DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. TOTAL DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
4
2. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
8
3. DEFENCE EXPENDITURE BREAKDOWN
10
4. COLLABORATIVE DEFENCE EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT AND R&T EXPENDITURE
11
5. DEFENCE PERSONNEL
13
6. DEPLOYABILITY
14
7. COLLECTIVE BENCHMARKS
15
More information on the European Defence Agency is available at www.eda.europa.eu ISBN: 978-92-95075-42-9 ISSN: 1831-9513 Doi: 10.2836/588439 © European Defence Agency, 2018 For reproduction or use of this material, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder. Responsible editor: Elisabeth Schoeffmann, EDA Printed in Belgium
2
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION The European Defence Agency (EDA) collects defence data on an annual basis, and has done so since 2006, in line with the Agency’s Ministerial Steering Board Decision of November 2005. The Ministries of Defence of the Agency’s 27 Member States (MS) provide the data. EDA acts as a custodian of the data and publishes the aggregated figures in its booklets. The 2005 data has been collected during the pilot exercise, which included only a limited number of indicators. A complete dataset is available since 2006, based on the revised list of indicators, including the four collective benchmarks for investment, approved by the Agency’s Ministerial Steering Board in November 2007. All data is collated (“total” incorporates “27 EDA Member States” ), and it has been rounded. Unless specifically indicated, defence expenditure figures are in current prices. A large part of the previously published data has been revised, as several MS have updated prior years figures as part of the 2016-2017e data collection exercise. 2017 estimates are only available for some indicators, as not all MS were able to provide estimated data for all indicators. The data is presented in graphs, followed by short analysis. Comma is used as a decimal marker and dot as a thousand separator, as this is the practice followed by the majority of the EDA Member States.
3
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
1. TOTAL DEFENCE EXPENDITURE Since 2015, in addition to the actual defence expenditure of the previous year, EDA Defence Data also collects the estimated defence expenditure of the current year. This allows, for the first time, to look at the difference between the planned defence budget and what was actually spent on defence in the EU (Figure 1). Figure 1. Total defence expenditure (current prices): actual vs. estimated data € 220 Bln 214
€ 215 Bln 208
€ 210 Bln 204
€ 205 Bln
204 205
201
201 € 200 Bln
200 196
€ 195 Bln € 190 Bln
196 194
193
192
195 190
€ 185 Bln Estimated defence expenditure Actual defence expenditure
€ 180 Bln 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
As of 2013 – the lowest level recorded since 2005 – total defence expenditure is increasing both in nominal and in real 1 terms. In 2016, the 27 EDA MS collectively spent €205 billion (current prices) on defence – €15 billion or 7,9% more than in 2013. In real terms, 2016 total defence expenditure amounted to €189 billion, representing an increase of €6,7 billion or 3,7%, compared to 2013. According to estimated figures, defence spending continued to grow in 2017 (+4,2%) almost at the same speed as in 2015 (+4,7%), reaching €214 billion in current prices or €198 billion in constant 2010 prices (Figure 2). Defence expenditure as a share of GDP (constant 2010 prices) has been decreasing from the highest level of 1,70% in 2005 to the lowest of 1,39% in 2015. In 2016, the share of defence marginally increased to 1,40%, and in 2017, it is estimated to be 1,43% (Figure 3). In relation to overall government spending, the percentage share spent on defence increased marginally from 3.00%, in 2015 to 3,04%, in 2016, and in 2017, it is estimated to have reached 3,11%.
4
1. I n order to measure real growth and ensure a “real” comparison over years, inflation needs to be taken into account. Thus, data from 2005 to 2017e has been adjusted to 2010 economic conditions. Source of GDP deflators: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Macro-economic database AMECO.
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
Figure 2. Total defence expenditure: current vs. constant 2010 prices € 220 Bln Accession of BG and RO
Accession of HR
Wales Summit 214
€ 215 Bln € 210 Bln 204
€ 205 Bln
204 205
€ 200 Bln
198
€ 195 Bln € 190 Bln Current prices Constant 2010 prices
189 € 185 Bln 185
Source of GDP deflators: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Macroeconomic database AMECO.
€ 180 Bln 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
Figure 3. Total defence expenditure as a % of GDP (constant 2010 prices) 2,50%
2,25%
2% guideline 2,00%
1,75% 1,63%
1,50% 1,39%
1,40%
2015
2016
1,43%
1,25% Source of GDP figures: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Macroeconomic database AMECO.
1,00% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017e
5
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
In 2016, there were four MS spending at least 2% of their national GDP for defence purposes. Overall, 18 of 27 MS increased defence spending from 2015 to 2016 (Figure 4). Figure 4. Total defence expenditure (comparison) Defence Expenditure 2016 % of GDP
Defence Expenditure 2016 € Bln
% Change in Defence Expenditure, 2015-2016
MS 1 MS 2 MS 3 MS 4 MS 5 MS 6 MS 7 MS 8 MS 9 MS 10 MS 11 MS 12 MS 13 MS 14 MS 15 MS 16 MS 17 MS 18 MS 19 MS 20 MS 21 MS 22 MS 23 MS 24 MS 25 MS 26 MS 27
0,0%
6
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
€0
€20
€40
€60
-20% -10%
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
In a hypothetical scenario where all 27 EDA MS were to spent at least 2% of their GDP on defence, the total European defence budget in 2016 would have amounted to €293 billion (current prices), representing a difference of €88 billion, compared to the actual level (Figure 5). Based on the current GDP estimates published by DG ECFIN and given that the 2% of GDP level was maintained by all MS, in 2019, Europe could have around €322 billion available for defence.
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
Figure 5. Total defence expenditure (current prices): actual level vs. hypothetical 2% of GDP level € 340 Bln € 320 Bln 300 293
€ 300 Bln € 280 Bln € 260 Bln
-88 Bln € 240 Bln
Hypothetical 2% of GDP Actual level Source of GDP figures: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Macro-economic database AMECO.
214
€ 220 Bln € 200 Bln
205
€ 180 Bln 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
7
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
2. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE Figure 6 examines regional developments of defence spending over time in relation to the base year – 2005. The year 2013 broke the trend of declining military spending in Europe that was observed since 2007. In three European regions – Eastern, Northern, and Western Europe – defence expenditure increased, compared to 2005, while it decreased in Southern Europe. In Western Europe representing eight MS, defence spending was flat until 2013, with a subsequent moderate increase of around 10%. In Northern Europe defence spending has increased since 2009, and in 2016, the five MS spent over 20% more than what they had spent in 2005. In Eastern Europe, defence expenditure increased rapidly and substantially. Already in 2014, the six MS spent 60% more than in 2005, and in 2017, their combined defence budgets are estimated to have doubled, compared to the base year. On the contrary, defence spending in Southern Europe has gradually decreased since 2006 up until 2015, where defence expenditure of the eight MS accounted for less than 80% of their 2005 budget. Since 2016, defence spending in Southern Europe is increasing, but it remains below the reference level. Figure 6. Evolution of defence expenditure by region*, as compared to 2005 220
Accession of BG and RO
Accession of HR
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
Wales Summit Eastern Europe
200
180
160
140 Northern Europe 120 Western Europe
100
Southern Europe 80
60 2005
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
* EDA MS were assigned to regions on the basis of the United Nations Statistics Division Composition of Regions’ classification, adapted to EDA-specific environment. Northern Europe: EE, FI, LV, LT, and SE; Eastern Europe: BG, CZ, HU, PL, RO, and SK; Western Europe: AT, BE, FR, DE, IE, LU, NL, and UK; Southern Europe: HR, CY, EL, IT, MT, PT, SI, and ES.
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
3. DEFENCE EXPENDITURE BREAKDOWN A closer look at defence investment reveals a widening gap between defence equipment procurement and defence R&D (including R&T). In other terms, an increase in investment is more and more driven by increasing expenditure on equipment procurement, whereas expenditure on R&D remains stagnant at around €9 billion (Figure 9). Figure 7. Defence Expenditure Breakdown 2006 2017e
Personnel
54,1%
48,8%
Operation and maintenance
21,3%
27,2%
Investment (Equipment Procurement + R&D)
19,4%
20,6%
Infrastructure / Construction
2,9%
2,7%
Other
2,3%
0,8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
9
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
Figure 8. Defence investment breakdown
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
€ 40 Bln 36,2 34,3
€ 35 Bln € 30 Bln
30,9
29,2
28,4 25,9
€ 25 Bln € 20 Bln € 15 Bln € 10 Bln
9,8
8,8
8,6
9,2
8,8
7,9
€ 5 Bln Equipment Procurement R&D (including R&T)
€ 0 Bln 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
Expenditure on defence R&T continued to decrease, and in 2016, it was record-low amounting to just below €1,6 billion. This is significantly below the Collective Benchmark of 2% to be spent for defence R&T of total defence spending (agreed by EDA MS in 2007). If the 27 EDA MS were to spend collectively 2% of their total defence budget on R&T, the 2016 figure would be more than double, reaching €4,1 billion (Figure 9). Figure 9. Defence R&T expenditure: actual level vs. hypothetical 2% of total defence spending level
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
€ 5.000 Mln € 4.500 Mln 4.025
3.896
€ 4.000 Mln
4.084
4.109
4.284
€ 3.500 Mln € 3.000 Mln
2.661
-2.528 Mln
€ 2.500 Mln
2.100
€ 2.000 Mln
1.747
€ 1.500 Mln
1.705 1.581 Hypothetical 2% of total defence spending level Actual level
€ 1.000 Mln € 500 Mln 2005
10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
4. COLLABORATIVE DEFENCE EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT AND R&T EXPENDITURE
2. Adjusted List of Indicators for Defence Data (EDA Doc. No. 2007/12), and Collective Benchmarks (EDA Doc. No. 2007/13)
Since 2012 it has not been possible to have a comprehensive picture of total MS expenditure on collaborative (including European collaboration) defence equipment procurement and defence R&T programmes, as several MS were not in a position to provide these data. This affects not only four collaborative indicators, but also two of the four Collective Benchmarks for investment approved by the EDA Steering Board on 19 November 2007 2 . Nevertherless, although incomplete, 2016 data suggest slight improvements in collaborative defence equipment procurement, while collaboration in defence R&T continues to diminish. Only in 2017, collaborative defence R&T is estimated to have increased slightly. European collaborative defence equipment procurement expenditure amounted to €6,3billion in 2016. If, however, the 27 EDA MS complied with the 2007 benchmark to collectively spend 35% of total defence equipment procurement budget in collaboration, the 2016 figure would approach €11 billion (Figure 10). Similarly, if the 27 EDA MS collectively spent 20% of their total defence R&T budget collaborating with each other, as the 2007 benchmark aims for, the 2016 European collaborative defence R&T expenditure would have been €316 million – more than twice as large as the actual level of €143 million (Figure 11).
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
Figure 10. European collaborative defence equipment procurement: actual level vs. hypothetical 35% of total defence spending level € 14.000 Mln 12.681 12.004
€ 12.000 Mln
10.823
10.698 9.940
€ 10.000 Mln 9.064 € 8.000 Mln
7.286
-4.549 Mln
7.338 6.070
€ 6.000 Mln
Hypothetical 35% of total equipment procurement level Actual level
5.141
5.313
6.274
€ 4.000 Mln
€ 2.000 Mln 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
11
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
Figure 11. European collaborative defence R&T expenditure: actual level vs. hypothetical 20% of total defence R&T spending level
(Dashed lines represent estimates)
€ 600 Mln 497 € 500 Mln 425
412
420
€ 400 Mln
349 316
341
€ 300 Mln
-173 Mln € 200 Mln 158 140
€ 100 Mln
153 143 Hypothetical 20% of total defence R&T level Actual level
€ 0 Mln 2005
12
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
5. DEFENCE PERSONNEL Since 2006, defence personnel numbers have been steadily declining, mainly due to internal restructuring processes. From 2006 to 2016, the total defence personnel shrank by over 500 thousand or 23,1%, where civilian personnel decreased by over 112 thousand (23,2%), and military – by 423 thousand (23,1%) (Figure 12). During the same period, defence investment (equipment procurement and R&D) per military was around €25 thousand, on average. Figure 12. Total military and civilian personnel (Thousands)
1 834 Military personnel 1 411
484 Civilian personnel
372
2006 2016 0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
As total military personnel decreased, so did the numbers in each military personnel breakdown category. During 2006-2016, the Army reduced by over 209 thousand or 22,5% to 719 thousand, Maritime – by almost 37 thousand or 16,2% to 190 thousand, Air Force – by 79 thousand or 23,4% to 258 thousand, and military personnel not assigned to any of the above categories and referred to as “Other” – by almost 126 thousand or 36,9% to 215 thousand. In relative terms, the shares of military personnel categories remained to a greater or lesser extent stable, with the Army accounting for 52%, Air Force – for 18%, Maritime – for 13%, and Other – for 17% of the total military personnel, on average (Figure 13). Figure 13. Military personnel breakdown (%)
50,7% Army 52,0%
18,4% Air Force 18,7%
18,6% Other 15,5%
12,4% 2006
Maritime 13,8%
2016 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
13
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
6. DEPLOYABILITY From 2006 to 2016, the average number of troops deployed decreased by more than half – 49 thousand or 58% (Figure 14), mainly due to the disbanded ISAF security mission at the end of 2014 and following the withdrawal of participating Member States’ troops from Afghanistan. In relative terms, the share of deployed troops in total military personnel dropped from 4,6% to 2,5%. The total number of deployable (land) and sustainable (land) forces has also decreased during the period. In 2016, the 27 EDA MS had in total 405 thousand deployable (land) forces – almost 29 thousand or 6,6% less than what they had in 2006. The total number of sustainable (land) forces was 94 thousand in 2016, representing an 8% decrease, compared to 2006 (Figure 15). The ratio between sustainable (land) and deployable (land) forces remained virtually stable at around 1:4. Figure 14. Deployable, sustainable and deployed forces (thousand)
434 Total deployable (land) forces 405
102 Total sustainable (land) forces 94
84 Average number of deployed troops 35
2006 2016
0
14
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
DEFENCE DATA 2016-2017 / KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
7. COLLECTIVE BENCHMARKS 3. S ince 2012, Collective Benchmark results on the European collaboration in both equipment procurement and R&T are partial, as several MS are not able to provide the requested data. Since 2015, the results of the benchmark related to defence R&T are based on estimated R&T figures due to inability of some MS to provide accurate figures.
It is no longer possible to measure progress against two of the four Collective Benchmarks, 3 as several MS are no longer in a position to provide the requested data. Nevertherless, as partial data suggest, in 2016, European collaboration slightly increased in equipment procurement (from 18,7% to 20,3%), but remained at the same level in R&T (9,0%) among those countries that reported data. The proportion of investment (equipment procurement and R&D) in total defence expenditure has been increasing since 2014, and in 2017, it is estimated to have reached and even slightly exceeded the 20% benchmark. Defence R&T as a percentage of total defence spending has been steadily decreasing since 2006. Since 2015, defence R&T figures are estimated due to an inherent limitation of several national accounting systems to generate precise R&T figures. Based on the estimated data, in 2016, the share of total defence spending dedicated to R&T was the lowest since 2006, at 0,77%. In 2017, it is estimated to have slightly increased to 0,80%. The bullet graph below (Figure 15) presents the current situation plotting the actual (2017e) defence spending levels against the four Collective Benchmarks. The grey scale is used to introduce a qualitative – and arbitrary – dimension suggesting what could be considered as low, mid, and high level of expenditure relative to the specific benchmark. Figure 15. Collective benchmark results 2017e Benchmark 1: Investment – 20% of total defence spending 20,6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Benchmark 2: Collaborative equipment procurement – 35% of total equipment procurement
16,8% 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
5,0%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Benchmark 3: Defence R&T – 2% of total defence spending
0,8% 0,0% Low
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
Benchmark 4: Collaborative R&T – 20% of total defence R&T
Mid High
9,0%
Actual Target
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
15
QU-AB-18-001-EN-C
European Defence Agency Rue des Drapiers 17-23 B-1050 Brussels - Belgium www.eda.europa.eu Tel +32 2 504 28 00 Fax +32 2 504 28 15 info@eda.europa.eu
ISBN 978-92-95075-42-9