Lessons In Leadership From The Best In The Business Lloyd Salmons, Co-Founder, Peptalk

As we approach the end of the year, we can look back and put into context everything that has been thrown at us in 2020. Revenues have been hit, deals put on hold, career development has taken a back seat and the connection between worker, colleagues, management and clients disrupted to such an extent that we’re unlikely to ever go back to the world as it was in 2019. But that presents an opportunity for individuals in business - both management and employees - to create a more future-proofed and fluid structure that be er works for everyone. And as we stand on the precipice of a new year, a new vaccine and new hope for a be er 2021 some of the learnings from this pandemic will prove invaluable for every element of commerce in making tenta ve steps to ge ng back to what it does best. Because that’s what businesses do. They focus on the posi ves, learn from experience and look for solu ons. Nowhere is this more acute than in helping teams and staff recover and catch-up from this year. Knowing what we know now, there are some key lessons in leadership businesses can deploy to make sure next year feels like the sunshine a er the rain: Grasp the opportunity to build back be er

The last nine months has o en felt like we are 'living from work' rather than 'working from home' but there is no doubt that COVID has caused a shift in how and where people work for the long-term. It means that for both company founders and senior management and the staff they employ, fi nding me to separate work from personal life is cri cal. The lines will inevitably blur but eff ort must be made to keep them separate. Things like a dedicated shut down me, ring fenced family days, dedicated me to exercise and just ge ng away from the screen are key. It’s a great chance to establish processes that can better balance work, mental health and family or personal life that should be grasped with both hands.

2021 won't be without challenge

By all accounts we’re about to see anything from a double-dip recession to the worst depression since the second world war. Eitherway, the immediate outlook isn't great but it won't last forever and if history teaches us anything it’s that we can and do bounce back. Remember, if your business can survive this, it can survive anything.

Place a high stock on resilience & adaptability

Understand that resilience & adaptability are important transferable skills. If you and your teams can flex at short notice to cope with spikes in demand or disrup on, that is hugely valuable. As an employer, place a great stock on these traits and encourage your employees to display them - even if they don't feel then can or have the ability to do so. The good news is, these traits are a ques on of nurture rather than nature and with the right guidance we can all learn to thrive, whatever is thrown our way. Empower the effi ciency of employees This year has underlined that people are unique as the spotlight has been placed on how individuals cope in a stressed situa on. Some have families to juggle, some work be er late at night or early in the morning, some can be more productive at home while others prefer to be in an offi ce environment to work best. Whatever it is, businesses have been able to see down to an individual level how best people func on and moving forward there must be allowances for this to continue. Employees have been empowered to fi nd answers to a complex work-life balance equa on and, in many cases, have come up with the right answer for their own circumstances. As a result, we’ve seen a trend for increasing produc vity and people more content with the set-up of day to day opera ons.

Innovate to mo vate

As people con nue to work remotely and the days of the all-in-offi ce are behind us, founders need to look at innova ve ways to support the welfare, development and 'experience' of their teams to account for shi ing pa erns of work and communica on. While there is (hopefully) s ll a place for it, the days of relying on a team trip to the pub to keep up morale are over and have been replaced by innova ons enabling employees to tailor solu ons to their needs whether that be; mental health, fi nancial planning, coping with pressure or just a shot in the arm to get up and go again. The very best - those that get to the top of their chosen career - do so on talent and work ethic. But this is based on a whole spectrum of other, so er skills like adaptability, problem solving, communica on, innova on and much more. These are the skills that we will all need to lean on if we are to make 2021 a year to remember for all the right reasons.

DONALD TRUMP: DONALD TRUMP: The Successful President?

On 20th January 2017, Donald John Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States. Trump ignited his conserva ve base with his campaign trail talk of media bias and his promises to ‘build the wall’ and ‘drain the swamp’, leaving each and every one of his Republican opponents for the party nomina on behind. He was berated, cri cised and considered completely unqualifi ed to be the leader of the free world, yet when the election came Hillary Clinton and her vast poli cal background did not compare to the raw passion and energy that Trump had given to the working class around the na on. 4 years later, we sit and watch as he desperately clings onto any power he can by contes ng one of the founding fathers key principles of democracy, while poli cal commentators deem him to have been a failure in his role. But let’s fl ip that. Forge ng all the non-sensical and wildly inaccurate tweets, his o en misleading speeches and the nega ve, o en abusive rhetoric – lets focus on what truly dictates presidential success: the legacy he leaves on the na on. Was he actually successful in the key policy statements he made such as the economy? Was the media fair or did he actually have a case a er all? He faced immediate opposition from all corners, was that jus fi ed, or did it damage him before he even had the chance to sit in the Oval Offi ce? Clearly there is signifi cant need to see what he achieved, and how successful he truly was from a purely opera onal perspec ve. Despite all, Donald Trump was undoubtably a success for the Republican agenda. By his own hand, he in only four years was able to completely revolu onise the social judiciary by appoin ng 3 supreme court judges, such as recent nominee Amy Coney Barra , which for the fi rst me in nearly 80 years makes the bench strongly conserva ve due to its current 6-3 majority. 220 other federal judges were also appointed across the country which with the American legisla ve branch being 1/3rd of government allows the conserva ve intent to be strengthened na onwide for years to come. The 1% are stronger under Trump, unsurprisingly, considering he himself belongs to this group, however this also comes as a result of his business acumen with the change of the tax codes causing corpora on tax to drop from 35% to 21%. Such prospect of economic prosperity has been signalled due to the ability to reinvest this money into the business and ensure the future of the workforce that has seen steadily growing unemployment before this work via the Trump administra on. Not all of his achievements have had personal benefi t either, it can be considered direct and pragma c that he has taken steps to lower minimum sentences and provide early release programmes for drug felons, especially those concerned with marijuana which

has slowly become wider legalised during his presidency, as well as his work on the world stage with his successful infi ltra on of ISIS caliphates in the Syrian compounds where American soldiers were able to locate and assassinate leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi in late October 2019. By all accounts, this demonstrates a clear no on of Donald Trump’s successes as a leader, despite the popular opinion. It illustrates that whether he is right or inevitably wrong, that he is unafraid to take the necessary ini a ve to make hard decisions and take action when the situation needs it. He has evidenced clear ability on the interna onal stage to rip up any trade deals he fi nds to be unfair, even refusing to make concessions for the global trade ini a ves as the only things he will sign are those that favour U.S interests, whilst taking a protec onist stance when they don’t. In such cases as the European Union, he rejects the idea of group trading with a preference to negotiate with individual na ons due to their common dissen on and lack of common interests, language or even need to work together because it does not fit the kinds of partnership he feels is appropriate for the country. It is easy to berate him for such choices, but such a bold stance is brave, courageous and safeguards the interests of his workers who may have not got a good deal for themselves fi nancially had there been an unbalanced agreement. To understand the success, you simply have to look past the image and reputation he has been given and appreciate what actually should matter to the vo ng public, the fact that the country is focusing on its own benefit- he is the leader of the United States. No one else. Such is this fact that he has created new interna onal rela onships with other similarly discredited leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. The ability to reach out and befriend such notorious poli cians through friendship and to achieve posi ve nego a ons has allowed there to be a set of circumstances where co-existence and even peaceful solu ons to major global problems are on the cusp of being agreed. Despite the similari es of them all understanding each other due to possessing the same na onalist self-mission, Trump is an experienced businessman as well as a current poli cian. He has dealt with unsavoury figures for a long time; therefore his experience and skillset allow him to do what is needed for the benefi t of the country. There is s ll the outstanding ques on of how much image should relate to the idea of success. There is no doubt that on a personal level he is almost repulsive with his rude, arrogant, manipula ve, sexist and philandering personality not being appropriate for the level of public offi ce he currently holds. He is instantly so easy to dislike that it remains en rely conceivable that had one of his opponents for the nomination won instead, that they would be lauded and publicly beloved for the same kind of achievements. There is some evidence to suggest that such a strong and loyal voter base is the reason as to why the 2020 elec on was the highest turnout ever, as he brought out of the shadows a working-class audience in the rural areas who were cold and dismissive of poli cs, yet who suddenly gained hope that someone held their same values and would lead them into a brighter future. The minority of these voters who became protestors and grasp to great levels of idiocrasy in order to overturn their own cons tu onal amendments may not be the leaders of tomorrow, however the passion and dedica on you see is a testament to how successful Trump truly was at ge ng his message out to the people who needed it most. Such percep on has centred around the ideals of the media, which have long been a target of the Trump machine. While difficult to completely comprehend, there has been some forms of mistreatment levied against the president during his me in office with the way in which his achievements have always been put into second place behind his nega ve presenta on. Now bias is always a media certainty: as while muddled

in self-pity, Donald Trump is correct when he explains that the media twist or misrepresent his words to fi t their personal narra ve. Unfortunately, that’s not anything new or personal towards the president as every American news outlet from NBC to CBS to FOX, each one takes its place on the political spectrum based on its affi lia ons whether down to the owner, the state or the commentators it wishes to employ. His vic misation or ‘fake news’ angle is in fact how every person in the world would be represented, only Donald Trump is such a polarising figure that his personality and his ac ons, from the constant slandering to the unethical public interac ons make it hard to focus on his incredible accomplishments considering the entertainment value he otherwise provides. Barack Obama was greatly hated by republican members and broadcasters, however he treated them respec ully and with maturity and therefore received a fair and professional treatment that refl ected more onto policy. He never a acked his opponent’s deceased son as a war criminal or used the news to fuel an ongoing vende a against one of the largest establishments in the modern world, especially at the extent of the nation’s personal health as Trump did in the early stages of Coronavirus where he suggested it could even possibly be a form of drama za on as a ploy against his leadership. To this point, it is very easy to focus on this as support for Donald Trump as a failed President. Division in the na on is now at a point wider than ever, and it is hard to imagine that without being a more moderate Democrat, Joe Biden would ever have been able to win the elec on. This is a Trump causa on, down to his insistence to push his base to widen the gap and a ack the media for his own benefi t to ensure that if as he claims it’s never his fault, then the only solu on is that it is all a false narra ve to a ack him. But this is mildly intelligent. He has forgotten that the media took him from his reality as a child handed the keys to his father’s fortune and created this image of a self-made real estate mogul who became a media personality almost overnight. And the sudden change actually speaks to the Republican party who hate how the media is current and mostly progressive by seeking truth and constant development, conservative Chris ans are scared of the danger they face when their personal lives are steeped in tradi on and never devia ng from what their bible tells them. On elec on day with their dismissive approach to media polling, they turn up in large numbers to vote as if they didn’t previously exist and create a scenario that skews the votes more in the Presidents favour. This support allows him into a situa on whereby being staunch believers, they buy into his theories that big tech is against him despite their early support when he fi rst considered a poli cal career, and they are why the deep state conspiracy is now so prevalent as Donald Trump himself manipulates this theory in his last-ditch a empts to keep his grip on power. The reality of ‘deep state’ is that rather than being a conspiracy, simply put it is the only hurdle he can’t physically get past, as its real form is the two separate branches of governmental power that keep him from autonomous control. The democrat’s control over the house of representa ves and their legacy following 8 years in power means that the administra on he took over has more control than he cares to admit, and such is his tenacity that rather than admit his defeats, he turns a perpetually gridlocked system into the opportunity to campaign for greater power and possibly the ability to act alone without approval. Abrasive, tough but it is difficult to argue that Donald Trump hasn’t been successful. At every step of his journey he has been the charisma c and ground-breaking leader America has yearned for, only due to his rural and unappreciated support and outspoken if not occasionally ridiculous temperament does the country discredit a man who literally walked out of his own New York offi ce and into the Oval with very li le opposi on from anyone. Perhaps the biggest success he will achieve is the las ng impact he will have on American poli cs. He might have contributed to tax improvement, unemployment and interna onal rela ons, but crucially he has exposed the American system for what it truly is, cracked and broken. Donald Trump was never the problem; he was just the mirror that embodies how America truly looks. The racism, self-interest, tax evasion and all his other endeavours are examples of real problems being ignored every single day, so finally after 4 years America must wake up and see what they truly represent as a nation to themselves and the en re world. Joe Biden is the new President because America didn’t like what it saw, yet unless they confront the xenophobia, growing class/ ideological divide and fi nally solve the clear political inadequacies nothing will ever change. Trump may just go down as one of the most memorable Presidents in history, si ng in an unimaginable position next to Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jeff erson and others. His greatest success will not have been his public service but the legacy he is des ned to leave behind, the catalyst for an America that truly needs some way to become great again.

With the USD in decline, how else can investors hedge risk?

The US dollar has long been the benchmark for a stable currency. It has long worked as a defensive asset and affi rmed “cash is king”. But in 2020, the US Federal Reserve took unprecedented measures to provide monetary support to the population, “printing dollars.” In a few months, the global dollar supply has soared by about 20%. And although infl ation in the US is still very low, Citibank predicts the dollar will devalue by the same 20% in 2021, and the dollar index has already dropped to a three-year low. If the king is no longer the dollar, then who?

By Victor Argonov, senior analyst at EXANTE

Euro and other world currencies. The same problem, only so er

Despite Ci bank’s forecasts, infl a on in the US is s ll below 2% per annum, and the Fed has leverage to maintain the dollar rate even in the face of expanded supply. According to “dollar op mists”, cash is s ll the king, and if someone encroaches on the domina on of the American dollar, then it is some other cash - the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, etc. the DXY dollar index, which refl ects the dynamics of the American currency against the euro, pound, yen, franc, as well as the Canadian dollar and the Swedish krona. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar index was in the range of 96-100, and at the peak of the crisis in March soared to 103. Most investors, selling securities and other assets, preferred to transfer capital in the US dollar, rather than in euros or other currencies. Even knowing that the Fed was fl ooding the market with liquidity, they trusted this currency more in the old fashioned way. But since May the situa on has changed. The dollar index began to decline and already (December 4) rolled back

below 91 - the mark at which it was previously in 2018. This means that storing capital in a basket of other currencies can mi gate the possible deprecia on of the dollar. Since mid-February, the euro has grown by 11% against the dollar, the yen - by 8%, and the yuan - by almost 7%. However, this is only a half measure. Mutual exchange rates and the dollar index refl ect only the change in their purchasing power rela ve to each other. However, they do not say anything about their absolute purchasing power. For example, if one day all world currencies depreciate by half, but do it synchronously, this will not aff ect the euro / dollar rate or DXY at all. However, at the same me, ci zens will see their por olios half, at least temporarily.

Cryptocurrencies. Algorithmic protec on against infl a on and long-term growth, but its own risks

Of all the assets of the cryptocurrency, perhaps the best showed itself against the backdrop of the COVID crisis. Although in February-March they collapsed even deeper than stock indices, their recovery turned out to be much faster, and since October, the dynamics of cryptocurrencies has almost completely ceased to depend on the whims of stock markets. A er the spring recovery, many investors believed in cryptocurrencies as a defensive asset, and during the pre-election drawdown of the indices they did not dump them “for the company.” The rate of bitcoin (BTC) and many other coins began to rise, regardless of whether stock indices are declining or rising. At the same time, other factors began to work in favor of cryptocurrencies: their acceptance into the account of the popular payment system PayPal, the expecta on of new measures to support the popula on by Biden, etc. In November, Ci bank’s forecasts of the threat of dollar devalua on by 20 % and, at the same me, the growth of the bitcoin rate above $ 300K. Both predic ons were made by a reputable fi nancial ins tu on and sounded like a signal from the establishment to a mass of investors: “The dollar is bad, buy bitcoin!” This was a very apt statement when you consider that Bitcoin has been known as an excellent defensive asset against currency risks since 2018. While its hedging role against stock market crashes is s ll controversial, it has helped buyers more than once against na onal currency crashes. The crises in Turkey, Argen na, Venezuela and a number of other countries have shown that the collapse of the na onal currency is causing a surge in interest in cryptocurrencies. And if now the me has come for the dollar’s instability, then cryptocurrencies can come to the rescue here too.

Index funds. In theory, the dollar is perfectly hedged, but in prac ce they themselves o en collapse

In the modern world, a par cularly rapid fl ow of capital goes between the stock market and the dollar. Major stock indices such as the S&P 500 (stocks of the top 500 US companies) usually move against the dollar. When people sell stocks, the dollar goes up and vice versa. Buying funds that track indices (for example, SPY, the price of which is propor onal to the S&P 500 or DIA, the price of which is propor onal to the Dow Jones), on average, allows not only insuring against inflation, but also ge ng a good income above it. Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has grown at an average rate of 8% per year. For this reason, it is wise for any investor to have stocks and especially index funds in their por olio. But like cryptocurrencies, they are not a panacea. Thus, like cryptocurrencies, index funds insure an investor against currency risks in the long-term horizons, but in the medium-term they can fail. Therefore, as in many other cases, the best solu on is to diversify: store part of the capital in tradi onal currencies (dollar, euro, yuan, franc, etc.), part in cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, etc.), part in stocks and index funds (SPY, DIA, selected successful stocks from different industries).