REPORT
SHOPPER TREND
SHOPPER INSIGHTS | REPORTS | CONSULTANCY | STRATEGY | ISSUE 40 | JANUARY 2016
evolution : knowing : listening : understanding grocery shoppers
In this month’s issue
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Evolution report catalogue 2016 Lunch On-The-Go Mission Penetration Reasons shoppers think High Street Discounters are cheaper Penetration of shoppers who own a Smartphone Proportion of Missions Carried Out at Each Channel The use of shopping lists Retailer Shopper Share of Most Recent Snacking On-The-Go Visit
report catalogue EVOLUTION SUBSCRIPTION
Evolution report catalogue 2016 One-off reports
► Lunchbox Habits (Adults & Children) ► Health and Product Information ► Discounters: Impact on Brands ► Loyalty, Price & Promotion (Brand Loyalty: The Shopper Perspective) ► The Use of Smartphones & Digital Devices for Grocery Shopping ► The Grocery Shopper and Social Media ► Brand Loyalty: The Shopper Perspective ► Online Grocery Shopping (Click & Collect, Delivery) ► Shopper Typologies
On-the-Go Series
► Breakfast On-the-Go ► Lunch On-the-Go ► Snacking On-the-Go ► Coffee Shops in the On-the-Go Market (Costa, Starbucks, Greggs)
Retailer Mini Series (Shopper profiles) ► Tesco ► Asda ► Sainsbury’s ► Morrisons ► The Co-operative ► Waitrose ► Marks & Spencer’s ► Discounters ► Aldi ► Lidl ► Amazon
For further information contact…
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| Issue 40 | January 2016
t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
Hello and welcome
to Issue 40 of our Shopper Trend Report. It’s been another eventful year in the Food and Grocery sector.
In this month’s issue...
If 2014 was the year Tesco’s secrets spilled out soap opera style, 2015 was when CEO Dave Lewis faced the music. Announcing Tesco’s full-year results in April, he revealed the full horror of the catastrophic collapse in Tesco’s fortunes - in the shape of a £7bn write-down.
Evolution Report Catalogue 2016
2015 was the year that Amazon added Pantry to it’s UK grocery offering. It’s nothing revolutionary, just a simple way to order ambient groceries in bulk, but the development built anticipation to a frenzy… and took millions off Ocado’s share price!
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The big grocers are now watching with trepidation for Amazon’s next move.
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INSIGHT: Lunch On-The-Go Mission Penetration
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INSIGHT: Shoppers Missions carried out at each channel
INSIGHT: Reasons Shoppers Think High Street Discounters are Cheaper than Other Channels
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INSIGHT: Penetration of Shoppers who own a Smartphone _________________________________________ INSIGHT: Proportion of Missions Carried Out at Each Channel
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INSIGHT: The Use of Shopping Lists
Michael Symonds Research Manager
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INSIGHT: Retailer Shopper Share of Most Recent Snacking On-The-Go Visit
Please note No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written consent of Evolution Insights Ltd. © Evolution Insights Ltd 2015
Issue Issue37 40||October January2015 2016||
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Lunch On-The-Go Mission Penetration
On-the-go shopper missions are defined as the food and drink items purchased for that meal occasion, rather than products synonymous with the meal occasion. Therefore it is possible for a shopper to buy a traditional lunch time sandwich to be eaten for breakfast, a soft drink and crisps for lunch, and a breakfast bar as a snack. The short definitions above are the controlling factor. All missions must include a food item.
The last time 16-64s purchased Lunch On-The-Go‌ 49% in the past week
21% in the past 2 weeks 21% in the past month
4% longer than a month ago
This is an extract from our UK Breakfast On-The-Go 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
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5% longer than 3 months ago
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Reasons Shoppers Think High Street Discounters are Cheaper than Other Channels 54% think they are cheaper because they stock discontinued products
29% think they are cheaper because they make less profit
49% think they are cheaper because they stock foreign versions of well known brands
20% think they are cheaper because they stock out of date products
44% think they are cheaper because they sell products close to their sellby date
7% think they are cheaper because they sell damaged goods
32% think they are cheaper because they sell smaller pack sizes Large Supermarket
Channel Series In this series of reports we look in detail at six different channels within the UK Food & Grocery market. This report looks in detail at the High Street Discounter channel as a whole, then in more detail at Poundland, Home Bargains, Wilko, B&M, Poundworld, 99p Stores, Pound-Stretcher.
Bulk Discounter
Convenience Store
High Street Discounter
Online (Delivery & Click & Collect)
Results from the largest survey of its kind n=5000 Household Primary Shoppers.
Discount Supermarket
This is an extract from our How the UK Shops – High Street Discounters 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
Issue 40 | January 2016 |
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Penetration of shoppers who own a smartphone X
Smartphone Ownership, 2015
Penetration of shoppers who own a smartphone Smartphones may have hit its saturation point as we see no increase in penetration from 2014. High rates of growth are likely a thing of the past, with current changes to smartphones being superficial rather than game-changing. Smartphones are already mainstream. The chances are that manufacturers will start to shift their focus on to other technologies, such as wearable tech, smart TV’s and 4K products.
47% 37% 2010 2011
60%
67%
2012
2013
81%
82%
2014
2015
This is an extract from our Smartphones & Digital Devices 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
05 | Issue 40 | January 2016
recently released
Digital: The use of smartphones and digital devices for grocery shopping 2015 The digital landscape is growing at an exceptional rate, with new technologies being introduced into our daily lives on a regular basis. Digital media allows the user to turn into shopper mode on a greater number of occasions, at more remote locations - the shopper no longer has to be in-store, or sat at their home PC, to interact with a retailer or brand. The Digital Shopping report looks at how these technologies are being adopted by shoppers. Specifically, we will look at: Online grocery shopping (primarily on a smartphone): Who does it, when, why and how; Who doesn’t do it and why; What devices are used and how. Apps: Which retailer apps shoppers have and how often they use them Contactless payment: Awareness; Bank cards and mobile Wallets; Ownership and use; Drivers & barriers; Occasions of use Social media: How shoppers interact with retailers and brands on various social media platforms Smartphones: Awareness and usage of using smartphones for various grocery shopping related activities e.g. creating lists, scanning items and ‘checking out’
For further information contact… t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com Issue 40 | January 2016 |
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recently released
Shopper Missions 2015 The Shopper Missions report looks into the Main Shop and Top-Up Shop missions conducted in the UK Food & Grocery market. In this report we look in-depth into Main Shop and Top-Up Shop Missions, and how this differs across channels. In order to give insights into the different ways shoppers choose to carry out each mission we look into the differences between the channel choice, retailer choice and spend at each mission. We will also provide insights into the channels shoppers chose as the most suitable for a Main Shop, Top-Up Shop and Special Occasion Shop.
This report will cover the following subjects:
Main Shop & Top-Up Shop definitions Main Shops done at each Channel Top-Up Shops done at each Channel Store type preference for a Main Shop and Top-Up Shop Retailer preference for a Main Shop and Top-Up Shop, by Channel Proportion of Main Shops and Top-Up Shops at each Channel Mission spend at each Channel Frequency of Missions
For further information contact… t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
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| Issue 40 | January 2016
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Proportion of Missions Carried Out at Each Channel In general terms, a Mission is the original reason that a shopper embarked on a shopping trip. There are many different types of Missions that a shopper can carry out. This diagram (right) shows where Missions appears in Evolution’s Path to Purchase Model. The proportion of Main and Top-up Missions that are carried out at each channel, per month.
42% 58% 100%
100%
28%
72%
Main Shop Top-Up Shop
8%
92%
This is an extract from our Shopper Missions 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
100%
Issue 40 | January 2016|
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evolution report
Planning 2015 - The use of lists and pre shop knowledge In our Planning 2015 report we will explore the extent that shoppers pre-plan before entering the store. We examine what characteristics shoppers know about the items they plan to buy and if those who use a shopping list will know more or less characteristics about the item they plan to buy than shoppers who don’t use a list. We will also give insight into how likely a shopper is to pick up an unplanned product on impulse from different locations in store. This report will help you understand: ► The use of shopping lists, by mission ► Age differences in the type of shopping list used ► Why shoppers do not use a shopping list ► How much information shoppers know about the items they plan to buy before entering the store
► How likely shoppers are to pick up an item on impulse, by mission
For further information contact…
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| Issue 40 | January 2016
t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
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Planning and Lists 2015 – The Use of Shopping Lists Shopper Planning The items that are purchased on a shop depends on a number of situations and influences - The shopper mission, how planned the shop (and items) are, and how influential the store is. In this report we focus on Planning, and how this results in final purchases. How purchases are made:
Mission
Planning
See our report ‘Shopper Missions 2015’
There are 2 types of planning for a shopping trip (mission): • The Use of a List • The Level of Detail Known About Each Planned Product.
Store Influence See our report ‘In-Store Decision Making 2015’ • • • • •
The Use of Shopping Lists
64% of shoppers have a list for a Main Shop
Purchases
34% of shoppers have a list for a TopUp Shop
This is an extract from our Planning & Lists 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
One can classify the purchase of each product as being: Planned Planned (with Deviation) Need State Fulfilment Semi-Planned Impulse
39% of shoppers have a list for an Online Shop Issue 40 | January 2016 |
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recently released
The On-The-Go Shopper Missions Series: Snacking On-The-Go 2015 The On-The-Go mission is defined as food/and or drinks purchased and consumed outside of the home, on the same day, this includes quick service restaurants. This series will cover three key missions: Breakfast, Lunch and Snacking On-The-Go, drawing comparisons from 5 years of previous research in this area. This final instalment of the series will focus on the Snacking On-The-Go mission.
This report will help you understand: Mission Penetration, Number of Visits ► The last time consumers purchased a Snack On-The-Go ► The penetration, Profile & Index of the Snacking On-The-Go mission by demographic ► The average number of Snacking On-The-Go missions carried out each week Choice – Channel/Retailer ► Retailer shopper share (last visit) ► Channel share (last visit) ► Channels consumers regularly visit and store repertoire ► Retailer drivers Choice – Category ► Whether Food Only or Food and Drinks were purchased on the last Snacking On-The-Go occasion ► Category choice (last visit) ► Items brought from home to supplement Snacking On-The-Go ► The importance of Health, Price, To Fill Me Up, Quality and Taste when choosing items for Snacking On-The-Go Circumstances ► The circumstances of the last Snacking On-The-Go purchase
For further information contact… t. 0113 394 4670 e. craig.bradley@evolution-insights.com
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| Issue 40 | January 2016
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Retailer Shopper Share of Most Recent Snacking On-The-Go Visit On average in the UK there are over 1.7 billion Snacking OnThe-Go occasions each year. That’s 4.6 million Snacking On-The-Go occasions every day. The UK Snacking On-The-Go market is worth over £5.7 billion.
* 21%
Tesco Express’ retailer shopper share has significantly increased since 2014, a change that has transpired across all of the On-The-Go missions.
(14%)
10%
8%
5%
(11%)
(6%) Independen t Newsagent
(4%)
1%
1%
2% 1% Indepe
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
3%
ndent Cafe
1%
1%
(8%)
5%
3%
Independent Coffee Shop
1%
Independent Sandwich Shop/Bakery
6%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3% NB: Stores with a shopper share of less than 1% not included.
*statistically significant change Y.O.Y
This is an extract from our UK Snacking On-The-Go 2015 report. Please contact us for further information
Issue 40 | January 2016 |
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EVOLUTION SUBSCRIPTION
Contact Us See how we can help We are specialists in understanding supermarket shoppers Evolution Insights delivers off-the-shelf, tailored and bespoke research for manufacturers, retailers and agencies. Our research and analysis helps clients develop targeted shopper marketing initiatives designed to influence shoppers at the point of purchase. As a leading publisher of shopper research, we are ideally placed to offer your business actionable shopper insight.
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