production of energy will result in the installation of critical and expensive infrastructure, sometimes far off the coast; this infrastructure needs to be patrolled or protected to ensure energy security.

Resources Advances in the field of offshore energy will help to diversify the geographic distribution and increase the number of oil and gas producers. But oil and gas are not the only resources to be found at sea; there are also considerable mineral deposits on the ocean floor. They range from possible new energy sources in the form of methane hydrate or hydrogen, to deep-sea nodules containing different metals as well as rare-earth elements, the latter being extremely important for high-tech industries such as the telecommunications and renewable energy sectors. Last but not least, the sea is a source of food. For many countries, the exploitation of fish resources in the exclusive economic zone is not only an important source of food, but also a major source of income. Exploiting, managing and protecting the fish resources therefore contributes directly to the prosperity of these countries. However, with the right to exploit the resources in the exclusive economic zone comes the responsibility to protect them against over-exploitation. Without sustainability there can be no long-term development. What does it take to protect natural resources against unlawful or unsustainable exploitation?

Developments endangering the current situation The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), signed in 1982, sets the limit for the exclusive economic zone at 200 nautical miles. Increasing competition for resources at sea However, the exploitation of resources on or under the ocean floor is limited to the continental shelf, which can extend beyond 200 nautical miles. Within the last decade, several countries have requested the extension of their continental shelf to up to 350 nautical miles! The extension of the maritime limits in the quest for natural resources or renewable energy will provoke greater strategic tensions. The expansion of areas of influence, including the redrawing of borders, has often been a cause of war on land. The same potential exists at sea. This leads to diplomatic tensions that are hard, if not impossible, to resolve.

Increasing importance of the routes to Asia A closer look shows the importance of Asia to be increasing more rapidly than that of any other region, for four key reasons: the plentiful supply of certain resources (rare earths), the production sites (India, China), the logistic hubs (ports) and the rising demand for raw materials and resources for the quickly growing economies there. This dependence on the free flow of goods along the maritime routes to and from Asia means that local economies all over the world are very vulnerable to any potential disturbances of these vital sea lanes. In consequence, even though a disturbance might actually happen at a considerable distance from the country itself, it will have a strong local effect after only a very short lapse of time. It is therefore more than prudent to carefully consider this dependence and to closely monitor the developments in this

The CHENS-Paper in short

The economy depends on maritime transport. The critical infrastructure for offshore energy production needs to be protected. The responsible exploitation of resources at sea offers a way to reduce the dependency on a single source or region and thereby leads to a more stable and more secure supply. The prospect of harvesting resources from the sea leads to an increasing territorialisation of the sea and might lead to conflicts. European economies are increasingly at risk through disturbances of the global maritime sea lanes; even though such a disturbance may materialise a considerable distance away, the local impact will be immediate. New routes that become available due to environmental changes might relieve existing routes, but might also increase the competition for access to resources and demand localised supporting infrastructure. To safeguard against piracy, terrorism, and unlawful acts at sea, a certain capacity to protect, control, pursue and intervene is, and will remain, essential. Certain countries are markedly increasing their naval potential in order to assert their claims or to protect their prosperity or sovereignty. European countries continue to reduce the number of naval units; this creates imbalanced naval forces and may lead to a complete loss of certain capabilities that cannot be easily compensated.

region. The effects of global warming will eventually open up the northern passages: new routes towards Asia via the Arctic that will greatly reduce transit times and fuel costs. While the opening of the northern passages provides a back-up for the existing routes, and a shorter one at that, it will also create new problems at a strategic level, e.g. an increase in maritime traffic, further exploration and exploitation of fish and undersea resources, and the need for new infrastructure and support for this previously unseen level of maritime activity.

Activities at sea are increasing, but so are the risks The increase in globalisation will bring about an even greater volume of maritime traffic. This alone requires a lot of attention to avoid delays or even accidents.

Piracy While criminal acts at sea have always existed, the increase in shipping combined with the availability of navigation equipment and automatic weapons makes piracy a promising line of business. Piracy cannot be countered by political measures alone: the close cooperation of three navies was a major deterrent to pirate activity in the Strait of Malacca1. The disruption of maritime transport, by accidents, by attacks at sea, through the blocking of vital choke points, or by the mining of important ports, could send shock waves through the local economies and even, depending on the level of disruption achieved, throughout Europe.

Environment In addition to ships, goods and infrastructure, the environment too is at risk. Unlawful activities like illegal fishing, illegal extraction of resources and pollution expose a weakness of the high seas: they are an ungoverned space whose use for peaceful purposes depends on the compliance of the ships’ masters and flag states. Experience shows that unlawful activities will increase as the capacity to control and protect decreases! With offshore mineral extraction pushing beyond the limits of a state’s EEZ or continental shelf, more and more ships and installations will be present on the high seas, a fact that deserves special attention.

Increasing number of naval assets The growing importance of marine resources has led some countries to shift the focus of new developments and procurements to naval assets. Additionally, many developing countries use their revenues to increase their number of military assets; military power goes hand in hand with economic power – or it is deemed necessary to protect economic power. This development affects the whole spectrum of naval assets –from small, lightly armed units to enforce/protect sovereign rights closer to the coast, all the way to large, heavily armed units capable of operating on the high seas, such as aircraft carriers, amphibious assault craft or even nuclear submarines. This is particularly prevalent in the countries bordering the South China Sea; while one country is increasing its naval assets to support its claims, the neighbouring countries are increasing their assets to counter this increase in assets on the part of the former! One of the main reasons given for the development of nuclear submarines in Brazil is “[…] to protect riches located on the continental shelf and discourage any aggressive foreign actions in Brazilian waters” 2 . It is probable that these countries already recognise that a global capacity to protect and intervene is indispensable for prosperity and sustained economic development in this globalised world.

The danger of falling behind While some Asian and South American countries are markedly increasing the quantity and quality of their naval assets, EU countries are continuing to reduce the number of units. That trend towards a smaller number of units will only be aggravated by the ever-tighter budgets resulting from the financial crisis. However, it remains to be seen whether these smaller numbers of expensive, albeit high-tech units can provide the same presence. In some areas, the small numbers might suggest completely

giving up a certain capability. This is not a decision to be taken lightly, especially where highly complex systems like submarines or aircraft carriers are involved! In these areas the loss of operational, technical, or industrial expertise cannot be reversed quickly when the financial situation improves. Once such a capability is completely lost, it can take a long time to rebuild it; in the case of aircraft carriers, it can take up to 20 years!

A possible solution Two key questions are raised in the report: - “How to ensure unrestricted maritime transport?” and - “How to protect marine resources from unlawful exploitation?” For both questions there is an answer: this is what the Navy does! Every day, on every mission, naval units patrol the maritime spaces in the air, on the surface and below the surface as well. These units represent the sovereign right of each country to control its maritime spaces, to enforce international rules and regulations, and to protect its assets and interests at sea. Every day, naval units track shipping traffic, help people in distress and work to protect shipping lanes against threats –even far away from their respective countries. This great spectrum of tasks requires a matching spectrum of capabilities. Smaller, lightly armed units might be enough to protect resources against unlawful exploitation; but ensuring unrestricted global maritime transport requires larger, high-seas-capable units. To remain a credible player in the global quest for resources and economic development requires a well-balanced mix of resources; this includes a certain level of high-end military capabilities. Furthermore, these high-impact units enable each country to perform rather traditional Navy missions3 – from internationally mandated operations such as the one in Libya to national operations, for example the evacuation of citizens from a crisis region.

Conclusion The sea is pivotal to economic development and prosperity in a globalised world as a means of affordable, effective and reliable transport. The sea is also a source of food, minerals and energy, with many resources yet to be discovered. The increasing scarcity of land resources will shift the focus more and more to the sea and lead to increased competition or even conflicts at sea. Unrestricted and lawful access to sea lanes and marine resources are therefore of strategic interest for all European countries! In order to safeguard economic prosperity and participate in a responsible exploitation of new resources, a credible and

News: EU fight against piracy

New EU funding to support Eastern and Southern Africa On 21 May 2013, the EU announced a new funding of some €37 million to strengthen the fight against piracy in several Eastern and Southern African countries through support for the Programme to promote Regional Maritime Security (MASE). The new programme will help to develop the legal and judicial system of countries in the region, so that they are better equipped for the arrest and transfer of pirates. In Somalia, in particular, the programme will also carry out anti-piracy awareness campaigns in areas where piracy is prevalent. Andris Piebalgs, Commissioner responsible for development said: “This new European support marks a step forward in the fight against piracy because it demonstrates the EU’s on-going commitment to combating this complex problem. Strengthening security in the maritime routes is crucial for us because it will help boosting trade and growth in the region, which would enormously improve people’s lives.” High Representative Catherine Ashton said that “this money will help to build on the progress we have made by strengthening legal systems, improving financial controls and training young men to find alternatives to piracy.”

Increase of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) published a policy brief on the situation in the Gulf of Guinea. The document states that “following a spectacular decline in the Gulf of Aden, incidents of armed robbery at sea and piracy (which legally refer to attacks beyond territorial waters) are now on the rise in the Gulf of Guinea. In 2012, the International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre recorded 58 attacks, including 10 hijackings. Nigeria is the most affected country, with 27 attacks in 2012 (almost three times more than in 2011), and 11 already reported for the first quarter of 2013. Most of the attacks target vessels connected to the oil industry, but they also disrupt trade and transport in the region as a whole, thereby posing a security threat to the international community as well as African states. “

> The EUISS brief is available at: http://tinyurl.com/mbgdlhs

coherent capability to protect and intervene is essential if CHENS countries are to be able to meet their strategic aims. The CHENS navies provide such a capability to protect and intervene, if they have the right equipment. With this capability to protect and intervene, CHENS navies ensure prosperity and future development.

1 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1893032,00.html, access 22.02.2012 2 http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2009-06/why-does-brazil-neednuclear-submarines, access 17 January 2013 3 The CHENS Maritime Operational Concept (cf. note 5) groups possible naval activities in the maritime security spectrum into the following 4 groups : 1. Maritime Defence, 2. Maritime Security Operations, 3. Crisis Response Operations, 4. Naval Diplomacy