Highlights | Summer 2013 by EastWest Institute

>> In this issue: U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue Reconnecting Afghanistan’s Infrastructure UN Cyber and Water Events Meet our new board members EWI Alumnus: Simon Saradzhyan

Asia: The Cybersecurity Battleground

EWI’s Cyber Expert Testifies on the Hill

long with two other national cybersecurity experts, Karl Rauscher, EWI’s chief technology officer and distinguished fellow, testified on the Hill on July 23, at a House subcommittee hearing on “Asia: The Cybersecurity Battleground.” Rauscher, with McAfee’s Chief Technology Officer and Global Public Sector Vice President Phyllis Schneck and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Director and Senior Fellow James Lewis, gave official statements and fielded questions from the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific. They discussed a broad array of cybersecurity challenges, U.S.-Chinese bilateral relations in cyberspace and the prospects for regional and global cooperation. “Malicious actors are taking advantage of a lack of cooperation in cyberspace,” Rauscher warned. “We just don’t have the tight coordination that we need.” He pointed out that EWI has already started promoting both better coordination and cooperation. Holding up the EWI reports Fighting Spam to Build Trust and Priority International Communications, Rauscher focused on the need to take proactive measures, including implementing a new means of effective international communication in times of crisis. > [PAGE 6]

EWI’s Chief Technology Officer and Distinguished Fellow Karl Rauscher on the Hill.

Highlights

Developments Latest News from EWI’s Initiatives Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment

President’s Message

he Snowden affair is having an enormous impact around the world—a seemingly unending stream of negative consequences for businesses worldwide as well as national security and intelligence, and the viability of key alliances. The vulnerability of “secure” information in a digital global economy gives serious cause for concern. At the same time, a new class of threats has emerged in recent months that demonstrates precisely how rogue states or non-state actors are now able to obtain on the open market the most powerful and effective capacities to damage or destroy critical infrastructure, financial data and more. EWI is broadening our worldwide cybersecurity work to include governance and other dimensions of securing cyberspace. In this issue, we share some recent EWI actions in this arena. EWI Chief Technology Officer Karl Rauscher testified at a U.S. Congressional hearing, and cybersecurity was one of the topics of discussion at the U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue in Beijing. EWI is mobilizing resources to leverage change in the growing crisis of global water, food and energy. Our new program head, Michele Ferenz, has completed a major assessment of where and how EWI can make the most significant impact in this space—all made more urgent by the rapid changes in global climate. An important meeting with the Asian Development Bank led to some eye-opening conclusions. Finally, we see EWI’s Abu Dhabi Process in action in one of the most conflict-prone regions of the world. EWI recently hosted a significant-coming together of critical players from Afghanistan and the Southwest Asian Region. High-level parliamentarians made concrete commitments to address some of the major stumbling blocks to greater economic cooperation—for example, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade Agreement provisions that are not being honored. Specific proposals were made on how to “unblock” progress on these issues.

Despite recent tensions in the bilateral relationship between Russia and the United States, cooperation on counternarcotics has endured, developing slowly but steadily. EWI’s report Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment focuses on the serious threats these two countries face from the flow of drugs from Afghanistan and its corrosive impact on Afghanistan itself. The report’s contributors point out that preventing an explosion in this opium trade is a prerequisite for improving the security of Afghanistan and its neighbors after the withdrawal of foreign troops next year. A Joint Policy Assessment report, offering specific policy suggestions for both Russia and the United States to curtail the flow of opiates from Afghanistan, will follow shortly.

EWI’s action orientation has us intensifying our relationship with key parliamentarians from critical countries. Snapshots of what they are doing rounds out this summer issue. The world continues to change at hyper-speed. The number of serious risks to global stability continues to challenge us in unprecedented ways. We have much to do.

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

Learn More John Edwin Mroz

Read the report at www.ewi.info/afghanjta www.ewi.info

Find out more about EWI cyber work at: www.cybersummit.info

New York Times Editorial Praises EWI’s Cyber Work An editorial on May 25, 2013, in The New York Times urged President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping to consider EWI’s work on fighting spam as a model for U.S.-China cooperation. The editorial pointed to the high cost of hacking, and noted that new measures are needed to

help counter this threat. “But before adopting punitive measures, the two nations need to try working together,” it declared. “For example, the EastWest Institute, an independent research group, is working with representatives of

U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue A high-level U.S. delegation led by General (ret.) T. Michael Moseley, EastWest Institute board member, Chairman of the Gulf Alliance Company and former United States Air Force Chief of Staff, held five days of meetings with senior Chinese officials and experts from May 6–10, 2013, in Beijing.

and South China Seas, U.S.-China military confidence-building in the Asia-Pacific and cybersecurity.

The key discussions during the week focused on a wide range of geopolitical and military issues, including the forging of “a new type of relationship between major countries,” Taiwan, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, maritime disputes in the East

The High-Level Security Dialogue is an annual dialogue between current and former government and military officials, U.S. and Chinese academics and business leaders. The goal of the dialogue is to generate concrete recommendations to policymakers in both countries on building a common vision for the bilateral relationship; promoting mutual long-term trust and confidence; and fostering cooperation in challenging areas within the relationship.

he confidential meetings, organized by EWI in partnership with the China Institute of International Studies, marked the seventh U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue, which occurred just two months after a major government transition in China.

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many governments, including China and the United States, to develop ground rules for protecting the digital infrastructure. The group’s detailed proposal on fighting spam — which carries malware used by hackers — is worth considering by President Obama and President Xi.”

Activities included:

Two days of discussion with experts from the China Institute of International Studies focusing on building “a new type of relationship between major countries;” the role of third-party factors in U.S.-China relations, such as Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam; and nuclear proliferation challenges in North Korea and Iran.

Meeting with Mr. Wang Xian, Director General of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

A half-day discussion with military scholars on U.S.-China military confidence-building in the Asia-Pacific at the National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army.

Meeting with Assistant Minister Le Yucheng of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

Highlights

Developments

Supporting Women Leaders Globally

Women and Post-2014 Afghanistan

As part of their “Women, Peace and Security” partnership, EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention and Women’s Action for New Directions (WAND) brought together U.S. state legislators and international parliamentarians in Ankara on May 28-30.

he purpose of this meeting was to help participants learn from the experiences of Turkish women leaders, and explore ways in which women leaders can better support one another globally. Women in Turkey have successfully gained a place at the highest levels of government. “We struggle in a different way, but we struggle with the same issues,” responded one of the U.S. legislators upon hearing accounts of the difficulties women have

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

in countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan. One of the positive outcomes of this meeting was that members of the U.S. delegation committed to take up the issue of the security needs of women with their respective members in Congress.

The aim of the partnership is to create better understanding amongt these female legislators, to forge personal ties and to learn about various models and tools available to increase their impact in their respective security debates.

Ten U.S. state legislators and six participants hailing from Afghanistan, Morocco, Pakistan and Tunisia gathered for a series of dialogues with Deputy Minister for Family and Social Policy Dr. Aşkın Asan as well as with Turkish parliamentary committees.

The partnership plans to establish a gender-equality institute and a relationship with the Parliamentary Union of the OIC Member States (PUIC) to engage further women in critical discussions on conflict prevention, peace and security.

Women and Post-2014 Afghanistan: Report on Afghanistan Parliamentarians’ Visit to Brussels, a new report from the EastWest Institute, highlights the importance of protecting the rights of women in Afghanistan after the pullout of foreign troops. The release of this report coincides with the fifth Anniversary of the Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, which mobilizes members in parliaments across the globe to find pioneering ways to prevent and end conflicts.

Learn More Read the report at www.ewi.info/womenpost2014

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Afghanistan Reconnected EWI’s conference, “Afghanistan Reconnected: The Potential for Afghanistan to Act as an Economic Land Bridge in Asia” was the first in a series of meetings to boost regional economic cooperation.

eld in Istanbul on April 10-11, as part of the Abu Dhabi Process, the conference brought together nearly 40 participants from around the globe, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, the U.S. and Europe. The conference came at a critical time in Afghan history; the imminent 2014 troop withdrawal coupled with Afghanistan’s transition from a security economy to a more sustainable peace economy, with sufficient growth and revenue, threatens to upset regional power balances. “Achievements on the security front will be fleeting unless they are underpinned by sustainable economic development,” Ambassador Fatih Ceylan of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned at the opening. Other participants stressed that the market will not wait for those in power to make decisions necessary for economic development. The conference allowed regional busi-

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ness communities to voice their interest in more unimpeded trade and business opportunities, and to discuss challenges to developing the hard and soft infrastructure required to enhance Afghanistan’s connectivity. Attendees agreed that Afghanistan’s economic potential will only be optimized when the nation becomes a transit route for trade and continental transport, connecting people and markets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. “We need to develop a cooperative framework through which we are able to bind the region in a web of trade, energy and transport linkages,” Ambika Sharma, deputy secretary general and head of the International Division at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told participants. Those linkages, she added, “will not only act as a major confidence building measure, but will also contribute to greater economic synergies in the region and spur economic growth in Afghanistan and beyond.” Another key issue was the relationship between Afghanistan and

Pakistan and the need to enhance regular trade in line with the Afghanistan Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA). Attendees discussed potential opportunities, including the Southern Corridor from India to the Middle East and Europe. Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Robert Finn of Princeton University analyzed the relationship between Afghanistan and Central Asia, pointing to the economic benefits of using the shorter Southern Corridor for container shipment. The conference agreed on a number of recommendations to aid the development of the infrastructure network within Afghanistan and beyond in the short, medium and long term. Both Afghan government representatives and parliamentarians vowed to take swift action on these recommendations. Among them: increased efforts to fully implement APTTA, as well as its gradual extension to India and the removal of impediments to the fast transfer of goods between Kandahar and the Pakistani port at Gwadar.

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UN on Water More than 150 people packed the room for “Ways to Integrate Efforts in Furthering Water Dialogue and Cooperation,” a UN side-event hosted by the EastWest Institute, the Permanent Mission of Tajikistan to the UN, UN-Water and the Water Friends Group on February 22, at the UN Headquarters in New York City. This event underlined UNGA resolution 65/154 declaring 2013 as the International Year of Water Cooperation (IYWC). Zafar Adeel, director of the United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment and Health, moderated a panel of experts who helped identify and address global action points for water dialogue and partnerships. Olcay Ünver, coordinator of UN-Water’s World Water Assessment Programme, pointed out that the experts are not always included in key deliberations. “Many of the challenges to water security and management come from other sectors and water managers are seldom consulted when dealing with these challenges,” Ünver said. “Water must become part of the equation,” he continued, stressing that water impacts a huge number of issues in any nation—including public health, jobs, energy, food, sustainability and opportunities for women. Sanjay Pahuja, senior water resources specialist at the World Bank, stressed the importance of education as key to water cooperation, illustrating his point with an example of Indian farmers, who moderated their own water use after learning pertinent elements of hydrogeology.

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“Let the farmers be the scientists,” Pahuja stated, as he elaborated on this bottom-up approach.

UN on Cyber More than 130 people from 50 countries attended “Cybersecurity: Unchartered Waters for the UN,” a panel discussion hosted by the German Mission and the EastWest Institute on June 6, at the German House in New York City. Ambassador Peter Wittig opened the event calling cybersecurity “a major cross-cutting issue of foreign policy,” where “the stakes are too high and too many lives are at risk for a mere laissez-faire approach.” He admitted the UN rarely discusses cyber issues and that this must change. The panelists were James Lewis, senior fellow and program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C.; Sandro Gaycken, researcher in technology and security, Institute of Computer Science, Freie Universität, Berlin; and Cherian Samuel, associate fellow, Strategic Technologies Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Colum Lynch, UN correspondent for the Washington Post and blogger for Foreign Policy moderated. All panelists agreed that current strategies for cybersecurity are not working, but they differed in their views of how to tackle this increasingly complex issue. As EWI President John Mroz pointed out in his closing remarks: “Nobody knows how big the cybersecurity problem is, and that is why it is essential that we continue this dialogue and work together for tangible solutions.”

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

Connect with EWI’s alumni network on Facebook and LinkedIn: search for “EastWest Institute alumni”

Highlights

Change Agents People from EWI’s Past and Present Asia: The Cybersecurity Battleground

New EWI Leaders EWI welcomes its three new board members

Matt Bross

Kevin Taweel

Ralph Isham

Matt Bross is the CEO of IP Partners Ltd, which provides strategic advisory and market development services to Chinese companies seeking to expand into Western markets and to advise U.S. based companies that plan to develop a business platform in the China marketplace. He was the former global chief technology officer (CTO) of Huawei and the former CTO of British Telecom and chief executive officer (CTO) of BT Innovate.

Kevin Taweel is the co-founder of Asurion, the world’s largest provider of technology protection services. Since co-founding Asurion in 1994, the company has grown from 40 to 10,000 employees, becoming the world’s largest provider of technology protection services, partnering with the world’s top companies and brands and serving over 200 million customers.

Ralph H. Isham is founder and managing director of GH Venture Partners LLC (GHVP). Since 1990, Isham has directed GHVP’s private investments as principal and agent in numerous emerging growth companies in the field of telecommunications, transportation technologies and health-care services.

In 2007, Bross was awarded a Stevie International Business award for “Best MIS & IT Executive” and a William Pitt Fellowship by Pembroke College at the University of Cambridge. In 2008, Global Telecoms Business listed Bross among the top 100 most influential people in the telecoms industry. In 2010, FierceWireless named him one of the most powerful people in wireless for his role in helping to guide Huawei into a dominant emerging force within the global marketplace. 6

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

Previously, Taweel was chairman and president of the investment firm Mill River Corporation and worked in mergers and acquisitions for Salomon Brothers. Taweel and his Asurion co-founder received the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year Award in 2001. Taweel is a faculty member at the Stanford Graduate School of Business where he teaches entrepreneurship courses in the MBA program, from which he graduated in 1992.

Before joining GHVP, Isham worked as a consultant to corporate management with The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and with Strategic Planning Associates. He was formerly a fellow with the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee during the SALT II treaty hearings. Isham also worked at the American Stock Exchange. He is the co-founder of the Vienna-based International NeuroTrauma Research Organization, a leading medical organization devoted to conducting research and improving the care of patients with traumatic neurological injuries.

> [CONTINUED] In his full testimony, Rauscher drove home this point by using a metaphor to explain the state of cyberspace when an emergency situation arises. “We have too many people practiced in bailing water out of the boat and not enough capable of plugging holes,” he said. “But when there is water in the boat, and you are getting wet, it is hard to focus on long-term solutions. We need leadership to shift the focus.” Rauscher also pointed out that, to a large extent, the major players in Asia complement each other’s strengths. “The United States is the leading innovator in cyberspace while China is the largest manufacturer of hardware systems, and India is a leading supplier of both software and networked services,” he noted. “Our mutual interdependence in cyberspace is profound.” Rauscher stressed optimism in improving bilateral relations with China, “The benchmark [for success], really, is zero percent. These are really hard issues. If you look at what we’ve taken on, people aren’t trying to address them because they think they’re impossible.” With other countries, too, he argued, much more can be done to move beyond purely reactive measures. Committee Chair Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) reiterated this point. “The U.S. must engage its allies around the world to promote the preservation of global network functionality, in addition to establishing confidence building measures that foster trust and reliability with nations,” he said. During the discussion, Schneck said, “We [at McAfee] believe in global conversation. These forums, like [EWI’s annual cybersecurity summit] mentioned by Mr. Rauscher and others, are good starts to that global forum.” Rauscher stressed that governments alone cannot deal with these problems. “Given its more intimate knowledge of technology design and development, this leadership will likely need to come from the private sector,” he concluded. www.ewi.info

EWI 2012 Director of the Year - Zuhal Kurt Kurt is the chief executive officer of privately held Kurt Enterprises, a Turkish company whose invest-

ments include a broad portfolio of real estate holdings as well as race horse training technolo-

gies. She is passionately determined to confront violent extremism and advance women’s empow-

erment in business and politics. EWI staff select the Director of the Year.

EWI Alumnus: Simon Saradzhyan Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center How did you first become involved with EWI? Upon completing a graduate degree program, I started looking for opportunities to apply the policy analysis skills I acquired in the course of my studies. My long-term ambition was to gradually transition from journalism to research. EWI advertised a part-time research position in Moscow; I applied and got the job. What was it like reporting on and covering the October 1993 violent clashes in Moscow? How did that inform your future research? I was a junior, inexperienced reporter at that time, so I did rather silly, if not outright dangerous, things. I once crawled across a boulevard to interview police officers as they fired at the roof of a Moscow building, trying to suppress sniper fire. After annoying these officers with questions, I tried to interview a couple of apprehended suspects, but realized I could not evacuate because we were pinned down by enemy fire. Doing such things, I got more than enough “color” for news stories. Looking back, I realize that my risk-taking was excessive and irresponsible. That said, I remain proud of our newspaper’s coverage of the coup. As post-Communist Russia, still smarting from the disintegration of the USSR, was brought to the brink of a full-blown civil war, if not im-

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plosion, we all worked around the clock, reporting from both sides of the divide. My most memorable scene occurred in a Stalin-era residential complex in downtown Moscow. The apartment contained the only passage to the roof. We all had to pass through that attic to get to the roof, as we tried to observe tanks positioning in front of the White House (the seat of the Russian parliament where coup leaders were based). The tenant had a magnificent view of the White House from his windows, but he still chose to watch a live CNN broadcast of the tanks roaring in front of the parliament on his TV screen. What are your thoughts on the current state of U.SRussia relations? What can institutions like EWI do to improve these relations? The personal relationship between leaders of the two nations is cooler than it was during Medvedev’s presidency. When formulating his public statements on Russian-U.S. relations, Vladimir Putin needs to take into account the rather negative view of the United States held by the conservative Russian voters who voted for him. Nevertheless, as illustrated by the past ObamaPutin meeting on the sidelines of the G8 summit, the two governments continue to work together on issues that are of vital interest to their countries,

such as counterterrorism, non-proliferation and regional stability. With all the low-hanging fruit already picked, U.S. and Russian leaders must tackle thornier issues, making it difficult to sustain the moderate momentum regained at the G8 summit. The thorniest issue is the U.S. plan to develop ballistic missile defenses (BMD). A U.S.-Russian BMD deal could not only lead to a new round of nuclear arms reductions that Obama desires, but also usher in deeper cooperation on vital interest to the two countries. But deeper cooperation may prove unsustainable, in the long-term, without solid economic foundations. As of 2012, Russia was 20th on the list of America’s trading partners, while for Russia, the U.S. is eighth. Indicatively, given this trade imbalance, the U.S. did not make it onto the list of the top ten investors in Russia that year. How to develop deeper economic ties, especially given America’s progress toward self-sufficiency in energy and Russia’s investment in climate sustainability, is an issue with which Obama, Putin and their successors will have to grapple. How did your experience as a journalist in Russia focus your research interests? It had decisive impact. I now research the same issues and regions that I used to write

about as a journalist while also delving into areas that I dealt with only occasionally first as a reporter, then as an editor, such as energy and cybersecurity. In addition to these two issues, I pay considerably more attention to the nuclear security aspects of U.S.-Russian cooperation and to post-Soviet states’ relations with China. How does your past work at EWI relate to your current research position? EWI was the first think tank I worked for on a regular basis; I acquired many useful skills and experience. I remain grateful to my colleagues from whom I have learned a lot. Some of them have become my good friends, and we stay in touch. While I produced a number of analytical products at EWI, including a report that I co-wrote with Greg Austin recommending the revival of a U.S. President-Russian Prime Minister cooperative framework (which we saw revived at the past Obama-Putin meeting), I also helped EWI facilitate meetings with policyshapers designed to advance U.S.-EU-Russian “trialogue” cooperation. At the Belfer Center, I focus on generating and implementing ideas to advance cooperation between Russia and the U.S., especially in areas of mutual vital interest, including the U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment of Nuclear Terrorism.

EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013

Highlights

ComingUp

Your contributions help EWI make the world a safer and better place. Visit ewi.info/support to learn more.

nextgen: Get Involved! September 29-October 2 Washington, D.C. WAND Biannual Conference

November 4-6 Silicon Valley, CA World Cyberspace Cooperation Summit IV

Following the first meeting in Ankara with women U.S. state legislators and parliamentarians from the wider MENA region, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, this gathering will include capacity building sessions and participation in WAND’s biannual conference “Women at the Tables of Power.” It will bring together more than a hundred U.S. state legislators and feature a critical role for the international Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention.

After previous events in Dallas, London and New Delhi, the EastWest Institute will bring its cybersecurity summit series back to the United States. Located at the epicenter of technology innovation, the Silicon Valley summit will drive intensely focused work on vital cybersecurity issues. This year’s summit will feature a renewed emphasis on building trust among key players. Visit: cybersummit.info

The EastWest Institute believes that young professionals have a unique perspective on international issues and tries to capture this perspective in the nextgen blog. This blog is a platform the EastWest Institute provides to the next generation of policy and business professionals to encourage dialogue between current and future world leaders.

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To get the nextgen perspective, or to submit, go to ewinextgen.tumblr.com

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EWI Highlights | SUMMER 2013