T.Magazine 18 APR 2021

SUNDAY April 18, 2021

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Page 3

3D printing allows you to make multiple changes at a low cost — Ovais Qureshi

2.5 % of Pakistan’s GDP is spent on the country’s education sector

DEFENCE & SECURITY

LAW & JUSTICE

Page 4

Page 8

Ditching the Russian deal would irreversibly harm India’s partnership — Andrew Korybko

Judicial overreach transforms the judicial role into that of legislation — Justice Shah

BEST LAID PLANS

By Naveed Hussain | Design by: Umar Waqas

After whipping up a political storm midway into Imran Khan’s tenure, the PDM has run aground almost. The Express Tribune dissects what went wrong with the multiparty opposition alliance and whether it was doomed from the start

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The Pakistan Democratic Movement has died an unceremonious death. While the Pakistan Peoples Party rang the death knells, the Awami National Party wrote the sorry epitaph to the opposition alliance that whipped up a political storm, which, at one stage, threatened to sweep away the beleaguered government.

For its supporters, the PDM’s demise must be painful because nobody gave a eulogy to celebrate its six-odd months’ momentous struggle to wrest back civilian control of power. More painful must be the ongoing rancorous exchanges and verbal dueling among the opposition politicians who had had each other’s backs until recently. The rare bonhomie has quickly evaporated into the thin air. And souring relations have laid bare old scars and reopened unhealed wounds.

The PDM’s undramatic collapse – not even conceivable only a few weeks ago – has left many scratching their heads about what went wrong with the alliance that had brought together 11 disparate parties to put up a formidable challenge to the government of Imran Khan, which they considered as an appendage of the miltablishment.

The PDM was a strange potpourri of right-wing politicoreligious groups, centrist and left-of-centre mainstream parties as well as secular nationalists. Supporters hailed it as a new political awakening to win “true democracy” in the country. But critics called it an unnatural alliance, doomed from the beginning. The government, meanwhile, mocked it as a tempest in a teapot stirred up by a “clique of the corrupt” in an effort to escape accountability for their financial shenanigans.

The PDM was not the first, and would not be the last,

The inclusive alliance owed its success to the political acumen of Fazl and the political naivety and self-aggrandisement of PM Khan

movement of its kind. It was the latest in a number of alliances cobbled together by political parties for the “restoration of real democracy” in a country mired in a chronic civil-military tug of war. The alliance was significant in more ways than one. Firstly, the PDM espoused a radical narrative of former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who is currently in London supposedly for the treatment of some undiagnosed illness. Sharif, who blames the military for his unceremonious exit from power, believes the miltablishment is responsible for the country’s current economic morass. And he believed the PDM could trigger radical changes in the nature of the state by shifting the centre of power from Rawalpindi to Islamabad.

He unleashed frontal attacks on the establishment – sometimes naming the generals – in his virtual addresses at the PDM events. His vitriol quickly stole the media spotlight. These tirades were unprecedented because Sharif was himself a protégé of military dictator Gen Ziaul Haq. And the miltablishment consistently played him off against other political parties, especially the PPP. Secondly, the PDM brought together almost all opposition parties – including bitter traditional rivals of the past – on one platform, leaving Prime Minister Khan politically isolated. The coming together of the PPP and the PML-N made the alliance a potent threat for the embattled government. At the same time, the PDM also provided an opportunity to peripheral nationalist groups from KhyberPakhtunkhwa and Balochistan – who, chronically disillusioned by the state, have traditionally treated Punjab as a synonym for the establishment – to speak to people in the heartland of Punjab. The inclusive alliance owed its existence partly to the political acumen of Maulana Fazlur Rehman and partly to the political naivety and narcissistic self-aggrandisement of Prime Minister Khan.

Thirdly, the PDM was virtually led by the PML-N, which has its bastion of power in Punjab, the home of the army brass and soldiery. This was the reason when Sharif amped up his anti-establishment rhetoric, Asif Ali Zardari took a dig at him: “My domicile does not offer me such immunity.”

And when Sharif explicitly accused two severing generals of “stealing” the 2018 elections for the PTI, Bilawal BhuttoZardari quipped: “I’m sure Mian Sahib has credible evidence to back up his allegations.” Liberal political observers agree

The governing party was convinced that internal contradictions would not allow the PDM to pose an existential threat that nationalist groups from smaller provinces were demonised as “traitors” only for voicing their disillusionment with the state, let alone saying things that Sharif says.

Fourthly, the PDM generated a lot of political momentum with successful power shows in major cities of the country. Its promise to banish the establishment from politics, fired up people’s imaginations and projected the PDM as a genuine opposition. The sky-high inflation and exorbitant consumer prices resulting from lack of governance and economic mismanagement added to the vocal popular support for the PDM. Meanwhile, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who is driven by deep-seated loathing of Prime Minister Khan, did not let the alliance slack off. These jalsas did not cause jitters, though government ministers would come out without fail to respond to the PDM criticism after every rally. The PDM demanded ouster of Prime Minister Khan. Their real target, however, were his military backers. Sharif and his political heir apparent Maryam Nawaz repeatedly said their struggle was not against the “selected prime minister” but against the “selector” – a not-so-veiled reference to the establishment.

The ruling party was convinced that internal contradictions would not allow the PDM to pose an existential threat to the government. It decided to let the alliance roll on and fizzle out. However, a shocking drubbing in the Senate elections threw the government off balance. Prime Minister Khan appeared clearly shaken during his televised address the next day. He decided to take a fresh vote of confidence from parliament to reassert his legitimacy.

The PDM relished its success. Not for too long, though. Its

leaders started squabbling publicly over the spoils. And the subsequent defeat of their candidate for Senate chairman’s slot set off a blame game within the alliance as all component parties looked askance at each other. The defeat was embarrassing because the alliance had clear numerical superiority in the house. And this is what led to the PDM’s ‘implosion’. But critics believe a number of factors led to the falling apart of the nascent alliance.

Firstly, the PDM was fraught with chronic distrust, especially between its two main component parties. The PPP and the PML-N had an unenviable relationship in the past.

And senior leaders from both parties made no secret of this mutual distrust. Khawaja Asif said in a televised talkshow that he was unable to “trust this gentleman, Asif Zardari”, even if tried to. Similarly, Aitzaz Ahsan would openly express his loathing of the ‘untrustworthy’ Nawaz Sharif. While the PML-N and the JUI-F pushed for bringing down the whole system by resigning en masse from the assemblies before marching on the capital, the PPP did not agree. It had a lot at stake.

PDM was fraught with distrust, especially between its two main component parties. PPP and PML-N had an unenviable relationship Zardari did not want to give up his party’s government in Sindh, which has traditionally been the PPP’s political powerhouse. He knew that once out of power, it would be difficult for the PPP to reclaim Sindh, where the PTI has been making inroads. Zardari also knew that his party’s political survival hinges on its presence in power. The PPP flaunts the 18th constitutional amendment, which reversed a military ruler’s attempts to centralise power in the indirectly elected office of the presidency, as its achievement.

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COVER STORY

The party fears the miltablishment wants to roll it back through the PTI government. The PPP knew that it could protect the 18th amendment only by staying within the assemblies.

Secondly, Sharif went on the offensive against the establishment like no mainstream politician ever did before. For the PPP, Sharif’s new narrative was too perilous to espouse. Sharif is full of bitterness for the miltablishment, which he blames for all his woes. And in the PDM, he found an ideal platform to settle personal score while purportedly struggling for civilian supremacy.

“None of them is a Lenin, a Mao, a Che, or a Ho Chi Minh who can change the system,” journalist Wusat Ullah Khan once rightly summed up He went too far by directly accusing the army top brass for toppling his government and installing their ‘puppet’ Imran Khan, through a ‘rigged election’. He earned a lot of brownie points, especially on social media, though some political analysts called him a ‘political suicide bomber’. Sharif tried to impose his narrative on the entire PDM. And he found willing buyers in the marginalised nationalist groups and the JUI-F, which is desperate to bring down the system it does not have a share in. The PPP saw Sharif using the PDM to hog the limelight.

And it grew increasingly wary.

Thirdly, Maryam used the PDM as a spring-

on the “incompetence” of the government’s economic team, but it would not share how it would pull the country’s economy out of the current morass. The major parties took the smaller nationalist groups in tow, but they would not say how they would assuage their festering grievances and alleviate their sense of marginalisation, exclusion and alienation. While the alliance ostensibly campaigned for rule of law and supremacy of the Constitution, its politico-religious leader has a parochial worldview, which, I’m sure, would not be acceptable to a party like the PPP, which fashions itself liberal and secular.

board for the formal launch of her political career. Making the most of Shehbaz Sharif’s absence, Maryam carried herself as the de facto president of the PML-N. She also rejigged the inner sanctum of the party and surrounded herself with a new coterie of yes-men. Critics say she might be a good crowd-puller at public rallies, but she lacks political acumen, and her way of politics is crude and crass. Her struggle against Prime Minister Khan and his so-called “backers” appears to be driven more by personal vendetta than politics. She would not even listen to the voices of reason within her own party. And therein lies the rub. She is leading her father’s party into a dead-end street, assuming she has not done that already.

Fourthly, a movement for the “restoration of real democracy” appears to be a joke in Pakistan.

Or a ruse used by political parties when they are denied their share in power. In our country, democracy is still wedded to personality cults and political dynasties, which are the biggest obstacle in the way of developing a true democratic culture. The young scions and political heirs of these dynasties are constrained by the interests of their old generations, which binds them to the status quo. And these parties would do whatever their leaders say. “None of them is a Lenin, a Mao, a Che, or a Ho Chi Minh who can change the system. They are the kind of politicians who are satisfied with momentary signals from the establishment if it gestures that it will stay neutral in the power struggle,” journalist Wusat Ullah Khan once rightly summed up Pakistani politicians in his talk show.

And lastly, the PDM had come together to oust the ‘puppet’ government of Prime Minister Khan and send his “backers” back to the barracks. But it did not have a game plan for what it would do afterwards. The alliance cashed in

The major parties took the smaller nationalist groups in tow, but they would not say how they would assuage their festering grievances Some would suggest it is too early to write off the PDM. The exit of the PPP and the ANP might have dented the PDM but not necessarily spelt doom for the alliance. The Maulana and Sharif might try to resuscitate it, but the PDM is all but clinically dead. Prime Minister Khan has survived a scare, a formidable challenge to his government midway into its tenure. He should be thanking his lucky stars. Khan shall consider it a new lease on life and try to deliver on the promises he had made in the run-up to the 2018 elections. Or else, he would need no PDM to spell doom for his political career.

A brief history of PDM 20th September, 2020: At an All Parties Conference, the opposition parties announce the formation of the PDM and demand the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan

16th October, 2020: In its first show down against the PTI government, PDM hold a rally at Jinnah Stadium in Gujranwala

3rd October, 2020: JUI-F Chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman is officially appointed head of the PDM

24th January, 2021: Rumours of a discord within the alliance begin to emerge after PML-N’s Ahsan Iqbal disagrees with PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s recommendation of tabling a no-confidence motion in parliament instead of organising protest rallies across the country to remove the ruling party from power

25th October, 2020: PDM hold its third rally at Ayub stadium in Quetta despite concerns over a possible terror attack

18th October, 2020: PDM leaders Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Maulana Fazlur Rehman address a packed crowd at Bagh-e-Jinnah in Karachi

March 16, 2021: Clear lines in the sand are drawn by both parties as PPP refuses to resign from assemblies while the PML-N refuses to recall Nawaz Sharif from London

25th March, 2021: Maula Fazlur Rehman attempts to broker peace between the PPP and PML-L amid rising tensions after PPP’s appointment of Yousaf Raza Gilani as Senate opposition leader appointment

March 19, 2021: Speculation is further spurred on about a split within the PDM alliance after a postponement of the scheduled March 26 antigovernment long march is announced

22nd November, 2020: PDM hold a rally in Peshawar and promise to send the PTI-led government packing

by January. The rally is held despite a ban on public gatherings due to rising Covid-19 cases

12th January, 2021: Top leaders of PDM hold another anti-PTI rally in Malakand

8th December, 2020: An FIR is registered against PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz and other party leaders for holding multiple corner meetings in Punjab under sections pertaining to the Punjab Public Order Maintenance Ordinance, Punjab Infectious Disease Ordinance, Punjab Sound Systems Act and Punjab Regulation and Control of Loudspeakers and Sound Amplifiers Ordinance

4th April, 2021: Amid deepening rifts, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, while addressing a rally in Larkana,announces he is ready to go solo in fight to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government

26th March, 2021: Fissures between the two major PDM parties, PPP and PML-N, become more visible as PML-N leader Ahsan Iqbal publicly critises Gilani’s appointment and calls the move “against the objectives of the PMD.”

5th April, 2021: PDM serves showcause notices to PPP and ANP for seeking support from the BAP

6th April, 2021: Awami National Party formally announces its withdrawal from PDM saying that they feel the alliance has been ‘hijacked’ by some members for their own interests

11th April, 2021: Bilawal Bhutto Zardari tears up the show-cause notice issued by PDM

12th April, 2021: PPP officially quits all PDM offices

Not the first of its kind Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD)

8th February, 1981 — To oust the military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq, Benazir Bhutto forms MRD and is joined by other prominent parties including Awami National Party, Pakistan Muslim League (Khwaja Khairuddin group), Pakistan Democratic Party, Tehreeke-Istiqlal, Awami Tehreek, Jamiat-e-Ulema-eIslam, and Mazdoor Kissan Party

1984-1985: Benazir Bhutto and MRD boycott 1984 presidential referendum and 1985 election

Short-lived partnership August 24th,1988 — MRD is dissolved after the death of General Zia-ul-Haq

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days is how long the PDM sustained itself with the PPP in tow

Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD)

December 2000: ARD is formed with 15 political parties including PPP and PML-N after the 1999 military coup led by General Pervez Musharraf

March 2007-2008: The alliance launches anti-Musharraf campaign amidst growing criticism against Musharraf after the latter demands resignation of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry

May 2006: Former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif sign the Charter of Democracy while in exile

December 2007: PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif ventures into Naudero to discuss way forward for the alliance against President Pervez Musharraf Asif Ali Zardari and lays wreath on Benazir Bhutto’s grave

2008: ARD is finally disbanded after it fails to mobilise support, and PML-N and PPP contest elections separately Photos: Agencies

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

THE 3D REVOLUTION

By Nabil Tahir

Although the technology has been around for decades, recent years have demonstrated the versatility of 3D printing as it provides solutions for fields as diverse as health, education and heritage

Think of a world where you can create household items, toys for your kids and out-of-date spare parts by yourself.

No longer do you have to scour markets online and offline to look for the obscure items you need. All you have to do is get some raw plastic or rubber, feed it to a 3D printer, input the design for your model using CAD software and let technology take care of the rest.

We now live in a three-dimensional wonderland. The revolutionary 3D printing technology was introduced in the 1980s to make 3D models not by using paper and ink but instead by using solid materials like plastic and rubber for printing, and to produce a solid 3D model of an object. Now after nearly 40 years, Pakistan is finally adopting the technology, not only for creating objects for the home but to use the technology on an industrial, educational, health and engineering level too.

The reason for its recent popularity is that the creation of a 3D printed object is achieved using additive processes where successive layers of material are laid down until the object is created. Each of these layers are a thinly sliced cross-section of the object.

3D printing is the opposite of molding, which involves cutting or hollowing out a piece of metal or plastic with, for example, a milling machine. A 3D printer enables you to produce complex shapes using less material and less time than traditional manufacturing methods while making an uncountable number of changes to the design itself.

The older molding technology is still used by many largescale manufacturers because while 3D printing is more convenient for prototypes, if you are looking to make more than 100 pieces a day then injection molding is still more reliable.

Still, the use of 3D printing is not limited to just the industries but is also being used in a number of fields. Two Karachibased university students have recently begun a 3D printing firm, ‘Viscous,’ that specialises in 3D printing, designing, scanning, product development and reverse engineering.

“There are many people who are just using this technology to print limited items and are not using it for engineering, healthcare or educational purpose. As a 3D printing firm, we focus on innovations that we can bring through 3D printing,” said Viscous CEO Ovais Hussain Qureshi.

3D printing makes it possible to produce objects with more complex structures than traditional manufacturing methods “We were working on finding new ways to use our 3D technology. At the same time, hospitals needed splitter valves for ventilators so we decided to make a model to see if it could work. It turned out to be a success and we were able to provide them the exact size they needed,” said Qureshi. “There are different diameter openings of the valves, which control the amount of oxygen can be passed through. The valves are installed at the output of the ventilators and then the ratio of oxygen is controlled through different sizes of valves rather than using mechanical and electrical valves.”

Not only did they produce these splitters and provide them to the hospitals in Karachi but they also created prototype masks for further reproduction. “We created the 3D design of the masks and then printed them. They were not wearable but from that model, we were able to modify the design and then make a mold out of it for mass production,” he said, adding that the molds cost a lot so only after a client is satisfied with the prototype, should they take the plunge and create the mold. Viscous also did the same for face shields.

Perhaps more intriguingly, 3D printing has also found an application in the realm of surgery. By using a computed tomography scan (CT scan) of a person, his or her internal 3D model can be created. “You often hear that a surgical procedure was unsuccessful due to complications during the procedure. However, with a 3D model, which can be created with the help of a CT scan, surgeons can carry out a pre-surgical practice on the model to minimise the occurrence complications during the actual procedure,” Qureshi said.

help students to learn better. When a future scientist or engineer, doctor or mathematician can get the feel of the actual model they have built, it can increase their creativity and enthusiasm. Using 3D printing allows educators to provide students designs and models that make for a rich learning experience and bring education from computer screens and books into students’ hands. A 3D printed model can include impressive details that are durable and precise, allowing students to bring turn their imagination into reality. They are able to measure, hold, bend, fold and improve their creation. This means when these students will seek employment, they will already have the experience their managers and supervisors were only able to learn on the job. Giving an example from a research paper that they made on 3D printing use for educational institutions, Qureshi said, “Math students would have studied x-axis and y-axis in class but what if a teacher has the actual model with x, y and z-axis.?”

“If a medical student gets the model of the body parts, they will one step closer to knowing what these organs feel like in real life, even before they step into a hospital,” he added.

and can lose their form from the heat and environmental effects,” he said.

Following this limitation, the Punjab IT Board of (PITB) recently contacted Alpha Rubber and Plastic Works, a Lahorebased company that manufactures auto parts, to manufacture the connector (used inside ventilators) by using the 3D printer prototype.

Osama Usman, head of the private firm, said that the company developed a splitter that connects to the ventilator hoses and supplies oxygen to two to four patients at once and may be used multiple times.

He said the part was initially being manufactured by the PITB using the 3D printer technology, a time-consuming and costly procedure.

Resuscitating the past Many valuable items have been declared heritage and are kept under tight security to avoid causing damage to them. “With 3D printing, the government can create the original item prototype and place it for the public to see it. This will help in keeping the original product safe and also still give the public the chance to view them,” said Qureshi.

With jewelry for instance, 3D printing has been used for a

Refining the complex

“We have been using this technology since 2016 after my friend Anas Niaz and I completed our bachelor’s degree in the field of Mechatronics, Robotics and Automation Engineering,” he said. “We have been working on various prototype and reverse engineering to try out different things that can be done through 3D printing.”

3D printing to the rescue During the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic, hospital equipment such as ventilators became extremely essential around the world. The number of available ventilators was not enough to keep up with the ever-rising number of patients. In this situation, using a splitter to divide the airway of the machine, one hospital ventilator was used for more than one patient.

While there is nothing new about the splitters for ventilators themselves, their proprietary nature put a question mark on their cost and availability. This is where 3D printing came to the rescue. In Pakistan, Qureshi and Niaz made a 3D model of the splitter that the hospitals were able to use in order to be able treat multiple Covid-19 patients at the same time.

Photos: Viscous

While creating a product, 3D printing makes it possible to produce objects with much more complex structures than traditional manufacturing methods that are used for automobile or any type of engineering work. The engineers first have an idea of what the final result will look like; what will be its aesthetics, look and feel. “So we start with a design on a paper, then that is converted into the digital 3D design and then is printed to see how it looks physically,” he said.

Giving an example, he said if you were to design a side mirror or headlight of a car then you would first draw the design on paper, which would then be converted into digital format and printed. “Once we are satisfied with the design itself, then we decide to mass produce it. 3D printing allows you to make multiple changes at a low cost instead of you having to change the mold over and over again.

This also helps in creating the perfect flawless designs,” he said. 3D printing also helps the building designers to experiment with shapes and geometries in design that may not be financially viable with existing building techniques. This way we can see how engineers approach industrial problems and how 3D printing can improve upon existing solutions.

A tool for learning It is a well-established fact that fun and engaging classrooms

We were working on finding new ways to use our 3D technology. At the same time, hospitals needed splitter valves for ventilators so we decided to make a model to see if it could work Viscous CEO Ovais Hussain Qureshi

long time through a process known as ‘rapid prototyping’ where a 3D model is used to produce a wax mold for the final product.

The technology, as cutting edge as it is, is also breathing new life into old machines and tools. Deemed junk due to deterioration of their parts and non-availability of spares, 3D printing married with reverse engineering allows for cheap production of any components that need to be replaced.

The limits of technology Although you can create anything from a 3D printer, the technology still has its limits. “You cannot use it for mass volume manufacturing. That can only be done using conventional methodologies,” said Qureshi.

Explaining the limitations, he said that through molds, you can produce more than 1,000 masks in an hour, but with a 3D printer, it will take around three to four hours to produce one mask. “So this is good for prototyping but not for regular use. The models made from 3D printing are not long-lasting

3D printing has also found an application in surgery.

By using CT scan of a person, his or her internal 3D model can be created Policy and regulation Qureshi, who has been in 3D printing for a long time, says that there are no regulations of 3D printing, and there are many industries that are still thinking about adopting this technology. “Currently, 3D printing is not allowed in public and can be used by manufacturers or educational institutes.

Government institutions and organisations have a 3D printer where you can use them but the government is in the process of making rules and regulations for this industry,” he said.

Talking about the technology and policymakers, he said that the people involved in making policies on 3D printing are well aware of what 3D printing is and how it can help.

“We just have to wait for it to get regulated, and then the technology can penetrate further,” he said.

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DEFENCE & SECURITY

The missile trap

By Zeeshan Ahmad

Design by: Mohsin Alam

India, like Turkey, is moving ahead with its purchase of advanced S-400 air defence systems from Russia. For Turkey, that move culminated in sanctions from the US. Could India face the same?

Islamabad

China

Delhi

Delhi would be sacrificing a lot for not much in return: a SAM system, with lots of political strings attached, and China strengthened because the Quad would become more vulnerable

Nepal

ASPI Senior Analyst Dr Malcolm Davis

Pakistan

India

DEEP DEPENDENCE

Projected coverage bubble with five S-400 units

Bangladesh

70% of India’s military inventory is of Russian origin

Myanmar

TYPES OF EFFECTIVE TARGETS Strategic aircraft

Arming a military seems simple enough to most of us. Sure, there are questions of funding and availability, but once those are sorted, the rest should be easy, right?

Military authorities just figure out what they need and the relevant departments just shop around for the best deal possible?

In truth, though, defence deals are rarely, if ever, straightforward. The entire process is deeply mired in politics, even for nations that appear to have no shortage of willing suppliers.

In recent months, one big-ticket defence item – a Russian air defence system known as the S-400 – has become a bone of contention for US planners. This is not so much for how capable the system is or whether the US fears facing it in action. The headache, rather, comes from its appeal to certain nations the US would very much like to keep in its camp in terms of defence cooperation.

Three nations in particular, namely Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia, have made no secret about their interest in the Russian developed system. Two of those – India and Turkey – have deals in place to integrate it into their defence arsenal.

Towards the end of last year, the US government slapped sanctions on Turkey despite its status as major Nato partner after it went ahead with its purchase of the S-400 system.

With India poised to do the same, the question is will US do the same especially as it reorients its entire focus against China. Especially as India is already part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with US, Japan and Australia – which some observers see as the beginning of a new Pacific-oriented ‘Nato’. The Express Tribune put the question before both local and foreign analysts to learn how a single military procurement could have far-reaching geopolitical ripples.

$2.5 billion

Electronic warfare Spy aircraft Airborne early warning and control aircraft

Major investment

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The Grumman EA-6 Prowler deck based electronic warfare spy aircraft The Lockheed U-2 high-altitude spy plane

The Boeing E-3 Sentry long-range airborne early warning and control aircraft

Tactical aircraft

The Grumman E-2 Hawkeye deck based airborne early warning and control aircraft The McDonnell Douglas F-15 all weather 4th generation fighter aircraft The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon multirole 4th generation fighter of the USAF The Lockheed Martin, Boeing F-22 Raptor 5th generation fighter aircraft

The Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk subsonic tactical stealth attack aircraft The Northrop B-2 Spirit heavy strategic stealth bomber

A tale of two nations

Strategic cruise missiles The Raytheon/McDonnell Douglas BGM-109 Tomahawk multi-purpose subsonic long-range cruise missile

Aeroballistic missiles Missiles

In 2017, Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan brokered a deal reportedly worth $2.5 billion with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for the S-400 missile system. His intentions were almost immediately met with criticism from US and Western officials, who deemed integrating a non-Nato air defence system into Nato’s air defence net ‘unthinkable’.

As Turkey began receiving deliveries of its first S-400 batteries, the US first removed the country from the programme to develop and receive the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet. As Turkey firmly entrenched in its decision to operate the Russian SAM, in December last year, the US imposed sanctions on the nation under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

In recent years, the US has made several overtures to India as it seeks to build its military capabilities in a bid to contain China. Big-ticket defence items India has received from the US include the P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, C-17 military transport aircraft and state-of-the-art AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. The US has also offered the Indian Air Force F-15, F-16 and F/A-18 fighter jets.

Even so, India’s interest in S-400 predates Turkey’s move. India signed an agreement with Russia to receive the missile system at a 2016 BRICS summit. A formal deal was signed a year after the Turkish deal in 2018. According to a report published

by The Hindu earlier this week, the deal remains on track and India is set to receive its first batteries in November.

According to Dr Davis, a major concern for the US was the S-400’s ability to detect

The General Dynamics/Grumman EF-111A Raven electronic warfare aircraft

Stealth aircraft

was the value of the S-400 procurement deal Turkey signed with Russia “[But] The S-400 is a ‘system of systems’ meaning there are other shorter range missiles which will protect the longer range systems, and its also designed to be effective against stealth aircraft,” he added. “Acquiring S-400 would give a state longrange air defence, and in the case of India, deployment of a S-400 capability would allow it to control the airspace over most of Pakistan if three battalions were deployed in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and the Indian-side of Jammu-Kashmir. If deployed against China it would significantly boost India’s ability to defend its northern border across the Himalayas. That may be a more pressing concern than imposing control of the air over Pakistan for Delhi.”

According to Moscow-based American political analyst Andrew Korybko, the S-400 system’s capabilities are not just limited to targeting ballistic and cruise missiles, and enemy aircraft. “Recent Russian tests have also reportedly proven that it’s capable of destroying incoming hypersonic missiles too,” he shared. “They are coveted because they can equip the recipient with the best air defense capabilities presently available at this time and likely for the foreseeable future.”

The Rockwell B-1 Lancer supersonic swing wing bomber The General Dynamics F-111 Raven swing wing aircraft

The S-400 mystique So, what is the S-400 and why is it so coveted by some nations? On the surface, in simple terms, it is a missile-based air defence system that is can shoot down aerial threats from the ground within a very potent range.

According to Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Dr Malcolm Davis, however, there is much more to the S-400 than just that. “The S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name SA-21 Growler) is a ‘double digit SAM’ [that is] part of a family of very highly capable ground-based air defence (GBAD) systems designed for long-range air defence and which also has a limited BMD capability against short-range ballistic missile systems,” he explained.

“It’s key advantages are very long-range – approximately 400km and at very high altitudes, with the system able to attack multiple targets simultaneously. A typical S-400 battalion in the Russian military would have eight launchers and 32 missiles as well as a mobile command post. The system has been in service since 2007, and is gradually replacing older S-300 systems.”

The Boeing B-52 Stratofortress long-range intercontinental strategic missile bomber

The Boeing AGM-69 SRAM (Short Range Attack Missile) guided short-range-air-to-ground aeroballistic missile

Medium-range ballistic missiles According to the classification accepted in Russia in line with the INT treaty, ballistic missiles with a range of 1000 - 5500 km can be equipped with a nuclear warhead

Operational-tactical ballistic missiles These missiles are designed to destroy a small target in any weather conditions at any time

DEFENCE & SECURITY and potentially track F-35, and the presence of Russian technical experts associated with the deal. “The concern was that the radar system on the S-400 would compromise the F-35 technologies, and there was a lack of trust over Turkey’s willingness to prevent F-35 technology being transferred to Russia. I think if India were to acquire S-400 it is doubtful that it would then be offered the F-35.”

Dr Korybko said the argument that military suppliers from one nation could spy on another nation’s systems within an integrated network could be made in theory. “Washington, however, hasn’t publicly disclosed any specific technical details for how that could happen,” he noted, adding that the same argument could be made against US systems as well.

US’ “it’s actually Washington that’s politicising the S-400s.”

According to Korybko, this could be in order to “gain a competitive edge with New Delhi by increasing the costs of that planned purchase through sanctions, including the threat of limiting further arms cooperation with it that some observers suspect is driven by their shared interests in containing China.”

“It’s generally a rule of thumb nowadays that a country benefits most in the battlefield whenever its weapons systems are integrated as much as possible. That’s more difficult to do when mixing between different suppliers,” he pointed out.

Long-standing partnership

A spanner in the works Speaking to The Express Tribune on Western reservations to the S-400, Dr Davis said the concern is mainly that buying the system would reinforce Russian influence over the future shape of Indian defence capability and posture.

“Its not just a missile, its a complete system, and India’s air defence capability would have to reshape to accommodate it,” he said. “This was a much bigger concern with Turkey as a Nato partner, and the US quite correctly saw Russian moves regarding the S-400 with Ankara as an attempt to divide Nato, and tempt Turkey to align to Moscow,” he maintained.

According to Dr Davis, the same might the said with regards to India, “though its not as acute as Turkey was.”

“But the US is wanting to boost defence cooperation with Delhi, and its difficult to do that if India is doing deals with Moscow that would see closer cooperation between the two. I think if India were to acquire S-400 from Russia, this would complicate future defence capability acquisitions from the US,” he stressed.

“The S-400 system would likely be supported by Russian technicians, who could use the system’s advanced radar to monitor any US systems operating in the region – particularly if India were to seek to follow Turkey’s example and buy the F-35. I think that purchase would be quickly off the table,” Dr Davis shared. “But more generally, it would create an air of suspicion as to India’s engagement with Russia, a US adversary in a key area of defence technology.

That could potentially undermine the Quad, which if it occurred, would be a real setback for US Indo-Pacom strategy.”

The system acknowledges targets within 600km

$25 billion is the value of joint-production ventures between Russia and India

A sceptical partnership?

“India sees the S-400s as the best product on the market, but going through with the deal despite American threats is also intended to send a political message to Russia that New Delhi will bear the costs of maintaining their military relationship despite recently diversifying towards Western suppliers,” he said.

The threat of sanctions Even so, both analysts agreed that the threat of US sanctions should India go ahead with its purchase was very real.

“There are some parallels in this situation with Turkey’s move to purchase S-400 systems as well. That episode resulted in Turkey facing CAATSA sanctions from the US,” said Dr Davis, when asked about ramifications on US-In-

Long range surveillance radar tracks objects and relays information to a command vehicle, which assesses potential targets

It reacts to a target in less than 10 seconds

2 (RLK) 91H6E RADAR COMPLEX

Speaking to The Express Tribune, Pakistani defence analyst Maj-Gen (retd) Inamul Haq offered a third perspective on the India-US partnership. He suggested that the US is not doing India any ‘favours’ and “it badly wants to position India as a counter to China in the region.”

“India is not foolish. For one, it knows how the US used and treated Pakistan, and so it is wary of a similar fate. India can also balance itself against China without the US, and the reason for that is that India’s grand strategy towards China is aimed at avoiding conflict,” he said. “India will maximise its potential, but never take this bait. India will continue to take benefits from both US and Russia as much as possible. Militarily this means it will keep purchasing hardware from everywhere to maintain a diverse inventory.”

Maj-Gen Inam drew attention to the depth of India’s historic military tries with Russia. “India’s joint production ventures with Russia are to the tune of $25 billion. They include such big-ticket programmes like the Brahmos

It can hit a target from 400 km at 4.8 km per second

4

1

even the ruling BJP by making it seem like India has accepted becoming the US’ junior partner by continuing to militarily cooperate with it despite being disrespected with sanctions,” he said. “Such uncomfortable optics would risk raising questions about the ruling party’s true commitment to its well-known rhetoric about national interests, patriotism, sovereignty, and strategic autonomy.”

Regarding the US offering India equivalent systems to dissuade it from purchasing the S-400, Korybko said: “Some reports earlier suggested that India was offered analogous systems but they don’t meet the country’s defense requirements.” He added that India might in theory buy them, “but for political reasons to placate the US, though only on the condition that it’s allowed to also purchase the S-400s without being sanctioned.”

“Based on New Delhi’s existing policy as evidenced by its repeated statements on the matter, it appears unlikely that it will ditch the Russian deal and replace the S-400s with whatever the US is offering. If that happened, though, then it would be a watershed event in Russian-Indian relations, irreversibly harm their special and privileged strategic partnership, and compel Moscow to recalibrate its delicate balancing act by moving closer to Beijing, ironically turning New Delhi’s nightmare into a self-fulfilling prophecy. “

Engagement radar helps guide missiles towards target

3

Target is identified and the command vehicle orders missile launch

Launch data is sent to the best placed launch vehicle and it releases surface to air missiles

THE SS-400 AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM

(RLS) 92H6E MULTIFUNCTIONAL RADAR SYSTEM 55K6E COMBAT CONTROL POINT

MISSILE RANGES

40N6: 400KM S-400 TRIUMF (SA-21 GROWLER) Maximum detection range Maximum altitude Maximum target speed

600km 30km 4.8km/sec

Targets engaged simultaneously up to 36 A balancing act Asked if India’s persistence to procure the S-400 was intended to balance its relations with Russia and the US, Dr Davis said “I think that that might have been the motivation during the Trump Administration – there was real concern about how much allies could count on the US under Trump, so states like India were hedging their bets, and a defence deal with Russia was one way to maintain India on that ‘non-aligned’ balancing point.”

“Obviously whilst there is uncertainty about the future – might Trump, or the ‘Trumpists’ return in 2024? – I think with Biden currently in charge, India would be wise to engage with the US through the Quad, rather than get drawn into an India-Russia relationship, given Russia’s close relationship with China,” he suggested. “I think India would have more to lose by sacrificing the Quad now, especially when its making real progress, to engage in a foolish deal with Russia, as it would ultimately play into China’s hands (China also has the S-400).”

Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko chose to view India’s move from a different angle. “Military relationships naturally have political dimensions, and those countries like India that are attempting to balance between two or more patrons are more likely to be conscious of this,” he said. He was of the view that since Russia’s military relations with India are much older than the

All indications suggest US will be consistent in imposing sanctions against India if it goes through with its planned purchase Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko

48N6: 250KM

9N96: 120KM dia cooperation. “Does that put US in a Catch-22 situation? Could India face similar sanctions or, if not, how would that be seen in Turkey and other US military partners outside of Nato? I think it would end any prospect of India getting the F-35, or for that matter, having real access to advanced US military capabilities in the future.”

“All indications suggest that the US will be consistent in imposing CAATSA sanctions against India if it goes through with its planned purchase just like it recently did with Turkey, though perhaps also limiting them only to so-called targeted sanctions for pragmatic reasons,” shared Korybko, when asked the same. “It’s likely that the US would remain consistent with its policy of denying the F-35s to countries that purchase Russia’s S-400s. Making exceptions would erode America’s credibility with Turkey and other countries.”

Dr Davis was of the opinion that by going for the S-400, Delhi would be sacrificing a lot for not much in return: “an advanced SAM system, with lots of political strings attached, and China strengthened because the Quad would become more vulnerable to failure.”

“In the same way Turkey has achieved little with its dalliance with Moscow, India would suffer a similar outcome. Furthermore, India could approach the US for systems such as Patriot, THAAD, or even more significantly, work through the Quad to develop new GBADS capabilities that could checkmate S-400. Certainly all four Quad states need to take the long-range GBADS capability area more seriously, so an S-400 purchase by India would represent a missed opportunity,” he suggested.

Asked about the likelihood of the US offering India a system that it did not provide Turkey despite it being a part of Nato, Dr Davis said: “I think the US doesn’t want to see the Quad fail – especially given China’s aggressive behaviour in the region.”

Korybo, however, suggested that sanctions could do more harm to US interests in the region than that of India’s. “The imposition of anti-Indian sanctions of any nature by that country’s newfound Quad ally could prompt New Delhi to reduce its commitments to that seemingly anti-Chinese military alliance. It could also cause domestic controversy inside Indian society and

India is not foolish. It will maximise its potential, but never take this bait. Militarily this means it will keep purchasing hardware from everywhere to maintain a diverse inventory Maj-Gen (retd) Inamul Haq cruise missile, T-90 tanks and the Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets. India wants to diversify its military inventory, but 70 to 74 per cent of it is Russian in origin,” he pointed out. “India is also one of Russia’s five biggest export destinations. Russia ditching India would be extremely unlikely.”

“Russia’s foreign policy is aimed at overcoming its historic insecurities – it’s sparsely populated land mass and food insecurity, which combine to limit its power potential, along with the threats it faces due to its soft underbelly and from the rise of extremist Islam,” he elaborated. “Partnerships with nations like China and India are vital to Russia’s foreign policy and foreign military sales are a huge part of its diplomacy. Last year, Russia made foreign military sales to the tune of $11.3 billion.”

Maj-Gen Inam agreed that both Russia and China want to keep India from veering away and want keep the South Asian nation focused regionally. He noted that Russia is not happy with the Quad and that is why it has moved to upgrade its relationship with Pakistan. “If India-Russia ties improve in terms of foreign military sales and India does not join groupings Moscow sees as anti-Russia, Pakistan will remain where it is. If India does join such groupings in a meaningful way, then I believe Russia will get upset.”

Maj-Gen Inam added that since the US thinks that India is the only country in this region capable of standing up to China, it will accept India’s purchase of the S-400 as fait accompli, like it did with Turkey.

APRIL 18, 2021

5

ECONOMY & BUSINESS

Pakistan needs an economic transformation policy framework to overhaul its economy by redefining and restructuring its resources as well as incentives for economic growth. This policy framework is necessitated to achieve sustainable development goals by improving social and human capital indicators. The macroeconomic transformation framework revolves around some of the key initiatives like pursuing a growth model promoting investment, public-private partnership, infrastructure development, large scale manufacturing, enhancing exports, ensuring energy and food security. The ICT infrastructure and knowledge economy are pivotal to this model. Last but not least, institutional reforms are absolutely necessary for the good governance necessary for implementation of this economic framework.

A long-term plan that meticulously details an economic model for the future is what is needed. The plan should highlight a vision as well as a mission to achieve those goals such as where Pakistan would be in the next 20 years or 30 years. Pakistan needs to pursue economic planning on the pattern of the Chinese economic model of Deng Xiaoping or the Singaporean economic model of Lee Kuan Yew to achieve this. The inclusive growth model is of utmost importance and is absolutely needed to be pursued in letter and spirit. Whatever planning is done, the population outburst must also be counted for the next course of action, as it is disturbing all sorts of planning. This is crucial as Pakistan’s population will be touching 403 million people by 2050, which is not only alarming but also mind boggling. The demographic projections are horrible and need to be addressed at the earliest for careful future planning and development.

There is a need for assigning more importance and priority to social and human capital by placing a higher amount of emphasis on women empowerment as it is an important part of transformation of the existing social fabric of our society and provides the basis for sustainable economic development. Currently, Pakistan stands at 60 per cent of its literacy rate by spending only 2.5 percent of its GDP on the education sector, while primary and public health figures are also rather disappointing. The human development indicators are at its lowest ebb and Pakistan stands at 154 out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI). Moreover, there are about 63 million children who are currently out of school and need immediate government intervention. For this purpose, accelerated learning programmes should be prioritised in order to properly educate the high volume of children who have so far not been receiving any formal education.

Growing exponentially

403 million is projected to be the size of Pakistan’s population by the year 2050 The National Commission for Human Development (NCHD), placed under the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training, is the only arm of the federal government that has a presence in almost all districts of Pakistan and provides support to human development. But this organisation is also under performing due to a number of reasons, particularly budgetary con-

stan’s ful-

By Hassan Baig

A closer examination of the country’s policies underscores the need for urgent long-term planning and reform in a vast array of sectors straints. The government is currently going through a process of pondering over various proposals and considering which ones they can do away with, which would be again a disastrous decision, if made by the government.

The need of the hour is to pump more money into this sector for overall improvement in human capital.

When we discuss human development, it is important not to overlook women empowerment and gender parity for the sake of successfully achieving sustainable development goals. Out of total population in Pakistan, 51 percent of population comprises of women but the gender inequality gap is alarmingly wide and needs to be narrowed as women can play a very vital role in the uplift of the country. For instance, a literate mother can mean a literate and educated family. Even otherwise, women participation’s is a must for economic development because no country can progress and prosper if 51 per cent of its productive workforce is forced to sit at home.

The goal of achieving a 100 per cent literacy rate in Pakistan is a distant dream but the government should be chalking out a plan it to achieve this goal over the next 15 or 20 years. An emphasis should be placed on literacy coupled with technical and vocational training programmes to make it worthwhile and productive. Pursuing this vigorously along with creating literacy programmes for out of school children can help achieve that literacy rate. NAVTTC and TEVTAs should be strengthened by providing more financial support to impart technical trainings to masses in an effort to make them into a productive workforce.

Moreover, the industrial base should also be enlarged by promoting the concept of industrial zones and industrial clusters for employment of technically trained manpower in the indus-

try. Export promotion and import substitution should also be carried out in such economic zones in order to strengthen economic development.

Investment and infrastructure development also need a coherent and consistent policy framework. Tax exemptions and tax holidays are necessary ingredients for investment and infrastructure development. A stable and inclusive political system is also needed to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). A balanced monetary policy and lower discount rate provide incentives to domestic investors to invest more into businesses. A fiscal policy framework also needs to be crafted in a manner that attracts more businesses while protecting revenues of the state in the form of taxes, which will provide a strong base to GDP growth.

Same is the case of public sector development programmes for infrastructure development to facilitate industry and business. The government should chalk out a 15-year or 20-year policy for investment and infrastructure development. For instance, Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) provide a big boost to the economy and a low interest rate can attract investment in the LSM industries and businesses.

Modernisation of the communication and transport infrastructure is another area of intervention for smooth transformation to development. Regional connectivity through modern infrastructure development, especially information and communication technology infrastructure is necessary for smooth progressive development framework. This is, in fact, the era of knowledge economy and value addition is the hallmark of this economy. There is a paradigm shift in modern development models owing to the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution. The ways and means of wealth creation are also under a transformation phase. Modern day cryptocurrency and its acceptability is an indicator of a new revolution highlighting knowledge economy whereby a whole new sort of economic activity has now become available to you on your fingertips. Internet and artificial intelligence has also literally brought a new revolution in the world by using micro-electronics, robotics and telecommunications. Pakistan needs to therefore focus on ICT infrastructure development for its growth model for modern day businesses.

Energy and food security are the most important areas, which need to be addressed by the government. Water shortages are more frequent now and this is another area of concern for Pakistan. Pakistan is now traditionally importing oil along with LNG and building dams for its energy requirements but it needs a long-term policy framework for its energy requirements and energy security. If we achieve political stability in Balochistan, then that would open up the possibility of oil and gas exploration in the province, as it is believed that it contains a lot of reserves. More oil and gas exploration concessions could be granted to investors, as Pakistan gets most of the FDI in this sector. The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has been busy in this sector but Paki-

The role of the govt is to act as a regulator instead of running businesses. It is the people’s role to run and invest into private companies 6

APRIL 18, 2021

needs are filled through imports - where a large chunk of our foreign exchange reserves is spent. Food security is another area where the government needs to focus more, as Pakistan is basically an agrarian society and agriculture is our main sector of employment and provides food security for many. The government is already under criticism for importing wheat and sugar this year despite Pakistan’s status of an agriculture-based country. Therefore, this is also a dire need for long-term planning to ensure food security for the poor masses. Food inflation is already on the rise and people are suffering badlyfrom purchasing costly necessary food items from the market. In this respect, the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry has been giving proposals to attract investment in this sector and government has already given nod to welcome such proposals.

The public-private partnership (PPP) model is the best model to be implemented by the government, where private investors are always ready to take lead for the overall good of the general public. What is beyond imagination is why the government the government has been slow to take steps to speed up this process. The government has resources, and private individuals and companies possess the money to invest---the partnership would be a win-win situation in the overall context of economy. A large chunk of state-owned companies and corporations are in losses which need to be stream-lined for privatisation or these should be handed over to private investors on PPP model.

This transformation initiative is already under process but it needs to be expedited for early recovery and response to ensure inclusive result-oriented growth.

The system of governance and institutional reforms are key to a sustainable economic growth. Political system and its stability are imperative for economic transformation initiatives. Democratic dispensation and its continuity can ensure successful execution of projects yielding results through institutional reforms. Pakistan has been passing through different phases of political experience

Untapped potential

63 million children in Pakistan are currently out of school but now consensus is almost developed that continuity of system could ensure economic progress badly needed to this country. While China may be an interesting exception, almost all countries who have made it onto the list of developed nations actually earned this success through an inclusive political system popularly known as democracy.

But it is also matter of fact that institutional reforms are necessary to get meaningful results for successful transformation.

Institutional reforms are key to progress and Pakistan badly needs a reform agenda starting from political to bureaucratic and then to economic reforms. To this effect, the government is already working on such reforms and has formed a cabinet committee for institutional reforms.

Political reforms will lead to other reforms because the political institution is mother of all institutions and is, in fact, independent to decide. However, the bureaucratic reforms and economic reforms are also absolutely necessary for the survival of this country. The bureaucracy is in fact the most powerful arm of the government, so its reform agenda should have been prioritised. Although National Commission for Government Reforms (NCGR) has been working on this agenda for quite some time now, no results have been observed so far, for whatever reason best known to Dr Ishrat Hussain.

Lastly, economic reforms can change the fate of this country. The role of the government in a capitalist world is to act as a regulator instead of running businesses. It is the people’s role to run and invest into private companies, and in turn contribute revenues in the form of taxes. Therefore, economic reforms have become a necessity to get rid of loss-making entities such as the Steel Mill and the Pakistan International Airlines.

Power companies also need to be privatised to maximise their benefits. Incentives for the private sector need to be prioritised to attract investment in various sectors of the economy. A balanced fiscal and monetary policy can play a major role in attracting investment in this country. The Central bank and Finance ministry are crucial in this regard for the successful transition to a progressive and economically developed country.

It is to be noted that the economic transformation is hidden in the growth and development framework. This framework agenda can only be achieved by improving social and human capital through inclusive political and economic system. Institutional reforms can play a crucial role in this regard. Knowledge economy, infrastructure development, business and investment promotion through private sector are key ingredients of this successful model.

THE WRITER IS AN ECONOMIST AND BUREAUCRAT WORKING FOR THE NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT.

Photos: Agencies

ART, MEDIA & LITERATURE

A former student of Professor Riazuddin reflects on the physicist’s memoirs and the indelible mark he has left on the field in Pakistan SAJJAD MAHMOOD

persons became accountable only to the VC, foregoing to seek faculty input. Decisions flowed down. With all due respects, even in the Department of Physics, where some of those who came between 1966 and 1968 with lofty ideals, now had narrower interests.

After traveling to Virginia, USA from Trieste, Italy, Professor Riazuddin applied for an extension to his leave. The University asked him to sign an indemnity (surety) bond, while Professor Riazuddin reminded them of his numerous trips and returns without a bond and that the service statutes did not have such a provision (The communications back and forth between the professor and administration on the subject leading to the termination notice should be on record at the QAU).

A couple of weeks after this incident, Professor Fayyazuddin (then serving at the King Khalid University at Riyadh and also on leave from QAU) visited Dhahran.

He called me aside, took me to an electric typewriter and dictated a letter of resignation from his position at QAU and in this way, QAU lost two distinguished physicists within weeks.

The summer of 2005 was when things got heated with the proposal of the pelletron being placed at the NCP, as mentioned in the memoirs. Professor Riazuddin was at that time the Director-General. Having read a June 25, 2005 article of Dr. Atta-urRahman, I was as perplexed at my former colleagues at QAU. At this stage, I took the unusual step of writing a letter to a distant cousin, transmitting it via email to my sister. She personally delivered a print of my letter to General (R) Pervez Musharraf.

Subsequently he called and I remember pressing him to intervene and seek input from Professor Riazuddin. Those efforts did have some, though not the desired effect. One unwelcome outcome was a phone call in early August at 2 AM in the morning. Someone asked for a mailing address. A week or so later, I received a thick stack of papers, the curriculum vitae of Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman.

In 2007, the pelletron arrived and Professor Riazuddin was pushed aside to an emeritus position. Fortunately, however, he was spared office space. He remained active in research and much later thankfully, took up the writing of the memoirs. Perhaps he had more to write. We shall never know.

The late Professor Riazuddin was an extraordinary scientist who also happened to be a quiet, gentle and humble man.

To those who know him, he was also second to Professor Abdus Salam among Pakistani physicists. Quietly (like he did most things), he led the initial efforts in crafting the theoretical models for developing Pakistan’s nuclear capability.

His memoirs carry a similarly quiet and straightforward narration of facts. Unusual in a society that is far more inclined to taking to gloating and chest thumping, it is a first of its kind coming from a physicist who selflessly served Pakistan. For this reason alone, the editors are to be commended for compiling this volume.

Professor Riazuddin was the founder director of the Institute of Physics at the University of Islamabad, which was established in 1967. It was nearly nine years later in 1976 that the university was renamed as Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU).

There are two episodes in the life of Professor Riazuddin occupying most of the narrative of the book: the lonely, painstaking and intriguing work that led to the tests at Chaghai on May 28, 1998, which of course is recorded in an understated manner but the other is the chain of events covered in relative detail relate to procurement of a Van De Graaf accelerator at the National Centre for Physics (NCP) Islamabad in 2005. The emphasis is on facts. There is a hint at pressures and manipulations employed, leaving much to one’s imagination.

The sections related to the personal life leave the reader clamouring for more information. For example, I am intrigued by his interactions with the famous poet Sahir Ludhianvi. There is also not much about his worthy brother and their mutual interactions, apart from a couple of incidents. One is left to wonder if the second person he mentions, who kept on attending Professor Abdus Salam’s evening lectures on quantum mechanics (195153) at the University of the Punjab, was in fact Professor Fayyazuddin.

Having previously heard about his brilliance, we were in awe of this man. As the class started, we tried to hang onto his every word Earlier I had enrolled in the PhD programme under Professor Fayyazuddin. From a distance, during those days it was often difficult to tell them apart, close up one could make out that Professor Riazuddin was quieter of the two.

In reading the memoirs, most people may focus on the narrative related to the atomic bomb and the saga of Van de Graaf accelerator at the NCP. However, there are other significant documents that demand attention. Professor Riazuddin’s writings dealing with our society, basic and applied sciences and education policies (all detailed in chapters 14 through 18) are instructive for their simplicity, broad appeal, everlasting relevance and directness.

One hopes those writings find understanding and comprehension from readers just as much as the aforementioned excitement-filled ones do.

My first introduction to Professor Riazuddin was on a bone chilling day in January 1974. We 13 students were huddled around a single gas heater in a large room, waiting for an introduction to quantum mechanics. Five minutes before 1:30 in the afternoon, he was spotted coming up the stairs of the physics building.

Having previously heard about his success and brilliance, we were in awe of this man. As the class started, we tried to hang onto his every word and ensure our notes detailed every morsel of brilliance he was willing to bestow on us. Each class started with a clean board and the chalk board covered almost the entirety of one wall - roughly five meters. Professor Riazuddin started writing from the top left and when the board would fill up, he would erase it and start all over again. Questions were answered with precision. During those 90-minute lectures throughout the year, seriousness held, and we all developed a deep and abiding respect for him. He would arrive at the appointed hour and leave each class walking across the physics building taking those small but quick purposeful steps.

The summer of 1977 at the ‘Second International Summer College on Physics and Contemporary Needs,’ was the first time that I had occasion to talk to him informally. I picture the strolls on the roads of Nathiagali. We talked about the utility and relevance of the college and were topics covered in enough detail? Those strolls continued for a few years for me.

Now as I look closely at the picture of us three, I see him in discomfort. I had no idea of the pain he endured The institution of the college, nurtured by him is now in its 46th year. I am compelled to correct and expand upon one incident. In Chapter six, the late Professor Faheem Hussain cites the termination from service of Professor Riazuddin at QAU as having predated his move to Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. There is also an impression that he resigned and left for a quiet professorship in Saudi Arabia. As it is, fate had me at Dhahran from December 1982 to April 1983. A couple of times a week, I used to visit Professor Riazuddin at the King Fahad University of Petroleum and Minerals.

Photos: Sajjad Mahmood

People may focus on the narrative related to the atomic bomb and the saga of Van de Graaf accelerator at the NCP. However, there are other significant documents that demand attention

One morning Professor Riazuddin handed me half a sheet of paper – perhaps the third or fourth carbon copy of a note from a manual typewriter. The text was blurred and difficult to read. In the sweetest Punjabi we had grown accustomed to, he asked me to take a look. It was the notice of termination from the QAU. I read the note and looked at him, unable to make any sense, unable to speak, unable to stay quiet!

Professor Riazuddin had known about it a day earlier through a write up by Professor Faheem Hussain, published in The Muslim, an Islamabad daily. It would help if the article had been part of the memoirs. In its absence, allow me to set up the relevant context: Following the military takeover in mid to late 1979, rules were tightened to curb faculty travel abroad. Getting a ‘No Objection Certificate’ for travel to seminars and conferences abroad got tougher. Professor Riazuddin had left the country in early 1979 on a leave of absence. In November 1980, Shaikh Imtiaz Ali was appointed as the Vice-Chancellor (VC) of QAU. Overnight, most male senior faculty members, on instructions from their bosses, exchanged their coats and ties to shalwar-kameez coupled with a vest coat. At the Physics Department Professor Arifuzzaman Siddiqui and Faheem

sahib stood out among the senior faculty.

One by continuing as ever and the other by conspicuously donning jeans and t-shirts daily. At around the same period people started to insert a “Dr” between “Professor” and their names – perhaps it made them feel more accomplished.

Shaikh Imtiaz Ali played havoc with rules and regulations governing the departments and the faculty. Departmental chair-

Not widely known, Professor Riazuddin established a family trust that funds scholarships at QAU. These started in 2007 and now cover all the natural science departments at the Master’s level and for the Physics Department at the MPhil level too

Professor Riazuddin’s dedication to development of science in Pakistan, and to QAU continued in his personal capacity. Not widely known, Professor Riazuddin established a family trust that funds scholarships at QAU. These started in 2007 and now cover all the natural science departments at the Master’s level and for the Physics Department at the M.Phil. level too. The family has renamed the trust as Riazuddin Trust for Science Education and Research in Pakistan and expanded its domain. All earnings from the memoirs benefit the Riazuddin Trust.

Perhaps it is pertinent here to bring forth some aspects of his personality apart from academics and science. In January 1983, we travelled to the holy cities of Makkah and Medina. I came across both brothers at the Holy Prophet’s mosque in Medina. Sitting there, while Fayyazuddin sahib talked about history and the Turkish architecture surrounding us, Professor Riazuddin was focused solely on his recitation of the Holy Quran and prayers. How can I ever forget his thoughtfulness?

We were in Trieste, Italy when in the spring of 1984 Professor Riazuddin visited. As all young parents, we had a tough time deciphering what caused our infant son to cry. The crying is customarily ascribed to colic and gripe water often soothes. The problem was we could not find it on the shelves in pharmacies. Someone had told Professor Riazuddin of our quandary and on his way through London he picked up bottles of Woodward’s Gripe Water.

And his simple and unpretentious nature? One evening he graced our apartment in Trieste. It was near dinner time and there was no dinner. I ran down and got into the corner store just as it was shutting down. All I could grab was a box of noodles. We had noodles with homemade tomatoes and onion sauce. It remains a memorable dinner for us.

When in late January 2013, I walked into the office of Professor Riazuddin at the NCP. He was working; an open journal, calculation in progress. Looking up, he rose to greet me with a smile that we forever miss. Soon Professor Fayyazuddin joined us and we chatted for a while. He was gracious and kind. It seemed Professor Riazuddin had aged more than his brother. Now as I look closely at the picture of us three, I see him in discomfort. I had no idea of the pain he endured. As I walked out, I saw Professor Riazuddin walk back to his desk, grab the pen and pick up the work from where my entry had disrupted the chain.

Above him was a portrait of Mohammad Ali Jinnah.

He left us on September 9, 2013.

THE WRITER IS A FORMER STUDENT OF PROFESSOR RIAZUDDIN AND WAS A MEMBER OF THE QAU PHYSICS FACULTY FROM 1984 TO 1997.

APRIL 18, 2021

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LAW & JUSTICE

Examining the policies and approaches Pakistan’s former top judges employed over the last 10 years reveals the far-reaching impacts of judicial overreach A HASNAAT MALIK ISLAMABAD

Since the restoration of judges in March 2009 through the lawyers movement, exercising of public interest jurisdictions under Article 184 (3) of the constitution by the Supreme Court (SC) have remained under severe criticism.

Seven former chief justices, namely Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Tassaduq Hussain Jilani, Nasirul Mulk, Jawwad S Khawaja, Anwar Zaheer Jamali, Mian Saqib Nisar and Asif Saeed Khosa, worked for the purpose after the judiciary’s restoration through a mass movement of political parties and lawyers that year.

During their respective tenures, there has been consistent concern that the superior judiciary encroached in the domain of executive and legislature.

Instead of focusing on improving the justice system in order to implement Article 37-d, the superior judiciary largely gave priority to issues of maladministration and good governance.

Similarly, the superior judiciary has also remained a key player in shaping the country’s politics for the past one decade. Instead of giving space to political leaderships, the top judges gave them a tough time on various issues, especially during the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) regimes. Even two prime ministers – PPP’s Yousaf Raza Gillani and PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif – were disqualified by the SC along with three dozen MNAs who were also disqualified on the basis of fake degrees, dual nationalities and non-disclosure of assets in their nomination papers. Likewise, a few of them were also convicted in contempt matters.

A section of legal experts allege that after the restoration of the judiciary, the apex court exercised its public interest litigation for the purpose of ‘political engineering’ in the country. Moreover, the country is also facing massive financial losses due to the apex court’s rulings in matters related the Pakistan Steel Mills Privitisation and Reko Diq, among others.

During the tenure of former Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the SC took up a number of important issues and cases, including those about fixation of CNG prices, rental power project case, the illegal appointment of OGRA chairman, the ephedrine case, the Pakistan Steel Mills, waived-off loans, breaches in embankments during the 2010 floods, the National Insurance Company Limited case, promotions of 54 bureaucrats, Hajj corruption, ISAF containers, contract employees and irregularities in Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).

Likewise, the SC also constituted special benches regarding the implementation of different judgements in other cases like rental power projects corruption, illegal appointment of OGRA chairman, LPG quota and Pakistan Steel Mills scam. However, no major change was witnessed on account of excercising public interest jurisdiction in matters related to good governance and maladministration.

After the retirement of CJP Chaudhry in December 2013, the superior judiciary led by successors, especially Justice Tassaduq Jilani and Justice Nasirul Mulk avoided interfering into executive and parliamentary affairs. However, within 25 days of his tenure as chief justice, Justice Jawad S Khawaja began to focus on the maladministration in the country.

The 15-month tenure of Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali was more or less a continuation of the ‘judicial restraint’ policy adopted by his two predecessors. However, during his last days, Justice Jamali took up Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s petition seeking disqualification of former premier Nawaz Sharif in the wake of the Panamagate scandal.

The matter, however, could not be decided during his tenure. Likewise, Justice Jamali mainly focused governance issues related to Sindh. Justice Amir Hani also passed several directives to improve service structure.

After his retirement, Justice Saqib Nisar became the new CJP. Justice Nisar visibly changed his approach in the last year of his tenure and started a unique ‘judicial overreach’, which was completely different from what he did as a superior court judge throughout his 20-year career.

It is also a fact that his judicial activism has overshadowed his previous pro-executive and pro-parliament approach which was also characterised by judicial restraint. Many lawyers describe his judicial activism as a ‘U-turn’ in his approach. Justice Nisar had believed in political-constitutional supremacy until 2017. However that year, he emerged as a believer of the judicial-constitutional supremacy.

However, despite these harsh remarks and observations against maladministration and the federal government functionaries, the CJP has not passed any coercive orders during the last five months Justice Nisar had been pro-executive throughout his career but in his last year he became skeptical about powers of the executive. He had been skeptic about the public interest litigation under Article 184 (3) of the constitution but eventually became a strong proponent of exercising suo motu powers. He mainly focused on construction of dams in the country. Likewise, he campaigned for fund collection for dams. Moreover, he also arranged conference on population control.

Perhaps it was the first time in judicial history of Pakistan that a CJP heard cases also on the weekends. Water, health, education and population control were his main priorities. Likewise, the CJP conducted unique proceedings in public interest matters at the Lahore Registry.

Justice Nisar not only adjudicated matters related to public interest but also visited different hospitals and jails. In regard to his dam fund collection, despite reservations, people largely appreciated his efforts in highlighting the issue of water shortage in the country.

During the last year of his tenure, Courtroom Number 1 always remained packed during hearings of high profile cases, in which several politicians, civil servants and common people appeared.

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APRIL 18, 2021

After his retirement in January 2019, Justice Asif Saeed Khosa became the CJP. He also retired on December 2019 and thus will be remembered for his short tenure in judicial history for many years. Justice Khosa’s entire focus during his tenure was to improve the criminal justice system in the country.

Aside from that, in regards to the matters of the executive, he adopted the policy of judicial restraint. Moreover, it is to be noted that he also did not take a single suo motu notice on governance issues.

Judicial activism of the incumbent CJP Gulzar Ahmed has so far been harmless for the executive. It was reflected in CJP Gulzar’s first speech on December 20, 2019 that judicial activism will be revised and eradication of corruption as well as maladministration would be his high priorities. However, despite these harsh remarks and observations against maladministration and the federal government functionaries, the CJP has not passed any coercive orders during the last five months.

Judicial analysis, assessment or adjudication of such matters, which is more or less theoretical, cannot be a substitute for prudent management Justice Ejaz Afzal Khan The SC has in fact, even facilitated the federal government in few matters like rehabilitation of the Pakistan Steel Mills, holding of election in GilgitBaltistan (GB) and execution of its policy related to Covid-19 in the provinces, especially Sindh.

Likewise, CJP is focusing to complete Railways Circular project in Karachi.

Even in order to complete this project, a contempt notice was issued Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah regarding non implementation of SC directives to complete underpasses.

During hearing of a suo motu case regarding billions of rupees losses in Pakistan Railways, the CJP on January 28 grilled Minister for Railways Sheikh Rashid for the organisation’s poor performance and said the minister should have resigned after the

Tezgam tragedy, which claimed the lives of 74 people.

On the same day, Rashid expressed apprehension over the ongoing judicial activism during a cabinet meeting. At the next hearing, the CJ showed restraint and did not make any harsh observation against Rashid.

After hearing of the case, the minister was jubilant as he escaped a tougher treatment at the hands of the chief justice.

During the hearing of a case against the appointment of Air Marshal Arshad Malik as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the PIA, the SC again showed restraint. Earlier, the SC bench led by the CJ, grilled the federal government for appointing a serviceman as the CEO of the national flag carrier by violating the rules and regulations.

The judges had also questioned performance of the PIA during Malik’s tenure, suspended his appointed as the PIA chief and asked him to abandon one of the two posts. The government sources had revealed that Malik had expressed unwillingness to leave the PAF. However, Attorney General for Pakistan (AGP) Khalid Javed Khan on March 18, 2020 convinced the bench to restore Arshad Malik as the PIA chief. It is also being witnessed that with the passage of time, the superior courts judges are seeing the error in judicial interference in the domain of other institutions. In 2016, former SC judge Ejaz Afzal Khan observed that judicial interference is not a substitute for prudent management.

Contrary to its historical judgment wherein it had halted the process of PSM privatisation, Justice Khan had declared, “judicial analysis, assessment or adjudication of such matters, which is more or less theoretical, cannot be a substitute for prudent management”. He said the PSMC alone is not in the lurch.

PIAC (Pakistan International Airline Corporation), which was one of the best airlines of the world, is also in troubled waters.

Justice Ejaz Afzal Khan, while authoring the four-page verdict, said overcoming failures of PSM is the domain of the executive and legislature. “The executive in the first instance could take stock of the situation, examine the causes of their failure and find ways and means to bring them out of such straits. The legislature could legislate to deal with the problems besetting the corporations if the existing dispensation in its wisdom is not equal to the occasion,” he said in its judgment.

Justice Mansoor Ali Shah on judicial overreach Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah, who is in line to become the next Chief Justice of Pakistan, in a judgment ruled that when judges commit “judicial overreach” they violate their oath, in a judgment that adjudicated on the distinction between judicial review, judicial activism and judicial overreach.

He described the judicial overreach as the court’s exercise of power outside the constitution and the law and encroachment on the domain of

legislature or the executive.

Justice Shah also said that judicial overreach is when the judiciary starts interfering with the proper functioning of the legislative or executive organs of the government. “This is totally uncharacteristic of the role of the judiciary envisaged under the constitution and is most undesirable in a constitutional democracy. He said that judicial overreach is transgressive as it transforms the judicial role of adjudication and interpretation of law into that of judicial legislation or judicial policy making, thus encroaching upon the other branches of the government and disregarding the fine line of separation of powers, upon which is pillared the very construct of constitutional democracy.

Justice Shah in his judgment said that such judicial leap in the dark is also known as “judicial adventurism” or “judicial imperialism,” adding: “A judge is to remain within the confines of the dispute brought before him and decide the matter by remaining within the confines of the law and the constitution.”

According to the judgment, the role of a constitutional judge is different from that of a king, who is free to exert power and pass orders of his choice over subjects. It added that after taking an oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution, a constitutional judge cannot be forgetful of the fact that he himself, is first and foremost subject to the constitution and the law.

“When judges uncontrollably tread the path of judicial overreach, they lower the public image of the judiciary and weaken the public trust reposed in the judicial institution. In doing so they violate their oath and turn a blind eye to their constitutional role,” the ruling said.

On judicial activism and judicial restraint, the ruling said: “Activist judges (or judicial activism) are less influenced by considerations of security, preserving the status quo, and the institutional constraints. On the other hand, selfrestrained judges (or judicial restraint) give significant weight to security, preserving the status quo and the institutional constraints.”

Both judicial activism and judicial self-restraint operate within the bounds of judicial legitimacy, the judgment added. “It is one thing for a judge to progressively interpret the law because of human rights considerations about which he has substantial information. It is quite another to change or ignore the law for economic or social or political reasons based on polycentric considerations beyond the judge’s expertise,” it added.

“According to Chief Justice John Marshall, judicial power is never exercised for the purpose of giving effect to the will of the judge; but always for the purpose of giving effect to the will of the legislature; or in other words, to the will of the law.”

Justice Ijazul Ahsan’s approach In his verdict in the Royal Palm Club lease agreement case, Justice Ijazul Ahsan, who will be one of the future CJPs, cited several past rulings to justify power of judicial review in financial matters under Article 184(3).

Justice Ahsan while summing up scope of the power of judicial review noted that the court can use these powers in cases of acts or omissions on the part of state functionaries – reflecting violation of mandatory provisions of law or the rules framed there under.

The judgment also notes that breaches of contracts – which do not entail examination of minute or disputed questions of fact committed by public functionaries involving dereliction of obligations flowing from a statute, rules or instructions – can also be reviewed.

It says public functionaries must exercise authority, especially while dealing with public property, public funds or assets, in a fair, just, transparent and reasonable manner.

Such exercise of power should not be untainted by malafides or colourable exercise of power for ulterior motives; without discrimination and in accordance with law, keeping in view constitutional rights of citizens, even in the absence of any specific statutory provisions setting forth the process in this behalf.

A judge is to remain within the confines of the dispute brought before him and decide the matter by remaining within the confines of the law and the constitution Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah “Interference with the decision-making process is warranted where it is vitiated on account of arbitrariness, illegality, irrationality and procedural impropriety or where it is actuated by malafides,” the judgement reads.

“Governmental bodies’ powers to dispense and regulate special services by means of leases, licences, contracts, quotas, etc, are expected to act fairly, justly and in a transparent manner and such powers cannot be exercised in an arbitrary or irrational manner,” it adds.

The judgment rules that public funds, public property, licences, jobs or any other government largesse is to be dealt with by public functionaries on behalf of and for the benefit of the people. “Scrutinise matters where public money is being expended through procurement or public property is being sold, so as to ensure that transactions by the government are undertaken and contracts executed in a transparent manner, legally, fairly and justly without any arbitrariness or irrationality and public money and public property is not squandered or stolen.”

It says judicial review can also be made in view of presence of elements such as personal solicitation and personal influence in procurement of contracts directly leading to inefficiency in the public service and to unnecessary expenditures of the public funds. “All agreements for pecuniary considerations to control the business operations of the government, or the regular administration of justice, or the appointments to public offices, or the ordinary course of legislation, are void as against public policy, without reference to the question, whether improper means are contemplated or used in their execution.

“If material changes are brought about in agreements subsequent to the bidding to benefit a particular party, this will in fact negate the notion of a fair and open competitive bidding process.”

It also notes that the courts should ordinarily refrain from interfering in the policy-making domain of the executive or in the award of contracts and should not substitute its decision for that of the latter unless the acts or omissions smack of arbitrariness, favouritism and a total disregard of the mandate of law.

Photos: Creative Common/Agencies