Residential Market Trend Update ± March 31, 2010 (2010 Q1)
Downtown Development Authority District and Adjacent Areas of Influence
Prepared for:
Published May 2010
A Professional Strategic Alliance
Lewis M. Goodkin, CRE,FRICS,MIRM Lewis.goodkin@goodkin.com 305.860.0771
Craig A. Werley, CRE, FRICS cwerley@focusadvisors.net 305.441-6438
T A B L E O F C O N T E N TS I.
R ESI D E N T I A L M A R K E T T R E N D UPD A T E ....................................................................................................... 1 RESIDENTIAL SALES UPDATE ............................................................................................................................. 1 RESIDENTIAL PRICE TREND UPDATE ................................................................................................................ 2 RESIDENTIAL LEASING VELOCITY AND RENTAL RATE TRENDS ............................................................... 3 RESIDENTIAL FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY........................................................................................................... 5
L IST O F E X H I B I TS EXHIBIT I.1 RESIDENTIAL SALES (CLOSINGS) TREND-UPDATE ................................................................ 1 EXHIBIT I.2 RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TREND-UPDATE ........................................................................... 2 EXHIBIT I.3 RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE PER SQ.FT. TREND-UPDATE ...................................................... 2 EXHIBIT I.4 RESIDENTIAL SALES PROFILE BY MONTH AND SUB-MARKET ........................................... 3 EXHIBIT I.5 DOWNTOWN AREA RESIDENTIAL LEASING VELOCITY ........................................................ 4 EXHIBIT I.6 DOWNTOWN AREA RENTAL RATES ........................................................................................... 4 EXHIBIT I.7 FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY ± DOWNTOWN AREA, APRIL ± DECEMBER, 2009 ..................... 5
Miami DDA- Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
ST U D Y A R E A
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
I.
R ESI D E N T I A L M A R K E T T R E N D UPD AT E
This report presents a statistical update of key residential market trends in the downtown area. This report includes data that covers trends through March 31, 2010 including: Monthly Residential Sales Activity (Closings) Price Trends Residential Leasing Velocity Foreclosure Activity The information presented in the following exhibits is based on direct research of public records maintained by the Miami-Dade County Appraiser and County Clerk along with MLS and other independent data services. Research using the above noted sources was supplemented, as deemed necessary, by direct field reconnaissance. R ESI D E N T I A L SA L ES UPD A T E
Average monthly residential sales in the Miami Downtown Area in the 1st quarter of 2010 were 318 units, down slightly from the 4th quarter 2009, but up nearly 140% over the same period in 2009. Monthly sales for all downtown area housing fluctuated during the past six months, dropping back in January and February from the December 2009 high of 486 units then climbing back to 439 sales in March 2010. December and March sales volume was influenced by bulk sales activity as well as by the first-time home-buyer tax credit program. The expiration of the first-time home-buyer tax credit could result in lower monthly sales volume during the next several months.
Residential Sales Update -‐ Miami Downtown Area March 2009 through March 2010 500
486
450
439
Closed Sales (Units)
400 350
339
300
250
248
200
234
262 254
203
150 100
279 268
147 144
171
50 0
Source: Miami-‐Dade Public Records; MLxchange; Realist; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.1 R ESI D E N T I A L SA L ES (C L OSI N GS) T R E N D-UPD A T E
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
1
R ESI D E N T I A L PR I C E T R E N D UPD A T E
The average unit sales price in the 1st quarter of 2010 was up on a year-over-year basis by about 17%.
Average Sales Price Trend Downtown Miami Study Area $400,000
Average Unit Sales Price
$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0
Source: Miami-‐Dade Public Records; MLxchange; Realist; IMAPP; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.2 R ESI D E N T I A L SA L ES PR I C E T R E N D-UPD A T E
Average Sales Price Per Square Foot Downtown Miami Study Area $350 $300
Price /SqFt
$250
$300 $272
$255
$272 $243 $236
$256
$279 $271
$287
$297
$297 $278
$200 $150 $100 $50 $0
Source: Miami-‐Dade Public Records; MLxchange; Realist; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.3 R ESI D E N T I A L SA L ES PR I C E P E R SQ. F T. T R E N D-UPD A T E
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
2
Downtown Study Area Residential Sales Update and Profile, Mar 2009 -‐ Mar 2010 Monthly Sales Profile Units Sold
Sep-‐08 Oct-‐08 Nov-‐08 Dec-‐08 Jan-‐09 Feb-‐09 Mar-‐09 Apr-‐09 May-‐09 Jun-‐09 Jul-‐09 Aug-‐09 Sep-‐09 Oct-‐09 Nov-‐09 Dec-‐09 Jan-‐10 Feb-‐10 Mar-‐10
Total Sales Volume ($)
Total Sq.Ft.
Average Unit Price
$/SqFT
97
$43,061,921
124,714
$443,937
$295
119
$36,085,582
143,394
$303,240
$263
96
$29,017,302
105,680
$302,264
$276
140
$46,338,843
158,860
$330,992
$275
100
$27,836,605
112,268
$278,366
$239
154
$44,156,204
166,052
$286,729
$259
147
$46,953,512
161,176
$319,412
$272
144
$48,995,843
177,443
$340,249
$255
171
$54,897,916
203,936
$331,139
$272
203
$58,972,233
228,911
$290,504
$243
248
$63,460,150
271,825
$255,888
$236
279
$83,465,733
312,142
$299,160
$256
268
$83,532,567
299,516
$311,689
$279
339
$98,294,072
362,471
$289,953
$271
234
$79,260,145
263,779
$338,719
$300
486
$152,556,872
530,811
$313,903
$287
262
$87,872,433
296,122
$335,391
$297
254
$81,364,900
292,165
$320,334
$278
439
$166,042,566
559,600
$378,229
$297
Total Sq.Ft.
Average Unit Price
Breakdown by Area -‐ March 2010 Brickell CBD Park West M&E/Wynwood Total March 2010
Units Sold
Total Sales Volume ($)
215
$87,898,399
261,312
$408,830
$336
157
$35,630,967
160,138
$226,949
$223
39
$27,116,500
77,875
$695,295
$348
28
$15,396,700
60,275
$549,882
$255
439
$166,042,566
559,600
$378,229
$297
$/SqFT
Source: Miami-‐Dade Public Record; Mlxchange; Realist; IMAPP; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.4 R ESI D E N T I A L SA L ES PR O F I L E B Y M O N T H A N D SU B-M A R K E T
Average per square foot prices were up on a year-over-year basis in the 1st quarter of 2010 to just over $291. The average sales price per square foot in the 1st quarter of 2010 was up about 13% from the same period a year ago. R ESI D E N T I A L L E ASI N G V E L O C I T Y A N D R E N T A L R A T E T R E N DS
Average monthly residential leasing velocity in the downtown area during the past twelve months remained steady, averaging 337 units per month. Monthly leasing activity in the downtown area, including all existing and new housing, during the first 3-months of 2010 was up slightly, averaging 341 lease closings per month.
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
3
Sales and Leasing Activty Downtown Miami Area March 2009 through March 2010 900
Leases 800
336
Sales
364
700
Units Absorbed
600 387
500 400
380
375
342
365 329
322
486 439
290 339
300 279
248
200 100
332
318
365
147
144
171
268
262
234
203
254
0
Source: MLxchange; Realist; G oodkin-‐Focus Strategic Alliance.
E X H I B I T I.5 D O W N T O W N A R E A R ESI D E N T I A L L E ASI N G V E L O C I T Y
Average Residential Rental Rate Trends Downtown Study Area, March 2009 -‐ March 2010 Monthly Rate
$2,000
Avg Rent Per Sq.Ft.
$2.00
$1,800
$1.80
$1,600
$1.60 $1.50
$1,400
$1.40
Rent per Sq.Ft.
$1.70
$1.30 $1,739
$1,797
$1,765
$1,724
$1,742
$1,728
$1,834
$1,776
$1,608
$1,748
$1,786
$1,000
$1.20 $1,830
$1,200 $1,735
Average Monthly Rental Rate
$1.90
$1.10 $1.00
Source: MLxchange; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.6 D O W N T O W N A R E A R E N T A L R A T ES
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
4
R ESI D E N T I A L L E ASI N G V E L O C I T Y A N D R E N T A L R A T E T R E N DS (Continued)
Average monthly rental rates and per square foot rates for units are illustrated in Exhibit I.6 on the previous page. The average monthly rental rate for units rented during the past twelve months was $1,756. As shown, the average monthly rental rate increased moderately in the 1st quarter of 2010 to about $1,767 with a corresponding rate per square foot of living area of about $1.64 per square foot. R ESI D E N T I A L F O R E C L OSU R E A C T I V I T Y
Residential foreclosure activity by stage of process (pre-foreclosure vs. auction sales) is shown below based on research of public records and associated residential data services. Preforeclosure activity in the downtown area was generally declining from June 2009 through February of 2010, but spiked in March of 2010. Foreclosure sales (auction sales) activity averaged 67-sales per month during the last 12-months, increasing moderately through 2009. However, the number of foreclosure auction sales also spiked in March to 119, boosting average monthly auction sales in the 1st quarter of this year to over 80 sales per month. The spike in March pre-foreclosure activity is believed to be attributable to continuing high unemployment and µZDON-DZD\V¶ RZQHUV ZKR FKRRVH WR GHIDXOW DQG DOORZ IRUHFORVXUH ZKHQ their mortgage balances exceed the property value). The up-tick in foreclosure sales (auction) activity may be attributDEOH WR WKH &RXQW\¶V QHZ RQOLQH DXFWLRQ V\VWHP. Overall foreclosure activity in the downtown area relative to total occupied housing units remains in line with City of Miami and Miami-Dade County trends.
Foreclosure Activity by Stage of Process Miami Downtown Study Area 300
PreForeclosure Filings
Auction 243
Foreclosure Recordings
250 202
200 167
166 149
150 142
130
100 55
50
164
51
61
74 57
61
145
148
141 120
80
70 52
57
119
66
0
Source: Miami-‐Dade Public Records; MLxchange; Realist; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
E X H I B I T I.7 F O R E C L OSU R E A C T I V I T Y ± D O W N T O W N A R E A , A PR I L ± D E C E M B E R, 2009
Miami DDA-Residential Market Trends Update (2010 Q1)
5