Highlights | SPRING 2012 by EastWest Institute

Highlights

>> In this issue:

President’s Message

> AFFORDABLE WORLD SECURITY CONFERENCE > OBAMA AND IRAN: WHAT WENT WRONG > DEBATING DEMOCRACY AND TERROR > ASSESSING NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT > PAKISTAN 2020

U.S. & CHINESE LEADERS IN DIALOGUE Chinese Minister Wang Jiarui and Joe Straus, Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives

he EastWest Institute’s Strategic Trust-Building Initiative has continued its groundbreaking series of talks among prominent members of the Republican, Democratic, and Chinese Communist political parties. Two sets of talks, the third and fourth such meetings, were held in September and December 2011, respectively. These talks, with delegations traveling to their counterpart country on an alternating basis, provide an off-therecord setting for the discussion of pressing domestic and international policy issues of importance to these two powers. > [PAGE 3]

Find out more about our China work : www.ewi.info/china

Highlights

Developments Latest News from EWI’s Initiatives

President’s Message

elcome to our spring 2012 issue of Highlights, shared with the broad network of EWI alumni, donors, friends and other key members of the EWI family. To serve as change agents in a rapidly changing world, we need to be both trusted by the major players and action-oriented. An example of recent work is our “political backchannel” between Chinese Communist Party leaders and American political elites. Featured in our cover story, the 3rd and 4th U.S.–China HighLevel Political Party Leaders Dialogues brought together leaders from the Republican, Democratic and Chinese Communist parties to discuss a series of key issues, including how decisions are made in times of crisis. Each year we take the CPC leaders to different states—Texas, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois so far. Here they can interact with the “real America” and feel the pulse of the country themselves. The kind of trust this process builds also enables EWI to work at the highest levels in China on cybersecurity, military– military relations and other sensitive issues. You are all welcome at the Affordable World Security Conference in Washington, D.C., hosted by the W.P. Carey Foundation in partnership with EWI on March 28–29, 2012 (visit www.affordableworldsecurity.org for access to both registration and a live video stream of the conference). Rising global economic and political challenges in the developed world require stronger, focused thought leadership. The AWSC features highprofile speakers including Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Óscar Arias Sánchez, head of UN Women Michelle Bachelet, Gen. Michael Hayden and Dr. Vartan Gregorian. Some ask why EWI engages in such large conferences. EWI’s extensive Track 2 and Track 1.5 work, which is the “bread and butter” of what we do, cannot be reported outside of those meetings. Whether we’re dealing with hacking in cyberspace, water resources in Southwest Asia, or delicate issues with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, China or Iran, our EWI staff, directors, fellows and members of the network are deeply engaged in discreet discussions, moving parties toward trust and solutions to specific problems. At the same time, it is important that we take the lessons we learn in all this work and help catapult them into the public policy debate—which is why EWI holds the annual Worldwide Security Conference in Brussels, the annual Worldwide Cybersecurity Summit (coming to New Delhi in October 2012) and occasional high-profile programs like the Affordable World Security Conference. Please be sure to frequent www.ewi.info for the latest EWI commentary and event information; we are deeply grateful for your support and interest in the EastWest Institute.

EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

John Edwin Mroz

Obama and Iran: What Went Wrong Warning that the chances for military action against Iran could be “50-50 for this spring,” Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council, discussed his new book A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran at the EastWest Institute on Feb. 27. Moderated by EWI Vice President and Director for Public Policy Andrew Nagorski, the conversation provided the audience a window into some of the previously unknown details of the Obama administration’s diplomatic outreach to Iran. With access to over 70 high-ranking officials from the United States, Iran, Europe, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil—including the top American and Iranian negotiators—Parsi explored the reasons for the collapse of diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran. Parsi argued that diplomacy was never pursued as far as it should have been, and unreasonably optimistic early expectations may have contributed to the failure of this effort. “Negotiations such as these succeed not because the proposals are flawless or because both sides play fair,” he said, “but because the many flaws associated with the talks are overcome by the political will to reach a solution.” Image: John Berkelay, The Economist www.ewi.info

Debating Democracy and Terror EWI and the World Policy Institute (WPI) hosted the second annual Ian Cuthbertson Memorial Lecture on Dec. 7, 2011. Counterterrorism experts Scott Helfstein and Naureen Fink discussed the positive and negative impacts of democratic transitions on the fight against terrorism. The

lecture was named in honor of distinguished British diplomat and counterterrorism consultant Ian Cuthbertson, who served in senior roles at both EWI and WPI.

Academy at West Point. An advisor to public- and privatesector organizations, he has extensively studied the effects of democratic and autocratic transitions from 1970 to 1990.

Helfstein is director of research for the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military

Naureen Chowdhury Fink is a senior analyst at the Center on Global Counterterrorism

Cooperation. Having worked closely with the U.N. CounterTerrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) on developing its initiatives in South Asia, Fink offered her expertise on Bangladesh as a case study to understand the impact of a democratic political system on counterterrorism.

THIRD AND FOURTH U.S.–CHINA HIGH-LEVEL POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS DIALOGUE

The third and fourth dialogues resulted in a number of notable milestones, including: Unprecedented discussion of the foreign policy decision making process in China

> [CONTINUED] The third set of talks, held in Beijing and Sichuan, China, featured discussions on topics including the Communist Party of China’s (CPC’s) role in China’s ongoing economic, social and political reforms. The U.S. delegates addressed Chinese perceptions of the U.S. political process on issues of great concern to Americans, including debt reduction, economic growth, and U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

On the foreign policy front, delegates compared and contrasted the foreign policy–making processes in China and the United States. They also explored the roles of both countries in addressing regional and global challenges including Pakistan, West Asia and the global economy. www.ewi.info

Both sides agreed on the need to focus on their growing common interests and to foster mutual understanding in an honest and open manner. The fourth series of talks, conducted Dec. 4–10 in Washington, D.C., Texas and Missouri, further deepened relations between the involved parties, shedding more light on political decision making and establishing relationships between the Chinese government and the American business community. Continued dialogue addressed topics such as the Chinese political, social and economic landscape, decision making practices of both governments, and areas of common interest between the United States and China in the AsiaPacific region.

A direct exchange of views on key issues including North Korea, the South China Sea, Syria and Iran The first-ever visit by a Chinese delegation of this level to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the most senior Chinese delegation to visit any Federal Reserve Bank The first direct “party-to-party” interactions between the CPC and a top leader of one of the two major U.S. political parties (Reince Priebus, head of the Republican National Committee) Meetings between CPC officials and members of the U.S. Congress—another first for this dialogue process—resulting in a first-ever invitation for the House U.S.–China Working Group to visit the International Department of the CPC in Beijing EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

Highlights

Developments Preview: Affordable World Security Conference

For those interested in remotely viewing the conference, both day-long sessions will be broadcast online.

Scheduled to appear:

March 27–28, 2012 Washington, D.C.

n October 2010, a joint assessment on international security was conducted by the United States National Intelligence Committee and the European Union’s Security Studies Institute. This assessment made it abundantly clear that the world, growing increasingly connected and interdependent, is facing a plethora of unprecedented security challenges. The assessment noted that “threats such as ethnic conflicts, infectious diseases, and terrorism, as well as a new generation of global challenges including climate change, energy security, food and water scarcity, international migration flows, and new technologies are increasingly taking center stage.” It also maintained that the international institutions the world has traditionally relied upon for global governance are likely “not going to be sufficient to keep pace with the looming number of transnational and global challenges absent extensive institutional reforms and innovations.” In a direct response to this grim forecast, the W.P. Carey Foundation, in partnership with the EastWest Institute,

EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

will host the Affordable World Security Conference at the Newseum in Washington, D.C., on March 27-28, 2012. The conference is the brainchild of Dr. William Polk, a former Harvard professor and a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Council during the Kennedy administration. He is currently senior director of the W.P. Carey Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to “strengthening education as a means to promote economic and social progress and international understanding, security and peace.” The Affordable World Security Conference will bring together about 40 speakers, including leading figures from government, business, civil society, the natural sciences, academia and major international institutions. Participants will assess pressing issues in the areas of economics, environment, humanity, technology and defense. The conference is based on the principle that we cannot resolve the systemic challenges of the 21st century with the strategies and tools of the 20th century.

Joseph Stiglitz Nobel Laureate, Economics

Rajendra Pachauri Nobel Peace Prize Laureate; Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Michael Hayden Former Director, CIA and NSA

Jim Clifton Chairman and CEO, Gallup

Michael Chertoff Former Secretary of Homeland Security

Paula Dobriansky Former UnderSecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs

Dana Priest Pulitzer Prizewinning journalist, Washington Post

Chas Freeman Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs www.ewi.info

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Learn more at: www.affordableworldsecurity.org

Pakistan 2020

Óscar Arias Sánchez Former President of Costa Rica; Nobel Laureate

Michelle Bachelet Executive Director, UN Women; Former President of Chile

Carl Horst Hahn Chairman Emeritus, Volkswagen Group

Vartan Gregorian President, Carnegie Corporation of New York

Jose Fernandez Assistant Secretary of State, Economic and Business Affairs

Sylvia Earle Former. Chief Scientist, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration www.ewi.info

Khalid Malik Director, Human Development Report Office, UNDP

David Martin, National Security Correspondent, CBS News

What will Pakistani politics and security look like in 2020? That was the question posed by a team of experts convened by New York University’s Center for Global Affairs. On Feb. 24, the team, led by Prof. Michael F. Oppenheimer, presented its Pakistan 2020 report at EWI in New York. The report explores three hypothetical future scenarios for the country, each designed to produce policy insights through considering potential futures. The first scenario, “radicalization,” envisions a Pakistan consumed by populist fervor as a result of “perceived military threats, spiraling economic losses and political infighting.” This results in the rise of a democratically elected conservative military officer who pursues a radical Islamic agenda for the country. The second scenario, “fragmentation,” foresees economic instability as crippling the capacity of the state to govern, leading to a federally and regionally unstable Pakistan rife with insecure nuclear materials. The third and most optimistic scenario, “reform,” envisages a growing middle class fostering a centrist, economically oriented

political movement. A political party born out of this movement then serves to displace much of the power currently held by political and military elites. While the third scenario may be the least likely to occur, Oppenheimer said, “it is sufficiently plausible for the U.S. to try to work toward that scenario, in part because the other two … involve significant risks and damage to American interests and American security.” More information is available on www.ewi.info, including links to the full report and a video summary by Oppenheimer.

Assessing Nuclear Disarmament Can the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) detect illicit nuclear testing with a high degree of confidence? This question was the topic of conversation on March 2 when EWI, in partnership with VERTIC, hosted a seminar on the verification capabilities provided for under the Comprehensive NuclearTest-Ban Treaty. Moderated by EWI’s Jacqueline Miller and VERTIC Executive Di-

rector Andreas Persbo, the seminar featured presentations by experts Jenifer Mackby and Edward Ifft on technical advancements that have direct bearing on the CTBT’s verification regime. Mackby, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former senior political affairs officer at the Conference on Disarmament, found the verification mechanisms of the treaty more than adequate for detecting illicit nuclear tests. She noted that “most experts agree the treaty will prevent countries from developing advanced nuclear weapons or improving existing ones, thus impeding a nuclear arms race, curbing nuclear proliferation, and strengthening the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Ifft, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and a former U.S. senior representative to the START and CTBT negotiations, focused his remarks on capabilities and limits of the On-Site Inspection System (OSI) under the CTBT. He maintained that the OSI is a vital part of the verification regime; in some cases it may be the only way to verify an ambiguous event. Ifft noted that “when the treaty enters into force, OSI will be a powerful force to use for verification.”

EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

Highlights

Connect with EWI’s alumni network on Facebook and LinkedIn: search for “EastWest Institute alumni”

Change Agents People from EWI’s Past and Present EWI Leader: Zuhal Kurt

CEO of Kurt Enterprises and EWI Board Member

East and North Africa, which lag behind Europe and the United States. How do you see Turkey’s role on the international stage changing in the coming years? It will become a staging point for Western commercial activities directed toward the resource-rich Middle East and Caspian Basin. Politically, it will become an important go-between for Western powers engaging with emerging Muslim democracies with strong Islamic identities. What are your thoughts on the launch of the Economic Security Initiative? How do you see the institute making a difference in the field of economic security? Trade interdependence is the fundamental basis for security. Countries who trade together share peace together, and governments allowing fully participatory economic systems are more stable.

How did you first come to hear about the EastWest Institute, and how did you get involved? I was introduced to EWI by Allen Collinsworth, an acting fellow and former staff member. He shared with me some exciting work EWI was doing to curb violent extremism and also their work to bring development in Afghanistan. [EWI President] John Mroz visited me in Istanbul and inspired me to get involved. How did Kurt Enterprises come about? How would you sum up its long-term mission? Kurt Enterprises was founded by my father Mehmet Kurt who was born

EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

and raised in the southern town of Adana, Turkey. Here he established the first flour mill and fostered a broader food production enterprise including sunflower oil and jam as well as packaging. Our family for generations has owned land around Turkey, which we continue to develop according to the economic demands of the era. What major international relations and public policy issues are you most passionate about? Violent extremism as well as the empowerment of women in business and political life are areas where I hope to see more progress in my lifetime— particularly in the predominantly Muslim areas of Turkey, the Middle

Corporations today have brought distrust to the economic system, suggesting that wealth and risk are not fairly distributed, and early generations benefit at the expense of those in the future. Whether we are talking about investing in state and global assets such as water and energy supplies or even cyber infrastructure, these can all be pursued under the banner of economic security. What are the advantages of working with EWI as a director? Firstly, I have met wonderful people at EWI, people who genuinely care about making this world a safer place. It is fulfilling to be a part of an organization that doesn’t just talk about problems but gets out there and solves them.

www.ewi.info

Andrew Nagorski’s Hitlerland is available on Amazon: www.amazon.com/dp/143919100X

EWI Vice President’s New Book on Americans in Hitler’s Germany

WI Vice President and Director for Public Policy Andrew Nagorski’s new book, Hitlerland: American Eyewitnesses to the Nazi Rise to Power (Simon & Schuster), was released March 13. The book chronicles the experiences of American expatriates living in Germany during Adolf Hitler’s transformation from a local agitator to

the all-powerful leader of a terrifying regime. Hitlerland explores the perspectives of such prominent Americans as George Kennan, Sinclair Lewis, Charles Lindbergh, Jesse Owens, William Randolph Hearst and W.E.B. Dubois during their time in Germany. The book was the product of extensive research and in-

terviews; as Henry Kissinger explains, Nagorski “plumbed the dispatches, diaries, letters, and interviews of American journalists, diplomats and others who were present in Berlin to write a fascinating account of a fateful era.”

Publishers Weekly writes: “Nagorski’s account is rich in anecdotal detail about how a man dismissed by many

could hypnotize a nation and terrorize the world.” At a time when the public debate about current flashpoints often uses Hitler and 1938 as a reference point, Nagorski’s latest work is essential reading. For more information visit www.andrewnagorski.com.

EWI Alumnus: Vartan Sarkissian Vartan Sarkissian is the CEO of Knightsbridge Cybersystems, an organization focused on providing solutions to critical cybersecurity problems.

ut before taking on that task, he helped launch EWI’s Worldwide Cybersecurity Initiative, culminating in the first Worldwide Cybersecurity Summit, held in Dallas in May 2010. Since then, his work has spawned an increasingly ambitious cybersecurity agenda. Before joining EWI in 2009, Sarkissian was the founder and CEO of two companies: a software firm named High-Tech TA and the music-based social network RawRip. When he met with EWI President John Mroz, the two quickly discovered many shared interests and concerns. Those discussions led to an offer for Sarkissian to join EWI as the founding director of the Worldwide Cybersecurity Initiative (WCI). Sarkissian admits it wasn’t an easy assignment. “Just like in any start-up, we encountered various challenges in the initial stages,” he says. “Nevertheless, there was a lot of excitement and eagerness from everyone to launch this new and www.ewi.info

innovative project.” The first step was to drum up interest and support among major players. “We knew that cybersecurity was an extremely important aspect of everyday life, business and policy,” Sarkissian explains. “However, the first challenge we encountered was the generic lack of awareness and understanding when speaking to others.” To raise awareness, the WCI team “quickly initiated most conversations with awareness presentations and reports, explaining that cybersecurity is more than just the security of your computers, but touches upon all aspects of our life from our home security, cell phones, to critical infrastructure protection such as electrical grids and nuclear power plants,” he says. “Once the scope was explained,” he adds, “we continually received positive reactions to our initiative.” EWI’s first Worldwide Cybersecurity

Summit in Dallas brought together about 400 leaders of governments, businesses and civil society from around the world to plan new measures to ensure the security of the world’s digital infrastructure. The summit was a major success, and, as a result, EWI established an annual summit series. The 2011 summit took place in London, and the third Worldwide Cybersecurity Summit will be held in New Delhi this October. Looking ahead, Sarkissian predicts that “cyber threats will become more frequent and severe.” As a result, he adds: “Cybersecurity needs to be made an obligation, a responsibility or a legal requirement. Certain critical infrastructure security procedures will be mandated not only to embed specific types of cybersecurity but also to report breaches, hacks or other such threats.” Sarkissian continues his engagement with EWI as a senior advisor to the president. EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012

Find out more at www.ewi.info

Highlights

Coming Up March 19 | Washington, D.C. Cyber40 Meeting: “The Role of Governments in Protecting the Digital Economy” Ambassadors from the Cyber40 countries will meet to discuss cybersecurity policy at the Embassy of India. March 27-28 | Washington, D.C. The Affordable World Security Conference The W.P. Carey Foundation, in collaboration with EWI, will host a conference on assuring world security in the 21st century.

April 16-17 | Geneva, Switzerland The Geneva Dialogue on Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Cyberattacks This dialogue on ensuring safeguards against cyber attacks will be organized by the Geneva Security Forum in cooperation with the EastWest Institute and the Swiss Confederation.

April 23-27 | Beijing, China 6th U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue EWI will lead a delegation of senior U.S. experts to Beijing for talks with Chinese officials, scholars and military representatives to explore concrete ways to increase strategic trust between the United States and China.

EastWest Institute New York Center 11 East 26th Street, 20th Floor New York, NY 10010 United States of America

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EWI Highlights | SPRING 2012