Wars in the 21st Century- Adrian Gordon

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Adrian Gordon Senior Advisor, Canadian Centre for Emergency Preparedness

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In 2009, Sir John Beddington, Chief Science Advisor to the UK Government said that the world was facing a “perfect storm” of food shortages, water scarcity, and costly oil by 2030”

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World is in OUR hands EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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India – Pakistan 1947 EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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Hiroshima 1945

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Stuxnet

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Stuxnet users

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“...the world ignores the possibility of peak oil at its peril�. Dr. James Schlesinger Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (1971-73) Director of the CIA (1973) Secretary of Defense (1973-75) 1st Secretary of Energy (1977-79) EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005 Hirsch Report commissioned by US Dept of Energy

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Saudi Arabia – oil reserves overstated by up to 40%

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$126.87

Brent Crude Apr 10, 2011

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Mar 2011 392

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Tipping Points EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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The elephant in the room that no-one wants to talk about Professor John Guillebaud Co-chair Optimum Population Trust

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'We urgently need to stabilise and reduce human numbers. There is no way that a population of nine billion (the UN's medium forecast for 2050) can meet its energy needs without unacceptable damage to the planet and a great deal of human misery.' Professor Guillebaud Co-chair Optimum Population Trust

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World food production must increase by 70% by 2050 to nourish a human population of 9.1B EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

UN FAO

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percentage of arable land by region EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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50 %of Food is Wasted The Stockholm International Water Institute Food and Agriculture Organization

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Food Riots: 2008 Mexico Haiti Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia... 2011 Tunisia Algeria ???

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Agricultural output in US$ by country

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Currently 1B people lack access to safe water The US National Intelligence Council ...estimate that by 2015, 3 billion people will live in countries that are water-stressed...experts warn of the possibility of armed conflict over water resources.

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Floods

Drought

Pollution EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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China 2009

Hurricane Alex, Mexico 2010 EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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“The question facing governments is whether they can respond quickly enough to prevent threats from becoming catastrophes....We need a national political leader to step forward, an environmental Churchill, to rally the world around this effort.� Lester Brown Founder Worldwatch Institute Earth Policy Institute EXPO Seguridad Mexico, April 13-14 2011

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Military intervention may also occur to counter mass migration from desertification and flooding etc... Climate Change & the Energy Crunch Defense Academy of the UK , 2010

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