8 CCC submissions flood in Vol 19 No 13, April 5, 2021
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Red meat retreat? Neal Wallace
T
neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz
HIS year’s prime lamb production is headed to be the lowest on record, reflecting low farmer confidence, and could result in fewer ewe numbers, Beef + Lamb NZ (B+LNZ) is warning. The number of lambs likely to be processed this season is estimated at 18.2 million, a drop of 4.5%, or 900,000, compared to 2019-20, with total export production of 347,600 tonnes bone-in.
Farm gate prices have eased from recent high levels, farmers are wary of the volatility of weather events and environmental regulation is weighing heavily on morale. B+LNZ “This will be the lowest lamb production on record. Confidence in the industry is subdued,” the B+LNZ report said. “Farm gate prices have eased from recent high levels,
farmers are wary of the volatility of weather events and environmental regulation is weighing heavily on morale. Forestry is also spreading into sheep farming land. “All of these factors will weigh on future expansion of breeding ewe numbers.” Despite this, B+LNZ says the industry handled a difficult 2020 with drought and covid-19. “Resilience and adaptability were evident across the entire New Zealand sheep and beef supply chain,” the report said. According to B+LNZ kill figures up to March 6, 9.6m lambs had been killed, with the South Island kill 3.9% ahead of the same stage last year and the North Island 4.5% behind. The tally overall was 0.5% behind a year earlier. This season’s kill is estimated at 18.2m from a spring lamb crop of 22.9m lambs, which was down 1.2%, or 300,000, from the previous spring. The key driver of the decline in lambs born was last summer’s drought on the North Island’s East Coast, which underpinned a 4.8% drop in North Island lambs born. The number of lambs tailed in the South Island was up 1.6%. This year’s mutton kill is 20.8% ahead, but the number of adult sheep processed is expected to be 3.7% lower than 2019-20. B+LNZ chief economist Andrew Burtt is confident this year’s forecast kill is accurate and that stock are still on farms. “All the evidence we’ve seen,
GREAT DAY OUT: Open farm visitors were treated to vege harvesting, bush tours, petting zoos, working dog demonstrations, conservation walks, soil experiments and lots of good old-school fun.
Kiwis flock to Open Farms AN ESTIMATED 2500 Kiwis visited 37 farms on March 21, as part of New Zealand’s second national open farm day initiative Open Farms. Farms of all types across the country participated. From sheep and beef stations in the Hawke’s Bay to Canterbury dairy farms, Auckland permaculture
the lamb crop surveys and macro level reconciliations point to the lambs still being there,” Burtt said. The report warns the covid-19 pandemic and an unfavourable exchange rate will erode more than $1 billion off this season’s export returns from beef, veal and sheepmeat compared to last year. B+LNZ’s mid-season report calculates the NZ$-US$ exchange
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growers, mushroom makers and beekeepers, to name a few. “It was great to see farmers designing activities to help Kiwis touch, feel and taste their way back into food and farming,” Open Farms founder Daniel Eb said. “We saw vege harvesting, bush tours, petting zoos,
rate is trading 13% higher than 2019-20, reducing red meat export receipts to an estimated $7.4b this year, $1.1b less than 2019-20. Export lamb receipts are estimated at $2.9b, 14% lower than in 2019-20, driven by a 4.4% decline in production and a 10% drop in average export value. High-value lamb cuts have been hit hard by weak demand from the foodservice sector, with
working dog demonstrations, conservation walks, soil experiments and lots of good old-school fun.” While the recent covid lockdown delay had impacted the number of events, visitor interest and turnout exceeded expectations, with two-thirds of events fully booked.
growth in retail demand not sufficient to compensate. “On the positive side, demand from China was strong for both lamb and mutton in the first quarter of the season,” the report said. Based on an exchange rate of US72c, the average lamb price is forecast at 643c/kg for 2020-21,
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