Farmers Weekly NZ June 17 2019

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Best trade/specialist publication and website – Voyager Media Awards 2019

Vol 18 No 23, June 17, 2019

Emptiness worries meat man

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Outlook is rosy Luke Chivers and Stephen Bell

I

N A global environment characterised by increasing uncertainty the primary sectors are continuing to deliver, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor says. Joined by 100 farmers and industry leaders at the National Fieldays O’Connor launched the latest Situation and Outlook report for Primary Industries (SOPI) produced by MPI. “It’s great news across the sector with headline figures showing continued growth.” Agricultural exports have risen $7.5 billion in the last two years but returns are expected to soften his year before growing again, O’Connor said. Export returns for primary produce in the year to June 30 are expected to be $45.7b. The report also predicts a slight fall in the coming year before returns start climbing again, to reach $48.5b in 2023. “Horticulture has continued to be the star performer with its focus on the customer resulting in its success,” O’Connor said. “The meat sector is solid and is likely to continue that way given the challenges in China with their pork production. “We’re also seeing aquaculture grow which is a real positive. “But farmers can’t assume

those commodity prices will continue to stay up unless we coordinate and collaborate our sales efforts. “And farmers must still work hard to make sure they get a good profit.” Despite economic and political uncertainty affecting world markets, New Zealand’s returns have remained solid and though there is continuing risk it is offset to some extent by the weak dollar. “This export performance by NZ’s primary sector producers is all the more impressive considering the weakening global economic environment and the high degree of uncertainty creating tensions across international markets,” MPI director-general Ray Smith said. However, given the uncertain international backdrop and despite strong export performance the downside risks to the forecast are heightened over the next few years. Production and returns are expected to fall slightly in the next year before resuming moderate momentum in the medium term in meat, dairy and horticulture. Sustained Chinese and southeast Asian demand is supporting strong prices and the weak dollar is expected to

CHALLENGING: Primary industry export revenue is expected to jump by more than 7% this year to $45.6 billion, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor told industry leaders at the National Fieldays when he attended with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

We are moving into challenging economic environments and trade is being kicked around like a football. Damien O’Connor Agriculture Minister continue supporting export returns. “Strength in prices supported by an increasing proportion of higher-value products is expected

to sustain growth in dairy export revenue despite constraints on milk production growth,” Smith said. “NZ’s current run of export success over the past two years has occurred despite a rising sense of uncertainty in global markets. “This is in part because the products we trade in haven’t been directly affected so are and in part because the NZ dollar has fallen over the past two years. “However, these issues do provide an increasingly uncertain backdrop to the otherwise positive outlook.” The clouds include slowing

global economic growth expectations, rising protectionist sentiment and uncertainty caused by Brexit, United States-China trade tensions and outbreaks of African swine fever. But the bigger concern for NZ is their potential impact on consumer demand in Britain, America and China. “We are moving into challenging economic environments and trade is being kicked around like a football,” O’Connor said. “Our sector shouldn’t assume anything and will need to

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