BullsEye 76

eds european democrat students

The magazine of European Democrat Students

BREXIT 4 VENEZUELA 6 INF 7 SAUDI ARABIA 8 US & CHINA 9 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 10 ITALY 12

FINLAND 13 POLAND 14 CROATIA 15 BULGARIA 16 UKRAINE 17 AFGHANISTAN 18 SHIPPING 20

REVENGE PORN 22 MIGRATION 26 WORLD ECONOMY 27 MENTAL HEALTH 28 UNIVERSITY FEES 29

No. 76 | May 2019 | 57th Year | ISSN 2033-7809

Dear readers,

CONTENTS: CURRENT AFFAIRS

It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to Issue 76 of BullsEye, the official magazine of the European Democrat Students. With this issue, the year 2018-2019 comes to an end and this time, it also implies that this is the last issue I am leading together with our Editor-in-Chief, Julien Sassel. It has to be said that, while the responsibility of the editorial has always been on him, this time, the circumstances made it so that it will be my duty, as Vice-Chairman for publications, to write it.

04 POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF

A HARD BREXIT FOR THE NETHERLANDS

Speaking of changes, this issue will be a bit different from the previous ones as we do not have a Theme section, which is usually related to the Theme of the Council Meeting linked to the publication of BullsEye. As we currently do not know when and where this issue will be presented, we decided to scrap this section, providing more spaces for other sections and other topics. This is why, as European elections are nearing, we preferred to focus on this important moment of democracy which will determine the balance of power within the EU institutions for the next five years. In this section, we will discuss horizontal elements such as the question of the future coalition in the European Parliament, thanks to Desislava Kemalova, but also continue to discuss the current situation in various countries, thanks to Francesco Sismondini, Janika Takatalo, Tomasz Kaniecki, Ciprijan Crljenko and Teodora Hristova. Among the topics to rank high in the European elections, there will certainly be the future relations between the EU and the UK. At this stage, we still do not know what will happen, but after several articles on the situation in the UK, we felt the need to attract the attention on what will happen on the continent.

For this reason, Iris Bouma will discuss the implications of Brexit on the Netherlands.

As recent demonstrations have shown, many citizens are concerned by climate change and how it is caused by human activity. Iacovos Iacovou presents us how shipping has an impact on it and how this industry is trying to decrease its impact. Another topic which is increasingly worrying is the state of the world economy and the impact of the commercial conflict between the US and China, as both Aura Tortosa and Vladimir Milic will analyse. Finally, we will cover the question of migration, thanks to Johannes Bürgin.

At the same time, we kept a look on what happens in the world, in the neighbourhood, as we cover the elections in Ukraine, thanks to Hubert Tadych; the US-Russia relations and the end of the INF treaty, thanks to Pavlina Pavlova, and in more distant areas, such as Venezuela, thanks to Santiago de la Presilla; Saudi Arabia, thanks to Christie Maike; and Afghanistan, thanks to Elie-Joe Dergham. Finally, among the questions affecting the youth and students, Valentina Podestà and Mattia Caniglia discuss the particularly worrying trend of revenge porn. In the same vein, Gloria Müller debates on the topic of students' mental health. Last but not least, Johanna Gruber covers the tricky topic of university fees for foreign students.

09 END OF TRUCE IN TRADE WAR BETWEEN

THE US AND CHINA

As a conclusion, I want to thank the whole editorial teams of the last two years, Anna, Desislava, Elie-Joe, Johanna, Johannes, Kristina, Maciej, Mattia, Neil, Ramy, Sabine, Santiago, Sarah, Teodoras, Vladimir Kljajic and Vladimir Milic, for their work. It has been a real pleasure to collaborate on this great project.

I wish you a pleasant reading.

Tommi Pyykkö Vice-Chairman for Publications

ISSN: Print: 2033-7809 Online: 2033-7817 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Julien Sassel VICE-CHAIR FOR PUBLICATIONS: Tommi Pyykkö EDITORIAL TEAM: Johannes Bürgin, Mattia Caniglia, Santiago de la Presilla, Elie-Joe Dergham, Beppe Galea, Johanna Gruber, Sabine Hanger, Desislava Kemalova, Vladimir Milic, Anna Mkrtchyan.

CONTRIBUTIONS: Iris Bouma, Ciprijan Crljenko, Iacovos Iacovou, Teodora Hristova, Tomasz Kaniecki, Christie Maike, Gloria Müller, Pavlina Pavlova, Valentina Podestà, Francesco Sismondini, Hubert Tadych, Janika Takatalo, Aura Tortosa

06 VENEZUELA: MADURO AND THE

END OF CHAVISM 07 INF TREATY WITHDRAWALS 08 IMOHAMMED BIN SALMAN:

AN OLD-FASHIONED LIBERAL

SERIES – EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 10 SHOULD THE EPP STRIVE TO MAINTAIN

THE “GRAND COALITION” IN

THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT? 12

EUROPA FELIX? ITALY IS PREPARING ITSELF FOR THE EUROPEAN CHALLENGE

13

FINLAND’S SUPER SPRING OF ELECTIONS

14

KEY YEAR, KEY ELECTIONS – AN OUTLINE OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN POLAND

15

EUROPEAN WAY OF CROATIA; YOUNGEST MEMBER OF THE UNION

16

THE CURIOUS CASE OF EUROPEAN ELECTIONS IN BULGARIA

17

A CLASH OF TWO OLIGARCHS OR A CHANCE FOR NEW POLITICS?

BE ON 18 THE UNENDING CONFLICT –

AFGHAN ROADMAP 20 UNITED NATIONS 2030 AGENDA,

SUSTAINABILITY AND SHIPPING 22 REVENGE PORN: A REPORTAGE ON A

VERY EUROPEAN PROBLEM 26 WHAT SHOULD THE CENTRE-RIGHT

STAND FOR IN TERMS OF MIGRATION

AND ASYLUM POLICIES? 27 ENDGAME – WHAT LIES BEHIND THE

SLOWDOWN OF THE WORLD GROWTH? UNIVERSITIES 28 MENTAL HEALTH MATTERS?! –

REALITY CHECK AT EUROPEAN UNIVERSITIES 29 FOREIGN STUDENTS: WHY

THEY SHOULD PAY MORE THAN NATIONALS

30 BULLSEYE EDITORIAL TEAM 31 BUREAU

PHOTOS: Àkos Kaiser, Unsplash, Pixabay, EPP, Shutterstock, Tiina Puputti, Wikimedia Commons DESIGN: Markus Konow PUBLISHER: European Democrat Students, B-1000 Brussels, Rue du Commerce 10 TEL: +(32) 228 541 50 FAX: +(32) 228 541 41 EMAIL: students@epp.org WEBSITE: www.edsnet.eu Articles and opinions published in the magazine do not necessarily reflecting the positions of EDS, the EDS Bureau or the Editorial team.

Publication supported by the Erasmus + Programme of the European Union and European Youth Foundation of the Council of Europe.

The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsment of the contents which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

It is my pleasure to welcome you to the last issue of BullsEye under my responsibility as EDS Chairman.

appointing numerous ambassadors throughout Europe to support his candidacy, especially within the universities.

First of all I want to thank the Editor-in-Chief Julien Sassel and the Vice Chairman for publications Tommi PyykkĂś for the amazing work, the loyalty and professionality offered to EDS and BullsEye.

Another important moment has been in Cyprus, where during our Study Visit we were able to experience the division that still exists within an EU state.

From our last historical Winter University in Barcelona, which reformed the statutes and stressed the importance for Catalonia being in the Kingdom of Spain and in the European Union.

EDS committed itself alongside our European Commission presidential candidate Manfred Weber, also by organizing a major youth event in Athens and by

CHAIRMAN’S LETTER

Dear friends, For now, please enjoy reading this issue of BullsEye and keep in mind that the EDS Bureau is always interested in receiving feedback, hearing your ideas, and discovering more ways to proudly serve students across Europe.

Ciao!

Virgilio Falco Chairman of European Democrat Students

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

3

Deal or no deal? Political and economic implications of a hard Brexit for the Netherlands

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, this will have great implications for the Netherlands, both politically and economically speaking. The country would lose a dear friend and, within an EU context, often likeminded neighbour. The liberal, Eurosceptic British often fitted in well with the Dutch policy of a small and trade-oriented EU. This article gives an overview of the possible political and economic consequences a hard Brexit would have for the Netherlands. We will also have a quick look at other member states the Netherlands potentially can cooperate with after Brexit, in order to get shared positions on EU matters on the European agenda.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES FOR THE NETHERLANDS IN THE CASE OF A HARD BREXIT

The Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK) do a lot of business. In fact, the UK is the third most important export country for the Netherlands, after Germany and Belgium. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) calculated the impact of Brexit on the Dutch economy. The damage caused by less trade with the UK could amount to 1.2 % of gross domestic product in 2030, for an amount of 10 billion euros. Less trade may also lead to less innovation in different sectors.

The Netherlands is one of the countries that will be hardest hit by a so-called hard Brexit, according to a projection by the International Monetary Fund in 2018. In this scenario, the UK would become a third country for the EU and will fall back on the rules of the World Trade Organisation. In fact, for Dutch companies, the UK will become a country such as Australia or Argentina. This could cost the

4

Netherlands 0.7 % of gross domestic product (GDP). The IMF calculation shows that only Ireland would be hit harder.

In case of a hard Brexit, it would become more difficult to export fish, flowers and tomatoes. This is problematic for the Netherlands since it is the largest exporter of agricultural food products to the United Kingdom. Moreover, the open account for the British has been set at 39 billion euros.

If there is an agreement, they will transfer that amount to the European Union account. But if there is no agreement, European countries will have to pay for it themselves, which will mean a few billion extra contributions for the Netherlands. And that in turn has an impact on government finances. It could be the difference between a budget surplus or deficit.

HOPE FOR THE BEST, PREPARE FOR THE WORST?

“A thorough preparation takes time, and certainty about the outcome of the negotiations

will come too late�- this is how the Dutch government warned Dutch companies to start early to prepare for all Brexit scenarios on the table. To enable the business community to prepare properly, the government decided to offer the Dutch business community various forms of support. Immediately after the referendum, a Brexit counter (www.brexitloket.nl) was established, connected to the Netherlands Enterprise Agency and the Chamber of Commerce.

Entrepreneurs have the opportunity to contact this counter with all their questions about Brexit. An activation tool was also launched, which enables companies to map out which preparations are important in the run-up to the date of the UK's withdrawal from the EU. For example, mapping the consequences for imports, exports, contracts, digital data, intellectual property, transport and supply. Entrepreneurs were also assisted in intensifying trade with third countries in order to mitigate the consequences of Brexit, and entrepreneurs were

BullsEye

»A departure from the United Kingdom makes the Netherlands more important on the European stage – which is good news, but it also brings difficulties.« helped to seize the opportunities of Brexit.

Brexit also offers opportunities for Dutch companies. British entrepreneurs will soon be less competitive in trade with the EU in some sectors. This will make it easier for Dutch entrepreneurs to look for other markets for their products. Because of Brexit, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has moved from London to Amsterdam, which provides visitors and direct spending in the Netherlands.

POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF A HARD BREXIT FOR THE NETHERLANDS

The liberal, Eurosceptic British often fitted in well with the Dutch policy of a small and trade-oriented EU. This was particularly important in the Council of the European Union, where ministers decide on European laws and regulations,

and in the European Council.

A departure from the United Kingdom makes the Netherlands more important on the European stage – which is good news, but it also brings difficulties. Because working with one large United Kingdom is much easier than working with ten small countries from Northern and Eastern Europe.

Where does the Netherlands need to look for potential new ‘friends’ to team up with? VNO-NCW, a Dutch employers’ federation, pointed out a few combinations of countries that agree with the Netherlands on certain topics:

•

EU budget: Denmark + Finland + Austria + Sweden

•

Budgetary discipline: Denmark + Estonia + Finland + Ireland + Latvia +

Lithuania + Sweden •

Internal market: Hungary + Poland + Slovakia + Czechia

GOODBYE MY LOVER, GOODBYE MY FRIEND

As demonstrated by looking at the possible economic and political consequences a hard Brexit could have, the Netherlands should brace itself for the worst. But it also has taken all the possible preparatory measures in order to reduce the impact a hard Brexit could have, a scenario that is becoming more likely by the day. ‘Better to have a good neighbour than a distant friend’ is a famous proverb in the Netherlands – but the Dutch will have to get used to appreciate a new, long-distance kind of relationships.

Iris Bouma

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

5

Venezuela: Maduro and the end of Chavism

After two disastrous decades of socialism, there is reason to be hopeful about the oil-rich Caribbean nation.

Like many Venezuelans my age, as soon as I was done with high school, I packed my bags and left the country behind in search of a better future in Europe. But not everyone was as lucky as me. The situation deteriorated so swiftly that it was close to impossible to keep up with what happened.

Even though Venezuela was always a land that received people from all over the world with open arms throughout the 20th century, the last four years Venezuela has seen a massive mass emigration with up to 3.2 million people leaving to mostly neighbouring countries like Colombia and Brazil, and some of them to Ecuador and Peru. By UN estimates, 2 million more could leave by the end of 2019. To put that into perspective, that is more than 15% of the country’s population, an exodus that can be compared to refugee crises such as the Syrian and Afghan ones. But what are Venezuelans fleeing? They are running from an oppressive, socialist regime that has deprived its people of food, medicine, electricity and even water. The average citizen of a nation with the largest proven oil reserves on Earth has lost about 11kg last year. It is startling to see overweight regime officials eating in luxurious steakhouses while most Venezuelans are forced to go through the garbage to look for food during a countrywide blackout.

WHAT CHANGED?

After more than two decades of disastrous Bo-

livarian socialism, driven by the forceful takeover of most private companies and land and the stuffing of the state-owned oil company with Chavez’s cronies, most Venezuelans, including myself, remained cynical about the possibility for any sort of possible change. Inflation is at seven digits, medicine remains scarce, opposition leaders are jailed, protesters are killed and elections are rigged. The opposition rightfully boycotted the presidential elections that took place in May 2018, and no country that could call itself democratic recognized the results. Given the fact Venezuela found itself without a legitimate president, per the constitution, the president of the national assembly, Juan Guaidó, was next in line. He assumed the office of interim president on 23 January, surprising many in both the government and the opposition. The world’s leading democracies immediately recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president.

The overwhelming majority of Latin America followed suit. Unsurprisingly, authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, have doubled down on Maduro.

INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE HELPS

Venezuela has many friends in Europe.

The European Parliament along with its president Antonio Tajani have been a powerful voice in the midst of the crisis.

The fact the Italian government is still split on this issue is mindboggling, as more than 140,000 Italians reside in Venezuela. EU countries that choose to remain

neutral will quickly find themselves on the wrong side of history.

Sanctions are and will remain the most effective method of pressuring Maduro’s regime. Those who have pillaged the country’s coffers cannot continue to buy entire apartment blocks in Europe’s capitals and send their kids to college in Western countries. The Maduro regime is not a government as most people know a government, similar to Putin’s Russia, it operates like a mafia, where state resources are split between loyalists and very little trickles down to the people.

Some officials and high-ranking military have already pledged their allegiance to president Guaidó, but the core generals have refused to do so out of fear. Those who step out of line are brutally executed. Some continue their support of Maduro to maintain their riches.

Talk of dialogue is cheap, as it has been attempted before and only resulted in further loss of life. Targeted sanctions as well a complete embargo on Venezuelan oil is the only action that will make the military choose the constitutional path. Those who believe Russia and China will continue to pour money into an inept regime on its last days underestimate how much these nation’s governments just want to get paid. Only with the Maduro regime on the run will Venezuela be able to have free and fair elections.

President Guaidó has given something that Venezuelans have not had after decades of disaster: hope.

Santiago de la Presilla

6

BullsEye

INF Treaty Withdrawals: We did not start it, but we will respond Signed in 1987 between the United States and the USSR, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was a landmark achievement in arms control, eliminating an entire category of nuclear weapons from the US and Soviet arsenals. With both global powers suspending their obligations under the pact in early 2019, are we on the verge of new arms race? And if, who is to blame?

To the world that still remembers the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the INF Treaty offered great relief. It required the destruction of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range capability between 500 and 5,500 kilometres—successfully banning their possession, production, and flight-testing. The verification regime included in the pact was the most detailed and stringent in the history of nuclear arms control for its time, and the treaty itself had unlimited duration. Its suspension as announced by the US administration on 1 February 2019, followed by Russia’s statement on 4 March, is now marking the end of an era.

Since the Obama administration, the US has been bringing Russia’s non-compliance with its obligations to public attention. The disagreement came over the 2014 flight testing of a new Russian ground-fired cruise missile Novator 9M729 (NATO code SSC8), which allegedly travels at prohibited ranges. In October 2018, Washington announced its intentions to withdraw from the treaty after a suspected deployment of the missile in 2017. Moscow denied the allegations, labelling them ‘fake news’, and countered by raising three points of concern: the Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defence system, ballistic target missiles, and armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs); the US refuted these accusations in detail, proving that actions in these areas were in compliance with the treaty.

In the midst of the political blame game, each side has been counting their blessings.

Each can now pursue research and development of its own intermediate-range missiles to counterbalance the other. Indeed, the US suspension was followed by Russia’s announcement of its plans to develop new weapons; and it would not be the Trump administration if it did not answer with a counter-promise of spending billions on US missile defence systems. As the President put

it in the 2019 State of the Union: should no future deal be achieved, the US would “outspend and out-innovate all others by far“.

However, the promise may fall short when it comes to its delivery, as the administration has not requested any significant boost to the respective US Defence Department’s budget and thus effectively limited its purchasing power too much to execute the defence strategy.

There is also the Chinese factor to keep in mind. At the time of signing the treaty, the global supplies of intermediate-range missiles were limited to the two Cold War superpowers and the European NATO members. Since then however, other countries unconstrained by similar obligations freely developed and tested comparable weapons.

Indeed, such arms have become of particular importance to the Chinese army. Pulling out of the treaty thus brings more flexibility to address the growing military threat from Asia, whilst also possibly preparing the ground for a wider, future agreement. Yet this scenario may be difficult to reach. Russia has been historically interested in arms control when it felt like falling behind. While misconceptions about its military strength have been misleading in the past, re-armament on both sides could lead to a dangerous arms race.

The operational landscape has also changed substantially over the last three decades. The INF Treaty limited the large number of relatively inaccurate nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles flowing into Europe in the post-détente period of the 1980s which had caused uneasiness among the public. The military buildup of Warsaw Pact countries steered the great European missile debate, accompanied by large protests, which pressed NATO into adopting the double-track decision. With a combination of defence solutions, including the threat of deploying more middle-range nuclear weapons in Western Europe, and a proposal for dialogue, the Western bloc brought the USSR to the negotiating table.

This development was a great achievement, as the class of missiles it covered was considered particularly destabilising for a continent divided by the Cold War: the missiles in question were designed for near-instant mass destruction, given their uniquely short flight times which allowed for little to no early warning and their destructive power which was comparable to intercontinental ballistic missiles. The current focus is on long-range conventionally-armed cruise missiles with a sophisticated satellite navigation allowing precise targeting employed mostly on affecting critical infrastructure.

Additionally, the INF Treaty has covered ground-launched missiles only, thereby allowing the development of submarines capable of firing a missile from virtually any underwater position in the meantime.

With both countries announcing new arms developments, one cannot escape parallels with the past when the superpowers engaged in a Cold War game of “anything you can do I can do better”. Only this time, the number of actors have multiplied. The future will show whether the bilateral breakdown does end up in a breakup all together. For now, the New START Treaty is in place, which sets the goal of reducing the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers by half until 2021 and which President Trump characterized as "one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration". Europe’s ideal scenario— the return to treaty compliance - has been brushed aside for now, making the postINF Treaty world wide open for speculations. It can be a place where NATO coordinates a cohesive strategy leading to a new comprehensive agreement—or we may, as well, be witnessing competition where one side tries to persuade the other with “sooner or later I'm greater than you”.

Pavlina Pavlova

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

7

Mohammed Bin Salman: An Old-Fashioned Liberal

On 2 October 2018, the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. After his disappearance, politicians and pundits called on the European Union and its allies to hold Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman responsible for the crime.

International pressure on Mohammed bin Salman (also known as MBS), has put forth questions regarding the future developments of the European Union’s relations with Saudi Arabia. Ever since MBS took charge, the EU keeps trying to keep the kingdom’s ruler in check without damaging its own vital interests.

Saudi foreign policy today is more assertive than it has been for the past three decades, following the 1979 Iranian Revolution. In previous years, Saudi decline in foreign policy gave leeway to the rise of Iranian influence in the Middle East. Trying to reinvigorate an active foreign policy has taken a major toll on Saudi Arabia’s international reputation. The ineffective military intervention in Yemen’s civil war has aggravated the humanitarian crisis. The several blockades on Qatar have created a crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council. The detention of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Riyadh, the feud with Canada, and withdrawal of the kingdom’s German Ambassador have created several diplomatic spats.

MONOPOLY OVER THE THRONE

Mohammed bin Salman has proved to be a textbook case of power politics himself.

Since his appointment as crown prince, he quickly consolidated power by bringing the most important domestic security bodies, including the national intelligence service and elite special forces, under his direct control. In the previous years, these organs had been scattered among several royal figures.

Moreover, MBS appointed one of his supporters as the head of the National Guard, selected his brother as Vice-Minister of Defence, and replaced many key royal governors with close allies, giving him active control

of Saudi Arabia’s security establishments.

With the King’s tight control over so many institutions, it would be nearly impossible for any faction within the royal family to organize against him, even if foreign powers such as the European Union or United States threaten to cut ties.

LIBERAL HERO OR AUTHORITARIAN VILLAIN?

Domestically, Mohammed bin Salman has pinned his future on Vision 2030, his economic reform plan, which will transform Saudi economy and society. The 2030 package envisions a monarchy that relies less on oil industries, which would be reduced from 50% to 16% of the GDP, and more on other revenues, such as petrochemicals, solar power, and tourism. He even announced a new investment of USD 500 billion in a new economic zone dubbed Neom. Middle-class urban Saudis perceive the 33-year-old King as a visionary young reformer because of these recent modernization initiatives.

In addition, the crown prince has taken many actions to empower women in public life. A movie theatre was built where men and women sit together, and women were permitted to attend sporting events. Moreover, the driving ban on women was lifted, and women were given the right to vote.

Similarly, MBS sought to reduce the power of the conservative Wahhabi clergy. In 2016, he introduced a decree which restricts the powers of the mutaween, the local police forces which had been tasked with “promoting virtue and preventing vice”. Music and gender-mixing are no longer deemed immoral, allowing more room for concerts and music shows to flourish. Yet, at the same time, any space for freedom of expression has vanished.

As sweeping as MBS’s economic and cul-

tural reforms may be, he has expressed no interest in liberalizing the country’s political system. According to Human Rights Watch, a minimum of 11 women rights activists were arrested in May 2018 – just one month before the driving ban on women was officially lifted. Even earlier in November, the crown prince detained 381 persons, including more than 20 influential princes, businessmen and clerics, as part of an anti-corruption crackdown. Modernizing initiatives have been based on a Chinese-model approach which aims to consolidate the House of Saud’s authoritarian power while keeping the public satisfied. For the crown prince, Saudi citizens should understand that the liberalization of religious, cultural, and economic life did not come because of civil disobedience, but because their rulers had issued a decree.

KEEPING AN EYE ON VISION 2030

For the first time, major decisions are being adopted much faster without waiting for the slow consensus among the royal family’s ruling members. Therefore, as the sole decision maker, MBS’ behaviour can either improve or further provoke the deteriorating relations with the international community. Shunning Mohammed Bin Salman will not likely serve the interest of Western powers, as Saudi Arabia can serve as a great ally in regulating the energy market, increasing security cooperation, and countering the growing Iranian influence in the Middle East. As for the crown prince, success would likely mean ascending to the throne of a more powerful and prosperous kingdom, with his national and international adversaries eventually subdued.

With a quest to take back control, one thing is certain: no Saudi official has been more applauded and vilified at the same time as Mohamed bin Salman.

Christie Maike

8

BullsEye

End of truce in trade war between the US and China The world's largest economies that make up more than 40% of global GDP entered into a trade war last year. The truce deadline, that was previously agreed during the G20 Summit in Argentina, expired on 1 March but was extended until further notice. Despite the introduction of new tariffs being postponed, the previous ones have already produced headaches around the globe. Well-respected economist Mario Mesquita estimates that a fullblown US-China tariff war could reduce global GDP growth by 0.7% this year.

Relations between the two powers entered unchartered territory following the election of US President Donald Trump and his ‘’America first’ policy,’ which have led to scrutiny of China’s trade practices. Alleged unfair trade practices were the reason for imposing $250 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. China responded with countermeasures.

In January of this year, trade talks started with the goal to resolve disputes and end the trade war. Negotiations were expected to be completed by the beginning of March, but this did not materialize. Nevertheless, both sides said that an agreement is within reach, and talks have continued since.

According to the ‘’China-briefing’’, discussions have been divided into two key areas – ‘trade issues’, which included trade imbalances in certain sectors, and ‘structural issues’, such as forced technology transfers, intellectual property protection and non-tariff barriers.

The primary reason for starting the trade war were ‘structural issues’ such as intellectual theft, especially in regard to technology. The US sanctions are intended to punish China for deploying strong-arm

tactics in its drive to become a global technology power. American businesses have repeatedly complained about the government-supported theft of trade secrets by Chinese firms. In a 2018 survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, more than half of its members reported that leakage of intellectual property was a larger concern when doing business in China than elsewhere. The Chinese government also offers industrial subsidies for domestic companies which role it considers strategic. The aim of such policies is to develop from being a low-end manufacturer to becoming a high-end producer of goods. Companies are also forced to form joint ventures with Chinese firms if they want to do business in China. It violates World Trade Organization rules that Beijing agreed to when it joined in December 2001. However, the US has ignored such practices and violations for a long time.

Now it seems that the China is winning the tech race and the US does not want to give up easily. Shenzhen in China is becoming the next Silicon Valley. It is home to many of the world’s largest and most innovative hi-tech Fortune 500 companies and is the tech manufacturing capital of the world. It makes America nervous, as they feel as if they are falling behind.

Trade imbalances have united both American parties, because the deficit with China is persistent and growing fast. China has already committed to import more US agricultural products, which should be followed with energy, industrial products and services. Trump's administration will also be looking for the Chinese to abolish restrictive regulations that make it difficult for US businesses to operate in China, as well as ownership restrictions.

The trade war has created problems on both sides. American companies like Walmart, which imports billions of dollars of cheap goods from China, are under the immediate impact, as well as their customers and their living standards. The trade war will not bring jobs back to the US and recent numbers show that the deficit with the China has increased in 2018. On the other side of the Pacific, the trade war has hit exports. China's top trading partner is the US which makes around 20% of its exports. Some companies are already moving from China to other countries in Southeast Asia, as well as in India. The lower export numbers mean fewer jobs.

China has been labelled by the US as a strategic competitor, not only in economy and finance, but also as security and political threat. Further escalation would deepen the slowdown in economic growth and put pressure on both governments.

President Donald Trump has pledged that any deal will contain “strong enforcement language’ that guarantees that China actually takes steps it has committed to in the negotiations. It is still unclear as to how exactly the deal would play out. US partners are not so keen to back up those kinds of politics, having in mind that China is the top trading partner of all Asia countries and the EU. We can assume that China would not easily give up on most of it trade practices that have served her well in the past. The rising power will continue to challenge the super power even if we see a deal on the table. Both sides should be responsible because world trade suffers and opportunities are shrinking with the rise of protectionism.

Vladimir Milic

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

9

Should the EPP Strive to Maintain the Grand Coalition in the European Parliament?

For the last forty years the European Parliament has been dominated by a broad coalition of the Christian Democrats and Conservatives united in the European People’s Party, together with the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.

The two big European political families have thus far managed to maintain control over the major political processes in the EP in spite of the occasional turbulences in their alliance. Of course, crucial for the successful keeping of the balance was the fact that at any given time during this period the number of MEPs from the centre-right and from the centre-left have always guaranteed the EPP-S&D coalition a comfortable majority over the smaller parliamentary groups.

How much longer can this union survive, is it still viable, or are we facing an imminent shift in the political configuration of the 9th European Parliament? The answers to these questions will inevitably depend on the outcome of the European Parliament Election in the end of May 2019.

Traditionally, the voters with average political commitment tend to take less interest in the elections to the European parliament than they do when called upon to choose their representatives in the national or regional legislatures. Consequently, at

10

EU elections voter turnout is usually lower and furthermore, even those who do cast a ballot are less inclined to become acquainted with the candidates’ platforms. This is not uncommon since European politics can seem less relatable than national or local politics, especially to people of limited political culture. For that reason, during EP election campaigns national parties often cut down on the messages that address actual EU policies, and tend to rely on the domestic prestige of the candidates.

This year’s elections however might be an exception. Because of the turbulent processes throughout Europe, there is ground for real political debate about the future both of the European Union, and of the European continent. Naturally, at a time of difficulties the average citizen becomes less indifferent to politics, and the same logic can be applied to the current situation of the EU and the consequent more acute need for a debate about the direction the Union is taking. The elevated significance of the elections in the spring of 2019 has been highlighted by more than one European leader. It would hardly be an overstatement to say that the stakes are unusually high.

The voting intention opinion polls for the upcoming election show that, in spite of the fact that the EPP will

definitely remain the largest block in the EP, the two main political players are likely to lose the majority they have long been holding in the European parliament. For the first time in several decades the prognosis suggest that the MEPs of the centre-right and of the centre-left combined will amount to less than fifty percent of the seats in the European parliament.

Of course this is not at all an isolated phenomenon – it is the natural consequence of a disturbing trend of increasing support for the anti-system parties at the expense of decreased support for the traditional mainstream parties that tend not to stray too far from the centre of the left-right political spectrum. Another manifestation of this rather recent tendency is the rise of all sorts of populist movements (Euroscepticists, the so called “alt-right”, radical nationalists, far-leftists, extreme environmentalists, etc.) that we are witnessing in the past years. For instance, after Front National’s victory at the 2014 European Parliament elections in France (which may have been shocking to some but many would say that we should have seen it coming) the Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) is looking at a considerable boost of the number of MEPs in the next European Parliament. This is not exactly a surprising

BullsEye

turn of events – at times when they feel insecure and threatened people manifest a greater propensity for capsulation that creates the illusion of safety and protection. Hence, they turn to those who declare themselves anti-establishment and offer radical decisions. In the meantime, both the EPP and the S&D which are both pro-European parties and stick to a somewhat more moderate rhetoric, are under threat of sustaining some losses, which is likely to tilt the fragile balance of powers, currently supported by the ‘grand coalition’ between centre-right and centre-left.

While discussing the future configuration of the European Parliament, a factor that cannot and ought not to be ignored, is the third one of the original three Groups – the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe. In spite of losing their traditional position of a third-biggest formation in the 8th European Parliament to the European Conservatives and Reformists, the ALDE appear to be the only ones among the original three Groups that may not only not sustain further losses after the elections of May this year, but actually gain more seats in the next European Parliament than they currently hold, according to forecasts.

This has to be due partly to the expectations that Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche! (LREM) which currently has no official European affiliation, will join ALDE’s ranks in the EU parliament, come May. Considering the fact that the Juncker Commission was, after all, supported by the ‘super grand co-

alition’, it could be speculated that a new majority could be achieved with the participation of three instead of two major players.

It cannot go unacknowledged, that the uncertainty in which Brexit is veiled complicates the situation even further. Of course the EPP is not expected to gain much, should it be decided that the United Kingdom will after all elect MEP’s in May 2019, since the Conservative Party abandoned its affiliation with the EPP a decade ago. Nevertheless, the fact that there is still no clarity on the matter so near the date of the elections, contributes to the general uncertainty of the political conjuncture in Europe.

So what is the European People’s Party best course of action in the precarious situation that we are currently facing?

On the one hand, the European Union needs stability in its Institutions more than ever. Even from the position of a largest parliamentary group, by no means can the EPP provide for the absolute majority needed to approve spitzenkandidat Manfred Weber as President of the European Commission relying only on its own MEPs. Most likely some form of ‘grand’ or ‘grander’ coalition will be formed - if not permanently, then at least ad hoc for the sake of achieving absolute majority when needed for the crucial decisions concerning EU’s fate, so as not to let the populist forces take command over the vital processes in the Union.

On the other hand, the EPP could assert more strongly its right-wing profile . Hard as it may be to compete with the socialist rhetoric which has always sounded more appealing to the masses, we ought not to lose our identity. Grand coalition or not, the EPP should be clearly ideologically distinguishable from the S&D. It may be a bold statement but political blandness could be the EPP’s greatest sin before its adherents.

In times when the future of the Union might be in jeopardy, as more people driven by their fears respond to Eurosceptic ideologies, the primary consideration should be the consolidation of the pro-European forces in the EP. Even though it is little likely that the radicals are able to form a stable and big enough coalition to start calling the shots in the hemicycle, the traditional parties have an obligation to maintain the balance and stand as a counter-weight to the populist rhetoric that corrupts the Parliament and is detrimental to democracy. The next big division line in the European politics could be between those who would rather see Europe united and those who want us to degrade to separation and isolationism. For the sake of winning this biggest of battles the EPP will have to align with the others who support and promote unity. Doing so however, we should not forget who we are and what we stand for in the first place.

Desislava Kemalova

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

11

Europa Felix?

Italy is preparing itself for the European Challenge The European elections are approaching and in Italy the situation is hot. The front of the centre-right is united at the local level, and shattered at national level with the League as a leading figure to the government and Forza Italia to the opposition.

After months of struggles (still in progress) within the government made up of the extravagant majority composed of the League and the 5 Stars Movement (Salvini and Di Maio) who had the discussed Turin-Lyon high-speed TAV train as main topic, the situation is not the best, at least for the 5 Stars Movement intent on making NO TAV a political manifesto to stop the haemorrhage of votes that apparently seem to come straight to the League.

Surveys aside, to try to understand the next European challenge, it is necessary to have in mind the scores of the recent regional elections, which saw the League return momentarily 'at home' in the traditional centre-right coalition together with Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the conservative Fratelli d'Italia led by Giorgia Meloni.

Both Abruzzo and Sardinia (for a more complete score we will have to wait until May, which will see two more local elections days) have seen the centre-right coalition win with 48% of the votes. An excellent result for the coalition, which kindly brought down the Democratic Party and its civic lists (centre-left), which in both cases stopped below 35%.

But let's analyse the truly astounding result, which powerfully marked the internal relations to the yellow-green majority: it is that of the 5 Stars Movement, which in Sardinia has collapsed from 43% of the 2018 political elections

(only a year ago) to a poor 11%, with the prompt justification of Luigi Di Maio: "at the local level we always take a few votes".

tions will be Europe and the different conceptions for its governance, we will have an Italian cake cut into many, many slices.

The question that hovers in the rooms of Italian buttons is clear: what will happen to the government if the 5 Stars will officially collapse during the Europeans elections? Salvini is now the most powerful political figure within the Government. He is expecting the greater electoral boom of all-time; could he be interested in pulling the plug and pushing President Mattarella to dissolve the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies? Would Salvini be interested in presenting himself again in the elections with the traditional centre-right coalition?

Forza Italia, Fratelli d'Italia, and the League could have a more parliamentary and intergovernmental vision in common, while the left could fight for a more federalist one. But the question of their affiliation still remains: if in Italy the three parties can be seen as three different visions attributable to the same political position, in Europe they belong to three different groups: Forza Italia is now the only party above 10% of the Italian delegation to the EPP. The league will certainly be the most influential group in the future ENF, while Fratelli d'Italia still sits with the British Conservatives in the ECR group. These differences exclude a priori a hypothetical united front against the left and the 5 Stars.

We do not know. But we know that relations between the League Leader and Berlusconi are now sporadic and confused.

Most of the parliamentarians of the Forza Italia group strongly maintain, openly, a negative opinion on this government.

Meanwhile, the centre-left wing Democratic Party has elected its new leader at their congress: Nicola Zingaretti (brother of the actor who for years has been the protagonist of the successful series "The commissioner Montalbano" taken from the books of Andrea Camilleri) that seems to want to score a new path for the Italian left, going beyond the Renzi liberal period and moving further to the left, albeit always in the wake of social democratic Europeanism

For the moment we have no way of knowing on what topics the electoral campaign will be carried out. What is certain is that the "transversal" populism of the 5 Stars Movement in Italy is already going out of fashion. An important sign, which certainly will be taken into consideration by the parties in the coming days, is the Eurobarometer survey on the appreciation of Europe and Euro, which sees 65% of Italians in favour of the European project, with a veto: more attention and solidarity with regard to the very serious migration issue.

Anyways, in a “question mark period�, one thing is certain: if the protagonist of these elec-

Time will tell. Meanwhile, enjoy the campaign, Bullseye friends!

Franscesco Sismondini

12

BullsEye

Finland’s super spring of elections Finland is currently in the middle of a so-called “super spring of elections” as the European Parliament elections are taking place only a month after parliamentary elections in Finland. People that are enthusiastic about politics are about to have the time of their lives, but it can be tiring for an ordinary citizen.

Parliamentary elections have traditionally been more interesting to media and public attention, which is also reflected on the polling percentage. There is a huge gap in the polling percentage between national and European parliament elections in Finland, where 70% of the people vote in national elections but only 30% vote in European Parliament elections. The proximity of the two elections might affect the polling percentage in the European Parliament elections as the campaigning and media attention focused only on European Parliament elections is reduced to a couple of weeks.

Parliamentary elections provided a historical result as none of the parties gained over 20% of the votes. The top three parties were all within 0.7 percent: Social Democrats (S&D) 17.7%, the Finns Party (ECR) 17.5% and the National Coalition Party (EPP) 17.0%.

This spring we will have the election for European parliament simultaneously with negotiations about the new national government and its programme for the next four years.

It is expected that the negotiations will be challenging for each of the party leaders, thus making it more challenging for them to take part in the ongoing campaigns for the European parliamentary elections.

It is also probable that the negotiations will steal the spotlight when it comes to media attention.

We must also take into consideration Finland's third EU Presidency period, which begins on 01 July 2019. We might or might not have a new national government by then, and in any case, most of the ministers will be new to their positions. They will face the struggle of having to adapt to their new positions in national level but also be the leader to their ministry in the European level.

Another challenge concerning this “super spring” is the polling percentage of the young population.

Only 10% of the Finnish youth voted in the last European parliamentary elections. However, we might be facing a change for this worrisome situation. A research

conducted in Finland shows that the youth are expressing increasingly strong interest in politics for the first time in ages. This is most probably because the youth have seen what consequences has their lack of interest in voting had; two examples of this are Trump’s election and Brexit. In addition, over 70% of the Finnish youth state to be worried about the climate change. We have witnessed a school strike inspired by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg in Finland and hope that this political movement will encourage young people to vote.

Now at the time of writing, it is still unclear what will happen with Brexit. However, if Great Britain leaves the EU as planned and will not end up participating in the European Elections, Finland will get an additional MEP. The National Coalition Party has been throughout the history the biggest party in European parliamentary elections in Finland. This leaves us with hopes of gaining an extra representative. We really hope it would be a younger MEP this time!

Janika Takatalo

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

13

Key year, key elections – An outline of the political situation in Poland The European Parliament elections will take place on 26 May – they will constitute a general rehearsal before the parliamentary campaign and autumn elections to the Sejm, which will decide on the change or continuation at the level of legislative and executive power. Poles will also determine whether the political reforms introduced by PiS, a farright party in power since 2015, will be deepened or reversed. The future of the political scene is at stake in the elections too.

Today, all parties in Poland are primarily divided into those that want non-liberal democracy and those that care about the division of power, free courts and independent and strong local governments. On the right flank, PiS together with satellite nationalist parties undermines the state of civil society, media, judiciary and the position of Poland in the EU. On the other side, the European Coalition (KE), an initiative led by PO, represents liberal and moderate voters, who disagree with the government’s actions. KE gathers nearly the entire opposition, but the only exception is Wiosna, new progressive and pro-EU party launched by Robert Biedron, Poland's first openly gay politician.

Although there were already several similar projects, and none of them survived, Wiosna seems capable of challenging the status quo that has dominated the Polish political scene for the past 14 years.

This political arrangement will probably remain part of the country's political scene until the parliamentary election. The parties would find it difficult to change

the configuration because there is only a fivemonth gap before the next election, and two of those months are summer holidays.

Nevertheless, the most important question in 2019 is whether PiS is going to win again.

Opinion polls are moderately advantageous – the ruling party still leads in polls, but the likelihood of it winning an independent majority is diminishing. In mid-March, Kantar Millward Brown showed that KE was backed by 35 per cent of respondents and PiS by 33 per cent. Wiosna was the third with 11 per cent. Compared to the last year’s studies, the ruling camp is losing support among young voters and in big cities. In cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, support for it has dropped from 27 to 16 per cent, and from 23 to 13 per cent among voters aged 18-34.

It seems that the emergence of the European Coalition and Wiosna is going to change the balance of power on the Polish political scene. A union of opposition parties run a chance of defeating PiS in the European election, and the victory in May might pave the way for taking power in autumn. On the other hand, cooperation between the parties poses a number of risks – the coalition agenda may lack coherence (which may discourage some voters and party members) and make internal conflicts unavoidable. If that scenario is to happen, Wiosna would be a likely coalition partner for KE. Nonetheless, if Poland is to come back on a pro-EU course, KE must win the standoff with the ruling camp. This depends on the common maturity of the parties shaping KE,

delivering generational change in its own ranks as well as an increased mobilisation of Poles to vote. Firstly, it will prevent its supporters from shifting their loyalties to Wiosna and secondly limit the share of committed rightwing voters in the final ballot paper.

The turnout will be the key to political analysis in 2019, both during the European elections and the parliamentary campaign.

High levels of polling, especially in cities, will favour KE and Wiosna but may hurt PiS. Anomalies in turnout can also significantly change party preferences in the European elections. Usually, 25 per cent of Poles vote in European elections: experts now expect turnout as high as 40 per cent.

In this respect, PiS will likely go to ideological war to consolidate its electoral base and discourage opponents. Jarosław Kaczynski, PiS chairman, has already argued that if the opposition wins the election, the Polish family and children would be under threat.

To sum up, Poland is entering a period of political instability. This may be strengthened by the long overdue, post-transition recession and other disturbances, including possible outbreaks of violence (such as the murder of Paweł Adamowicz, a liberal mayor of Gdansk). Regardless of who wins the May and autumn election, it is no longer possible to return to the way in which politics was conducted before 2015. It is also unclear about Donald Tusk’s role in both campaigns – the European Council president is set to announce a new civil movement after the European election, which is set to remove PiS from power.

Tomasz Kaniecki

14

BullsEye

European Way of Croatia; youngest member of the Union Croatia has gone through a long and detailed negotiation on its European path and has shown the way for the countries of South Eastern Europe. Although it is the youngest member of the European Union, Croatia is by no means lagging behind on European policies and willingness to face them. It is with a wish to be a model for the countries that are in the process of pre-accession negotiations and who are negotiating on the future membership in the Union. The process of Europeanization is particularly important for the Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are a Bosnian constituent people and a special interest of Croatia. The Homeland War in Croatia, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other conflicts in South East Europe are a constant warning and reminder. Only economic progress, reconciliation and integration in society will help to develop, and ultimately by joining as new members of the Union.

One of the main goals of Croatia as an EU member is to enter the Schengen agreement.

Its long landline and indented coast represent a challenge for security and border control.

The readiness of the ministry and government is expressed as a key and strategic decision to implement the European Border Protection Protocols. Croatia wants to guarantee the security of the EU and all its citizens.

From January 2020, Croatia will chair the Council of the European Union. The desire to emphasize Croatia's diversity; its Central European affiliation, Mediterranean orientation and the influence of the East. Readiness to solve Brexit questions and other important issues for the political functioning of the Union. Facing the consequences of the migration crisis and new migration routes affecting the Union, economic development, inequality and rising populism in Europe.

These are just some of Croatia's goals for a better European Union, for a better quality of life, for economic prosperity and for joint progress.

Bridge of independent lists (MOST), a party that wants to be positioned as a sovereign, can poll for at least 1 mandate.

Croatia, on 26 May, is expecting the third European elections in the last 6 years since it became a member of the European Union in 2013. For the Croatian MEPs this will be the second full mandate in the European Parliament.

These elections to the HDZ ruling party are a kind of test before the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and will try to achieve the most favourable outcome of this time with the party list. The polls that support them and the announcements of very strong candidates on the list are a good indicator of that. The current 4 mandates in the EU Parliament are likely to increase after these elections, which will certainly be treated as a great success.

Knowing the importance of the EU election, the Croatian government, political parties and the European Parliament's office have been involved in motivating citizens to make the elections in May. The elections for the European Parliament are characterized by lower outflows, especially young people, so the campaign "this time vote" seeks to attract voters to go to the polls.

The average election turnout for the European Parliament in the European Union is about 42%, while Croatia's 25% outflow in the 2014 elections is extremely low. By approaching EU policies affecting citizens, organizing various events on European elections, such as forums, roundtables and conferences, trying to increase the outflow of elections.

The election campaign is booming, coalitions are made and lists are present. A total of 11 or 12 MPs from Croatia, depending on Brexit, will be elected to the European Parliament.

The traditional choice between the right (HDZ – Croatian Democratic Union) and left option (SDP – Social Democratic Party of Croatia) is no longer the case. Strengthening populist and right-Eurosceptic options did not even circumvent Croatia. Most of these lists are, however, the first time in these choices that represent an outdated test for them. However, they can still expect 3-4 mandates in the European Parliament. Among them is a populist and Eurosceptic Human shield (Živi zid).

The SDP will race for the European Parliament with experienced representatives and a promising list. Although in the crisis of leadership, which has not gone by even the socialists in Europe, the crisis of identity and weak support in the polls can still wait for 2 to 3 terms.

Of the remaining lists, it should be noted the right option for Independent Croatia and the Liberal - Progressive Coalition of Amsterdam, which are in a one - mandate race for the European Parliament.

We are expecting changes in the Parliament itself after the elections but most likely they will not be dramatic. The strengthened relationship between individual groups will be changed and new options and gatherings are possible. The traditional list of EPP and socialists will be weakened, though it is expected that the EPP will remain the largest group in the Parliament.

With believing in a better future for Europe, a strong and united Europe our duty is to go to the polls, vote and support this European path.

Ciprijan Crljenko

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

15

The Curious Case of European Elections in Bulgaria Bulgaria, as a relatively new member state, has held European elections merely three times in 2007 – when Bulgaria joined the EU, in 2009, and in 2014. Bulgaria currently holds 17 seats in the European Parliament. In the elections in 2014, 42.54 % of the electorate voted, a number corresponding to the average 43.09 % of voter turnout for the whole EU. The election results gave Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB, EPP Member) six seats; Reformist block (coalition of centre-right parties, EPP members) one seat; Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP, PES Member) four seats; Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS, ALDE Member) four seats; and Bulgaria Uncensored (a populist coalition, ECR member) two seats.

Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic, where the last national elections were held in 2017.

The Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has held the post three times and since 2017, he is in a governing coalition with the populist United Patriots (UP) formation, which at the time was necessary to secure the formation of government. The President Rumen Radev, chosen in 2017 as the President elect from the BSP, has been in an open opposition of the Prime Minister ever since the formation of his third government. Unlike in other member states, populism in Bulgaria has not been able to wield a lot of power yet. Despite being part of the governing coalition, the UP has been widely supportive of the policies of the main governing pro-European party – GERB. However, proposed legislation has often been vetoed by the President.

The most recent and substantial disagreement between GERB and BSP was related to proposed amendments to the Electoral Code, which would have raised the threshold for preferential voting to what is thought to be an impossible lev-

el to attain, gradually increased the use of machine voting as opposed to paper ballots, and introduced changes to the way the election commission works. The preferential vote amendment, proposed by DPS, essentially took away the democratic right of citizens to move the candidates higher on the list by voting for them. Curiously, the amendment was supported by GERB and fiercely opposed by BSP and one party from the UP. The President exercised his right to veto the legislation and returned it back to the Parliament.

The current disagreements within political parties and the discontent among the citizens will turn the European elections into a test for the current support for the government.

There is a large possibility that Bulgaria will end up having three elections – local, European and national. The local elections are scheduled in October. The European elections will be held on 26 May – conforming to the tradition of always holding elections on Sunday. The possibility of having national elections might rise after the expected underperformance of the parties of the governing coalition in the European elections.

There have been some discrepancies in the election prognosis published from different Bulgarian sociological agencies, but the general agreement is that the Turkish ethnic party DPS is most likely to lose half of its four MEPs. The socialist BSP party will increase its representation in the European Parliament from four MEPs to either six or seven. This is reflecting the general support the citizens inflict upon President Radev and his opposition of the Borissov Cabinet. The populist coalition of parties is thought to either keep the same number of MEPs, currently two, to lose one.

The latest developments surrounding the centre-right politics are more refreshing. At the time of writing, there have been no of-

ficial voting lists published yet. Currently, for GERB it is unclear how many of the former MEPs will be included in the new list. Following a letter from the President of the EPP Joseph Daul, who appealed to Bulgarian centre-right parties to unite for the European elections in order to secure more seats for the EPP, GERB and Union of Democratic Forces agreed to be in a coalition. In return for the support, GERB would give two seats to the Union. The party Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria refused to be in a coalition with GERB stating that the governing party works against the inherent values of the EPP. While at first sight, the centre-right parties seem to surprise with unusual unity, for BSP the situation is a lot more absurd. Interparty disagreements have led to the selection of Elena Ioncheva, a journalist and member of the Bulgarian parliament over Sergey Stanishev, S&D MEP, current President of the Party of the European Socialists, and Former Prime Minister of Bulgaria, as head of the election list for the Bulgarian socialists. The choice of a person seemingly unknown in Brussels over Mr. Stanishev who has been very active on the European scene simply shows how inner party politics in Bulgaria prevail over European interests.

Despite the fact that there have not been any campaigns yet, the European elections campaigns are expected to, as per usual, represent vague calls for citizens to engage in topics of national interest rather than European ones.

The quality of campaigning, if compared to other European member states, gives away the feeling that informing and engaging voters is unfortunately not the priority of the political parties. There is a real danger that misinformation about the EU can lead to a populist and nationalist party momentum, which will undoubtedly hurt the country and its European outlook.

Teodora Hristova

16

BullsEye

A clash of two oligarchs or a chance for new politics?

Five years have passed since the tragic events of Euromaidan. It seems that the lessons of bloodshed have long since been forgotten, and the Ukrainian political scene has again found itself on the abyss. We went to Kyiv on an electoral weekend to see with our own eyes whether the direction towards Europe was rooted between Ukrainians. There are still lots of breakthroughs likely to appear before runoff elections held on April 21.

DISAPPOINTED IN THE EXERCISE OF THEIR HOPES?

When Petro Poroshenko was already winning the first round with a huge majority in the 2014 elections, for the first time in Ukrainian history, he was faced with huge expectations. "My first decisive step will be aimed at ending the war, ending chaos, and bringing peace to a united and free Ukraine" Poroshenko said at the day of his election back in 2014 which went down in history as a proud day for Ukraine and sends a vivid signal that Ukraine’s people want stability, peace, and prosperity.

Ukrainians wanted and chose the "president of peace" who would solve the conflict in the East in a political and diplomatic manner. During his term, Poroshenko succeeded in signing the economic part of an association agreement with the European Union and the long-awaited Schengen visa-free travel has been established.

Despite of the crisis after the revolution, the Ukrainian economy has been recovering thanks to striving to carry out decisive, pro-European reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy. The decentralization of public administration, the most successful of the reforms, made local budget revenues grow more than twice and led to a change in the quality of life for Ukrainians. He stole the hearts of many patriots promoting the Ukrainian language and receiving the blessing for a Ukrainian Orthodox church perceived as a significant victory over Russia influence in Ukraine.

On the other hand, now, five years after, Ukrainian voters are still fed up with few stalled reforms, a slow economic recovery, rising utility costs and a grinding war with Russian-backed separatists in the country’s southeast. Society perceives the signing of the Minsk Protocol only as a partial surren-

der. Poroshenko is dogged by accusations of corruption and cronyism, in opposition to his promises from 2014 and being still widely recognized as a billionaire magnate. By announcing in the course of his 2019 presidential campaign, that Ukraine finally seeks possibilities to join NATO and, in the longer term, the EU, he finally managed to get a distant second place with as little as 16% of votes.

IS THIS PUBLIC PERSONA REAL OR FAKE?

Over 14% ahead of Poroshenko, over 30% of all votes in the first round went to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedy actor with no political experience. It was nothing more than the TV series, where his character is the Ukrainian president, that became the beginning of his political career. The last season of his show strongly refers to the current political situation, therefore it is difficult to believe in its accidental release just before the elections.

At the same time, his political agenda does not draw up any unequivocal conclusions. Zelenskiy gives few interviews and only campaigns through his television program. He suggests to seek peace in the Ukrainian war zone through talks with Russia, a sentiment that is broadly popular but may not be realistic.

It seems like it is only a need for fresh blood and wave of anger with Poroshenko's failures together with a pinch of social media that carried him to the victory.

In the country with very little trust in authorities, such an approach to voters does wonders. Zelenskiy is seen as the one having no links to Ukraine's corruption-ridden political elite. However, the fact is he has a very powerful man behind him - Ihor Kolomoisky, another Ukrainian oligarch, not only owning the media outlet which is behind the candidate’s career, but

Krysztof Kubon

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

mainly conflicted with Poroshenko. After the nationalisation of his former bank, the biggest commercial bank in Ukraine, he is now in exile with serious allegations, he has great opportunity to take revenge now. "We won’t give Kolomoisky a single chance” said Poroshenko, thus admitting the existence of a conflict. Only if Zelenskiy will stand up in the open debate and answer questions about the war, the economy, foreign policy and energy policy — and if he can answer them as himself, not his alter ego – then he might stand a chance.

UKRAINIANS LEFT WITH A DIFFICULT CHOICE?

Although the first round winner Zelenskiy got much higher support than Poroshenko, no one can be sure of who will win. Poroshenko is convincing Ukrainian speaking voters that voting for him would be a responsible choice. At the same time, expected high turnout will favor Zelenskiy, supported in the country’s Russian-speaking south-east, to win. None of other candidates is likely to support remaining counter-candidate in the second round, since such a declaration could harm their own support before parliamentary elections later this year. The next president of Ukraine will likely be determined by a battle between Poroshenko’s powerful political machine and Zelenskiy’s effort to get out his young base. They may choose oligarch Poroshenko with whom they do not have special ties of trust, but rely on his achievements and predictability, or they can pick Zelenskiy, a political product of another oligarch that only seems to be hard on the ground and at sight more similar to the average Ukrainian.

Hubert Tadych

17

The Unending conflict – Afghan Roadmap Throughout history, countries across the world always have several hard decisions to take. From economic strategy to foreign policy, a country has many decisions to take that can affect the lives of many citizens. One of the most drastic and controversial decision a country might decide on is the possibility of going to war.

War is never an easy decision that a country takes. This would affect the history of the country for many generations to come.

There have been many examples throughout history of wars that have extremely affected countries for many years even after the war has finished. One of the prime examples nowadays is the US war in Afghanistan. It has been the costliest and longest war in United States of America’s history. The nature of the conflict has changed over the past 18 years.

3 presidents over 5 terms have not been able to end this conflict.

18

This conflict should be studied from its origins and causes in order to be able to reach a resolution to this war.

Prior to the US invasion in 2001, Afghanistan had known a short period of calm in a tormented history. Indeed, on 24 December 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and installed a friendly government in power. The Soviet presence sparked a nationwide rebellion against them. This rebellion was headed by Islamist fighters. These Islamic fighters were backed and supported by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

This conflict gave birth to Al Qaeda. They started out as a logistical network to support Muslims fighting against the Soviet Union.

They supported the Afghan Islamic fighters from Sudan supplying them with arms. This planted the main seeds for the conflict

that ignited in 2001. Another important factor is the Taliban.

The Taliban are a group of Islamic fighters who seized power and implemented a severe interpretations of Islamic Law across Afghanistan in 1996. During the same year when they seized power, the Taliban welcomed Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden to Afghanistan after he was expelled from Sudan. Al Qaeda and Bin Laden set up their main headquarters in Afghanistan and started planning the next wave of attacks against the US. Prior to 9/11, Al Qaeda launched attacks on American targets in Kenya, Tanzania, and Yemen with relatively worthy success.

The spark that ignited the conflict was the 9/11 attacks. The hijacking and crashing of 4 U.S jetliners shocked a nation. The fall of the World Trade Centers in New York and the sight of fire coming

BullsEye

out from the Pentagon, a nation stood shocked. The 9/11 plot had been hatched by Al Qaeda. The 19 hijackers had been trained in Al Qaeda headquarters in Afghanistan. When they arrived in the US, the hijackers stayed in touch with contacts and handlers from Afghanistan. On 18 September, US President George W. Bush signed into law a joint resolution authorizing the use of force against those responsible for attacking the US. The US military began its military operation on 7 October 2001. Operation Enduring Freedom was launched by the US with full support from British, Canada, Germany, Australia, and France. Anti-Taliban Forces supported by US Special Forces conducted the main military action on the ground. By December 2001, the Taliban forces were on the retreat and defeat was imminent and Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda leadership were on the run. The UN Security council passed a resolution calling for the UN in establishing a transitional administration and invited member states to send peacekeeping forces to promote stability and aid delivery. In the beginning of 2002, an interim administration was put in place in order to start the democratic building process.

From 2003 till 2008, the US and its allies continued to pursue and hunt down the Taliban leaders and Osama Bin Laden. Furthermore, US and its allies started to build Afghan institutions. They started by writing the country’s constitution. By the final years of the Bush Presidency, the Taliban insurgency began to resurface. Violence increased across the country especially during the summer months. The number of suicide bombers more than doubled. By the end of the Bush presidency, the US conflict in Afghanistan turned from a classical

conflict into a full fledged counterinsurgency. This presented the incoming President with new set of challenges. Obama entered the White House with the ultimate goal of focusing and reducing the Taliban role in Afghanistan. However, the situation on the ground made his goal intangible. At first, Obama increased the troop level in Afghanistan to around 30,000.

The reinforcements came in to counter the Taliban insurgency.

This set a new US strategy in Afghanistan. From 2008 till 2010, the US and its allies continued to combat the Taliban insurgency in the main provinces were their presence were felt like the southern and eastern provinces. This was followed up with rebuilding process across the country. The US continued to train Afghan security forces. By 2010 the US set up a timetable in order to transfer the security responsibility to Afghan security forces. On 1 May 2011, A US Navy Seal team was able to kill Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. This operation raised many questions concerning Pakistan and their role in helping Osama Bin Laden. However, this operation gave Obama the power to reduce the number of US military presence in Afghanistan.

In 2012, the Taliban first tried to open peace talks in order to set up a political settlement in order to finally end the conflict in Afghanistan. However, these talks ended up raising tension between the two sides. By 2014, Obama announced a timetable for the full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. This came a year after the Afghan forces fully took over security responsibilities from US forces from the US security forces. By the end of the Obama presidency, the situation on the ground did not change.

When Donald Trump entered the White House, the Talib-

an had reemerged as a potential destabilizer in Afghanistan. He threatened to reverse Obama’s policy and keep the troops on the ground. By 2018, US and Taliban reopened negotiations in order to reach a political settlement in Afghanistan. Although, the Taliban reopened negotiation, this did not stop them from launching several bold terrorist attacks in Kabul and other areas in Afghanistan. By February 2019, Negotiations between the US and Taliban entered their highest level. The talks centered on the US withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban pledge to block international terrorist groups from operating on Afghan soil.

Today, this policy course raises many questions about the US vision for Afghanistan.

Many questioned the US policy because US has invested billions of dollars in rebuilding Afghanistan only then to turn over the country to the same group which were removed prior to its invasion.

Furthermore, the US has built Afghanistan into a nation that respects the role of women in society. Prior to US invasion, Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws and forbid the education of women. Additionally, many doubt the Taliban’s credibility in keeping its pledge. Nobody knows how this conflict will end and how will the violence stop.

The sudden US U turn from its original policy has raised concerned from US establishment and its allies about the proper course of action. Only time will tell if the Trump administration will handle and solve the situation in Afghanistan.

This is another test which will define the Tr u m p presidency.

Elie-Joe Dergham

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

19

United Nations 2030 Agenda, Sustainability and Shipping In September 2015, the UN 193 Member States unanimously adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – otherwise known as the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’, including 17 goals and 169 targets that demonstrate action towards critical areas for humanity and the planet. The SDGs outline the Organisation’s commitment to expand opportunities for all, by empowering women, including young people in a meaningful way, reducing climate risks, creating decent jobs and mobilising clean investments for inclusive growth. According to the UN Secretary General, the 2030 Agenda is crucial to rebuild the trust needed for fair globalisation.

Historically, the concept of sustainability was introduced by the Brundtland Report in 1987. According to the report, sustainable development is a ‘development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’ Interestingly, during the years, sustainability has been abused and defined a la carte by the international society. Because of this, commentators have compared this doctrine with ‘democracy’ and characterised it as ‘universally desired, diversely understood, extremely difficult to achieve, and won’t go away.’

This strategy called its member states and organisations such as the International Maritime Organisation (IMO); which is the UN specialised agency for the international shipping affairs to, work in favour of a transition to a ‘green economy’.

SHIPPING AND 2030 AGENDA

Since the industrialisation in the mid1800s, the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) which is one of the major greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, has been

20

rapidly increased because of the fossil fuel that industries have been using. One of the major pollutant protagonists is the transportation industry with its emissions calculated at up to 11 % of the global pollution, and specifically shipping shares calculated at 3 %. To appraise this amount from a different perspective, according to the World Bank, the annual emissions of the shipping industry are slightly higher than the annual emissions of Germany.

initiatives to develop a ‘Sustainable Maritime Transportation System’ to create a safer and more efficient transport while minimizing pollution, maximising energy efficiency and ensuring resource conservation.

By carrying 90 % of the global trade, shipping constitutes the most cost-effective and efficient transport industry - being the lowest overall emitter per tonne mile of any transport mode - however, it has to reduce its impact to the climate change.

Significantly, due to the strong demand in transport and especially in shipping, IMO has estimated that CO2 emissions from the industry will be increased between 50 and 250 % until 2050. Additionally, these predictions include the positive impact of the plethora of legal and efficiency measures that IMO has already established.

Hence, in April 2018 IMO introduced its new strategy on reduction of GHG emissions from vessels. By adopting the ‘Initial IMO Strategy on reduction of GHG emissions from ships’ the organisation confirmed its commitment to reduce the catastrophic emissions from its sector ‘as soon as possible in this century’. What IMO did, was to establish, for the first time in the history of shipping, an absolute number of emissions reduction. At the first stage, IMO’s plan is to minimise the pollution caused to the environment from the emissions up to 50 % until 2050 compared to 2008 with the ultimate goal to be the fully decarbonisation of the sector. The strategy is in reference to a pathway of CO2 emissions reduction consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals and the 2030 Agenda.

Under the 2030 Agenda mandate, IMO took

This is to say, the pressure from the EU and

BullsEye

other allies played a vital role in the ratification of the Strategy, as they actually threatened IMO that they will proceed with regional policies. Something that would firstly jeopardise the supremacy of IMO and secondly, without any clear and globally accepted framework, powerful flag and port states could have the chance to make up their own rules. Such a scenario would be catastrophic for the global shipping trade and the consequences would be unpredictable.

It is important to note that in the past, the EU was forced to establish its own regional strategies, because of the absence of any consensus within the IMO in regard to the shipping within the Union’s waters. Although, the rules were in line with international climate regime and the EU had the authority to act, it should be avoided in the future because the GHG emissions are an international issue. Therefore, the monadic way to achieve this is through bona fide discussions of all the contracting parties.

The – Paris Agreement for Shipping - was accepted with euphoric comments from the shipping industry, specifically the Secretary General of International Camper for Shipping spoke about ‘a ground-breaking agreement.’ Several Shipping Cham-

pers across the world welcomed the outcome of IMO. Initial strategy was also warmly welcomed from the majority of the environmental society, with NGOs expressing their satisfaction. Nonetheless, they reaffirm that the ultimate goal should be the fully decarbonisation of the sector in a short term.

Greenpeace has expressed itself with negative rhetoric regarding the new strategy, arguing that the ambition should be full decarbonisation of the sector until 2050.

However, the ‘IMO plan is a first step in the right direction.’

CONCLUSION

It is apparent that Initial Strategy came into force in a crucial chronological period for the future of this planet. Just to mention that the average person living in Europe loses two years of their life to the health effects of breathing polluted air, according to a report published in the European Heart Journal on 12 March.

Despite the fact that some parties argued for more radical ambitions the Strategy which is called the ‘Paris Agreement’ for international shipping is a milestone. This

is to say, IMO with a pragmatism policy and in an effort to mitigate the different approaches introduced a strategy with a lot of pathogenesis. Thus, in order to be effective, nations that are parties to the Agreement, need to honour their commitment within the time schedule agreed in the IMO Road Map. Notwithstanding the importance of the Strategy no one should grant it as the panacea to the vast anthropogenic emissions problem. As stated above, without the collaboration of every member nation, any achievement of the ‘Initial Strategy’ targets will constitute a utopia.

By introducing the Strategy, IMO just opened the Pandora box of shipping and it will need a lot of effort from all the contracting parties to deal with it. It is remarkable that for the first time in history such a global industry introduced a strategy to reduce its emissions despite its disadvantages. Bearing in mind the pure and strong intention from most of the parties to work in favor of the industry’s GHG emissions reduction and therefore for the environment, it seems that shipping industry will honor its reputation for a more sustainable future.

Iacovos Iacovou

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

21

Revenge Porn: A Reportage on a Very European problem The increasing reach of the internet, the rapid spread of mobile information, and the widespread use of social media, coupled with the existing pandemic of violence against women and girls, has led to the emergence of a cyber practice known as ‘revenge porn’.

Sexually graphic photographs or videos distributed online without the consent of the individual in the images, are impacting the lives of thousands of women across Europe while non-consensual pornography evolves into a growing global problem with potentially significant economic and societal consequences.

In 2016, 31-year-old Italian national Tiziana Cantone chose to end her life because she could not bear the humiliation and public ridicule once her sex tape went viral after being released on social media by friends. She had even been forced to change her home and her last name.

Also in 2016, Lina Koemtzi chose to end her life by jumping out of the 9th floor of a student dormitory in the city of Thessaloniki. She had received threats that her personal videos and photos would be published on social media.

In March 2017, after years

22

of investigations, the Dutch police shut down Anon-IB, the internet’s most notorious epicentre of ‘revenge porn’, which thrived as users posted nude photos and videos of women without their consent.

Investigators found out that the messaging platform had hundreds of thousands of users mostly from the east coast of the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and France.

All these episodes – to list a few among many - are related to one phenomenon. A phenomenon on the rampage in many European countries: ‘Revenge Porn’.

WHAT IS REVENGE PORN?

The use of the term ‘Revenge Porn’ is debated, as this term could risk darkening the links between all forms of sexual abuse based on the image.

In this sense, using a more encompassing term such as ‘non-consensual pornography’ might help defining the problem we are dealing with better.

However, according to Silvia Semenzin, PhD student in Digital Sociology from the State University of Milan and leader of a campaign Italian campaign "#intimitàViolata" which led to the recent approval of a law against 'revenge porn' in Italy: “The term ‘re-

BullsEye

»However, ›revenge porn‹ represents only one side of a multifaceted issue.« venge porn’ arises from the will of vengeance underlying the act of sharing not consensual of intimate material.” And “It is a term that has a strong media impact and therefore helps in creating awareness around it and in better fighting this phenomenon”.

According to the European Institute for Gender Equality, non-consensual pornography, also known as cyber exploitation or ‘revenge porn’, involves the online distribution of sexually graphic photographs or videos without the consent of the individual in the images.

The perpetrator is often an ex-partner who obtains images or videos in the course of a prior relationship and aims to publicly shame and humiliate the victim, in retaliation for ending a relationship. However, perpetrators are not necessarily partners or ex-partners and the motive is not always revenge. Images can also be obtained by hacking into the victim’s computer, social media accounts or phone, and can aim to inflict real damage on the target’s ‘real-world’ life (such as getting them fired from their job).

Data from the United Nations and from the European Institute for Gender Equality indicate that ‘revenge porn’ affects mostly young women: up to 90% of victims are female and the number of cases is increasing. There have been

multiple publicised cases of female victims of non-consensual pornography in the EU Member States and the US over recent years, several of whom committed suicide as a result (such as the cases above mentioned). There are also a growing number of websites dedicated to sharing revenge porn, where users can submit images alongside personal information such as the victim’s address, employer and links to online profiles.

However, ‘revenge porn’ represents only one side of a multifaceted issue. The increasing reach of the internet, the rapid spread of mobile information, and the widespread use of social media, coupled with the existing pandemic of violence against women and girls (VAWG), has led to the emergence of cyber VAWG as a growing global problem with potentially significant economic and societal consequences.

HOW SERIOUS IS THE PROBLEM?

Research on online VAWG – and especially on ‘revenge porn’- is yet in its infancy but the data available are already appalling.

•

According to the 2015 UN report “Cyber Violence Against Women and Girls: A World- Wide Wake-Up Call”, in Europe, 9 million girls have experienced some kind of cyber violence by the time

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

they are 15 years old, while across continents, women are 27 times more likely to be harassed online; •

According to the recent UNWomen report “Urgent action needed to combat online violence against women and girls”, 73% of women had reported experiencing online abuse, with 18% – around 9 million women – experiencing serious internet violence;

•

While the 2017 EIGE report “Cyber violence against women and girls”, said that 70% of women victims of cyberstalking also experienced at least one for m of physical or/and sexual violence from an intimate partner and that 1 in 5 teenagers in Europe experience cyberbullying and among them, girls are at higher risk (23.9% vs. 18.5%);

As shown by these evidences, despite the prevalent belief in the liberating and empowering potential of a new, democratic digital sphere, on the internet and via the use of new technologies, women and girls experience violence in many ways.

Online channels and spaces are new or more opaque ways to perpetrate other forms of violence against women and girls. Digital spaces are also used to lure women and girls

23

into prostitution and pornography, or can contribute to further intimate partner violence.

Online abuse can be categorised along two axes: verbal online abuse which includes sexist hate speech reinforced by intersecting identities/ vulnerabilities, sextortion and death, rape and torture threats, and graphics online abuse, including creepshots, graphic threats and ‘revenge porn’. Digital spaces and the new technologies where these forms of pervasive violence happen include emails, text messages, social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Periscope (used by 90% of young people on a daily basis), search engines such as Google or Yahoo and their multiple functionalities, blogs, Reddit threads, dating websites and applications, communication apps like WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, Snapchat or Skype, online media and their comments sections, forums, online videogames and their chatrooms, virtual reality spaces, etcetera. “’Revenge Porn’ is particularly big on Telegram,” says Valerio Mazzoni, an expert in online extremism activities who monitored ‘revenge porn’ - related activities on Telegram messaging app. Interviewed by BullsEye Valerio reported that “Telegram is the ideal place for sharing non-consensual pornographic contents as the app guarantees the complete anonym-

24

ity of users and its structured in chats and channels which are accessible only under invitation and where sharing contents is easy”.

According to Silvia Semenzin who - together with Mr Mazzoni - has conducted a long research on the links between ‘revenge porn and Telegram, on the messaging app it is possible to find four different categories of contents: “Within the first type, in chat and channels which can involve up to 24,000 people, we pass from generic porn content sharing to the sharing - in the form of revenge - of ex-girlfriends' photos and videos. When a particular user shares sensitive contents of an ex-girlfriend, he often includes her contact details and social media profiles, asking other users to harass her”. "Then there are more specific channels - continued Silvia - dedicated only to filming done in spy mode, i.e. with girls shot without them knowing it, with hidden cameras and microphones. Then there are channels dedicated to photos taken by social media, which mostly involve pornographic video and photos of minors. And finally, channels and chat where just one particular girl is targeted. In this case, all her photos and data are shared in the chat or channel, inciting the other members against the victim”.

“Telegram chats and channels where we monitored ‘porn revenge’ activities exist in French, Italian,

English, Ger man and Spanish and involve thousands of men across Europe,” says Mazzoni, underlining how security authorities are struggling in containing a phenomenon that appears to be on the rise.

A EUROPEAN SOLUTION TO A GLOBAL ISSUE?

Several Member States have recently adopted legislation targeting forms of cyber VAWG; for example, provisions criminalising revenge porn have been enacted in the U.K., France, Germany, Malta and recently in Italy, with policies currently pending in Ireland and Slovenia.

While this is a step in the right direction, studies suggest that current legal and policy approaches in the EU fail to adequately capture the social and psychological harm resulting from the use of sexual imagery to harass, coerce or blackmail women. Furthermore, research reveals that the response of the criminal justice sector to women victims of cyber VAWG is inadequate. For example, of the 1160 incidents of revenge porn reported during the first six months after its criminalisation in the U.K., 61 % resulted in no further action pursued against the alleged perpetrator. In fact, all evidence suggests that a European approach could work better in addressing this problem.

In Europe, cyber violence and hate speech online against women is partly addressed

BullsEye

through the Council of Europe’s Conventions of Budapest, Istanbul and Lanzarote.

Increased synergies between these instruments on the topic of online violence against women are necessary. Although there is no specific instrument focusing on cyber violence and hate speech online against women at EU level, the recently adopted General Data Protection Regulation and the Electronic-Commerce Directive, as well as Directives on Victim’s Rights, Trafficking and on Sexual Exploitation of Children can cover some of these forms of violence. At EU level, several policies, strategies and actions also focus on the phenomenon. The European Parliament through several different resolutions has already called for the recognition of cyber violence and hate speech online against women in the European Union.

Howev-

er, a specific EU legislation on the matter is still missing and more could be done in Brussels on this regard. First of all, due to the current lack of research and data at EU level, it is difficult to adequately quantify the prevalence or impact of cyber VAWG and specifically of ‘revenge porn’ in the EU. In order to better determine the prevalence and risk factors of, and effective policy responses to, cyber VAWG, a priority for European institutions should be the development of measurement and quantification tools of these types of acts.

The EU should also aim towards agreeing on definitions of forms of cyber VAWG and incorporate these forms of violence into EU legislation, to ensure that victims of cyber VAWG in the Member States have access to justice and specialised support services but also to push on Member states to adopt laws which can effectively tackle the problem.

Mattia Caniglia

Finally, there is a need for awareness-raising campaigns educating man, women and girls about cyber VAWG, ’revenge porn’, their legal rights and available support services.

Prevention measures should be developed that include the ICT sector, including the adoption of self-regulatory standards to avoid harmful gender stereotyping and the spreading of degrading images of women, or imagery that associates sex with violence.

In a historical moment when the capability of the European Institutions to deliver on the interests of its citizens is put into question, a serious EU action against cyber VAWG in general and ’revenge porn’ in particular could represent a good example of what Europe can do and of what its role could be in protecting and empowering its most important citiz e n s : women.

Valentina Podestà

Special thanks to Silvia Semenzin and Valerio Mazzoni for their contribution to this article: Silvia Semenzin is a PhD student in Digital Sociology at the University of Milan and a digital activist. She launched the Italian campaign #intimitàViolata which led to the approval of a law against revenge porn in Italy in April 2019.

Valerio Mazzoni is an expert in security and techniques of antiterrorism and in recent years has specialized in mapping, categorizing and monitoring Telegram channels close to the jihadi world.

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

25

WhatshouldtheCentre-Rightstandfor intermsofMigrationandAsylumpolicy?

Since the number of asylum seekers reached the peak of 1,321,600 people in 2015 within the European Union, the quantity of applications for asylum were declining for three years now. But still many refugees are trying to enter the EU each year. How should the EPP family deal with this issue particularly in view of the European elections this year?

Rising right-wing populist streams within the EU, the Yellow Jackets movement in France, the Brexit and increasing tensions related to the international relations with Russia, China and the US are just a few subjects the European Union is currently facing. Different political and cultural backgrounds in the eastern and western part of the union and economic differences from the North to the South make it difficult to find common ground for a consistent Migration and Asylum policy. But what should the centre-right stand for?

stop the cruel business of smugglers and touts across the sea.

First of all, it is important to guarantee the protection of the external border and to strengthen FRONTEX for their difficult mission in the Mediterranean Sea and the (south)eastern border of Europe. If the free movement of goods and the freedom of travel without border controls has to be maintained, the EU should find ways to safeguard the execution of the Schengen treaty by securing the external border.

As Manfred Weber, Sebastian Kurz and leading figures of the EPP are stressing, it is important to find a good mix between humanity and order. It is our responsibility as Christian-Democrats to help those who are in need and those who are getting oppressed for religious, political, ethnic and are enduring various forms of discrimination, and even our duty to give shelter from war, violent conflicts and inhuman crimes. But unfortunately not all the refugees, entering the EU are coming due to these reasons.

Many alleged asylum seekers are coming in the hope for a better economic situation or the outlook for social security benefits but actually do not fulfil the demands for asylum. In this case, it is important to accelerate asylum proceedings and to guarantee faster deportations into the countries of origin. It is important to concentrate on the real victims and to reduce economic refugees.

Furthermore, the centre-right should deal with the causes of flight in the countries of origin to reduce the flows of refugees.

If the economic and political conditions in the home countries will be improved and violent conflicts will be reduced, less people are going to start the dangerous escape towards Europe.

Our aim is to

In addition, the centre-right family needs to start a dialogue on how the already arrived asylum seekers and refugees that are still coming, can be distributed among all the 27 EU member states. At the moment, a few countries have the main burden while other member states do not admit any new refugees or asylum seekers.

There needs to be a fair and equal distribution regarding specific factors like population, the GDP and the area of a country.

But on the other hand, if we are talking about migration in general, we should also discuss the lack of qualified personnel. Many European countries are suffering from their demographic development and the fact that there are not enough workers who are paying into the social security funds, while people are getting older and older and the birth rate is declining, this originates big gaps in the job market. From there in many sectors, companies are trying to find qualified staff, as many young people from their own country are going to study and not learning a profession anymore. On that account a controlled migration into the labour market is essential for the economic development in the EU to ensure its wealth and stabilisation. But this kind of immigration cannot be mixed with asylum or refugee policies. It needs to be steered with working visas and an initiative for better laws concerning a targeted immigration of qualified professionals.

To conclude, it is important for the centre-right to offer the European people good solutions for these complex issues to make sure, that right-wing movements cannot convince with populist proposals.

The reality is too multilayered for simple and unilateral suggestions. We always have to keep in mind, that we are talking about people and not objects.

Johannes BĂźrgin

26

BullsEye

Endgame – What lies behind the slowdown of the world growth?

On 6 March, the OECD presented its “March Intermediate Economic Outlook”, amending the economic forecasts issued roughly four months before, on November 2018. The results of the adjustment are indeed worrying: all forecasts for G-20 economies have been reconsidered downwards, particularly in Europe, where high political uncertainty around Brexit, and EU’s interconnection with a developing Asia, profoundly affected by China’s slowdown, have had a bigger impact than expected. The only good news are to be found across the pond, where the United States and Canada are the only two economies whose GDP growth rate has been revised upwards to a 2.2% and 2%, respectively by 2020.

Global GDP projected growth rate is 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, the lowest rate since 2009. While financial and labor markets remain resilient due to the slow growth of wages and the easier financial conditions supported by exceptional monetary policies applied by the main central banks; we might be experiencing the last years of the expansive economic cycle we have enjoyed so far. The ones to blame are on the one hand, the political uncertainty around the trade war between the US and China, and on the other, debt

repayments that emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) will have to face in the following three years, thus increasing the downside risks in the international arena. Additionally, EMDEs also face country-specific challenges – see the hyperinflation in Argentina or the devaluation of the Turkish Lira – that may weaken their economies even more, risking all the growth gathered during the last expansive circle.

At a more regional level, China and EU’s economic performance are the main issues to look at. China’s economic growth - 6.6% in 2018, coming from a 14.2% in 2007 - is the weakest since the credit crunch. Although its economic downturn is projected to be gradual during the next years - partly due to strong public investment policies -, its slowdown will have an impact across the world, mainly in Eastern Asian markets, and Japan. As a result of China’s cooling, investment risk premium in all economies is expected to increase up to 50 basis points. The main cause behind China’s slowdown is to be found in the reduction of its exports, due to the threat of new tariffs within the USA-China trade war and a lack of a domestic demand able to cope – yet – with such a reduction in the foreign in-flow incomes.

The European picture is not very reassuring. Member states’ dependence on intra-EU trade - far greater than that with the rest of the world – has caused that domestic tensions and political instability within certain EU states have affected economic performance of others in a sort of epidemic effect. Consequently, the slowdown in the United Kingdom, – for the uncertainties around Brexit –, Germany – reduction in its exports – and Italy – stagnant economy coupled with political disarray – are raising serious concerns among financial circles because their performance is hampering credit growth, what could weaken the Euro area even further.

The current economic situation calls for joint and large-scale efforts to prevent an economic recession like the one experienced in 2009. Current interconnection in nowadays economies demands for multilateral solutions. Strengthening trade ties, increasing cooperation among countries and fostering the transfer of knowledge between developed and undeveloped economies are the only way to go if we want a stable and durable global economic growth.

Aura Tortosa

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

27

Mental health matters?! – Reality check at European universities The relevance of mental health issues has become more and more important over the last years. There are several reasons for this positive development. However, there is still a long way to go and even today the number of students who are struggling with mental diseases remain at a high level. According to a recent WHO-study, 20.3 % of students suffer from mental diseases. The results also match closely with those from a study published by a German health insurance in 2018. It says that about 17 % of the students are suffering from mental disorders. These numbers are shocking as well as they are pointing directly at a serious issue that needs to be taken care of.

Normally, students belong - due to their young age and high fitness level - to a group of relatively healthy people. However, studies again and again show, that students are mostly physically healthy, while being psychologically quite unhealthy. Panic attacks, depression, and insomnia are just some of the symptoms they experience. Students are facing various serious mental disorders that come with several different symptoms and consequences for their individual life inside and outside college.

GOING TO COLLEGE TURNS OUT TO BE A LIFE-CHANGING EXPERIENCE – IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE

The risk of developing a mental disorder – for example depression - rises with every semester spent at university. Moreover, the prescription of antidepressants are at an all-time high.

The reasons for developing a mental disorder are as diverse as students’ personalities. Although, studies were able to identify the main reasons, such as stress due to an uncertain fear of failure and the fear of the future.

Besides there

are many other reasons that could trigger a mental disorder. Stressful periods during the semester only favor its outbreak.

In the course of the Bologna Reform the pressure to perform as well as insecurity have become an ever greater challenge. The road to a university degree is paved with numerous tests and exams, with essays to write and fears of what comes next. The pressure to perform is directly connected to the students’ mental health situation. The fundamental problem, however, is not just the non-availability of counseling programs, but moreover the mental problems that are caused by the pressure to perform, excessive competitiveness and the fear of admitting a weakness by recognizing a mental health issue.

Some universities already offer on campus mental health services. The ongoing high demand led universities to expand those services even more. As well with expending the capacity, the services could not reach any student that was in need. While most students suffer more in examination phases of the semester, the services are even more occupied during these times.

The question therefor is what universities, society and the students her-/or himself can do in order to remain healthy or even to fight the disorder successfully?

However, this is linked to an even more important question.

Do we want the students solely to learn how to survive university and how to graduate as soon as possible without really taking care of their inner struggle, or do we want students to understand patterns that might put their mental health at risk and teach them how to overcome these and how to obtain a healthy mind and body?

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN INCREASING WORKLOAD AND THEIR SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

While going to college, fighting a mental disorder, students also experience a somewhat “second disorder”, which is in fact the stigmatization by society. People that suffer from depression are called “lazy”; people that suffer from schizophrenia are often called “aggressive” or even “unpredictable”. This leads to an increase of disorder-specific symptoms and slows down the process of recovery. Nobody wants to be seen as “weak” or even “lazy”.

This promotes behavior patterns that avoid seeking help and promotes patterns that lead to students ignoring their symptoms and keeping their inner struggle to themselves.

While depressive exhaustion is nowadays called burn-out, people tend to see positive features in a diagnosed depression. People that suffer from burn-out are mostly seen as hard-working and determined. This shows how much wording and language can do in the fight against the stigma. While for people living in Hollywood the weekly therapy with a psychologist becomes more and more of a status symbol, especially students still see a personal defeat in such circumstance.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

More mental health services need to be founded, so that every European university offers individual counseling services, screening and evaluation to their students. Moreover, national wide 24-hour crisis hotlines should be provided – or, if they exist promoted by the university itself. Besides that, university staff needs special training in order to increase their understanding of mental issues. Especially in exams periods – or better, before those stressful weeks – universities should also offer training to ensure a better handling of pressure and to better deal with increasing workloads.

Gloria Müller

28

BullsEye

Foreign students: Why they should pay more than nationals

In 2017, around 27 percent of students in Austria were foreign. Moreover, the UK, the second most popular study destination worldwide, hosts an average of 458.490 students from other countries per year. As it has become more accessible, studying abroad has become a more popular choice and an increasing number of foreign students are flocking European universities.

But are there equal opportunities for everybody when it comes to payment conditions?

The average student needs around 6-9 semesters for their bachelor’s degree. Until they finish their studies, most students are not able to work on a full-time basis. In several countries in the EU, barely any programs are offered that allow students to work and study at the same time. That being said, it must be questioned how they can afford their education. In many countries in the EU, therefore, the state helps young people to finance their studies or pay most of the costs in general for their nationals and parts of the studies for foreign students.

When talking about foreign students it has to be mentioned that this article does not focus on Erasmus students, who only enjoy one semester abroad, but young people who decide to spend their whole duration of study abroad.

But who pays for education? Speaking for Austria, nationals only pay 19,20 Euro per semester for their studies. Compared with other countries, where student loans may be paid back until rent and studies are around 12.000-20.000 Euro per semester, studying in Austria may be seen as being “for free”. But how is that even possible? An average student that graduates from the University of Vienna costs the state around 41.086 Euro over the years.

Even more so, a medicine student costs 60.000 Euro each year. That would mean that the education of

a doctor in Austria is worth several hundreds of thousands of Euros.

The training of a future doctor, therefore, may be a huge investment. The state trusts in their young talent and tries to encourage them to give their best during their studies to become a successful and important part of the country’s economy.

Many universities suffer from a lack of capacitiy for their students. It is not unlikely that not everybody can join the class they prefer or might not even get a seat at all. To compensate for the lack of capacity, extra courses need to be set up. As a result, the need for additional professors leads to more costs.

Also, universities try to provide lectures in English for exchange students. In general, foreign students prefer to sign up for English-taught classes instead of the ones taught in the local language, further increasing the demand for such classes. Native level English-speaking professors turn out to be more expensive, because few professors are able to lecture their subject in a foreign language. External professors are paid a high amount of money to do so. To enjoy the comfort of joining a lecture in their mother tongue, it does make sense for foreign students to pay more for their studies than nationals, who do not need lectures in English.

Talking about the moral reasons why foreign students should pay more for their studies than nationals, it has to be faced that with thousands of international stu-

dents, countries face a high fluctuation of young graduates after finishing their studies with a degree. Many business sectors suffer from a lack of educated experts (for example doctors), because the foreign students leave the system.

Therefore, it seems rather fair that they pay more for their studies in a different country. A country, that believes in them and invests a huge amount of money in their future career. A country that relies on their profound knowledge, which they gained during their educational journey. A country that they might leave after they experienced excellent programs. A country that gets nothing back from people who go back to their home country instead of paying the invested money on their education back into the system so that new young talents can be supported.

To sum up in can be said that is justified, that foreign students pay more than nationals. Not only do they benefit from international education systems, but they might leave after their studies and won’t pay taxes to finance the training for the next generation that is yet to come.

They use the capacities of nationals and produce extra costs for international courses without producing that much of a value.

Johanna Gruber

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

29

EDITORIAL TEAM 2018/19

Julien Sassel (29) is a Belgian and Italian dual citizen and has been an active member in EDS since 2012.

He has a Master in International Relations from the Université Catholique de Louvain and a MA in EU International Relations and Diplomacy Studies at the College of Europe, in Bruges.

Johannes Bürgin (21) is a German student from the city of Nuremberg.

He is member of the committee for international relations of the country’s biggest political student organization, RCDS. He is currently studying International Business Studies B.A at Friedrich-Alexander University.

Mattia Caniglia (31) has a Master in Strategic Studies and years of experience in international organisations that gave him knowledge of global geopolitics and economics. He is currently collaborating as a political and economic analyst with media like Foreign Policy, Fortune China and The Guardian.

Santiago de la Presilla (24) is a journalist and communications adviser with a focus on Russia, European affairs and finance. He previously worked for the American Chamber of Commerce and is now the Warsaw correspondent for Visegrad Insight.

Elie-Joe Dergham (28) is a Lebanese and Canadian dual citizen and has been an active member in EDS since 2015. He has a Bachelor Degree in Banking and Finance from the Notre Dame University - Lebanon and is a certified anti money laundering specialist (CAMS).

Beppe Galea (22) lives in Gozo, Malta and is a European Studies graduate from the University of Malta. He served as Vice Chairman of European Democrat Students during the working year 2017/2018.

He is currently the Deputy News Manager of the church media organisation Newsbook.com.mt.

Johanna-Barbara Gruber (22) was born in Austria and is currently finishing her studies in business economics at the University of Economics in Vienna. She has been writing for student’s newspapers since her first semester. Her academic interest lies in gender studies and diversity management.

Sabine Hanger (24) studies Law in Vienna. Becoming member of the Aktionsgemeinschaft in 2016, she got elected 2017 to be the Chairwoman of AG Jus, offering a situation in which she is confronted with responsibility and political sensitiveness, but also opportunities to work with various people.

Desislava Kemalova (26) is from Bulgaria. She is currently doing a PhD in Law in Sofia University where she also teaches the discipline. She has work experience as a government official, and currently legal consulting. She has been active in EDS since 2015 and served as a co-chair of EU’19 WG.

30

Vladimir Milic (28) has a BA in International Economics and Finance. He is currently working for a cultural centre in Belgrade, Serbia. He considers EDS as a platform on which to discuss issues on Europe's future. He is a supporter of EU integration interested in the future of EU – China relations.

Anna Mkrtchyan (24) is Armenian, and is an member in YRPA. She has a Master in Law and is in the first year of a Ph.D. course. She has been a member of Yerevan city council for a year. She is a legal adviser of the legal department of the National Assembly of Ar menia.

BullsEye

EXECUTIVE BUREAU 2018/19

Virgilio Falco (29) is EDS Chairman.

Graduated in Law and as a president of the Italian association StudiCentro, he worked on writing the reform of the school system in Italy. He has working experiences at the Italian Parliament and in private universities. He writes for the newspaper Il Foglio.

Sara Juriks (24) is from Oslo, Norway. She has a BA in Music, an MA in Politics and is currently studying Anthropology.

She has been active in politics since 2011, both nationally in Høyres Studenter and then in EDS since 2014. Currently she is the Secretary General of EDS.

Hubert Tadych (24) pursued a Master of Laws degree in Poland. He used to work not only as a paralegal, but also as an assistant to an MP and as a communication manager to the party.

A former Co-Chair and now with-in the bureau he is responsible for the communications and the EU Elections.

He also serves the EPP Group.

Tommi Pyykkö (30) lives in Helsinki, Finland. Newly graduated from the University of Helsinki, where he studied French, Europe-an Studies and Political Science. Currently in the bureau he is the Vice-Chairman responsible for publications (BullsEye and the Annual Report) and he also runs the website.

Pantelis A. Poetis (25), from Cyprus is a Vice Chairman of EDS. He studied Law and International Relations - Global Political Economy at Middlesex University London. Pantelis holds the portfolios of Statutory Amendments, Member-Organisations and Website. He works at Dr Andreas P. Poetis LLC Legal Firm.

Gergely Losonci (26) is a Hungarian MBA student at Corvinus University of Budapest. He holds Bachelor degrees in Business & Management and Finance.

Gergely worked in the European Parliament and currently works as a business consultant in Budapest. As EDS VC he is responsible for the EU 2019 Elections and the 2018 EPP Congress.

Carlo Giacomo Angrisano Girauta (22) is an ESADE Law and Global Governance student. He is currently the International Secretary of NNGG (Spain). As EDS Vice Chairman his responsibilities consists of writing event reports and newsletters, as well as being responsible for Latin American relations.

Robert Kiss (30) lives and works in Sfantu Gheorghe, Romania. He holds a BA in Business & Management from Corvinus University of Budapest, and a Msc in Economy & Tourism. Currently he is doing his PhD in Economics. He is active in EDS since 2014. As Vice-Chairman he is responsible for the Permanent Working Groups and the Conference Resolutions.

Boyana Taneva (26) MGERB Bulgaria. She served as a Co-Chair of the Policies for Europe Working Group during 2017/2018 year.

Boyana was elected as Vice-Chairwoman of EDS in 2018. Currently, within the Executive Bureau she is responsible for communication, social media and event reports.

Zeger Saerens (24) is specialized inEuropean and Corporate Law. He holds academic degrees from the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KUL) and Univer-sité Saint-Louis (Brussels). Zeger gained his work experiences in several law firms and public institutions. As a ViceChair he is entrusted in the Bureau with Fund-ing and the Statutory Amendments.

The official magazine of European Democrat Students

Libertas Ezako (27) lives in Namur, Belgium. She holds a Bachelor degree in Political-Sciences and pursues her Master’s degree in International Relations at the Université Catholique de Louvain. She has been a member of Jeunes cdH since 2015 and currently she works as Deputy Secretary General for EDS.

31

european democrat students

epp european people’s party

FIND OUT HOW TO CONTACT US! Visit us at Rue du Commerce 10, BE-1000 Brussels, Belgium Visit our homepage at edsnet.eu

Follow us on Instagram at @edsnet.eu

Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/edsnet.eu

Read previous issues at bullseye-magazine.eu

Follow us on Twitter at @edsnet

Contact us at students@epp.org

EUROPEAN DEMOCRAT STUDENTS IS THE OFFICIAL STUDENT ORGANISATION OF THE EUROPEAN PEOPLE’S PARTY

eds