The United Kingdom and Italy’s economic relations after Brexit by esharelife

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The United Kingdom and Italy’s Economic Relations after Brexit

Dr Maurizio Bragagni Dr Lorenc Xhaferraj BA Susanna Gigante ________ September 2021

_________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Table of Contents Introduction

Post Brexit legal measures taken by Italy

UK and Italy’s relationship since Brexit

Political cooperation Economic cooperation

8 10

Historical data on UK-Italy trade

Current UK-Italy trade indicators

Total trade

Trade in goods by commodity (ONS)

Trade in services by service type (ONS)

Trade in goods by UK countries and English regions (HMRC)

UK Market Share (ONS and UNCTAD)

Number of VAT-registered businesses trading goods (HMRC)

Foreign Direct Investment with Italy (ONS)

Ease of doing business (World Bank)

Economic data and projections for Italy (IMF)

Top goods traded with the world by Italy (UN Comtrade)

Top goods exported to the world by Italy in 2020:

Top services traded with the world by Italy (ITC Trade Map)

Top services exported to the world by Italy in 2020:

Data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity

Current economic development trends

Italy

Post Brexit bilateral agreements

Conclusion

Bibliography

Get involved with Esharelife

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Introduction The UK formally left the EU on 31 January 2020, following a public vote held on the EU referendum in June 2016. The three-and-a-half-year long preparation process to Brexit has allowed the EU institutions to prepare for the UK withdrawal and anticipate some of its likely consequences. The formal process had begun on 29 March 2017, with the UK’s notification of its intention to withdraw from the Union (Brexit). To ensure the United Kingdom’s orderly exit from the EU, a Withdrawal Agreement1 was subsequently negotiated: concluded on 17 October 2019, it was ratified on 30 January 2020. The agreement provided for a transition period up to 31 December 2020, during which time EU law continued to apply to the United Kingdom, including free movement of people and capital, as regards access to financial services. At the end of this period, European law ceased to apply in the UK, now considered a third country to all intents and purposes. On 1 January 2021, the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)2 governing bilateral relations, which was negotiated in the interim, entered into effect. In the area of financial services, the agreement provides for the drawing up of a Memorandum of Understanding on regulatory cooperation, but the degree of reciprocal access to the markets is lower than previously permitted within the EU under the principle of mutual recognition. In fact, the relevant European and national laws now regulate access to the market. In Italy the provisions of the Consolidated Laws on Banking and Finance apply to authorisations for banking and financial intermediaries and payment service providers of third countries. To safeguard financial stability, the European Commission has also adopted two equivalence decisions for the central counterparties and central securities depositories of the United Kingdom, valid for 18 and 6 months respectively3.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A22020A0131%2801%29 https://ec.europa.eu/info/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en 3 https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/stabilita-finanziaria/informazionibrexit/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1 _________________________________________________________________________________ 2

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Following the 2016 referendum, EU institutions started to adopt ‘counter-measures’ to deal with the challenges of the UK withdrawal. The drivers of institutional adaptation are different—and would certainly deserve further theoretical exploration—but EU institutions and actors may seek to protect themselves from the ‘malign’ influence of a soon-to-be third country; they may fear the organisational consequences of withdrawal and seek minimizing potential disruptions; they may be guided by the willingness to ‘punish’ disintegration and prevent further exits. Whatever the reason, the EU has been able to prepare for the departure of a large member state, making the impact of its actual departure less onerous4. As soon as Brexit was a reality, many started predicting the effect of it on their own country. For example, for Italy it was predicted it will attach a high priority to preserving the integrity of the basic principles that govern the EU (including the institutional balance) and to the possibility of the Eurozone integrating further5. This paper will analyse how Brexit and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic have affected the economic relationship between the UK and Italy. The main conclusion will be that, overall, the economic relationship between the UK and Italy has not been strongly affected by Brexit, but combined with ongoing Covid-19, it has significantly reduced the trade volumes between the two countries.

Assessing What Brexit Means for Europe: Implications for EU Institutions and Actors, available at https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/issue/viewIssue/241/PDF241 5 https://sep.luiss.it/sites/sep.luiss.it/files/Micossi_PB_10242016.pdf _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Post Brexit legal measures taken by Italy The European and Italian institutions6 and authorities have acted to ensure an adequate degree of preparedness for the United Kingdom’s departure from the Union. In Italy, Decree Law 183/2020 (in Italian only) contains transitional measures designed to guarantee the continued provision of services and safeguards for customers of British intermediaries operating in Italy that have applied for the relevant authorisations. The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, completed on 31 December 2020 with the expiry of the transition period envisaged under the Withdrawal Agreement, has significant implications for the provision of services to European customers by UK financial intermediaries. In view of this, the Italian government has introduced measures to safeguard the customers of UK intermediaries operating in Italy (see Article 22 of Decree Law 183/2020 – only in Italian7). In particular, there were introduced measures ensuring continuity in the provision of services by intermediaries that had already applied for a new authorisation to operate in Italy when the Decree Law entered into force, and the orderly management of contractual relations in cases where intermediaries are to cease operations. The Bank of Italy has issued two communications where the content of the above-mentioned measures is explained, highlighting the aspects of interest for UK intermediaries operating in Italy and for their customers, respectively. ▪ ▪

Communication to UK intermediaries operating in Italy on the provisions regarding Brexit contained in Article 22 of Decree Law 183/2020 (2 January 2021) Communication to customers of UK intermediaries operating in Italy (only in Italian; 2 January 2021)

The Bank of Italy has published a communication recalling the effects of the end of the transition period provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement and asking UK banking and financial intermediaries operating in Italy to provide customers with the appropriate information on the most sensitive aspects: (a) procedures and contact details for assistance, reports or complaints; (b) an alternative dispute resolution system; and (c) the applicable 6

https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/stabilita-finanziaria/informazionibrexit/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1 7

https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/stabilita-finanziaria/informazionibrexit/documenti/art_22_DL_183_del_31122020.pdf _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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deposit protection regime. UK intermediaries are also invited to complete, in an orderly manner, their Brexit-related plans, to limit the adverse effects of interrupting services for their customers and, in any case, to allow them to exercise their rights as regards the continuation, transfer or termination of existing contracts. ▪

Communication addressed to UK intermediaries ahead of the end of the transition period (15 December 2020).

To manage the legal effects of Brexit in terms of the finality of transfer orders carried out by Italian intermediaries in payment and settlement systems located in the United Kingdom, the Bank of Italy has adopted, in the implementation of Article 10, paragraph 5, of Legislative Decree 210/2001 (implementing the 'Settlement Finality Directive' 98/26 /EC), two measures, which are aimed at preserving the current conditions for the participation of Italian institutions in payment and securities settlement systems governed by English law. ▪

Measures pursuant to Article 10(5), of Legislative Decree 210/2001, and subsequent amendments (10 December 2020)

The Bank of Italy has published a Communication which invites the customers of UK financial intermediaries operating in Italy to verify that they have received adequate information on the consequences of Brexit for existing contractual relations. If this is not the case, it is suggested that customers contact their intermediary as soon as possible to obtain indications about the possibility of doing business in the future. ▪

Important information for the clients of UK-based financial institutions operating in Italy (9 November 2020).

The Bank of Italy has published a Communication which summarises the relevant features of the Italian third-country licensing regime, which will apply to all UK intermediaries once the transition period has ended, and urges all UK intermediaries operating in Italy to duly inform their clients about the actions they have taken in relation to Brexit and its consequences for existing contractual relationships: ▪

Communication containing instructions for UK intermediaries pursuant to the Withdrawal Agreement (29 April 2020). _________________________________________________________________________________

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In August 2019, the Bank of Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the United Kingdom's supervisory authorities that will ensure an adequate level of cooperation and an exchange of information between the authorities when, at the end of the transition period, EU legislation will no longer apply to the United Kingdom. ▪

Memorandum of Understanding between the Bank of Italy, the Bank of England/Prudential Regulatory Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority.

The Bank of Italy has called on British financial institutions operating in Italy to inform their Italian clients about the actions they have taken in relation to Brexit and its consequences for existing contractual relations. These institutions should continue to keep their Italian clients adequately informed during the transition period. ▪

Information to be provided to Italian customers by UK-based financial institutions operating in Italy (19 February 2019).

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UK and Italy’s relationship since Brexit

Political cooperation Relations between Italy and the United Kingdom have traditionally been very intense, and the positions taken by the UK on European affairs have often proved of crucial importance for Italy. Italy has spotted an opportunity created by Brexit. Defence was largely marginal in the negotiations between London and Brussels, thus allowing Italy and the UK to continue to cooperate, for example, with: the Panavia PA200 Tornado project, Eurofighter Typhoon, the sixth generation Tempest fighter, and other projects in the field of naval, land, aeronautical and missile defence. Italy carries out this collaboration through partly state-owned firms such as Leonardo, Avio Aereo, Elettronica and MBDA. With respect to strategic security and defence policy, Italy’s hope is that the UK will look to the EU and NATO to develop links rather than through stronger, direct links with key players such as France and Germany. Germany is also more willing to work bilaterally with the UK in security than in economic matters, as is Italy. The Italian and British governments are working together to prepare the world climate summit (COP26) scheduled for November in Glasgow, and to coordinate their respective presidencies of the G7 and the G20 in 2021. Energy transition, the fight against climate change, recovery from the pandemic and the promotion of multilateralism are the themes around which this collaboration revolves. However, it is on the issue of defence policy that Italy and the United Kingdom have shown the greatest determination to continue collaboration. The UK-EU Technical Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was greeted with relief and satisfaction in Italy. It raised hopes of a constructive future relationship with the UK. Yet Brexit never really entered into domestic political debate and the complex nature of the negotiations led Italian political actors to largely deal with the UK through the EU institutions. A particularly promising area for future relations between Italy and the UK is defence. The fact that this policy was largely absent from the TCA negotiations and that the EU itself leaves ample room for manoeuvre for member states makes it a particularly significant area of _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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possible future collaboration. Brexit never really became the model even for the most Eurosceptic parties, including the Lega and the Five Star Movement, and it is starting to appear in the rear-view mirror for Italian political leaders, as they look to craft a relationship that ensures Italy’s core economic and defence interests8.

EU-UK 2030, available at https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/EU-UK-2030-Report.pdf _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Economic cooperation According to the Italian Foreign Ministry’s economic observatory, in 2019 trade between the United Kingdom and Italy amounted to approximately €35.6 billion, of which approximately €25.2 billion were exports from Italy to the United Kingdom and €10.4 billion were imports. Italy is the tenth largest market for British exports and the UK is the fifth most important destination for Italian exports9. The Italian Embassy in London states that the main sectors in which Italy invests in the UK are energy (largely thanks to ENI and its subsidiaries), defence (represented primarily by the Leonardo group), vehicles (the Fiat Chrysler group) and electrical appliances (the Merloni group [branded Indesit], the Candy group [Hoover] and the De Longhi group [Kenwood]). Other Italian companies worth mentioning include Prysmian, Tratos, Seda Packaging Group, Bifrangi, Zambon (which acquired the British company Profile Pharma), Assicurazioni Generali, TerniEnergia, Green Network, Reflex&Allen, Mapei, Digital Bros, Kinexia, Laminazione Sottile, the Biscaldi group (which owns Tŷ Nant Spring Water) and JAS Worldwide. According to the Italian Trade Agency, Italian exports to the UK in 2019 rose by 4.2% relative to the previous year, continuing a positive trend that began in 2012, while imports from the UK fell by 3%. Italy’s top exports to the UK are mechanical equipment (£3.7bn in 2019), fashion and accessories (£2.6bn), vehicles (£2.3bn), agri-food (£1.9bn) and pharmaceuticals(£1.3bn). The UK’s top exports to Italy, meanwhile, are vehicles, pharmaceuticals, machinery and chemicals10. Italy paid little attention to the start of the Brexit process and even less in 2020, as the political focus was on the economic and social impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2019 the Italian government created an inter-ministerial task force for Brexit, which has remained in place even after the TCA was concluded, as numerous departments were engaged in the negotiations pre- and post-TCA. These include the Bank of Italy and the Italian Trade & Investment Agency (ICE).

Ibid https://amblondra.esteri.it/ambasciata_londra/en/i_rapporti_bilaterali/cooperazioneeconomica/cooperazione-economica.html _________________________________________________________________________________ 10

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However, the consequences of Brexit for trade and the Italian economy have been the central national concern throughout the Brexit process. Italian fears about the repercussions of Brexit for its agri-food sector and the way Brexit has cast uncertainty over the entire supply chain. Oil, cheese and wine are among the sectors most affected and Italian entrepreneurs fear, even more than duties, the increasing complexity associated with exporting to the United Kingdom. Conftrasporto, the association representing transportation interests, stresses that the logistics sector has also been severely affected because of increased transport costs, customs formalities and checks that slow the flow of goods both in and out of the United Kingdom11. Overall, Italian institutions and authorities took major steps to ensure that the country was appropriately prepared for Brexit. As mentioned above, throughout the years, the Bank of Italy12 has published numerous statements reminding customers of the effects of the end of the transition period and demanding that UK banking and financial intermediaries operating in Italy offer sufficient information on the most sensitive topics. A study by ICE, the Agency for the promotion abroad and the internationalisation of Italian companies, with Prometeia, forecasted the impact of Brexit on Italian trade, and showed that the overall loss for Italian exports could have been between €800m (4% of the total) and €4bn (21%), depending on the model of economic partnership that emerged. Nonetheless, as the Italian Embassy to the UK states13, in 2019 Italy was the UK’s ninth-largest trading partner. In fact, Italy is eighth on the ranking of the top countries from which the UK imports (£19.4bn in 2019), with a market share of 3.63% of the UK’s imports, and the seventh on the list of countries to which it exports. Meanwhile, the UK is tenth on the list of countries from which Italy imports and fifth among the countries to which it exports. Overall, Italy maintains a strong trade surplus with the UK (19.4bn of exports, a year-on-year growth of +4.2%, versus £9.7bn of imports, down 3% on 2018, giving Italy a surplus of £9.66bn), and Italian exports to the UK have grown continuously since 2012.

EU-UK 2030, available at https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/EU-UK-2030-Report.pdf https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/stabilita-finanziaria/informazionibrexit/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1 13 https://amblondra.esteri.it/ambasciata_londra/en/i_rapporti_bilaterali/cooperazioneeconomica/cooperazione-economica.html 12

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In addition to being Italy’s fifth-largest export market by volume (after Germany, France, the US and Spain), absorbing 5% of Italian exports in 2019, the UK is the second-largest by value, after the US. Furthermore, in a 2018 study, the European Committee of the Regions assessed the likely impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on regions and cities in the EU27. Some Italian regions figure among those EU regions that could be most affected by Brexit, especially in those sectors of machinery, textiles and furniture (for example, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and Marches)14. However, in a report by the Chamber of Deputies - Office for Relations with the European Union, dated 16th December 2020, a Brexit sensitivity index elaborated by the rating Agency Standard & Poor’s15 shows that Italy is one of the European countries least affected by Brexit.

In fact, for Italy, the application of the WTO commercial regime, with the most-favourednation clause, would determine high duties for those sectors with greater presence of small businesses, in particular for the agro-food sector, with an average duty of 13%, for clothing,

https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/38798c7b-387c-11e8-b5fe-01aa75ed71a1 https://www.spglobal.com/_media/documents/brexitsensitivityindex2019whohasthemosttolose_mar-282019.pdf _________________________________________________________________________________ 15

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with an average duty of 11%, and footwear, to which a duty of 9.1% would be applied; overall, fashion would be burdened with a duty of 10.1%. The financial sector is also pivotal to the bilateral economic relations between the two countries, especially in view of the fact that the City of London is one of the most important financial hubs in the world and is used as a base for European investment by many Asian and North American investors. A number of Italian banks operate on the British market, including Unicredit, Intesa-SanPaolo (which has recently opened a branch specialising in private banking), Banca IMI and Mediobanca. These banks and the acquisition of Borsa Italiana by the London Stock Exchange in 2007 are a crucial element of bilateral economic cooperation. The City is also home to numerous Italian private equity funds and family office funds.

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Historical data on UK-Italy trade United Kingdom exports to Italy was US$10.93 Billion during 2020, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade16, marking the lowest point for exports in the last 10 years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports/italy _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Italy exports to United Kingdom were US$25.65 billion during 2020, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade17. Additionally, based on ISTAT data relating to foreign trade in January 2021, Made in Italy exports have dropped by around 38.3 percent due to red tape hindering trade. Most exported Italian products to the UK are foods, transport, clothing, machinery and appliances and metals.

https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/exports/united-kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Current UK-Italy trade indicators This section’s data are current as of 19 August 2021 and they are provided by Department of International Trade18.

Total trade Total trade in goods and services (exports plus imports) between the UK and Italy was £33.0 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, a decrease of 23.6% or £10.2 billion from the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. Of this £33.0 billion: •

Total UK exports to Italy amounted to £13.8 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 (a decrease of 26.5% or £5.0 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020);

•

Total UK imports from Italy amounted to £19.2 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 (a decrease of 21.3% or £5.2 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020).

Italy was the UK’s 9th largest trading partner in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 accounting for 2.9% of total UK trade. In 2019, the outward stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the UK in Italy was £19.1 billion accounting for 1.3% of the total UK outward FDI stock. In 2019, the inward stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK from Italy was £6.8 billion accounting for 0.4% of the total UK inward FDI stock. Total trade in goods and services (exports plus imports) between the UK and Italy was £33.0 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, a decrease of 23.6% or £10.2 billion from the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, total UK exports to Italy amounted to £13.8 billion (a decrease of 26.5% or £5.0 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020).

Trade and Investment Factsheet, DIT, available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1011309 /italy-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2021-08-19.pdf _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Of all UK exports to Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, £8.3 billion (60.4%) were goods and £5.5 billion (39.6%) were services. In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, UK exports of goods to Italy decreased by 14.1% or £1.4 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020 while UK exports of services to Italy decreased by 39.8% or £3.6 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, total UK imports from Italy were £19.2 billion (a decrease of 21.3% or £5.2 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020). Of all UK imports from Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, £16.6 billion (86.4%) were goods and £2.6 billion (13.6%) were services. In the same period, UK imports of goods from Italy decreased by 12.7% or £2.4 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020 while UK imports of services from Italy decreased by 51.6% or £2.8 billion compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. This means the UK reported a total trade deficit of £5.4 billion with Italy, compared to a trade deficit of £5.7 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, the UK had a trade in goods deficit of £8.3 billion with Italy, compared to a trade in goods deficit of £9.3 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. Meanwhile, in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 the UK reported a trade in services surplus of £2.8 billion with Italy, compared to a trade in services surplus of £3.7 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2020. The charts below present a time series for trade between the UK and Italy for each year between 2011 and 2020:

The data that are presented in the charts above are given in the table below in £ billion: _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202 0

Value of total trade

33.4

32.1

34.4

36.7

36.5

40.0

41.7

45.1

44.6

34.6

Value of exports

15.5

13.9

15.5

16.0

16.6

18.3

18.5

20.3

19.3

14.5

Value of imports

17.8

18.2

18.9

20.7

19.9

21.7

23.2

24.8

25.3

20.2

Trade balance

-2.3

-4.3

-3.4

-4.6

-3.3

-3.4

-4.7

-4.6

-5.9

-5.7

In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021, Italy was the UK’s: •

•

th largest trading partner (accounting for 2.9% of total UK trade).

th largest goods trading partner (3.5% of UK goods trade).

–

th largest services trading partner (2.0% of UK services trade).

th largest export market (accounting for 2.5% of total UK exports).

th largest goods export market (2.8% of UK goods exports).

–

th largest services export market (2.1% of UK services exports).

th largest import market (accounting for 3.4% of total UK imports).

th largest goods import market (4.0% of UK goods imports).

–

th largest services import market (1.8% of UK services imports).

More timely data, for trade in goods only, show that UK exports of goods to Italy increased by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2021 compared to the same period the previous year. UK imports of goods from Italy increased by 2.3% over the same period. As these data are presented for the 12 months ending June 2021, the UK and its trading partners have been affected by lockdown and other measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Trade in goods by commodity (ONS) Based on the data provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS), the top 5 goods exported from the UK to Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 were: •

78M - Cars (£832.0 million or 10.0% of all UK goods exported to Italy)

•

33O - Crude oil (£549.4 million or 6.6%)

•

84 - Clothing (£333.1 million or 4.0%)

•

54 - Medicinal & pharmaceutical products (£331.5 million or 4.0%)

•

68 - Non-ferrous metals (£301.0 million or 3.6%)

The top 5 goods imported to the UK from Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 were: •

84 - Clothing (£1.1 billion or 6.9% of all UK goods imported from Italy)

•

54 - Medicinal & pharmaceutical products (£1.1 billion or 6.9%)

•

11 - Beverages (£860.9 million or 5.2%)

•

05 - Vegetables & fruit (£653.2 million or 3.9%)

•

74K - General industrial machinery (capital) (£648.2 million or 3.9%)

The chart below shows the top 5 products exported from the UK to Italy and the top 5 products imported to the UK from Italy, by value, in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021.

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Trade in services by service type (ONS) Based on the data provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS), the top 5 service types exported from the UK to Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 were: •

Financial (£1.4 billion or 25.0% of all UK services exported to Italy)

•

Other Business Services (£1.2 billion or 22.1%)

•

Travel (£1.1 billion or 19.4%)

•

Insurance and Pension (£458 million or 8.4%)

•

Transportation (£368 million or 6.7%)

The top 5 service types imported to the UK from Italy in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021 were: •

Other Business Services (£918 million or 35.1% of all UK services imported from Italy)

•

Travel (£557 million or 21.3%)

•

Transportation (£408 million or 15.6%)

•

Intellectual property (£185 million or 7.1%)

•

Construction (£157 million or 6.0%)

The chart below shows the top 5 service types exported from the UK to Italy and the top 5 service types imported to the UK from Italy, by value, in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2021.

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Trade in goods by UK countries and English regions (HMRC) The maps below show the value of UK goods exports and imports between each UK region and Italy in 2020, based on the data provided by Her Majesty Revenue and Customs (HMRC). The maps are shaded with the 3 UK regions with the highest amount of trade as the darkest colour, and the 3 UK regions with the lowest amount of trade as the lightest colour.

UK Market Share (ONS and UNCTAD) According to the latest data provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the UK’s market share for Italy in 2019 was as follows: • • •

The total UK market share in Italy was 4.3% in 2019 for goods and services. This is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2018. The UK market share in Italy was 2.9% in 2019 for goods only. This is a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2018. The UK market share in Italy was 9.5% in 2019 for services only. This is a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from 2018. _________________________________________________________________________________

Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Number of VAT-registered businesses trading goods (HMRC) Data provided by Her Majesty Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Businesses trading with Italy in 2019: •

In 2019, around 11,400 UK VAT-registered businesses exported goods to Italy, worth around £9.7 billion of exports.

•

In 2019, around 6,500 UK VAT-registered businesses imported goods from Italy, worth around £18.0 billion of imports. Businesses trading with the world in 2019: •

In 2019, around 159,600 UK VAT-registered businesses exported goods to the world, worth around £366.5 billion of exports.

•

In 2019, around 256,500 UK VAT-registered businesses imported goods from the world, worth around £543.5 billion of imports.

Foreign Direct Investment with Italy (ONS) Data provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS). UK outward FDI stock: •

In 2019, the stock of FDI from the UK in Italy was £19.1 billion, 34.5% or £4.9 billion higher than in 2018. In 2019, Italy accounted for 1.3% of the total UK outward FDI stock. • In 2019, the total UK FDI abroad was £1.5 trillion. In 2019, the top destination for UK FDI was the United States, accounting for 25.3% of the total UK outward FDI stock, followed by Netherlands (10.4%) and Luxembourg (6.4%). UK inward FDI stock: •

•

In 2019, the stock of FDI from Italy in the UK was £6.8 billion, 10.3% or £637 million higher than in 2018. In 2019, Italy accounted for 0.4% of the total UK inward FDI stock. In 2019, the total FDI in the UK was £1.6 trillion. In 2019, the top investor in the UK was the United States, accounting for 24.5% of the total UK inward FDI stock, followed by Netherlands (10.7%) and Luxembourg (8.6%). _________________________________________________________________________________

Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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The chart below shows FDI between the UK and Italy between 2010 and 2019:

The data that are presented in the charts above are given in the table below in £ billion:

Year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

UK outward FDI stock

12.9

12.3

10.8

10.2

11.2

11.0

13.5

13.4

14.2

19.1

0.9

2.2

8.9

13.5

4.2

7.7

5.7

4.8

6.2

6.8

UK inward FDI stock

Ease of doing business (World Bank) Note that this report shows data for 2019 in the latest ‘Doing Business 2020’ report, as all data were benchmarked in May 2019. •

In 2019, Italy was ranked 58

th for its ease of doing business. This was 7 places

worse than in 2018. •

th for its ease of doing business (1 place better

In 2019, the UK was ranked 8

than in 2018), behind New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, Denmark, South Korea, United States and Georgia. These rankings were based on their individual ease of doing business scores: • •

In 2019, Italy had an ease of doing business score of 72.9, compared to 73.0 in the previous year. In 2019, the UK had an ease of doing business score of 83.5, compared to 83.6 in the previous year. _________________________________________________________________________________

Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Economic data and projections for Italy (IMF) The following table presents economic statistics for Italy. Projections include assumptions of the effects of COVID-19 and may be subject to change in the future. Estimated data, as well as projections up to 2026, are presented in italics and are subject to revision.

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Top goods traded with the world by Italy (UN Comtrade) Data presented here show the top commodities traded to the world, not solely the UK, by Italy. These commodities are presented on a different classification from the earlier data by commodity from the ONS and should not be directly compared. Top goods exported to the world by Italy in 2020: Rank HS Commodity

USD billion

% of total goods exported

84 - Machinery and mechanical appliances

90.9

18.3%

87 - Vehicles other than railway or tramway stock

38.2

7.7%

30 - Pharmaceutical products

36.0

7.3%

85 - Electrical machinery and equipment

30.8

6.2%

39 - Plastics and articles thereof

20.4

4.1%

71 - Precious stones and metals

17.5

3.5%

73 - Articles of iron or steel

16.5

3.3%

94 - Furniture; bedding, mattresses, cushions

12.6

2.5%

90 - Optical, photographic, cinematographic and medical equipment

12.0

2.4%

62 - Articles of apparel and clothing, not knitted

11.7

2.4%

496.0

100.0%

All goods exported

Top goods imported from the world by Italy in 2020: Rank

HS Commodity

USD billion

% of total goods imported

84 - Machinery and mechanical appliances

43.2

10.2%

87 - Vehicles other than railway or tramway stock

37.9

9.0%

85 - Electrical machinery and equipment

35.7

8.4%

27 - Mineral fuels or oils, products of their distillation

35.6

8.4%

30 - Pharmaceutical products

28.5

6.7%

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39 - Plastics and articles thereof

18.4

4.3%

71 - Precious stones and metals

17.4

4.1%

29 - Organic chemicals

16.6

3.9%

72 - Iron and steel

14.9

3.5%

90 - Optical, photographic, cinematographic and medical equipment

12.9

3.1%

422.6

100.0%

All goods imported

Top services traded with the world by Italy (ITC Trade Map) Data presented here show the top service types traded to the world, not solely the UK, by Italy. Top services exported to the world by Italy in 2020: USD billion

% of total services exported

Rank

EBOPS Service Type

Other business services

27.2

31.1%

Travel

19.9

22.8%

Transport

10.6

12.1%

Telecommunications, computer, and ICT

8.6

9.8%

Financial services

7.6

8.6%

87.3

100.0%

All services exported

Top services imported from the world by Italy in 2020: USD billion

% of total services imported

Rank

EBOPS Service Type

Other business services

27.8

29.9%

Transport

17.8

19.1%

Telecommunications, computer, and ICT

12.3

13.2%

Financial services

11.4

12.2%

Travel

10.9

11.7%

All services imported

93.0

100.0%

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Data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity OVERVIEW In April 2021 the United Kingdom exported £726M and imported £1.42B from Italy, resulting in a negative trade balance of £693M. Between April 2020 and April 2021 the exports of the United Kingdom have increased by £250M (52.6%) from £476M to £726M, while imports increased by £507M (55.7%) from £911M to £1.42B. TRADE In April 2021, the top exports of United Kingdom to Italy were Cars (£92.4M), Gas Turbines (£52.7M), Blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins and cultures (£49.7M), Crude Petroleum (£28.6M), and Commodities not elsewhere specified (£25.6M). In April 2021 the top imports of United Kingdom from Italy were Packaged Medicaments (£70.2M), Vehicle Parts (£53.5M), Wine (£47.2M), Cars (£41.3M), and Other Furniture (£36.6M). ORIGINS In April 2021 the exports of United Kingdom were mainly from Dover (£281M), Avonmouth (£70.1M), London Heathrow Airport (£66.9M), East Midlands Airport (£44.5M), and Dover Eurotunnel (£39.2M), while imports destinations were mainly N/A. GROWTH In April 2021, the increase in the United Kingdom's year-by-year exports to Italy was explained primarily by an increase in product exports in Cars (£86.4M or 1.42k%), blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins and cultures (£47.9M or 2.69k%), and Gas Turbines (£44.8M or 563%). In April 2021, the increase in United Kingdom's year-by-year imports from Italy was explained primarily by an increase in product imports in Vehicle Parts (£41M or 328%), Cars (£39.8M or 2.67k%), and Delivery Trucks (£30M or 1.04k%)19.

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/gbr/partner/ita _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Current economic development trends UK The covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the social and economic fabric of the UK. The figures from the first quarter of 2020, after just one week of lockdown, showed the largest contraction in the economy since 2008 with trade, hospitality, communication, and transport being the sectors most affected. A June 2021 report submitted to the British parliament20 states that the magnitude of the recession caused by the pandemic is unprecedented in modern times. GDP declined by 9.8% in 2020, the steepest drop since consistent records began in 1948 and the most in over three hundred years on some estimates.

During the first lockdown, UK GDP was 25% lower in April 2020 than it was only two months earlier in February. Economic activity picked up over the spring and summer, reflecting the opening of the economy and pent-up demand from the first lockdown. Economists, however, noted that the economy has adapted well to the lockdowns, with a much smaller decline in economic activity recorded in early 2021, when GDP fell by 2.5% in January, than in the

Coronavirus: Economic impact, available at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp8866/

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lockdown of spring 2020. The level of GDP was 6% lower in March 2021 than before the pandemic.

As the economy has gradually reopened, economic indicators suggest a strong recovery is underway. This has led to upgrades to forecasts for GDP growth in 2021. The average forecast among economists is for GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021, up from 4.8% two months’ ago. The latest Bank of England forecast from early May is for GDP growth of 7¼% in 2021. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts GDP growth of 5.5% in 2021, although this was published in early March.

There is still uncertainty, however, over how strong and sustained the recovery will be, even assuming there won’t be a resurgence of the virus. Much will depend on how strong consumer spending is after the initial post-lockdown period. The Bank of England expects the level of _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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economic output as measured by GDP to regain its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021. Less optimistic forecasts don’t expect GDP to reach this level until 2022. A joint project by the Resolution Foundation thinktank and the London School of Economics said the UK was neither used to nor prepared for the challenges posed by the aftermath of Covid-19, Brexit, the net zero transition, automation and a changing population. The report warned the UK risks mirroring Italy’s economic woes unless it develops a strategy for tackling the five seismic changes that will shape a decisive decade for the country21. Sir Clive Cowdery, the Resolution Foundation’s founder and co-chair of the Economy 2030 inquiry said: “The UK’s recent record of weak productivity, stagnant living standards and high inequality makes a new economic approach desirable. It now faces a decisive decade, as the aftermath of Covid-19, Brexit and the net zero transition come together with major shifts in technology and demography. This matters far more than economics. Failing to rise to this challenge risks leaving the nation diminished and divided”.22 The 5 seismic changes identified by Economy 2030 inquiry report are: ●

Covid-19: More home working as a result of the pandemic will mean more lifestyle choices for professionals, but will force lower earners to find new jobs in new places.

●

Brexit: The UK will be able to utilise new policy freedoms but will also have to cope with higher costs of doing business with the EU, its main trading partner.

●

Net zero: Decarbonisation will provide economic opportunities, but action is urgent. The UK needs to go from installing almost zero heat pumps each year, to installing 3,000 every single day by 2030.

●

Technology: The arrival of new technologies will boost but also disrupt living standards, with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

The Economy 2030 Inquiry, available at https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/groundbreaking-new-inquiry-will-help-post-pandemic-britain-successfully-navigate-a-decade-of-unprecedentedeconomic-change/ 22 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/18/uk-economy-could-resemble-italy-by-end-of-2020scovid-brexit-climate _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

_____________________________________________________________________________

estimating that one in seven jobs could disappear as a result of automation in the next 15-20 years. ●

Demography: The ratio of people under the age of 20 or over 65 to those aged 20-64 is likely to increase from 72 per 100 to 79 per 100 between 2020 and 2030 – a faster projected change than in any other decade in the first half of the 21st century.

Also, the report noted that while the government had committed to “build back better”, “level up” and embrace “global Britain”, neither it, nor any major political party, had an economic plan for achieving those high-level objectives23.

Ibid _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Italy According to the Bank of Italy statement in June 2021,24 the Italian economy for 2021 year will grow by close to 5%, raising a previous forecast due to the improving coronavirus situation and an upward revision to first quarter gross domestic product data. The central bank's June projection, part of a regular forecasting exercise coordinated by the European Central Bank, is above the most recent estimate by the Italian government, which in April 2021 forecasted growth of 4.5%. On 1 June national statistics bureau ISTAT reported Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% from the previous quarter, hiking a preliminary estimate of a 0.4% contraction. The central bank's latest forecasts reflect a steadily improving outlook for the euro zone's third largest economy. The Bank of Italy estimates the 2022-year economic growth would ease to 4.5%, slightly below the Italian government's 4.8% projection. In both years, the expansion will be driven by investments, which will "rise significantly" thanks to reduced uncertainty connected to the COVID-19 pandemic, low interest rates and projects funded by the European Union's Recovery Fund. The Economist Intelligence Unit also predicts that economic activity will rebound strongly in 2021, after contracting by 8.9% in 2020, but a return to pre-crisis levels of GDP is unlikely before mid-2022. Support from EU institutions will mitigate financial risks25. According to ING26, labour market data for June 2021, turned out stronger than expected, combining a healthy expansion in employment and a decline in unemployment and the number of inactive people, pushing the unemployment rate down to 9.7% from 10.2% in May. The lifting of the redundancy ban for most industrial sectors starting in July might bring about some disillusion, but surviving short-work schemes will limit the scope for large setbacks for another couple of quarters. 24

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italian-economy-grow-around-5-this-year-says-central-bank-202106-11/ 25 https://country.eiu.com/italy 26 Italian GDP growth shifts gears in 2Q21, https://think.ing.com/articles/italy-gdp-growth-shifted-gear-in2q21/ _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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The strong GDP acceleration in the second quarter of 2021 was mainly attributed to: - Labour market improvements should have boosted private consumption - Investment should have benefited of recovery plan future boost

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Post Brexit bilateral agreements France, Italy and Germany, the three leading European powers, are each trying to reach bilateral post-Brexit agreements with the UK, after Britain said it was not interested in closer security and foreign policy cooperation with the EU. The behind-the-scenes discussion at ambassadorial and ministerial levels runs in contrast to some of the negative rhetoric from Downing Street about its approach to its EU partners. The discussions have focused on defence cooperation but go far wider and would be the first signs that the UK was capable of forging positive bilateral relations with its European partners. The Italian embassy in the UK also hopes Rome will reach an understanding or mini-treaty with the UK this year. The Italian deputy defence minister, Giorgio Mulè, claimed the UK’s recent integrated foreign and security review showed “a willingness to keep the British commitment to security in Europe high” 27. Mulè is looking at ways in which Italian domestic legislation can be adapted so that UK defence trade with Italy can be treated as trade with a like-minded partner and not simply as a third partner. Italy and the UK historically have cooperated closely on defence production, including on large products such as the EH 101 heavy helicopters. For years, Leonardo and its British counterpart BAE Systems have been working on the sixthgeneration fighter, the Tempest, the result of a bilateral collaboration that in turn has created larger industrial consortia. As president of the G20, Italy is also trying to dovetail its work on climate change with the UK, which is chair of the UN COP26 summit in Glasgow. Cooperation with the UK on foreign policy has also been made easier with the appointment of Mario Draghi as Italian prime minister. Although he is a staunch supporter of the EU, he is far more sceptical about links with Russia and China, the preference sometimes of Italy’s populist parties.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/31/france-italy-germany-brexit-deals-uk _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Conclusion Economists expect that Brexit will have damaging immediate and longer-term effects on the economies of the UK and at least part of the 27 other EU member states. In particular, there is a broad consensus among economists and in the economic literature that Brexit will likely reduce the UK's real per capita income in the medium and long term, and that the Brexit referendum itself damaged the economy28. Overall, Brexit caused a disruption within the European market, and negotiating agreements between the UK and EU countries has not been easy. However, as the “real Brexit” took effect as of 1 January 2021, at the time when the Covid-19 pandemic already for a full year was deeply interrupting the global supply chains and causing recession of world economies, it is difficult to assess what was the impact of Brexit in the current economic relations between Italy and the UK. Arguably, Italy showed a sufficient level of readiness, and the latest data on trade volumes between the two countries clearly demonstrate that its economic relationship with the UK seems not to be strongly affected by Brexit. On the contrary, the outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has had a significant impact on the economic situation of both countries. Lockdowns and uncertainty are weighing on activity, although government support has mitigated the effects on firms and households. The latest macroeconomic data show that both countries are on the path of a speedy recovery and the economic growth is 5% for Italy and slightly higher for the UK, at 5.5%. The trade between the two countries is recovering, too, and for 2021 Italy is the 9th trading partner of the UK, reaching almost the same rank Italy had in 2019.

Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most, available at https://www.piie.com/publications/workingpapers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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In April 2021, the increase in United Kingdom's year-by-year exports to Italy was explained primarily by an increase in product exports in Cars (£86.4M or 1.42k%), Blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins and cultures (£47.9M or 2.69k%), and Gas Turbines (£44.8M or 563%). In April 2021, the increase in United Kingdom's year-byyear imports from Italy was explained primarily by an increase in product imports in Vehicle Parts (£41M or 328%), Cars (£39.8M or 2.67k%), and Delivery Trucks (£30M or 1.04k%). In Italy, substantial job creation, especially for low-skilled, women and young workers, will return only in 2022, when an effective vaccine is expected to have been deployed widely, stimulating consumption and easing precautionary saving. Investment and exports are expected to recover gradually alongside the manufacturing sector. Supportive fiscal policy is resulting in rising public debt levels, but interest rates are projected to remain low. Economists warn that the UK is neither used to nor prepared for the challenges posed by the aftermath of Covid-19, Brexit, the net zero transition, automation and a changing population and Brexit will negatively impact the GDP in the medium and long term. In a post-Brexit era, as Italy has clearly expressed its interest to further strengthen bilateral cooperation with the UK in the defence sector, it is predicted that trade between the two countries in this sector will get a significant boost.

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Bibliography Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community2019/C 384 I/01, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:12019W/TXT(02) Ambasciata d’Italia Londra, “Economic bilateral relations”, available at https://amblondra.esteri.it/ambasciata_londra/en/i_rapporti_bilaterali/cooperazioneeconomica/cooperazione-economica.html Assessing What Brexit Means for Europe: Implications for EU Institutions and Actors, available at https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/issue/viewIssue/241/PDF241 Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most, available at https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-losesmost Brexit Sensitivity Index 2019: Who Has The Most To Lose?, available at https://www.spglobal.com/_media/documents/brexitsensitivityindex2019whohasthemostt olose_mar-28-2019.pdf Camera dei deputati Ufficio Rapporti con l’Unione Europea (2020) “La Brexit e i negoziati sull’accordo di partenariato tra l’UE e il Regno Unito”, 16 December 2020, available at https://www.camera.it/temiap/documentazione/temi/pdf/1105600.pdf?_1585218079190 Coronavirus: Economic impact, available at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/researchbriefings/cbp-8866/ EIU Country profile- Italy, available at https://country.eiu.com/italy EU-UK 2030, available at https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/EU-UK-2030Report.pdf European Committee of the Regions (2018) “Assessing the impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on regions and cities in EU27”, Publications Office of the European Union, 4 April 2018, available at https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/38798c7b387c-11e8-b5fe-01aa75ed71a1 Information on Brexit, available at https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/stabilitafinanziaria/informazioni-brexit/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1 Italy trade profile, available at https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports/italy _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org

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Italian GDP growth shifts gears in 2Q21, available at https://think.ing.com/articles/italy-gdpgrowth-shifted-gear-in-2q21/ Italian economy to grow around 5% this year, says central bank, available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italian-economy-grow-around-5-this-year-sayscentral-bank-2021-06-11/ France, Italy and Germany seek post-Brexit deals with UK, available at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/31/france-italy-germany-brexit-deals-uk Micossi, S. & Perissich, R. (2016) “An Italian Perspective on the Forthcoming Brexit Negotiations”, LUISS School of European Political Economy, Policy Brief, 24 October 2016, available at https://sep.luiss.it/sites/sep.luiss.it/files/Micossi_PB_10242016.pdf The Economy 2030 Inquiry, available at https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/pressreleases/ground-breaking-new-inquiry-will-help-post-pandemic-britain-successfullynavigate-a-decade-of-unprecedented-economic-change/ The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, available at https://ec.europa.eu/info/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperationagreement_en The Observatory of Economic Complexity, available at https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/gbr/partner/ita The UK trade profile, available at https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/exports/unitedkingdom Trade and Investment Factsheet, DIT, available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ data/file/1011309/italy-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2021-08-19.pdf UK economy could resemble that of Italy by end of 2020s, available at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/18/uk-economy-could-resemble-italy-byend-of-2020s-covid-brexit-climate

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Get involved with Esharelife Esharelife Think Tank, a branch of the Esharelife Foundation, is a nonprofit, independent, non-governmental organization, not associated with any political parties or businesses. It serves as an open forum where like-minded people can freely share their ideas and knowledge on global development issues and the future of our planet. Founded on giving back principles by a successful entrepreneur and CEO of a family run business, Esharelife Foundation is a charity organization with a sole mission to share life in the digital era. Its goal is to create new and support existing opportunities for people living in most disadvantaged areas of the world, to lift themselves out of poverty by empowering them to build a path towards a self-sufficient future. Esharelife Foundation supports infrastructure and social, cultural, and humanitarian projects, thanks to fundraising activities based around one of the noblest of human activities: the creation and appreciation of art. It does it through supporting education programs. It does it for children and young people worldwide – for those in developing countries and those in developed nations – and supports access to education for girls and women who are denied it. Get involved with Esharelife to help children in Kenya to get a better education and you will have the possibility become an Esharelife: Ambassador, Patron or Testimonial. You might wish to get involved by: • • • •

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Thank you for your interest and involvement with the Esharelife Foundation! _________________________________________________________________________________ Esharelife Foundation, Charity no. 1183101 Baird House, 15-17 St. Cross Street, London, EC1N 8UW Tel: +44 207 101 0741 Website: http://www.esharelife.org/thinktank Email: thinktank@esharelife.org