GRAPEFRUIT 2025 MARKETUPDATE
By: Stevan Novakovic
Sr. Economist
The American citrus industry has experienced volatile changes throughout its nearly 200-year history From freezes to canker to hurricanes and now greening, it has been tested and weakened, but nonetheless withstood though in diminished numbers. Much analysis and attention has been centered on total acreage, or number of trees, or overall boxes (all of which is important) but in aggregating the industry as a whole what can be missed is how individual crops within citrus have weathered storms and exist in the present Specifically, for this article: what is going on in with grapefruit? While its exact origins in the Americas are a topic of debate, one popular opinion is that a French Count brought the grapefruit to Tampa Bay, and in its early days shared nomenclature popularly with its relative: the pomelo. After the Second World War spurred the invention of frozen concentrated juice, grapefruit often sat in dispensers directly next to orange and near apple in America’s grade school lunchrooms, college cafeterias, and across motel “continental” breakfast buffets. Over the past thirty years, however, as the nation’s (and especially Florida’s) citrus industry has fended off nature’s detractors, grapefruit has borne a heavy burden, resulting in a relative level of production decline greater than in the orange complex
Nationwide, grapefruit acreage is down more than 85% from its peak in 1980 While it may be hard to fathom that any commercially produced (and popular to eat) sector in the American agricultural spectrum could fall so far, the situation would be even more extreme if not for the relative consistency of producing acreage in Texas and California over the past 25 years From its height in 1997, the Sunshine State’s total land engaged in grapefruit has declined 91 5% Though Florida has always been the country’s dominant state in terms of grapefruit acreage, its share has dropped from 78% in 1991 to 40% in 2024. California’s share has more than tripled since records reporting began in 1978, and Texas has fluctuated between 21% and 35% since the mid-2000s
Adept students of American agricultural history migh take a pause during any discussion on acreage t remind folks that farmers in the USA have bee increasing yields across sectors in mammoth proportions Cows produce more milk, corn and wheat fields ar squeezing out ever increasing numbers of bushels, an our poultry dwarf their fowl ancestors of yesteryear Growers in many crops are yielding more with less, s it’s more relevant to consider how many total grapefru are picked What does this look like? Well, since it apex in 1978, US grapefruit production has decline 88.6%. That is not a typo. Currently, America yields onl about 11% of what it did when the country had 111 million fewer people
If acreage has declined 85% and production nearly 89%, it’s safe to say that yield, on a basis, is dropping at a marginally faster rate (i e farmers are producing less with more) There are agronomic reasons for this outside of the scope of this article, but the main two drivers include greening infections lowering existing tree yields, and younger replantings producing less fruit
Drilling down deeper into the data by state, Florida once again wins the prize for undergoing the greatest detrimental impact by production, down 96 7% from its peak in 1978 As a percentage of total production, the Sunshine State has historically been the heavyweight nationwide, encompassing 94% of the market in 1920, faltering in the 1940s after some large freezes, and then by 1991 at peak acreage the originator of 81% of all grapefruit As recently as 2002, Florida was responsible for about 80% of nationwide production, but that dropped to 21% in 2024 USDA forecasts California is now far and away the greatest producer, eclipsing 50% market share in 2024, Texas at the d t ith 28% f t t l f it d th
To bolster the evidence further, yield in boxes per acre is another beneficial metric for analysis If we know acreage is down but production has decreased by a greater magnitude, yields must be lower This is the case, and Florida’s descent is apparent, as is its impact on national totals Compared with 2004, total boxes per acre in the Sunshine State were down 72% at the end of 2023 (imagine, in comparison, the ramifications of a Midwestern state producing less than a third of the grain per acre it did two decades ago) Nationwide yields have dropped from 461 boxes/acre to 287 boxes/acre over that same time-period, a decline of 38%. Florida yields have been on a marked decline since 2008, Texas has been volatile but downward trending, but California has supported the market by averaging 475 boxes/acre from 2004-2024.
When it comes to the numbers some might say it’s market driven: “Sure, there are problems, but the market ultimately decides – supply and demand ” Sometimes new tastes trend quickly, like the country’s relatively recent appetite for the avocado, or, on the opposite side, fluid milk consumption per capita falling by half since 1970. One can make the argument that consumption habits across populations are typically dynamic, and the United States is no exception Changing demographics of age, ethnicity, income groups, or nation of origin impact consumer purchases In the case of grapefruit, however, it appears for the most part, that there just is not enough product for Americans to produce, driving higher prices “How high?” one might ask… more than nine times higher nationwide since 1997. In 2024 one box of grapefruit cost $18.42 on average across the country, twenty-six years earlier it was $1 93 Florida’s price increase from 2002 through 2024 (a shorter time period but limited by USDA reporting) was elevenfold (from $2 30/box to $25 36/box)
Clearly there has been a substantial increase in prices that corresponded with declines in total production, but on a relative basis how great has been the reaction to that change at the consumer level? The USDA calculates an imperfect but useful measure that models how much of a certain commodity is available to the American populace which can be used as an inferential basis
First: Available commodity supply (production + imports + beginning stocks) - Measurable nonfood use (farm inputs + exports + ending stocks, etc.) = Total annual food supply of a commodity
Second: Total annual food supply of a commodity / U.S. population for that year = per capita availability
What is important then, for this calculation, is unlike the acreage, production, or yield data we have utilized below, it includes estimated imports and exports - helping grant a further insight into consumer demand.
Next, it’s possible to roughly calculate how much purchasers have reacted to lower availability and higher prices using the traditional formula for elasticity of demand: Price Elasticity of Demand (PED) = % ∆ Quantity Demanded / % ∆ in Price
An estimate of PED can be conducted using USDA data points from 2002 and 2024 utilized in the charts above In 2002 the price nationwide was $2 64/box and per capita consumption was 11.63lbs, for 2023 the price was $18.42/box and per capita consumption was 2.19lbs.
This plugged into the formula results in PED = (2.19-11.63 / 11.63) / ($18.42-$2.64) / $2.64) or PED = -0.136.
In its simplest form elasticity measures how sensitive the quantity demanded of a good is to its price. If price elasticity is greater than 1, the good is elastic - if less than 1, it is inelastic. In the case laid out above, the quantity of goods demanded falls only 13% versus a relative change in price (for comparison, an elasticity of -2 would mean demand falls twice as fast relative to price, -0 5 would infer demand falls half as fast relative to price, so for grapefruit demand falls only a little more than 1/7th as fast as price rises)
While the above calculation is back of the envelope, and based on imperfect survey pricing and modeling, it lends striking support for the staying power of consumer support for grapefruit Demand for grapefruit is highly inelastic: it changes very little relative to price swings.
Conclusion:
Grapefruit remains a considerable portion of the overall citrus complex, but has experienced ever-increasing difficulties at a level greater than other crops The California market remains a bright spot on the production side, as do novel concepts in Sunshine State such as the Citrus Under Protective Screening (CUPS) program in Central Florida Acres, production, and yields continue to travel on a negative trajectory, while prices rise Despite consumers having less grapefruit offered to them, and at higher prices, there remains demand for the small quantity of product available Considering past American consumption trends, there exists significant upside demand potential in the grapefruit sphere, especially if increased supply leads to marginally lower prices. Amongst opportunities in the fresh fruit and juice components nationwide and for export, expansion in grapefruit marketing and trade appears ripe for the foreseeable future.
ABOUT THE ECONOMIST
Stevan Novakovic holds an M S in Public Policy from Georgetown University with a focus in econometrics Prior to joining Farm Credit of Central Florida he conducted economic research on agricultural commodities for IHS Market (previously Informa Economics Group), and spent time in hedging/risk management and as a commodities trader for Central States Enterprises, Inc. Stevan also earned an M.A. from Columbia University and undergraduate degrees from the Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina, where he triplemajored in International Business, Global Supply Chain and Operations Management, and Finance.
ABOUT FARM CREDIT OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
Farm Credit of Central Florida is the local association for the region adjacent to the I-4 corridor and serves those in the following thirteen counties: Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Sumter, Lake, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Brevard. Farm Credit borrowers have long enjoyed the benefits of doing business with local offices, where people know their business, their community, and their market. We are headquartered in Lakeland and have brick and mortar locations in Apopka, Brooksville, and Plant City. Our affiliation is with AgFirst Farm Credit Bank in Columbia, South Carolina. Local service with national stability. We are Farm Credit.
STEVAN NOVAKOVIC