Exam zone
Chapter 14 Monetary Policy and the Bank of Canada Economics 282 University of Alberta
Principles of Money Supply Determination • The supply of money is affected by three groups of market participants: – the central bank; – depository institutions; – the public.
An All-Currency Economy • The belief that money has value is self justifying. • The government helps convince the public that paper money has value, usually by decreeing that the money is legal tender – creditors are required to accept the money in settlement of debts.
An All-Currency Economy (continued) • The liabilities of the Central Bank that are usable as money are called the monetary base or high-powered money. • In an all-currency economy the money supply equals the monetary base.
The Money Supply under Fractional Reserve Banking • All Agricolians want to keep their money in bank deposits, rather than in currency. • Liquid assets held by banks to meet the demands for withdrawals by depositors or to pay cheques drawn on depositors’ accounts are called bank reserves.
Fractional Reserve Banking (continued) • 100% reserve banking is a banking system where bank reserves equal 100% of deposits. • Fraction-reserve banking is a banking system in which banks hold only a fraction of their deposits in reserves.
Fractional Reserve Banking (continued) • In a fraction-reserve banking system the reserve-deposit ratio – reserves divided by deposits – is less than one. • Fractional-reserve banking system is profitable for banks because a portion of deposited funds can be used for interestearning loans.
Fractional Reserve Banking (continued) • A multiple expansion of loans and deposits is a process of increase an economy’s loans and deposits by the fractional reserve banking system.
Fractional Reserve Banking (continued) BASE M DEP res DEP is total bank deposits BASE is the monetary base res is the bank’s desired reserve-deposit ratio=RES/DEP RES is total bank reserves
Bank Runs • If a large number of depositors attempt to withdraw currency simultaneously, the bank will be unable to meet all its depositors’ demand for cash. • A large-scale, panicky withdrawal of deposits from a bank is called a bank run.
The Money Supply • The central bank may control the monetary base but it does not directly control the money supply.
M CU DEP BASE CU RES M CU DEP BASE CU RES
CU is currency
The Money Supply (continued) M (CU/DEP) 1 BASE (CU/DEP) (RES/DEP) • CU/DEP (cu) is the currency-deposit ratio, the decision of public • RES/DEP (res) is the reserve-deposit ratio, the decision of banks
The Money Supply (continued) cu 1 M BASE cu res
• The money supply is the multiple of the monetary base. • The money multiplier decreases when either cu or res increases.
Open-Market Operations • To change the level of money supply a central bank must change the amount of monetary base or change the money multiplier. • The bank of Canada affects the monetary base so as to influence short-term interest rates.
Open-Market Operations (continued) • A purchase of assets from the public by the central bank is called an open-market purchase. It increases the monetary base. • A sale of assets to the public by the central bank is called an open-market sale. It reduces the monetary base.
Monetary Control in Canada • In fact the Bank of Canada is independent from the government. • It is the only institution in control of shortterm monetary policy.
The Bank of Canada’s Balance Sheet • The Bank’s largest asset is its holdings of government securities. • The largest liability of the Bank is currency in circulation.
The Bank of Canada’s Balance Sheet (continued) • Deposits of chartered banks at the Bank of Canada is a convenient way of holding reserves and of settling their accounts with other banks.
Tools of Monetary Policy: Overnight Rates • The banks hold balances at the Bank of Canada, called clearing or settlement balances. • 13 large banks and credit union associations called direct clearers hold their reserves at the central bank to settle their net transfers.
Overnight Rates (continued) • A bank with a larger balance than it needs to meet its settlement obligations can lend some of its balances to another bank for one day, charging an interest rate called the overnight rate.
Overnight Rates (continued) • The bank of Canada implements monetary policy by influencing the overnight rate. • The center of a band for the overnight rate is called the target overnight rate.
Overnight Rates (continued) • The Bank is prepared to lend at the interest rate at the top of the band (the Bank rate). • The bank pays interest on deposits at the rate given by the bottom edge of the band.
Overnight Rates (continued) • A lower target for the overnight interest rate leads to increase in asset advances to the banks, the monetary base expansion and an increase in money supply. • The money supply and interest rates move in opposite directions.
Overnight Rates (continued) • Most often bank s borrow reserves from each other. • The Bank of Canada stands ready to lend at the Bank rate to prevent financial crises by serving as a lender of last resort.
Tools of Monetary Policy: Open Market Operations • To increase the money supply the Bank could conduct an open-market purchase from the public.
Open Market Operations (continued) • The value of the overnight interest rate by buying/selling its securities using Special Purchase and Resale Agreements (SPRA) and Sale and Repurchase Agreements (SRA).
Tools of Monetary Policy: The Exchange Fund Account • The Bank manages the federal government’s holdings of various currencies in the separate exchange fund account. • These reserves can be used to intervene into the foreign exchange market.
Intermediate Targets • The Bank of Canada sets goals and ultimate targets, e.g. price stability and stable economic growth. • To reach the goals the bank uses its monetary policy tools, or instrument – overnight rates and open-market operations.
Intermediate Targets (continued) • Intermediate targets, or indicators, are macroeconomic variables that the Bank cannot control directly but can influence fairly predictably and that, in turn, are related to the goals the Bank is trying to achieve.
Intermediate Targets (continued) • Intermediate targets can be the exchange rate, monetary aggregates and short-term nominal interest rates. • The Bank cannot simultaneously target the exchange rate and the money supply, or the money supply and interest rates.
Intermediate Targets (continued) • The Bank could reduce the instability caused by nominal shocks by using monetary policy to hold the interest rate constant.
Making Monetary Policy in Practice • The practical issues of monetary policy are: – lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy; – uncertainty about the channels through which monetary policy works.
Lags in the Effects of Monetary Policy • Interest rates and the nominal exchange rate react quickly to changes in monetary policy. • The full negative effects of tighter monetary policy on real GDP is not felt until about six months. Prices respond even more slowly.
Lags in the Effects of Monetary Policy (continued) • Te Bank’s policy decisions should be based on forecasts what the economy will be doing six months to two years in the future.
The Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission • The effects of monetary policy on the economy can work through changes in: – real interest rates (the interest rate channel of monetary policy). – the real exchange rate (the exchange rate channel of monetary policy).
Monetary Policy Transmission (continued) • A tightening of monetary policy reduces both the supply and demand for credit, mechanism referred to as the credit channel of monetary policy.
The Credit Channel • The reduced bank reserves lead to smaller quantity of customer deposits and reduced lending by banks. • High interest rates add to borrowing firm’s interest costs and lower its profitability, making it harder for the firm to obtain loans.
The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Discretion • Keynesians believe that monetary policy can and should be used to smooth the business cycle. • So, the Bank should use its policy discretion to best achieve its goals.
The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Rules • Monetarists and classical economists are supporters of the rules, or automatic monetary policy.
The Monetarist Case for Rules • Monetary policy has powerful short-run effects on the real economy. • In the long run changes in the money supply have their primary effect on the price level.
The Monetarist Case for Rules (continued) • There is little scope for using monetary policy actively to try to smooth business cycle. • The central bank cannot be relied on to smooth business cycles effectively.
The Monetarist Case for Rules (continued) • The central bank should choose a specific monetary aggregate and commit itself to making that aggregate grow at a fixed percentage rate.
Rules and Central Bank Credibility • The use of monetary rules can improve the credibility of the central bank and the credibility of the central bank influences how well monetary policy works.
A Game Between Central Bank and Firms • The central bank wants to reduce the inflation rate to zero without increasing in the unemployment rate. • It announces that it will keep M constant and asks business to hold P constant for this period.
Rules, Commitment and Credibility • If a central bank is credible, it can reduce money growth and inflation without incurring high unemployment. • The central bank can develop its reputation by carrying out its promises, but that may involve serious costs while it is established.
Rules, Commitment and Credibility (continued) • Advocates of rules suggest that by forcing the central bank to keep promises, rules may be a substitute for reputation in establishing credibility.
Rules, Commitment and Credibility (continued) • Keynesians argue, establishing a rule ironclad enough to create credibility, by eliminating policy flexibility, also create unacceptable risks.
Other Ways to Achieve Central Bank Credibility • Appointing a “tough” central banker. • Changing central banker’s incentives. • Increasing central bank independence.
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