evolution : knowing : listening : understanding grocery shoppers
SHOPPER TREND REPORT
SHOPPER INSIGHTS | REPORTS | CONSULTANCY | STRATEGY Issue 36 | September 2015
Supermarket sales volumes fall Morrisons faces multimillionpound bill to offload struggling local stores Channel Series 2015 – Bulk Discounters Evolution Report Catalogue 2015 Behavioural and Real Time research The Co-op launches local supplier initiative in Yorkshire Tesco to bring back vinyl
EVOLUTION REPORT
COMING SOON The On-The-Go Shopper Missions Series: 2015 The on-the-go mission is defined as food/and or drinks purchased and consumed outside of the home, on the same day, this includes quick service restaurants. This series will cover three key missions: Breakfast, Lunch and Snacking On-The-Go, drawing comparisons from 5 years of previous research in this area.
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This report will help you understand: Mission Penetration, Number of Visits and Store Repertoire • The penetration of the On-The-Go missions by gender, age and SEG. The average number of On-The-Go missions are carried out each week and how many stores shoppers visit regularly (overall and by mission). Choice – Channel/Retailer • Which channels shoppers regularly visit to buy food/drinks for their Breakfast, Lunch and Snacking On-The-Go missions, channels covered include: Sandwich Shops/Bakeries, Convenience Stores, Fast Food Restaurants, Supermarkets, Coffee Shops, High Street Retailers and Discounters. Retailer share by mission and how this compares to previous years. Choice - Category • Categories shoppers bought on their last On-The-Go mission(s) and how this compares to previous years. The proportion of shoppers that purchased food only, drinks only, food and drinks, or food and drinks as part of a meal deal. The proportion of shoppers that subsidise one or more of their On-The-Go meal occasions with items brought from home, and which items shoppers are most likely to bring. Drivers & Spend • The importance of Health, Price, Taste, Quality and To Fill Me Up by mission and demographic. The average spend by mission and how this compares to the past 5 years. Circumstances • What encouraged shoppers to make their last On-The-Go purchase by mission.
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Full subscribers have the opportunity to input into this… Deadline 15/09/15 t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
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| Issue 36 | September 2015
GREETINGS Michael Symonds
In this month’s issue...
Research Manager
Welcome to Issue 36 of our Shopper Trend Report According to the latest industry figures, sales volumes at supermarkets fell year-on-year for the first time since December 2014. The disappointing growth figures reflect the continuing unpredictable summer weather as well as the underlying deflation in retail prices. The week ending 25 July suffered from particularly poor weather with the value of sales down -3.6% against the same period last year, which was notably warmer and included the start of the Commonwealth Games.
Morrisons could face a multi-million pound bill if the retailer tries to offload its M local convenience stores (c-stores), according to recent media reports. They have had to contend with poorly acquired and inferior sites, which led the retailer to ditch the worst 23 outlets, cutting 300 jobs, five months ago… Another bad decision by Dalton!! Tesco have revealed that they are to sell vinyl which seems a strange decision. Not because they are bringing back vinyl, but I really can’t see Pete Tong in there buying the latest tunes!!
Michael Symonds
WHAT’S NEW: Evolution’s new website – Evolution Shopper
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FOOD & GROCERY NEWS Supermarket sales volumes fall Morrisons faces multimillion-pound bill to offload struggling local stores
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EVOLUTION REPORT: Channel Series 2015 – Bulk Discounters
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PRIMARY RESEARCH: Channel Series 2015 – Bulk Discounters
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EVOLUTION REPORT CATALOGUE 2015
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INNOVATION IN RESEARCH: Behavioural and Real Time research
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FOOD & GROCERY NEWS The Co-op launches local supplier initiative in Yorkshire Tesco to bring back vinyl
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WHAT’S NEW: Evolution Consumer
Please note
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written consent of Evolution Insights Ltd. © Evolution Insights Ltd 2015
Issue 36 | September 2015 |
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NEW WEBSITE
WHAT’S NEW
Evolution Insights has just launched a brand new re-vamped website. We are more than just a research agency, we bring consumers and insight to life through a range of innovative research methodologies…
The site will show you… • Our innovative methodologies • A comprehensive lists of our reports • Our consulting credentials • The brands we work with • Client testimonials • The latest shopper news & comment • How you can receive free research
Go on, take a look, we would love to hear your feedback… evolution-insights.com 03
For all your shopper enquiries call us on 0113 394 4670 email on info@evolution-insights.com | Issue 36 | September 2015
‘BIG FOUR’
FOOD & GROCERY NEWS
Supermarket sales volumes fall According to the latest industry figures, sales volumes at supermarkets fell year-onyear for the first time since December 2014. In the four weeks to 15 August 2015, sales volumes fell 0.3% on the previous year, driven by declines in soft drinks, frozen foods and general merchandise. The value of sales at the tills fell 1.1% – the fourth decline in the last five periods. In the 12 weeks ending 15 August, the data showed that all of the ‘big four’ supermarkets lost market share, ending Morrisons’ run of three consecutive periods of sales growth. Asda saw the largest decline in year-on-year sales (-3.4%), with Sainsbury’s seeing a 0.5% fall. Discounters Aldi (22.6%) and Lidl (14.8%) continued to have the largest rise in yearon-year sales, together accounting for 10.4% of all UK supermarket sales. Source: Talking Retail
Morrisons faces multimillion-pound bill to offload struggling local stores Morrisons is facing a bill worth tens of millions of pounds to offload its struggling convenience store business. Britain’s fourth largest food retailer is in talks to sell its 150 M Local stores to the investment firm Greybull Capital. However, it is understood that Morrisons will be lumbered with a liability of as much as £100m from any sale because there is a parent company guarantee on the rental agreement for the stores. This guarantee means that Morrisons will remain on the hook for the leases on the stores even after selling them. If the new owner closes stores, the supermarket group will have to pay the outstanding rent. Morrisons will have to recognise the liability by booking a write-down in its accounts. This write-down is likely to be worth tens of millions of pounds, which is lower than the £100m liability estimated by industry sources because the structure of the sale should partly offset the damage to the retailer. Source: The Guardian Issue 36 | September 2015 |
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EVOLUTION REPORT
RECENTLY RELEASED Channel Series 2015 – Bulk Discounters In this series of reports we look in detail at six different channels within the UK Food & Grocery market. This report looks in detail at the Bulk Discounter channel as a whole, then in more detail at Amazon, Costco, Makro & Ethnic Superstores. This penultimate instalment of our in-depth channel series covers a multitude of themes in this area.
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This report will tell you: Who shops at Bulk Discounters, how often they visit and on which days of the week. Which retailer shoppers visit primarily; and the other retailers in their store repertoire
How shopper perceptions of Bulk Discounters compare to the other channels in terms of Price and Quality. This report also explores whether Bulk Discounter shoppers plan to shop at this channel more/the same/less in the future How shoppers choose their primary store and which characteristics are important to each demographic/typology including: Location, Price, Quality, Value, Range and Parking. How the different retailers are perceived in terms of Price, Quality, Value and Range (by those who shop there and those who don’t) Where shoppers would prefer to shop if the barrier of Price was removed, how loyal are shoppers to their primary store? Shopper’s attitudes to shopping for Food & Groceries online at Amazon, and how interested they would be in an Amazon same day delivery service (Food & Grocery) Which categories shoppers wouldn’t buy from a Bulk Discounter and why Individual retailer profiles including: shopper share, primary store by demographics, drivers to that retailer, how likely are the different demographics/typologies to visit that retailer (indexed against the channel) and preferred retailer
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For further information contact… t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
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| Issue 36 | September 2015
EVOLUTION REPORT
REPORT SNIPPETS Channel Series 2015 – Bulk Discounters
QUALITY
Bulk Discounters are ranked 5th out of 6 in reference to Quality
Drivers in order of importance
DRIVERS
SPEND
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
48%
Define their primary (Bulk Discounter) store as where they spend the most money
SHOPPER SHARE Costco & Amazon make up 84% of the primary shopper share in this channel
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EVOLUTION SUBSCRIPTION
REPORT CATALOGUE 2015 Health & Product Information
Explores shoppers’ attitudes to health and healthy eating, nutrition labels and how healthy shoppers are in their own opinion. We will also provide an overview of the drivers associated with buying healthy products
Published January 2015
Loyalty Cards & Price Matching
This is a new report that will look into the main retailers offering of loyalty cards in terms of what they offer and how they work, who used them and if they are redeemed. Brand match is a concept that has been taken up by most of the large retailers, so we will look at how individual retailers define their brand match, what they offer in return, and what shoppers think of it.
Published January 2015
In-store Decision Making 2015
The Decision Making 2015 report will provide a detailed look into the Shopper Decision Hierarchy, i.e. how shoppers make decisions when confronted with a number of products in-store. We will describe the types of planning that Shoppers will do prior to the shop, and how each of them will influence their decision making in-store – from being faced with a category selection, all the way down to the selection of a single product. Of course, the order of the hierarchy is not the same for every shopper in each category, but we have ascertained the most typical SDH in 11 different categories (Inc. Cereal, Crisps and yogurts).
Published March 2015
Planning 2015- The use of lists and pre shop knowledge
In our Planning 2015 report we will explore the extent that shoppers pre-plan before entering the store. We examine what characteristics shoppers know about the items they plan to buy and if those who use a shopping list will know more or less characteristics about the item they plan to buy than shoppers who don’t use a list. We will also give insight into how likely a shopper is to pick up an unplanned product on impulse from different locations in store.
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| Issue 36 | September 2015
Published March 2015
EVOLUTION SUBSCRIPTION
REPORT CATALOGUE 2015 Channel Series (7 Individual Reports)
These reports will give a holistic view on where shoppers go, how frequently and most importantly why they choose the different channels to fulfil their shopping needs. This collection will be comprised of the seven following reports:
Supermarket Discount Supermarket Convenience High Street Discounters Bulk Discounters Click & Collect Online
Phased between June – Nov 2015
Published June 2015 Published June 2015 Published June 2015 Published July 2015 Published August 2015
Shopper Missions (6 Individual Report)
These reports takes an in-depth look at Shopper Missions and examines shoppers’ behaviour across all missions in relation to frequency, patterns, channel, planning, spend and more. The Mission reports are made up of four separate reports, of which one will be split into three occasions:
Not Published Phased between Aug – Oct 2015
Main shop Top-up Meal for Tonight Breakfast On the go Lunch On the go Snacking On the go
The Use of Digital Devices for Food & Grocery Shopping
The Digital Shopping report looks at how these technologies are being adopted by shoppers. Specifically, we will look at technology penetration and usage, apps, contactless payment and social media – all in relation to the Food & Grocery sector.
Not Published Due Nov 2015
Issue 36 | September 2015 |
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INNOVATION IN RESEARCH Behavioural and Real Time research ShopperTrack monitors shopper’s digital and location based activities, whilst allocating additional research tasks based upon these factors in real time. In today’s modern world, where everyone lives their lives through their mobile devices, wouldn’t it be great to find out exactly what they are doing with them? Well now you can, with ShopperTrack.
For further information contact… 09
| Issue 36 | September 2015
ShopperTrack is a pioneering app that passively tracks everything people do on their mobile device, making it possible to observe real behaviour in a non-staged environment. ShopperTrack sits quietly in the background, monitoring the user’s app usage and online behaviour, requiring no input time from the user other than downloading the app.
Michael Symonds t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
FOOD & GROCERY NEWS
The Co-op launches local supplier initiative in Yorkshire The Co-operative Food has launched a local supplier initiative in Yorkshire which will see the retailer stock 130 new products made across the county. The retailer has signed up more than 50 local manufacturers and micro producers to provide stores with locally produced items such as eggs, baked goods, ice cream, sweets, chutneys, pies, sausages and beer. If the pilot scheme is successful, it will be rolled out to other parts of the country within the next 12 months. Kate Jones, head of local sourcing, said: “Our customers have told us they want to buy local products at their Co-op store and so we have responded by teaming up with more than 50 new Yorkshire suppliers. "Products made in the vicinity of our stores are prized by customers who want to support locally produced regional food which often helps to define a specific area such as Yorkshire.” Source: The Retail Bulletin
Tesco to bring back vinyl Tesco will become the first UK supermarket to tap into the rapidly growing vinyl music market when it stocks the triple-vinyl format of Iron Maiden’s latest album which will be released on Friday 4 September. Maiden’s first studio offering in five years, ‘The Book Of Souls’, will go on sale in 55 Tesco Extra stores, whilst the CD format will be sold in 850 of Tesco’s UK stores and online at Tesco Direct. Tesco’s move comes at a time when vinyl album revival has gained recent momentum, with sales up by more than 50% in 2014. Meanwhile other music formats have seen a downward sales trend with sales of CDs falling by 6.5% last year and downloads declining by nearly 9%. Tesco’s Music Buyer, Michael Mulligan, said: “In the last year we began selling record decks in our largest stores and initial sales are very encouraging so giving our customers some new vinyl to play on those decks seems like the logical next step.” Source: Retail Gazette
Issue 36 | September 2015 |
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CONSUMER
WHAT’S NEW www.evolutionconsumer.com We are more than just a research agency, we bring consumers and insight to life through a range of innovative research methodologies‌
Packaging testing
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In-home filming
Online communities
V-logs
Remote eye tracking
Bulletin board focus groups
For all your consumer enquiries call us on 0113 394 4670 email on info@evolutionconsumer.com | Issue 36 | September 2015
SEE HOW WE CAN HELP
CONTACT US We are specialists in understanding supermarket shoppers Evolution Insights delivers off-the-shelf, tailored and bespoke research for manufacturers, retailers and agencies. Our research and analysis helps clients develop targeted shopper marketing initiatives designed to influence shoppers at the point of purchase. As a leading publisher of shopper research, we are ideally placed to offer your business actionable shopper insight.
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