Farmers Weekly NZ December 2 2024

Page 1


Scope 3 work is Fonterra’s ticket to ride

Bryan Gibson NEWS Emissions

FONTERRA says sustainability and emissions reduction are being demanded right across its value chain, from its banks to customers and consumers, and opting out isn’t an option.

Chief executive Miles Hurrell told the Farmers Weekly In Focus podcast that its Scope 3 emissions programme is vital if the cooperative wants to continue to supply key customers.

If you’re not willing to commit to something significant in a Scope 3 context on farm emissions, you’ll be sidelined by some of these big players long term.

“It starts with those multinationals, and you referred to Nestlé, but there are a number of other multinationals that aren’t far behind. The whole finance sector is demanding these things as well, so access to capital, both for Fonterra, but also our farmers

long term, will be impacted by this.

“It’s something that very much has been being pulled by customers and markets and the finance sector.”

Hurrell said in conversations with farmers they highlighted a desire for more value to be gained from better environmental performance.

“They’d like to see a bit more value extracted as a result of that. I get that and we’re working hard in that regard.

“But it is becoming, very quickly, a ticket to the game. If you’re not part of it, if you’re not willing to commit to something significant in a Scope 3 context on farm emissions, you’ll be sidelined by some of these big players long term.”

Despite some influential farming commentators saying New Zealand’s highly efficient systems should mean its place as a valued supplier is secure, Hurrell said that is not the case as other dairy producers are investing heavily in mitigation technologies that will see us surpassed.

Abandoning customers like Nestlé for others without sustainability demands simply isn’t an option either, he said.

“It’s a question that comes up often. Maybe we don’t need Nestlé, is a question that I get asked. Why don’t we go to the next-tier customer? You’ve got to remember

Continued page 3

Little black calf a milestone for LIC

A 540-strong Friesian herd near Te Puke in Bay of Plenty has welcomed a special calf. Calf No 301, on the farm of John Cameron, was LIC’s millionth dairy animal to be genotyped since state-of-the-art DNA analysis began in the industry in 2008.

NEWS 4

SECTOR

Plantain research review shows it is on track to meet objectives. NEWS 3

Connoley calls for seed sector rationalisation

Exploring the concept of a revised industry body for the seed sector is key in adapting to the evolving landscape of the primary sector, says Seed and Grain New Zealand chair Charlotte Connoley.

ARABLE 16

Could Alliance join SFF in adopting hybrid ownership structure? NEWS 7

Farmers will be sorry to see Leonie Guiney go, says Alan Emerson.

OPINION 15

Miles Hurrell Fonterra

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GAPS: Dr Bill Kaye-Blake says the government’s proposed regulatory changes on gene technologies do not include a regulatory impact statement, economic assessment or cost-benefit analysis. STORY P8

The amount of pork imported into New Zealand is rising, with much of it from countries that permit pig farming practices which are illegal here.

Data from NZPork shows that, between January and September this year, imported pork accounted for nearly 62% of pork consumed in NZ. The country imported a total of 66,686 carcase weight equivalent tonnes (CWE) of pork.

Synlait has increased its forecast base milk price by 50 cents to $9.50/kg MS for the 2024-2025 season.

The increase follows recent strengthening in global commodities prices since Synlait’s last update on October 10. It comes after Fonterra lifted its forecast midpoint from $9 to $9.50/kg MS and narrowed its forecast range from $8.25-$9.75 per kg MS to $9$10/kg MS earlier this month.

News in brief Pork imported Forecast up Halter on top

Halter has taken first place on this year’s Deloitte Fast 50 index, with 1539% growth over three years.

The annual index ranks businesses experiencing rapid revenue growth over three years. The virtual fencing company was hailed for expansion into the United States and Australia and changing farmers’ lives, Deloitte said.

A2 dividend

The a2 Milk Company has established a dividend policy for the first time in its history.

The new policy targets a payout ratio range of 60%-80% of net profit after tax excluding non-recurring and other items. It will be implemented immediately, with the first interim dividend expected to be declared in February next year based on the company’s first-half 2025 result.

Back in 1860, exporting meat to the other side of the world seemed about as easy as nailing gravy to the ceiling But a few determined kiwis took the bull by the horns and now our grass-fed beef and lamb is sought-after all around the globe

At AFFCO, we see the same pioneering spirit alive and well in farmers today We’re playing our part too – exploring every opportunity to take New Zealand’s finest farm-raised products to the world

‘Plantain proving its N-leaching worth’

Staff reporter

N INDEPENDENT

Areview of DairyNZ’s plantain research programme says it is on track to achieve its objectives, while the use of plantain to reduce nitrate leaching is being backed by farmers and regulators.

The review said that the scientific inquiry is of a high standard and leading to strong evidence that supports the adoption of plantain as a tool to reduce nitrate leaching.

It comes after a scientific review published in the New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research earlier this year indicated aspects of plantain’s ability to absorb nitrates and to mitigate losses are suspect, and said there could be better alternative species worthy of further research work.

DairyNZ chief science adviser Bruce Thorrold said the independent review confirmed that the evidence strongly supports Ecotain plantain reducing nitrate leaching, helping to improve waterways.

“Including plantain at 2030% of a grazed ryegrass/clover mixed pasture has resulted in average annual nitrogen leaching reductions of 26% at Massey over four years, and 23% at Lincoln over two years. Pasture and milk production has been similar

Continued from page 1

that we’re already in the next-tier customer, and we’re in the tier customer after that, and we’re in the tier customer after that. We’re quite a significant player in the international market.

“If we were to decide that Nestlé was not a partner we want to work with, we very quickly skip to countries and markets and

from pastures with and without plantain,” he said.

“Prior and current research shows us plantain is a high-impact and viable pasture-based option for reducing nitrate leaching.

“There are other pasture species that should be explored, but we are currently focusing on plantain. This focus gives us the opportunity to explore the ways that pasture plants can impact the nitrogen cycle,” said Thorrold.

“There’s more research to be done. The review confirmed the need to understand the observed soil mechanisms and how they affect N leaching in different soils and climates, so these effects can be included in OverseerFM, and be recognised in farmers’ N budgets,” he said.

Plantain is now recognised as an N leaching mitigation option by regional councils in Canterbury, Horizons, Waikato, Southland and Bay of Plenty, where N leaching limits are in place.

Welcoming the review, Tim Davie, science director at Environment Canterbury, said it’s great to see progress in the science backing the effectiveness of plantain.

“ECan recognises plantain as a valuable tool for helping farmers meet nutrient limits and minimise their environmental impact,” he said.

Stephanie Fraser from Bay of Plenty Regional Council said that Lake Rotorua is subject to strict

customers that are, quite frankly, a little bit undesirable. You come with a country risk, sovereign risk.

“In some of those countries they have fluctuating currencies, they have unstable governments.”

Hurrell said given the world is going through a time of instability at the moment, both economically and geopolitically, it is critical for the co-op and the government to

nutrient management regulations aimed at reducing nitrogen levels to improve water quality of Lake Rotorua.

“The farming community is progressively embracing plantain, with about three-quarters of dairy farmers in the catchment modelling a transition to the use of plantain by 2032,” she said.

The council recognises the impact of plantain in OverseerFM.

“Plantain is proving to be a valuable tool for nitrogen mitigation. It helps farmers comply with nutrient regulations, while maintaining productivity. As farmers continue to navigate the complexities of nutrient management, plantain seems to offer a promising solution that aligns with environmental and regulatory goals,” said Fraser.

Lake Rotorua catchment farmer Richard Fowler introduced plantain to help meet nutrient management regulations. Working toward his 2032 limit of 40kg N/ ha of nitrogen loss below the root zone, plantain has been a key tool in reducing nitrogen leaching on his farm.

“I have been broadcasting plantain seed over the farm with fertiliser applications over the past five years. I didn’t see much in the first summer, but it started showing up in the autumn and the following season. It seems to be cost effective and working well in our catchment,” said Fowler. Work with partner farms across

be very careful about how they position themselves.

Having a strong balance sheet is key to negotiating the next few years and with a strong set of results in the past year and a healthy milk price forecast, with a mid-point of $9.50/kg MS, Fonterra is in a good place, he said.

Key to that is sticking to what the co-op does best – turning New Zealand milk into high-

the country shows that plantain can be introduced into new and existing pastures. Maintaining target plantain levels requires ongoing re-seeding by direct drilling or broadcasting the seed, for example with fertiliser, every one to three years.

Fowler’s recommendation to other farmers is to consider plantain and to try adding it to their fertiliser applications. OverseerFM modelling shows a 6kg/ha (14%) reduction in nitrogen leaching from the 20% plantain pastures, which contributes significantly towards Fowler’s target.

The mid-programme review

quality ingredients, which is why the divestment of the consumer brands is moving forward.

Hurrell said Fonterra’s ability to significantly grow those brands in high-value markets is limited.

“We just believe a different lens on those brands, a different ownership structure, could take those to the next level. And that’s not diminishing the work that our team have put into them.

SUPPORT: DairyNZ chief science adviser Bruce Thorrold says an independent review confirmed that the evidence strongly supports Ecotain plantain reducing nitrate leaching, helping to improve waterways.

provides an independent assessment of the programme (a seven-year research initiative led by DairyNZ and using PGG Wrightson Seeds Ecotain) and provides recommendations for future direction and funding priorities.

The funding partners are the Ministry for Primary Industries, DairyNZ, PGG Wrightson Seeds and Fonterra. The Plantain Potency and Practice midprogramme review was undertaken by an independent assessment panel including Adam Barker (Scarlatti), James Allen (AgFirst), and retired scientist Dr Mark Shepherd.

“But we’re quite narrowly focused on dairy and if you want to really take it to the next level, maybe you need to go and expand beyond that. And I just don’t think that’s what our farmers want, if I’m honest.”

MORE:

Listen to the full interview on Farmers Weekly In Focus wherever you get your podcasts.

Whatever

Photo: File

Trade negotiators on lookout for next market

RADE Minister Todd

McClay says he wants to hear from primary sector businesses on where they think the government’s trade negotiators should be deployed next.

The successful conclusion of talks with the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council little more than a month apart means the government has already been able to knock off two of the four negotiations it had targeted.

That leaves India and the South American countries of the Pacific Alliance, but these have been harder going.

Despite the government having targeted a deal with India, there is still no start date for talks as dairy market access remains a

major stumbling block.

Political tensions between Peru and Mexico have stopped talks with the Pacific Alliance in their tracks.

“With the Pacific Alliance it is not clear to me that that can be done this term,” McClay said.

Colombian dairy market access would be the major prize for New Zealand should it be admitted to the four-country alliance.

NZ already has some form of preferential access to the markets of the three remaining Pacific Alliance countries via their membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

The CPTPP remains a work in progress with Indonesia and South Korea at the front of the queue to join, and China and Taiwan also hovering.

McClay said there is still some work to do to put the finishing

touches on the UAE and GCC deals but once that is done there will be an opportunity to look at what else negotiators at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade can get their teeth into.

“In the first quarter of next year, once we get some of the signings underway, I would be very interested in hearing from the business community where they are seeing barriers or where they would like to see us putting some effort in,” McClay said.

The government is also interested in looking at existing agreements to see how NZ could “get more out of them”.

That could include more enforcement action where NZ judges trading partners not to be upholding their obligations or through upgrades of agreements to improve market access.

“We need to judge the success of NZ’s trade policy just as much on how much extra we sell as how

many trade deals we do,” McClay said.

And despite zero progress in either fixing its dispute settlement system or tackling a trillion dollars in global agricultural subsidies at the biennial meeting of World Trade Organisation trade ministers earlier this year, McClay said he will be directing his officials to put maximum effort in again ahead of the 2026 meeting.

Asked whether that could be wasted effort given that it is

incoming United States president Donald Trump’s previous refusal to rubber-stamp appointments to the WTO’s appeals body that sidelined the organisation’s role as global trade policeman, McClay disagreed.

“When [Trump] was there last time the US had very clear views of the things that needed to change ... and I and our government share some of those concerns.

“I think the US will be able to play in role in sorting those things out.”

Kind weather makes for ideal dairy mating

FINE weather and plentiful feed throughout most of New Zealand have led to some of the best mating conditions for dairy farmers in recent years.

The country’s two main genetics companies, CRV and LIC, have both reported excellent results.

Early data has shown a 4.3% increase on non-return rates compared to last year across the country, CRV national sales and marketing manager Julia Baynes said.

The non-return rate for cows mated with sexed semen is up 8.4% year on year, which she called “outstanding”.

It shows Baynes that these cows were cycling and were well managed by the farmer throughout mating. Likewise, LIC territory manager

Matt Ward said their initial data showed 81.7% submission rates across New Zealand, which was 1.9% ahead of this time last year.

“The whole industry can be happy with that – the effort from the farmers, the AB technicians, the AB managers and the ground staff. It’s a fantastic result for this time of year.”

My sense is that it feels like farmers are the most positive that I have seen for a couple of years.

Julia Baynes CRV

A high submission rate will result in a high six-week in-calf rate and low not-in-calf rate, which translates into a more compact calving spread, more days

in milk the following season, and fewer empty cows to be culled.

There have also been no semen batch issues like there were last year, he said.

The exception is Southland, which faced tough, wet conditions along with health issues that included an outbreak of salmonella along with mastitis and lameness, which are more common during bad weather.

Baynes said mating got underway in Southland on November 1, and non-return and submission rate data are not yet available.

“However, the news that we are hearing from the field and through farmers is that because farmers took quick action around pulling animals back to OAD milking and trying to look after them better through that period, the submission rates are looking better than we would have hoped.

“That would be the one region that has struggled this year, but across the rest of the country –Northland, Waikato, Taranaki, Canterbury – we’re hearing lots of positivity in the field.”

Sexed semen usage is also up as more farmers use it to mate the top 20% of their herd for replacement cows, using conventional semen along with using more beef genetics throughout the mating period rather than just at the tail end.

Little black calf is one in a million for LIC

A 540-strong

herd

Te Puke in Bay of Plenty welcomed a special calf in the late winter of this year.

Calf No 301 on the farm of John Cameron was LIC’s millionth dairy animal to be genotyped since state-of-the-art DNA analysis began in the industry in 2008.

“Our farm! This farm? That calf? What are the chances?” said Jamie Iggulden, a contract milker on Cameron’s farm.

“It’s a little black calf, and it’s running around in our paddock out the front. It’s happy and healthy, and you wouldn’t think it’d even blink an eye at the thought it’s the millionth one.”

Mark Julian, LIC general manager of operations and service, said 1 million was an important milestone for the co-operative.

It’s running around in our paddock out the front. It’s happy and healthy.

Jamie Iggulden Te Puke

In 2008 LIC was New Zealand’s first dairy genetics supplier to use genomic technology on behalf of its farmers when it genotyped about 5000 sires (historical and active sires at that time).

By 2015 LIC had genotyped 35,000 New Zealand dairy animals, the majority of which were cows. These animals also provided phenotypic information, which helped LIC’s research team determine what genes could be associated with good (or poor) breeding and milking performance, including traits other than production, Julian said.

Today there were 1 million genotypes that contributed to the dataset, representing about 35 million DNA data points, he said. The data helps deliver more accurate breeding values (genomic evaluations) for farmers.

“And with tens of thousands of

more calves born this season, that 1 million milestone will continue to be rapidly built upon.”

Genotyping is a familiar scientific technology among many of New Zealand’s topperforming dairy farmers.

Soon after birth, LIC uses genotype information to predict how much of a desirable, or undesirable, trait a calf has inherited from its sire (father) and dam (mother).

The accumulation of this early trait information allows the farmer to get a more accurate Breeding Worth index earlier for a calf.

This is useful to farmers because it increases their odds of retaining desirable calves for

future use in their herd, as older milking cows are replaced by a new generation of emerging heifers.

In turn, this helps farmers fasttrack herd performance.

“Genotyping a young calf essentially provides the farmer with the same information as that of a farmer who’s put their milking heifer through three herd tests,” Julian said.

“The power of genotyping a young calf is that a farmer has essentially the same reliability of information as they would have after a cow’s first milking season. It gives you that information now to make the best breeding decisions for your herd so much earlier.”

Gerald Piddock NEWS Livestock
Friesian
near
TOUCHES: Trade Minister Todd McClay says there is still some work to do to put the finishing touches on the UAE and GCC deals.
Photo: File
REPLACE: Sexed semen usage is also up as more farmers use it to mate the top 20% of their herd for replacement cows. Photo: File

Feds, PM kick off tour to restore confidence

FARMERS are not villains and are deeply valued by the government for what they do, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says.

The sector is incredibly important and is a big economic driver for the country, he told a crowd of more than 300 at Mystery Creek during the Restoring Farmer Confidence Tour organised by Federated Farmers.

“You were the sector that powered us out of covid, you were the sector that powered us out of the GFC and we need you to power us out of this recession we have had for three years.”

The meeting is the first of three being held across the country. In opening the meeting, Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford said it had been a tough year across all farming sectors with many farmers struggling financially.

“Farmer confidence is at an

all-time low, which is a real challenge.”

That confidence is more than just mental health, but the ability of farmers to see into the future and have the willingness to invest in their farms to grow their businesses for the next generation, he said.

He also hopes farmers will be proud of their profession again.

“For the first time in a long time, farmers are being heard and being respected,” Langford said.

Luxon the took the stage, taking aim at the previous government, claiming it had turned New Zealand into an obstruction economy where it is hard to get anything built.

“This is not the New Zealand we grew up with.”

While “smart regulation” is important, the economy had become bound in red tape and the past 12 months had been spent getting rid of that.

He said he was told by farmers they were spending 25-30% of their week on administration.

That and the amount of duplicate

work farmers had to do often for local and central government was “insane”.

The last government “went to war” on farmers by introducing 23 different regulations and the government is determined to remove that regulatory overload, he said.

While he is optimistic about the future, he also acknowledged people are doing it tough.

“Everyone in this room will understand we inherited a hell of a mess from the last lot, and we are now in a deep turnaround job.”

Agriculture Minister Todd McClay told the audience that the government’s relationship with farmers had changed from fighting and arguing to persuading and agreeing.

“The war against farmers has ended. It’s simple, we trust farmers and we trust you to do the right thing. You know more about your land that anyone ever will and it’s our job to have good smart rules that focus on an outcome, not just a process.”

He outlined the progress the

government has made over the past year and what was to come.

“Largely that list I have read out it took six years for the Labour Government to enforce that upon you. In our first year of

government, we have either got that out of the way or underway and from the middle to the end of next year it will be changed and we will be able to continue to build that trust and grow rural NZ.”

Zespri sees sweeter kiwifruit future, despite volatility

ZESPRI’S five-year outlook report presents upbeat prospects for the sector through to the end of the decade, albeit with some cautions around a volatile global environment and continuing challenges of illegal plantings in China.

The report notes that Zespri continues to experience a level of demand for SunGold fruit running ahead of supply and remains positive about consumers’

preparedness to pay a premium for the branded fruit.

Zespri kiwifruit fall into the “top 3” fruit choices in 10 out of 15 markets, with demand outrunning supply on both locally grown and globally sourced Zespri-branded fruit.

SunGold is expected to remain the main driver of demand, with supply increasing from 130 million trays this year to 153 million by 2030. The report also picks ongoing strength for the traditional Green fruit based off its health and nutritional attributes. However, Green volumes are

anticipated to fall from about 60 million trays this year to 50 million by 2030 as growers convert to other varieties.

That reduction is expected to keep some tension in Green returns, with value per tray anticipated to rise by 28% between now and 2030 to $9 a tray.

SunGold is expected to lift by 19% to $12.50 a tray and RubyRed by a massive 32% to $16.50 a tray.

But despite the optimistic outlook, the report does not shy away from the pressing issue of illegally grown Chinese SunGold fruit, known as UAG3 plantings.

The unauthorised plantings have grown to cover an estimated 8,387 hectares, producing about 40 million trays. That area almost eclipses NZ’s area of 8900ha.

Of the 40 million trays, Zespri estimates 20 million are equivalent to its premium Class 1 fruit in quality.

The fruit is being sold under competing brands in China at 60-70% of the Zespri value. Some is also sold as counterfeit Zespri-branded product, the most lucrative outlet for it.

It has not proven possible to pull these plantings out but Zespri

has been pursuing legal channels to curb the growth in additional plantings, including prosecuting three people selling $700,000 worth of fruit.

The unauthorised plantings have grown to cover an estimated 8,387ha, producing about 40 million trays.

Zespri five-year outlook report

VALUE: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the podium where he told the audience at Mystery Creek he greatly values their contribution to the economy.
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Alliance’s future as co-op on a knife edge

Neal

COULD the Alliance Group go the same way as Silver Fern Farms and adopt a hybrid ownership structure?

Given current farm economics and simple mathematics, raising the $100 million to $150m in new shareholder capital sought by the co-operative will be challenging.

Alliance handles about 10 million livestock carcase equivalents each year, of which about 70% are sheep.

It is currently deducting from its 4500 supplier shareholders $1/ head for each lamb, sheep and bobby calf it processes along with $12 for cattle and $4 for deer until the required shareholding is reached.

At that rate it will take several years to achieve its target, which could prove too long.

Had the co-operative gone to shareholders three years ago before the economic and weather gods conspired against it, the outcome could have been quite different.

Southland Federated Farmers meat and fibre sector chair Dean Rabbidge said Alliance’s timing could not be worse, given low stock prices and the awful spring, and there is some anger the board did not move earlier.

Toby Williams, a federation board member, said Alliance must remain viable but low returns last year and weather conditions in Southland are not engendering shareholder support.

“It’s a tough ask when shareholders have challenges to their own business and Southland has had a terrible spring.”

Williams said trading conditions

will only worsen for the meat sector as sheep numbers continue to fall.

He would like to see greater collaboration such as exists with The Lamb Company, which processes and distributes meat throughout North America for Alliance, Silver Fern Farms and ANZCO.

Alliance chief executive Willie Wiese has previously suggested companies could process stock for each other to reduce cartage costs.

An analysis of annual reports reveals Alliance was tracking strongly in 2017, reporting a $20m net profit after tax (NPAT) with core debt of $19m and $78m in inventory.

Just a year later NPAT had fallen to $8m, debt had reached $72m and inventory had ballooned to $111m.

The turnaround was due in part

to necessary capital investment to replace an obsolete information technology system that eventually cost $80m, and upgrading machine guards and ammonia management as part of health and safety.

It’s a tough ask when shareholders have challenges to their own business and Southland has had a terrible spring.

Toby Williams Federated Farmers

The NPAT for the next four years was $21m, $27.4m, $40m and a record $117m in 2022.

But debt sat above $100m over the period and inventory was also high at more than $100m before

reaching $167m in 2022.

Turnover had grown from $1.4 billion in 2016 to a peak of $2.2bn in 2022 but shareholder equity fell from 70% in 2017 to 48% last year.

Revaluation of inventory following the 2023 collapse of the Chinese market was one reason for that year’s $70m loss after tax.

That was followed up this year by a $95.8m loss after tax, which included $48.2m in one-off costs for the closure of its Smithfield plant.

Debt was $161m in 2023 and grew to $221m in 2024, but inventory fell from $152m in 2023 to $108m.

Chair Mark Wynne has previously said Alliance has the support of its banking syndicate.

A group of shareholders is trying to mobilise fellow shareholders to ensure Alliance remains a cooperative and Pāmu Farms has

companies

for

announced it will be participating in the capital raise.

But if that fails, Alliance has recruited Craigs Investment Partners to assess options for outside capital through a partial or complete sale.

SFF has also offered to assist with what it calls facilitating a NZ Inc solution, but has not detailed what that could be.

Wynne has said it has interest from potential outside investors. There is speculation that includes a Saudi Arabian-backed bid. Wynne has consistently declined to identify interested parties.

At woolshed and video meetings Wynne has urged shareholders to remain loyal, saying that supporting the co-operative will put it in a strong position for whatever option the board has to take.

New slink skin exporter runs into wall of red tape

EXPORTING slink skins to China from New Zealand is far more complex than exporting them from neighboring Australia, says a slink skin exporter.

Southland slink skin processor NZAGRI Development technical adviser Eddie Zhi said he has been overwhelmed by the complex system New Zealand requires for exporting slink skins since he set up shop in Southland this year.

Zhi has been exporting sheep skins and cow hides to China from Australia since 1992. Farmer’s Weekly previously reported Zhi collected 170,000 lambs this season after wet, cold and windy conditions hit Southland.

Zhi said if he wants to order 10 pallets of skins to export from an abattoir in Australia they would simply ask him “Where’s the money?”, and once he pays the skins could be picked up by himself or a client.

He could do this as an individual, or as a company, and would simply need to show the regional council he is not damaging the environment when he stores skins in a warehouse.

We have to raise an electronic certificate for each place the skins transit through and for each shipment.

Exporting skins from Australia requires no export licence or site registration, Zhi said.

By contrast, in New Zealand even transporting skins to a neighbouring property would require the sender, receiver, their companies and transport vehicle to be registered with the Ministry for Primary Industries.

“If I want to use a company like

Mainfreight to transport processed slink skins their depot has to be registered with the MPI, the truck too, and we have to raise an e-cert (electronic certificate) for each place the skins transits through and for each shipment.”

Zhi said he was due to export three pallets with 6000 skins to China this week, and had to fill in 36 pages of documentation.

The skins were all processed, and treated with salt, fungicides and bactericides.

Zhi said if he exports all the skins he collected this season it would add about $1 million to the Southland economy.

Approached for comment, the divisional manager for bilaterial relations and trade at the MPI, Steve Ainsworth, said China requires all imported hides and skin consignments to be accompanied by an export certificate.

The MPI issues export certificates that provide assurances relating to biosecurity, which incorporates traceability.

The requirements are set by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
The premises where hides and skins are processed must also be registered with both MPI and the relevant authorities in China.
COMPLEX: Eddie Zhi, a slink skin processor from Southland, says navigating local export requirements for slink skins is complex when compared to what is needed in Australia. Photo: Supplied
Gerhard Uys NEWS Exports
Wallace NEWS Production
SUPPORT: Alliance chief executive Willie Wiese has previously suggested meat
could process stock
each other to reduce cartage costs.

GE shift ‘could cost exporters billions’

NEW Zealand’s primary sector exports could take a $10-$20 billion annual hit if genetically modified organisms are released into the environment, a study by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says.

The study was commissioned by Organics Aotearoa New Zealand.

Co-author of the study Dr Bill Kaye-Blake says in a report that because the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE) has already highlighted the possible benefits that gene technology may have for New Zealand but has not undertaken a regulatory impact statement, economic assessment or costbenefit analysis, his study focused solely on the possible negative impacts to the primary industry.

The lack of a regulatory impact statement makes it difficult to fully assess the proposed regulatory changes and its impact, the report says.

A regulatory impact statement

would typically describe the problem the regulations aim to address, provide multiple options with their respective impacts and trade-offs, and quantify economic costs and benefits.

Approached for comment, the MBIE confirmed it has not commissioned specific research on the financial impacts of possible changes to gene technology legislation, but said there are, however, existing resources on the economic implications of gene editing.

The study drew on previous research that attempted to quantify the economic benefits of New Zealand’s clean green image and the premium it provides to the primary sector and the tourism sector.

The report says there are indications of massive negative impacts if NZ’s clean green image is damaged, but that there is also other research suggesting there would be no fallout from a change.

Based on these disparities a more complete economic assessment is warranted, the report says.

The report cites a 2008 PwC survey that found more than 80% of New Zealand exporters believe

that NZ’s clean green image is vital to their export profile.

It says a 2001 study by PA Consultants estimated the loss to the dairy industry if NZ’s clean green image was tarnished would be as high as $214 million.

The report says research by Lincoln University’s Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit previously estimated the value of different market perceptions for NZ exports.

This research showed NZ on average could be receiving a 59% higher price for its primary exports because of the country’s brand and that consumers’ belief that NZ is GE-free creates a price premium for food and fibre exports of 24% and possibly more.

“If the value of the New Zealand brand, including the clean, green image, is a 59% premium over basic world prices, then a loss of that premium would be worth $20.3 billion annually from food and fibre exports.

“If market perceptions that New Zealand is GE-free creates a premium of 24% over basic world prices, the loss of that perception would be worth $10.6 billion annually,” the report says.

The study cites examples of genetically modified crops that did not make it to market for reasons such as changes in the market, inability to reach scale, lack of commercial interest and normal business challenges. It also raises concerns that with reduced oversight on gene technology, poorly capitalised companies with weak ties to New Zealand could experiment without oversight in the hopes of finding success, but be able to exit quickly if the experiments go badly.

It says it is unlikely New Zealand would create enough scale with any organism created through gene technology.

As a result, developing intellectual property and then selling or licensing it overseas is a more likely route to commercialisation.

“That approach could provide enough scale. However, commercialisation of IP is a different economic proposition than creating products to benefit New Zealand farmers.”

Prime Minister, Life Sciences Network slate GE report

Gerhard Uys TECHNOLOGY

A REPORT saying New Zealand primary industries exporters will lose as much as $20 billion if gene technology regulations are changed is missing the mark, says Life Sciences Network Inc chair Dr William Rolleston. Rolleston said in a statement that the economic analyses by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, which was commissioned by Organics Aotearoa New Zealand (OANZ), is not credible. The analyses said New Zealand

would taint its clean green image if it adopted gene technologies and that the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment needs to undertake a regulatory impact statement, economic assessment or cost-benefit analysis before regulations are changed.

“While there is, in some cases, a premium in the market for GM-free food, the report failed to acknowledge that where consumers see a benefit, genetically modified products sell at a premium,” Rolleston said.

“For example, Bangladesh farmers receive a 30% price premium for GM eggplant because they use less spray.

Everywhere where farmers have had the choice, they have rapidly taken up GM technologies.
William Rolleston

Life Sciences Network

“Everywhere where farmers have had the choice, they have rapidly taken up GM technologies, seeing them as beneficial for their farms, their families and their businesses. Uptake has been over 90% in many cases.

“This has not stopped farmers

remaining in the GM-free market if they have wanted to. Coexistence is possible in a country which uses GM – a point the OANZ report misses entirely.”

Rolleston said the report also fails to acknowledge that GM organisms are already in the New Zealand environment, such as GM enzymes used in cheese, and imported animal feed grown from GM crops.

Asked about the report at the Restoring Farmer Confidence Tour held at Mystery Creek, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he disagreed with the findings.

“We can do both [GM and GM-

free]. We need to make sure we have technology available [if] ... we are serious about delivering our climate change goals which we can deliver through technology and innovation, and we also don’t want to be at a disadvantage to other countries that we compete with.”

Luxon said the government will work conservatively through the GE rule-change process to ensure there are checks and balances in place.

“The debate has moved on from where it was 25 years ago.”

This is why chief science advisers of the previous government and others backed the move, he said.

GAPS: Dr Bill Kaye-Blake says the government’s proposed regulatory changes on gene technologies do not include a regulatory impact statement, economic assessment or cost-benefit analysis.

Ragwort weed hits Pāmu hard in Northland

PĀMU, the government’s farming SOE and largest farm operator in Northland, is throwing its weight behind efforts to contain and control the spread of an intensely invasive weed that has already crushed production on one of its farms.

Production on Pāmu’s Far North Rangiputa Farm near the Karikari Peninsula has been hit by a 35% decline in its production since 2018 due to the spread of Madagascar ragwort throughout much of its pasture area.

The weed has also been detected on other Pāmu properties throughout Northland.

Will Burrett, Pāmu’s chief operating officer, told Farmers

Weekly the impact has been significant and rapid coming from a weed that was relatively unknown, and until now little understood.

Pāmu has joined calls for a cross-industry group to deal with the weed, and seek government funding to help deal with it before it spreads further.

“For many years it was thought to be gravel goundsel and [we] went down approaches to control

SPREADING: Pāmu is not alone among Northland farms as the invasive species also becomes well established along much of Australia’s eastern coast.

that which were not the best for Madagascar ragwort. It is a difficult weed to classify, but it is now very widespread north of Kerikeri.”

Rangiputa farm has 1200 hectares of cattle-only pasture which are now heavily infested, with some areas having as much as 50% of the weed in their area.

AgResearch scientist Dr Trevor James has been commissioned by the Northland Regional Council to head up a team to try to understand and control the weed.

James said the weed had caught the pastoral sector off guard and has proven difficult to identify.

He said a chemical approach appears to offer the best solution, but the sheer volume of the weed could make pulling it back difficult.

Pāmu’s experience has been that chemical control is expensive, costing about $900 a hectare a year, in addition to other costs of physical removal of the weed.

Northland Regional Council chair and farmer Geoff Crawford used to be a weed spray contractor in the region. He believes he may have been one of the first to be alerted to the weed over 20 years ago when a farmer client spotted it.

“What we are finding is even if you spray a paddock out, cultivate it, drill it and then spray post emergence, it still has the ability to come back from the remaining roots in the ground.”

Burrett said spraying can also increase the weed’s palatability, making it more appealing to cattle, who eat it and suffer toxicity problems.

Both Bay of Plenty and Waikato Regional council officials said neither region has reported it yet.

It poses a very real risk to the future of pastoral farming, not only in Northland, but well beyond here.

Will Burrett Pāmu

The misclassification of the weed means it has not been on any weed databases or pest lists nationally, and therefore not a notifiable organism.

Burrett said it was not just a Pāmu problem, with multiple Northland farmers reporting discoveries of the weed in recent months.

“There is a real need there to fund an effort to get in and deal with this. It poses a very real risk to the future of pastoral farming, not only in Northland, but well beyond here.”

The Australian experience does not bode well for eradicating the weed here and supports the likelihood it could spread well beyond Northland.

Australian authorities have identified the weed along a coastal fringe extending from the southeastern Victoria coast right through to as far north as Noosa, Queensland. A range of herbicides are recommended there for treatment, including several that are available to farmers to use in NZ.

John Sanson, Ministry for Primary Industries biosecurity manager of pests and regulations, said the MPI was first notified about the weed in late 2022, and suspicions were it has been in Northland since at least 2014.

He said the Northland Regional Council is working to add the weed to the council’s pest management plan.

Meantime co-funding avenues are available through the Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures fund for biocontrol tools used for other weeds, including horehound.

Keep your poultry and pet birds safe – be ready for bird

Signs of bird flu in chickens and other poultry

• Lack of energy/reluctance to move.

• Eating less than normal.

• Droopy head.

• Darkened and/or swollen comb/wattle.

• Coughing, panting and runny nostrils.

• Swelling around the head and neck.

• Laying fewer eggs than normal.

• Watery or green diarrhoea.

• Bruises on body and legs.

• A silent hen house.

If you see dead birds, call our pest and disease hotline on 0800 80 99 66

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) is encouraging anyone with poultry or pet birds to prepare for the possible arrival of bird u.

New Zealand has never had a case of high pathogenicity avian in uenza (HPAI), also known as bird u, and government agencies are keeping a close watch on events overseas and preparing.

In countries with HPAI, the disease is not a food safety issue and it is safe to eat chicken and egg products that are thoroughly cooked.

“While HPAI is still some distance from New Zealand and we’ve never had a case here, it’s important that we take a cautious approach,” says MPI’s Chief Veterinary O cer, Dr Mary van Andel.

MPI has launched a summer campaign to raise awareness of HPAI – targeting people on lifestyle blocks, city-dwellers with backyard poultry, bird fanciers, rare breed keepers and people with pet birds.

Dr van Andel says we can all help to reduce the potential impacts of H5N1 by being prepared.

“Everyone has a part to play. We are encouraging people who own backyard or domestic poultry, heritage breeds or other pet birds to be ready for bird u by practising good biosecurity.”

Preparing for a dry start to summer

Farmers are being encouraged to use nitrogen and careful management to set their pastures up to thrive and survive this summer.

NIWA forecasters are predicting dry spells, especially in the west of both islands, and above average temperatures across the country until the end of January.

“There are lots of small decisions farmers and lifestyle block owners can make to set themselves up for a successful summer,” says MPI’s director of On Farm Support, Dr John Roche.

“The most important thing is to identify pasture surpluses and either harvest them, as hay or silage, or close the gate on them and defer the grazing until January or February to ll feed gaps later in the season.

“Applying nitrogen to pasture in December encourages tillering and plant survival and sets grass up for summer growth.

“Extending round length can help build feed covers. Dairy farmers should aim to be on a round of 30-plus days by mid to late December, depending on covers and where in the country they are farming.”

Dr Roche says it’s important farmers farm to the conditions in their region.

“Southland has had an incredibly wet spring, which has been extremely challenging for farmers,” Dr Roche says.

“The forecast drier, warmer weather will enable saturated paddocks to dry out and farmers to focus on restocking depleted supplementary feed supplies, where possible.”

Dr Roche says industry bodies DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb New Zealand have excellent online resources to support farmers.

“There are plenty of tactics farmers and lifestyle block owners can use to increase feed supply or decrease demand,” Dr Roche says.

“Identifying and selling early culls, lambs that have hit target weight, or prime livestock can help reduce mouths to feed.

“It’s also a good opportunity to look at your feed needs for the coming months. If boughtin supplement is part of your summer strategy consider contracting ahead, before the weather gets dry, to ensure availability at a price that works for your budget.

“Many regions had good spring growing conditions enabling surpluses to be harvested to help build a bu er of feed heading into summer.

“Recent rain has been welcome farmers in North Canterbury and parts of the eastern South Island and lower North Island which had very dry, challenging conditions from last summer into winter.”

Forecasters say if La Niña develops it is likely to be weak and short-lived.

To contact On Farm Support, call freephone 0800 70 71 33 or email onfarmsupport@mpi.govt.nz

The HPAI H5N1 strain that has been spreading globally since 2020 is spread by direct contact between infected and healthy birds, and indirectly through contaminated equipment, materials, water and feed.

The best way to keep your birds safe is to prevent them having contact with in ected birds or contaminated materials and environments.

“This means keeping your birds away from wild birds, maintaining good hygiene whenever you’re handling or working with birds, and keeping their feed, water and bedding free of contamination.

“If HPAI spreads to New Zealand, it’s likely to become established in our wild bird population, so having good biosecurity practices in place will help to protect your birds from the disease.”

Since the new H5N1 strain emerged in 2020, government agencies and industry have been keeping a close watch on the spread of the disease overseas, and preparing should it get to New Zealand.

MPI has been working in partnership with poultry industry bodies the Poultry Industry Association of New Zealand and the Egg Producers Federation on business continuity and resilience in the event of an outbreak of HPAI, and making sure farmers and growers have strong biosecurity in place.

“The implementation of rigorous on-farm biosecurity now, before an incursion, has the potential to protect individual farms from infection and to limit impacts on the domestic supply of poultry meat and eggs,” says Dr van Andel.

Advice from New Zealand health agencies is that it is very rare for humans to be infected with HPAI even if they are exposed.

According to Health New Zealand’s health information and services website, in other countries where HPAI is present, human infection has generally only been found in people who have had a lot of contact with infected birds or other infected animals.

There has never been a case of HPAI in humans reported in New Zealand and currently, the risk of infection here is low. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) has assessed that the overall public health risk to humans globally is low.

More information

• Detailed advice for bird owners is available at www.mpi.govt.nz/Bird- u

• Information on HPAI, including on the implications for human health and food safety, is available at www.mpi.govt.nz/HPAI

• If you see dead birds, call our pest and disease hotline on 0800 80 99 66

Students

receive

primary sector scholarships

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has awarded six tertiary students scholarships as part of e orts to boost on-the-ground support for farmers and growers.

The On Farm Support Science Scholarships, for the 2025 academic year, are each worth $5,000.

They have been awarded to Lincoln University students Georgia Higinbottom, Ashton Robinson and Henry Bartrum, Massey University students Mac Williams and Ella Bryan. and Otago University student Georgie Burdon, who are studying

agricultural science, veterinary science, science, or commerce.

They range from an experienced shepherd to a student studying soil science and a recent FMG Young Farmer of the Year grand nalist.

The scholarships help build a knowledgeable advisory sector ready to provide practical, specialised support to our primary industries.

Eligibility for the scholarships, which were launched in 2023, was widened this year to include multiple universities and institutes of technology.

MPI’s director of On Farm Support, Dr John Roche.
Georgia Higinbottom is one of six students to be awarded an On Farm Support Science Scholarship.

Govt moves Southland farm plan deadline

SOUTHLAND farmers now have until 2026 to have a farm plan in place.

The cabinet has agreed to give farmers in Southland more time to comply with regional rules in the Southland Water and Land Plan, giving them until mid-2026 to meet the regional requirements.

In October the National Freshwater Farm Plan system was paused to enable improvements to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers.

Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said this targeted change will mean that national and regional farm planning systems are aligned.

The government intends to finalise changes to the National Freshwater Farm Plan system by mid-2025, he said.

Without the new timeframe, Southland farmers would have been required to have a farm plan by the end of this month, November 2024.

Approached for comment, Environment Southland general

INTEGRATED: OSPRI general manager of disease control planning and integration Simon Andrew says it is ‘excited by this step in OSPRI’s growth as an integrated disease management agency’.

manager Rachael Millar said farmers with farm plans that meet the requirements set out in the Southland Water and Land Plan’s appendix N can reach out to a certifier and have their plan certified.

A regional training programme for certifiers is in place with 13 certifiers approved.

Seven more approvals are

DEADLINE:

The government has pushed out the need for Southland farmers to have farm plans by 18 months, just days before an earlier deadline.

Photo: File

“Our message to farmers continues to be ‘Start pulling together the information for your farm plan now. We will be there to support you to share the latest information we have,’” Horrell said.

Hokonui Hills dairy farmer Nigel Johnston said he already has a farm plan, formulated with help from Open Country, to which he supplies milk.

He said the government is being pragmatic, however he does not want focus to be lost as a result of the deadline shift, because on his farm a farm environment plan is a useful tool and helps him focus on the important part of his business.

pending and a further six potential certifiers are currently undergoing final training, Millar said.

Environment Southland chair Nicol Horrell said that over the coming months Environment Southland will be sharing catchment-specific information with opportunities for action to support farmers to develop and refine their Southland Farm Plans.

“I don’t feel my time has been wasted by the work we have done so far [on farm plans],” Johnston said.

Over 70% of farmers supplying Open Country in Southland already have farm plans.

Southland Federated Farmers president Jason Herrick said the deadline shift is great news for farmers.

Herrick said before the government paused the National Freshwater Farm Plan system

in October, farm plans focused mainly on freshwater rules.

However the delay means

Environment Southland could now bring farm plans already drawn up by farmers into their existing framework.

OSPRI brings Tb testing in-house

Staff reporter NEWS Disease

OSPRI will take over on-farm Tb testing itself, following AsureQuality’s recent decision not to renew its contract.

“Livestock Tb testing remains an indispensable part of the TBfree programme, and we’re working hard to ensure it continues at cattle and deer farms across New Zealand,” said OSPRI general manager of disease control planning and integration Simon Andrew.

“We’re excited by this step in OSPRI’s growth as an integrated disease management agency.

“By insourcing the service, it brings us closer to our farmers

and that’s particularly important given the crucial part they play in our Tb eradication programme.”

By delivering Tb testing itself, OSPRI believes there are other benefits too.

Firstly, it introduces more agility, whether that’s responsiveness to emerging technology or when changes in Tb testing are needed quickly.

Then, by integrating on-farm Tb testing OSPRI will look to bring in certified people already familiar to farmers and, as such, reduce the risk of disruption to the TBfree programme.

“We have a unique opportunity to welcome specifically skilled and experienced people to OSPRI, as well as assisting those individuals who may be interested

in becoming a certified technician.

“Either way, it’s a great way to strengthen our bench, and our discussions with current Tb testers have already been met with an enthusiastic response.”

Andrew acknowledges OSPRI could rely on pockets of subcontracting where it makes sense to do so.

AsureQuality chief executive Kim Ballinger said she is extremely proud of the mahi and the people who have worked alongside farmers to provide these important services for the TBfree programme.

“We are pleased that there are opportunities within OSPRI which will utilise the talent of these specialist roles to support

the ongoing success of the programme.”

OSPRI will take over on-farm Tb testing on July 1, 2025. Before then the organisations are working closely to ensure a smooth transition for farmers. During the transitionary period testing has been reduced in lower-risk areas.

This brings us closer to our farmers and that’s particularly important given the crucial part they play in our Tb eradication programme.

Reassurance offered on Fonterra share market move

FONTERRA’S intention to move its supply share listing from a private market to the NZX Main Board should hold no concerns for farmers, Forsyth Barr analyst Matt Montgomerie says.

Trading of co-operative shares on NZX does have a precedent and the farmer-only ownership and restriction on Fonterra Cooperative Group (FCG) shares poses no issues.

Fonterra said its reasons for the move include cost savings, although it did not disclose what NZX has charged for operating the private market since Trading Among Farmers was introduced in 2012.

“Given that Fonterra has successfully transitioned to our Flexible Shareholding capital structure and the co-operative’s trading environment is well developed and mature, now it is appropriate to move,” Fonterra said.

It also plans to quit listing the Fonterra Shareholders Fund (FSF) on the Australia Stock Exchange, leaving it sole listed on the NZX.

Montgomerie said the disparity between FCG share and FSF unit prices is shrinking but he doesn’t expect it to disappear. It is currently 90c.

Over the past 12 months FCG shares have doubled to around $4.50 at the time of writing.

The price of FSF units has risen 75% to $5.40, showing evidence of

greater investor speculation that up to $2 in capital returns might follow the planned divestment of the consumer brands and businesses.

Investors in both FCG and FSF have received dividends and capital returns totalling $1.45 over the past 14 months.

Fonterra general manager for capital markets Philip van Polanen said there is a healthy participation in the FCG market from a broad range of farmers.

Many farmers are using the tailored Sharesies app and the market makers continue to actively participate and support farmer liquidity.

“The market makers will continue to support liquidity in the restricted market and the

custodian will continue to operate so that only farmers hold shares in the co-operative.”

Asked to comment on the depth of the FCG market, or what is known as fungibility and the ease with which farmers can trade when needed, he pointed to the turnover between 60 and 90 million shares annually.

Most of the share turnover is through farm sales with the majority of the farm purchases continuing to supply the co-op.

Philip van Polanen Fonterra

That is around 5% of total shares issued and is a measure of the farm buying and selling activity, plus retirement of shareholders, who now hold 9% of shares.

“Most of the turnover is through farm sales with the majority of the farm purchases continuing to supply the co-op,” he said.

Market makers are brokers Craigs and Jarden and they buy and sell with risk and reward to keep up levels of bids and asks as specified by the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act.

The market has seasonality, as farmers seek to sell and buy at certain times of the year.

“Since flexible shareholding began we are seeing more farmer to farmer share market activity,” Van Polanen said.

FOCUS: Southland Federated Farmer’s president Jason Herrick says the new deadline means Environment Southland can now bring farm plans already drawn up by farmers into their existing framework.
Photo: File
Hugh Stringleman NEWS Fonterra

Southeast Asia upside for NZ fruit supplies

Richard Rennie NEWS Horticulture

DESPITE Thailand enjoying an abundance of tropical fruit, New Zealand apples and kiwifruit are also proving to be highly popular there, with a large fruit grower and exporter seeing significant upside in the valuable southeast Asian market.

James Gordon, T&G Global’s general manager for Asia, is witnessing firsthand the continuing surge in demand there for kiwifruit and apples, particularly its premium Jazz and Envy apple brands.

“Thailand accounts for 15.5% of our global Envy export volume and it’s a key market in our growth strategy,” Gordon said.

Combined, Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan account for about a third of New Zealand’s total apple exports. China takes about 19% and the European Union 6%.

Since 2016 T&G has enjoyed double-digit annualised growth in Thailand for both apples and kiwifruit sales. Zespri brand

kiwifruit are marketed through a collaborative agreement with Zespri.

For the 2023-24 season T&G marketed 305,000 Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit trays and 111,000 Zespri Green Kiwifruit trays in Thailand, collectively the third largest collaborative partnership that year.

We have a very discerning market here, with Thai consumers willing to pay for premium, high-quality fruit.

James Gordon T&G

Together with Vietnam and China, Thailand is one of T&G’s three largest markets in Asia for its premium Envy apples.

“We have a very discerning market here, with Thai consumers willing to pay for premium, highquality fruit.

“Chinese-sourced value-focused fruit would be 80% of the market, with the remaining 20% being the

premium segment, which is quite a large portion for an Asian market.”

Envy is the leading premium apple brand in Thailand, with consumers enjoying its crunch, sweetness and elusive aroma, with a description that varies depending upon the consumer questioned about it.

“Some say it is sometimes close to a lychee, mango-type aroma.”

While not as popular in Thailand as Envy, T&G’s Jazz apple brand is also a solid seller for the company, with a combination of sweet and sour flavours that is unusually (for Asia) quite popular.

For kiwifruit, Gordon said the greatest challenge is supply, with stocks usually outselling supply every season.

“Again, there is good brand recognition and a premium positioning given the plant variety and IP. The apples and kiwifruit between them bring a premium ‘glow’ to the produce shelf segment for our retailers in the chiller, which they like.”

T&G has also launched a new apple brand, Joli, to join its premium Jazz and Envy apple portfolio.

“We see it having a great future across Asia and other key markets. It is a big red apple, with great crunch, while the trees are high yielding.”

Its harvest profile also balances well against Jazz and Envy, harvesting in mid to late March.

Commercial release is expected to be in 2028.

Meantime the company is doubling down on Envy and Jazz volumes to meet the strong demand, engaging with growers across Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne and Nelson to expand crop area.

Gordon said T&G does not see a ceiling on the fresh fruit segment yet in southeast Asia and a key focus is to ensure consumers can access fruit all year around.

“While it is possible to get back on retailers’ shelves if your fruit is unavailable, the challenge is your consumers may have shifted away to other brands or categories, and your efforts get frozen at where you left off. Ensuring our premium apple brands are available every day of the year is absolutely key.”

For T&G’s apples, its United States-grown fruit is sold in Thailand from November to May and it then transitions to selling NZ grown apples from June to November.

Meantime Zespri is working to expand its northern hemisphere grower base, with a NZ grower vote to come on its expansion in coming weeks.

Pāmu lifts profit forecast on strong dairy, red meat returns Sandra Matthews takes helm at Rural Women NZ

Staff reporter NEWS Governance

TAIRĀWHITI sheep and beef farmer and current chair of Rural Women New Zealand

Sandra Matthews has been elected national president of the organisation.

Along with husband Ian, Matthews runs Te Kopae Station, a 536 hectare sheep and beef farm at Rere, near Gisborne. She has a financial and coaching background and alongside farming has her own consultancy helping farmers grow efficient and viable agri-businesses.

Matthews also has extensive governance experience. As well as being RWNZ board chair, she is chair of the Rural Communities Trust and past chair of the Beef + Lamb NZ Eastern North Island Farmer Council and the Tairāwhiti Rural Advisory Group.

Matthews is also a trustee for Endometriosis New Zealand and was the co-founder of Farming Women Tairāwhiti Incorporated.

“Sandra has been a committed advocate for women and New Zealand’s primary sector over many years, and her family, farm and personal values are at the heart of everything she does,” said RWNZ chief executive Marie Fitzpatrick.

Matthews said she is honoured

to be elected and take on the national president role.

“So many rural people have helped Ian and me in our own farming lives, so I am looking forward to giving back through such an important and historically significant organisation as Rural Women New Zealand,” Matthews said.

“The fact is that primary industries and rural communities remain the backbone of the country but are often neglected. Rural New Zealand can be idyllic, but at times it can also be incredibly difficult to live and raise a family in, with isolation factors, severe weather events, economic conditions, volatile commodity prices, and the accessibility of health, education and social services often presenting severe challenges.

“The role of RWNZ is to empower and support women, rural families and their communities to meet the challenges of today so they can build towards a positive future for generations to come. RWNZ also advocates strongly to make sure rural concerns are not forgotten by policymakers.”

With Matthews’ election, Gill Naylor’s four-year term as national president has come to an end.

“Gill certainly leaves a big legacy, and we will greatly miss the expertise, enthusiasm and

BACKGROUND: Sandra Matthews has a financial and coaching background and alongside farming has her own consultancy helping farmers grow efficient and viable agri-businesses.

wisdom she brought to the role,” Fitzpatrick said.

“On behalf of all Rural Women members, we thank Gill for her hard work as national president and for the effort she has put into fulfilling the organisation’s purpose of strengthening, supporting and connecting people and communities.”

Staff reporter NEWS Agribusiness

PĀMU is expecting full-year net operating profit of $25-$40 million for the 2025 financial year. This is considerably up on its previous forecast of $8m, in its Statement of Corporate Intent.

The updated forecast net operating profit is a reflection of increased revenue due to positive production trends, and higher milk and red meat prices, Pāmu chief executive Mark Leslie said.

“The wide range of the forecast recognises the potential impacts presented by material adverse weather events, volatility in commodity prices, including the range of the Fonterra forecast for the season, and geo-political tensions.”

The forecast increase in milk revenue reflects Fonterra’s recent forecast lift of $9-$10/kg MS for conventional milk, and $10.90-$11.90/kg MS for organic milk.

It also assumes an increase in livestock revenue.

“There is strong demand for beef in the United States market, and while sheepmeat prices have improved due to lower supply in the market, they remain below five-year averages,” Leslie said.

Continued spending discipline is essential if this improvement in milk price is to be reflected in the balance sheet. Cost control initiatives implemented on farms will enable it to meet cost of production and capital expenditure targets, he said.

The Shareholding Minister’s Letter of Expectations released in April emphasised the need for Pāmu to focus on core business and deliver an appropriate level of commercial return to, and represent a value-for-money investment, for the Crown.

“While much of our business is focused on farming, increasingly we are diversifying our portfolio to mitigate commodity cycles and optimise our use of assets to generate returns. Integrating horticulture and production forestry into our land use has increased our returns on farms.

“Year two of our avocado harvests are ahead of plans and the 6 hectares of blueberries in tunnels in Northland are progressing well towards our first harvest commencing August 2025.

“We are positioning Pāmu for the long term to be able to perform in an environment of heightened global uncertainty, inflationary and interest rate pressures and commodity price volatility,” Leslie said.

Photo: Supplied
ENVIABLE: Envy apple variety is proving a big hit with southeast Asian customers.

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From the Editor

Tough calls face wider meat sector

IS IT time for the meat industry to follow Fonterra and Zespri and ask the government to legislate it to establish a monopoly or near-monopoly seller?

The plight of capital-strapped Alliance Group shows the past 10 years of relative industry stability were an aberration and maybe it is time for the meat industry to rethink its structure.

The idea was last publicly floated in 1996 by farmers and meat industry leaders exasperated by the poor performance of meat companies and claims of undercutting in the market.

They argued that dairy, kiwifruit and meat all have seasonal peak production and high fixed costs but two of those had a regulated marketing arm. Meat did not.

Alliance is seeking between $100 million and $150m in new capital from shareholders but if that fails its options are a partial sale, such as Silver Fern Farms made to Shanghai Maling in 2016, or a complete sale.

The co-operative is not in a strong position, having reported its second successive annual financial loss and closing its Smithfield plant.

With production being heavily weighted to sheepmeat where returns have been poor, shareholders are not flush with cash.

The meat industry is not yet on life support but the challenges facing Alliance – excess capacity, ageing plants, high fixed costs and falling stock numbers – are not peculiar to the co-operative.

It is understood the coalition government is not interested in a single-desk meat seller due to trade implications, but could there be alternative industry-wide solutions to what are existing and looming wider-industry issues?

and processors of the Taste Pure Nature brand, which transcends commercial self-interest.

Could that have a role in some form of industry co-operation?

The kiwifruit and dairy sectors had their own underlying issues prior to forming centralised selling systems.

Zespri was established in 1997 due to soft kiwifruit markets, including the collapse of the United States market in the 1990s, and tough economic conditions that created a debt issue for growers.

It has a near monopoly on the marketing of NZ kiwifruit to the world beyond NZ and Australia.

Fonterra was formed in 2001 through the merger of the NZ Dairy Board, NZ Dairy Group and Kiwi Co-operative Dairies.

At the time the Dairy Board marketed all NZ dairy products and smaller co-operatives were merging to provide economies of scale.

Letters of the week

Kerry model is one to emulate

FONTERRA shareholders should look to Ireland for an example of how to maximise value.

Kerry Group was listed on the Dublin Stock Exchange in 1986 and has grown into a multinational ingredients business spanning the globe with revenue of NZ$14 billion and EBITDA of NZ$2.1bn.

Dividends to farmers have grown by 16% CAGR over the intervening 37 years and the co-op has gradually sold down its shareholding, earning farmers many billions more in distributions.

This is an impressive financial return that Fonterra can only dream of emulating.

This juncture seems a perfect opportunity to spin off the consumer foods business into a publicly listed company while retaining ownership by farmers.

Suitable management can then lead the new company creating value for farmers.

Who knows what it could be worth in 37 years’ time?

Offshoring cruelty to animals

IT IS unacceptable to send live animals to countries with inadequate or non-existent animal welfare protection legislation or anti-cruelty laws.

Cruelty, inhumane treatment and prolonged animal suffering are common in countries and regions such as China, the Middle East and the Pacific Islands, among others.

Under New Zealand’s Animal Welfare Act 1999, many of the practices involving animals in countries of destination for live export would be illegal and subject to criminal prosecution.

The Lamb Company in the US, a billiondollar processing and marketing joint venture between Alliance, SFF and ANZCO, is an example of industry collaboration, and recently Alliance chief executive Willie Wiese floated the ideal of toll processing stock on behalf of companies to reduce costs.

Previous single-desk-seller models for meat have failed, revealing intractable problems, the least of which is the fierce independence of meat companies.

One difference this time is the establishment in 2019 by Beef + Lamb NZ

The view was these benefits could increase through a farmer-owned co-operative.

The wider meat sector faces some tough decisions on company viability and excess processing capacity due to falling sheep numbers, ageing infrastructure, high fixed costs and managing the intractable issue of four months of peak production.

The sector may decide to manage the impact of those decisions as an industry or leave companies to battle on their own.

One thing is indisputable, the meat processing sector is in for a tough few years.

New Zealand’s Animal Welfare Act recognises that “animals are sentient”. By reinstating live export, the National Government and those farmers supplying stock are knowingly complicit in condoning and supporting animal cruelty, mistreatment and suffering.

The government’s decision to restart live export shows unequivocally that profit is prioritised over animal welfare.

Resuming live export discredits New Zealand internationally and makes a mockery of New Zealand’s claim to uphold and be a leader in high standards of animal welfare.

Farmers will be sorry to see Guiney go

Alternative view

Alan Emerson

Semi-retired Wairarapa farmer and businessman: dath.emerson@gmail.com

COMPARED with previous annual general meetings the recent Fonterra event could be described as mild, pedestrian even. Unlike some of the previous AGMs, however, it was constructive.

In addition, the commentary from Fonterra was factual and presented without fanfare. That is a far cry from the gold-plated platitudes and hyperbole of the pre-Peter McBride era.

The AGM also marked the resignation of nine-year board member Leonie Guiney, who I rate extremely highly.

In her final address to shareholders she described Fonterra “as a co-operative with

a culture that will keep delivering for all stakeholders”. She added that “the combination of listening while leading, financial discipline and strategic clarity has changed Fonterra”.

“In the last six years Fonterra has seen major change – in every way.”

Governance has changed.

She believes the role of governance is to understand the business you are in and what your competitive advantage is. You then employ the right CEO to deliver on that and you hold them to account. When you get that right, boards shouldn’t be busy. They let the management team get on with it.

She followed by saying that Fonterra’s core business is to “collect, process and market milk in such a way that maximises its value relative to the risks involved ... The highest portion of that value must land on farm, with those producers who have invested in that supply chain.

“This is not to say co-operatives should focus only on price. When they do that they cannibalise themselves. With appropriate ongoing investment in your core advantage, in Fonterra’s case our high-quality ingredients and food service business, and in market access, we ensure long-term returns for producers.”

She was “not worried about Fonterra’s future. Clarity and appropriate gearing will help it handle cycles and volatility.”

I first met Leonie Guiney six years ago. She had previously been voted onto the board by farmers and found herself not permitted to stand for re-election.

The issue was that she didn’t approve the directors statement (generic in all accounts approvals) in the 2017 accounts that “accounting policies have been consistently applied and supported by reasonable judgements and estimates”.

She was also unable to support the statement that “directors have taken adequate steps to safeguard the assets of the group”.

Strong words indeed. She is a strong person.

She was also unpopular for her views on Beingmate, which I certainly considered a dog. Back then she said that there was too much easy access to capital into Fonterra and insufficient riskadjusted thinking.

Fonterra borrowed $2.1 billion, putting $700 million into Beingmate and the same amount into China Farms. Both investments were total disasters in my view.

“The logic of a prototype farm in return for market access morphed into unbridled growth in Chinese farming.”

I’m positive neither would have happened under the current Fonterra board.

The 2018 hit came from Fonterra when I filed a story about Guiney. Farmers Weekly asked Fonterra

for comment and was hit with an injunction to stop the story being published.

It also gagged the general media from providing any commentary.

Subsequently the board was forced to leave Guiney free to speak to the media and to reimburse all her costs. At the time I wrote that the Fonterra board put personalities first and shareholders a poor second.

Remember, back in 2018 Fonterra made a loss of $210m followed by another loss of $610m in 2019. That’s a far cry from this year’s $1.17bn profit.

Since 2018 Fonterra has had a new chair, CEO, CFO and new auditors. Fonterra has changed.

Starting at the board, I’d suggest back then the co-operative was run by an autocratic oligarchy with delusions of grandeur.

Today the board is focused on doing the best for its shareholders and it has.

In the words of Guiney, it’s “gone from an attitude of ‘we’re the biggest, we’re the best and we’re a major international player’ to what’s best for shareholders”.

Six years ago if you criticised Beingmate or China Farms you were extremely unpopular as they were considered the jewels in the crown.

Now they’ve been divested for the dogs that they were. As Guiney said, “if it isn’t core business, divest – and channel your skills,

energy and capital into your strengths”.

Finally, in the words of Leonie Guiney, “if you don’t have your North Star, knowing where you’re heading and why, you have a recipe for disaster”. Farmers will be sorry Leonie is leaving the board at Fonterra but should be grateful for her considerable contribution. She is a highly intelligent and motivated person who was strong enough to take on the Fonterra board oligarchy at the time and win.

Lessons from elephant eaters: Derek Daniell

In this series, the regular Eating the Elephant contributors hand the pen to four farming New Zealanders with a history of taking on big challenges.

ANYONE involved with the sheep industry knows Derek Daniell and Wairere Sheep Stud. As a leading ram breeder, Daniell has significantly influenced the sector through improved genetics. Interacting with many farmers over many decades, his ideas have helped shaped the direction of food and fibre – ranging from international meat and wool markets, to the environmental impact of ruminants.

Why did you choose a life in food and fibre?

I’m a baby boomer, one of that lucky generation who escaped war and enjoyed rising prosperity. In 1970 the food kitty for our student flat was $3 per week. Uni education was virtually free. Shooting one deer per week made more money than a job shepherding.

By 1973, one New Zealand dollar was buying US$1.49. Roaming the world in peacetime was a contrast to my grandfather’s travelling to the First World War. I made the most of being the only son of a successful farmer.

After two years in India seeking enlightenment, I returned to NZ as a failed meditator. I was lucky to have a fallback opportunity on the family farm.

What are you most proud of and why?

My family. They are all entrepreneurial and enjoy life. Being part of 50shadesofgreen and exposing the false narrative that farming is ruining the environment. Investing in startups like Atkins Sheep Ranch and Wools of New Zealand, also in commercial property, Cross Slot drills, Mānuka honey from 2004, a Northern Territory cattle station,

a sheep farm in Victoria Australia, aged care and a prebiotic called Knewe. It has been an interesting ride, but just continually buying more land would have been the path to greater wealth.

What is the best investment that you’ve ever made (time, money, energy, product, etcetera)?

The sheep genetics game has been a lot of fun. I’ve met so many interesting people because of sheep breeding and every farmer has an interesting back story. I love that side of the business.

My wife and family are continually working on my personal development. I rate travelling and working abroad, especially outside Europe and English-speaking countries. Activities which stretch your personal limits are always valuable. For me, a Nuffield scholarship, a Kiyosaki-led business school in Hawaii, a Rabobank Global Master Class, and farmer discussion groups have all been great value.

What is the biggest thing that makes you optimistic for the future?

The calibre of young people in NZ. They generally have more international work experience (and at a higher level than my generation) and are very well connected around the world.

What advice would you give a young person today?

Get lots of experiences and a big network of friends around the world while you’re young. People skills are the key to personal and business success. Life goes in seven-year cycles. Make the most of your freedom during the 21-to28-years span.

What is the biggest thing that makes you pessimistic for the future?

NZ enjoyed a golden period of international trade between1995 and 2017. Since then, tariff and non-tariff barriers have proliferated. And the situation continues to worsen for a tiny player like NZ, with the previous government’s actions resulting in increased government and private debt.

Cheap energy underpins modern economies. NZ politicians chose to make the country more dependent rather than more self-reliant. That needs to change fast. NZ needs courageous leadership to shake off the entitlement attitude promoted by the previous government, when agriculture and employers were undermined.

What will the food and fibre sector of 2040 look like?

It will look more diverse. There will be more horticulture. There will be more irrigation. Farms will be bigger and people will farm fish. There will be more pine trees and

less pastoral farming because of carbon subsidies.

By 2040 New Zealanders will be incredulous that they believed the propaganda that this tree planting would prevent climate change and that farmed animals were the anthropogenic cause.

By 2040, sheep will either be run at larger scale with no wool and lower labour, or wool will contribute to new high-value products through its physical deconstruction, with greasy wool fetching $20/kg at the farm gate and powering a resurgence of sheep farming.

Sheep genetics for more intramuscular fat will enhance lamb eating quality.

Farmed animals may have a buzzer ear tag to reduce fencing costs – enabling these animals to eat new forage plants on uncultivable hill country, doubling feed supply and quality. Over the past 40 years feed supply has plateaued or shrunk.

Dairying could expand by 40% if we exported the naysayers as climate refugees.

The lust for power will be ongoing. NZ farming needs smaller government at national, regional and district levels. Government waste and corruption need another clean out. The woke need to wake up.

OLIGARCHY: Leonie Guiney had the courage to stand up for Fonterra shareholders at a time when, says Alan Emerson, the co-operative ‘was run by an autocratic oligarchy with delusions of grandeur’.
SHAPED: Interacting with many farmers over many decades, Derek Daniell’s ideas have helped shaped the direction of food and fibre.

Sector Focus

Call for seed sector rationalisation

EXPLORING the concept of a revised industry body is key in adapting to the evolving landscape of the primary sector, says Seed and Grain New Zealand chair Charlotte Connoley.

Reflecting on her first year as chair of the body formerly known as the NZ Grain and Seed Trade Association, Connoley’s report to the recent annual conference highlighted her belief that the “seed industry could do with some rationalisation”.

In an ongoing step in the industry’s evolution, Connoley had convened a meeting of senior industry leaders, opening the conversation to explore the concept of a revised industry body.

While acknowledging the association’s primary focus remains on creating new opportunities and delivering value to members and their businesses, to keep ahead of the curve in

doing so will require an industry shake-up.

“It’s no secret I believe the seed industry could do with some rationalisation.

“Removing duplication, achieving greater financial sustainability and creating greater scale for advocacy and impact are crucial for the future survival of our association.”

Connoley suggested there are more than 150 industry good organisations all trying to achieve goals similar to those of Seed and

TOP NOTCH: Grains and Pulses group chair and SGNZ vice-chair Edward Luisetti says ‘the 2024 harvest was a belter’, with excellent growing conditions, minimal disease pressure coupled with a favourably dry finish.

Photo: File

Grain NZ (SGNZ).

“Farmers and businesses’ pockets are only so deep and those in power have full schedules, hearing from us all on issues that often overlap.

“We need to lead the way as an association to be ahead of the curve in adapting to the evolving landscape of the primary sector and the reduced opportunities for contribution.”

Connoley assured association members that active representation within industry

and governance groups “remains a cornerstone of our mission”.

Securing market access remains a top priority.

“Encouragingly, we received promising indications that MPI officials were re-establishing connections with their counterparts in China.

“This fresh development raises our hopes of reinstating brassica seed exports to the Chinese market.”

Connoley said education and training remain at the heart of the association’s mission.

SGNZ is hosting the International Seed Testing Association Congress in May and the Seed Business conference with the Australian Seed Federation in August, both events in Christchurch.

Grains and Pulses group chair and SGNZ vice-chair Edward Luisetti said that “the 2024 harvest was a belter”, with excellent growing conditions, minimal disease pressure coupled with a favourably dry finish, but he aired concern around milling wheat procurement.

“There is a worrying trend of increased contracting direct with farmers.

“This is of particular concern to those companies involved in the breeding of milling wheat where the royalties received come nowhere near to covering the costs of the breeding programmes and the commission received from brokering the wheat with the flour mills is all important.”

Luisetti said there is no advantage to the mills in contracting directly with a grower.

“I hold serious concerns for the continuation of breeding milling wheat in NZ if this situation is not rectified.

“Breeding costs continue to rise and it seems royalties received for these breeding efforts continue to decline.”

In an effort to cover some of the known slippage in royalty collection, Luisetti visited many of the feed mills purchasing direct from farmers.

“In most cases these feed mills were not aware of their requirement to collect End Point Royalty on wheat.”

Future Fields 2030 strategy ready to grow industry

Annette Scott NEWS Arable

FUTURE Fields 2030, a strategy that seeks to grow the arable industry, has been revealed.

The strategy, which aims to provide cropping farmers with the skills, quality assurance and infrastructure needed to achieve future growth and profitability, was launched at the Foundation for Arable Research CROPS

field day at its Chertsey arable research site near Ashburton on Wednesday.

The New Zealand Arable Production Growth Strategy is a collaboration between FAR, Federated Farmers’ arable sector group, United Wheatgrowers and the Ministry for Primary Industries.

The strategy considers how arable growers’ businesses, and the sector overall, might be strengthened and better equipped to identify and pursue

high-value opportunities.

NZ’s arable growers manage complex farming systems, often with a wide range of crops grown in rotation, usually in combination with livestock and with support from entities such as FAR.

They are continually upskilling to enable the growing of new crops.

Future Fields 2030 builds on the arable sector’s strong base of agronomy-focused research and extension, adding three priorities:

building skills for success, standards of excellence and enabling infrastructure.

FAR chair Steven Bierema said the Future Fields 2030 strategy is crucial for ensuring that growers are equipped to meet emerging market demand.

“It is directly aligned with FAR’s commitment to driving research and development to enhance farmer profitability and sustainability.”

The strategy has set timelines and measures for delivery through

to 2030, with funding sought from levies, industry and the government.

The industry says its farmers are the unsung heroes of NZ’s primary sector, contributing more than $2 billion to the economy through their production of grain, highvalue seed and an increasing range of other crops.

Outputs from the arable sector are also vital to the $35bn livestock industry, through seeds for pastures, grains and other inputs for animal feed.

FEDERATED FARMERS

Big crowd for farm confidence event

Waikato farmers turned out in droves to hear from Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the first in a series of public meetings with Federated Farmers.

The first leg of the ‘Restoring Farmer Confidence’ event drew an upbeat crowd of almost 800 to the Mystery Creek Events Centre near Hamilton on November 26.

Te Aroha dairy farmer Carla De Wet says she enjoyed the event and found it incredibly helpful to find out what the Government is doing to get confidence back into farming again.

This event is exactly the sort of thing we need from Government because I think farmers feel like we’ve been pushed down for quite a while with all the rules and regulations.

Carla De Wet Te Aroha dairy farmer

“It’s pretty impressive to find out the Government has already achieved nine of the 12 things Federated Farmers asked for before the election.

“I think its bloody awesome to have ticked off so many things in such a short period of time. That’s just goes to show how influential that farming voice really is.

“This event is exactly the sort of thing we need from Government

because I think farmers feel like we’ve been pushed down for quite a while with all the rules and regulations.

“That’s created a big of a gap between farmers and Government, so I think this event was a good first step towards mending that relationship and building some trust.”

The president of Morrinsville/ Ngarua Young Farmers says she was vaguely aware of steps the Government was taking to roll back unworkable farming rules, but the Mystery Creek event clarified everything for her.

“I was also at the Federated Farmers Rural Issues Debate a year ago, so to contrast that event with this one really helped me see how far we’ve come in only a year.”

De Wet says another strong message to come through from the Prime Minister, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, and Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford was that Kiwi farmers are the best in the world.

“I’m South African, so I have an idea of what farming looks like in other parts of the world, and I genuinely believe New Zealand farmers are the best.

“We probably don’t hear that enough – so it was great to hear that message so strongly and directly from the leader of our country.”

Another who headed along was Will Balchin, a sheep and beef farmer from Kairangi, who says it was a very positive day with a great atmosphere.

“I reckon it’s very cool that the Prime Minister and Agriculture Minister would take the time out to do a tour around New Zealand just to boost farmer confidence.

“I’m sure they’re both busy guys, so to have them take the time out of their day to come and speak with us was pretty special. I could see the farmers really appreciated it.

“One thing that really stood out to me was that they want to make farmers feel valued – and they want to make farming an industry that people appreciate and respect again.

“Another message that came through loud and clear, and which matters to me as a young farmer, is that you can do good stuff for

the environment and still run a profitable business.

“The previous Government laid out a lot of rules and regulations for farmers, but didn’t seem to care too much about keeping us profitable.”

In his speech, Prime Minister Luxon reassured farmers his Government values them highly and wants to help get the rural sector humming again.

“You were the sector that powered us out of Covid, you were the sector that powered us out of the Global Financial Crisis, and we need you to power us out of this recession too,” he said.

“Under the previous Government we had a parent-to-child-type relationship with farmers, but this

VALUED: A key message that came through at Mystery Creek was that the Government values farmers highly and wants to see rural confidence restored.

new Government wants to have an adult-to-adult relationship.

“I want you to know that you’re not the problem; you’re part of the solution.”

Following the event the Prime Minister joined the crowd for a free BBQ lunch, with plenty of lamb racks, ribs, pulled lamb burgers and milkshakes to go around.

It was “a mean as feed”, Balchin says.

“And the Primo drinks too – you can’t beat a choccy milk.”

The final ‘Restoring Farmer Confidence Tour’ event is in Southland on Wednesday, 4 December, at the Southern Field Days Site in Waimumu from 12pm to 2pm.

More farmers turning to off-farm work

AFederated Farmers survey showing more than a quarter of farmers have had to supplement their income with work off-farm in the last year is no surprise for Toby Williams.

“The last 18 months have been really, really difficult for sheep and beef farmers – probably the most difficult since Rogernomics, when subsidies were wiped,” the Federated Farmers meat and wool chair says.

“Those with smaller farms, the ones without economies of scale, have had to do everything they can to pay the bank and keep food on the table.

“So, they’ve gone out shearing, or they’ve found work driving a tractor or truck. Or maybe it’s their partner who has had to go back to work,” Williams says.

The survey of nearly 1000 farmers found 26% were supplementing their income off farm.

The trend was slightly higher among female respondents at 31%, compared to 25% of male respondents.

It worries me that we could see mental health fraying, and people just burning out.

Of the age groups, 41% of those aged 18-39 were seeking income offfarm, compared to 32% aged 40-59, and 22% aged 60+.

Working off-farm is nothing new, but Williams suspects the trend has increased of late.

“High interest rates, lower returns and hikes in input costs in the last year or two mean plenty of farmers are feeling the pinch.

“Banks are ever-hungry. Many farmers carry a lot of debt and they know if repayments and interest

aren’t met, they’re in deep trouble.

“They’re grabbing extra work to get ahead, but they’re also striving to improve the efficiencies of their own operation.

“That’s why they really resent runaway council rates, and regulations that add costs for no significant gain.”

Williams believes most farmers have faith the situation is temporary.

“It’s part of a cycle of prices and returns. I think there’s general confidence we’ll get through it, and we’ll be stronger out the other side.”

His big concern is that, as more farmers and their partners feel forced to take up outside work, family life and farm tasks might take a back seat.

“It worries me that we could see mental health fraying, and people just burning out.”

Federated Farmers is very aware of cost pressures on its members, Williams says.

That’s why it has fought councils in multiple districts that were looking to bring in impractical regulations ahead of the Government’s resource management and freshwater management reforms.

It’s also why Feds counted its successful advocacy for a rural banking inquiry as a major win.

“Among other criticisms, we argue banks’ interest rate margins for farms are unfairly out of kilter with other loan types.

“Even a 1% cut in margins would mean some $625 million in interest savings for farmers, based on the current loan book.”

One farmer who’s sought income off-farm is Sam Berry, who used to be a fencing contractor full-time before he and his brothers took on leasing and running family farms near Raetihi, in Manawatū-Whanganui.

Over the last five years, they’ve built up from about 600 sheep to 2500, with ambitions to acquire more land next year and get to about 3600.

The 36-year-old says he and his brothers have kept up outside

shearing and fencing work to clear debt faster, and so they didn’t have to draw too much from the farm income.

“It’s the off-farm stuff that made it all work, really,” Berry says.

“We’d prefer to do less because it can be stressful when you’re always working. Even on-farm, there doesn’t seem to be the lulls in workload there used to be.

“If we were back to getting $180 for our fat lambs, we wouldn’t have to do so much off-farm.”

At least the brothers have flexibility to fill in for each other, as Berry

knows others who are probably staying afloat only by working off the farm.

Former Federated Farmers Otago president Simon Davies said in July that his 8500-stock-unit, 1000ha farm was only breaking even because he’d gone out contract fencing. His story in Farmers Weekly drew huge readership.

Davies says he’s amazed to learn from the survey that only 26% of farmers are working off-farm.

“I’d have thought it’d be higher,” he says.

“I’m convinced work off-farm is

8 0 0 3 2 7 6 4 6

NEEDS MUST: Working off-farm is nothing new, but it does seem to be on the increase in these tough economic times, Toby Williams says.

widespread – and increasing. Not everyone likes talking about it, but I think we should.”

Poor returns, high input costs and all the pressure from councils and environmental groups make succession discussions even more difficult, and Davies is just one farmer reluctantly considering selling land for forestry.

“Hope has never been part of my strategy.

“Anyone who wants to pile more cost and requirements on farmers really needs to stop and consider the impacts on rural New Zealand.”

Photo: Toby Williams

Cyclone-hit farmers score fencing windfall

The kick-off was earlier this year, but the big win for Tairāwhiti’s farmers came on Friday, 22 November.

Federated Farmers vs Parliament rugby and netball matches in Gisborne in May raised hundreds of thousands of dollars to support farming families hit by Cyclone Gabrielle.

Proceeds from those games and other sponsorship meant nearly 250 farming families scored a share of 49,000 fence posts, as well as wire and battens, at an event at Matawhero on 22 November.

Whangara sheep and beef farmer James Thomas says it was a “fantastic” effort by Federated Farmers and the Rapid Relief Team (RRT).

“The fencing gear was great, of course, but the day was also a bit of a lift to farmer spirit,” he says.

“It was a chance to get some lunch, see some friendly faces and realise you’re not the only one who has been through the wringer.”

Cyclone Gabrielle saw the Pakarae River swell to more than a metre

HELPING

HAND: Joining the Federated Farmers team on the ground at the Farmers Community Connect event was national board member Toby Williams (centre), and Paul Simmons (second from left), Rapid Relief Team GM NZ.

higher than during Cyclone Bola in 1988, Thomas says.

“The flooded river destroyed tracks and fences and everything else in its path.

“We’ve been slowly getting everything restored on-farm, as much as the mortgage allows, and the gift of these fence posts and wire is really appreciated.”

Tologa Bay farmer Patch Murphy used the same word – “fantastic” – to describe the Farmers Community Connect day.

Gabrielle cost him 4km of fencing from a forestry slash-laden and swollen river, not to mention all the slips.

The RRT and Federated Farmers teams had everything going to clockwork at the Friday event, Murphy says.

“It was very well-run and organised, and everyone was very positive.”

Federated Farmers national board member Toby Williams, a Gisborne farmer himself, says he was blown away by the “ruthless efficiency” of the RRT volunteers.

“There was $700,000 worth of posts and wire to distribute, and only two of the 250 approved recipients didn’t show up.

“When we looked at doing this ourselves, we reckoned it was going to take us five weeks to give everybody the gear. The RRT achieved it in five golden hours.

“They got everyone organised, corralled and loaded. They even had a compressor to pump up tyres feeling the weight,” Williams says.

RRT is a not-for-profit organisation established and run by the Brethren Christian Church. They’ve run community and emergency response events all around New Zealand and the rest of the globe.

Having seen them in action, Williams is keen for Federated Farmers to work with them again in the wake of adverse events.

“Hopefully this is the start of an enduring partnership between Feds and RRT. When the task is helping farmers get back on their feet, you couldn’t hope for a better organisation to work alongside.”

No argument from Federated

Farmers adverse events manager Ben Moore.

“They were brilliant,” he says.

With the first distribution of fence posts to cyclone-impacted Gisborne region farmers last year, four events were needed to give out 100,000 posts.

This time it was 49,000 posts –8000 donated by RRT – in just one day.

RRT also put on burgers, hash browns and barista coffee.

“It was heartwarming to see farmers catching up. When you’re flat tack you might not see each other for ages,” Moore says.

“Some of these guys came from as far as Tikitiki, 145kms away. A few people organised trucks to pick up neighbours on the way.”

With MPI’s On-Farm Support, RST, the Eastland rescue helicopter service, Farming Women Tairāwhiti and Aratu Forests giving away native seedlings also present, “anyone with questions about recovery support could get answers”.

Sponsors Woolworths NZ, Permapine, BSN Fittings and Larsen

Sawmilling also helped make the day possible.

For Karen McLanachan, who with husband Ken runs farming properties on a river boundary on the Gisborne Flats, and on steeper land off Bushy Knoll Rd, the practical help is appreciated.

Offers of cups of tea and chats after Gabrielle smashed their farm operation were nice, she says, but the equipment donations and volunteer help that Federated Farmers pulled together is what makes a real difference.

Some leeway from suppliers on repayment periods can also help.

“We need to go about rebuilding and restoring in a constructive way.

“You’ve got to talk to your bank manager, talk to Ravensdown in our case, and other businesses you deal with. Ask them is there something they can do to alleviate what we see as a short-term problem,” McLanachan says.

“If we can all do a little bit, we’re not in the predicament we thought we were.”

LIKE CLOCKWORK: Loading up 49,000 posts and other gear onto the vehicles of 250 Gisborne farmers is a big task, but it all went smoothly.
Photos: Cinema East

Waihaha Te Putu Road

A World of Opportunities

Look what’s on offer here on the Western Bays of Taupo; 440ha of predominately ver y easy rolling land close to the shores of the magical Lake Taupo. With a long histor y of producing top stock , this easily managed property also represents an enviable locality to live in, particularly if you enjoy hunting or fishing Well fenced and watered with a good range of supporting infrastructure you’ll also be impressed with the nearly 50ha of established pine tree plantations. Add in 9,500 NDA’s and you’ve got a compelling “must view” proposition in front of you. With my clients committed to a time-based sale I look for ward to meeting with you soon. Call me today for an appointment to view

Tender Friday 20th December 12:00pm (unless sold prior) View by appointment www.harcourts.co.nz/ML8644

Kevin Deane M 021 970 902

440ha
Wairoa 2083 Cricklewood Road, Raupunga
Te Horo 96 Arcus Road

PAPAMOA, BAY OF PLENTY 250 Bell Road

Fishing or Surfing Minutes after Milking?

113ha dairy farm on one title

38ASHB shed with GEA plant (replaced 2018)

Currently milking 750 cows utilising additional lease land, 5yr avg production 334,146kg MS

• 450 cow feedpad with concrete supplement bunkers

Modern effluent system, spread via travelling irrigators

Three dwellings plus numerous sheds

• Only minutes away from beaches, boat ramps, shops and cafes

Phone or email for a full Information Memorandum

GST (if any) (Unless Sold Prior)

3.00pm

12 December

11-1.00pm Wed 4 December and By Appointment

Tim Gallagher

M 027 801 2888

E tim.gallagher@pggwrightson.co nz

M 027 223 3366 David McLaren

E dmclaren@pggwrightson.co nz

Situated on

WAIPUKURAU, CHB 160 Ashley Clinton Road

Middle Hills

Middle Hills is an iconic finishing farm in Central Hawke’s Bay. Held in four titles, the property comprises flat to very easy rolling land. Subdivided into 74 main paddocks with extensive lanes Fully reticulated from three bores spread across the farm. Large areas suitable for arable cropping. Farming infrastructure comprises four stand woolshed a workshop, several implement sheds, hay barns, covered sheep yards, extensive cattle yards Two homes. Significant inputs over recent years allow the finishing of lambs, steers and bulls. An outstanding property.

pggwre.co.nz/HAS40395

(if any) Closes 4.00pm, Thursday 12 December Hastings VIEW By Appointment Only

DOLOMITE

GOATS WANTED

GOATS WANTED. All weights. All breeds. Prompt service. Payment on pick up. My on farm prices will not be beaten. Phone David Hutchings 07 895 8845 or 0274 519 249. Feral goats mustered on a 50/50 share basis.

HORTICULTURE

NZ KELP. FRESH, wild ocean harvested giant kelp. The world’s richest source of natural iodine. Dried and milled for use in agriculture and horticulture. Growth promotant / stock health food. As seen on Country Calendar. Orders to: 03 322 6115 or info@nzkelp.co.nz

HUNTING ACCESS WANTED

ON FARM LAMB SALE 5th DECEMBER 2024 – 2pm START

A/C BELMONT STATION

Mike & Jane Osborne

Sale at Flock Hill Property Bluff Road, Kimbolton

COMPRISING:

4000 Terminal Undrafted M/S Lambs (South Suffolk & Poll Dorset Bred) 2000 Shorn Grazing Ewes

Great opportunity to purchase undrafted terminal hill country lambs.

NZFAP & ABF accredited

2% rebate offered by prior arrangement

Far away in the tropical waters of the Caribbean, two prawns were swimming around in the sea - one called Justin and the other called Christian.

The prawns were constantly being harassed and threatened by sharks that inhabited the area. Finally one day Justin said to Christian, “I’m fed up with being a prawn, I wish I was a shark, then I wouldn’t have any worries about being eaten.”

A large mysterious cod appeared and said, “Your wish is granted” and lo and behold, Justin turned into a shark.

Horrified, Christian immediately swam away, afraid of being eaten by his old mate.

Time passed (as it invariably does) and Justin found life as a shark boring and lonely. All his old mates simply swam away whenever he came close to them. Justin didn’t realize that his new menacing appearance was the cause of his sad plight.

While swimming alone one day he saw the mysterious cod again and he thought perhaps the mysterious fish could change him back into a prawn.

CARRFIELDS LIVESTOCK AGENT: Cam Waugh 027 480 0898 Ben Wright 027 241 4570

He approached the cod and begged to be changed back, and, lo and behold, he found himself turned back into a prawn.

for a quote.

RETIRED FARMER WANTS hunting access to hunt deer etc. Prepared to pay a fair rate and cull pests as well. Well experienced but getting longer in the tooth. Based in Rotorua but will travel to cover central North Island and East Coast or King Country. Phone Dave 027 483 9602.

HIGH PRESSURE WATER PUMPS, suitable on high headlifts. Low energy usage for single/3-phase motors, waterwheel and turbine drives. Low maintenance costs and easy to service. Enquiries phone 04 526 4415, email sales@hydra-cell.co.nz

RAMS FOR SALE

YARDLINK

Join us for this 100% Online SALEYARD sale Wednesday, 11th December, starting 11am

ENTRIES TO DATE

• 12 x Autumn born Fsn/FsnX R2 steers, approx. 450kg

• 10 x Autumn born Purebred Speckle Park weaner steers, approx. 250kg

• Approx. 40x WF weaner heifers, 100kg+

• Approx. 20x Speckle Park/Fsn weaner heifers, 100kg+

Confirmed tallies, weights and photos for all lines will be available on BIDR by 10/12/2024

ENTRIES STILL BEING TAKEN CONTACT

With tears of joy in his tiny little eyes Justin swam back to his friends and bought them all a cocktail. (Editor’s note: The punch line does not involve a prawn cocktail - it’s much worse).

Looking around the gathering at the reef he realized he couldn’t see his old pal.

“Where’s Christian?” he asked.

“He’s at home, still distraught that his best friend changed sides to the enemy & became a shark”, came the reply.

Eager to put things right again and end the mutual pain and torture, he set off to Christian’s abode. As he opened the coral gate memories came flooding back.

He banged on the door and shouted,”It’s me, Justin, your old friend, come out and see me again.”

Christian replied, “No way man, you’ll eat me. You’re now a shark, the enemy, and I’ll not be tricked into being your dinner.”

Justin cried back “No, I’m not. That was the old me. I’ve changed.”

“I found Cod. I’m a prawn again, Christian!”

GARDENER/ CARETAKER AVAILABLE BROAD GARDENING and property experience with farming and hort background. Now semiretired. Hours to suit you. Prefer with accommodation. Phone 027 491 7491.

WILTSHIRES-ARVIDSON. Self shearing sheep. No1 for Facial Eczema. David 027 2771 556.

SAWN SHED TIMBER including Black Maire. Matai, Totara and Rimu etc. Also buying salvaged native logs. Phone Richard Uren. NZ Native Timber Supplies. Phone 027 688 2954. WANTED TO BUY CHRISTMAS SPECIAL Buy $200 + grab a FREE 2pr Xmas socks $50 Worth www.thesocklady.co.nz

STEWART CRUICKSHANK 027 2705288

For a full list of services & current listings check out our website at www.linklivestock.co.nz

Here at Farmers Weekly we get some pretty funny contributions to our Sale Talk joke from you avid readers, and we’re keen to hear more! If you’ve got a joke you want to share with the farming community (it must be something you’d share with your grandmother...) then email us at: saletalk@agrihq.co.nz with Sale Talk in the subject line and we’ll print it and credit it to you. Conditions apply

FOR SALE BY TENDER – HIGH PERFORMING ELK HERD MONTALTO ELK - ESTABLISHED IN 1984

John & Suzanne Bartholomew 883 Lower Downs Road, RD 8, Ashburton Comprising:

• 10 Mixed Age Sire Bulls (3 - 9 years)

• 226 Mixed Age Elk Bulls (2 - 10 years)

• 40 Ylg Elk Bulls (1 year)

• 98 Mixed Age Cows (2 - 12 years)

35 Ylg Elk Cows (1 year) Approx 80 Mixed Sex Weaner Deer (March 2025 weaning)

To be sold as a complete dispersal (going concern)

For tender document please email Murray.Coutts@pggwrightson.co.nz

Tenders will close at 4pm on Thursday 12 December 2024

Tenders are to be delivered to PGG Wrightson, 325 Hilton Highway, Timaru, 7910 in a sealed envelope stating Montalto Elk Tender or emailed to jhiggins@pggwrightson.co.nz

Subject: Montalto Elk Tender

Viewing will be by arrangement from Sunday 1 December onwards

Enquiries:

Murray Coutts (PGW ) 027 403 9377 | John & Suzanne Bartholomew ( Vendor) 027 490 5782

top 10 All Breeds for NZ )

cows contracted to LIC for 2011 matings to calve from 16-7-12, 6.5 weeks Jersey and Kiwi cross

Estimated to be 420 cows after non pregnant, culls, older cows & 5% rejection Production last season 347kgs ms/cow, 1000kgs ms/ha, on rolling to steeper contoured farm, no meal, palm kernel or maize

Herd For Sale

• 100 Jersey & 10 Ayrshire MA Cows

Complete herd, BW 230, PW 235 RA 91%, 400 kg MS, low cell count.

replacement stock also available

DtC from 20-7-25, 6 weeks AB, well bred, owner milked 28 years, TB C10, Lepto & BVD vacc, 1st June 2025 Delivery.

Outstanding genetics & potential to be one of countries leading suppliers of Genetics to industry for years to come. Full details

Wanted To Buy

• 30 Autumn Calving Pedigree Holstein-Friesian Cows.

to the sole marketing agents:

Enquiries to:

LA-MAC, CAMLA & LOCHAIRE

ON FARM RAM SALE

WEDNESDAY 11TH DECEMBER

39 Ahuriri Road, Tai Tapu Viewing from 11am, Sale 1pm

Further

027 208 3071

Brian Robinson Phone 0272 410 051

Robinson BRLL 410051 or 07 8583132

b.robinson1@xtra.co.nz

Falkner Marketing Service 482 8771 or 07 846 4491

Check out Poll Dorset NZ on Facebook nzsheep.co.nz/poll-dorset-breeders

Bob Davidson (RLL) 027 473 0806

STONEYLEA RAM SALE

FRIDAY 13TH DECEMBER

A/c Adams Partnership, Christchurch Sale at Canterbury Park Saleyards Viewing from 11am, Sale 1pm

Markets

Ram prices, clearances bring smiles

Animals presenting ‘extremely well’ after good winter and shedding sheep drawing interest.

Hugh Stringleman MARKETS Livestock

SPRING ram sales in the upper North Island have gone very well and vendors have been happy with their results, PGG Wrightson auctioneer Cam Heggie says.

“Because of the reduction in ewe numbers, the clearances in sales might have been some concern, but they have been really good and the average prices have been up on previous years.

“Rams have presented extremely well after good weather conditions over the winter.

“The shedding sheep have found a niche and buyers have been prepared to pay well on good data and structure.”

Raupuha Perendale stud, at Mahoenui and owned by Russell and Mavis Proffit, made the top price of $18,000 for a yearling ram, 231075, sold to Andrew Savage, St Ledger, Gisborne.

Transfer rams were also sold by Raupuha, at $10,000 twice and $3000.

There was a full clearance of 49 Perendales, averaging $2359. Also

sold were 50 of 50 Romdales at $1776, 55 of 55 Suftex at $1137 and 22 of 25 Suffolks at $1355.

Top of the Romdales was $5000, paid by Shian Angus at Taumarunui.

Alex and Delwyn Clements, Purua, Northland, sold 38 of 46 Manu Poll Dorset rams with an average price of $1014 and a top of $2500.

The Rolling Rock Poll Dorsets at Te Akau averaged $1420 over 46 sold out of 50, and the Meaty Markers (Poll Dorset-South Suffolk) sold on average at $1528, for a full clearance of 32 rams.

Top prices were $4100 and $2700 respectively and the averages were up on last year.

The Ipurua Wiltshires, at Aria in King Country, sold 48 of 59 rams, averaged $1245 and had a top price of $2300.

On the same day Waterfields Wiltshires sold all 15 rams and averaged $2046 with a top of $3100.

Arvidson Wiltshires, Taupō, sold 72 of 103 offered, with plenty of options for all buyers, and averaged $1916, with a top price of $5300 paid twice.

Mt Cass Wiltshires, North Canterbury, sold 56 of 73 offered

Proudly sponsored by

with an average of $1691 and $34000 paid twice, by Chris Ensor of Richmond Farm and Tony Hall of Waikuku.

Earlier in November the North Island Perendale ram sale at Te Kuiti set a top price of $2500 twice, sold to Mana and to Triple Farms, with an average of $1200 for 40 sold out of 48.

Triple Farms Genetics, Taumarunui, sold 24 of 30 Coopworths, ex Ashgrove, averaging $1387 with a top of $2500, plus 13 of 14 Coopdales, averaging $1046 and 22 of 25 Suftex, averaging $1191.

Waimai Romneys, Te Akau, had a big sale of 140 out of 150 offered, setting an average of $2306 and a top price of $10,000 twice paid by Blair Robertson and Headwaters.

On the west coast of the North Island, Kate Broadbent at Nikau Coopworths, Waikaretu, had a full

clearance of 77 rams, averaging $2380 with a top of $4000 paid by a commercial sheep farmer.

Kaahu Genetics, Whakamaru, sold Kaahu White and White and Nudie-cross rams with an average of $3170 for the 89 offered and sold. Top price was $10,000.

Paparata Elite Romney, Tatu

Ohura, had a full clearance of 116 and averaged $1,576, with a top of $3,600.

Ram sales in the south of the North Island and in South Island will continue during December and January and will be covered in the January 13 issue of Farmers Weekly.

HIGHEST: Russell and Mavis Proffit with auctioneer Cam Heggie, PGG Wrightson, and the top-priced ram sold so far this year.
Photo Rochelle Herlihy
RELAXED: Northland’s Manu stud Poll Dorset rams before sale, including #168, who made the top price of $2500 for the Clements family.
Photo Alex Clements

Cattle Sheep Deer

Weekly saleyard results

These weekly saleyard results are collated by the AgriHQ LivestockEye team. Cattle weights and prices are averages and sheep prices are ranges. For more detailed results and analysis subscribe to your selection of LivestockEye reports. Scan the QR code or visit www.agrihq.co.nz/livestock-reports

Kaikohe | November 27 | 680 cattle

Aut-born weaner dairy-beef steers, 290kg 1300

Aut-born weaner dairy-beef steers, 140kg 1025

Aut-born weaner exotic-beef bulls, 285kg 1250

Weaner dairy-beef steers, 120kg 875

Weaner Friesian bulls, 105kg 670

Weaner dairy-beef heifers, 120kg 650

Wellsford | November 25 | 1019 cattle

Aut-born weaner dairy-beef steers, 180kg

Aut-born weaner Friesian bulls, 165kg

Aut-born weaner dairy-beef heifers, 175kg

Weaner dairy-beef steers, 115kg

Weaner Friesian bulls, 110kg

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or $/hd

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Make informed livestock trading decisions with AgriHQ. Track key saleyard, paddock and slaughter prices, market indicators, and forecast prices through a suite of reports. Customise your selection and access everything in one convenient platform: myAgriHQ.

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HERE COME
LAMBS: On-farm sales are now underway in the South Island, and
lamb numbers have also increased at the saleyards. These Southdown-cross lambs from Marlborough sold for $85 at Canterbury Park last
Photo: Stu Uren, PGG Wrightson

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TERRIFIC TEXELS: These Texel-cross lambs from North Canterbury sold in the prime pens at Canterbury Park and made $178. Photo: Stu Uren, PGG Wrightson

Weather

Springing ahead into summer’s outlook

Philip Duncan NEWS Weather

EVEN if we love what we do for a living, we all have that one job we want to avoid and put off.

As a weather forecaster, the job I dread doing each month is the climate/monthly outlook. It’s not only difficult, but all the hard work in the world can be undone with one single low- or high-pressure system.

New Zealand’s location on Earth makes it especially hard to lock in monthly or seasonal forecasts due to the extremely chaotic nature of weather around the Roaring Forties.

On top of that we’re two fairly small mountainous islands in the largest ocean on Earth.

This makes long-range forecasting notoriously difficult and often not as clear cut as we’d all like.

NIWA, along with other government forecasters, has been talking about La Niña since the start of this year. But 2024 is almost done and still no La

Niña – so what are we facing this summer?

Let me take you through my three steps of deciphering the most likely weather pattern

New Zealand will be seeing in December and into January (beyond that is truly guesswork and even the world’s most accurate forecasters get this wrong on a consistent basis).

We’re two fairly small mountainous islands in the largest ocean on Earth.

1) Weather Models

(Forecast for the next 15 days)

We see plenty of high pressure over the Tasman Sea area, north of NZ, and some highs crossing NZ too.

This placement of high pressure encourages more westerly-driven weather, with bursts of colder air as those highs approach us, and warmer, subtropical air as they depart.

The tropics does have some

Personally choose the opportunity and the security asset

Fixed return of 10-11%p.a. pre-tax paid monthly

Minimum investment of $100,000

investment of $10,000

energy, mostly heavy rain from Fiji to the Cooks.

2) Global Climate Models (What are government forecasters saying?)

NIWA has been focused on La Niña all year, with its goalposts constantly shifting.

United States forecasters are also pushing La Niña a lot, but Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) remains skeptical.

“While some have displayed La Niña-like signals over recent months, a consistent and sustained shift in the atmosphere has not been observed.

“Ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have started to warm in recent weeks, away from the La Niña threshold, although they are still cooler than the historical average,” says BoM.

3) Verified Weather

(What has NZ recently received?)

The tropics remain storm free, but increasingly wet around Fiji – and worth noting Australia is becoming much busier with downpours.

NEUTRAL: What respected global forecasters are saying about the trend into La Niña or El Niño in the coming months. We’re still in neutral –where we’ve been since April – by the looks of it.

Likely Outlook:

Late-spring-like weather will continue off and on in December with shortlived regular cold fronts moving into the South Island keeping the West Coast wet but eastern NZ and the top of the North Island drier than normal. If La Niña is announced it’s still highly questionable if it will even affect NZ’s weather. Wild card: Surprise rainmakers are possible over the Tasman Sea or exiting Australia and could bring NZ rain relief. For now, storms over the Southern Ocean are fuelling NZ’s westerly driven weather pattern going into December.

Check out our ClimateWatch December video update at RuralWeather.co.nz, out Monday PM.

Papatoetoe, Auckland Manurewa, Auckland Papakura, Auckland

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