PAPER EUP 22nd May 2017 “How should Europe Union use the renewable energies in order to reduce the oil imports of the Middle East�
PG: Name: Student number:
08 Fabrizio Rossi 2119372
Recipient:
Yvonne Janssen
Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................. 2 1. Oil & petroleum products in the EU .................................................................... 3 1.1 Crude oil and petroleum products: the definition ................................................... 3 1.2 Historical use of oil and petroleum products in the EU ........................................... 3 2. The Oil price and its volatility ............................................................................. 5 2.1 The volatility of oil price in the last decade ............................................................. 5 2.2 Oil Price Forecast .................................................................................................... 6 3. Oil import dependency in the EU ........................................................................ 7 3.1 EU depends on oil import ....................................................................................... 7 3.2 Major oil-exporters: The Middle East ..................................................................... 7 4. Environmental risks & Renewable energies ........................................................ 9 4.1 Environmental risk ................................................................................................. 9 4.2 Renewable energy .................................................................................................. 9 4.3 Renewable energy & European Union .................................................................. 10 5. Key message and Conclusion ............................................................................ 12 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................ 14 Bibliography ............................................................................................................ 17
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Introduction The purpose of this paper is to assess the EU’s oil dependency, the risks associated with imported oil and to provide a solution to reduce these risks and the oil dependency. Therefore, the objective and the research proposal of this paper is: “How should Europe Union use the renewable energies in order to reduce the oil imports of the Middle East”. Through this paper, it will be analysed in detail the strong impact of the oil imports in EU and more important it will be shown how to reduce the consumption of crude oil of the Middle East (major oil-exporting region) in order to promote more convenient and eco-friendly energy sources. This paper included three key tasks: •
A review of historical trend on oil dependency in the European Union
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An assessment of the environmental risks caused by oil extraction and consumption.
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Several solutions to fix the oil consumption promoting renewable energies
The remainder of the paper is in five chapters. •
Chapter 1 presents the difference between the crude oil and petroleum products. It also provides an overview of the historical use of oil and petroleum products in the EU.
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Chapter 2 presents the recent trends in oil price, its volatility and its future price.
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Chapter 3 discusses oil dependency in EU considering the recent fall in the oil price. It also presents and describes in detail the major oilexporter regions, in particularly the Middle East.
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Chapter 4 presents the geopolitical risks associated with imported oil and how renewable energies can be used to reduce the consumption of oil.
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Chapter 5 provides a key message and a possible solution to answer to the research question.
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1. 1.1
Oil & petroleum products in the EU Crude oil and petroleum products: the definition
First of all, it’s important to distinguish the difference between oil and petroleum products. In fact, the crude oil is an unrefined petroleum product and it composed by a mixture of hydrocarbons and other organic materials. While the petroleum products, such as gasoline and various forms of petrochemicals, are produced by refining the crude oil. While petroleum included both crude oil and petroleum products.
1.2
Historical use of oil and petroleum products in the EU
According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the worldwide consumption of gasoline, diesel, crude oil and other petroleum products peaked the record levels of 88.9 million barrels per day in 2012, although in North America and in Europe the consumption of those is decreased. (Energy Information Administation, 2013) In fact, the consumption of oil has fallen every year in Europe since 2006. This fallen is linked to an overall reduction in energy intensity and thanks to government policies that promote energy efficiency. Another important aspect, that afflicted the oil consumption in Europe, is the weak economic performance of Europe in the last decade. In fact, the oil consumption is dropped from 780 000 b/d (2009) to 570 000 b/d (2012) because of the slower growth of many European countries after the recession of 2008. (Ecquologia, 2015) Those factors brought to a slowly reduction in production of energy from oil products. In 2014, the electricity generation from oil products was less than a quarter of quantities used in 1990. Thus, between 2010 and 2014, the consumption of petroleum products has dropped below the 1990s level. Analysing the consumption of petroleum products by sector, in 2014 the transport sector represented the main consumer of petroleum products (54 %), followed by industry non-energy consumption (16 %). Obviously, the road transport is the key consumer in the transport sector. While bitumen for road surfaces and the use of lubricants in the chemical industry are the 3
main petroleum products used for non-energy purpose. It is important to underline that the EU has reduced the oil consumption, promoting the use of liquid biofuels, in the transport sector. However, the dependency on oil is still above 93 %. APPENDIX In the last 25 years, there are being relevant changes in the consumption of fuel in transport. Gas/diesel overtook motor gasoline across the year. In fact, in 2004 the diesel was consumed twice as much compared to gasoline. (Eurostat Statistics, 2017) One of third of gross inland energy consumption in the EU 28 is accounted for crude oil and petroleum products. Crude oil and its derived products remain the largest contributors to energy consumption, even though the production and the consumption in the EU has decreased in recent years. In the European Union, UK included, between 1995 and 2000 the primary production of crude oil was around 150 Mtoe and it reached the top with 151 Mtoe in 2002. Between 2002 and 2014 the production of crude oil has decreased by 53 % reaching 64.6 Mtoe1. (Eurostat Statistics, 2017) Analysing the statistics, the imports/exports of crude oil is one of the most relevant component of trade in oil. Another important component of trade in oil are the manufactured petroleum products such as gas/diesel oil, naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene type jet fuel. These types of products are increased across the last decade playing an important role in the EU market. APPENDIX Nevertheless, the EU is still the second largest producer of petroleum products behind only United States. In fact, crude oil and petroleum products have the biggest share of energy consumption in the EU Unfortunately, the production of crude oil in EU doesn’t cover the total need, thus European Union is forced to import crude oil from the non-EU countries and from the major importers.
1
Mtoe: Million Tons of Oil equivalent
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2.
The Oil price and its volatility 2.1 The volatility of oil price in the last decade
Another important economic factor to consider is the oil price. It is volatile. In 2008, the oil price increased reaching $ 140/bbl and then dropped to $ 30/bbl in 2016. These fluctuations in the oil price can create financial and economic instability. (Ambrose, 2017) The volatility of the oil price is caused by the foreign exchange traders which lead the value of the dollar by 25 percent in 2014 and 2015. It’s important to underline that all oil transactions are paid in dollars. Thus, the dollar plays a relevant role in oil trades. The price of petroleum, for those countries that export, has fallen due to the strong value of the dollar. In fact, most oil exporting countries adhered their currencies to the dollar. As a result, the dollar increased by 25% and the oil price dropped by 25 percent. (Amadeo, 2017) In 2014, Saudi Arabia reduced its price to its largest customers so as not to lose market share to U.S. Therefore, many U.S. shale producers were forced to go out of business. While Iran decided to double its oil exports to 2.4 million bll/d. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil price started to increase again at the end of 2016. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) decided to limit the production in order to get of rid of surplus supply and consequently boost prices. (International Energy Agency, 2017) The OPEC is an intergovernmental organization who interrelate with each its members on oil policy and the stabilization of oil market in order to guarantee an economic, efficient and regularly supply of petroleum to consumers. (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting countries, 2017) This organizations was founded by five countries (Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela) in 1960. Later, other countries joined the OPEC such as Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962) The United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975) and Angola (2007). The OPEC statute make a 5
difference between the Founder Members and Full members. In fact, “any country with a substantial net export of crude petroleum which has fundamentally similar interests to those of Member Countries, may become a Full Member of the Organization of the Petroleum, if accepted by a majority of three-fourths of Full Members including the concurring votes of all Founder Members”. (The Organization of The Petroleum Exporting Countr, 2017) Its member decided to cut the oil production by 1.2 million barrels by January 2017. The production reached 32.3 million bll/d. and the oil price picked $ 52.39/bbl. (Business Insider, 2017)
2.2 Oil Price Forecast According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, the oil consumption was almost 4 500 million tons in 2015 (33 % of the world energy consumption). Since then, world oil consumption has risen each year with an average per year of 1.2 % (Patterson, 2016) The future oil price is highly unpredictable and it depends on the future levels of oil demand and supply. The fluctuations in global crude oil can dramatically change the economy of a country, particularly for petroleum exporters. In fact, the increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the economic outlook for the exporters. In contrast, the petroleum importers have suffered due to an increase in oil prices. However, a decrease in crude oil prices could be a serious negative impact on the exporters’ economic prospects. According to several experts, the average of oil price will rise by 2020. Energy Information Administration forecast oil price to average $ 58/bbl in 2018 and the crude oil price will reach $ 79/bbl in 2020. (Amadeo, 2017) The world demand will start leading oil prices to $ 137/bbl by 2040. After 2040, the oil production will be more expensive because the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted. (Energy Information Administration, 2017)
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3.
Oil import dependency in the EU
3.1 EU depends on oil import Since 2000, the consumption of oil and petroleum products are fallen in Europe (on average a 1.1 % reduction per year). However, the EU recently has become increasingly dependent on crude oil imports. In fact, despite the decline, oil net imports have grown from 76 % to 88 % in 2014. (Energy Post, 2016). The EU is particularly dependent on diesel imports. The imports of diesel are doubled between 2000 and 2016, reaching an estimated value of € 37bn. According to Transport & Environment in 2015, when the oil price was exceptionally low, total spending on crude oil imports in the EU was € 187bn. Adding estimates for diesel imports yields a total of around € 215bn, equivalent to 425 € per capita. (Transport & Enviroment, 2016) In 2014 and especially in 2015, the volume of oil imported has dramatically increased due to a reduction in domestic production of oil. This aspect is also stimulated by the fact that 90 % of the EU member states depend on imports of crude oil and only Italy, Germany, Denmark and Romania have a domestic crude oil extraction industry. Therefore, between 2013 and 2015 oil imports increased by 7%. (European Commission, EU Crude oil imports, 2016)
3.2 Major oil-exporters: The Middle East As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Most of the oil imports come from Russia (30 %), from Nigeria (16 %) and from the Middle East (more than 15 %). The Middle East is one of the world's leading exporters and it is the largest oil producing region in the world holding a 35 % market share in 2016. Led by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran and Iraq, it is also of the top regions is expected to increase its oil production by 2020. Nowadays, the
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region accounts 810 billion barrels in proven reserves and 28 million bbl/d2 in production. Analysing the trends between 2010 and 2015, it is clear that the oil production in this region has increased from 24 million bbl/d to around 26 million bbl/d. Moreover, thanks to Iran and Iraq, the oil production in this region is forecasted to increase from 2016 to 2020, reaching 30 million bbl/d. (Kerimova & Akuliniseva, 2016) APPENDIX The most important oil producer of the Middle East is Saudi Arabia, which accounts 40 % of the regions’ oil production. However Saudi Arabia is not the only one, even United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Iran are oil producer and in these countries the oil production is expected to see the highest growth over the next decade. The UAE is the second largest producer of petroleum in the OPEC, behind only Saudi Arabia. The UAE’s government has decided to expand the oil production of 30 % by 2020 using Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques. This technique allows to increase the amount of oil that can be take out from an oil field. It is an expensive process and it may not be economic. However UAE keep investing in future production. The Middle East only uses nearly 33 % of the oil that it produces, the rest is exported to U.S. and Europe. (Kerimova & Akuliniseva, 2016) Unfortunately, many of these regions are geopolitically unstable and this makes imports difficult and unsafe. Consequently, the share of EU oil imports of some regions has fallen in the recent years. For example, due to geopolitical tensions with Iran, Saudi Arabia has reduced its share of oil exports to the EU from 10 % to 8 %. Economically speaking, EU is spending $ 16.1bn on crude oil from Saudi Arabia, instead of $ 20.1bn. Moreover, countries such as Yemen are facing high risk of conflict and terrorism. Iraq is another clear example of a country which is suffering from political instability. In fact, the Islamic State, a terrorist group, controls large part of the country, including many of the country’s oil fields. Therefore, these instabilities make oil trades difficult and unsafe. 2
Bbl/d: Barrels per day
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4.
Environmental risks & Renewable energies
4.1 Environmental risk Nowadays we are really dependent on crude oil and petroleum products to power industry, houses and car. In fact, 80 % percent of global energy directly comes from using petroleum products. The consumption of these non-eco-friendly fuels cause greenhouse gases and pollutants into the atmosphere. These are the main reasons of global warming and climate change. For instance, 4 years ago the consumption of energy generated from these fuels was 89 % in Europe. Although now this data has changed across the years, the usage and the dependence on fossil fuels, crude oil and petroleum products is still high. Burning these materials create carbon dioxide, which is the main greenhouse gas that contributes to create pollution into the atmosphere. This aspect doesn’t only affect the atmosphere but also the temperature. Therefore, the average global temperature could increase by 1 degree Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. (Pyke, 2017) This climate change has a strong and direct impact on the economy of each country in the world. In fact, the global warming is melting ice in the Arctic and Antarctic, which increase the sea level. Rising sea levels impact on agriculture, fishing and consequently the economy. However, the climate change is only one environmental risk, even air pollution generates risks. Air pollution is the main reason of degradation of human health and plant growth (China and India represent a clear example of this problem). Both aspects impact negatively on natural ecosystem, especially the continuing threat of oil spills that devastate ecosystems and the impact of mining on land vitality. (Pyke, 2017)
4.2 Renewable energy The renewable energies represent the solution to reduce oil consumption and consequently the environmental risks generated from it. Examples of renewable
energy
are
solar,
geothermal,
bioenergy,
ocean
power,
hydropower and wind. Currently renewable energies are used in the electricity, cooling, heating and transport sector. This kind of sources supplies 9
in total about 7 % of the world’s energy needs. Nuclear energy, a nonrenewable energy source, provides 6%, while crude oil and fossil fuels are providing 93 % of the world’s energy supplies. (Pyke, 2017) To understand if renewable energy could be the correct solution to reduce the oil consumption, the environmental risk and guarantee the enough energy to the world, we must analyse different aspects. These aspects are: cost; density; scale; energy quality; substitutability; storage. According to research led by Mark Jacobson and Mark Delucchi, the production of energy using wind, water and solar is economically possible. Their research simulated a six year experiment under different weather conditions. The result was no gaps in energy supply. This data is very important because it means that technically this kind of sources guarantee a stable production of energy. However, there are social and political barriers that can slow down the replacement of oil with renewable energy. (Energyx, 2015) Although wind and solar had been developing less than the others type of renewable source, they represent a high-volume production in Europe. Thus, the conversion of all sectors (heating, cooling, industrial processes and transportation) to the use of electric power would be implicit to an allrenewable economy. The use of electric power would reduce total EU energy use by approximately 25 %. (European Commission, Renewable energy, 2017). The key challenge is that most of the renewable energy require specific system for concentration and storage. However, it is important to underline that most storage doesn’t depend on electric storage such as batteries. For example, sensible heat storages are used to heat water or make ice. An important aspect of these storages options is that they are low-cost. Consequently, they represent a good alternative.
4.3 Renewable energy & European Union The EU has already started to implement renewable energy across its countries. However, it should try to set strict rules and directives to impose the use of this eco-friendly sources. The EU’s renewable energy directive 10
already sets an irrevocable target of 20 % renewable energy consumption by 2020. To achieve this result, it is necessary that every country apply the new directives and it is also required at least 10 % of their transports fuel come from green and eco-friendly sources. Another directive is about the oil production due to mitigate the impacts of oil supply shortages. The directive requires all EU member States to keep stocks of crude oil equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption. According to European Environment Agency, the 2015 Paris agreement sets some limits about global warming that forces EU members to keep less than 2 degrees Celsius at pre-industrial levels. However, in my opinion, this limit is still too high and it should be reduced to 1 or 1.5 degrees Celsius. In this process, the European Union embraced climate and energy targets for 2020 and 2030. EU members created an Energy Union that provides sustainable energy, and it has as core business the protection of the environment and the climate. (European Environment Agency, 2017) Energy Union includes the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS). This climate policy try to cut the greenhouse gas emissions and guarantee a safe and secure environment. (European Commission, Energy union and climate, 2016) Moreover, the European Commission is trying to modify the EU Emission Trading System to adapt it to the new CO2 emissions policy. However, EU should introduce new laws to reduce further the oil production and consumption in order to promote renewable energies. Therefore, EU countries should embrace action plans to promote eco-friendly sources. these plans should include targets for heating, cooling, transport and electricity. The EU must continue to be focus on renewables beyond 2020. The target of 20 % is a reasonable target for a short-term but thinking on long-term, EU countries should reach at least 30 % by 2030 and 50 % by 2050. (European Commission, Renewable energy, 2017)
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5.
Key message and Conclusion
This research analysed several aspects about oil dependency in the EU, oil production in the Middle East and its price, and the possibility of reducing the oil imports through the use of renewable energies. Talking about the Middle East, it is clear that the oil production is the core business of this region. In fact, Middle eastern countries represent the biggest crude oil exports during 2016 with shipments valued at $ 310 billion. In other words, they account for 46 % of global crude oil exports. (Workman, 2017) This has led to a thriving economy in the Middle East. Therefore country, such Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), have faced a significant economic growth over the last decade. The Saudi Arabia has an oil-based economy and it possesses about 16% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves. It is the largest exporter of petroleum and it is the main player of OPEC. It has a GDP of $ 646 billion in 2016 with a GDP growth of 3.5 %. The petroleum sector represents 90 % of export earnings, 87% of budget revenues and 42 % of GDP. This country has also looked at diversification of its economy because recently it is started to be focused on power generation and telecommunications. However, the country is still concentrated on oil production and export. (Forbes, 2017) According to International Energy Agency Saudi burns more oil than any other country to generate electricity. In fact, it consumes around 900 000 barrels a day. One possible solution to avoid this problem could be the addition of 700 megawatts from wind and solar energy. This would allow the country to reduce the oil consumption to produce electricity. (Hirtenstein, 2016) The UAE has a gross domestic product (GDP) of $ 370 billion in 2016. This data was mainly achieved through the production and export of oil. The UAE is trying to diversify its economy. A clear example is Dubai, which has far smaller oil reserves, thus its economy is focus also on tourism, one of the bigger non-oil sources of revenue in this country. Unfortunately, UAE’s economy remains dependent on petroleum (oil) revenues because more than 85 % of its economy is based on the oil exports.
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Obviously, petroleum and natural gas continue to play the main role in the economy of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and UAE are not the only ones, because even Iraq and Iran have an economy based on oil and gas exports. This dependence on oil exports and the political instability, which directly involves the governments, make economic growth difficult for these two countries. This aspect can be confirmed to the fact that a business only focused on oil exports cannot guarantee a stable economy. As a matter of fact, the oil price is volatile and the lack of diversification of these countries could be a serious threat to the economy of this region. The solution should be found in investment in new businesses, new products and new markets. In fact, the oil reserves are not unlimited and, thinking in midlong term, it is necessary to discover new sources. As I already discussed through this paper, a possible solution to solve this lack of diversification is the use of renewable and eco-friendly energy sources. These kind of energy sources represent the best solution for several reasons. First of all, thanks to renewable energy, EU lower its dependence on imported oil and makes its production more sustainable. Consequently, there is also a reduction on environmental risks because EU is not forced to import oil. Secondly, renewable energy supply systems are technically and economically feasible and they reduce the environmental risk caused by the oil production. Moreover, as I analysed through the paper, renewable energy is low cost and it can replace oil. Thirdly, renewable energy should also be a solution for the countries of the Middle East to avoid the diversification problem and to boost their economy in a green and eco-friendly way. Moreover, the crude oil is going to run out thus it’s really important for this region to find out a new way to survive without an economy based only on crude oil exports.
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APPENDIX
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
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Source: Eurostat Statistics Oil Production Middle East
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Infographic by: carrington.edu
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