New US President elect and the end of “America’s first”
_________________________________ Dr Lorenc Xhaferraj 22 November 2020
Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. 3 US President Elections 2020 ........................................................................................................ 5 Joe Biden Presidency challenges ................................................................................................ 9 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 16 About us ............................................................................................................................................. 18
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Foreword On 3 November 2020 the US registered voters casted their votes to elect their 46th President. According to Bloomberg, the total number of votes cast for president was a range from roughly 157.1 million to 165.0 million (68.6%–72.1% of the citizen voting-age population). As vote counts continue to be finalized, 50 states have already seen turnout higher than 2016 levels.1 Fair and free elections are a hallmark of American democracy and the US has long promoted itself as the world’s beacon of democracy. It is quite common for many countries in the world to seek assistance or the opinion of the US government whether the elections conducted in these countries were free and fair. Now, the most essential tool of democracy, free and fair elections, is under attack in the US itself. The 2020 elections were unique in the history of the US president elections. These elections were the first-time nationwide voting held during a pandemic that continues to ravage the country. US tops the world list with more than 12,5 million of citizen infected with Covid-19 and 260.000 deaths2. However, even with the pandemic, over 100 million Americans had already voted during the early voting, through the postal route, which has delayed significantly the certification of the final results. At the time of writing this publication, it has been more than two weeks since Joe Biden was projected to be the winner of the popular vote and of this year presidential election, but the current US President, Donal Trump, doesn’t accept this result. Since then, Republicans and US President Trump’s campaign have made a great number of attempts to take the election results to the courts and persuade state Republican officials into helping them subvert the votes of their constituents. Many of those legal challenges have been tossed out by judges, some within hours of their
1 2
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-us-election-voter-turnout/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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filing; again, none of the complaints show any evidence that the outcome of the election was affected. By inauguration day (January 20, 2021), Biden will be 78 years old, while Trump 74. The projected to win president Biden would become the oldest president to take office, at the age of 78, while Republican candidate Donald Trump will be the first president in decades since George Bush Sr. to not secure a second term in the White House. The other presidents who didn’t get a second term are William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush Sr. The US 2020 elections were the most expensive one in history costing over $14 billion – twice as costly as the last election cycle. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has raised over a billion dollars from donors – becoming the first candidate in history to do so3. Joe Biden is projected to win the US presidential race after Donald Trump lost support among the white voters who carried him to success in 2016, while Americans have become more divided by place and income. Mr Trump gained ground among the wealthy people, while the more educated people preferred to vote for the Democratic Party candidate Biden4. World leaders have congratulated President elect Biden and are expecting from him to overturn most of the controversial policies put in place in the US during the Trump’s presidency. US federal states have until 14th of December to finish the counting and certify the results. That’s also the day Electoral College delegations are to meet in their respective states to cast and tally electoral votes, with a joint session of Congress set for 6 January 2021 to affirm the count and declare the official result.
3 4
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/2020-election-spending-to-hit-nearly-14-billion-a-record.html https://www.ft.com/content/69f3206f-37a7-4561-bebf-5929e7df850d
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US President Elections 2020 While the counting of votes has almost ended, the legal battles continue in the US federal courts. Joe Biden is projected to be the next President of the United States, with a wide lead in both the electoral college and in the popular vote. BBC has projected the Democratic Party nominee Biden will win 306 electoral votes, out of 270 needed to be elected.
Since the first results appeared, President Trump has refused to concede, uttering baseless allegations of election fraud that have been amplified by Republican allies and conservative media outlets. His campaign has gone to court in at least five states seeking to challenge the counting of certain ballots or the certification of the vote. The issues Mr Trump’s campaign and its allies have pointed to are typical in every election: problems with signatures, secrecy envelopes and postmarks on mail-in ballots, as well as the potential for a small number of ballots miscast or lost. With every passing day, inside the White House officials have grown pessimistic about this legal effort, but officially, the Trump campaign has said it will fight on, despite its losses. On 15 November, 12 days after the election day, President Donald Trump tweeted “He won….5”, signalling for the very first time the acknowledgment of the fact that Joe Biden won the White House. At the same time, Trump made clear he would not concede and would keep trying to overturn the 5
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327979630477922304
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election result. Trump's statements came in tweets that included several baseless claims about the vote on 3 November, which state and federal officials say was safe and secure. On 14 November2020, the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, a federal agency that oversees U.S. election security, said in a statement that the “November 3rd election was the most secure in American history.” The agency confirmed,” There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.6” This statement has enraged President Trump, who on 17 November fired Mr. Christopher Krebs, a top Department of Homeland Security official who led the agency’s efforts to help secure the election and was vocal about tamping down unfounded claims of ballot fraud. Despite ongoing contest from the president Trump, elections experts predict Biden’s margin of victory will surpass former President Barack Obama’s 4 %-point popular vote lead in 2012. But what alarms many Democrats is a growing gap between their popular vote tallies and their political power. Democrats may be winning over more supporters, but as long as those votes are clustered on the coasts or in cities and suburbs, they won’t deliver the necessary seats at the House of Representatives or Senate the party needs to enact its policies. That power gap is especially clear this year. While Biden was racking up those historic margins, Democrats lost at least eight seats in the House of Representatives and failed to gain a single statehouse — in fact, they lost control of New Hampshire’s legislature. They also fell short of taking back control of the U.S. Senate, with their hopes now resting on winning two run-off elections in Georgia that are considered an uphill climb for the party. As we may recall, President Bush won re-election in 2004 with 50.7% of the national vote. But Democrats have won it every presidential election since, including in 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton won 2.9 million more votes but lost the White House to Trump because she narrowly lost critical swing states and did not win a majority of electors. 6
https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinatingcouncil-election
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The Trump-era polarization has accelerated the divide. Trump has performed well with white voters, specifically white voters who have not graduated from a four-year college — a group that is fairly evenly distributed throughout the 50 states. Democrats, meanwhile, have gained ground with college graduates, who are more likely to cluster in cities, and in states like Massachusetts and Colorado7.
The 2020 presidential election has just shown us, class is a topic that matters just as much, perhaps even more, at least in terms of votes. While the Republican incumbent, Donald Trump, won a majority of small towns and rural areas, his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, took communities that represent 70 % of the US economy. No matter where voters were in the country, if they lived in an economic growth hub, it’s likely that they voted for Mr Biden. This tells us some important things about America.
7
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-barack-obama-democracyaac449060f5b9f2e991c0be19323b49b
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First, that wealth and power are concentrated in just a few places. When you look at an electoral map of the US, it is overwhelmingly red, except on the coasts and a few inland urban areas8. Trump’s post-election moves spark outcry.9 He fired his defence secretary, installed a conspiracy-minded loyalist as chief counsel at an intelligence agency, and tapped a retired army colonel who backed martial law on the Mexican border for a top Pentagon job. And all this within days of being declared the loser of a presidential election — a result Donald Trump has declared fraudulent. Mr Trump has targeted the process of confirming the election itself. Bill Barr, US attorney-general, a chief enforcer of Mr Trump’s more controversial legal forays, has authorised federal prosecutors to investigate possible election crimes before the results are certified10. It is expected that all the US federal states will be able to finish the counting and certify the results by 14 December 2020. That’s also the day Electoral College delegations will hold their meetings in their respective states to cast and tally electoral votes. After this, a joint session of the Congress, scheduled to take place on 6 January 2021 will affirm the count and declare the official result. It’s a very complicated process that involves some arithmetic formulas on how the popular vote will be converted to seats and mandates in Congress11.
8
Opinion US inequality America’s other identity divide — class https://www.ft.com/content/1feee3e6-1c37-466e-ab4e-959997cc6832 9 https://www.ft.com/content/16653c81-ce8e-4ec7-b17b-6507b74f871d 10 Ibid 11 https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-barack-obama-democracyaac449060f5b9f2e991c0be19323b49b
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Joe Biden Presidency challenges When Mr Biden formally announced his entry into the 2020 presidential race, he declared that he stood for two things: • •
workers who "built this country" values that can bridge its divisions.
As the US faces challenges from coronavirus to racial inequity, his pitch is to create new economic opportunities for workers, restore environmental protections and healthcare rights, and international alliances12. As the country is ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic, president elect Biden faces tough choice of whether to back virus lockdowns. He, unlikely any other incoming President, faces a tough decision when he will be inaugurated in January: whether to back a short-term national lockdown to finally arrest a raging pandemic. For now, it’s a question the president-elect would prefer to avoid. In the week since he defeated President Donald Trump, Biden has devoted most of his public remarks to encouraging Americans to wear a mask and view the coronavirus as a threat that has no regard for political ideology. He campaigned as a more responsible steward of America’s public health than President Donald Trump is and has been blunt about the challenges that lie ahead for the country, warning of a “dark winter” as cases spike. But talk of lockdowns are especially sensitive for two principal reasons. First, lockdown measures are nearly impossible for a president to enact on his own, since they are requiring bipartisan support from state and local officials. Second and more broadly, lockdown measures could serve as a political flashpoint that could undermine Biden’s efforts to unify a deeply divided country. Apart from tackling the pandemic, President Biden has to deal with significant challenges in numbers and complexity resulting of President Trump’s legacy. Mr Trump has proved one of the most divisive presidents in recent US history, after his controversial 2016 run that saw him switch from being a
12
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53575474
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reality TV star and businessman to an outspoken campaigner who appealed to a particular "base" with his nationalistic, pro-American rhetoric. He quickly courted disquiet with a move to ban immigrants from Muslim countries, but won plaudits for a tax-cut package that many commentators say boosted the US economy. His "America First" policies have angered many on the international stage, particularly China, which Mr Trump sees as benefiting unfairly from an unbalanced world trade system, and have caused concern on the markets, and his withdrawals from the Paris climate accord, the Iran deal and other agreements have drawn many critics13. Mr Biden will proceed carefully, providing reassurance with a few big symbolic acts, starting with a return to the Paris climate accord in the first days of his administration. But the substantive rebuilding of U.S. power will proceed far more slowly. President-elect Joe Biden is planning to quickly sign a series of executive orders after being sworn into office on 20 January, immediately forecasting that the country’s politics have shifted and that his presidency will be guided by radically different priorities. Apart from re-joining the Paris climate accords he will reverse President Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization. In his first 100 days in office, Mr Biden promises to reverse Trump policies that separate parents from their children at the US-Mexican border, rescind limits on the number of applications for asylum and end the bans on travel from several majority-Muslim countries. He also promises to protect the "Dreamers" - people brought illegally to the US as children who were permitted to stay under an Obama-era policy - as well as ensure they are eligible for federal student aid14. In an effort to cure the US foreign policy, President-elect Biden declared he will end Trump’s policy ‘America First’ as a guiding principle of the US’s foreign policy15.
13
https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-a-simple-guide-to-the-2020-presidential-race-12050885 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53575474 15 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/biden-foreign-policy.html 14
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According to Biden, “America first” policy came to define a United States that built walls and made working with allies an afterthought — and undermined any chance of forging a common international approach to fighting Covid-19 pandemic that has cost more than 1.5 million lives. Biden has also promised to repair relationships with US allies, particularly with the NATO alliance. He would sign up for another five years of the only surviving nuclear arms treaty with Russia and double down on American commitments to NATO after four years of threats from President Trump to withdraw from the alliance, which guided the West through the Cold War. At the same time, Mr. Biden says he will make Russia “pay a price” for what he says have been disruptions and attempts to influence elections — including his own. Mr Biden was willing to impose substantial and lasting costs on perpetrators of the Russian interference, which could include financial sanctions, asset freezes, counter cyberattacks and, potentially, the exposure of corruption by the leaders of foreign countries. That would signify a hardening in U.S. policy. But it would also involve steps that the Obama administration considered taking in its last six months when Mr. Biden was vice president, and never carried out. Another expected move from Mr. Biden in the foreign affairs domain, is reentering the Iran nuclear deal, assuming Iran is willing to reverse course and observe its limits set by the P5+1 deal and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions. The most vivid example, according to Biden closest advisers, will come in rethinking China strategy. His own advisers concede that in the Obama years, Mr. Biden and his national security team underestimated the speed with which President Xi Jinping of China would crackdown on dissent at home and use the combination of its 5G networks and its Belt and Road Initiative to challenge U.S. influence. China is just one arena — though probably the most important — where Mr. Biden’s long-held views will come into first contact with new realities. Mr. Biden has suggested that the Trump crackdowns may continue — though surrounded by more skilful diplomacy to bring European and other allies on board. 11 _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org
Complicating the issue is Mr. Biden’s insistence that, unlike Mr. Trump, he will put values back at the centre of foreign policy, including how to approach the United States’ relationship with the EU allies, China, and Russia. For the UK, it is expected President elect Biden will push the UK to reach a trade deal with the EU and then to start fresh new negotiations on UK-US trade deal. The UK Prime Minister Johnson’s dream of a trade deal with the US underpinning the UK’s pivot away from the European Union won enthusiastic support from Donald Trump. But President-elect Joe Biden is looking at another aspect of the divorce: The Good Friday peace agreement on Northern Ireland. The UK remains a vital US ally and the UK Prime Minister Johnson was the first leader in Europe that Biden spoke to after winning the election. However, President elect Biden spoke at the same day to the Irish Prime Minister, Micheal Martin, and reportedly he impressed on Johnson the importance of the Good Friday Agreement. President elect Biden, who’ll enter the White House on 20 January 2020 as the most Irish president since John. F. Kennedy, has it made clear the pact can’t become a “casualty of Brexit16.” From the economy point of view, President elect Biden will inherit an economy ravaged by the COVID-19 crisis, which has led to more than 250,000 deaths, 22 million jobs lost (half of which it’s barely recovered) and an unemployment rate that reached almost 15% in April. Some of Biden’s key plans include providing paid leave for sick workers, investing $700 billion in a “Made in All of America” campaign, moving toward cleaner energy, and protecting the Affordable Care Act. But they will likely face obstacles with a divided government. From Biden’s economic plan, it is worth to highlight the following two areas, which might have a greater impact on international trade: Taxes:
16
https://www.ft.com/content/f1052807-a864-4b27-9b26-52d27ca7e95f
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Biden’s tax plan aims to increase taxes on high earners and reinstate policies that had been in place prior to the Trump administration. It includes: •
•
•
•
• • •
Raising taxes on Americans making more than $400,000, while keeping tax rates at current levels for anybody making under that amount. Restoring the top tax rate for individuals from 37% to 39.6%. The top tax bracket applies to individuals making more than about $518,400 and joint married couples making more than about $622,000. Capping the tax benefits of itemized deductions to 28% of value. So for those with tax rates higher than 28%, they would see a 28-cent tax reduction for every dollar spent on charitable giving, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Increase the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is placed on profits from asset sales) from 23.8% to 39.6% for people with incomes over $1 million. Raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Imposing sanctions on tax havens. Raising tax rates on foreign profits.
An analysis of Biden’s policies from Penn Wharton Budget Model found that between 2021–2030, Biden’s platform would raise $3.375 trillion in additional tax revenue, increase government spending by $5.37 trillion in areas like education and Social Security, and decrease the federal debt by 6.1%17. Climate change: Over the summer 2020, Biden announced a $2 trillion plan to combat climate change and invest in clean energy, with the long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. His goals include: •
17
Providing American cities with 100,000 or more residents with zeroemissions public transportation options like light rail networks and infrastructure for pedestrians and bicyclists.
https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/07/a-primer-on-joe-bidens-fiscal-and-economic-policies/
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• • •
•
Upgrading 4 million buildings and weatherizing 2 million homes to increase energy efficiency. Creating 1.5 million sustainable homes and housing units. Creating jobs in “climate-smart agriculture, resilience and conservation,” which would entail reclaiming abandoned coal, hardrock and uranium mines. Re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement. Under the agreement, about 200 countries have pledged to reduce carbon emissions18.
The effects of climate change have especially been in the US spotlight recently as wildfires have spread across the West Coast, which experts attribute in part to climate change. While Trump blamed the wildfires on forest management, Biden has acknowledged the role of global warming in these disasters and called Trump a “climate arsonist.19” The Democratic Party, House Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey have proposed a Green New Deal20, a broad vision that calls for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adding millions of new jobs and providing universal health care. The Green New Deal Resolution, proposed by Democratic Party lays out the goals and projects for a ten-year national mobilization to: •
build resiliency against climate change-related disasters;
•
repair and upgrade U.S. infrastructure;
•
meet 100 percent of our power demand through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources;
•
build or upgrade to energy-efficient, distributed and “smart” power grids;
•
upgrade all existing U.S. buildings and build new buildings, to achieve maximum energy efficiency;
18
Ibid https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/14/biden-trump-wildfires-messages-campaign-trailcalifornia 20 https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-markey-and-rep-ocasio-cortez-introducegreen-new-deal-resolution 19
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•
spur massive growth in clean U.S. manufacturing and remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing and industry;
•
work with farmers and ranchers to remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector;
•
overhaul U.S. transportation systems;
•
remove greenhouse gases and reduce pollution, including by restoring our natural ecosystems through proven low-tech solutions;
•
restore and protect threatened, endangered, and fragile ecosystems;
•
clean up existing hazardous waste and abandoned sites;
•
make the United States the international leader on climate action and help other countries achieve a Green New Deal
While Republicans have claimed that Biden is pushing for the green deal, his plans are far less sweeping and wouldn’t include universal health care.
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Conclusion The 3 November 2020 elections were unique in the history of the US presidential elections. Not only they were the first-time nationwide elections held during a pandemic that continues to ravage the country, but most importantly, for the fact their result is being contested so blatantly and unprecedentedly by the outgoing president. Fair and free elections are a hallmark of American democracy and the US has long promoted itself as the world’s beacon of democracy. Now, the most essential tool of democracy, free and fair elections, is under attack in the US itself. The post-election situation in the US is not normal, nor calm, nor predictable. Outgoing US president’s refusal to accept result, firing of the Defence Secretary and of a top official at the Department of Homeland Security, in the immediate aftermath of his failed re-election campaign, cast fears that President Trump is trying hard to stay in office. President Trump’s decision to overhaul the senior ranks of the defence and parts of the intelligence establishment has sparked concern that the President Trump could well shatter the most sacred of democratic standards: the peaceful transfer of power. The pressure on Trump to accept the fact he lost these elections is mounting with every single day passing. His legal cases are being overturned by the courts and his own close advisors have grown pessimistic about the worthiness of legal efforts to overturn the results. President elect, Joe Biden, is boosting his confidence and accelerating the processes of taking up the White House on 20 January 2021. In his first 100 days in office, Mr Biden is expected to take the necessary steps to reverse Trump policies that separate parents from their children at the USMexican border, rescind limits on the number of applications for asylum and end the bans on travel from several majority-Muslim countries.
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In an effort to cure the US foreign policy, President-elect Biden has solemnly declared he will end Trump’s policy ‘America First’ as a guiding principle of the US’s foreign policy. President Biden is committed to repair relationships with US allies, particularly with the NATO alliance. He would sign up for another five years of the only surviving nuclear arms treaty with Russia and double down on American commitments to NATO after four years of threats from President Trump to withdraw from the alliance, which guided the West through the Cold War. As well, it is expected a restart of relationship with China, while Biden has promised to make Russia to pay a price for its interference to the US elections. Biden presidency has to endure a bumpy ride on the path to restore the international reputation of the US and its commitments to the multilateralism. Reversing Trump’s policies is challenging, but leading the way forward to enact the necessary changes to overcome the future challenges, could be twice as much challenging.
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Dr Lorenc Xhaferraj is leading the Esharelife Think Tank. He is a former diplomat, with a rich experience in multilateral diplomacy, governments and international organizations’ affairs. He follows with increased interest multiple policy areas such as current international affairs, counter-terrorism and violent extremism, human rights, UN Global Goals, economic and environmental issues, clean energy and public diplomacy. He holds a PhD in European Studies and shares an equal passion for current international affairs and the latest trends in the information technology sector. Follow us:
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