Eurasia 2023/12 - mobile

EURASIA DECEMBER 22, 2023

Mihály Varga MINISTER OF FINANCE, HUNGARY “Instead of building blocs, the government is promoting connectivity and broad cooperation between sovereign, independent countries”

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Table of contents

EURASIA ERA | FORUM | MAGAZINE

FOREWORD Eurasia Era | Forum | Magazine – Levente Horváth

GEURASIA

2-5.

Transitions for sustainability – Mariann Őry

6-8.

China offers an alternative to the fading Bretton Woods system – Zoltán Pataki

THE ECONOMICS OF GEOGRAPHY

10-11.

Green transition in finance – Hunor Hoppál

12-14.

NEW AGE – NEW ROAD

18-19.

The role of Metaverse in Eurasian technological development – Hunor Hoppál

2T2C: TALENT, TECHNOLOGY, CAPITAL, COGNITION

20-22.

Opportunities and challenges in education – Edith Krisztina Dócza

24-25.

Education enhances connectivity: interview with Paul Kim – Mariann Őry

RHYMES IN HISTORY

26-27.

World regime change underway – Márton Békés

CULTURE AND INNOVATION

28. Book reviews

ANCIENT KNOWLEDGE IN A MODERN WORLD

30-31.

Discovering the Silk Road – Rita Jeney - Zoltán Wilhelm

The dollar is losing its monopoly – Zoltán Pataki

NEW SUSTAINABLE ECONOMICS

16-17.

Focus on sustainability goals – Edith Krisztina Dócza

“We are living in the sustainable connectivity of the complex Eurasian age” Norbert Csizmadia

„The era of Eurasia has begun”, leading politicians have repeatedly said in recent years. Eurasia magazine, now entering its third volume, has been covering the transformation of the world order and the Eurasian super-region for two years. However, world order transformations do not happen overnight, but over many years or even decades - so I am confident that Eurasia magazine will continue to accompany the Dear Reader through the raging sea of these great changes for many years, if not decades to come.

In 2023, we have seen this sea rage ever more violently: In a world torn apart by a pandemic, the Russian-­ Ukrainian conflict erupted in 2022, escalating in 2023, followed by an energy crisis and new proxy wars breaking out all over the world: • In the Middle East, there was good news of reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March, but the region was in turmoil again in October when Hamas carried out a terrorist attack against Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which turned into a bloody war that is still ongoing.

• In the Caucasus, Azerbaijan occupied the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in late September.

• There have been nine coups in Africa since 2020, most recently in Nigeria in late July 2023, followed by a military takeover in Gabon in August. The continent is experiencing a wave of coups not seen since the 1970s, with one of the main aims be-

ing to reduce the influence of former colonial France. Meanwhile, the Sudanese civil war is also underway in the region.

• The civil war in Myanmar is intensifying and has been going on for almost two years. In recent weeks, China has begun military exercises on their common border.

And the list goes on. After the end of the Cold War, the number of conflicts in the world has steadily declined, but since 2010 it has been on the rise again. Today, the number, intensity and duration of conflicts worldwide are at their highest level since the end of the Cold War, according to an analysis by the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

The world has sensed that the unipolar world order, the Atlantic era, is changing and that we are entering a new Eurasia era. Consequently, the conflicts can be divided into two broad categories: • The end of the Atlantic era is characterised by conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. These regions and civilisations are rebelling against the regimes imposed on them by the West - brace yourselves Southeast Asia!

• The conflicts hindering the emergence of the Eurasia era are trying to disrupt the connectivity of the supercontinent and prevent the emergence of a new world order. In 2022, Central Asia was in the crosshairs, and now the war in the Middle East and the Russian-­ Ukrainian war are driving a wedge

Levente Horváth, Ph.D., Director of the Eurasia Center, Editor-in-Chief of Eurasia

between the emergence of a unified Eurasia.

The events of recent decades show that the Atlantic era is over and a new era is dawning. „The era of Eurasia has begun,” said György Matolcsy, President of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the central bank of Hungary, at the opening of the 2019 Pre-Session Eurasia Forum. For the fourth time in 2023, the Budapest Eurasia Forum, held for the fourth time at Magyar Nemzeti Bank in 2023, brought together 52 high-level political and academic leaders from 15 countries to discuss the future of the Eurasia era and a new world based on sustainable, peaceful cooperation.

Eurasia magazine also aims to bring the idea of the Eurasia era closer to our readers, to help them better understand and prepare for a new era in which opportunities, not threats, should be recognised.

As we start the year 2024 with our third volume, on behalf of the editorial team, I wish you a blessed holiday season, a peaceful and happy New Year and a successful preparation for the challenges of the Eurasia era.

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Geurasia

THE TWO-DAY EURASIA FORUM, UNDER THE MOTTO TRANSITIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY, WAS HELD IN BUDA­ PEST ON NOVEMBER 23-24, WITH 52 SPEAKERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD ATTENDING THE FOURTH EDITION OF THE CONFERENCE.

Transitions for sustainability

by Mariann Őry Photos: Róbert Hegedüs

opening

In his opening speech, György Matolcsy, Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), the central bank of Hungary, recalled that with the Forum, the central bank has built a new framework for Eurasian dialogue and understanding between Asia, China and the Western world. He stressed that Eurasia and the concept of sustainability are two sides of the same coin, inseparable from each other.

Sustainability, according to the Governor, means restoring harmony with nature, creating balance in our societies, ensuring access for all to new technologies and building a stable and balanced financial order.

György Matolcsy stressed that we need to reap the benefits of digitalisation, but we also need sustainability in technology, which means taking advantage of new technologies while keeping

Science, technology and innovation are the drivers of sustainable development – Cai Xuejun

György Matolcsy, Governor of Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Mihály Varga, Finance Minister of Hungary

Cai Xuejun, CEO of the Silk Road Fund

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Hungary serves as an intellectual hub

Sung-han Kim, Professor, Korea University

them in safe hands - for example, while artificial intelligence (AI) will contribute to our well-being in all areas of life, it is important to avoid its dangers.

According to the Governor, Hungary is an intellectual hub within the Eurasian connectivity and thus also within the Belt and Road Initiative. He

stressed that knowledge sharing is essential to accelerate the transition, the most important resource for creating a win-win-win-win world order.

The government’s work over the past decade has made Hungary the gateway to Europe and Asia, as confirmed by the increasing flow of investment from the East, said Finance Minister Varga Mihály.

He stressed that „the government is also putting Hungarian interests first in economic policy, so instead of building blocs, it is promoting connectivity and broad cooperation between sovereign, independent countries”.

Wu Hongbo, the Chinese government’s special representative for European affairs, underlined China’s commitment to peace, sustainability and

multilateral cooperation. Turning to the issue of international cooperation, he criticised phenomena such as unilateralism, protectionism and zero-sum thinking (i.e. the idea that in a game, as much as one side wins, the other loses). All these phenomena, he said, threaten multilateral cooperation. He noted that some big countries are abusing the concept of national security, creating new risks under the banner of derisking, and hampering cultural and technological exchanges under the banner of decoupling between the Chinese and Western economies.

Sung-han Kim, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, University of Korea and former National Security Advisor to the President of the Republic of Korea, spoke about South Korea’s contribution to international development and

We must work together for world peace and prevent the world from being dominated again by the Cold War mentality and zerosum approach – Wu Hongbo

Graphic design: Alexandra Érsek-Csanádi

– György Matolcsy

Wu Hongbo, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on European Affairs

peace. He argued that international relations need inclusiveness and reciprocity, i.e. cooperation that is open to all, sustainable and mutually beneficial.

Cai Xuejun, CEO of China’s Silk Road Fund, underlined the fund’s commitment to open cooperation and greening. He pointed out that they have also increased sustainable investments in digital infrastructure, renewable energy and health. Like the previous speakers, he said that geopolitical tensions were hampering connectivity, but China would continue to promote multilateral cooperation. He also pointed out that Hungary and China have a stable cooperation in areas such as electric vehicles, battery production and digital infrastructure.

The author is managing editor of Eurasia

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CHINA OFFERS AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE FADING BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM

IN THE GEOPOLITICAL PANEL ON THE FIRST DAY OF THIS YEAR’S EURASIA FORUM, WANG HUIYAO, FOUNDING PRESIDENT OF THE CENTER FOR CHINA AND GLOBALIZATION, AND NORBERT CSIZMADIA, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE PALLAS ATHÉNÉ DOMUS MERITI FOUNDATION, DISCUSSED THE CHALLENGES OF THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER AND GLOBALIZATION AND HOW TO SOLVE THESE PROBLEMS.

by Zoltán Pataki Photos: Róbert Hegedüs Norbert Csizmadia, Chairman of the board of trustees of the PADME Foundation and Wang Huiyao, President of the CCG stressed the importance of connectivity

Geopolitics Panel

Wang Huiyao began by saying that the world has entered an era of multipolarity, but that the system of multipolar world order is still missing, and that the challenge for the next period will be to develop it. With regard to the Forum, he stressed that Budapest is the perfect venue for such an event, as the Hungarian capital is the „centre of Eurasia”. Wang Huiyao also proposed that the Hungarian capital would be an ideal location for the next Belt and Road Forum. In his view, Eurasian cooperation should be based on the principle of connectivity.

A „super-connective” Eurasia must be created, he said.

Norbert Csizmadia pointed out that networking is crucial in the process of sustainable globalisation, with connectivity, complexity and sustainability as the three pillars. These are the three watchwords of a multipolar world, he said. According to Norbert Csizmadia, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which turns 10 this year, is the biggest investment in world history.

In response to this, Wang Huiyao said that the current form of globalisation, globalisation based on the Bretton Woods system, is fading. In contrast, there is the Chinese solution to continue globalisation, which offers win-win cooperation to the rest of the world, the global South. The problems of the current system, Wang Huiyao says, have been recognised by the West, which is why projects such as the

Connectivity, complexity and sustainability are the pillars of the multipolar world – Norbert Csizmadia

Belt and Road Initiative - the US Build Back Better, the EU’s Global Gateway and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor - have been invented.

The geopolitical panel discussion was moderated

by Rong Ying, Vice President of China Institute of International Studies, Márton Schőberl, CEO of the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs, Bernard Yeung, Emeritus President of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research, Business School of National University of Singapore, and Cyn-Young Park, Director of the Regional Cooperation and In-

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The new era of cooperation It is in the interest of the whole world that China and the United States establish a stable relationship and help developing countries, Wang Huiyao, founding president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) told Eurasia earlier. “We are entering a multipolar world, and we need to upgrade our system of global governance. This process is going to take some time, with a lot of adjustments. Europe and China can play a very active, constructive role because the first system was largely built by the US. Europe, China, the United States, the Global South, and the developing countries should all work together to build this new global order. We need to have a more developed, inclusive globalisation,” he said. According to Wang Huiyao, “the BRI, in the last decade, has made very significant progress, it has connected China and the world. It’s also a public good that China is trying to provide to developing countries and to the world.” Speaking of the initiative’s future, he said: “I think the next decade of BRI is going to be more inclusive. It should include more actors and have a more multilateral approach”.

Budapest would be an ideal location for the next Belt and Road Forum – Wang Huiyao tegration Department, Asian Development Bank, who joined the discussion via video link.

Márton Schőberl pointed out that the use of economic relations as a weapon leaves the open economies of Central Europe vulnerable. That is why Hungary is open to cooperation with all partners and seeks to attract investments that will consolidate its place in the international economy, he explained.

The author is a foreign policy journalist

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The Economics of Geography

Green transition in finance

11

Capacity building needed to manage sustainable finance – Wang Xin

by Hunor Hoppál

Dániel Palotai, Wang Xin, Nurkhat Kushimov, Kamran Khan and Taehyoung Cho attended the panel discussion

Nameer Khan, Chairman of the MENA Fintech Association and Shadab Taiyabi, President of the Singapore FinTech Association

Green finance, sustainability and the responsibility of financial institutions were on the agenda at the Budapest Eurasia Forum’s financial panel.

Finance Panel

In the opening discussion of the financial panel, Anikó Szombati, Executive Director for Digitalisation and FinTech at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), asked Nameer Khan, Chairman of the MENA Fintech Association, who highlighted the role of the FinTech sector in combating climate change and sustainable development. Shadab Taiyabi, President of the Singapore FinTech Association, stressed the importance of public-private sector collaboration and the goal of making green finance more accessible.

The next roundtable discussion was moderated

by Dániel Palotai, Executive Director of the IMF, and included Taehyoung Cho, Director General of the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute, Kamran Khan, Head of ESG for Asia Pacific at Deutsche Bank, Nurkhat Kushimov, CEO of the Astana Financial Services Authority, and Wang Xin, Director-General of the People’s Bank of China Research Bureau.

According to Nurkhat Kushimov, sustainability, carbon emissions and climate change are global issues that cannot be solved by one country alone.

Kamran Khan said that banks are not shapers of the economy, they merely reflect changes in the economy. Wang Xin pointed out that banks are

We depend on each other, the challenges of one country affect the others, because the air, the ocean and the climate belong to all –Nurkhat Kushimov calling on FinTech companies to help them in their financial risk analysis for climate and nature protection.

The panelists also discussed the problem of greenwashing. Taehyoung Cho drew attention to the key role of information disclosure. He argued that this could reduce the extent of greenwashing by making people aware of the real threats that are posed today.

The author is a journalist

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Photo: MNB/Márton Koncz

Fireside chat between MNB Executive Director Gergely Baksay and Christian H.M. Ketels, Principal Associate of Harvard Business School

It would be a desirable development if the different monetary systems could coexist and cooperate – Zoltán Pozsár

In the opening discussion of the second day of the Budapest Eurasia Forum, Zoltán Pozsár, Founder and CEO of Ex Uno Plures, Inc., said that the link between finance and geopolitics has become much closer in recent decades. As an example, he cited the rivalry between the United States and China, one of the important dimensions of which is precisely economics and finance. In this context, he pointed out that after the Second World War the US dollar became the dominant currency in international finance.

However, this has changed in recent years, and there are two main drivers. On the one hand, the

MNB Executive Director Zsolt Kuti and Zoltán Pozsár, Founder and CEO of Ex Uno Plures held a keynote conversation

THE DOLLAR IS LOSING ITS MONOPOLY

by Zoltán Pataki

THE ROLE OF KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABILITY WAS DISCUSSED BY PARTICIPANTS OF THE ECONOMIC PANEL OF THE BUDAPEST EURASIA FORUM. THEY ALSO DISCUSSED HOW THE ROLE OF THE DOLLAR IS EVOLVING.

Economy panel

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West has started to shorten its supply chains, while the East is increasingly determined to move away from the Western dollar-based system. This will not, of course, lead to the disappearance of the dollar, but other major regional currencies will emerge alongside the US currency. China will play a major role in this, as it intends to turn the renminbi into an international reserve currency.

Christian H. M. Ketels, Principal Associate of Harvard Business School, and Gergely Baksay, Executive Director of the MNB, discussed how this is not the first time that competitiveness has been a major issue in the global economy. In the eighties and nineties, for example, Japan was a competitor to the US, and it also came to the fore in the EU during the sovereign debt crisis.

In the economic panel, Bai Chong-En, Dean of the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, Mariann Gecse, Director of Public Affairs and Communication of Huawei Technolo-

It is good for any state to have a challenger that offers healthy competition – Christian H. M. Ketels gies Hungary – West Balkan, Chris Leck, Group Chief Technology Officer of S&TPPO, Prime Minister’s Office (Singapore), and Lorenzo Tavazzi, Partner and Responsible for the International Department of The European House Ambrosetti, discussed the new emerging economies, moderated by Géza Sebestyén, Head of the Center for Economic Policy at Mathias Corvinus Collegium.

The author is a foreign policy journalist

Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

Géza Sebestyén, Bai Chong-en, Mariann Gecse, Chris Leck and Lorenzo Tavazzi in the economic panel discussion

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New Sustainable Economics

Focus on goals

by Edith Krisztina Dócza

THE SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITIES OF LARGE CORPORATIONS AND THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL GREEN TECHNOLOGY RACE WERE ALSO DISCUSSED IN A PANEL ON MULTILATERAL COOPERATION AT THE BUDAPEST EURASIA FORUM. Ma Jun, President of the Beijing Institute of Finance and Sustainability, was awarded this year’s MNB International Green Finance Lifetime Achievement Scientific Award. Ma Jun is a world-renowned policy advocate for green and sustainable finance, has published numerous papers on monetary policy, financial markets and sustainable finance, and has advised policymakers, financial institutions and investors on a wide range of financial issues over the past 15 years.

In the fireside chat, Ma Jun spoke about how China is close to meeting its 2030 targets, but also saw an emerging green technology race in the world. „China has dominated the production of technologies such as solar panels, batteries, but there are many new technologies such as heat pumps, hydrogen electrolysers,” he explained.

The next panel discussion was moderated by Gábor Gyura, Sustainable finance consultant at the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEPFI). The main topic of the discussion was the concept of corporate social and environ-

mental responsibility (ESG). „The success of ESG depends on how much consumers value a company’s ESG rating. If consumers’ perception is not very strong, the appetite of the company for such investments will not be very strong,” said Raekwon Chung, Board Director of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better Future. Zhu Xufeng, Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM) and Executive Director of the Institute for Sustainable Development Goals at Tsinghua University (TUSDG), said that policies should not be too diversified because companies have different preferences. Benjamin Cashore, Professor and Director of the Institute of Environment and Sustainability at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore pointed out that while the world is trying to respond to various problems with ESG, they are getting worse. Andrew Cross, CFO of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, pointed out that banks have a key role to play in mitigating climate change.

The author is a foreign policy journalist

Multilater al panel

Banks have a key role to play in mitigating climate change. – Andrew Cross

Ma Jun, President of the Beijing Institute of Finance and Sustain­ability received the MNB International Green Finance Lifetime Achievement Scientific Award from Deputy Governor Csaba Kandrács

ESG is not a burden for companies, but a business opportunity – Raekwon Chung

Photo: MNB/Márton Koncz

sustainability

Gábor Gyura, Benjamin Cashore, Raekwon Chung, Andrew Cross and Zhu Xufeng

Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

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Photo: MNB/Márton Koncz

THE ROLE OF METAVERSE IN EURASIAN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

Photo: MNB/Márton Koncz

New Age - New Road

Péter Fáykiss and Bruno Lanvin

Ronit Ghose and Zhang Liping

by Hunor Hoppál

The technology panel roundtable discussion was moderated by Péter Fáykiss, Director of MNB, and featured an exchange of views between Ronit Ghose, Managing Director and Global Head of the Future of Finance at Citi Research, Bruno Lanvin, President of the Smart City Observatory, Zhang Yiqiang, Vice Dean of School of Information Science and Technology of Fudan University, and Zhang Liping, Deputy Director-General of Financial Research Institute pf Development Research Center of the State Council (China).

According to Bruno Lanvin, by putting augmented reality and artificial intelligence into a common database, a larger Metaverse can be created, a framework that also allows for risk-free technological experimentation.

Zhan Yiqiang believes that new technologies will become part of everyday life over time, and that it is worth embracing them and using them for good, rather than rejecting them. Zhang Liping believes that we need to look at how new solutions such as BlockChain can become part of traditional financial management.

Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

THE CHALLENGES OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, ESPECIALLY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, WERE DISCUSSED AT THE TECHNOLOGY PANEL OF THE BUDA­ PEST EURASIA FORUM. A BOOK OF STUDIES PREPARED FOR THE TWO-DAY CONFERENCE WAS ALSO PRESENTED.

MNB Deputy Governor Barnabás Virág presented Eurasia Volume of Studies - Geo Awakenings

According to Ronit Ghose, the producers of new technologies are not well-versed in culture and politics, while the shapers of culture and politics lack technological knowledge, and bridging this asymmetry will be a major challenge in the coming years.

Technology panel

The world is changing faster in the fourth industrial revolution – Sir John O’Reilly

Zoltán Cséfalvay, Head of the MCC’s Technology Futures Workshop, spoke to Sir John O’Reilly, Rector of Khalifa University. ChatGPT is not technically significant, but socially significant, according to Sir O’Reilly. He sees the world changing at an accelerated pace during the fourth industrial revolution, and in terms of artificial intelligence, we are at the discovery and implementation stages.

The technology panel concluded with the launch of the English-language book Geo Awakenings Bulding a sustainable future in the emerging Eurasian era, edited by Barnabás Virág, Deputy Governor of the MNB, and Marcell Horváth, Executive Director of the central bank. In his speech, Barnabás Virág said that the publication contains studies produced this year that explore the links between geopolitics and sustainability within the Eurasian network.

The author is a journalist

Zoltán Cséfalvay, Head of the MCC’s Technology Futures Workshop asked Sir John O’Reilly, Rector of Khalifa University about the possibilities of AI

Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

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2T2 C : Ta l e n t , Te c h n o l o g y ,C a p i t a l , C o g n i t i o n

Levente Horváth, Director of the Eurasia Center and Zhang Renhe, Vice President of Fudan University

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Every year, more and more Asian universities are being ranked among the best higher education institutions, pointed out the Director of the Eurasia Center, Levente Horváth, who was joined by Zhang Renhe, Vice President of Fudan University, which has been ranked among the top 50 universities in recent years. Zhang Renhe said that artificial intelligence is already an active part of everyday university life, not only in administration but also in the classroom. „The market recognizes the effectiveness of our training,” he said.

Attila Kovács, Dean of Budapest Metropolitan University, has already raised a problem that we are seeing signs of today: technological developments are leading to a series of disappearing jobs.

According to Ayham Fayyoumi, Education and Skills Director of PwC Middle East, the big change came with the coronavirus epidemic, when education moved to the online space. He stressed, however, that while many jobs will no longer exist in

Photo: MNB/Márton Koncz

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EDUCATION

by Edith Krisztina Dócza

The main topic of the sixth and final panel of the Budapest Eurasia Forum was how the development of technology is transforming education and the labour market.

Education panel

Half of today’s preschool and primary schoolage children will be doing jobs that do not exist now – Ayham Fayyoumi

the future, around half of today’s pre-school and primary school-age children will be doing jobs that do not exist now. „While digitalisation is happening without a hitch in developed countries, it is far from happening in developing countries,” said Paul Kim, Chief Technology Officer and Associate Dean of the Stanford Graduate School of Education. And Deepak Ohri, Founder and CEO of lebua Hotels and Resorts, warned that as the world transforms, children need to be taught even greater responsibility.

Attila Kovács, Ayham Fayyoumi, Paul Kim and Deepak Ohri

Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

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23 Photo: Róbert Hegedüs

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World-famous economist Jeffrey Sachs and Deputy State Secretery Márton Ugrósdy spoke via video link

Following the roundtable discussion, Kilhwa Jung, Chairman of the Korean Foundation for International Cultural Exchange (KOFICE), gave a presentation on contemporary Korean culture (Hallyu), and the flourishing Hungarian-Korean relations.

Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, focused on the geopolitical transformations that have taken place since the collapse of the Soviet Union. He stressed that Washington’s failure to listen to the world could lead to an escalation of conflicts. As an example, he said that although Russia had warned the Americans not to expand NATO further eastwards, they had not heeded the warnings. Márton Ugrósdy, Deputy State Secretary Heading the Office of the Prime Minister’s Political Director, said the key to solving problems lies in cooperation - of which China is a part - and not isolation.

Without peace there is no economic development, and without economic development there is no peace – Barnabás Virág

The fourth Budapest Eurasia Forum was closed

by Barnabás Virág, Vice President of the central bank. In his speech, he summed up the conference by saying that without peace there is no economic development, and without economic development there is no peace.

The author is a foreign policy journalist

INSTITUTE

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– What tendencies should we be prepared for in terms of the future of education?

– While there are excellent education programs worldwide, many remain inaccessible or unaffordable for most learners. To build a better future, education models should emphasize inclusion, diversity, and equality, rather than fostering self-centred attitudes that could lead to societal conflicts. The ultimate aim is to create a collaborative and equitable learning environment where every student is valued and supported, ensuring no one is left behind. Key best practices include personalised learning tailored to each student, expert coaching to unlock individual potential, extensive digitalisation and automation, using technologies like AI to reduce educators’ administrative work, and holistic education that fosters personal development and shared peace and prosperity in safe environments.

Education is undoubtedly a potent tool for fostering economic development and a sustainable future”

Education enhances connectivity

by Mariann Őry Photos: Róbert Hegedüs

“MOVING AWAY FROM TEACHING TO STAN-

AND ASSOCIATE DEAN OF STANFORD GRAD-

DARDISED TESTS AND INSTEAD FOCUSING

UATE SCHOOL OF EDUCATION. WE SAT DOWN

ON INDIVIDUAL COACHING TO MAXIMISE

AT THE BUDAPEST EURASIA FORUM TO DIS-

UNIQUE TALENTS IS CRUCIAL,” ACCORDING

CUSS HIS EXPERIENCES AND IDEAS OF THE

TO PAUL KIM, CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER

FUTURE OF EDUCATION.

– What do you see as the secret of the success of China and East Asian countries in education?

– First, East Asian countries have a long-standing cultural and historical respect for education and educators. Second, international conflicts and events in the 19th century taught them that embracing new methodologies and technological advancements benefits rapid industrial development.

Third, this region tends to have a stronger sense of national pride and cohesion compared to other parts of the world. Fourth, many parents in the region have high aspirations for their children, hoping they will achieve what they themselves could not, contributing to the incredibly high spending on their child’s education and intense competition.

However, this intense competition has also led to some negative outcomes. Although education in these regions is certainly linked to economic growth, the excessive pressure associated with it can negatively impact the overall well-being and happiness of the children.

– How can education contribute to strengthening connectivity in Eurasia?

– Education in Eurasia has the potential to significantly enhance regional connectivity by adopting a comprehensive approach that incorporates

The ultimate aim is to create a collaborative and equitable learning environment where every student is valued and supported, ensuring no one is left behind” various essential elements. Integrating global citizenship education into all K-16 (Kindergarten to college) curriculums is crucial, as it develops a sense of responsibility and interconnectedness among students, urging them to think beyond national borders and consider the global community.

This is closely linked with understanding and addressing regional and local challenges through education that focuses on collective real-world problem-solving, allowing students to tackle the most pressing issues affecting both their local and broader environments in the 21st century.

The author is managing editor of Eurasia

Rhymes in history

„The regional major and middle powers of the global South are becoming increasingly influential in the world”

WORLD REGIME

— change —

UNDERWAY

by Márton Békés

THE SHIFT IN WORLD ORDER THAT BEGAN IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 2010S AND ACCELERATED IN THE EARLY 2020S TOOK SHAPE THIS YEAR, MOST NOTABLY IN THE EXPANSION OF ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY FORUMS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH. The second issue of the 21st Century Institute’s TREND publication focused on the rise of regional super and middle powers. The research came to the unsurprising conclusion that, in the context of the emergence of a multipolar world order - what we call a world order change in political and intellectual terms - the emergence of China, a potential regional superpower, India and a competing Russia, should be considered at least as important as the United States, which retains some form of power. They are followed by the regional middle powers that have been on the rise over the last five to ten years.

Here we have the world’s largest landmass (Russia), the engine of the global economy (China) and the most populous country on earth (India), then five Muslim regional middle powers (Turkey, Saudi

Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia), and finally two dominant continental powers (Brazil and South Africa).

It is a logical development of the nature of the world order that they all tend to be counted as part of the global South, a term that is becoming less a geographical and more an economic-political one, suggesting that the global North has been reduced to a narrow area of the globe, located on both sides of the Atlantic (EU, Canada and USA), plus its an-

„The BRI countries account for about forty percent of world GDP and two-thirds of the world’s population”

nexes (Australia, Japan, New Zealand). The shift in the balance of power is illustrated by the fact that the economic growth rate of the five BRICS countries has this year overtaken that of the G7.

By the mid-2010s, it had become clear that US global hegemony was facing two challenges, which

Photo: AFP/Alet Pretorius

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were not unrelated. One is the threat from Eurasia, or more narrowly China, which is manifesting itself industrially and commercially, even diplomatically, and the other is the rise of the global South, which is increasingly linked to it in political and economic terms.

Several events in 2023 underline the acceleration of these processes. These include the historic Iran-­Saudi peace deal brokered by Chinese diplomacy in the spring, or the fatigue felt as the Russian-­Ukrainian war dragged on, exacerbated by the military and diplomatic dimension of the Israeli-Gaza conflict. And three major events this year are particularly topical: the enlargement of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the BRICS summit in August 2023

The outlines of a new multipolar world order can be discerned from the signs pointing to multipolarity, a shift in the structure of globalisation from unipolar to bipolar arrangements, and the emergence of a Eurasian pole and a related but also self-divided global South.

The author is a political historian and director of the 21st Century Institute

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Culture and Innovation

www.pallasathenekiado.hu Kurt Campbell

Moritz Pieper

The Pivot

The Making of Eurasia

The Future of American Statecraft in Asia

K N OW L E D G E • VA LU E C R E AT I O N • C O M M U N I T Y I n t e r n a t i o n a l s c i e n t i fi c a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l b e s t s e l l e r s i n H u n g a r i a n and books with powerful thoughts from Hungary

Our recent volumes:

Publisher: I.B. Tauris Publisher: Twelve

Publication date: 2021

Publication date: 2016

ISBN: 978-1838601379

ISBN: 978-1455568956

Pages: 184

Pages: 432

The book presents the transformation and military engagement of American foreign policy, diplomacy, trade and economic relations with Asia. The author, Kurt M. Campbell, former US Deputy Secretary of State, is one of the most influential figures in the Obama administration’s pivot or “rebalancing” policy towards Asia. Although the author’s book analyses the background and causes of America’s foreign policy rebalance to Asia, he offers instructive and important insights into the making of what many are calling the “Asian Century”.

Campbell examines how and what strategy the United States should develop in order to manoeuvre properly in Asia and not lose ground in the region. The book is a particularly fascinating read for anyone who wants to understand the movements of US diplomacy and strategy towards Asia today.

The system of relations between China and Russia extends not only to each other, but also to the regions and countries surrounding them, becoming a strange rivalry. Making of Eurasia examines and presents the Eurasian politics of these two neighbouring superpowers, China and Russia, and their multi-layered relations with each other, from competition to military, technological and economic cooperation.

The work of Moritz Pieper from the German Foreign Service, a former research fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin, attempts to contextualise Chinese and Russian regional policy in the field of international relations.

Based on the author's case studies in Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan, the book offers a unique comparative perspective on Russian and Chinese economic interests in Central Asia.

NORBERT CSIZMADIA:

Geovision I–II.

GYÖRGY MATOLCSY

Magyar jövőkép és stratégia

VACLAV SMIL

Nagy átmenetek

PallasAtheneKiado

pabookstore

Pallas Athéné Könyvkiadó

pallas athenekiado

GYÖRGY MARX

The Voice of the Martians

Ancient Knowledge in a Modern World

DISCOVERING THE SILK ROAD

by Rita Jeney - Zoltán Wilhelm

HUNGARIAN-BORN ARCHAEOLOGIST AURÉL STEIN WAS JUSTLY MADE WORLD FAMOUS BY THE UNIQUE ACHIEVEMENTS OF HIS THREE SUCCESSFUL EXPEDITIONS IN ASIA. Aurél Stein was born on 26 November 1862 in Budapest. After studying comparative linguistics and classical philology, Sanskrit and Old Persian at the university, he expanded his knowledge at the universities and libraries of England.

At the age of 25, in 1887, he arrived in Lahore to take up the post of Registrar of the Punjabi University and Principal of the Oriental College, while teaching Sanskrit language and literature. From then until the age of forty-eight, he was in the service of British education: after Lahore, he spent a year in Bengal in 1899 and then in the North-West Frontier Province of British India until 1910.

For Aurél Stein, India was much more than a place of office from the beginning. In Kashmir, he collected ancient manuscripts, discovering what is

considered the most authentic Sanskrit version of a 12th century royal chronicle, the Rajatarangini, and then producing a critical edition and English translation.

His attention had already turned to Inner Asia at the end of the 19th century: a special meeting point for the civilisations of the ancient world, thanks to the Silk Road, a network of trade routes that ran along the edge of the Taklamakan Desert and linked Europe to Asia.

The unique achievements of his three successful archaeological expeditions have made him justly world famous. He set out on his first expedition to Inner Asia in 1900, making significant archaeological and geographical discoveries, returning the following year. His second expedition (1906-1909) was more extensive in space and time, bringing unprecedented scientific success and numerous awards. On his third expedition to Inner Asia (1913-1916), he reached as far as the Gobi Desert.

„Aurél Stein left behind a lasting legacy as a polyhistor who enriched modern science with universal values through his holistic cultivation of archaeology, philology, art history, geography, cartography and cultural anthropology”

Source: Wikipedia

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Aurel Stein, 1909

Photo: iStock

Afghanistan and the ancient Bactria region were also coveted research areas, and he was finally granted a research permit in 1943. Although he reached Kabul, he was unable to start his research due to ill health. He died in Kabul on 28 October 1943, aged 81, and his grave is in the Christian cemetery in Kabul.

Rita Jeney is an archaeologist, Indologist and Associate Professor at Bhaktivedanta College Zoltán Wilhelm is a geographer, habilitated associate professor (University of Pécs), director of the Asia Centre, former director of the Hungarian Information and Cultural Centre in Delhi

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