What Next?

What’s Next?

Education policy will be influenced by the substance and rhetoric in the electoral process across

Predictions for the 2022-’23 School Year

After more than two years of upheaval, schools are back on course – but where are they going? And how will they get there? Here, a variety of education experts give us their thoughts on the future of education and schools, everything from grading to marketing. (Hint: tech has the power to change everything.)

states. Affected will be the selection of state superintendents, the use of American Rescue Plan funds, the integration of racial justice and diversity into curriculum, and the growth of charter schools. 2

Social - emotional learning (SEL) has exploded in popularity and use in K-16 education.

SEL strategies and activities will be integrated into instruction throughout the day in many classrooms. 3

Traditional public schools and districts will invest more in marketing to attract

students. Public schools lost 1.1 million students during the 2020-’21 school year. Private school enrollment saw major gains, and parent interest in homeschooling and charter schools increased. Parent surveys indicate that consideration for traditional public schools is declining. 1

Parents will ask districts for more options.

Families and communities have become more deeply involved in education since the pandemic because of the direct impact it has had on them. 6 Students need more personalized learning, but technology might not be the only – and not even main – vehicle through which to provide

Many districts have eliminated D and F grades

and are moving towards skill-based competency grading scales. “While this is still not completely mainstream, this movement that has been on the fringes of education is becoming more front and center than before the pandemic.” 3

it. Smaller class sizes, listening,

connecting to student interests, and building relationships can

lead to better learning. 5

President Biden’s Build Back Better Plan – or some

version of it – will eventually pass. 5

Use of technology has become more widespread

… so yes: technology skills for both teachers and students are critical, but a drawback of more digital learning is less interpersonal communication and interaction. Look for a renewed emphasis on soft skills – communication, teamwork, problem-solving, etc. 4

… and teachers will notice a decrease in students’ attention span resulting from tech’s fast pace. It will challenge them, especially those who use traditional classroom instruction or a lecture format. 4

… making it possible for teachers to incorporate a wider array of interactive activities into their lessons. They can easily invite students to use devices and participate in interactive polls, to respond to questions and take part in learning games. 4

… so equity gaps in this area have begun to be bridged. 3

… so teachers can deliver personalized instruction using digital tools organized in a learning management system. Students can complete readings, assignments and activities at a pace that suits them. 4

… so educators are beginning to imagine and see that instruction can be delivered within any classroom setting. Instruction without boundaries will continue to gain steam as more teachers and schools gain the skills and capacity to do it effectively as education continues to move into the future. 3

1 Angela Brown for Niche, a company that connects colleges and schools with students and families; 2 Kenneth Wong, “What education policy experts are watching for in 2022,” Brown Center Chalkboard, The Brookings Institute; 3 Matthew Rhoads, “Reflecting on education challenges and opportunities of 2021 to help us navigate in 2022 and beyond,” SchoolRubric; 4 Sarah O’Rourke, “9 predictions for the education sector in 2022, RingCentral; 5 Valerie Strauss with Larry Ferlazzo, “9 mostly pessimistic education predictions for 2022 – from a teacher” The Washington Post; 6 Anthony Kim, “5 Major Predictions for 2022,” EdElements.com

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Will There be a Teacher Shortage Crisis?

Many experts say “Yes.”

“There will be a big increase in teacher retirements in the spring/ summer this year, leading to a teacher shortage that will make this school year look like a picnic,” wrote Larry Ferlazzo, an Education Week contributor, author of 12 books on education, and a full-time teacher himself. “Then, in an advance prediction for 2023, the stress created by that staff shortage will result in an equal number of departures the following year.”

For the past decade, Ferlazzo has made annual education predictions for The Washington Post. His most recent column was aptly dubbed “pessimistic.” “This year’s teacher losses, combined with a similarly alarming drop in numbers of students enrolling in teacher-preparation programs, will result in an awful downward spiral.”

Michael Hanson, senior fellow in the Brown Center on Education wrote about the shortage of substitute teachers. “The pandemic has stretched school resources and personnel in many ways,” he wrote on the Brown Center/Brookings Institute blog, “but the biggest and most concerning hole has been in the substitute teacher force – and the ripple effects on school communities have been broad and deep.

“The pandemic is exacerbating several problematic trends that have been quietly simmering for years,” he continued. They include • a growing reliance on long-term substitutes to fill permanent teacher positions; • a shrinking supply of qualified individuals willing to fill short-term substitute vacancies; and • steadily declining fill rates for schools’ substitute requests.

“Many schools in high-need settings have long faced challenges with adequate, reliable substitutes, and the pandemic has turned these localized trouble spots into a widespread catastrophe.”

Federal pandemic-relief funds could be used to meet the short-term weakness in the substitute labor market,

but a long-term fix is needed, said Hanson. Author Matthew Rhoads also spotted troubling teacher trends before the pandemic, “but they are now manifesting into major teacher shortages,” he wrote.

Ferlazzo, in his Washington Post article, notes that school districts with skilled leadership will have already developed “grow your own” and “teacher-residency” programs by next year to recruit new teachers and retain current ones. Rhoads offers additional solutions.

For instance, he suggests that schools systematically increase planning time, increase pay, decrease meetings, personalize professional development, eliminate extra duties, and add support and administration pushback to parents and students. Teachers should consider other options to reduce stress he adds, like not taking work home, creating a NOT-to-do list, focusing on only three top priorities, mitigating multitasking, and minimizing the time spent on grading.

Getting ahead of ourselves

An article in EDweek recently cautioned everyone to just slow down a minute. “Typically, 8 percent of teachers leave the profession every year,” it said. “There’s no national data yet to say whether teachers have left the profession in the past two years at a higher volume, even though multiple recent surveys have sounded the alarm that teachers are preparing to head for the exit.”

While federal teacher turnover data from during the pandemic isn’t available yet, early indicators suggest that teachers are not quitting in droves. “We had this fear in 2020 – it didn’t pan out,” Chad Aldeman told EDweek. The policy director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University noted that some state-level reports showed that teacher turnover may have actually fallen in the fall of 2020. While turnover was a bit higher going into the 2021-’22 school year, it was still in line with historical trends. Aldeman said, “It’s hard to characterize that as a mass exodus.”

EDweek added: “While some onlookers are worried that the real exodus will happen this school year and summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data is not showing significantly higher than normal turnover rates in public education.”