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Summer 2010
FINANCIALPARTNER Business Insights for Higher Yields
FarmCreditEast.com
INSIDE: Cover Story Association News Hatfield Farms
3 2, 6-7 9
The Dreaded Budget
10
Washington Update
11
AgEnhancement Grants
12
What Rising Interest Rates Mean to You
CEO’s Message
Managing Interest Rate Risk Bill Lipinski, CEO, Farm Credit East Over the past two years, we have written to you about We offer many risk management tools to help, how the difficult national financial conditions impact including farm accounting, consulting, crop and the interest rate markets. For many years, variable-rate revenue insurance, and credit life insurance. We also pricing on loans has been a low-cost option that added offer various fixed-rate options on loans that may help tremendous value to northeast agriculture. However, you better manage your interest costs in the years the climate of increased risk and volatility in financial ahead. The right balance of fixed versus variable debt markets makes this an opportune time to pause and is unique to each borrower, and there is no one-sizethink about what decisions one should make to fits-all answer. manage interest rate risk at the farm The staff at Farm Credit East is business level. prepared to discuss this with you in a If you take away one thing from this businesslike manner and to explain how letter, it is that the choice to fix a rate on it works. We have provided them with “… the choice to lock your loans is part of a risk management special training and analytical tools to in an interest rate on plan, not a timing decision. It is no differhelp evaluate options. I encourage you to ent than purchasing life insurance, crop your loan is part of a risk make a thoughtful and informed choice. insurance or price protection for product Our staff can assist you in this analysis management plan, not sales. None of these actions necessarily so please contact your local office. We will saves money, but they can offer peace of also add information on the membersa timing decision.” mind. It’s all about the financial flexibility only side of FarmCreditEast.com. Look in your business. If you can withstand a for “Interest Rates” on the Knowledge run-up of interest rates, then you have Exchange tab after logging on. (If you more flexibility to take a chance that floating-rate debt have not yet logged on for the first time, please see will be your least-cost option. If your business has less instructions on the “Create Account” page.) flexibility, you should carefully evaluate the insurance value of a price lock on your interest rate. We will not attempt to forecast interest rates; however, several factors are pretty clear: • Interest rates have been held artificially low for an extended period of time. • Once interest rates begin to change, they have nowhere to go but up. • From a historical perspective, all rates, including fixed rates, are abnormally low. Farm Credit East continues to work hard managing this cooperative in a manner that enables access to funds at the most competitive rates. However, when global money markets begin to move, our cost of funds will move up in lock step, which will result in higher variable interest rates.
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Cover Story
Rising
What Rising Interest Rates Mean to You
Unless you’re Ben Bernanke or another member of the Federal Reserve Board, there’s not much you can do about the future of interest rates. Even so, you may be thinking that — given today’s historically low interest rates and what appears to be an improving economic climate — rates will probably start rising, sooner or later.
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continued from page 3
What do rising interest rates mean to you, as a business owner? Since even the best of the best can’t predict with absolute certainty exactly how long it will take for rates to rise or how much they will increase, many are left wondering whether to hold onto their low variable rate (and for how long) or to fix rates now and get ahead of predicted interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. To help you make the best fixed-versus-variable-rate decision for your business, we invited three top economists who are keenly aware of factors that affect interest rates to stop by the Farm Credit Coffee Shop. We asked them for their take on where interest rates are headed and how customers can effectively manage their interest rate risk. Our distinguished panel included: • Dr. Dave Kohl, professor emeritus, Virginia Tech, Blackburg, Va. • Dr. Ed Seifried, professor emeritus, Lafayette College, Easton, Pa., and executive director of the Sheshunoff CEO Affiliation Programs
investors perceive that the United States does not have a deficit reduction game plan or new engines of growth.” CoBank’s Tim Steidle agreed and then added his calculation for where interest rates are headed. “The Fed will not raise short-term rates for an extended period if the economy remains weak and inflation stays low. But if governments create inflation to get out of excessive debt problems, the world’s central banks could react by raising interest rates over a two- to three-year horizon. If inflation becomes a problem, the Fed will be forced to rapidly increase shortterm rates by 5 or 6 percentage points. While this is not the most likely scenario, more weight has to be placed on this outcome based on trends in overall levels of government debt.” Kohl then summed up the future of interest rates by saying, “It will not be a stable environment. Instead, it will probably be very choppy and volatile, like going through turbulence. Managing volatility on interest rates will be key from a global perspective.”
• Tim Steidle, vice president and treasurer of CoBank, Greenwood Village, Colo. Before discussing their answers, the panel stressed one key point: Today’s historically low interest rates are not here to stay. Rates are so low that they can only head higher in the future. A return to normal interest rates will occur, which means 4 or 5 percentage points higher than they are today.
“My view is that customers have six months on the outside to make this decision about variable versus fixed rates.” — Dr. Ed Seifried professor emeritus Lafayette, Pa.
Factors affecting interest rates To understand the future of interest rates, factors like unemployment, inflation, the debt situation in both the United States and Europe, and the actions of the Federal Reserve are important to keep in mind. According to Dr. Dave Kohl, “Our debt situation and that of the European PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are a concern. We could see upward pressure on interest rates if
How fast will rates rise? Dr. Ed Seifried looks at interest rates from a historical perspective and expects the interest rate environment to switch back to the normal cost of credit. “The normal Fed funds short-term rate over the last 30 years has been 4 or 5 percent. That’s why today’s Fed funds rate* of 0, 1 or 2 percent and the prime rate of 3, 4 or 5 percent will not continue; and why we need to prepare for the return to normal cost of credit, which, to me, are Fed funds rates at 4 to 5 percent and prime rate at 8 to 9 percent. I am not sure how long that will take, but I am sure that low-cost borrowing conditions will not continue for the long term. “Data from the futures market shows that investors give only a 30 percent chance that the Fed funds rate will increase to 1 percent by this time next year. Once interest rates start rising, however, they will go up relatively quickly to 4 or 5 percent. “My view is that customers have six months on the outside to make this decision about variable versus fixed rates. If I were risk-adverse, I would get risk off the table and fix my rates today because rates are low, and if variable rates rise then fixed rates will follow.” continued on page 8
*The Fed funds rate is the interest rate at which a depository institution lends immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution overnight. It is the interest rate that banks charge each other for loans.
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Dr. Ed Seifried professor emeritus
Dr. Dave Kohl
Lafayette College, Easton, Pa.
professor emeritus
Tim Steidle vice president and treasurer of CoBank Greenwood Village, Colo.
Virginia Tech, Blackburg, Va.
“Working with your relationship lender is critical through economic whitewaters that are with us today and will probably be with us for the second decade of this century.” — Dr. Dave Kohl professor emeritus Virginia Tech, Blackburg, Va.
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Association News Meet Our 28 Scholarship Winners! Each Earned $1,500 toward Higher Education Farm Credit East says “hats off!” to our 28 scholarship winners, each aspiring to make a difference in their agricultural communities. This year, students earned a collective $42,000 in scholarships to help them on their way to becoming the Northeast’s future leaders. Our “Investing in Farm Credit East’s Future” scholarship supports students with a diversity of agricultural career aspirations and farm backgrounds from all over our six-state territory and representing each of our 19 branch offices. Congratulations to these deserving students and best wishes for a successful educational experience.
Batavia, N.Y.
Burrville, N.Y.
Jack Jeffres, Wyoming, N.Y. SUNY Cobleskill
Jonathan Schell, Carthage, N.Y. Program: LEAD-NY
Major: Agricultural business Career path: Farmer
Career: Ag team coordinator, Cornell Cooperative Extension of Oswego County
Kerri McKenna, Albion, N.Y. Cornell University
Claverack, N.Y.
Major: Animal science and Ag education Career path: Veterinarian or Ag education teacher
Cassandra Chittenden, Schodack Landing, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Animal science Career path: Dairy industry
Amanda Smith, Medina, N.Y. Cornell University
Cobleskill, N.Y.
Major: Animal science Career path: Dairy communication
Garrett Dudley, Cobleskill, N.Y. SUNY Cobleskill Major: Agricultural business Career path: Ag economist or farm manager
Bedford, N.H. Brandon Haynes, New Boston, N.H. University of Rhode Island Major: Aquaculture and fisheries technology Career path: Fisheries biologist/gear technologist
Rachel Mikrut, Delanson, N.Y. SUNY Morrisville Major: Equine business management Career path: Equine rehabilitator
Jeffrey Moore, Loudon, N.H. Paul Smith’s College
Cortland, N.Y.
Major: Industrial forest operations Career path: Consulting forestry or family farm
Elizabeth Laculli-Leidenfrost, Hector, N.Y. Cortland Community College and Cornell Major: Biological sciences Career path: Viticulture and enology
Bridgeton, N.J. Nicholas Loew, Bridgeton, N.J. Penn State University Major: Horticulture Career path: Nursery management
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Aubrey Whittaker, Whitney Point, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Agricultural education Career path: Adult education
Dayville, Conn.
Hornell, N.Y.
John Pearson, Millbury, Mass. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Jessica May, Wellsville, N.Y. Cornell University
Major: Dairy science Career path: Dairy management
Major: Animal science and Ag science Career path: Dairy producer/handler
Enfield, Conn.
Middleboro, Mass.
James Hunt, Orange, Mass. SUNY Cobleskill
Ethan Dangelo, Walpole, Mass. Stockbridge School of Agriculture
Major: Dairy production and management Career path: Dairy herd manager
Major: Arboriculture Career path: Arboriculture teacher
Flemington, N.J.
Middletown, N.Y.
Timothy Von Thun, Monmouth Junction, N.J. University of Maryland
Devon Mungin, Yorktown Heights, N.Y. SUNY Cortland
Major: Agricultural systems management Career path: Farmer
Major: Undeclared Career path: Equine veterinarian
Geneva, N.Y.
Stephanie Watko, Brookfield, Conn. University of Connecticut
Mackenzie Green, Rushville, N.Y. Finger Lakes Community College Major: Viticulture and wine technology Career path: Agriculture
Heather Genrich, Rochester, N.Y. Ohio State ATI Major: Greenhouse and production Career path: Agriculture
Matthew Sweeney, Appleton, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Agricultural science education Career path: Classroom Ag educator
Greenwich, N.Y. Emily Getty, Hudson Falls, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Master’s; international Ag and rural development Career path: Ag development consultant
Elizabeth Fullerton, Argyle, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Animal science Career path: Dairy marketing
Major: Animal science Career path: Large animal vet; equine reproduction
Potsdam, N.Y. Sara King, Waddington, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Animal science Career path: Dairy nutritionist
Riverhead, N.Y. Henry Kraszewski, Water Mill, N.Y. Delaware Valley College Major: Agribusiness Career path: Potato and vegetable farmer
Samantha Silvestri, Melville, N.Y. SUNY Stony Brook Major: Marine biology Career path: Aquaculture marine biologist
Sangerfield, N.Y. Justin Fuess, Madison, N.Y. Cornell University Major: Animal science Career path: Veterinary medicine
To be a candidate for a 2011 Farm Credit East scholarship, contact your local branch office. An application will be on our website in late February: FarmCreditEast.com Financial Partner • Summer 2010
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Cover Story continued from page 5
Steps to an objective risk management plan According to Tim Steidle, “The decision whether to hold a variable rate or change to a fixed rate should be based on how you can manage your way through increased rates over the long term.” Dave Kohl offered a three-pronged total risk management program to help you make an informed decision: 1. Ask yourself some tough questions • What is your attitude toward volatility? Will you be able to sleep at night if your interest rate increases by 2 percent points? How could the increase impact your business partner or spouse? • How would a 2 percentage point increase impact your working capital and cash reserves? • Do you have a total risk management program that identifies your business’s susceptibility to an increase in interest rates? Are you protected on your revenues as well as on your cost inputs, such as fertilizer, feed and grain?
times and rates. In addition, Tim suggests borrowing on the usual life of assets as part of your overall risk management program. That is, use a fixed rate on longer-term assets, such as land, and a variable rate on those assets that turn over more quickly.
“The decision whether to hold a variable rate or change to a fixed rate should be based on how you can manage your way through increased rates over the long term.” — Tim Steidle vice president and treasurer of CoBank Greenwood Village, Colo.
2. Sensitivity test margins The panel agreed that producers carrying debt on a variable rate need to sensitivity-test (or stress-test) their margins to a rise in interest rates of 6, 8 and 10 percent points as a way to analyze each rate’s impact on their profitability margins and debt-servicing ability. “Sensitivity testing is an objective total risk management tool that takes emotion and the guessing game out of decision making. In my business,” Dave said, “a 2 percentage point rise in interest rates impacted our margin by 16 percent on our creamery and 20 percent on the dairy farm. That’s because each rise in interest rates impacts multiple parts of the balance sheet, including margins, cash flow and assets, such as land.” Tim agreed. “Sensitivity testing helps structure your business, risk profile and profitability margins to withstand short-term rate increases. It checks how much risk you can take on your balance sheet and still remain profitable. We won’t go back to 20 percent rates of the ’70s because we started so much lower, but possible scenarios could send rates into the high single digits, up to 10 percent.” Ed Seifried also agreed. “Ten percent may sound excessive, but who would have thought in 2005, for example, that the Fed funds rate of 0 percent was even a probability?” 3. Consider a blended strategy The panel also agreed that the best decision for most operations may be a blended strategy. The decision does not have to be all or nothing, such as all variable rate or all fixed. A conservative approach may be to fix at several different
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Higher rates are not all bad Ed pointed out that rising rates actually will help the economy because consumers with modest means and those with money in the bank may stand to benefit. Interest on CDs and money market funds should continue to go higher, which could help folks who have seen the interest on their savings shrink to nearly nothing in recent years. In addition, it will give consumers more money to spend at wineries, greenhouses, nurseries, farm stands and other agricultural retail operations. Rising interest rates also mean that the economy is on the mend, which is good news. Farm Credit can help It’s important to know where interest rates are headed and how they will affect your operation. But, as with any business decision, your Farm Credit loan officer or other representative is your best resource. We have the special training and analytical tools to help you work through your risk tolerance, with rising interest rates in mind. “Working with your relationship lender is critical through economic whitewaters that are with us today and will probably be with us for the second decade of this century,” concluded Dave Kohl. Each Farm Credit rep is ready to help you determine: What rising interest rates mean to your business.
Now well into their 30th year in business, Marcia and Bruce Hatfield are proud to add their son, Christopher, to their ownership team, and equally proud to have been able to expand their dairy operation … their way … with the help of Farm Credit.
“Our son, Christopher, wanted to join the business, but with a tired barn, and machinery and equipment in need of updating, it was time to expand,” says Marcia Hatfield, who owns Hatfield Farms LLC in Scipio Center, N.Y., with her husband, Bruce — and now, their 27-year-old son, Chris. As any proud parent knows, it’s wonderful when the next generation is interested in and fully prepared to take their well-earned place in the family business. “Chris’s enthusiasm, youth and work ethic are a really nice addition to our team,” says Marcia. “We are pleased to have him join us as a partner.” The right timing Marcia explained that the family had considered this investment two years ago, but higher interest rates coupled with the high cost of cows and building materials made the project unaffordable at that time. Last year, the family pushed a pencil again, and found that lower prices meant the timing was right for expansion. After several years of research, the Hatfields chose a robotic milking system to help manage a larger operation without hiring help. “We’ve always run our operation with just the three of us,” says Marcia, “and we wanted to stay that way, rather than hiring outside labor.” The family upgraded the farm with a new 250-cow freestall barn and a fully automated milk house with robotic milkers. They then tripled their cow numbers, from 90 cows to 305 cows, including about 90 replacements and calves.
“It has been quite a leap, but we’re still standing,” Marcia laughed. “While new technology sounds good, it requires dedication to learn its full potential. We’re used to hard work and are prepared for the challenge, but we’re pushed to keep up. The bottom line is that our jobs have changed.” The right lender “Farm Credit’s support and guidance are awesome,” says Marcia. “We appreciate that John Fessenden, our loan officer, was open to learning the new robotic technology and willing to take a risk on our vision.” John advised the family about how the change in their business would expose their operation to dynamics that require closer monitoring of their financial profile, such as quarterly and monthly status reports of profitability and year-to-year comparisons to check their budget position. He also introduced Marcia to an electronic spreadsheet for tracking expenses and to Farm Credit’s Dave Oestreich for record-keeping and tax preparation. “I’ve always kept a close watch over our budget,” Marcia said. “That’s why I like using an electronic spreadsheet that more clearly spells out where every dollar is going. In addition, with all the rules inherent in a larger operation, I gladly turned to Dave Oestreich for help. I feel much more comfortable that someone who works with financial information daily is watching over our records and taxes, which have become more complicated with our LLC.” At Farm Credit, we’re proud to be financial partners with the Hatfields, and we send our heartiest congratulations on their expansion.
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C
onsultant’s orner
Budgeting from the Bottom (Line!) Up Turning potential into profit Erin S. Pirro, business consultant Ready to turn potential into profit? Then perhaps you’re ready to work on the dreaded “b” word … budget. Many business owners give budgets a bad rap. But a budget is nothing more than your plan for the big game. It helps you focus on offense and defense while remembering your end goal … to win the game by being profitable. Remember that things don’t always go according to plan. Who thought Josh Beckett, the $68 million pitcher, would give up two consecutive home runs in the Red Sox Opening Night game this season? Sometimes everyone needs to call a reliever from the bullpen. A budget works for every business, large and small. You can use a budget to calculate how long it will take you to reach your savings goal, for example, such as for replacement equipment, a new facility or even an expansion. In addition, many business owners use budgets to determine the amount, source and timing of working capital as well as the payback period. A new way to budget I’d like to challenge you to look at a budget differently by starting with the bottom line, which is the most important part of a budget. A roomful of growers can all tell me their sales, almost to the dollar. But very few can say, with certainty, how much of that money they “kept.” Why is that so important? Because being profitable means that you’re winning the game. Here’s a new way to work on a budget: • Start with the most important line — the bottom line. • Determine the amount needed for the coming year, including loan payments, replacement equipment, working capital, living expenses and retirement savings. And don’t forget income taxes. • Next, tackle your expenses: overhead (fixed expenses) and cost of goods sold (variable expenses). Use last year as a guide or the previous two if last year was unusual.
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• Discuss the plan with your key people. They’re much more likely to be on board when they’re involved in the decision-making. With a clear understanding of the business’s goals, your team will know where they’re going, how they’ll get there and how they can measure their progress. • Add expenses to your required profit and you’ve got your sales goal for the year. Make sure that your projected cost of goods is realistic based on your sales goal, both in dollars and volume. With your sales goal in place, you can put a plan in action. New marketing strategies, cross-selling opportunities and added services are areas where your team can really stretch their creative muscles. Does the plan require doubling sales? How will you accomplish that? Can you do it in one year? If not, rework the plan, such as adding stricter cost control measures or seeking new opportunities. Give your plan some time to work. If you get stuck, give us a call. Farm Credit’s business consultants can help you turn your potential into profit by budgeting from the bottom (line!) up.
e t a d p U Washington The Federal Deficit: It’s Time for Political Courage Bob Smith, senior vice president for public affairs I admit it; I’m a deficit hawk. I don’t like increased spending that leads to government deficits and although I like tax cuts, I don’t want them if we can’t pay for them. The budget deficit is not a partisan issue. Democrats and Republicans share responsibility for government spending beyond our means and growing our deficit to levels not seen since World War II. As the private sector struggles to get its footing, increased government borrowing threatens to reduce investment and economic growth. In FY 2009, the federal government collected $2.1 trillion in revenue and spent almost $3.5 trillion. While some expenditures relating to economic stimulus and increased assistance to state governments will expire, projected deficits for the foreseeable future remain at or near $1 trillion per year. In 2009, the overall federal deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 9.9 percent, the highest since 1945. Under the president’s budget estimates for FY 2010, the deficit will be more than $1.5 trillion or 10.6 percent of GDP. This has implications down the road as we pay more interest in the future. (Net interest payments accounted for 1.3 percent of GDP in 2009, and are projected to rise to 3.2 percent in 2020!) Total debt levels have risen dramatically. At the end of FY 2009, the debt ceiling was $11.9 trillion. The ceiling for 2010 increased to $13.2 trillion. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service notes that perpetual debt growth in excess of the rate of economic growth is an inherently unstable situation. A footnote in the report discusses the situation if investors are unwilling to continue to increase lending to the federal government: “… in theory should the government be unable to find private sector buyers for its securities there would be two possible outcomes. First, the federal government would simply be unable to meet all of its obligations. Second, and the more likely of the two, rather than allow the federal government to default, the Federal Reserve would buy those securities. Should it come to that, the threat would not be one of government insolvency, but rather of inflation.” [My concern is that inflation equals higher interest rates and less buying power.]
It is easy to criticize Congress and the president for allowing deficits to get so big. They simply have not been willing to make the hard decisions necessary for a balance. Often this head-in-the sand mentality reflects all our views: We want spending for the programs we like and tax cuts that benefit us. While I am not holding my breath for solutions, recently Congress and the administration took two actions of note: • Congress enacted PAYGO legislation, which requires that new mandatory spending and revenue legislation not increase the deficit. While this is helpful, it does not reduce the deficit, and the PAYGO bill included exclusions for certain additional expenditures and tax cut extenders. • President Obama and congressional leaders established the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, which is charged with recommending means to balance the budget, excluding the interest rate on debt, by 2015. The commission, which will report in December, is also charged with proposing ways to meaningfully improve the long-run fiscal outlook, including changes to address growth in entitlement spending. What can we do? We clearly need to do more to challenge our elected officials, especially those seeking election in November. Why not attend a local congressional candidate meeting and ask: • Are you willing to buck your party leadership if it proposes more spending or tax cuts that are not paid for with spending reductions? • Are you willing to cut spending, including entitlement programs, even when it is politically unpopular? • How do you propose to balance the budget?
For more background • Congressional Research Service: www.cbo.gov/budget/budget.cfm • U.S. General Accountability Office: www.gao.gov
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FINANCIAL PARTNER is for the customers, employees and friends of the Northeast Farm Credit Region. Farm Credit is a farmer-owned lending cooperative serving the farmers, fishermen and timber operators in New England, New York and New Jersey. Part of a national system, Farm Credit is a full-service lender dedicated to the growth and prosperity of agriculture.
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HOW TO REACH US: Whether you want to praise us, complain, ask our advice or just let us know what’s on your mind, we’d like to hear from you. WRITE: Karen Murphy, Editor, Farm Credit, 240 South Road, Enfield, CT 06082-4451. CALL: 860.741.4380. E-MAIL: karen.murphy@farmcrediteast.com Copyright © 2010 by Farm Credit East, ACA. All rights reserved. Farm Credit is an affirmative action, equal opportunity employer.
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AgEnhancement
Grants
Education Is #1 for Grant Recipients The Northeast Farm Credit associations and CoBank recently awarded $30,000 to 12 dedicated nonprofit Ag organizations as part of the Farm Credit Northeast AgEnhancement Program. Here’s a look at two of the recent award recipients. Both organizations take great pride in spreading agriculture’s message through various forms of education.
• Educating the nonfarm community. Eden Regional Farm Museum will use its $1,500 grant to host AgDay on October 2 in Eden, N.Y. The day will promote local food production in a fivecounty area while educating the nonfarm community on what it takes to grow fresh food for families. Here’s Jerry Jahreis and Carol Lewis (Eden Regional Farm Museum Board members) along with George Zittel (museum president) accepting an AgEnhancement grant from Krista Snell, of Farm Credit’s Batavia, N.Y., office.
• Broadening Ag career horizons for teens. The New Hampshire 4-H Foundation will use its $3,000 grant to sponsor a trip for 25 teens from Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire. The 2010 4-H Agricultural Career Trip is an experience-based educational opportunity for teens to explore career opportunities. Here’s Michael Young, Extension educator for New Hampshire 4-H Foundation, accepting his organization’s AgEnhancement check from Mike McPhail, of Farm Credit’s Bedford, N.H., office.
AgEnhancement Grants since 1996 AgEnhancement Grant details Bob Smith: 800.327.6588 AgEnhancement@FarmCreditEast.com Proposal submission deadlines: April 1, August 1, December 1.
Total grant dollars: Total projects supported:
$1,112,656 418