Eumundi Voice - Issue 96, 27 July 2024

How Australians see the world

On 5 June 2024, the Lowy Institute released its annual survey of how Australians see the world, based on the views of over 2000 randomly selected participants. Now in its 20th year, the poll shows how attitudes have changed over time on a number of issues, including threats facing Australia, the risk of conflict in the region, the economy, immigration, global warming and democracy itself.

The Lowy Institute was founded by Sir Frank Lowy in 2003 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of his arrival in Australia from wartorn Europe. Always a keen student of history and international affairs, he wanted to deepen the Australian debate about the world. Today the Lowy Institute is Australia’s leading foreign policy think tank.

The 2024 Lowy Poll found that public sentiment towards China is very low with only 17% of Australians trusting China “somewhat” to act responsibly in the world, down from 52% six years ago. Only Russia elicited less trust. A strong majority of Australians (71%) continue to think it “somewhat likely” or “very likely” that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years.

Up until 2020, most Australians thought that China was more of an economic partner than a military or security threat to Australia. That flipped in 2021 at the nadir of the political relationship and when Beijing’s trade restrictions were in full force. At that time, a clear majority (63%) saw China more as a security threat while only 34% saw China as more of an economic partner. In 2023 and 2024, as the relationship thawed, public opinion moved back towards a more even split between the two views.

Japan is the country most trusted by Australians at 87%, followed by France at 81% and the UK at 80%. In the lead up to the US Presidential elections, trust in the US dropped to 56%. Most Australians (68%) want Biden re-elected while 29% would prefer Trump.

Australians broad support of the Australia-US alliance has been consistent over two decades of Lowy Institute polling. Nevertheless, Australians placed more importance on the alliance during the terms of Presidents Obama and Biden than they did during the terms of Presidents Bush and Trump.

On the ‘feelings thermometer’, Australians continued to feel best about NZ at 84 degrees. Feelings towards the US fell 4 degrees to 59 degrees – its lowest reading ever – and down from an all-time high of 73 degrees in 2015. Countries in SE Asia and the Pacific ranked in the 60 degree range. Australians reserved their coldest feelings for North Korea at an icy 15 degrees.

An interesting finding over the years has been the change in attitudes towards democracy as a form of government. Australians aged 18-44yo were less likely than Australians over 45yo to say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government, at 65% and 79% respectively. That gap has widened by five points since 2022.

On immigration, 44% of the population said the migrant intake is too high while 50% thought it about right or too low. Those results remained steady since 2019.

On the economy, a majority of Australians (58%) say they are either “optimistic” (54%) or “very optimistic” (4%) about Australia’s economic performance in the next five years. However, this represents a four-point drop in overall economic optimism to the second-lowest level in the past two decades. This moderate change masks a more significant generational divide in economic outlook. Overall economic optimism fell by 11 points on last year to 44% in the 18–

29yo age group, while optimism levels held steady among those aged over 45.

While a majority of Australians say global warming is a serious and pressing problem, there remains a significant gap between younger and older Australians on this issue. Almost three-quarters (73%) of Australians aged 18-29 say global warming is a serious and pressing problem, compared with 51% of those aged over 60.

For the full results of the Lowy Institute Poll, visit: poll.lowyinstitute.org.

Rhonda Piggott